(As on 20.06.

2016)

Commodity Profile for Cotton- June, 2016

Contents
1.

Cotton Estimates for India ......................................................................................................................2

2.

Cotton Estimates for World ....................................................................................................................2

3.

Domestic Production ...............................................................................................................................3

4.

Global Production ...................................................................................................................................3

5.

Major Exporting and Importing Countries of Cotton in the World ........................................................4

5.1

Major Exporting Countries in the World ........................................................................................4

5.2

Major importing Countries in the World ........................................................................................4

6.

Indias Major Export Destinations ..........................................................................................................5

7.

Indias Trade Flow during 2009-10 to 2015-16 ......................................................................................5

8.

Domestic Prices Movement ....................................................................................................................6

8.1

Price Movement for Raw Cotton (Kapas) ......................................................................................6

8.2

Price Movement for Cotton (Lint) ..................................................................................................6

9.

Movement of Domestic as well as International prices of Cotton ..........................................................7

10. Minimum Support Price (MSP) for Cotton during 2012-13 to 2016-17.................................................7
11.

Future prices........................................................................................................................................8

12.

Price Movement in Major Domestic Mandis ......................................................................................8

13.

Cotton Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis........................................................................................9

14.

Trade Policy ........................................................................................................................................9

14.1

Export policy...................................................................................................................................9

14.2

Import Policy ..................................................................................................................................9

1|Commodity Profile for Cotton June, 2016

1. Cotton Estimates for India (Crop Year: October 2015 to September 2016)
(Unit: Lakh Bales)
Table 1: Cotton Stock, Crop Size, Trade, and Consumption
2014-15

2015-16
(Estimated)

40.2
348.05
15.27
67.20

36.40
349.76
12.8
99.97

403.52

398.96

336.32

298.99

Particular
Opening stock
Crop Size
Total Imports
Total Exports
Total Availability for
domestic consumption

April, 2016
305.24#
5.91**
64.14**

Source
Textile Commissioner
DAC
DoC
DoC

309.69
247.01

Sources: Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC),Department of Commerce (DoC), Textile Commissioner.
# As per 3rd Advance Estimates for 2015-16, DES of 09.05.2016
For preparing estimated figure for 2015-16, Opening Stock, Mill Consumption, Small Mill Consumption, Non-mill
Consumption, Exports, and Imports have been taken for last three years average.
**Export and import is for October- April, 2015-16.

2. Cotton Estimates for World

(Unit: lakh Bales)
Table 2: Global Cotton Stocks, Production, Consumption & Export
Year Beginning
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
August 1
Beginning stock
859
1178
1322
1440
Cotton Production
1587
1542
1525
1257
Cotton Consumption
1389
1406
1410
1393
Cotton Exports
596
524
453
438
Ending stocks
1178
1322
1440
1307
Source: USDA*: Estimated Figure

During 2012-13 and 2015-16, the world production has decreased by 21% (from 1,587 Lakh
Bales to 1,257 Lakh Bales), export by 26.5% (from 596 Lakh Bales to 438 Lakh Bales).
Consumption has marginally decreased by 0.3% (from 1,389 Lakh Bales to 1,393 Lakh Bales).

Based on USDA database the world export may decline by around 15 lakh bales in 2015-16 over
the exported value registered in 2014-15. Fall in the import demand from China and excess stocks
in the markets are the contributing factors in the decline of total exports during 2014-15.

2|Commodity Profile for Cotton June, 2016

3. Domestic Production
Figure 1: Domestic Cotton Production
400
Qty in Lacs Bales

350
300

250
200
150
100
50

0
Production

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

258.84

222.76

240.22

330

352

342.2

359.02

348.05

305.24

Source: DES, Agriculture, Cooperation& Farmers Welfare

Bale=170 Kgs

The projected figure for domestic production in 2015-16 is less than that of the previous
year.

lakh bales

4. Global Production
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Figure 2: Global Production

India

China

USA

Pakistan

Brazil

Turkey

Other

Uzbekistan
2013-14

2014-15

2015-16*

Source: United State Department of Agriculture (USDA).*: Advance estimation by USDA

India and China were the top two global producers of cotton in 2015-16 followed by USA.

3|Commodity Profile for Cotton June, 2016

5.

Major Exporting and Importing Countries of Cotton in the World

Lakh Bales

5.1 Major Exporting Countries in the World

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Figure 3: Major Exporting Countries

2013

2014

2015

Source: Comtrade

USA was the major exporting country in the world followed by India and Brazil in 2015.

5.2

Major importing Countries in the World

300

Figure 4: Major Importing Countries

Lakh Bales

250
200
150
100

50
0

2013

2014

2015

Source: Comtrade

China was the largest importing country in the world followed by Vietnam and Turkey in
2015.

4|Commodity Profile for Cotton June, 2016

Indias Major Export Destinations

6.

Value in Rs Crore

Figure 5: India's Major Export Destination

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

2014-15

2015-16

Source: Department of Commerce

Indias major Export destinations in 2015-16 were Bangladesh, Pakistan and China.

Countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan and Taiwan are scaling up their cotton
imports from India to meet the requirements of their export-focused garment industries.

Chinas restrictive import policy and its accumulated stock have adversely impacted
Indias export to that country in 2015-16.
Indias Trade Flow during 2009-10 to 2015-16

7.

Year
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17(April)

Table 3: Trade Flow for India

Lakh Tons
Lakh Bales
Export
Import
Export
Import
20.13
0.78
118.41
4.59
20.15
2.16
118.53
12.71
19.41
1.78
114.18
10.47
11.43
2.58
67.20
15.22
13.46
2.32
79.17
3.64
0.62
0.25
3.64
1.47

Source: Department of Commerce

India exported substantial quantity of cotton during 2011-12 to 2013-14.

5|Commodity Profile for Cotton June, 2016

8.

Domestic Prices Movement

Rs./Quintal

8.1

Price Movement for Raw Cotton (Kapas)at major Centers during October, 2015 and
May, 2016

5500
5300
5100
4900
4700
4500
4300
4100
3900
3700
3500
19-Oct-15

Figure 6: Kapas Price Trend at Key Centers

19-Nov-15

Rajkot (BT)

19-Dec-15

19-Jan-16

Ahmedabad (S-6)

19-Feb-16

19-Mar-16

19-Apr-16

Amravati (Mech-1)

19-May-16

Hisar (BT)

Source: Textile Commissioner

Prices for raw cotton (Kapas) in major markets are showing a mixed trend.

8.2

Price Movement for Cotton Lint at major centers during October, 2015 and May, 2016

Figure 7: Lint Price Trend at Key Centers

4200
4000

3800
3600
3400
3200
3000

12-Oct-15
19-Oct-15
27-Oct-15
3-Nov-15
10-Nov-15
18-Nov-15
25-Nov-15
2-Dec-15
9-Dec-15
16-Dec-15
23-Dec-15
2-Jan-16
9-Jan-16
16-Jan-16
23-Jan-16
1-Feb-16
8-Feb-16
15-Feb-16
22-Feb-16
29-Feb-16
7-Mar-16
14-Mar-16
21-Mar-16
29-Mar-16
5-Apr-16
12-Apr-16
20-Apr-16
27-Apr-16
4-May-16
11-May-16
18-May-16
25-May-16

Rs./ Maund (of 37.32 kg each)

4400

Bhatinda

Sirsa

Source: Textile Commissioner

6|Commodity Profile for Cotton June, 2016

Abohar

Movement of Domestic as well as International Prices of Cotton

140000
130000
120000
110000
100000
90000
80000
70000
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16

Rs/Ton

Figure 8: Monthly Domestic and International Price Movement

International prices (Cotlook A Index)

Domestic Prices ( Shankar-6)

Source: International Price cotlook.com, Domestic Price- Textile commissioner

Domestic Prices have been lower than International price since October, 2014.

10 Minimum Support Price (MSP) for Cotton during 2012-13 to 2016-17

(Unit: Rupees/Quintal )
Table 4: Minimum Support Price for Cotton
Staple Size

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

Medium Staple Cotton

3600

3700

3750

3800

3860

Long Staple Cotton

3900

4000

4050

4100

4160

Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP)

An increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for both Medium as well as long staple
size cotton is recorded. This figure has increased by 7.22 percent for medium staple and
6.66 percent for long staple cotton in the last 5 years.

7|Commodity Profile for Cotton June, 2016

11 Future prices
(Unit: Rupees/Bale)
Table 5: Future Prices for Cotton
Date of
Contract

07 June
2016

06 May 2016
(1 month
ago)

7 Mar 2016
(3 months
ago)

7 Dec 2015
(6 months
ago)

07 June
2015 (year
ago)

%
Change
over a
month

%
Change
over
previous
year

July 2016
Oct 2016
Dec 2016
Mar 2017
May2017
July-2017

16397.3
16397.3
16579.0
16394.8
16496.9
16561.6

15555.8
15626.2
15440.1
15525.6
15626.2
N.A

14272.1
14249.7
14249.7
14466.2
N.A
N.A

16042.9
15903.7
15237.1
N.A
N.A
N.A

14880.9
15315.7
15006.5
N.A
N.A
N.A

5.41
4.93
7.38
5.60
5.57

10.19
7.06
10.48

Source: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Future prices for cotton are expected to increase over previous year.

12 Price Movement in Major Domestic Mandis

(Unit: Rupees/ Quintal)
Table 6: Price Movement in Major Domestic Mandis
Markets

May, 2016

April, 2016

May, 2015

% Change (over
previous month)

% Change (over
previous year)

Rajkot
Surender Nagar
Amaravati

4647.96
4532.96
4970

4579.74
4341.8
4689

4529.13
4430.31
4700

1.49
4.40
5.99

2.62
2.32
5.74

Guntur
Warangal

4247.92
4493.31

4180
4348.34

4006.25
4139.76

1.62
3.33

6.03
8.54

Sirsa
Bhatinda
Ganganagar

4919.6
N.A
N.A

4601.64
4610.46
N.A

4534.25
N.A
4006.41

6.91

8.50

Source: Agmarknet

Major domestic Mandis in India experienced an increase in prices in May 2016 over the
same period of the previous year (See Table 6).

8|Commodity Profile for Cotton June, 2016

13 Cotton Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis

(Unit:Tonnes)
Table 7: Cotton Arrivals in Major Domestic Mandis
Markets

May, 2016
(cumulative)

April, 2016
(cumulative)

May, 2015
(cumulative)

% Change (over
previous month)

% Change
(over previous
year)

Rajkot
Surender Nagar
Amravati
Guntur
Warangal
Sirsa
Bhatinda
Ganganagar

90826.5
37024.1
141513
4012.1
153939.31
68286.7
32359.4
88709.5

83696.5
36850.7
131213
3937.9
141831.21
67651.4
32359.4
88709.5

51582.1
46768.5
69123.5
9740.5
149095.1
274562.4
80959.74
132491.3

8.5
0.5
7.8
1.9
8.5
0.9
0.0
0.0

76.08
-20.8
104.7
-58.8
3.2
-75.1
-60.0
-33.0

Source: Agmarknet.

Arrivals in May, 2016 in major domestic mandis like Surender Nagar, Guntur, Sirsa,
Bhatinda and Ganganagar were less over the same period of the last year.

14 Trade Policy
14.1 Export policy

Export of cotton is free without any restrictions.

Table 8: Export Policy
Exim
Code
5201
5202
5203

Item Description

Policy

Cotton neither carded nor combed

Cotton waste (including yarn waste and garneted stock)
Cotton, carded or combed

Free*
Free
Free*

Source: Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT)

*: The registration requirement for export of cotton (HS Code 5201and 5203) has been dispensed with vide DGFTs
Notification No. 102 (RE-2013)/2009-14, dt: 8.12.2014.

14.2 Import Policy

9|Commodity Profile for Cotton June, 2016

Import of cotton is duty free without restrictions.

Exim
Code
5201
5201 00
5201 00 11
5201 00 12

5201 00 13

5201 00 14
5201 00 15

5201 00 19
5201 00 20
5202

5202 10 00
5202 91 00
5202 99 00
5203
5203 00 00

Item Description

Table 9: Import Policy

Policy

COTTON NOT CARDED OR

COMBED
Cotton, not carded or combed:
Indian cotton:
Bengal deshi
Indian cotton of staple lengths 20.5
mm (25/32) and below (e.g.
oomras, yellow picking, Assam
comillas)
Indian cotton of staple length
exceeding 20.5mm (26/32) but not
exceeding 24.5 mm (30/32)
Indian cotton of staple length over
24.5mm (31/32) to 28mm
Indian cotton of staple length
28.5mm (14/32) and above but
below 34.5mm
Indian cotton of all staple length
34.5mm and above (112/32)
Cotton, other than Indian, of all
staple length
COTTON WASTE (INCLUDING
YARN WASTE AND
GARNETTED STOCK)
Yarn waste (including thread waste)
Other:
Garnetted stock
Other
COTTON, CARDED OR
COMBED
Cotton, carded or combed

Bound
Rate

Standard
Rate

Applied
Rate

100%
100%
100%

10%
10%
10%

Nil
Nil
Nil

100%

10%

Nil

100%

10%

Nil

100%

10%

Nil

100%

10%

Nil

100%

10%

Nil

100%

15%

Nil

100%
100%

15%
15%

Nil
Nil

150%

30%

Nil

Source: Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), WTO and D/o Revenue, CBCE

10 | C o m m o d i t y P r o f i l e f o r C o t t o n J u n e , 2 0 1 6