DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Tue May 25 19:41:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range

USD/JPY 89.72-90.42 89.24-90.61
EUR/USD 1.2258-1.2388 1.2172-1.2559
AUD/USD 0.8128-0.8305 0.8065-0.8366
NZD/USD 0.6625-0.6725 0.6559-0.6786
GBP/USD 1.4350-1.4443 1.4257-1.4528
USD/CHF 1.1517-1.1621 1.1486-1.1697
USD/CAD 1.0619-1.0811 1.0529-1.0851
EUR/JPY 110.05-112.37 108.83-114.05
EUR/GBP 0.8507-0.8585 0.8489-0.8674

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to range-trade. Pair underpinned by buying of yen crosses as risk appetite improved
(VIX fear gauge eased 9.68% to 34.61) after Wall Street overnight recovered from steep losses
to close mixed (DJIA off 0.23%, S&P up 0.04%) on strong rise in May U.S. Conference Board
consumer confidence index to 2-year high of 63.3 from 57.7 in April (vs 58.5 expected).
USD/JPY also supported by USD demand for import settlements; but gains tempered by lower
U.S. Treasury yields, Japan exporter sales, lingering worries over euro-zone financial system,
geopolitical tensions in Korean peninsula - 3-month USD Libor fixed at 10-month high 0.53625
yesterday, underscoring increased counter-party risks. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan April
corporate service price index, BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes, 0030 GMT Fed Chairman
Bernanke speaks, 1230 GMT U.S. April durable goods, 1400 GMT U.S. April new home sales,
2030 GMT Fed's Lacker speaks. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, stochastics in
bullish mode. Resistance at 90.42 (yesterday's high); breach would target 90.61 (hourly chart),
then 90.75 (Monday's high), 91.88 (Thursday's high) and 92.15 (May 19 high). Support at 89.72
(hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 89.24 (yesterday's low), then 88.98 (Thursday's
low), 87.95 (May 6 low) and 87.33 (Dec. 9 reaction low).

EUR/USD - to range-trade. Pair undermined by growing unease Europe's sovereign debt crisis
could turn into banking crisis after Bank of Spain moved to seize troubled regional lender
CajaSur, consolidate other institutions. But EUR/USD losses tempered by improved risk appetite
as equities rebound. Data focus: 0610 GMT German June GfK consumer climate survey.
EUR/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish, but MACD turning bullish. Resistance at
1.2388 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2559 (Monday's high), then 1.2672
(Friday's high), 1.2684 (May 13 high) and 1.2739 (May 12 high). Support at 1.2258 (hourly
chart); breach would expose downside to 1.2172 (yesterday's low), then 1.2143 (May 19 4-year
low), psychological 1.2000 and 1.1823 (Feb. 27, 2006 reaction low).

AUD/USD - to consolidate after hitting 10-month low of 0.8065 yesterday. Pair supported by
AUD demand for long-AUD carry trades as risk appetite improved on recovering equities,
growing view China won't move as aggressively as previously thought to cool its economic
growth. But Aussie gains tempered by continued concerns over European financial system,
tensions in Korean peninsula; weaker commodity prices (CRB spot index ended down 3.18
yesterday at 248.79). Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia March Westpac-Melbourne Institute
indexes of economic activity, 0130 GMT Australia 1Q construction work done. AUD/USD daily
chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold, bullish hammer candlestick
completed yesterday. Resistance at 0.8305 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to
0.8357-0.8366 band (Monday's high-Friday's high), then 0.8498 (Thursday's high), 0.8637 (May
19 high) and 0.8684 (previous base set May 17). Support at 0.8128 (hourly chart); breach would
expose downside to 0.8065 (yesterday's low), then psychological 0.8000, 0.7825 (50% Fibonacci
correction of 0.6245-0.9405 Feb. 2, 2009-Nov. 16, 2009 advance) and 0.7700 (July 13, 2009
reaction low).

NZD/USD - to consolidate after hitting 9-month low of 0.6559 yesterday. Pair underpinned by
NZD demand for long-Kiwi carry trades as risk sentiment improved on stocks rebound, fading
expectations of China monetary tightening. But NZD/USD gains tempered by weaker
commodity prices, continued worries over euro-zone financial system, geopolitical tensions in
Korean peninsula. NZD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at
oversold; bullish hammer candlestick completed yesterday. Resistance at 0.6725 (yesterday's
high); breach would expose upside to 0.6786 (Monday's high), then 0.6817 (Friday's high),
0.6876 (Thursday's high), 0.6913 (previous base set May 17) and 0.7039 (May 18 high). Support
at 0.6625 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (yesterday's low), then 0.6470
(July 30, 2009 reaction low) and 0.6262 (50% Fibonacci retracement of advance from March 4,
2009 low of 0.4890 to Oct. 21 high of 0.7634).

GBP/USD - to range-trade. Pair underpinned by improving risk appetite as equities recover; but
gains tempered by persistent worries over euro-zone debt crisis, heightened military tensions in
Korean peninsula, concerns about long period of slow UK GDP growth as government seeks to
cut budget deficit. GBP/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics bullish at oversold, but MACD
still in bearish mode. Resistance at 1.4443 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to
1.4528 (Monday's high), then 1.4546 (May 17 high), 1.4638 (May 14 high) and 1.4916 (May 13
high). Support at 1.4350 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.4257 (yesterday's
low), then 1.4230 (Thursday's 14-month low), 1.4108 (March 30, 2009 reaction low) and
psychological 1.4000 level.

USD/CHF - to consolidate after hitting 13-month high of 1.1697 yesterday. Pair undermined by
broad-based retreat in USD after U.S. stocks rebounded overnight; but downside limited by
expectations of more SNB CHF-selling intervention, short-CHF carry trades on improved risk
sentiment. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at overbought,
bearish shooting-star candlestick completed yesterday. Support at 1.1517 (yesterday's low);
breach would target 1.1486 (Monday's low), then 1.1447 (Friday's low), 1.1420 (May 19 low)
and 1.1267 (May 18 low). Resistance at 1.1621 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to
1.1697 (yesterday's high), then 1.1740 (April 20, 2009 reaction high) and 1.1965 (March 12,
2009 reaction high).

USD/CAD - to consolidate after hitting 7-month high of 1.0851 yesterday. Pair undermined by
improved risk appetite as stocks recover, retreating global USD; but downside limited by
uncertainty whether BOC will raise rates on June 1 as euro-zone debt worries offset recent
upbeat Canada economic data, weaker commodity and oil prices (Nymex crude settled down
$1.46 yesterday at $68.75/bbl). Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada March weekly employee
earnings. USD/CAD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at
overbought, bearish shooting-star candlestick completed yesterday. Support at 1.0619
(yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0529 (Monday's low), then 1.0416
(Thursday's low), 1.0383 (May 19 low) and 1.0245 (May 18 low). Resistance at 1.0811 (hourly
chart), then at 1.0851 (yesterday's high); breach would target 1.0869 (Nov. 2 reaction high), then
1.0992 (Sept. 28 reaction high).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate after hitting fresh 8.5-year low of 108.83 yesterday. Cross supported
by improved risk appetite as stocks recover; but gains tempered by worries over euro-zone's
fiscal and economic problems, tensions between North and South Koreas. Daily chart mixed as
MACD bearish, while stochastics stay suppressed at oversold; but bullish hammer candlestick
completed yesterday. Resistance at 112.37 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 114.05
(Monday's high), then 114.40 (Friday's high), 115.49 (May 18 high) and 117.00 (May 14 high).
Support at 110.05 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 108.83 (yesterday's low),
then 106.76 (Nov. 8, 2001 reaction low) and 105.45 (Sept. 4, 2001 reaction low).

EUR/GBP - to range-trade. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode.
Resistance at 0.8585 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8674 (Monday's high),
then 0.8773 (Friday's high), 0.8807 (May 7 high) and 0.8847 (April 19 high). Support at 0.8507
(yesterday's low); breach would target 0.8489 (May 19 low), then 0.8443-0.8439 band (May 12
low-May 7 low) and 0.8425 (May 6 low).

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)