(as on 15.06.

2016)
Commodity Profile of Wheat for June 2016
Contents
1. Wheat estimates for India ....................................................................................................... 2
2.

Wheat estimates for the World ................................................................................................ 2

3.

Indias Wheat Production, Area under Cultivation and Yield................................................. 3

4.

Global Production .................................................................................................................... 3

5.

Major Exporters and Importers of Wheat ................................................................................ 4

6.

Indias Top 10 Export Destinations ......................................................................................... 5

7.

Trade flow for Wheat .............................................................................................................. 5

8.

Domestic and International Price Movement .......................................................................... 6

9.

Minimum Support Price (MSP) ............................................................................................... 6

10.1 Wheat Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis ............................................................................ 7

10.2 Domestic Price Movement in Major Mandis .......................................................................... 7
11 Future prices of wheat .............................................................................................................. 8
12. Trade Policy .............................................................................................................................. 8

1|Co mmodity P rofile for Wheat -June - 2016

1.

Wheat estimates for India(crop year 2015-16 and marketing year 2016- 2017)
(Quantity in Million Metric Tonnes)

Table 1: Estimated Figure of Wheat Production, Trade, Consumption and Stock of India

2015-16
17.22
94.04**
0.51
111.77
0.61
15.47
95.69

2016-17
(Estimated)
14.54#
92.14
0.18
106.86
3.03
13.06##
90.77

Particulars/Year

April,2016

Source

Opening Stock in Central Pool

Production
Total Imports
Availability
Total Export
Ending Stock in Central Pool
Total Availability for Domestic
Consumption

14.54
92.14
0.00*
106.68
0.35*
31.45
74.88

DoFPD
DES
DoC
DoC
DoFPD

Sources: Department of Food & Public Distribution (DoFPD); Department of Commerce (DoC); Directorate of
Economics & Statistics (DES); Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DoAC).
**As per 3rd Advance estimates for 2015-16 released on 09.05.2016.Availability: opening stock in central pool
plus production plus Imports; Total Availability for Domestic Consumption: Availability minus (total export
plus ending stock in central pool)
*The figure of export and import is for the month of April, 2016.
#: Estimated figure in the beginning of the year. ##: Estimated figure at the end of the year
For preparing estimated figure for 2016-17, Production, Imports and export have been taken for last three years
average, opening and ending stock as estimated by Department of Food and Public Distribution.
It may be seen that FCI stocks ending in April, 2016 is 31.45 million MT against 34.12 million MT in the
corresponding period of last year.

2. Wheat estimates for the World

(Quantity in Million Metric Tonnes)
Table 2: Wheat Production, Trade, Consumption and Stock of the World
Particular/Year
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17 ( Forecasted)
Production
730
736
722
Trade
153
156
154
Consumption
717
719
717
Carry Over Stock
201
217
223
Source: International Grains Council (IGC)

During 2014-15 and 2015-16, the world production has increased by 0.82 percent (from 730
million MT to 736 million MT) and world trade increased by 1.96 per cent, (from 153 million
MT to 156 million MT) respectively, and consumption has increased by 0.27 percent (from 717
million MT to 719 million MT). As a result, change in carry over stock has increased by 7.96
percent.

2|Co mmodity P rofile for Wheat -June - 2016

3. Indias Wheat Area and Production during 2005-06 to 2015-16

Figure1: Wheat Area and Production

34

120
100

32
31

80

30
29

60

28
40

27
26

20

25
24

Production(in Million Tonnes)

Area(in Million Hectare)

33

Area

Production

Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics

Indias wheat production has increased in last 10 years at CAGR of 3.07 percent
Area under wheat cultivation has also increased in last 10 years at CAGR of 0.94
percent.

Million Tonnes

4. Global Production
Figure 2: Major Wheat Producing Countries

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
EU

China

2013-14

India

Russia

US

Canada Ukraine Pakistan Australia Turkey

2014-15 2015-16

2015-16

Source:United States Department of Agriculture Database.

China was the leading wheat producing country followed by India and Russia.
Indias share in global wheat production was recorded at 11.78 percent in the year 201516.

3|Co mmodity P rofile for Wheat -June - 2016

5. Major Exporters and Importers of Wheat

Figure 3 :Major Exporting Countries

35

Million Tonnes

30
25
20
15
10
5
0

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Source: Comtrade

Million Tonnes

Canada was the leading wheat exporting country in the world followed by US and
Russia in 2015-16.
Indias share in global exports was around 0.40 percent in the year 2015-16.

9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Figure 4: Major Importing Countries

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Source: Comtrade

As shown in the Figure 4, Algeria was the largest importing country in the world
followed by Italy, Indonesia and Japan in 2015-16.

4|Co mmodity P rofile for Wheat -June - 2016

6. Indias Top 10 Export Destinations

Lakh Tonnes

Figure 5: Top 10 export Destinations

12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00

2014-15

2015-16

Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S)

In 2015-16, Indias major export destinations were Bangladesh, Nepal, UAE and
Taiwan.
7. Trade flow for Wheat
(Quantity in million MT)

Table 3: Indias Wheat Trade During 2011-12 to 2015-16

Year

Export

Import

2012-13

6.51

0.0

2013-14

5.56

0.01

2014-15

2.92

0.03

2015-16

0.61

0.51

2016-17(April)

0.35

0.00

Source: Depart. Of Commerce

Indias wheat export in 2015-16 has declined by 79% over the corresponding period of
the previous year in view of surplus global stocks and higher domestic prices.

5|Co mmodity P rofile for Wheat -June - 2016

8. Domestic and International Price Movement

Apr-16

May-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

July-15

Aug-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sept-14

Aug-14

July-14

June-14

Apr-14

21000
19000
17000
15000
13000
11000
9000
7000
5000
May-14

Price in Rs./Tonnes

Figure: 6 Domestic Vs International Price Movement

International prices (US No 2, Soft Red Winter Wheat)

Domestic Prices, All India Monthly Average(FAQ Variety)
Source: Agmark database (for Domestic Price); FAO database (for international Prices)

Domestic prices have been higher than that of International prices since June2014
onwards.
9. Minimum Support Price (MSP)
(Price in Rs./Quintal)
Year
Wheat

Table 4: The MSP of Wheat for the last 5 years

2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
1285
1350
1400
1450

2015-16
1525

Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP)

A secular increase of Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat is recorded. This figure
has increased by 18.7 percent in the last 5 years.

6|Co mmodity P rofile for Wheat -June - 2016

10.1 Wheat Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis

(Quantity in ton)
Table 5: Wheat Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis
Name of
Market

Arrivals
May,2016
( Cumulative)

Arrivals
Apr,2016
( Cumulative)

Arrivals
May,
2015
(Cumulative)

%
Change(Over
Previous
Month)

% Change(Over
Previous Year)

1472
6142
3963
5706
5360
57
16

368.34
19.85
59.10
85.49
2.60
37.45
51.85

247.88
411.28
-7.42
3.59
84.99
726.83
0.00

5119
1093
Kanpur
31400
26200
Mathura
3669
2306
Bhopal
5911
3187
Indore
9915
9664
Khanna
475
345
Nagpur
16
11
Jalana
Source: AGMARKNET and Agriwatch,

The cumulative figure for wheat arrival in major Mandis shows that Mathura was leading in
May 2016 as well as in May 2015.
So far percentage change of wheat arrivals in major domestic mandis in May 2016 over May
2015 is concerned; all the above mandis (except Bhopal) showed a positive growth.

10.2 Domestic Price Movement in Major Mandis

(in Rs/quintal)

Name of
market
Kanpur
Mathura
Bhopal
Indore
Amritsar
Khanna
Nagpur
Jalana

Table 6: Domestic Price Movement in Major Mandis

%
Prices May,
Prices
Prices May,
Change(Over
2016
April, 2016
2015
Previous
Month)
1538.5
1582.4
1479.65
-2.77
1555.4
1483.2
1352.12
4.87
1904.88
1752.82
1803.33
8.68
1632.4
1554.97
1549.64
4.98
1525
1525.02
1455
0.00
1534.42
1524.4
1451.92
0.66
2130.37
1967.83
1893.56
8.26
1853.25
1790.38
1596.94
3.51

%
Change(Over
Previous Year)
3.98
15.03
5.63
5.34
4.81
5.68
12.51
16.05

Source: AGMARKNET and Agriwatch database

Domestic price movement in major Mandis in India indicated growth in prices in May 2016
over same period in the previous year.

7|Co mmodity P rofile for Wheat -June - 2016

11. Futures prices of wheat

(Unit in USD/Ton)

Table 7: Future price

As
on
07.06.2016

Week
Ago(31.05.20
16)

Month
Ago(07.5.2016)

3 Month Ago
(07.03.16)

6 Month Ago
(07.15.2015)

1 Year Ago
(07.06.15)

% Change
over
previous
year

Jul-16

187.01

170.66

170.38

172.31

181.86

209.79

-10.86

Sep-16

190.77

174.7

174.33

175.89

185.54

212.72

-10.32

Dec-16

197.66

181.31

180.76

181.22

190.86

216.95

-8.89

Mar-17

204.27

187.65

187.1

186.09

194.63

220.35

-7.30

May-17

208.22

191.51

190.41

189.49

194.63

220.35

-5.50

210.98
193.9
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

191.6

191.6

193.16

214.47

-1.63

Contract
Month

Jul-17

Future price for wheat is expected to decrease over the previous year as shown in the Table 7.
The price fall may be as a result of increase in the expected wheat production in the world (see
Figure 2).

12. Trade Policy

12.1 Export Policy: Export of wheat is free under the extant export policy of Government of India.
12.2 Import Policy: Import of seeds is restricted. Whereas, import of wheat for human consumption is
permitted through State Trading Enterprises

HS code

Item description

10019910

Durum wheat: Of seed

quality
Other Durum wheat
Other: Wheat of seed
quality
Other wheat

10019920

Meslin

10011100
10011900
10019100

Table 8: Import Policy

Standard
Import policy
Duty

Bound
Duty

Applied duty

Restricted

100

100

100%

Free*

100

100

25%**

Restricted

100

100

100%

Free*
State Trading
Enterprises

100

100

25% **

100

100

100%

Source: Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Department of Revenue, and World Trade Organization (WTO)
database.
*Import of wheat (HS code- 10011900 and 10019910) made free till further order vide DGFTs Notification No.35 Dated
8th October 2007
** Import duty on wheat has been increased from 10% to 25% vide Notification No. 51/2015- Customs dt19thOctober, 2015
till March 2016. The said 25% duty has been further extended upto June 2016 vide notification dated 28 th March,2016.

8|Co mmodity P rofile for Wheat -June - 2016