PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

26 May 2010

Malaysia Corporate Highlights RHB Research

Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
R e su l ts N o t e Company No: 233327 -M

26 May 2010
MARKET DATELINE

KFC Holding (M) Share Price

Fair Value
:
:
RM8.50
RM9.63
Resilience From Quick Service Restaurant Business Recom : Outperform
(Maintained)

Table 1 : Investment Statistics (KFC; Code: 3492) Bloomberg: KFC MK

FYE Dec Turnover Net Profit EPS Chg PER C. EPS^ P/NTA Net gearing ROE Gr. Div.
(RMm) (RMm) (sen) (%) (x) (sen) (x) (x) (%) Yld. (%)
2009a 2,297.4 130.4 65.8 10.0 11.9 2.2 Net cash 17.6 3.1
2010f 2,650.9 152.8 77.1 17.2 10.2 73.0 1.9 Net cash 18.0 3.3
2011f 3,012.5 177.5 89.5 16.2 8.8 81.0 1.6 Net cash 18.2 3.6
2012f 3,406.5 204.6 103.2 15.3 7.6 96.0 1.4 Net cash 18.2 3.8
Main Market Listing / Trustee Stock / Syariah-Approved Stock By The SC ^ Consensus Based On IBES Estimates

RHBRI Vs. Consensus

♦ In line. KFCH’s 1QFY12/10 net profit of RM34.2m was in line with our and Above
consensus forecasts, accounting for 22.9% and 24.1% of our and consensus In Line
full year estimates respectively. As expected, no dividend was declared Below
during the quarter.
Issued Capital (m shares) 198.3
Market Cap (RMm) 1685.3
♦ Yoy, net profit increased by 19.3% on the back of higher revenue (+14.1%) Daily Trading Vol (m shs) 0.07
coupled with improvements in EBIT margin (+0.3%-pt) from cost synergies 52wk Price Range (RM) 6.51-8.50
and increase in average selling prices in Jun 09. During the quarter, all Major Shareholders: (%)
divisions showed sales improvement on a yoy basis (KFC Malaysia: +17.5% QSR Ventures 50.3
yoy; KFC Overseas: +8.8% yoy; Integrated Poultry: +5.6%; and Ancillary: Lembaga Tabung Haji 24.8
+31.9%). We believe, however, that the main contributor to the higher
revenue was KFC Malaysia, which recorded same store sales growth of 8% FYE Dec FY10 FY11 FY12
yoy and opened 5 new outlets during the quarter. EPS chg (%) - - -
Var to Cons (%) 5.6 10.5 7.5
♦ Going forward, we continue to expect FY10-12 SSS growth of 7% p.a. for
PE Band Chart
the Malaysian restaurants supported by KFCH’s on-going promotions and
“value for money” menus. In addition, we believe that its aggressive
expansion strategy will enable KFC to maintain its market share of circa PER = 14x
35%. We maintain our forecasts of 40 new outlets for Malaysia, 1-3 new PER = 12x
PER = 10x
outlets for Brunei, 2 new outlets for Singapore and 10-12 new outlets for
India for FY10-12 p.a..

♦ Risks. 1) bird/swine flu escalation; 2) escalation of corn and soybean prices,

which would eat into margins; and 3) deteriorating consumer spending Relative Performance To FBM KLCI
power, resulting in lower same-store sales (SSS) growth.

♦ Forecasts. No changes to our earnings forecast. FBM KLCI

♦ Investment case. We believe on-going promotions will help boost KFCH’s

SSS growth going forward, while its aggressive new store expansion strategy KFC Holding (M)

would help strengthen its presence in the country and enable KFC to
maintain its strong market share. We maintain our Outperform
recommendation on the stock with unchanged fair value of RM9.63 based on
unchanged 12.5x FY12/10 EPS, a 14% discount to consumer sector PE of
14.5x.
Hoe Lee Leng
(603) 92802239
Please read important disclosures at the end of this report. hoe.lee.leng@rhb.com.my

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Table 2. Earnings Review

FY December 1Q09 4Q09 1Q10 QoQ % YoY % Observation / Comments
(RMm) Chg Chg

Turnover 526.6 624.2 600.7 (3.8) 14.1 Higher revenue yoy due mainly to increase in sales from KFC Malaysia
(+17.5% yoy). SSS for KFC Malaysia grew by 8% yoy while 5 new
outlets opened during the period.

EBIT 42.8 55.7 51.0 (8.5) 18.9 Improvement in EBIT margin yoy was due to increase in selling prices
for the Malaysian outlets since Jun ’09 and better cost synergies.

Interest Expense (1.9) (1.0) (0.8) (14.3) (56.1) Lower due to lower borrowing cost.
Pretax Profit 40.9 54.7 50.1 (8.4) 22.4 Filtered down from EBIT.

Taxation (11.5) (19.2) (15.1) (21.4) 31.3

Minority Interest (0.7) (0.5) (0.8) 62.1 5.3
Net Profit 28.7 35.0 34.2 (2.3) 19.3 Filtered down from PBT.

EPS (sen) 14.5 17.7 17.3 (2.3) 19.3

DPS (sen) 0.0 16.0 0.0 - -

EBIT Margin (%) 8.1 8.9 8.4 (0.5) 0.3

Pretax Margin (%) 7.8 8.8 8.3 (0.5) 0.5
Net Margin (%) 5.4 5.6 5.6 0.0 0.2
Effective tax rate 28.1 35.1 30.1 (5.0) 2.0 Higher than statutory tax rate as certain expenses were disallowed for
(%) tax deduction.
Source: Company, RHBRI

Table 3. Earnings Forecasts Table 4. Forecast Assumptions

FYE Dec (RMm) FY09 FY10F FY11F FY12F FYE Dec FY10F FY11F FY12F

Turnover 2,297.4 2,650.9 3,012.5 3,406.5 Number of new stores 58 54 54

Turnover growth (%) 5.4 15.4 13.6 13.1 Ave revenue per outlet (RMm) 3.2 3.4 3.6
Capex (RMm) 88.6 83.0 83.0
195.5 214.8 248.4 285.2
EBIT 8.5 8.1 8.2 8.4
EBIT margin (%)

Net Interest (5.4) (3.0) (2.4) (1.7)

Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Pretax Profit 190.0 211.8 246.0 283.6

Tax (57.2) (57.2) (66.4) (76.6)
Minorities (2.4) (1.8) (2.1) (2.4)
Net Profit 130.4 152.8 177.5 204.6
Source: Company data, RHBRI estimates*

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The opinions
and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or be contrary
to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be construed as an
offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any manner whatsoever
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have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

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persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
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“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other services
from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon
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The recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows : -

Stock Ratings

Outperform = The stock return is expected to exceed the FBM KLCI benchmark by greater than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.

Trading Buy = Short-term positive development on the stock that could lead to a re-rating in the share price and translate into an absolute return of 15% or more over
a period of three months, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant an Outperform call. It is generally for investors who are willing to take on higher risks.

Market Perform = The stock return is expected to be in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark (+/- five percentage points) over the next 6-12 months.

Underperform = The stock return is expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark by more than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.

Industry/Sector Ratings

Overweight = Industry expected to outperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

Neutral = Industry expected to perform in line with the FBM FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

Underweight = Industry expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

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subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

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