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1. INTRODUCTION
The estimation of the expected runoff resulting from rainfall is very important for
flood mitigation studies. The direct runoff estimation can not only be used for flood
analysis but it is also useful for agricultural irrigation, electricity generation in many
countries. Many methods are used to predict runoff. One of these methods which, is
widely used, is the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and
its name was changed in 1994 to Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)
method (Ferguson, 1988). The NRCS-CN method estimates runoff depth by the
following equation,
(1a)
(1b)
where P is the rainfall depth (mm), Q is the Runoff depth (mm), and S is the
potential maximum storage which is given by,
(2)
where CN is the curve number parameter. Its value is extracted from the tables
formulated by the United States Department of Agriculture (see e.g. Technical
Release 55, 1986). The CN ranges from 30 to 100; the minimum values indicate low
runoff, however, the values of curve number close to 100 express high runoff. The
curve number is dependent on multi factors, for example, land use, soil type, and
moisture condition.
This method has been established by the United States Department of Agriculture
and it depends on the type of land use and land cover of agricultural watersheds in the
United States which could be different from the type of land use and land cover
characteristics in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The land cover in Saudi Arabia is
mainly mountainous with ephemeral streams, sand dunes, fine bed sediments in the
stream networks, and has sparse vegetation in the stream course.
There is a discussion in the scientific community of water resources concerned
with a capability of using the NRCS-CN method in hilly watersheds because the
method is developed for flat farmland, so it doesn't take into account hilly features
such as in KSA.
The major factors affecting runoff generation are: soil type, land use, surface
condition, antecedent moisture condition, and treatment. These factors are
incorporated in a single CN parameter. The NRCS-CN shortcomings are the
following: (1) it does not take into account the effect of spatial scale, (2) it does not
take into account the effect of rainfall intensity and its temporal distribution, (3) it is
deeply sensitive when incorporating multi factors (e.g. soil type, land use, surface
condition, antecedent moisture condition and treatment) in a single parameter; and
(4) it does not take the effect of the adjacent moisture condition into consideration
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Ebrahimian et al. (2012) studied the estimation of runoff using standard and slopeadjusted NRCS-CN method in the Kardeh watershed, northeastern Iran. The effects
of slope on CN values and runoff depth were determined using a slope-adjusted CN
equation. The correlation between estimated and observed runoff depths has r = 0.56,
at a rainfall depth P < 0.01. The results showed that the slope-adjusted CN equation
appeared to be inappropriate for runoff estimation in steep slope watersheds, the
standard CN method can be used with 55% accuracy in such watersheds for
watershed management but not for flood estimation.
Shrestha, et al. (2013) investigated the effect of slope on curve number through
experimental plots that contain maize crop. They used measured rainfall and runoff
data. The investigated watershed slopes in their study are 1%, 3%, and 5%. Applying
the infiltration test using double ring infiltrometer to the soil resulted in a soil type of
the type of a Hydrologic Soil Group C. These soils have a low rate of water
transmission (1.27-3.81 mm/hr). The results showed positive correlations between CN
and slope.
Tedela N. et al. (2012) studied the accuracy and consistency of the NRCS-CN
method using rainfall-runoff series from 10 small forested-mountainous watersheds in
the eastern United States, they used eight annual maximum series, and these series are
the basis to compare tabulated curve numbers with values estimated using five
methods. The results show that the Runoff estimates using tabulated CN are
unreliable to estimate runoff for 9 of the 10 forested mountainous watersheds. CN
chosen for the forests of the Appalachian Highlands requires independent calibration
to watersheds delegate of the regional landscape.
In this research paper, the authors have not used NRCS-CN tables to estimate
runoff based on the aforementioned method; however, the CN values are obtained
from rainfall and runoff data of a gauged watershed in the western region of Saudi
Arabia. In the current study, an attempt is made to relate the
parameter to the
morphology of the basin. To the best of the authors knowledge, this is the first
attempt to investigate such a relation. Therefore, a black box approach is followed
using regression analysis between the observed CN from rainfall-runoff events and
watershed morphometric parameters. The values of CN obtained from such study
reflect the common values that are expected to be prevailing in the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia (KSA), especially for the south western part of KSA. Yiba watershed is
utilized for such study. A complete description of such an area is given in the next
section. The proposed approach helps researchers and engineers to obtain CN values
from morphometric parameters rather than the classical method of estimation of CN
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3. DATA COLLECTION
The data in this study consists of rainfall and runoff measurements. The number of
rainfall events used for this study is around 82 events in the period (1984 -1987).
Figure 3 shows a sample of rainfall-runoff event at station SA401 which has
happened on 14 May 1985. The location of the runoff station is shown in Figure 4.
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Figure 1 a) Location of Yiba watershed, western region of Saudi Arabia b) Digital elevation
model (Modified from Elbishi, 2015).
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(a)
b)
Clock Time(hr)
Rainfall (mm)
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
0.6
4.8
6.4
2.5
0.6
0
0.0
0
1.1
Time (hr)
Q (m3/s)
17.4
17.6
17.9
18.4
18.8
19.9
20.8
21.7
23.6
23.7
23.8
23.9
24.0
24.1
24.2
24.3
24.4
24.5
24.6
0.00
19.47
41.15
32.70
23.85
3.14
2.84
2.48
0.81
0.73
0.65
0.57
0.49
0.41
0.33
0.24
0.16
0.08
0.00
c)
a)
Figure 2 a) Sample of rainfall - runoff event (14 May 1985) at station SA422. b) Table of
recorded rainfall data, c) Table of recorded runoff data (Dames and Moore, 1984).
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4. METHODOLOGY
The NRCS-CN general equation (Chen, 1982) is given by:
(3)
where P is the rainfall depth (mm), Q is the Runoff depth (mm), is the
coefficient for initial abstraction, Ia and S is the potential maximum storage.
In the current study, the estimation of CN is made through the application of the
following equations for rainfall and runoff events in the study area. Taking into
account = 0.2, Equation (3) reads,
(4)
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Station
Event
Date
14-May-84
21-May-84
20-Sep-84
05-Apr-85
20-Sep-84
05-Apr-85
CN
Event Date
CN
Event Date
CN
Event Date
CN
81
91
82
62
88
67
23-Apr-85
28-Apr-85
01-May-85
05-May-85
23-Apr-85
01-May-85
74
87
88
79
72
89
12-May-85
20-May-85
22-May-85
11-Jun-85
05-May-85
12-May-85
84
83
88
82
71
84
15-Aug-85
01-Mar-87
91
68
17-May-85
22-May-85
84
72
SA423
12-May-84
13-May-84
21-May-84
19-Aug-84
81
89
88
90
17-Nov-84
05-Apr-85
11-Apr-85
22-Apr-85
94
76
91
86
28-Apr-85
11-Jun-85
04-Sep-85
21-Sep-85
89
94
97
92
SA424
12-May-84
13-May-84
14-May-84
21-May-84
92
89
86
91
19-Aug-84
19-Sep-84
20-Sep-84
05-Apr-85
93
94
93
64
11-Apr-85
15-Aug-85
16-Aug-85
04-Sep-85
94
95
90
96
15-Apr-86
16-Apr-86
22-Apr-86
07-Jun-86
01-Mar-87
02-Mar-86
16-Apr-86
07-Jun-86
01-Mar-87
93
89
90
80
75
88
94
92
77
SA401
SA422
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Number of
rainfall (event)
Average Curve
Number ( )
Standard
deviation, , of
(CN)
Station SA 401
20
86
10
Station SA 422
Station SA 423
Station SA 424
14
26
22
84
90
91
12
9
8
Station
99
98
96
Upper and
lower limit for
68% confident
+
-
96
76
96
99
99
72
81
83
99
96
Curve Number
94
90
86
90
91
86
84
82
83
81
78
76
74
72
70
SA401
SA422
SA423
SA424
Figure 5 The average CN values and its upper and lower limits with 68% confidence.
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Morphometric
parameter
Symbol
Area
SF
BS
Shape Factor
Max stream
Slope
Basin Average
Elevation
Definition
Stations
SA401
Area (km2)
785
Basin
Slope
Shape
Factor
Basin
average
elevation(m)
Basin
Length
(km)
0.28
1.61
1056
35
SA422
322
0.33
1.67
1201
23
SA423
597
0.27
2.08
880
36
SA424
2305
0.20
2.02
771
52
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where
is a constant approached as
; and b is a fitted constant.
The least square method is used to estimate the fitting parameters. The final form
of the equation is given as,
(7)
It has been observed that the CN are highly dependent on the value of the rainfall
as confirmed by others researches such as Hawkins (1993) and Kazimierz (2010).
The equation that describes the complacent behavior is given by,
(8)
The equation gives the threshold of runoff at rainfall depth, or where P = 0.2S, the
CN value from complacent behavior cannot be used safely for design purposes
because no constant value has been clearly approached.
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CN Theory
Mean Values
CN
<
65
60
CN
<
70
75
70
CN
<
80
85
80
CN
<
90
95
90
CN
<
100
(USDA, 1986). The initial abstraction (Ia) used has the standard value of 0.2. It is
obvious, that there is an agreement between the observed CN and the theoretical CN
curves.
Figure 9 graph (a) shows a relationship between average CN for the storms at the
watershed and BAE in meters. An equation in form of
;
(9)
2
is fitted to the data under the condition given in the equation. The R for the fit is
0.99 which shows a very good relationship.
Figure 9 graph (b) displays a relationship between average CN and SF. An equation in
the form of
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(10)
2
is fitted to the data under the condition given in the equation. The R for the fit is
0.81 which shows a relatively very good relationship.
Figure 9 graph (c) shows a relationship between average CN and BS. An equation in
the form of
0.20 BS 0.30
(11)
2
is fitted under the condition given in the equation. The R for the fit is 0.87 which
shows a relatively very good relationship.
(12)
2
is fitted to the data under the condition given in the equation. The R for the fit is
0.78 which shows a good relationship.
Figure 9 graph (e) shows a relationship between CN and Area in square kilometers.
An equation in form of
;
(13)
2
is fitted to the data under the condition given in the equation. The R for this fit is
0.56 which shows a reltively moderate relationship.
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Table 6 summarizes the empirical equations derived in the current study and the
range of CN obtained under the limits of applicability of these equations. The
equations produce almost the same order of magnitude of upper and lower limits. The
average lower limit of
is 85.2 and the upper limit is 91.2. The coefficient of
variation, CV, for both minimum and maximum values is very small (CV<<1). These
results lead to a conclusion that any of these equations can be used for the estimation
of
with relatively very small error.
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Equation
= 105-0.017 BAE
= 65+12.2 SF
Min CN
Max CN
R2
85
92
0.99
1.65 SF 2 .00
85
89
0.81
Basin slope
= 103 - 55.1 BS
0.20 BS 0.30
86
92
0.87
Basin
length
= 79 + 0.243 BL
20 BL 50 km
84
91
7.08
Area
= 85+0.003 Area
86
92
7.06
Average =
Standard deviation =
Coefficient of variation =
85
0.84
0.01
91
1.3
0.014
6. VALIDATION
The validation process has been performed for the runoff volume and peak discharges
by comparing both the observed runoff volumes and peak discharges with the
computed runoff volume and peak discharges. The validation is based on the
developed formulas of CN in the current study. Equation (9) is adopted for the
validation process since it gives the highest R 2 of 0.99.
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Figure 9 Scatter plot between the observed and the computed runoff volumes.
where Qpeak is the peak discharge (m /s), A is the area (km ), and Q is the depth of
runoff (mm). Q is calculated from the curve number NRCS equation and the CN
value has been obtained from Equation (9), and qu is the unit peak discharge
(m3/s/km2/mm), which is calculated from,
qu =
(15)
where,
is the lag time (hr), L is the watershed length (m), CN is the curve
number, and H is the average watershed land slope (%).
The values of C0, C1 and C2 are constant factors which have been obtained from
Table (7).
In Figure 11, the observed Qpeak are plotted against the computed Qpeak, with an
additional virtual line of 45 degrees. It should be mentioned that a correction factor of
4.5 has been used to get a reasonable agreement between the observed Qpeak and the
computed Qpeak. The justification of this correction factor has two sides: first is that
the storm pattern in Saudi Arabia does not match the NRCS-Type II storms (Elfeki, et
al., 2013), and second is that the NRCS equation for peak discharge is derived in
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Rainfall Type
Ia/P
C0
C1
C2
0.10
2.55323
-0.61512
-0.16403
0.30
2.46532
-0.62257
-0.07020
0.35
2.41896
-0.61594
-0.08820
0.40
2.36409
-0.59857
-0.05621
0.45
2.29238
-0.57005
-0.02281
0.50
2.20282
-0.51599
-0.01259
Type (II)
Figure 10 Scatter plot between the observed runoff and computed peak discharge.
7. CONCLUSIONS
The results show that the curve number, CN, depends on the rainfall event. For Yiba
watershed and under the rainfall events during 1984-1987, the CN behavior follows
the standard regime with an approached value of 52. It has also been shown that there
is a relatively good agreement between the observed CN and the theoretical NRCSCN curves with the factor of initial abstraction ( = 0.2). The watershed parameters
have an effect on the value of the curve number. Some parameters give a strong
relation with the average CN such as the basin average elevation, shape factor, basin
slope, basin Length, and watershed area where R2 is 0.99, 0.81, 0.87, 0.78 and 0.56
respectively within some range of the specified parameter given in each equation
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REFERENCES
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
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[12]
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