ABSTRACET

A computerized sales forecasting system is a component of artificial intelligent that enables business
managers to predict the future of the business sales based on some criteria. The conventional/manual
method of sales forecasting has some shortfalls such as; Business managers have difficulties in keeping
sales information on which a prediction could be based on. The manual record keeping is stressful to sort
through and it takes time and space, things can go wrong between the planning sheet and real life and
human judgment could be biased, your numbers may be more wishful thinking than actual verifiable
figures and the forecast may be overly optimistic. All these problems have been analyzed and a
computer based solution provided. This computerized approach maintains summary of all sales ranging
from unit sales, total unit sales, sales, date, total sales and can generate report on daily, weekly, monthly
and yearly basis. There is a module that predicts the future business/sales condition based on season,
economic condition, available goods, past sales report, degree of uncertainty or accuracy. Sales
forecasting is one of the most crucial issues addressed in business. Control and evaluation of future sales
is still very essential to researchers, policy makers and managers of companies. This system will be used
to project sales volume into the future giving assumption about pricing and promotional effort. This will
enable the manager to do a better job of planning marketing strategies which will bring about increased
productivity. This system is implemented using PHP for the front end (interface) and MySql for the
backend (database).

CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been
observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified
future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods
employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental
methods. It is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to
forecasts. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible.
Sales Forecasting is the process of estimating what your businesss sales are going to be in the
future. Sales forecasting is an integral part of business management. Without a solid idea of what your
future sales are going to be, you cant manage your inventory or your cash flow or plan for growth. The
purpose of sales forecasting is to provide information that you can use to make intelligent business
decisions. Sales forecasting for an established business is easier than sales forecasting for a new
business; the established business already has a sales forecast baseline of past sales. A businesss sales
revenues from the same month in a previous year, combined with knowledge of general economic and
industry trends, work well for predicting a businesss sales in a particular future month. Sales forecasting
for a new business is more problematical as there is no baseline of past sales.
Computerized Sales Forecasting System uses artificial intelligence and powerful methodology to
quickly create very accurate forecasts. The software gives you the ability to predict future sales and/or

conditions of your business in the future. Both weekly and daily forecasts are created with lightning
speed, instantly updating on the screen. Some factors and methods are used to determine the
Computerized forecasting system. Some of these include; growth indexing, new product introductions,
historic sales, pricing, promotions, seasons and holidays, as well as other factors defined by the
developer.
1.2

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Making a decision on a bad forecast can result in financial ruin for the organization. To say that
forecasting is the bane of existence of most sales managers and leaders is a bit of an understatement.
Many manual forecast are a wish-cast. That is, the data is based on too much hope of what will happen
and not enough empirical evidence to be accurate. Other problems associated with manual forecasting
includes:
I.

Business managers have difficulties in keeping sales information on which a prediction could be

II.
III.

based on.
The manual record keeping is stressful to sort through and it takes time and space.
Things can go wrong between the planning sheet and real life, and human judgment could be

IV.

biased.
The figures used in manual forecasting may be more wishful thinking than actual verifiable

V.

figures and the forecast may be overly optimistic.

Several informal methods used in causal forecasting do not employ strict algorithms, but instead
use the judgment of the forecaster.

In view of these the need therefore arises for the development of computerized sales forecasting system
for an organization.

1.2

THE AIM AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of these project work is to design and implement a computerized sales forecasting system. The
objectives include:
1. To design a module that will keep a comprehensive list of sales information.
2. This computerized approach maintains summary of all sales ranging from unit sales, total unit
sales, sales, total sales and date.
3. There is a module that generates report on daily, weekly, monthly and yearly basis.
4. There is a module that predicts the future business condition based on season, economic
condition, available goods and sales report.
5. This project work is primarily designed to give an insight to computerized sales forecasting
system.
1.4

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Without a good computerized sales forecasts, it will be very difficult for you to steer your business in the
right direction. And the best way to plan for the future is to carefully analyze trends from the past with
your computerized system. This is especially true when predicting future sales of a product or service.
Your sales forecast is the backbone of your business plan. People measure a business and its growth by
sales, and your sales forecast sets the standard for expenses, profits and growth. The sales forecast is
almost always going to be the first set of numbers youll track for plan vs. actual use.
With the growth in information technology, the study offers numerous values to any organization
that deals on marketing of goods and items. Huge stack of files kept in the offices will no longer be there
again because information will be stored on the computer with the help of the computerized sales
forecasting system. Because of the easy to use nature of the computerized sales forecasting system, any
organization can easily buy it to make use of them.
1.5

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This project work is narrowed down to the design and implementation of a computerized sales
forecasting system. It designed to incorporate a database that will take account of all the sales and other
relevant information needed in the system. The system will be able to predict the future of a business
sales based on stated criteria.

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1

OVERVIEW OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the human-like intelligence exhibited by machines or software. It is also an
academic field of study. Major AI researchers and textbooks define the field as "the study and design of
intelligent agents", where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes
actions that maximize its chances of success. (John, 1955), defines it as "the science and engineering of
making intelligent machines".
Willis (2009), AI research is highly technical and specialized, and is deeply divided into subfields
that often fail to communicate with each other. Some of the division is due to social and cultural factors:
subfields have grown up around particular institutions and the work of individual researchers. AI
research is also divided by several technical issues. Some subfields focus on the solution of specific
problems. Others focus on one of several possible approaches or on the use of a particular tool or
towards the accomplishment of particular applications.
According to Fredrick (2006) the central problems (or goals) of AI research include reasoning,
knowledge, planning, learning, natural language processing (communication), perception and the ability
to move and manipulate objects. General intelligence (or "strong AI") is still among the field's long term
goals.[7] Currently popular approaches include statistical methods, computational intelligence and
traditional symbolic AI. There are a large number of tools used in AI, including versions of search and
mathematical optimization, logic, methods based on probability and economics, and many others. The
AI field is interdisciplinary, in which a number of sciences and professions converge, including
computer science, psychology, linguistics, philosophy and neuroscience, as well as other specialized
fields such as artificial psychology.

2.2

EFFECT OF SALES FORECASTING IN BUSINESS

Osakpokan (2000) managing a business is a little like running a ship. As the ship's captain, you need to
keep your eyes on the horizon to plan your next move. If there are storm clouds gathering, you must
secure the ship's cargo and warn the deck mates to take cover below. If there are rocky waters ahead, you
have to ask your crew to stand watch to help you navigate safely to the other side. If the next leg of the
journey is going to be long, you need to stock up on food and supplies before leaving port. In business,
there's less chance of losing an employee to scurvy, but it's equally important to plan ahead and keep
your eyes on the horizon. And the best way to plan for the future is to carefully analyze trends from the
past. This is especially true when predicting future sales of a product or service.
Sales forecasting uses past figures to predict short-term or long-term performance. It's a tricky
job, because so many different factors can affect future sales: economic downturns, employee turnover,
changing trends and fashions, increased competition, manufacturer recalls and other factors. But there
are several standard methods that can produce consistently accurate sales forecasts from year to year
(Gerald, 1999).
Michael (1997) without sales forecasts, it's very difficult for you to steer the company in the right
direction. You wouldn't know that the spring is always the slowest season, so you'd invest too much in
inventory that would just sit on the shelves. You wouldn't pay attention to industry analysts who predict
a robust growth in holiday sales, and you'd lose potential customers to the competition, which doubled
its holiday sales force and marketing campaigns.
2.3

PRINCIPALS OF GREAT SALES FORECASTING

According to George (2002) to say that forecasting is the bane of existence of most sales managers and
leaders is a bit of an understatement. For most representatives, the choice between working on the
forecast and getting a root canal would lead to a trip to the dentist. And yet, most organizations rely
heavily on the data that is produced in forecasts to make decisions on everything from budgets to
bonuses. I use quotes around the term data, because while the term is appropriate, many a forecast are a
wish-cast. That is, the data is based on too much hope of what will happen and not enough empirical
evidence to be accurate. If you want to produce better sales forecasts, then it is incumbent upon sales
leaders to take a different approach. Simply providing routine inspections of the numbers reported up the
chain of command and making adjustments based on gut feel is not enough. In order to produce a good
forecast, sales leaders need to pay attention to the following principles:

Good forecasting requires a good sales strategy

When a map is wrong, it fails to accurately depict the reality of the landscape, and the same is true when
a forecast is incorrect. In short, a forecast does not a strategy make. Good sales strategies take into
account the outcomes that need to occur in order to move closer to closing business. A good strategy
may include a SWOT analysis, or a clear understanding of the customer criteria for decision and how
you rank against the criteria, but most importantly, it will direct your tactics and help you determine the
logical series of next steps. And if an account is worth occupying space in your sales funnel it deserves
the strategic consideration and attention required to move deftly through your pipeline.

Good forecasting requires an understanding of your buyers behavior

If you want to learn how sellers ought to sell, learn how buyers buy, frequently admonished one of my
mentors. And if you want to have an accurate forecast, the same holds true. Too many forecasts are
simply lists or histories of what the seller has done without taking into consideration what the buyer is
doing. The sales process, however, only moves forward when the buyer takes action, so it is incumbent
on the sales organization to get very clear on how your buyer is making the decision. What is the process
they will use? What stages of the decision cycle are ahead? And what should you be doing differently at
each stage.

Good forecasting requires a milestone driven pipeline process

Once you are clear about how the client is buying you can apply your pipeline process. Ever looked at a
forecast and said, This account is not in the late stages, it is an early stage opportunity? The key to
being effective here is to make sure your pipeline process addresses the key milestones in your selling
environment. Are needs analyses, field studies, or demos important milestones that clients commit to in
the sales process? Pre-proposal review meetings? If so include them in the appropriate stages of your
pipeline process and manage to the events that lead to the completion of these milestones. Whatever
milestones they are, or whatever your unique vernacular calls them, make sure they are embedded in
your pipeline process so that they serve as guideposts for where you really are in the pipeline.

Good forecasting requires continual improvement

A forecast is a snapshot not a movie. At any given time you need to remember that, done well,
forecasting represents a moment in time, and since the landscape is constantly changing, forecasts need
to be continually refined. You may experience changes in your business or in the marketplace that
indicate that an additional milestone be added to your process. Or perhaps you find that over time, the

values you placed on each of the stages in the pipeline need revision because you have more predictive
data about closing rates.
2.3

Qualitative vs. quantitative methods

Bright (2009) qualitative forecasting techniques are subjective, based on the opinion and judgment of
consumers, experts; they are appropriate when past data are not available. They are usually applied to
intermediate- or long-range decisions. Examples of qualitative forecasting methods are informed opinion
and judgment, the Delphi method, market research, and historical life-cycle analogy.
Quantitative forecasting models are used to forecast future data as a function of past data; they
are appropriate when past data are available. These methods are usually applied to short- or
intermediate-range decisions. Examples of quantitative forecasting methods are last period demand,
simple and weighted N-Period moving averages, simple exponential smoothing, and multiplicative
seasonal indexes.
2.4

CREATING A SALES FORECAST

Anthony (2003) your sales forecast is the backbone of your business plan. People measure a business
and its growth by sales, and your sales forecast sets the standard for expenses, profits and growth. When
it comes to forecasting sales, don't fall for the trap that says forecasting takes training, mathematics or
advanced degrees. Forecasting is mainly educated guessing. So don't expect to get it perfect; just make it
reasonable. There's no business owner who isn't qualified to forecast sales, you don't need a business
degree or accountant's certification. What you need is common sense, research of the factors, and
motivation to make an educated guess.

Your sales forecast in a business plan should show sales by month for the next 12 months--at least-and then by year for the following two to five years. Three years, total, is generally enough for most
business plans. If you have more than one line of sales, show each line of sales separately and add them
up. If you have more than 10 or so lines of sales, summarize them and consolidate. Remember, this is
business planning, not accounting, so it has to be reasonable, but it doesn't need too much detail. Here
are some tips to get you started:

Develop a unit sales projection

Where you can, start by forecasting unit sales per month. Not all businesses sell by units, but most do,
and it's easier to forecast by breaking things down into their component parts. Product-oriented
businesses obviously sell in units, but so do a lot of service businesses. For example, accountants and
attorneys sell hours, taxis sell rides, and restaurants sell meals.

Use past data if you have it.

Whenever you have past sales data, your best forecasting aid is the most recent past. There are some
statistical analysis techniques that take past data and project it forward into the future. You can get just
about the same results by projecting your two most recent years of sales by month on a line chart and
then visually tracking it forward along the same line. Statistical tools are a nice addition, but they're
rarely as valuable in a business plan as human common sense, particularly if it's guided by analysis.

Use factors for a new product.

Having a new product is no excuse for not having a sales forecast. Of course you don't know what's
going to happen, but that's no excuse for not drafting a sales projection. Nobody who plans a new

product knows the future--you simply make educated guesses. So break it down by finding important
decision factors or components of sales. If you have a completely new product with no history, find an
existing product to use as a guide. For example, if you have the next great computer game, base your
forecast on sales of a similar computer game. If you have a new auto accessory, look at sales of other
auto accessories. Analysts projected sales of fax machines before they were released to the market by
looking at typewriters and copiers.

Break the purchase down into factors

For example, you can forecast sales in a restaurant by looking at a reasonable number of tables occupied
at different hours of the day and then multiplying the percent of tables occupied by the average estimated
revenue per table. Some people project sales in certain kinds of retail businesses by investigating the
average sales per square foot in similar businesses.

Be sure to project prices

The next step is prices. You've projected unit sales monthly for 12 months and then annually, so you
must also project your prices. Think of this as a simple spreadsheet that adds the units of different sales
items in one section, then sets the estimated prices in a second section. A third section then multiplies
units times price to calculate sales. The math is simple--the hard part is making that estimated guess of
unit sales.
2.5

ADVANTAGES

AND

DISADVANTAGES

OF

FORECASTING

METHODS

OF

PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

Campbell (2002) organizations use forecasting methods of production and operations management to
implement production strategies. Forecasting involves using several different methods of estimating to

determine possible future outcomes for the business. Planning for these possible outcomes is the job of
operations management. Additionally, operations management involves the managing of the processes
required to manufacture and distribute products. Important aspects of operations management include
creating, developing, producing and distributing products for the organization.

Advantages of Forecasting

An organization uses a variety of forecasting methods to assess possible outcomes for the company. The
methods used by an individual organization will depend on the data available and the industry in which
the organization operates. The primary advantage of forecasting is that it provides the business with
valuable information that the business can use to make decisions about the future of the organization. In
many cases forecasting uses qualitative data that depends on the judgment of experts.

Disadvantages of Forecasting

It is not possible to accurately forecast the future. Because of the qualitative nature of forecasting, a
business can come up with different scenarios depending upon the interpretation of the data. For this
reason, organizations should never rely 100 percent on any forecasting method. However, an
organization can effectively use forecasting with other tools of analysis to give the organization the best
possible information about the future. Making a decision on a bad forecast can result in financial ruin for
the organization, so an organization should never base decisions solely on a forecast.
2.5

CAUSAL / ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING METHODS

Some forecasting methods try to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is
being forecast. For example, including information about climate patterns might improve the ability of a
model to predict umbrella sales. Forecasting models often take account of regular seasonal variations. In
addition to climate, such variations can also be due to holidays and customs: for example, one might

predict that sales of college football apparel will be higher during the football season than during the off
season.
Several informal methods used in causal forecasting do not employ strict algorithms, but instead
use the judgment of the forecaster. Some forecasts take account of past relationships between variables:
if one variable has, for example, been approximately linearly related to another for a long period of time,
it may be appropriate to extrapolate such a relationship into the future, without necessarily
understanding the reasons for the relationship (Louis, 2007).

CHAPTER THREE
METHODOLOGY AND SYSTEM ANALYSIS

3.1

STRUCTURED DESIGN METHODOLOGY

Structured design methodology is a set of standards for systems analysis and application design. It uses a
formal methodical approach to the analysis and design of information systems. The Structured design
methodology is an open methodology based on the waterfall model. It has been used by many
commercial businesses, consultants, educational establishments and CASE tool developers. For the
purpose of this project work structured design methodology was used because of its advantages,
generally:

It allows the form of problem to guide the form of solution.

It is based on the principle of simplifying a large complex system by partitioning it into smaller
modules.

3.2

It favours the use of standard graphic tools to aid system design.

It offers a set of strategies for developing a solution.

It offers a set of criteria for the evaluation of a good design.

TOP-DOWN DESIGN METHODOLOGY

A top-down approach (also known as stepwise design and in some cases used as a synonym of
decomposition) is essentially the breaking down of a system to gain insight into its compositional subsystems. In a top-down approach an overview of the system is formulated, specifying but not detailing
any first-level subsystems. Each subsystem is then refined in yet greater detail, sometimes in many
additional subsystem levels, until the entire specification is reduced to base elements. A top-down model
is often specified with the assistance of "black boxes", these make it easier to manipulate. However,

black boxes may fail to elucidate elementary mechanisms or be detailed enough to realistically validate
the model. Top down approach starts with the big picture. It breaks down from there into smaller
segments.
3.3

WATER FALL METHODOLOGY

The waterfall methodology is an approach to software development that emphasizes completing a phase
of the development before proceeding to the next phase. The waterfall methodology was derived from
engineering models to put some order in the development of large software product. It consists of
different stages which are processed in a linear fashion.
3.4

FACT FINDING METHODS USED

1. PERSONAL INTERVIEW: Some of the staffs were interviewed to share their feeling and experience
about the manual system of processing sales data/information. Their respond was that manual system is
time consuming and has element of errors. They stressed that the manual system has not helped them
much.
2. OBSERVATION: A situation whereby sales files and receipt will full everywhere makes the office
untidy. Having observed that searching for sales record are time consuming makes the manual method
ineffective.
3, BROWSING METHOD: I visited internet to browse for information concerning computerized sales
forecasting system.
3.5

ANALYSIS OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM

The existing system is a system that is been carried out in terms of manual operation, A system in which
all the methods of processing sales data/information is of a manual approach. This approach is such that

the staff will record all sales information on a paper or register and kept it a file.

Critical

analysis

of

this system reveals that it is a system prone to a lot of errors and it is not effective. Searching for
somebodys sales information is time consuming and boring. The system is in such a way that the office
is full of sales files and receipt. This tends to make the office look untidy. Careful analysis also shows
that because of the complexities of the manual system, information stored is difficult to retrieve.
3.5.1

INPUT ANALYSIS

This deals with the process used to feed data to the system for processing. Data are supplied to the
system are: Customers name, Customers address, Phone number, goods bought, amount paid, date,
Available goods and prices, date of purchase, date of sales, total expenditure made on goods, total
income after sales, profit or lost recorded.
3.5.2

OUTPUT ANALYSIS

This involves the resultant documentation generated after processing of data/information supplied to the
system. The output here can be:

3.6

i.

Printed customer receipt.

ii.

Sales forecasting report

PROBLEMS OF THE EXISTING SYSTEM

A lot of problems are associated with existing system. The existing system involves the use of manual
way to process sales data/information. The system has proved defective as the objective of the system
has also failed. Among the problems associated with the existing system include the following:
1. Sales data/information can easily be misplaced.
2. Data redundancy.

3. Time wasted in searching/sorting for sales information.

4. Poor security and protection.
5. Misplacing and mismanaging of sales records.
3.7

JUSTIFICATION OF THE PROPOSED SYSTEM

It is expected that with the introduction of the new system, a lot of positive changes will be noticed. The
numerous problem associated with the manual system will be minimizes, if not totally put to an end.

STORAGE

The new system will use a centralized database to tackle the storage problem. The sales data will be well
stored and protected for future. The computer system memory will be large. There will also be extended
and expanded memory facilities. In the event of increase in the volume of information, the system can
always be upgraded to take care of the in.

PRACTICABILITY

The proposed system will be used for a very long time because provisions are made for update.

OVERALL EFFICIENCY

The new system will be more efficient in terms of inputs, process and output of information.
Information will be accurate, complete, clear concise and legible.

There will be cost effective

production. The computerized sales forecasting system will operate at optimal efficiency.

3.8

ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE

GENERAL OPERATION MANAGER

SHOP MANAGER

ACCOUNTANT

STORE PERSONNEL
RESTRURANT PERSONNEL
PROCUREMENT PERSONNEL

CASHIER

WORKERS

COMPUTER OPERATOR

DRIVERS

GATEMEN

Fig. 1 organizational structure

WORKERS

WORKERS

CHAPTER FOUR
SYSTEM DESIGN
Having looked at and studied critically the old system with its deficiencies, then a system specification
and a design which was developed to meet the user requirement for computerized sales forecasting
system is developed.
4.1

GENERAL SYSTEM FUNCTION

The system will generally perform the following function:

Allows the system administrator to login too the system.
The system administrator can add purchase, update purchase and delete purchase
There is a module that records all the sales in the system and automatically subtract it from the
quantity in stuck.
The system generates daily, monthly and yearly reports.
There is a module that forecasts the future market condition using some criteria such as: session,
economic condition and degree of certainty
There is a module that allow users to print receipt.
4.2

SYSTEM SPECIFICATION

This section shows the requirement of the system and what it is supposed to contain for effective design.
4.2.1

Home Page Specification

Purchase: to allow the user to add, update and edit purchase.

 Administrator login: to login an administrative staff or the CEO Admin to perform an

administrative functions.
Add sale: this allows users to record sales made in the system.
Report: enables users to generate, daily, monthly and yearly reports.
Print receipt: allows users to print receipts of sold items.
Forecasting: this module allows the user to make predictions about the future conditions of the
market.

4.2.2

User Interface Specification

This is a detailed description of the components of the user interface. We have input and output
specification.
4.2.2.1

Input Form Specification

The input form and their specification are shown below

A. Administrator login form: this form enables the system administrator to login into the system.
The fields here are;
username
Password
B. Add item form: this form enables the admin to add items to the system. The fields here are:
Item name
Quantity
Unit price
Other fees
Date of purchase
Add purchase
C. Add sale form: this form allows the user to take record of new sales. The fields here are:
Customer name
Customer address
Phone no.
Item name
Quantity
Unit price
Date of sale
Add sale

D. Update purchase form: this form enables the admin to update items to the system. The fields
here are:
Item name
Quantity
Unit price
Other fees
Date of purchase
update purchase
4.2.2.2 Output Form specification
The output form here is the form that shows the details of the input processed by the sales forecasting
system. The field here includes:

4.2.3

Item name
Quantity available
Quantity sold
Date sale
Date of purchase

Database specification

There is a database named sales_forecasting to handle all the details of the sales forecasting system.
The database will be stored in Wamp server which will contain MySql as the database management
system. It has four tables, they includes:
a. Users: this table has the information needed for an admin staff to login. The fields in it includes:
Id
int(11)
Username
varchar(20) null
Password
varchar(20) null
b. Bought: this table contains all the information about the sold items in the system from different
locations. The fields here includes:
Id
int(11)
Item_name
varchar(20)
Quantity
varchar(20)

null
null

 Unit_price
int(5)
Total_price
(5)
Otherfees
(5)
Total_expenditure
(7)
Date_of_purchase
data
Daily
varchar(2000) null
Monthly
varchar(2000) null
Yearly
varchar(2000) null
Sold
varchar(200) null
c. Sales: this table holds all the information about the sales in the system. The fields here includes:
Id
int(11)
Item_name
varchar(200) null
Quantity
int(6)
Unit_price
int(6)
Total_price
int(7)
Otherfees
int(7)
Total_expenditure
int(7)
Date_of_purchase
int(7)
Location
varchar(2000) null
Daily
varchar(2000) null
Monthly
varchar(2000) null
Yearly
varchar(2000) null
Sold
varchar(2000) null
d. Forecasting: this table contains all the information the system needs to forecast. The fields here
include:
Id
Season
Economic_condition
Past_sales
Degree_of_uncertainty
Forecast_result
Date_forecast
Daily
Monthly
Yearly

int(11)
varchar(200)
varchar(200)
varchar(2000)
varchar(20)
varchar(20)
varchar(20)
varchar(20)
varchar(200)
varchar(200)

null
null
null
null
null
null
null
null
null

4.3

SYSTEM DESIGN

4.3.1

Home Page Design

This subsection is responsible for contents in the main menu interface. The figure below has a
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM

descriptive explanatory diagram of the sketch of the main menu design.

HOME

PURCHASE ADD SALE

ADD PURCHASE

REPORTREPRINT RECEIPT FORECAST

SALE

UPDATE PURCHASE
DELETE UPDATE

AVAILABLE ITEMS

SALES FORECASTING

PREVIOUS FORECASTING REPORT

LOGOUT

Fig. 2

4.3.2

homepage design

User Interface Design

4.3.2.1 Input Form Design

This sub-section deals with the various designs of individual forms in which a user will enter data and a
click event to allow a procedure to happen. Below are the individual input forms.
Add Item Form

Fig. 3
Add sale form

Fig. 4
Forecasting form

Fig. 5
4.3.2.2 Output Form Design
The output form design is the form that shows the details of the input processed. The output form here is
the report form.
Sales Report Form

Fig. 6

4.3.3

DATABASE DESIGN

We have one database know as sales_forecasting. Our database constitutes of tables that is made up of
fields of different field types and sizes. They include:
Table 1Users table
S/N

FIELDNAM
E

FIELDTYPE

SIZE

CONSTRAIN
T

1
2
Table 2
S/N

USERNAME
PASSWORD

VARCHAR
VARCHAR

20
20

NULL
NULL

forecast table
FIELDNAME

FIELDTYP

SIZE

CONSTRAIN

ID
SEASON
ECONOMIC_CONDITION
PASTSALE_REPORT
DEGREE_OF_UNCERTAINT

E
INT
VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR

11
200
200
200
200

T
-

1
2
3
4
5

NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL

6
7
8
9
10

Y
FORECAST_RESULT
DATE_FORECAST
DAILY
MONTHLY
YEARLY

INT
VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR

3
20
20
20
20

NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL

Table 3

Sales table

S/N

FIELDNAME

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

ID
ITEM_NAME
QUANTITY
UNIT_PRICE
TOTAL_PRICE
OTHER_FEES
TOTAL_EXPENDITURE
DATD_OF_PURCHASE
DAILY
MONTHLY
YEARLY
SOLD

Table 4

Bought Table

FIELDTYPE
INT
VARCHAR
INT
INT
INT
INT
INT
VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR

SIZE
11
200
9
9
9
9
9
20
2000
2000
2000
200

CONSTRAIN
T
-

NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL

S/N

FIELDNAME

FIELDTYP

SIZE

CONSTRAIN

ID
ITEM_NAME
QUANTITY
UNIT_PRICE
TOTAL_PRICE
OTHER_FEES
TOTAL_EXPENDITUR

E
INT
VARCHAR
INT
INT
INT
INT
INT

11
200
9
9
9
9
9

T
-

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL

E
DATD_OF_PURCHAS

VARCHAR

20

NULL

9
10
11
12
13

E
LOCATION
DAILY
MONTHLY
YEARLY
SOLD

VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR
VARCHAR

2000
2000
2000
2000
200

NULL
NULL
NULL
NULL

4.3.4

Program Module Design

START

DISPLAY MENU

SALES ACTIVITIES

FORECAST

PROCESS

VISUAL DISPLAY

PRINT DOCUMENT
DATABASE

FIG. 8

program flowchart

START
Sale Forecasting

It describes how input is put into and the computer process it. Some times call up data from the database
Select Link

or update the database with new information.

Display Purchase Page

Is Link = Purchase?

4.3.5

PROGRAM FLOWCHARTS
Is link = Add Sale?

Display Add Sale Page

Is Link = Reprint Receipt?

Is Link = Report?

Display Report Page

Yes
Is Link = Forecasting?

Yes
Display Reprint Receipt page

Yes
No
N

Is Link = Homepage?

Yes

Display Forecasting page

Yes

No
Yes
Display the default page of the system

No
END

Fig 8.

Program Module Flowchart

This flowchart describes the program module. User clicks at the menu link, and sees options. Any one
the user clicks will display a page to perform the process.
Purchase Module Flowchart

START

PURCHASE

DISPLAY OPTIONS

ADD PURCHASE
UPDATE PURCHASE
DELETE PURCHASE

PROCESS

END

FIG. 9

Purchase Module Flowchart

This flowchart describes the purchase module. User clicks at the purchase link, and sees options to add,
update and delete purchase. Any one he clicks will display a page to perform the process.

Report Module Flowchart

START

REPORT

SALES REPORT
AVAILABLE ITEM REPORT

DISPLAY REPORT

END

FIG. 10
This flowchart describes the report module. When the link is selected there will be an option to generate
sales report or available item report. Any of the options chosen will be displayed.

Add Sales Module Flowchart

START

SELECT ITEM

FILL SALES INFORMATION

ADD SALE

END

FIG. 11

add sales flowchart

In this module the user select the item he wants to sell and will be prompted to fill the necessary
information, then click the add sale button and the item will be added as a sold item in the system while
automatically deducting the quantity sold from the available item.

Forecast Module Flowchart

START

FORECAST

SELECT TYPE

SALES FORECAST
PREVIOUS FORECAST REPORT

FORECAST

END

FIG. 12

Forecast Module Flowchart

When you click on the forecast link, you select the type of operation you want to perform. Either sales
forecast or previous forecast report. You fill in the criteria and then forecast.

CHAPTER FIVE
SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION, TESTING AND DEPLOYMENT
5.1

INTRODUCTION

This section chapter explains vividly the implementation of the designed system and the code that
achieve the actual instruction. Pseudo codes are used to show the structure of the coding while actual
coding are done using the chosen programming language (Hypertext Preprocessor).
5.1.1

LANGUAGE OF IMPLEMENTATION

To implement the specification already mentioned, we used a programming language, which is window
based. The language is Hypertext Preprocessor it is event driven and very flexible to use. Because the
system has a database that holds information about the sales and purchase details, the use of database
management system is utilized. And the software used here is MySql. The researcher has a good
working knowledge of Fireworks 8. So Macromedia fireworks 8 were used in designing of the pictures
used.
5.1.2

Main Menu Implementation

The main menu design is implemented as shown below:

Table 5Pseudo Code for Main Menu Design
PROCEDURE
Purchase_Click

ACTION-PSEUDO CODE
Displays the page where one can add, update or delete

purchase.
AddSale_Click

Display the page that enables one to record a sold item

linkAdministratorLogin_click

Displays the administrator login page.

linkHome_Click

Displays the default page

BtnSearch_click

Searches for available items in the system

BtnLogin_Click

Enables users to login into the system.

linkReport_click

Enables users to generate report.

BtnForecast_click

Forecasts for future sales

5.1.3

USER INTERFACE IMPLEMENTATION

The user interface implementation is subdivided into two:

The Input Form Implementation
The Output Form Implementation
5.1.3.1 The input form interface
The input form is the main medium for user interaction as it draws out information from users, responds
to it, works with the existing store of data, queries and writes back to the database and finally registers to
the local computer. In order to make the form easy to use for the user, the window form was
implemented using controls like labels, text fields, list menu, buttons etc. all these work together to
generate an interactive input interface.

5.1.3.2 The output form interface

These forms present data that has been processed to the user. Text fields and labels are used to specify
the search fields and buttons are used to call up event used to present data. The tools help in
development of an interactive user interface.
5.1.4

Database Implementation

The database implementation contains all the Sql data manipulation language (DML) that is used to
modify the data present in the database.

5.1.5

SELECT Extracts data from database table.

UPDATE - Updates data in the database.
DELETE Deletes data from the database.
INSERT inserts new data into the database table.
Module Implementation

The modules were implemented using hypertext preprocessor (PHP) programming language and it was
done using structured design methodology. The pseudo codes below represent the structure of the
coding.
Module Administration
There are different sub-systems but the one that would be discussed here is the administrator login
procedure, this only show the structure of the coding.
1. Admin home page shows
2. Load the login form
IF the admin enters incorrect username or password, then an error message shows.
User has the choice to go back to step 2 or close the page.
3. Opens the administrator restricted area page.

4. performs administrative tasks such as: generating report, check availability, or add, update and
delete purchase.
. 5. The system automatically generates reports of sales or available items.

If the admin wants to edit any particular field , then click on edit
If the admin wants modify any record, then click on modify
If the admin doesnt want to make any of these changes, then move to step 6

6. Admin user then logout.

5.2

SYSTEM TESTING

Software testing is a critical element of software quality assurance and represents the ultimate review of
specification, design and coding. In this section we will discuss software testing fundamentals and
techniques used in the test plan and test data required for the performance and evaluation of such test.
5.2.1

Test Plan

The test plan used in this project testing and integration was to test the modules, followed by the
subsystems and the main menu separately. Integrating the whole parts i.e main menu, subsystems and
modules together followed by the individual testing. Generally, the testing was done in three parts; unit
testing, integration testing and final testing.
5.2.2

Test Data

The data collected from the students as specified in the system analysis section were used to produce the
test data used in this system. The table below shows the test data of the system.
Table 6Expected and Actual Data
Test data

Expected result

Actual result

Home Page

Expected to see the main The main menu appeared.

menu screen from where you

Administrator login

can select option.

Expected to see administrator Administrator access area was

Print receipt

restricted area
displayed
Expected to see the print The print receipt form was

Report

receipt form.
displayed
Expected to the report page The form was displayed.
that

Check availability

generate

daily,

monthly and yearly report

Expected to see a page that The page was displayed.
will

Add purchase

could

allow

one

to

view

available goods in the system.

Expected to see a page that The page was displayed
will enable users to add

Forecast

purchases to the system.

Expected to see a page that The page was displayed
will enable user to forecast for
future sales

5.3

SYSTEM DEPLOYMENT

5.3.1

Parallel Change over

During changeover, a new system and an existing system run side by side. To input the same data and
perform the same processes, compare their output and prove the reliability of the new system. If the new
system is accepted, the existing system will stop running and will be replaced by the new one. This is

different from direct changeover and phased implementation because parallel running requires two
systems working at the same time.
5.3.2

Pilot Change over

Implement the new system at a selected location of the company, such as only one branch office. The
first group to use the new system is called the pilot site. The old system is still running at the pilot site
and for the rest of the organization. After the system proves successful at the pilot site, it is implemented
into the rest of the organization, usually using the direct changeover method. Pilot conversion is a
"semiparallel" and direct changeover method.

Operating both systems at only one site is not as

expensive.
5.3.3

Direct Change over

This is where the company literally switches off the old system and switches on the new one. This is
probably the most straightforward method but is also probably the riskiest.

CHAPTER SIX
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
6.1

SUMMARY OF ACHIEVEMENTS

The system will generally perform the following function:

 Allows the system administrator to login too the system.

The system administrator can add purchase, update purchase and delete purchase
There is a module that records all the sales in the system and automatically subtract it from the
quantity in stuck.
The system generates daily, monthly and yearly reports.
There is a module that forecasts the future market condition using some criteria such as: session,
economic condition and degree of certainty
There is a module that allow users to print receipt.
The success of all these operations was based on the analysis of the current system and testing processes
carried out during the system testing process.
6.2

PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED AND SOLUTION ADOPTED

At the cost of designing this system a lot of problems and setbacks were encountered. Some of these are
summarized in the table below.
Table 6.1 Problems Encountered and Solution Adopted
PROBLEM ENCOUNTERED

SOLUTION ADOPTED

During the process of designing the system, it This problem was solved by consulting some
was a very big challenge to execute some of people that are more experienced in the field.
the modules
Due to financial constraint, I was not able to This problem was resolved by saving some of
carry out all the necessary investigations that I my food allowances and used the money for
ought to

the research.

Some of the workers believed that their job is This problem was resolved by briefing these
at risk if the management implements the new individuals about their state of job and
system after its creation, so they refused to educating them about the importance of being
corporate with me as at when due.

6.3

computer literate.

CONCLUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Recently, more and more researchers and industrial practitioners are interested in applying computerized
sales forecasting in their routine problem solving. This research this research work provides an elaborate
and precise package for a business forecasting and if well utilized will lead to many benefits to
organizations that use it.