Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.

in

FORTUNE EDITORIAL CODE + EXPLANATIONS

FEBRUARY 2016, SE T 1

Crafted by: Arjun R Shankar

Author of the History book From Cattles to Battles till the break
of colonial shackles

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

Contents

1. The One Belt, One Road opportunity: The whole Chinese

angle+ Indian implications
2. The approaches to Mosquito eradication- The challenges &
Prospects + Zika challenge
3. Deepening the French connection -INDO-FRANCE
RELATIONS
4. The 2016 World Economic Forum at DAVOSREVIEW
5. MGNREGS Appraisal-- DECADE ANALYSIS
6. IMF Quota Reforms fully explained
7. ICDS VS National Nutrition Mission: A perspective

Keep reading Fortunestroke.in

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

The One Belt, One Road opportunity (Different sources)

THE WHOLE CHINES ANGLE+ INDIAN IMPLICATIONS
China substantiated its integrated blueprint of the Silk Road Economic Belt
(SREB) and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR)the twin initiatives
covered by the conceptual umbrella of the One Belt One Road.

GEOPOLITICAL ANGLE-- SOME THEORETICAL VIEW

The well-known geopolitical theorist Halford Mackinder postulated in
1904 that the inner area of Eurasia characterized by interior or polar
drainage and impenetrable by sea-power was destined to be the Pivot
Area of world politics
Russia and China, if they came together, he predicted, could outflank the
maritime world

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In looking at the shape of the post-World War II order, he foresaw a

world geopolitically balanced between a combination of the North
Atlantic, or what he termed as Midland Ocean, and the Asian heartland
powers
In effect, he conceded that geopolitical dominance required both a
continental as well as a maritime dimension

SAUL BERNHARD COHEN's BOOK 'GEOPOLITICS' HAS

ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE
It envisages the emergence of three strategic realms this century

1. US-dominated maritime world of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific
Basin
2. Realm of Maritime Europe, organized around the European Union
3. Continental Asia geo-strategic realm covering the Eurasia landmass with
Russia as the original core

IMPORTANT OBSERVATION: China has emerged as a separate Continental

Maritime realm, shrinking the space for Russia in Central Asia and for the US in
the North Pacific.

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WHY IS THIS THEORY IMPORTANT HERE?

Against this backdrop, what we may currently be witnessing is a carving
out by China of a continental-maritime geo-strategic realm constituted
by its initiative labeled One Belt and One Road, also known as the BeltRoad Initiative and the abbreviation OBOR

WHAT IS IT? CAN YOU TELL US IN A NUTSHELL?

"One belt, one road" is a development strategy started by the Chinese
government in 2013

It refers to the New Silk Road Economic Belt, which will link China with
Europe through Central and Western Asia, and the 21st Century
Maritime Silk Road, which will connect China with Southeast Asian
countries, Africa and Europe
Neither the belt nor the road follows any clear line geographically
speaking; they serve more as a roadmap for how China wants to further
integrate itself into the world economy and strengthen its influence in
these regions." (XINHUA AGENCY)

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WHO MADE THIS VISION?

A vision document jointly prepared by a composite team from the
Ministries of Commerce, Foreign Affairs and the National Development
and Reform Commission (NDRC)a top organisation that steers the
Chinese economy

India-China Think-Tank Dialogue in Beijing, 2016: WHY IS

THIS IMPORTANT?

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Unlike at previous meets, this time the conversation cursorily engaged

with the usual tensions in the bilateral relationship; instead, the
centerpiece of all discussion was the OBOR initiative

NOW TELL US WHAT IS THIS INITIATIVE ALL ABOUT?

The belt and road run through the continents of Asia, Europe and
Africa, connecting the vibrant East Asian economic circle at one end
with the developed European economic circle at the other
On land, the initiative will focus on jointly building a new Eurasian Land
Bridge and developing China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West
Asia and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors
Both the Road and the Belt include regional loops and branches which
extend the reach of the emerging transportation networks but also serve
to tie the Road to the Belt at critical points
Thus the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is significant precisely
because the port of Gwadar is one of the points where the Road and the
Belt intersect
Of interest to India is the branch constituted by the BCIM corridor,
which proposes to connect Yunnan in southern China with Myanmar,
Bangladesh and eastern India

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WHAT IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF SILK ROAD ECONOMIC

BELT (SREB)?
It focuses on bringing together China, Central Asia, Russia and Europe
(the Baltic); linking China with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean
Sea through Central Asia and West Asia; and connecting China with
South-East Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean

WHAT IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF MARITIME SILK ROAD

(MSR)?
The 21st-Century MSR, in turn, is designed to go from Chinas coast to
Europe through the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one route,
and from Chinas coast through the South China Sea to the South Pacific
in the other

According to Zhang Gaoli, Vice Premier and head of the high level group
charged with piloting the project, its objectives are:

Enhancing policy coordination across the Asian continent;

Trade liberalization
Financial integration; and

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Connectivity including people to people links

FEW FACETS GIVING SOLID BASE TO VISION FOR 'OBOR'

1. ENTITY DIPLOMACY

The first was the novel idea of entity diplomacy: This follows from the
argument of a revival of continentalism as the Eurasian landmass
deepens linkages and Asia emerges
This construction argues for engaging within and across regions to secure
the best interests of an entity that is necessarily larger and with interests
broader than those of any sovereign
From China's perspective, Indian and other Asian nations must support
and work for the OBOR initiative

2. 'ONE ECONOMIC CONTINENT'

3. 'MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL SWAP'

India protecting Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean, and China

securing Indias essential undertakings in their part of the waters, read
the South and East China Seas

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SOME OF THE CHALLENGES OF OBOR-- DOUBTS IN

NATION's MIND
Structural challenges confront the Chinese formulations and the OBOR
proposal
The perception, process and implementation to date do not inspire trust
in OBOR as a participatory and collaborative venture
The unilateral ideation and declaration
Lack of transparency
The global world may not necessarily welcome a rules regime built on a
Chinese ethos

CHINESE REACTION
Beijing is committed to pursuing wide-ranging consultations with the 60plus nations OBOR implicates;
OBOR Think Tank is also being established to engage scholars from
these countries

CHINESE INTERESTS- TELL US SOMETHING ON THEM

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

The OBOR may also be seen as Chinas response to the more exclusive
mega-economic blocks in the making, the Trans-Pacific Partnership
(TPP) in Asia and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership or
T-TIP, both of which are led by the United States
China sees the twin-dimensional initiative as a long-term project to
secure its geo-strategic realm, which has both a continental and a
maritime dimension
It is not just an economic initiative. It has obvious political and security
implications

HOW FAR IS THIS AN ECONOMIC STRATEGY? ALSO TELL US

ON MADE IN CHINA 2025
Chinese strategic plan labeled as Made in China 2025 which seeks to
transform the country from a world factory to a world manufacturing
power, complete with innovative products and manufacturing processes.
Made in China 2025 fits in neatly with the OBOR initiative
Li Teng, the CEO of Bank of China International claimed recently that
OBOR will push China to transform from low-end commodity export to
high-end commodity exports, capital and technology exports
The OBOR is therefore part of an economic strategy that will enable
China to deal with the problem of massive overcapacity in its industry

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

One important motivation behind OBOR is to accelerate the

development of the countrys relatively poorer western and southern
provinces
A dedicated Silk Road Fund of $40 billion has also been established to
finance projects under the initiative
Part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project comprising of
roads, railways and Gwadar port totalling $11 billion will be financed
from this Fund

The OBOR initiative is underpinned by the Chinese led Asian Infrastructure

Investment Bank (capital of $100 billion), the BRICS New Development Bank
(capital of $50 billion but may rise to $100 billion) and a proposed Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation Financing Institution

A BIG CHINA- RUSSIA RELATION (OPEN HANDSHAKE)

It is apparent that China has managed to secure the participation of

Russia in the Eurasian component of the initiative, overcoming the
earlier hesitations in Moscow about China muscling Russia aside in what
the latter regards as its near neighbourhood
There are two significant energy projects linking Russia and Chin
One is the much publicised $400 million Power of Siberia pipeline and
the other is the Altai gas pipeline connecting west Siberia to China

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

However, it is reported that both these projects may be delayed due to

shortage of funds promised by China

THE MUCH AWAITED INDIAN ANGLE IN THIS-- ARE

THERE OPTIONS?
It is fair to say that China, in deploying the OBOR initiative, has demonstrated
a level of ambition and imagination which is mostly absent in Indias national
discourse
Fundamentally, New Delhi needs to resolve for itself whether OBOR
represents a threat or an opportunity
Chinese political expansion and economic ambitions, packaged as OBOR,
are two sides of the same coin
India needs to match ambition with commensurate augmentation of its
capacities that allows it to be a net security provider in the Indian Ocean
region
Currently, India has neither the resources nor the political and economic
weight to put in place competitive and alternative connectivity networks
on a global scale
For the time being, it may be worthwhile to carefully evaluate those
components of the OBOR which may, in fact, improve Indias own
connectivity to major markets and resource supplies and become
participants in them just as we have chosen to do with the AIIB.

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

Indeed, for some Chinese speakers, India is already part of the initiative,
as its own projects like Project Mausam and economic initiatives such as
Make in India and Digital India complement and complete OBOR
Indian participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and
joint ownership of the New Development Bank only reaffirm Indias
partnership in this Asian project for many in Beijing

SOME BIG INDIAN AGENDAS?

There has been much talk about India launching a Spice Route, a Cotton
Route and even a Mausam project tying the countries around the Indian
Ocean bound together by the monsoon winds

WHAT IS PROJECT MAUSAM?

Project Mausam is an exciting, multi-disciplinary project that rekindles
long-lost ties across nations of the Indian Ocean world and forges new
avenues of cooperation and exchange

The project, launched by India in partnership with member states, will

enable a significant step in recording and celebrating this important
phase of world history from the African, Arab and Asian-world
perspectives.

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

One of the main deliverables of this project is nomination of maritime

cultural landscapes across the Indian Ocean as a trans-national property
on the World Heritage List of UNESCO

WORKS AT MACRO & MICRO LEVEL

The endeavour of Project Mausam- Mausam: Maritime Routes and
Cultural Landscapes is to position itself at two levels: at the macro level, it
aims to re-connect and re-establish communications between countries of
the Indian Ocean world, which would lead to an enhanced
understanding of cultural values and concerns
While at the micro level, the focus is on understanding national cultures
in their regional maritime milieu

INDIA'S PRIORITY CHART-- WHAT CAN INDIA DO AT

THIS LEVEL?
Developing our own Andaman and Nicobar Islands as a modern transport
and shipping hub for the Bay of Bengal Basin
Develop Chahbahar port to the west with road/rail links to Central Asia

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Trincomalee port to the east, with shipping links to the Bay of Bengal
littoral ports and beyond
The Mekong-Ganga corridor linking Indias east coast with Indo-China
The Kaladan multi-modal transport corridor in Myanmars Rakhine
province, including the port of Sittwe
The proposed BCIM corridor could then become part of this broader
network

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Moving in for the kill (FEB, 05, 2015, THE HINDU +

OTHER EDITORIALS)
THE APPROACHES TO MOSQUITO ERADICATION- THE
CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS + ZIKA CHALLENGE
Only an integrated pest management programme can help reduce the mosquito
population and sustain the gains. Even a less effective vaccine can then become
a great complementary tool.

SOME OBSERVATIONS
An estimated 390 million dengue infections occurring each year across
150-odd countries

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

What does this show? -- The current mosquito control measures are
grossly inadequate to keep the Aedes species, the vector that transmits
dengue, chikungunya and Zika, under check
In Brazil, more than 1.5 million people were affected by Zika last year
The virus has now spread to more than 20 countries in Latin America and
the Caribbean

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

WHICH IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN

FIGHTING THIS?
A major constraint in the fight against Aedes aegypti has been the
vectors resistance to widely used insecticides such as organophosphates
and pyrethroids

IS THERE ANY CONCEPT OF VACCINATION? PLEASE

TELL US
Developing an effective vaccine against Zika may take years
Sanofi has recently launched the first-ever vaccine against it
It, however, has several limitations as of now
What is it? --

1. Lower efficacy against the DENV-2 serotype (dengue has four serotypes in
all) that is prevalent in India
2. Vaccine-generated antibodies that facilitate the entry of the dengue virus
into human cells

HOW TO COUNTER THIS? THERE WILL BE SOME

WAY..!!! PLEASE TELL US ABOUT SOME STRATEGY

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

THE DOMINANT LETHAL GENE STRATEGY

In this one involves the use of genetically modified male Aedes aegypti
mosquitoes that carry a dominant lethal gene

HOW DOES THIS WORK? CAN YOU EXPLAIN

The gene is passed down to offspring when they mate with wild female
mosquitoes that are not genetically altered
The lethal gene in the offspring produces a protein that stops their cells
from functioning normally by producing more of itself and prevents
other genes essential for survival from turning on

WHAT IS THE RESULT?

This prevents the mosquito larvae from growing properly and causes
them to die before adulthood, essentially breaking the insects life cycle

HOW IS THIS DOMINANT LETHAL GENE KEPT UNDER

CHECK?
The dominant lethal gene is kept under check while breeding in labs by
using tetracycline drug

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

But due to the absence of tetracycline in sufficient quantities in nature,

the larvae end up dying due to overproduction of the protein.
As male mosquitoes do not bite humans, the release of genetically
modified males will not increase the risk of dengue

WHAT ARE THE ADVANTAGES OF THIS STRATEGY?

Species-specificity
Mutant Aedes aegypti released into the wild will not breed with another
species of Aedes
Targeting the difficult-to-reach pest populations like Aedes aegypti
becomes easier and more efficient than conventional control measures
The Release of Insects carrying Dominant Lethal genes (RIDL) is a selflimiting approach

THE RELEASE OF MALE MOSQUITOES-- DOES IT HOLD

ANY PROSPECTS?
The key performance parameters for genetically modified male
mosquitoes released into the wild are

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

1. Longevity
2. Dispersal capacity
3. Mating competitiveness

The release of sterile male mosquitoes led to 80-95 per cent suppression
of the target wild population in Brazil
Radiation too can produce sterile males and has been successfully used for
controlling certain agricultural pests

IS THERE ANY OTHER STRATEGY? HEARD ABOUT A

WOLBACHIA METHOD. WHAT IS IT?
It is an approach successfully tested in the northern Australian city of
Cairns is to block dengue transmission to humans
In this the replication of the dengue virus and its spread inside the body
of the mosquito is reduced

HOW IS THIS DONE?

By introducing a life-shortening Wolbachia (a diverse group of
intracellular bacteria) bacteria strain into male and female Aedes aegypti
mosquitoes

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While embryos from uninfected wild females fertilised by sperm from

Wolbachia-infected males fail to develop, embryos from infected females
fertilised by infected or uninfected wild males survive
Since Wolbachia is maternally inherited, infected females pass on the
bacteria to offspring immaterial of which male mosquito it mated with

WHAT IS THE RESULT THEN?

When male and female mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia are released
spatially apart to breed with wild mosquitoes in an area, the bacteria
spreads rapidly in the mosquito population there
The release of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes is ongoing
in dengue-endemic countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil

ZIKA- W.H.O DEFINITIONS & TAKES PRESENTED

ZIKA ANGLE- FULLY LOADED
Zika virus disease is caused by a virus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes.
People with Zika virus disease usually have a mild fever, skin rash
(exanthema) and conjunctivitis
These symptoms normally last for 2-7 days

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

There is no specific treatment or vaccine currently available

The best form of prevention is protection against mosquito bites
The virus is known to circulate in Africa, the Americas, Asia and the
Pacific
Genre: Flavivirus
The incubation period (the time from exposure to symptoms) of Zika
virus disease is not clear, but is likely to be a few days
Zika virus is transmitted to people through the bite of an infected
mosquito from the Aedes genus, mainly Aedes aegypti in tropical regions
This is the same mosquito that transmits dengue, chikungunya and
yellow fever

HISTORY PLEASE
Zika virus is an emerging mosquito-borne virus that was first identified
in Uganda in 1947 in rhesus monkeys through a monitoring network of
sylvatic yellow fever

It was subsequently identified in humans in 1952 in Uganda and the

United Republic of Tanzania

Outbreaks of Zika virus disease have been recorded in Africa, the

Americas, Asia and the Pacific

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

IMPORTANT SIGNS
During large outbreaks in French Polynesia and Brazil in 2013 and 2015
respectively, national health authorities reported potential neurological
and auto-immune complications of Zika virus disease
Agencies investigating the Zika outbreaks are finding an increasing body
of evidence about the link between Zika virus and Microcephaly
However, more investigation is needed before we understand the
relationship between Microcephaly in babies and the Zika virus

WHAT IS THIS MICROCEPHALY?

Microcephaly (my-kroh-SEF-uh-lee) is a rare neurological condition in
which an infant's head is significantly smaller than the heads of other
children of the same age and sex
Sometimes detected at birth, microcephaly usually is the result of the
brain developing abnormally in the womb or not growing as it should
after birth

HOW IS ZIKA DIAGONOSED?

Zika virus is diagnosed through PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and
virus isolation from blood samples

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

Diagnosis by serology can be difficult as the virus can cross-react with

other flaviviruses such as dengue, West Nile and yellow fever

SOME RANDOM PREVENTION STEPS

Prevention and control relies on reducing mosquitoes through source
reduction (removal and modification of breeding sites)
Reducing contact between mosquitoes and people
Using insect repellent; wearing clothes (preferably light-coloured) that
cover as much of the body as possible; using physical barriers such as
screens, closed doors and windows; and sleeping under mosquito nets

IMPORTANT OBSERVATION
Active Zika virus has been detected in saliva and urine, Brazilian
scientists say
The finding does not mean the virus can be readily transmitted through
these bodily fluids
The US has advised men to abstain from sex or use condoms after visiting
affected countries, if their partner is pregnant

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

Deepening the French connection (FEB, 01, 2O15, THE

HINDU + OTHER SOURCES)

INDO-FRENCH RELATIONS
President Franois Hollandes visit is the fifth such by a French leader to have
been honoured as the chief guest at the Republic Day. The India-France
strategic relationship has generated a sense of comfort between the relevant
government agencies

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

THE IMPORTANT THING TO BE NOTED

This annual summitry highlights the expanding areas of cooperation and
convergence between the two countries.

TELL US WHAT HAPPENED THEN?

India has entered into more than three dozen strategic partnerships, but
France remains the original one.
President Jacques Chirac had a long-standing interest in India and
undertook three visits to India, in 1976, 1998 and 2006

CHIRAC WAS A GREAT MAN..!!! LOT OF THINGS

INITIATED-- LEGACY PLEASE
More areas of strategic partnership were developed
Opened greater dialogue process with India
Was keen and was in great appreciation of Indias security predicament
arising from the unbridled nuclear proliferation that had taken place in
our neighbourhood

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WHAT ELSE? ROBUST STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP MOOTED-WHAT ARE THEY?

Counter-terrorism
Intelligence sharing
Cyber-security issues
Nuclear issues
Space
Defence related matters
Climate change
Sustainable development
Economic cooperation
Urban development
Human resource development
Heritage preservation and cultural cooperation

THE CHARLIE HEBDO EFFECT...!!! MAKING CHANGES IN

FRANCE's THINKING
There is a realisation of vulnerability on account of the alienation in the
French Muslim community
Growing appeal of the ideology of global jihad is a real threat

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

Came up with a 'Standalone Joint statement on Counter Terrorism

'Standalone Joint statement on Counter Terrorism- Whats

the tagline?
Comprehensive approach
Removes any distinction between al-Qaeda and the terrorist groups
targeting India
Calls on Pakistan to bring to justice the perpetrators of the Mumbai
attacks

NICE THINGS FOR INDIA-- WHAT ARE THEY?

NUCLEAR ANGLE?
Big push has been given to the Jaitapur nuclear plant negotiations
Affirmation of six European pressurised reactors which should help in
bringing the cost to below $5 billion for each reactor

SPACE ANGLES
To mark 50 years of India-France space cooperation

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Cooperation between the Indian Space Research Organisation and the

French government space agency, Centre national dtudes spatiales
(CNES)
Cooperation in Environment and weather monitoring
Mapping of water resources
Joint Thermal Infrared Earth observation mission

OTHER STRATEGIC TIES

Decision to purchase 36 Rafale combat aircraft in a flyaway condition,
has been taken forward
Joint ventures (JV) proposed to be set up between private sector entities
in both countries that can provide a much needed boost to Make in
India in defence
Agreement on Defence Cooperation, originally signed in 2006 is now
extended till 2026
Homeland security
Cyber security
Special forces like the National Security Guard and its French counterpart
GIGN, and intelligence sharing to tackle the common threats of terrorism
and global criminal networks
Internet governance
Maritime security in the Indian Ocean region

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

Safety of sea lanes

Tackling piracy
Enhancing maritime domain awareness

BUSINESS ANGLES & TIES

Biggest problem existing now-- Economic and trade relations as well as
the people-to-people exchanges are lagging
Policies will be taken to fix them
More French foreign direct investment- Already success in India
Examples are Alstom, Airbus, Schneider, Alcatel, Total, BNP Paribas,
LOral, Renault, Sanofi Aventis, Veolia, Engie (GDF Suez), Thales, Vinci,
etc. Capgemini
Smart Cities initiative
French funding in Nagpur, Chandigarh and Puducherry

NB: The challenge is to develop viable public-private partnerships that can

generate long-term funding

EDUCATIONAL TIES
Educational exchanges and skill development

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

Create a resource pool as Indo-French JVs generate greater employment

opportunities
Allowing larger number of French youth to intern in enterprises in India
Easing visa norms for Indian students to work for two years after
completing their education in France
Restructuring the budgetary provisions of Indo-French Centre for the
Promotion of Advanced Research that has been in existence for nearly
three decades
Conduct more Cultural festivals

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

The 2016 World Economic Forum at DAVOS-REVIEW (From many sources)

The annual event in the highest town in Europe is the ultimate gathering of
top figures in realms including politics, business and showbiz

WHAT ABOUT THIS YEAR? ANYTHING IN

PARTICULAR?
This years meeting has a distinct focus on technology, as highlighted by
theme, Mastering the Fourth Industrial Revolution."

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

WHAT WERE THE 3 DIMENSIONS OF THE MEETING?

1. The current geopolitical situation in the world
2. Economic, social and environmental issues such as how to implement the
Paris climate agreement
3. The fourth industrial revolution and its impact on governments, business and
society

TELL US ABOUT ANNUAL GLOBAL RISK REPORT

Ahead of the annual meeting, the World Economic Forum released its
annual Global Risks Report
Large-scale involuntary migration was the most likely danger faced by
the world in 2016
Around 60 million people were forcibly displaced in 2014, according to
the United Nations. Thats 50% more than in 1940
The report examined 29 separate global risks assessed by almost 750
experts

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

WHAT IS THE MOST RISKIEST?

Risk with the greatest potential impact in 2016 was a failure of climate-change
mitigation and adaption despite the landmark climate change agreement in
Paris late last year agreed by nearly 200 countries

WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT 4TH INDUSTRIAL

REVOLUTION?
According to WEF, we are on the cusp of a Fourth Industrial Revolution
that will fundamentally change the way we work and live in the coming
decades

WHY IS THERE A REVOLUTION ANGLE INVOLVED IN

THIS? CAN YOU PLEASE TELL US ABOUT IT
First Industrial Revolution introduced steam-powered and mechanized
production.
The Second Industrial Revolution introduced electric power and massproduction processes.
The Third Industrial Revolution introduced the digitalization of
technology.

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

"Now a Fourth Industrial Revolution is building on the Third

The digital revolution that has been occurring since the end of the last
revolution. It is characterized by a fusion of technologies that is blurring
the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres."

LETS PUT THE INDIAN ANGLE INTO THIS

This years Davos push, led by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, has stirred
memories of the ill-fated and extravagant 2006 India Everywhere marketing
campaign that had aimed to showcase a resurgent India as a destination for
foreign investment to rival China.

INDIA AND WEF- SOME RANDOM LEGACY

India became important in Davos when Indian companies became
important members of WEF
This started to happen after the licence raj ended and the growth rate of
Indias economy tripled and quadrupled.
Indian companies which in licence raj days functioned with their hands
tied and feet shackled became suddenly free to grow and led the boom
that the economy experienced between 1995 and 2005

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

Indian companies pooled their efforts and money to lay on a spectacular

show that was called India Everywhere.
And India was indeed everywhere that year

IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS
India was on Thursday ranked 22nd on an inaugural list of the world's
best countries, which was released here on the sidelines of WEF Annual
Meeting and is topped by Germany
China is ranked 17th on the list, which ranked 60 countries on the basis
of sustainability, adventure, cultural influence, entrepreneurship and
economic influence.
Apart from Germany being in the first position, other countries in the top
five are Canada (2), the UK (3), the US (4) and Sweden (5)
The other BRIC emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India and China are wrestling with problems
The first two are in a second year of recession, while this week China
posted its weakest growth in 25 years
India has finally taken on the mantle of the worlds fastest growing big
economy
Foreign investment flows into India jumped 75 per cent over 2015
UNCTAD

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1,400 global CEOs found India to be the rare bright spot among big
economies, with rising confidence in short-term sales growth

INDIA IN THE LAST YEAR-- WHAT IS THE WORLD

RESPONSE?
Last year India guaranteed that the retroactive tax would not be used

(WHAT IS THIS RETROACTIVE TAX?)

But since he had not removed it in his first budget, it sent mixed signals

POSITIVE COMMENTS FOR INDIA

Its macro fundamentals are strong
The balance of payments is healthy

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The current account deficit is down to 1 per cent

The fiscal deficit is on track to reach its target of 3.9 per cent of GDP
Inflation is in check and, on a trade-weighted basis, the rupee exchange
rate is not a cause for worry

PROBLEMS FOR INDIA

Key reforms on land and tax remain elusive
Latest data, showing a 15 percent year-on-year decline in exports, is proof
enough that India cannot escape the fallout of a global slowdown
stemming from China
India ranked 130th in the World Banks latest survey on ease of doing
business
Growth is not generating enough jobs and the numbers of unemployed
and underemployed are increasing
Private sector investments have dried up in the face of over-capacity
&High debt and slackening demand
The public sector has not taken up the investment slack
The banks are loaded with non-performing assets
There is a gap between the rhetoric of structural reform and the reality
on the ground

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

A SMALL CHINESE ANGLE- IS THINGS THAT BAD?

The global economy is in trouble
Recession of 2016 will be worse than the financial crisis of 2008.
China was the locomotive engine of global manufacturing for more than
two decades
But its engine has now slowed in the face of declining demand, rising real
wage rates and a shaky banking structure

WHAT IS THE RESULT THEN?

This slowdown has compelled it to transit from an export- and manufacturingled model to a domestic- and services-driven platform

OTHER WORLD ECONOMY ANGLES

The five oil producers in the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, Kuwait
and Bahrain), for instance, had a combined fiscal surplus of around $600
billion three years ago
Today, they are struggling to manage a deficit of approximately $400bn
a turnaround of nearly $1 trillion
The Russian economy is on the skids

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

The Nigerian currency naira has been hammered down against the dollar
Venezuela is close to declaring a sovereign default

MGNREGS APPRAISAL (THE HINDU+ INDIAN EXPRESS+

BUSINESS STANDARD+ OTHER SOURCES)
It is now a decade since the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment
Guarantee Scheme was launched, and it can be said with reasonable assurance
that the programme has been largely successful in living up to what it set out to
do: provide employment to Indias rural poor and improve their livelihoods

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

POSTIVE THINGS..!! AFTER ALL ITS BEEN A DECADE

MGNREGS has served as a source of employment for the poor in distress
situations such as drought, crop failures and lean rural employment day
Helped raise rural wages steadily over time
Built rural assets such as irrigation canals and roads have augmented local
infrastructure
Rural connectivity works, undertaken on a massive scale within the
MGNREGA, improve economic opportunities for all, especially by
increasing the access to markets for farmers
Lead to the initiation of some form of public transport (such as shared
tempos)
Made government services (such as hospitals) more accessible
The creation of public roads also reduces disputes on the right of way,
especially for Dalits

NEGATIVE ASPECTS/REAL SITUATION

Skeptics of the spending programme, launched in 2006, had raised
concerns that it would be yet another opportunity for middlemen to
pocket funds
Not a demand-driven scheme as expected

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

More prone to leakage

The efficiency of implementation of the scheme varies across States
There is a degree of wastage of resources
There is an issue with delayed payments, works undertaken have not
held up in some States

GOVERNMENT ANGLE- ITS ROLE & ACTIVITY

APPRAISAL PLEASE
Last five years there has been sluggishness in MGNREGSs
implementation
Ups and downs in the Central outlay for the scheme
Delays in releasing funds to States for wage payments
Both the Congress-led UPA in its second term in government and the
current BJP-led regime have been less than enthusiastic about the need
for the scheme

WHAT ARE THE RESULTS OF THIS?

Relative slack in demand and consequently a drop in the work hours
Even a decline in the average rural wage rate increases in these years

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

MGNREGA OBSERVATIONS- LETS GET SOME LIGHT

MGNREGA performance in 2009-10. First, 48 per cent of workdays are
ghost days; that is, unaccounted for by households themselves
In economic parlance, the ghost jobs are called leakage
58 per cent of the MGNREGA payments went to the not-poor.
For 2011-12, University of Maryland-NCAER household survey: Every
100 MGNREGA jobs provided, an overwhelming proportion, 75 per cent,
went to the not-poor

SOME POSITIVE FEEDS ABOUT MGNREGA FROM

SELECTED AREAS OF INDIA
In Nadia (West Bengal), digging an irrigation channel through fields has
helped to bring the fields under cultivation
In Tamil Nadus Tiruvallur district, clearing bushes and grass in existing
channels ensured better drainage
Bundi (Rajasthan) in the Chambal river area, is a well-watered district in
an otherwise water-scarce state. The MGNREGA has been used
for the maintenance of the canals, ensuring better water supplies to
farmers and fewer disputes

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

In the Sundarbans, there were three interesting categories of mud works.

One, building embankments to prevent high tide and flood waters from
inundating habitations
Two, flood protection works
Three, for the longer term, the MGNREGA is being used for mangrove
forest rejuvenation to reduce erosion
In several states (including Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu and Tripura),
working with the fisheries department, fingerlings have been introduced
into MGNREGA ponds
In Chitradurga (Karnataka), the MGNREGA has been used to recharge
public borewells, an important source of water supply
In Jharkhand, one lakh wells were sanctioned through the MGNREGA
In Pali (Rajasthan) and Bankura (West Bengal), MGNREGA labour is
being used for brick-making

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

IMF QUOTA REFORMS (FROM VARIOUS

EDITORIAL SOURCES)
Finally, the International Monetary Fund has made country quota reforms
agreed by the G20 in 2010 a reality

WHAT WAS THE PROBLEM BEFORE?

Serious objections from the US side

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

WHAT NOW?
The chief objector to the changes, the U.S. Congress, dropped its
intransigence in December and allowed the multilateral lender to adopt a
country quota distribution that better reflects the power balance of
emerging markets in the global economy

WHAT IS AN 'IMF' QUOTA?

IMF member countries are each assigned a quota a value of its share in
the IMF financing system that is tied to its impact on the world economy
A countrys quota at the IMF determines its voting power, the amount of
financial resources it must provide to the IMF and its access to IMF
financing
The larger a countrys quota, the more say that country has in the
governance of the international financial institution
Quotas are based on a weighted average of GDP, openness, economic
variability and international reserves
They are expressed in a value known as Special Drawing Rights, an
international reserve asset determined by the value of the U.S. dollar,
euro, Japanese yen and pound sterling

The United States currently has the largest quota, with SDR 42.1 billion, or
approximately $59 billion.

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

SO TECHNICALLY WHAT EXACTLY HAS

HAPPENED?
6 percentage points of the quota, including both the Funds capital and its
proportionate voting rights, have been transferred from developed to
emerging economies
The combined capital of IMF, that its 188 member-countries contribute
will increase to approximately $659 billion from nearly $329 billion

WHAT IS THE IMMEDIATE RESULT THAT CAN BE

DRAWN?
Quota shares of traditionally strong economies such as the United States,
Saudi Arabia and European countries will be diminished in most cases
by marginal amounts of less than half a percent
The quota shares of the poorest member countries will largely remain the
same

WHAT EXACTLY IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF IMF QUOTA

REFORM?

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

This latest reform will boost the quotas for all 188 members, doubling the
overall quota resources for the IMF
Much of these added resources will come from extra funding that many
member countries contributed to the IMF after the global financial crisis
of 2008, and will boost the financial power of the institution to respond
in times of financial crisis
The reform will also give emerging economies such as Brazil and China
larger quota shares at the institution
This means that relative to other member countries all of which are
gaining larger quotas emerging market countries will have an
increased share of the total quotas available

DIFFERENT COUNTRIES ANGLE- CAN YOU PRESENT

THAT?
The redistribution of quota shares means that China will jump from the
sixth to the third largest member country, behind the United States and
Japan, according to the IMF. Chinas quota share will increase by more
than 2 percent
Saudi Arabias share will drop by nearly a full percentage point, placing it
below India, Russia and Brazil
China and Russia are among the 10 largest shareholders but as a result of
reforms Brazil and India will join that group as well

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

Other winners are India and China, who have respectively increased
their voting shares by 0.292 and 2.265 percentage points

IS THERE ANY CHANGE IN THE SELECTION PROCESS?

The selection process for executive directors on the IMF's board will
change
Once the reforms are in place, all positions will be determined by
election, rather than the previous system where the member countries
with the five largest quotas would each appoint an executive director

IMF's BELIEF ABOUT INDIA- INDIAN ANGLE

"The IMF is quite bullish about India, and our forecast for 2016, 2017 is
7.5 percent growth," Lagarde said in response to a question
"IMF also believe that the monetary policy, the taming of inflation is also
going to benefit the very large domestic market of India,"
Consumption is also going to be one of the key drivers

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

AFTER ALL WHY DO WE NEED SUCH A REFORM IN

IMF?
IMF shareholders decided the reforms were necessary in order to more
accurately reflect the growing global influence of emerging market
economies, and to boost the IMFs legitimacy as a global financial
institution.
The reform will boost the IMFs core resources, which will allow it to
more effectively respond to financial crises
The reform will strengthen the IMF in its role of supporting global
financial stability.

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

ICDS VS NATIONAL NUTRITION MISSION (INDIAN

EXPRESS + QUINT+OTHER SOURCES)
ICDS, the primary scheme targeting malnutrition, needs to be broadened with
the help of the National Nutrition Mission

THE VIEWS
Several discussions on the word malnutrition, which can technically
mean over-nutrition, as well as under-nutrition

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

We loosely use the word malnutrition, but there are three specific
indicators under-weight, stunting and wasted, although they are
correlated
Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have been accepted now, leading
up to 2030

On September 25th 2015, countries adopted a set of goals to end poverty,

protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all as part of a new sustainable
development agenda. Each goal has specific targets to be achieved over the next
15 years

2025 IS A REFERENCE YEAR FOR NUTRITIONAL

TARGETS- TELL US SOMETHING ABOUT IT
There are 6 targets

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

1.40 per cent reduction in the number of under-five stunted children

2.30 per cent reduction in low birth weight
3. Reduction and maintenance of childhood wasting to less than 5 per cent
4. Increasing the rate of exclusive breast-feeding in the first six months to at
least 50 per cent
5. 50 per cent reduction of anaemia in women of reproductive age
6. The last of global nutrition targets is on over-weight children

A SURVEY ANALYSIS- A REMINDER

In February 2015, the ministry of statistics and programme
implementation (MoSPI) published a country report on Indias progress
towards the MDGs (Millennium Development Goals), the precursor to
the SDGs
It is estimated that in 1990, the proportion of underweight children
below three years was 52 per cent. In order to meet the target (MDG),
the proportion of under-weight children should decrease to 26 per cent
by 2015
The National Family Health Survey shows that the proportion of underweight children below three years declined from 43 per cent in 1998-99
to 40 per cent in 2005-06

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

THE BIG QUESTION ASKED HERE

Does the ICDS, the primary scheme directed against malnutrition, work well?

Probably not, otherwise, the National Nutrition Mission (NNM) wouldnt

have started

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION? A FEASIBLE ONE?

Health being a state subject, something like the NNM or its counterpart
needs to not only zero-in on broadening the ICDS
Ensure focus on specific districts (you can take your pick on whether the
number is 100 or 200) and under-three malnutrition
We need counterparts not just at the state level but also at the levels of
the district, block and even Anganwadi
For an effective working strong strategies and broadening of the ICDS is
needed
ICDS, the primary scheme targeting malnutrition, needs to be broadened
with the help of the National Nutrition Mission

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

TELL US SOMETHING ABOUT ICDS

The Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) scheme is the largest
program for promotion of maternal and child health and nutrition not
only in India but in the whole world
The scheme was launched in 1975 in pursuance of the National Policy for
Children
ICDS is a multi-sectoral program and involves several government
departments
The program services are coordinated at the village, block, district, state
and central government levels
The primary responsibility for the implementation of the program lies
with the Department of Women & Child Development at the Centre and
nodal department at the states, which may be Social Welfare, Rural
Development, Tribal Welfare or Health Department or an independent
Department

WHAT ABOUT THE BENEFICIARIES?

The beneficiaries are children below 6 years, pregnant and lactating
women and women in the age group of 15 to 44 yrs
The beneficiaries of ICDS are to a large extent identical with those under
the Maternal and Child Health Program

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

The program provides an integrated approach for converging all the basic
services for improved childcare, early stimulation and learning, health
and nutrition, water and environmental sanitation aimed at the young
children, expectant and lactating mothers, other women and adolescent
girls in a community

TELL US SOMETHING ABOUT THE NATIONAL

NUTRITION MISSION
The centre decided to launch a national nutrition mission to address the
problem of malnutrition among pregnant women and adolescent girls
West Bengal was chosen as the first nodal state in the beginning
The National Nutrition Mission was aimed at employing technology and
a five-tier mechanism to monitor the supplementary nutrition program
for children between 0- 6 years
Under the scheme Anganwadi workers were to be provided with tablet
devices and weighing scales linked to GPS to monitor nutrition levels on
a regular basis
To test the quality of food being supplied, nutrition laboratories were to
be set up under the Integrated Child Development Services
(ICDS)

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

There are two components of the National Nutrition Mission as follows:

1.

Information, Education and Communication (IEC) Campaign against

malnutrition
2.

Multi-sectoral Nutrition Programme

The key objectives of these programmes are as under:

To create awareness relating to malnutrition amongst pregnant women,

lactating mothers, promote healthy lactating practices and importance of
balanced nutrition;
To improve maternal and child under-nutrition in 200 high burdened
districts and to prevent and reduce the under-nutrition prevalent among
children below 3 years;
To reduce incidence of anaemia among young children, adolescent girls
and women

HOW IS IT COORDINATED AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL?

The programme envisages coordinated action at the Central and State
levels for affirmative multi-sectoral action in fulfilling the objectives

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

An Inter-Ministerial Coordination Committee (IMCC) headed by Cabinet

Secretary at National level has been created for coordination at National
level

STATE LEVEL
At the State level, the State Nutrition Council headed by the Chief
Minister would be the highest body for providing policy direction and
oversight to the Multi-sectoral Nutrition Programme
The State Nutrition Council would be assisted by the Executive
Committee headed by the Chief Secretary of the State

IN 2015 THERE WAS A FUND CRUNCH REPORTED.

WHAT WAS THAT?

Arjun R Shankar-- Fortunestroke.in

The Rs 18,000-crore National Nutrition Missionpiloted by the ministry

of women and child developmentappears to be in jeopardy with the
expenditure finance committee rejecting the plan

More Summaries in the similar manner will be prepared for Prelims as well as
Mains. Fortune stroke also has a twin column called MAINS BANKER
Question Series. We request you to read this column as there are ample
questions in that. You can combine both the columns and read. You can use
this summary series to answer many of the questions in that series.

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