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Financial market development and returns is one of the main goals for

government macroeconomic policy of every country in the world. There are

numerous reasons to why a stock returns an important role in reflecting over all

of the countries economy. The stock volatility could affect the investment

decision in capital market which led to a decrease or increase in the equity flow

depending on the risk averse of an individual.

At the present time, as the processes of world economic integration are actively

being developed, close coordination of economic systems and creation of single

markets and market infrastructure are occurring. Integration of the Russian

economy into the global economic system is accompanied by processes stimu

lating the financing of the economy primarily by means of exogenous factors

which are foreign to Russia, i.e., by the high price of oil and, correspondingly, by

a fairly large net trade balance and current accounts balance, as well as by

means of an influx of outside capital. The Russian stock market is believed to

advance not by means of internal sources but using external sources. At the

moment, there is some controversy concern ing the influence of different factors

on the develop ment of stock markets [19]. In this paper, we have analyzed the

impact of external and internal condi tions in terms of stock exchange activity

(MICEX). The goal of the research is to evaluate quantitatively the influence of

internal economic factors on the Rus sian stock market.

Literature Review:

Many studies have been extensively investigated the empirical link between

stock market return and macroeconomic factor. Since the introduction of future

market, the Arbitrage Pricing Theory(APT), developed by Ross (1976) has been

variously used to link between these factor. He states that the variance of

information flows would specify the change in stock price leading to the fact that

the future market may deliver a predictive information, this can influence the

volatility in price. In constrast, Martinez and Rubio (1989) used the APT theory in

Spanish market and they established that there was no substantial pricing

association between financial market and the macroeconomic variables. Besides,

they discovered that the multifactor-APT with macroeconomic variables fails to

explain the size effect in stock returns, and hence unable to use for prediction either

in the Spanish and UK stock market.

The APT (Ross, 1976) lays the foundation of how expected returns of a financial asset

could be explained through various macroeconomic indicators. The goals were to

clarify the expected returns over time and to find the degree and direction of impact

of these factors, taken into consideration. The following empirical studies earlier

focussed on developed countries, but quickly brought in many emerging economies.

Chen et al. (1986) linked returns on New York Stock Exchange to macroeconomic

variables like industrial production, inflation, etc. Mukherjee and Naka (1995) found

there is long-run relationship between stock returns and six macroeconomic

variables in Japan using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), including inflation,

interest rate and index of industrial production

Interest

A variety of papers have investigated the empirical link between interest rates and

stock returns. The inverse relationship between the two variables is explained by

Bernanke and Kuttner (2005), ), who consider three cases. First, higher interest rates

increase interest expenses of the firm, decreasing the cash flows available for future

dividends. Second, a change in interest rates could drive an expected rise in the real

interest rate, making future nominal cash flows less valuable to shareholders. Third,

a tightening in monetary policy could increase the expected equity premium, as

investors move away from stock investments.

For India, impact of oil price and money supply was found to be negative, while

industrial production and inflation showed positive impact. In the short run, only

inflation has a significant negative impact. Lai et al. (2013) used Vector

Autoregressive (VAR) technique to find dynamic interactions between stock indices

of Taiwan, Hong Kong and China with their respective indicators. So, empirically it

has been well established that stock indices of a country are affected by their

macroeconomic variables and have a longrun relationship with them.

According to Fisher (1930), in an efficient market, the nominal interest rate fully

reflects the available information concerning the possible future rates of inflation.

Thus, the expected nominal interest rates on financial assets should have a linear

one-to-one movement with expected inflation. Over the years, the Fisher effect has

also been extended to the stock market (Choudhry 2001). Nevertheless, empirical

studies commonly yield controversial results, mainly by finding negative

relationships between stock returns and the interest rate (Du 2006; Hondroyiannis

and Papapetrou 2006). Hasan (2008) suggests that higher interest rates can reduce

the demand for equity instruments by increasing the demand for fixed income

instruments. However, Scruggs (1998, p. 595) suggests that two distinct effects of

interest rates on stock returns have been the focus of a considerable amount of

research in finance literature. The first is the positive relationship between stock

market volatility and short-term interest rates and the second is the negative

relationship between the market risk premium and short-term interest rates (see

Campbell 1987; Fama and Schwert 1977; Ferson 1989; Glosten et al. 1993; Scruggs

1998; Whitelaw 1994). Thus, interest rates might play different roles in the stock

market performance, especially when stock market risk and volatility are considered.

Interest rate, exchange rate and inflation have some influence on the performance of

stock market. (Blanchard, 1981) described the relationship of output, stock market

and interest rates. He stated that higher stock money lowers interest rate which

means lower cost of capital and in turn causes better stock market value.

Typically, studies of exchange rate and interest rate exposure are based on

estimation of models which are extensions of the basic market model to two and

three factor models. Similarly, here, a linear factor model (Burmeister and McElroy,

1988) is used to justify the use of market returns, interest rates and exchange rates

as factors in the estimation of a model of state variables that impact all industry

sectors.

One of the most important factor is interest rate where its determine a stock

volatility, there are various view on different county (Rigobon and Sack 2004) . Fama

(1981) believe that stock prices are reflected by inflation, interest rate and exchange

rate. A research claimed that in Russia and the US, there are a single cointegrating

vector which stock prices are positively linked to industrial production and negatively

CPI and interest rate (Andreas and Peter 2009).

Accordingly, Hassan et al. (2012) used a linear regression model, they found that

there is a positive long-run connection between stock market and interest and a

negatively with exchange rate. Savasa and Samiloglub (2010) and Shabri (2007)

used the same approach studies for Turkey and Malaysia correspondingly, they found

that interest rate has a negative correlation to both long and short run on stock

market. In addition, Hosseini et al. (2011) examined a Chinese stock market appears

to have positive relationship on inflation, whereas of interest rate is positive but

insignificant.

Research conducted by Schwert (1989) revealed that variation in interest rate and

inflation has weak predictive power for stock return in the US. Hence, it will cause

movement in stock prices. Davis and Kutan (2003). A study had extended Schwerts

work in different countries and achieve the same result of where interest rate has a

negative impact (_____).

Until recently, a new study using a GARCH model proved that inflation is a significant

determinant of stock return in case of Nigeria but devise a weak effect in Brazil

(Omorokunwa and Ikponmwosa 2014). To achieve a stronger view on how interest

rate, affect various market globally, (Caner and Onder, 2015) use Vectorautoregression model in 18 emerging and 2 developed countries. The end result was

that the short-term interest contributed approximately 4% of stock market volatility

in emerging country while the it is not significant in 2 developed countries (U.S.A and

Japan).

Money supply:

Owing to a money-supply,

Fama (1981) implied the role of aggregate money supply in the context of stock

movement. The surplus of money supply generates a rise in good consumption,

hence, more money flow and investment in financial market (Moosa 1988). Mustafa

(2008) concluded that the relationship of broad money-supply (M2) does not affect

stock price(insignificant) in long-run, however it does in the short-run for the US

financial market.

In contrast, another research came up with the theory that money supply affect the

stocks return. The reason is that equity is not comparable to the consumer where

exists an ending customer, they are for reselling and speculation. However, the

result did not provide a clear symptom that investment could lead to the movement

of stocks price (Caginalp 2011)

There are opposing theories to by what means money supply affects stock market

prices which was established by the real activity theorists, Peter Sellin (2001). He

claimed that the money supply will continues to affect the market only if the

expectation of future monetary policy is rehabilitated by a modification in money

supply, where a positive supply shock will lead individuals to expect up coming

tighten policy as well as a decrease in interest rate would dampen countries stock

return. However, Keynesian ,economists argue that there is a negative relationship

between stock prices and money supply.

Many studies have been done, however, different result were achieved. The

economists involved in this discussion had disagree on the degree to which the

market is efficient, where the efficient market hypothesis hold that all available

information existing in the market is already implanted in the price in stock market.

Hence, they contend that altering in money supply would not disturb the stock return

(Corrado and Jordan, 2005). Moreover, Husain and Mahmood (2007) using VAR model

finds that money supply is negative and not a significant variable in determining

stock they concluded that that the efficient market hypothesis does hold in the real

world.

Crude Oil price effects on stocks market:

Since the famous Hamilton's (1983) research paper, there is a rising interest on the

effects of oil prices on stock market returns and on the economy.

Huang et al (1996) uses daily data to inspect the connection between the stock

markets and oil price using oil futures in the US. The observation was done by the

famous VAR model as well as a simple Bivariate model to observe the lead-lag

relationship for the daily Data. They found no significant differences in the results

between the models, where exists a relationship among the two variable. However,

these result were contradicting to that of Jones and Kaul's (1996) in that oil price

futures are insignificant variable to the overall stock market returns, apart from the

case of oil corporations.

A study which was documented by Jalolov and Miyakoshi (2007) employing an EGARCH model with a monthly data of various countries range from 1995 to 2003.

They discovered that German market is more superior predictor of Russian market

returns than the US, due to their closer relationship, both politics and investment

concerns. However, they conclude that oil and gas is not a significant though

negative variable for Russian market returns, and point out that the one-step

prediction with the EGARCH model is worse than a prediction of the random walk

model.Nevertheless, by employing a similar model, Hayo and Kutan (2005) studied

Russian stock market returns monthly by employing an asymmetric GARCH model.

Indicating that a lagged values of MICEX, S&P500 index and Brent oil price are all

significant variables of the Russian financial market.

According to Jones (2004), the raising in oil price will subject to higher in the

production cost which leads to a decrease in output of production and expect

earnings. In theory, he claimed that there are indefinite ways oil price could affect

the market, additionally, the raising oil price could also negatively impact on the

stocks return directly.

A recent study published by Filis (2009) observing the relationship of variable by

using VAR method and the cyclical components where CPI, Industrial Production,

Stock Market in Greece together with the effect of oil prices on these variables,

ranging from 1996 to 2008 are examined. He found that the Oil price exercises a

significant negative influence in the Greek financial market

Money Supply:

Over 10 years of monthly data collected from DataStream Thomson-Reuter has been

used for this study ranging from December 2005 to December 2015. This includes

Russian MICEX stock index, Interbank rate, which has been used as a proxy for

interest rates, Money supply(M1) and Brent oil price which is the one of most

influential factors affecting economic worldwide especially in Russia and Middle-East.

The stock index was arranged as the dependent variable, besides, others

macroeconomic factor represent the independent variable accordingly. Owing to the

differences in units, the raw data were transformed into percentage change by

employing this formula:

OLS model

In this paper, the relationship between variables will be examined, an ordinary least square(OLS) will be

tested to examined the vigorous relationship between Russian Stock market return(stock), interstate

rate(interest), Money supply(M1.1) and Crude-oil price (Oil).

The OLS method question are as followed:

Yi = +1X1. + 2X2 + e (i = 1, ..., N) Or Stock= + 1

Where equation.

Description of Data:

The descriptive statistics were used in this study. To evaluate the degree of

dependency between stock returns and other variable, the following technique has

been adopted: the first technique, for measuring the connection among these

variables, we have used the Pearson Correlation method. This method considerate a

degree on how strong of relationship among these variables. Another method for

measuring the significance level of these macroeconomic variables, the multiple

linear regression analysis is employed in this research. These approaches prove that

whether this variable has a positive or negative impact.

However, it is important to keep in mind that time series data analysis is subject to

the problem of spurious regression if the data is non-stationary, resulting in

unreliable results of the models constructed. So to avoid spurious regression, the unit

root test (Augmented Dickey Fuller test) will be conducted first to check if the time

series data is stationary. If the test shows that the data is non-stationary, the first

difference of the variables will be employed before conducting the 21 OLS method

Analysis Result:

Descriptive Statistics

N

Minimum

Maximum

Mean

Std. Deviation

Oil

120

-.267

.216

-.00143

.091267

IT

120

-.04530

.10030

.00042478830

.0142930582

MS

120

-.1326475

.14591897

.01345706

.040860553

SI

120

-.2877

.2206

.007689

.0795920

Valid N (listwise)

120

The table shows a summarisation of descriptive statistics for the selected dependent and

independent variables. Indicating that 120 monthly observations of all the variables have been examined to

estimate the following statistics while Mean defines the average number in the data, Standard deviation

interpretate the dispersion and range of the sequence. The maximum and minimum statistics dealings with

upper and lower bounds of the data.

The mean shows, averagely, the oil price has been decreasing with -1.4%,

highest plunge of -26.7% in one month, while other variable has a positive effect

during the study period. Although the stock return shows the detrimental of over

-28.77% in the same month. This could resulted from the Oil shock and lowering

demand of oil in the economy where Russia being one of the largest oil exporter in

the world.

oil

This shows that Stocks and Oil has the highest amplitude in comparison to the other

variable, observable through a higher standard deviation which can be observe in

the table______.

Linear Regression: OLS Method.

The next table shows the multiple linear regression model summary and overall fit

statistics.

Durbin watsion

Auto correlation:

Dur-watson is used to determine whether there is an auto-correlation issues in the

model.

Model Summaryb

Model

R Square

Adjusted R

Square

.463a

.214

.196

Std. Error of

the Estimate

DurbinWatson

0.0801499

1.514

It can observe from the table__, Durbin Watson is 1.514, this considering as fairly

low. Indicating that model is opposing an autocorrelation issue, revealing that current

variable behavior is influenced by previous data. In case of stocks return, it indicates

that previous movement would somehow impact the volatility of stock price in

following day. Hence, a one-year data lag of dependent variable was added to the

model in acquiring to solve the autocorrelation. Subsequently, the PLR* equation

would be:

After eliminating the autocorrelation by adding one more lag variable, the model

summary is achieved below:

The table shows values of R and R square which stance for multiple correlation and

coefficient of determinants. R shows the relationship degree among dependent and

independent variables while R square clarifies the amount of total variance in

dependent variable which is known by variation of the independent one. R =.569,

showing a fairly strong positive relationship between variable. Adjusted R of this

model is 0.300 with the R = .323, change in independent variable together explains

32.3% of the variance in the stock return (MICEX index).

The Durbin-Watson, a statistic test for auto correlation which has prior been

eliminated, d = 2.047, which is between the two critical values of 1.5 < d < 2.5 and

therefore we can assume that there is no first order linear auto-correlation in our

multiple linear regression data.

Linear Regression:

By using SPSS, the linear regression provides the result below:

ANOVAa

Model

1

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

Regression

.245

.061

Residual

.513

115

.004

F

13.747

Sig.

.000b

Total

.759

119

The next table is the F-test, the linear regression's F-test show if the null hypothesis,

there is no linear relationship between the variables or R=0. However, the result

shows very significant number; thus we can conclude that there is a linear

relationship between the variables in our model, thus reject the null-hypothesis.

F(2,115)=13.747 ; p<0.5

Coefficientsa

Model

1

Unstandardized

Standardized

Coefficients

Coefficients

B

(Constant)

Std. Error

.008

.006

1.173

.324

-1.127

Oil

Lag1

MS

IT

Beta

Collinearity Statistics

t

Sig.

Tolerance

VIF

1.205

.231

0.191

6.139

.083

.976

1.024

.477

-.203

-2.363

.002

.805

1.242

.395

.077

.437

5.123

.000

.807

1.239

.105

.082

.106

1.287

.201

.866

1.154

a. Dependent Variable: SI

Multicollinearity Test:

Multicollinearity is a problem that arises in the model when there is a high correlation

of at least one independent variable with a grouping of the other variables. However,

this can be interpreted from Variance Inflation Factor (VIF), as a general rule of

thumb, 0.2< VIF < 5 indicate that there are no issues regarding the multicollinearity

by indicating the magnitude of the inflation in the standard errors related with a beta

weight that is owing to multicollinearity, in this case all variable has no issues in

Multicollinearity (less than 5), hence, applicable to proceed with the analysis. Where:

The regression coefficient, B, signifies the amount the dependent variable will

change if the independent variable vary by one unit. The constant number reveals

the equations interception, indication of a 0.008-unit movement in Stock return if

the change in Interest, Money supply and Oil price are = 0, all factor remains

constant.

The p-value(sig) is the measurement of statistical significance which allows to

determine If there is a relationship between variables, it test the null hypothesis.

From the table, Money-supply significant level is 8.3% which is higher than 5% (the

optimal level used by Fisher__), but lower than 10%, therefore MS is significant at

10% interval. Additionally, Sig level of inflation and oil price are presented as .002

and .000 and deemed to be significant respectively, which are lower than 0.5,

therefore the null hypothesis for IT and Oil are rejected.

After testing the null hypothesis, B value could be considered, the table shows 1.178

for MS and .395 for Oil accordingly, this explains that both of the variable has a

positive relationship to the stocks return, where 1-unit increase in Money supply will

cause stock price to upswing by 1.178 unit in the same direction, similarly to the oil

price, where other factors are held constant. Alternatively, interest rate shows a

negative relationship to where 1-unit increase in IT, stock price will decrease by

-1.127 unit.

The following equation shows the expected stocks return by using these 3

determinants:

Improvement:

If you find a model that fits well, does that mean your predictors cause your

dependent variable? Why (not)?

Not necessarily. Think again of our three conditions. Regression models clearly

demonstrate whether or not the predictors are related to the dependent variable, so

that condition can be fulfilled. As for the condition of the relationship not being

caused by a third, underlying variable, regression does a better job than correlation

in that you can include other possible causes in the model. However, it is unlikely

that we will have included all possible variables. Finally, the time condition is not

demonstrated by regression analysis. When would you use regression rather than

correlation? Regression analysis has a number of advantages over correlation.

Firstly, it allows us to develop more accurate models by allowing us to include a

number of different predictors of an outcome we are interested in. As the relationship

of each individual predictor to the dependent variable is controlled for the

relationship with any other variables in the model, regression also gives a more

accurate picture of the strength of those

relationships. Regression analysis also provides us with a number of useful

diagnostics to test the validity of our models.

In the output we can see that Pearsons r is -.274. So there is a modest relationship

between the two variables. The significance level is .000, which means the

relationship is

highly significant (and therefore it is likely that there is a relationship between the

two

variables in the population as well as the sample). The sign is negative, which means

that

as age increases, grade point average decreases. So on average older pupils have a

Empirical Findings:

Result shows all the variables are significant to the model where R squared is 32.3 %

of the variance in stock prices are explained by the model, indicating a great result.

The result is comparable to some of the previous research and carrying a similar

result. However, in the past studies states that there is no relationship between

interest rate and Russian stocks market during the period of 1998 to 2008, yet again,

in this studies reveals that interest rate plays a major role by negatively impact the

stock market in accordance to other literature investigating another country as well

as other variable.

The multiple regression analysis, reveal a direct and a significant linkage between

MICEX index and the oil price movement in Russia with a recession correlation of .

395, in aligned with the research done by(______) indicating a positive relationship

with the stocks market. This is support by the fact that Russia is accounted as one of

the largest oil producer in the world. In addition, Russia would benefit greatly, if the

oil price increase, having Oil and Gas as their main exporting, comprising of over

70% from the total export and accounting of over 30% in country GDP. By

transferring money into the economy, indicating a good sign. Hence, induce the

investor perception causing the stock market to surge. Evidently, this can be

observing in between 2005 and 2015, during the oil price collapsing, Russian

economy was in a shock, causing its money value to declined approximately 60% to

the US dollar and the MICEX index lost 20% of its value. Nevertheless, individuals

tends to be more risk averse, they are holding cash instead of investing in an equity ,

the confidence in the market lose ,so do the price.

Interest:

Interest rate is one of monetary tools employed by Russia central bank aims to

stabilise the economy Result shows that interest has a negative impact on the stock

returns, this is in line with (____). Hypothetically, when demand surpass supply level,

the inflation will arise casing interest rate to decrease . The Policy approach would

try to increase the interest rate , hence the demand in money increases

arise, hence Central Bankmay want to stabilize economy by increasing interest rate

and as a result demand for money decrease which will eventually lead to reduction

of money in circulation. This contractionary monetary policy will have negative effect

on stock market in that, investors will prefer to invest in interest bearing assets as a

result of increase in interest rate and this will automatically reduce stock price.

Interest rate is also affects negatively on the dynamic movement of stock as it

influences the return from common stock. According to (Malkiel, 1982), this

systematic effect is caused by 2 reasons. An increase in inflation makes the value of

money decrease. Therefore, interest rate will increase afterward which will lower the

price of equity assets and also increase the borrowing cost of companies. Besides,

high inflation will force profit margin of some group of companies like public utilities

to decrease but increase the profit of natural resource industries. Similar to exchange

rate, an increase in inflation could cause both benefits and harms to different

companies in different sector in a market. Moreover, an increase in inflation rate

make high dividend paid to lower in value affecting the analysis of investors. This

causing the volatility index to increase

When the country's central bank increases interest rates. When employment and per

capita income in a country increase, the demand for its goods and services

increases, along with demand for that country's currency in the local market.

Money Supply:

prices and money supply

Model 1 shows that there is a positive relationship between changes in the money

supply and stock prices, as the coefficient for the actual change in M2 is positive.

These results support the real activity theorists argument that an increase in money

supply increases stock prices and vice versa.

The last determinant which has highest positive regression correlation amongst 3

variables (1.183) is money supply M1. Higher amount of money bumped into the

market may create wealth effect which means people have more incentive to pay

and invest more money and stock market is one of the most attractive market. The

excess of liquidity will influence the stock market. Furthermore, the tool to adjust

money supply in the market is monetary policy. The expansionary policies which

mainly lower the interest rate bring some effects to the stock market. Firstly, this will

make fixed equity like Treasury bond which is substitution channel of investment of

stock market, become less attractive. Another effect of the expansionary monetary

policy is that it will raise the incentive of investor to borrow money to invest in stock

market as the cost of borrowing decreased. Also, decrease in interest rate will reduce

the expense of enterprise in interest from banking debt thus higher the profit. These

changes would affect positively on the stock price. The reverse happens when

contractionary policy being executed to reduce money supply. Both raise the

volatility level of stock.

Several policy implications can be drawn Biniv Maskay from this study. The

government, in formulating monetary policy, must be aware of the fact that the

stock market responds more favorably to an increase in the money supply. The

government must also be conscious that stock prices tend to increase when the

government implements expansionary policy to increase GDP and decrease

unemployment rates.

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