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Bol. Conj. Nerint | Porto Alegre | v.1 n.1 | p. 1-95 | jul/2016 | ISSN: XXXX-XXXX
SUMRIO
A TRANSIO POLTICA DE MIANMAR: DISPUTAS INTERNAS E INTERESSES
05
EXTERNOS
15
25
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SUMMARY
THE POLITICAL TRANSITION IN MYANMAR: INTERNAL DISPUTES AND FOREIGN
51
INTERESTS
INTERNAL REFORMS IN
61
72
82
MAIN DEVELOPMENTS AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VIENNA (2015) AND GENEVA
III (2016) MEETINGS
Douglas de Quadros Rocha, Isabela Souza Julio, Patrcia Graeff Machry
Bol. Conj. Nerint | Porto Alegre | v.1 n.1 | p. 1-95 | jul/2016 | ISSN: XXXX-XXXX
Doutorando e Mestre em Estudos Estratgicos Internacionais pela Universidade Federal do Rio Grande
do Sul (UFRGS). Contato: erik_ribeiro@yahoo.com.br
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Breve histrico
Mianmar
localiza-se
numa
verdadeira encruzilhada da sia, rodeada
pelo subcontinente indiano, pela China e
pelo Sudeste Asitico. Pas de histria e
cultura ricas, foi colonizado pelo Imprio
Britnico no Sculo XIX, conquistando
sua independncia em 1948. A antiga
Birmnia sofreu com ameaas externas5,
presses separatistas e cises entre as
elites governantes. Aps a primeira
dcada de um regime democrtico, o
pas teve um governo militar transitrio
(1958-1960) e a instabilidade culminou
num golpe de Estado organizado pelas
elites militares em 1962. O novo regime
buscava uma sntese entre as tradies
nacionais e o socialismo reformista,
rejeitando qualquer via revolucionria
(Taylor, 2009).
O caminho para a
democratizao
A situao internacional em 1990
passava por intensas transformaes
sistmicas, decorrentes da normalizao
das relaes EUA-URSS e da queda
progressiva dos socialismos no Leste
Europeu. A Terceira Onda de
democratizaes tambm j atingia boa
parte do Terceiro Mundo e desmantelava
os antigos arranjos polticos locais
(Huntington, 1991). Gene Sharp (1993),
professor de Dartmouth, prontamente
elaborou um manual de derrubada no
violenta de regimes ditatoriais tendo a
Birmnia como modelo e inspirao.
Posteriormente, esta mesma obra
influenciaria as Revolues Coloridas no
antigo espao sovitico e as revoltas
rabes de 2011.
Aps
diversas
dificuldades
econmicas e polticas, o regime
socialista ruiu em 1988. Analogamente
aos eventos da Praa de Tiananmen (na
China), protestos de estudantes foram
reprimidos e resultaram em intensa
presso internacional. O governo militar
provisrio aceitou realizar eleies em
1990, onde acabou previsivelmente
derrotado pela NLD.
Podemos citar, especialmente, a postura revolucionria da China nas dcadas de 1950 e 1960 e o apoio
da CIA estadunidense ao Exrcito do Kuomintang, estacionado na Birmnia desde a derrota na Guerra Civil
Chinesa. Posteriormente, os lderes destas foras nacionalistas chinesas passaram a gerir um lucrativo
negcio de trfico de herona no norte do pas.
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Inicialmente,
importante
afastar-se de anlises maniquestas,
geralmente jornalsticas, acerca dos
interesses em jogo na transio poltica
de Mianmar. No se trata simplesmente
de uma elite militar repressora versus
novas elites civis democratas. No plano
interno, h correntes conservadoras
(linha dura) e pragmticas entre os
militares. Da mesma forma, as elites civis
se dividem entre aquelas reformistas e
outras liberais radicais associadas a
interesses externos. Ainda, existem
dezenas
de
partidos
polticos
representantes de grupos tnicos
minoritrios de Mianmar, que somam um
tero da populao. Em alguns casos,
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Quaisquer reformas profundas na Constituio de 2008 s podem ser feitas com a aprovao de 75% do
Parlamento. Como os militares possuem 25% dos assentos, bastaria apenas mais um voto entre os
parlamentares eleitos para barrar mudanas no desejadas.
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Consideraes finais
A poltica em Mianmar passa por
um histrico processo de transio, que
dever produzir novos vencedores e
perdedores. Precisamente por sua
singularidade, se torna difcil prever
resultados com alto grau de certeza. Por
um lado, parece claro que as elites
militares facilitaram a abertura poltica,
seja por razes de ordem interna ou
externa. No entanto, ao iniciar uma
transio deste tipo, abriram espao para
processos que no esto mais sob seu
controle.
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Referncias
Beukel, Erik. ASEAN and ARF in East Asias Security Architecture: The role of Norms and Powers.
Copenhagen: Danish Institute of International Studies Report, 2008.
Callahan, Mary and David Steinberg. Drivers of Political Change in Post-Junta, Constitutional Burma.
Washington: USAID, 2012.
Charney, Michael W. A History of Modern Burma. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Ciorciari, John David. The Balance of Great-Power Influence in Contemporary Southeast Asia. International
Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Oxford, v. 9, n. 1, p. 157-196, Oxford University, 2009.
Egreteau, Renaud and Larry Jagan. Soldiers and diplomacy in Burma: understanding the foreign relations of
the Burmese praetorian state. Singapore: IRASEC-NUS Press, 2013.
Haacke, Jrgen. Myanmar: now a site for SinoUS geopolitical competition? IDEAS reports, ed. SR015.
London, London School of Economics, 2012.
Huntington, S. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of
Oklahoma Press, 1991.
Lintner, Bertil. Great Game East: India, China and the Struggle for Asia's Most Volatile Frontier. Harper Collins
India, 2012.
Ribeiro, Erik H. A rivalidade e a cooperao nas relaes China-ndia: o
contexto asitico e o caso de Mianmar. Dissertao. PPGEEI/UFRGS, Porto Alegre, 2015.
Sharp, Gene. From Dictatorship to Democracy: A Conceptual Framework for Liberation. Boston: Albert
Einstein Institution, 1993.
Steinberg, David and Hongwei Fan. Modern China-Myanmar Relations: Dilemmas of Mutual Dependence.
Copenhagen: NIAS, 2012.
Steinberg, David. Aung San Suu Kyi and U.S. Policy toward Burma/Myanmar. Journal of Current Southeast
Asian Affairs, v. 29, n. 3, p. 35-59, 2010.
Taylor, Robert H. The State in Myanmar. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2009.
Thant Myint-U. Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia. New York: Farrar, Straus
and Giroux, 2011.
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Apresentao
Professor de Relaes Internacionais do Centro Universitrio Ritter dos Reis. Doutorando e Mestre em
Estudos Estratgicos Internacionais pela UFRGS. Email: pvbrittes@gmail.com.
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No obstante, o anncio da
realizao do teste foi apenas o incio de
uma srie de eventos que ampliaram as
tenses no Leste Asitico e desafiam o
equilbrio regional. Em fevereiro, a Coreia
do Norte anunciou o lanamento de um
satlite (Kwangmyongsong-4), com o
dobro do tamanho do que havia sido
lanado em 2012. Mais recentemente,
em abril, o pas comunista testou msseis
balsticos a partir de submarinos. Esse
ltimo teste evidencia a procura em
desenvolver a capacidade de lanar
msseis balsticos intercontinentais a
partir de distintas plataformas. Como
resposta a esses eventos, o Conselho de
Segurana das Naes Unidas aprovou
uma nova rodada de sanes contra a
Coreia do Norte, endossada tambm pela
China. Na Coreia do Sul, avanaram as
negociaes acerca da instalao de um
escudo antimsseis mvel - THAAD
(Terminal High Altitude Area Defense)9 em parceria com os EUA. Cabe destacar
que a instalao do THAAD ameaa os
interesses chineses e russos na regio,
tanto que ambos pases firmaram
posio contrria instalao por temer
o THAAD limite a capacidade missilstica
dos dois pases. Por fim, em maro
iniciaram os exerccios militares na
Pennsula Coreana entre EUA e Coreia do
Sul. Os exerccios Foal Eagle e Key
Resolve de 2016 foram os maiores
realizados at ento. Cerca de 300 mil
soldados sul-coreanos e 17 mil
estadunidenses participaram desses
exerccios que tm como objetivo simular
ataques anfbios e em terra na pennsula.
No dia 8 de julho de 2016, Estados Unidos e Coreia do Sul anunciaram a instalao do Sistema THAAD
na pennsula. Segundo o anncio, a instalao do sistema atende necessidade responder aos avanos
do programa balstico norte-coreano.
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A colonizao japonesa e a
subsequente diviso da pennsula em
virtude da ocupao das foras
soviticas
e
estadunidenses
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Cabe
ressaltar
que
o
desenvolvimento de armas nucleares
para a Coreia do Norte apresenta uma
dupla funo. De um lado, pode vir a
prover capacidade de dissuaso contra
os inimigos externos; embora, essa
capacidade ainda seja passvel de
discusso frente capacidade de defesa
anti-msseis de Coreia de Sul e Japo. De
outro, representam a face moderna do
pas e, portanto, ampliam a legitimidade
interna do regime (Ahn 2011). Em parte,
pode-se dizer, que se constitui como
elemento que contribui para a resilincia
do pas frente s dificuldades
enfrentadas nas ltimas dcadas.
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No entanto, as experincias
recentes ocorridas de derrubada ou
ameaa de deposio de regimes
considerados prias, tanto no Iraque
(2003), na Lbia (2011) quanto na Sria
(2011) acabaram por reforar o
entendimento norte-coreano de que
renunciar ao programa nuclear tornaria o
pas vulnervel. Assim, no de se
esperar um recuo do governo nortecoreano quanto ao avano do programa
nuclear e balstico.
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um
processo
cujos
desdobramentos ainda so imprevisveis.
Assim, a evoluo da recomposio
poltica interna e o avano da
modernizao econmica na Coreia do
Norte
so
indicadores
bastante
relevantes para que se trace um cenrio
mais preciso da regio.
Consideraes Finais
A anlise da situao na
pennsula coreana no parece indicar
que possa ocorrer uma grande inflexo
no curto prazo. Entretanto, tendo em
vista que h um processo de
modernizao em curso na Coreia do
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Referncias
Ahn, Mun Suk. 2011. "What Is The Root Cause Of The North Korean Nuclear Program?". Asian Affairs: An
American Review 38 (4): 175-187. doi:10.1080/00927678.2011.604287.
Bleiker, Roland. 2005. Divided Korea. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press.
Cha, Victor D. 2012. The Impossible State. New York: Ecco.
Chanlett-Avery, Emma, Ian E. Rinehart, and Mary Beth D. Nikitin. 2016. North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear
Diplomacy, And Internal Situation. Washington: Congressional Research Service.
Cordesman, Anthony H and Ashley Hess. 2013. The Evolving Military Balance In The Korean Peninsula And
Northeast Asia. Washington: Center for Strategic and International studies.
Cumings, Bruce. 2010. The Korean War. New York: Modern Library.
Cumings, Bruce. 2004. North Korea: Another Country. New York: The New Press.
Cumings, Bruce. 2015. "The North Korea That Can Say No". Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists.
http://thebulletin.org/north-korea-can-say-no9048.
Curtis, Gerald. 2014. Abes Game Plan On North Korea. Washington: Center for Strategic & International
Studies.
Lankov,
Andrei.
2014.
"Reforming
North
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/11/reforming-north-korea20141117121917871925.html.
Korea". Al
Jazeera.
Lee,
Youkyung.
2016.
"South
Korea's
Central
Bank
Cuts
Growth
Forecast". AP.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/88132d26e5c5479ba02ca3244bcb1cdf/south-koreas-central-bank-cutsgrowth-forecast.
Malkasian, Carter. 2001. The Korean War, 1950-1953. Oxford: Osprey Pub.
Martins, Jos Miguel Q. 2008. "Digitalizao E Guerra Local: Como Fatores De Equilbrio No Sistema
Internacional". Doutorado, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul.
Panda, Ankit. 2015. "Is North Korea's 'Byungjin Line' On The US-China Strategic Agenda?". The Diplomat.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/is-north-koreas-byungjin-line-on-the-us-china-strategic-agenda/.
Scobell, Andrew. 2005. North Korea's Strategic Intentions. Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army
War College.
Visentini, Paulo G. Fagundes. 2011. As Relacoes Diplomaticas Da Asia. Belo Horizonte: Fino Trao Editora.
Vizentini, Paulo Fagundes and Analcia Danilevicz Pereira. 2014. "A Discreta Transio Da Coreia Do Norte:
Diplomacia De Risco E Modernizao Sem Reforma". Revista Brasileira De Poltica Internacional 57 (2): 176195. doi:10.1590/0034-7329201400310.
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Apresentao
Em 14 de Julho de 2015, aps
uma srie de negociaes em Lausanne,
na Sua, foi acordado o chamado Plano
de Ao Compreensivo Conjunto (Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action) referente
ao programa nuclear iraniano. Assinado
entre os P5+1 (Estados Unidos, Rssia,
China, Inglaterra, Frana e Alemanha) e o
Ir, o acordo prev o levantamento das
sanes uni e multilaterais estabelecidas
sobre a economia iraniana ao longo dos
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Geopoltica e Histria do Ir
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Em
2002,
um
jornalista
denunciou a existncia de atividades
secretas de enriquecimento de Urnio
nas bases de Natanz e Arak, provocando
desconfiana sobre a finalidade do
projeto iraniano. A Agncia Internacional
de Energia Atmica (AIEA) passou a
pressionar o governo local a providenciar
provas concretas de que as atividades
estariam sendo realizadas com fins de
pesquisa. Em 2005, a AIEA alegou que
tais evidncias ainda no haviam sido
disponibilizadas. No mesmo ano, a
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agncia
lanou
uma
resoluo
condenando o programa nuclear iraniano
e solicitando a ao do Conselho de
Segurana das Naes Unidas (CSNU) e,
em definitivo, abriu caminho para o
endurecimento do debate entre o Ir e a
comunidade internacional (Lampreia
2014 p.59).
1 Rodada
Res. 1731 CSNU
2006
2 Rodada
Res. 1747 CSNU
2007
3 Rodada
Res. 1803 CSNU
2008
4 Rodada
Res. 1929 CSNU
2010
-Proibio de comrcio
de
bens
que
pudessem contribuir
com
o
programa
nuclear.
- Congelamento de
ativos de pessoas e
entidades ligadas ao
programa nuclear
- Prazo de 60 dias para
abandono
do
programa nuclear.
- Ampliao da lista de
congelamento
de
ativos, incluindo o
banco estatal Sepah e
companhias
administradas
pela
guarda revolucionria.
Proibio
de
exportao de armas
de qualquer tipo.
- Restrio importao
de todos os itens e
tecnologias com uso
dual (civil e mlitar).
- Ampliao da relao de
pessoas e entidades com
ativos congelados.
- Expanso das restries
financeiras de pessoas
ligadas ao programa
nuclear.
- Proibio de vrias
categorias de armamentos
pesado
ao
Ir
(helicpteros de ataque,
navios de guerra, etc.)
- Ampliao da relao de
pessoas e entidades com
ativos congelados.
- Aumento da rigidez nas
inspees nos aeroportos
dos itens a caminho do Ir.
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A Reabertura da Economia
Iraniana
Desde
o
chamado
implementation
day,
aceito
o
comprometimento do Ir com as
diretrizes estabelecidas pelo Acordo
12
Segundo Visentini e Roberto (2015), a estreita relao entre Teer e Damasco pode ser corroborada atravs
da formao do Eixo de Resistncia, o qual confirma o alinhamento de vises e objetivos polticos entre os dois
pases, como a resistncia s polticas hegemnicas norte-americanas e israelenses no Oriente Mdio. A crise na
Sria, e a internacionalizao deste conflito, portanto, representa uma possvel substituio do governo de Assad
por um governo sunita, podendo romper as relaes do Eixo e deteriorar a situao estratgica do Ir na regio.
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A reinsero do Ir no mercado de
petrleo representa, tambm, uma
A ttulo de comparao, em 2015 a produo de petrleo foi de 2.8 milhes de barris p/d (EIA 2016).
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Concluso
Assim,
entende-se
que
a
reinsero global da economia do Ir traz
consigo
uma
ampla
gama
de
oportunidades, tanto para o pas quanto
para investidores internacionais. A
entrada de capitais e o estmulo ao setor
privado devem recuperar o crescimento
da renda nacional a taxas significativas,
ao passo que dar liberdade para a
atuao de companhias multinacionais
europeias e estadunidenses. No campo
diplomtico, permanecem algumas
tenses e desconfianas entre o Ir e o
ocidente, principalmente em funo dos
constrangimentos derivados das
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2016.
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2016.
"A
Safer
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Thanks
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The
Iran
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/18/opinion/a-safer-world-thanks-to-the-irandeal.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FIran%27s%20Nuclear%20Program&_r=0.
Townsend, Mark. 2015. "The Oil Price, Iran And Saudi's Economy". Aljazeera.Com.
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Visentini, Paulo Fagundes and Willian Moraes Roberto. 2015. "As Consequncias Da Crise Na Sria Para O
Ir: Impactos Para Sua Estratgia Regional E No Eixo De Resistncia". Brazilian Journal Of International
Relations 4 (1): 71-91. doi:10.20424/2237-7743/bjir.v4n1p71-91.
World Bank. 2015. "Iran: Lifting Of Sanctions Will Lower Oil Prices And Boost Domestic Economy If Managed
Well". World Bank. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/08/10/iran-lifting-sanctionswill-lower-oil-prices-and-boost-domestic-economy-if-managed-well.
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14
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Em 2014, a II Conferncia de
Genebra, novamente realizada pela ONU,
buscou levar o governo de Bashar alAssad e alguns dos principais grupos de
oposio - organizados como Coalizo
Nacional Sria - juntos mesa de
negociao, em uma clara tentativa de
buscar a paz no pas por meio de uma
diviso de poder acordada entre todas as
partes envolvidas. Essas negociaes,
entretanto, no tiveram tantos efeitos
prticos, uma vez que, internamente,
Assad ignorava esses esforos de
incorporao
da
oposio
e,
internacionalmente, pases vizinhos e
outras potncias internacionais pareciam
ter cada vez menos disposio para
negociar com o presidente srio - sendo a
Rssia e o Ir as mais significativas
excees (Groarke 2016).
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presentes
Frana,
Reino
Unido,
Alemanha, Itlia, China, Egito, Om,
Qatar, Jordnia, Lbano, Iraque, Emirados
rabes Unidos, e representantes da
Unio Europeia e da Organizao das
Naes Unidas. O secretrio-geral da
ONU, Ban Ki-moon, afirmou que a palavra
de ordem em Viena deveria ser
flexibilidade, uma vez que os vrios
pases participantes apoiavam, cada um,
grupos distintos dentro da Sria (Jung
2015).
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No dia 14 de novembro, a
segunda rodada das negociaes de
Viena ocorreu, contando com a
participao de dos mesmos pases e
organizaes presentes no dia 30 de
outubro, com a adio da representao
da Liga rabe. O grupo ficou conhecido
como Grupo Internacional de Apoio
Sria (ISSG, do ingls International Syria
Support Group). Nessa ocasio, os pases
dialogaram sobre a urgncia de dar fim
destruio fsica da Sria e ao sofrimento
do povo srio, e concordaram que o
estabelecimento de um cessar-fogo na
regio deveria ser a prioridade imediata no incluindo, porm, neste cessar-fogo,
os ataques contra o Estado Islmico ou
frente
al-Nusra.
Os
pases
comprometeram-se
a
apoiar
um
processo de transio poltica nos
moldes do Communiqu de Geneva de
2012, buscando uma governana
inclusiva, no-sectria e liderada pelos
prprios srios (United Nations 2015).
Decidiu-se, ainda nessa reunio,
que eleies buscando a elaborao de
uma nova constituio seriam realizadas
dentro de 18 meses na Sria, e que 01 de
janeiro de 2016 seria a data limite para
que se iniciassem conversaes de paz
entre o governo srio e os grupos de
oposio. O ISSG no definiu de antemo
As conversaes de paz de
Genebra III (2016)
No dia 01 de fevereiro de 2016,
um ms aps o previsto, tiveram incio as
negociaes de paz sediadas em
Genebra, conhecidas como Genebra III.
Organizadas pelo ISSG e mediadas pelas
Naes Unidas, tais reunies tinham
como fim primordial estabelecer um
cessar-fogo, seguido de um governo de
transio e de eleies na Sria, alm da
derrota do Estado Islmico.
A primeira reunio foi composta
pelos mesmos participantes de Viena,
mas com a marcante diferena da
incluso de representantes do governo
srio e do Alto Comit de Negociaes
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A ONU nunca cogitou aceitar no HNC os grupos de oposio que so amplamente considerados terroristas,
como o Estado Islmico e a Frente al-Nusra. Alguns grupos considerados terroristas pela Rssia e pelo Ir,
porm, foram includos no Comit- a exemplo do Ahrah al-Sham, do Jaysh al-Islam -, apesar das demandas
russas de que apenas grupos que no recorressem violncia contra o frgil Estado srio deveriam poder
participar. Ainda, grupos importantes no combate ao Estado islmico, como os curdos, tambm no foram
includos na coalizo da oposio. Infelizmente, ainda muito difcil encontrar fontes confiveis e
detalhadas que contenham informaes sobre quais so, de fato, os 34 grupos que compe o HNC. Aqueles
que se tem confirmao sobre a participao so Jaysh al Mujahideen, Jaysh al Islam, Al Jaysh al Awl, Jabhat
al Asala wal Tanmiya - todos esses sabidamente atuando como oposio armada -, Ahrar al-Sham, Jabal
Turkman Battalion, Suqour al-Jabab Brigade, Council of Direction of Syrian Tribes, Popular Front for Change
and Liberation, Movement Kamh, Movement for a Pluralist Society, Cairo Group, Movement for a Peaceful
Policy Change, Syrian Democratic Council, e Salim Herbek e Namroud Suleiman como participantes
independentes (Pike 2016; Cafarella and Casagrande 2016) .
17
O Jaysh al-Islam um dos principais grupos de oposio jihadista salafista na Sria. Possui apoiadores
em sete provncias diferentes na poro ocidental do pas, mas detm sua maior fora na capital, Damasco
(Cafarella and Casagrande 2016).
18
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42
Os representantes do HNC
focaram nas questes humanitrias e na
libertao de prisioneiros polticos,
enquanto o posicionamento declarado do
governo srio seria de defesa da
independncia e soberania territorial
sria, alm da unidade do seu povo. O
ms de fevereiro foi, contudo, um perodo
de estagnao nas negociaes,
principalmente em virtude dos avanos
militares do governo srio e das foras
russas contra rebeldes em Alepo. Assim,
apenas foi discutida a necessidade de se
estabelecer um cessar-fogo. No dia 22,
em Munique, os Ministros de Relaes
Exteriores da Rssia e dos EUA se
reuniram na 52 Conferncia Anual de
Segurana de Munique e anunciaram
juntamente com o ISSG a adoo dos
Termos para o Fim das Hostilidades19 na
Sria. O cessar de hostilidades deveria ter
incio no dia 27 de fevereiro e ser
acompanhado de conversaes polticas
entre as partes envolvidas. Para isso, foi
Conselho
O anncio pelo presidente russo Vladimir Putin, em 14 de maro de 2016, sobre a retirada parcial das
foras militares russas da Sria, surpreendeu os pases e grupos envolvidos no conflito. Apesar dessa
retirada parcial, bombardeamentos areos continuaram, principalmente contra posies de grupos da
oposio. Assim, a Rssia atingiu seu objetivo de fortalecer as foras do governo e estabelecer sua presena
militar no pas sempre que necessrio. Analistas acreditam que o anncio de Vladimir Putin buscou
pressionar o presidente Bashar al-Assad a oferecer maiores compromissos para um acordo de paz, em
Genebra III (Salih 2016).
20
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Consideraes Finais
A
anlise
das
ltimas
conversaes de paz sobre a Sria atesta
a importncia e o alcance do conflito
srio. Esse conflito tem envolvido, de
alguma maneira, todos os pases
vizinhos: exemplos so o Iraque, em
virtude da atuao do Estado Islmico; a
Jordnia e o Lbano, em razo do fluxo de
refugiados; a Turquia, em razo dos
refugiados e tambm da questo curda.
O Ir e a Arbia Saudita, por sua vez, tm
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45
Algumas
lies,
entretanto,
podem figurar como heranas positivas
das conversaes de Genebra III,
especialmente no mbito regional e
internacional, e a observao dos
prximos eventos na regio poder
confirmar ou refutar isso. Primeiramente,
a liderana por parte dos Estados Unidos
e da Rssia de maneira conjunta e
equilibrada, que foi algo realmente novo
no perodo ps-Guerra Fria, at ento
marcado pela predominncia dos EUA.
Tal situao vem se alterando desde a
crise na Ucrnia, apontando para a
possibilidade de uma nova tendncia
diplomtica de maior dilogo entre as
grandes
potncias,
sem
a
preponderncia de um nico pas, e
utilizando a ONU como palco para tais
negociaes.
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References
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http://studies.aljazeera.net/en/positionpapers/2016/04/syria-fate-assad-impedes-success-geneva-iii160428104128240.html.
Amnesty International. 2015. "Syria's Refugee Crisis In Numbers". Amnesty
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International.
Arvinth, Karthick. 2016. "Syria Conflict: Geneva Peace Talks 'Going Slowly'".International Business Times UK.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/syria-conflict-geneva-peace-talks-going-slowly-1550665.
BBC. 2016. "Syria Conflict: Key Opposition Group
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35435065.
To
Join
Geneva
Talks".
BBC
News.
Cafarella, Jennifer and Genevieve Casagrande. 2016. Syrian Armed Opposition Powerbrokers. Middle East
Security Report. Washington: Institute for the Study of War.
Chatham House. 2016. "RussiaS Withdrawal From Syria: Five Things You Should Know".Chatham House.
https://syria.chathamhouse.org/research/russias-withdrawal-from-syria-five-things-you-should-know.
Davison, John and Laila Bassam. 2016. "Assad Holds Parliamentary Election As Syrian Peace Talks Resume".
Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0XA2C5.
Dearden, Lizzie. 2016. "Assad Still Wants To Take The Whole Of Syria Back By Force". The Independent.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/bashar-al-assad-vows-to-retake-whole-of-syria-byforce-despite-ceasefire-attempts-a6870141.html.
DeYoung, Karen and Carol Morello. 2016. "TurkeyS Difficulties With Syrian Kurds Complicate Strategy
Against Islamic State". Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/syriankurds-are-snag-in-us-turkey-strategy-against-isis/2016/01/23/20eba1bc-c1e2-11e5-94437074c3645405_story.html.
European Union. 2016. "Joint Statement: Final Declaration On The Results Of The Syria Talks In Vienna As
Agreed By Participants". European External Action Service. http://eeas.europa.eu/statementseeas/2015/151030_06.htm.
Groarke, Emer. 2016. "Mission Impossible: exploring the viability of power-sharing as a conflict-resolution
tool in Syria". International Journal Of Conflict Management 27 (1): 2-24. doi:10.1108/ijcma-12-2014-0090.
Hudson, John. 2016. "Syrian Opposition Suspends Peace Talks Amid Anti-Assad Offensive".Foreign Policy.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/18/syrian-opposition-suspends-peace-talks-amid-anti-assadoffensive/?utm_content=buffera93dd&wp_login_redirect=0.
Irish, John and Warren Strobel. 2016. "Russia Keeps Bombing Despite Syria Truce; Assad Vows To Fight On".
Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-syria-agreement-idUSKCN0VK2NX.
Jung, Elaine. 2015. "Syria Conflict: Vienna Talks To Be Held". BBC. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middleeast-34674003.
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Lund, Aron. 2016. "The Road To Geneva: The Who, When, And How Of SyriaS Peace Talks".Carnegie
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Martin, Nik. 2016. "Syrian Opposition Suspends Participation In Geneva Peace Talks". Deutsche Welle.
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Iran
Role".
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The rise of civilian elites may result in instability and setbacks in the
opening process due to disputes between elites and the foreign interests of
China and US.
Presentation
In November 2015, elections in
Myanmar (former Burma) drew global
attention under headlines of renovation
of hope and democracy in the country. In
the previous election, in 2010, the Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP),
which represents the military elites, won
large majority in Parliament (Pyithu
Hluttaw). In contrast, the 2015 elections
gave victory to the National League for
Democracy (NLD),which won 60% of
parliamentary participation. So far, we
observe respect for the results of the
polls by the old elites. On the other hand,
historical
tensions
between
the
PhD candidate and Master in International Strategic Studies at the Federal University of Rio Grande do
Sul (UFRGS). Contact: erik_ribeiro@yahoo.com.br
21
22
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Brief history
23
We can mention the revolutionary stance of China in the 1950s and 1960s and the support of the
American CIA to the Kuomintang Army stationed in Burma since the defeat in the Chinese Civil War. Later,
the leaders of these Chinese nationalist forces began to run a lucrative heroin trafficking business in the
north.
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economic
liberalization
and
the
establishment of a liberal democracy.
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Any major reforms in the 2008 Constitution can be made only with the approval of 75% of the Parliament.
As the military have 25% of the seats, it would be necessary just one vote among elected parliamentarians
to stall unwanted changes.
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Final considerations
The political landscape in
Myanmar is going through a historic
transition, which is expected to produce
new winners and losers. Precisely
because of its uniqueness, it is difficult to
predict results with high degree of
certainty. On one hand, it seems clear
that military elites facilitated the political
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References
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The rise of Kim Jong Un to power in 2011 was the beginning of a shift
in the internal political level of North Korea.
The policy established by the new leader, the byungjin, which seeks to
link development and deterrence, has been the center of the country actions
since 2011.
Professor of International Relations at the University Center Ritter dos Reis. PhD and Master in
International Strategic Studies / UFRGS Email:. Pvbrittes@gmail.com.
26
Only US, Russia, China, United Kingdom, France, India and Pakistan have H-bomb. There are indications
that Israel also possesses this artifact, although not officially confirmed.
27
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On July 8, 2016, US and South Korea announced the installation of the THAAD system on the Korean
peninsula. According to the announcement, the system installation meets the need to respond to the
advances of North Korean ballistic program.
The Foal Eagle exercise is mainly based on amphibious operations, which simulate landings from the sea,
especially in peninsular regions.
29
The Key Resolve exercise is based on the training of ground operations, especially those related to artillery.
In this sense, it would be directed to training of containment and of retaliation of any North Korean attack,
as this is one of the main weapons of the Korean Peoples Army.
30
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Although there are differences, according Martins (2008) between 2.5 and 3 million people died,
of which about 50% were civilians.
31
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32
According Cumings (2004), the UN mandate of US-led forces was to restore the status quo ante to the
advancement of the Northern forces. Namely, the geographic division in parallel 38.
The links between the North Korean government and the Chinese Communist Party can be traced back to
the resistance to the Japanese occupation period, where Koreans and Chinese fought side by side in the
Northeast Anti-Japanese United Army.
33
Moreover, Napalm was used in large quantities, which amplified the destructive power; and there are
reports of use of chemical and biological weapons by MacArthurs troops.
34
The juche doctrine emerges in a context of increasing rivalry between USSR and China in early 1960s. In
this context, North Korea claimed its independence from the allies and approached the Third World
movement. According Vizentini & Pereira (2014), to ensure its autonomy within the socialist bloc, Kim Il-Sung
tries to keep the country isolated.
35
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In mid-1990s, North Korea faced severe food crises resulting from deep climatological disturbances.
Among these disorders can be cited a number of serious floods and one of the longest droughts in history.
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37
These rounds of talks included the two Koreas, US, China, Japan and Russia.
The second nuclear test was carried out in 2009 and represented the closure of the multilateral
negotiations of the Six-Party Talks.
38
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14
39
The Committee has 41 members, including the United States, China, India, Japan, South Korea and
Germany. It is a committee linked to the OECD.
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14
Economic
Cooperation),
in
the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
(AIIB); and approach the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership
(RCEP) led by China. A normalization
of relations with the US is crucial to
be included in these projects.
However,
the
Obama
administration has adopted a policy
called the Strategic Patience, also based
on the perception that the North Korean
regime tends to collapse sooner or later
(Chanlett-Avery, Rinehart & Nikitin 2016).
In this sense, it believes in the use of nonmilitary measures to promote regime
change. That is, in this case, there would
be no reason to establish negotiations.
Thus, US strategic definitions for the
peninsula remain focused on damage
control in case that the regime collapses.
And from a political point of view, the
Obama administration states that only
accept negotiations if North Korea
provides more evident statements that it
intends to abandon its nuclear program.
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Final Considerations
The analysis of the situation on
the Korean peninsula does not seem to
indicate that will occur a large inflection
in the short term. However, given that
there is an ongoing modernization
process in North Korea and that the
country is seeking to establish channels
of dialogue with mainly the US, it is
expected that the demonstrations of
force by the communist regime will
remain.
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References
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Presentation
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20
2nd Round
Res. 1747 UNSC
2007
- Expansion of the
freezing
list
of
assets, including the
state-owned
Bank
Sepah
and
companies run by the
Revolutionary Guard.
- Export ban on
weapons of any kind.
the
European
Union,
several
- Restriction on importation
of
all
items
and
technologies with a "dual"
use (civilian and military).
- Expansion of the list of
people and entities with
frozen assets.
- Expansion of the financial
constraints on people
linked to the nuclear
program.
Source: Lampreia, 2014, p. 67-68. Table made by the authors.
4th Round
Res. 1929 UNCS
2010
- Prohibition of various
categories
of
heavy
weapons to Iran (attack
helicopters, warships, and
so on).
- Expansion of the list of
people and entities with
frozen assets.
- Increased rigidity in the
inspections of the items on
the way to Iran at airports.
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Conclusion
Thus, it is understood that the
overall reintegration of Iran's economy
into the world markets brings with it a
wide range of opportunities, both for the
country and for international investors.
The
capital
inflows
and
the
encouragement of private sector should
recover the growth of national income at
significant rates, while it gives freedom to
the performance of European and US
multinational
companies.
In
the
diplomatic field, some tensions and
mistrust between Iran and the West
remain, mainly due to the derivative
constraints of traditional US alliances in
the region, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia
and Israel - plus the United States speech
against the Iranian ballistic missile
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The Vienna and Geneva III peace talks were the latest multilateral
efforts seeking a resolution for the Syrian conflict. These peace talks involved
important domestic and regional actors that, until then, had not participated
together of previous negotiations.
The role of Bashar al-Assad during and after the political transition in
Syria is one of the key elements for solving the conflict.
The main obstacles for the peace talks are the conflicting interests of
the countries and local groups involved and the fact that important opposition
groups did not take part in the negotiations.
Presentation
On April 18 2016, the Syrian
opposition against the government
suspended its formal participation on the
peace talks for the Syrian conflict for
indefinite term. The peace talks had been
taking place in Geneva since the
beginning of the year, facilitated by the
United Nations (UN). Oppositions
spokespeople
argued
that
their
42
5th semester International Relations student in Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS).
43
5th semester International Relations student in Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS).
44
7th semester International Relations student in Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS).
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The United Nations never considered accepting in the HNC the opposition groups that are widely perceived as
terrorists, such as the Islamic State and the al-Nusra Front. However, some groups considered terrorists by Russia
and Iran, like Ahrah al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam, were included in the Committe, despite Russian demands to
accept only the groups that did not resort to violence against the fragile Syrian state. Moreover, the Kurds, who
play an important role in the combat against the Islamic State, were also not included in the coalition of opposition
groups. Unfortunately, it still is very hard to find reliable and detailed sources with information on who effectively
are the 34 groups that form the HNC. The following groups are the only ones whose participation we can confirm:
Jaysh al Mujahideen, Jaysh al Islam, Al Jaysh al Awl, Jabhat al Asala wal Tanmiya, Ahrar al-Sham, Jabal Turkman
Battalion, Suqour al-Jabab Brigade, Council of Direction of Syrian Tribes, Popular Front for Change and Liberation,
Movement Kamh, Movement for a Pluralist Society, Cairo Group, Movement for a Peaceful Policy Change, Syrian
Democratic Council, and Salim Herbek and Namroud Suleiman as independent participants (Pike 2016; Cafarella
and Casagrande 2016).
45
46Jaysh
al-Islam is one of the main jihadist salafist opposition groups in Syria. It has supporters in seven provinces
of the Western region of the country, but its major forces are settled in Damascus (Cafarella and Casagrande
2016).
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47
These terms included among other things: the implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 2254
- which was reiterated by Resolution 2268 of February 26th, 2016; the interruption of any form of attacks
against the Syrian government forces or any group related to them; and immediate humanitarian aid (United
States of America 2016).
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On March 14th, Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised the other countries and groups involved in the
Syrian conflict by announcing the partial withdrawal of Russian military forces from Syria. Air strikes against
the opposition, however, continued. Thus, Russia achieved its goal to strengthen the government forces and
establish its military presence in the country whenever necessary. Analysts believe that Vladimir Putin's
announcement sought to press President Bashar al-Assad to offer greater commitments to a peace
agreement in Geneva III (Salih 2016).
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Concluding Remarks
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Nations as
negotiations.
the
arena
for
such
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