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Since Habeeb mentioned GBPJPY can be quite a meanie, I wanted to show the
last two trades I took on it. Turns out the first one was an excellent (perhaps
A?) trade, but I closed it early and the second one happened today and once
again I wussed out too soon.
There is a very, very important lesson here: LET YOUR PROFITS RUN. :S
Can't emphasize this enough for these cross-pairs...
Trail a stop under the daily and let that catch it for example...
A good place for a stop once it passed my 0.0 fib line would have been just
below that TBH that price formed there at 228.98, I can see that now in
hindsight...but we're always smarter then
The trick is that these Yen crosses basically really only know one direction as
long as the BOJ rates are low and steady, and that is up.
So taking trades on these pairs after getting bullish pins or IB breaks seems to
be the way to go. Shorting seems fatal in almost all cases.
habeeb
Member Since Aug 2005
Novice
#1587
768 Posts
Thought I'd throw a chart to start the day off. Pin on Nasdaq100. Not at an
extreme high, but off the trendline of the recent uptrend.
habeeb
#1588
768 Posts
Huge BeOB on cable. Might see the Daily Pivot tested. Looks like we're going to
have one of those crazy weeks.
habeeb
Novice
#1600
768 Posts
bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
2,169 Posts
Quote:
against support areas like that . A few pips below the pin would have been good
(Once price had moved up away from the pin again) The pair has already moved
through two pivot levels, I already consider that a good move. Anything else is a
bonus. Another tactic is to trail just behind the previous pivot level (previous solid
line). ...that would have kept us in the trade for this day.
I'd be out at the break below this point , though.
Point "4" --- I've marked point 4 to illustrate another good entry oppurtunity as
described by Habeeb. ...Waiting for a retrace to the pivot before entering. I've
learnt to get in later at a worse price and play the break of the peak rather than
risk the return being an actual reversal. ...For now . Still learning. I wouldn't have
been awake to take that trade and it's the wrong time of day anyway.
Don't trade like this. I only know a handful of setups so far myself that I trade.
You have to study them for a long time. There's a lot of the "Language" or
technique to learn before attempting this. I intend to get a better understanding
over time, but I'd rather continue on with larger time frame charts and techniques
(Playing daaily pins etc), and using pivots mainly for fine tuning profit points etc.
Hope this helps...
, Bundy
bundyraider
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
2,169 Posts
bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
#1632
2,169 Posts
As MoneyBags pointed out, there is a Pin on the daily chart for GBP/JPY.
Here's the chart with a few of my observations...
The pair's been happy to make the 61.8 Fib expansion (of the yellow A-B-C move)
and the daily pin looks to set us up for a short trade.
The dark green dotted line is the 38.2% ret. level of the Pin bar itself and the pair
seems to be finding resistance at this moment in that exact area.
First target I'll be looking for here is the purple line. A confluence of the 38.2% fib
and resistance come support from a previous peak.
EDIT: By the way, there is MACD divergance on the 4 hour.
bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
2,169 Posts
mike w
Member Since Jul 2006
Member
#1691
4,088 Posts
Hi there, quick question and i figured you guys would know best about this.
Should a pin bar that is created because of a news rally be considered void?
Because if so there is one on the GBP/USD.
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,653 Posts
Hey, a pin bar is a pin bar. Its where it is and what time of day that makes it
more important to me. I personally dont take new trades around this time of
day because everything thins out or just trickles real slow. I want some *umph*
behind my trades lol
bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
#1710
2,169 Posts
bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
2,169 Posts
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
#1714
5,653 Posts
james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN
#1729
2,608 Posts
divergence is a great tool. one of the best in my opinion. the problem is you
dont know when price will comply. use support and resistance and/or price
action to help you determine when and where price may finally go along with
what the divergence is telling you. this like anything else can really help you
WHEN you have practiced it enough to feel comfortable pulling the trigger. many
wealthy commodity traders dollar cost average when they see strong divergence
on long term charts knowing that sooner or later price will follow. i dont suggest
that but using s/r and price action can really help determine when to get in.
bundyraider
Member Since Feb 2006
'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
2,169 Posts
When looking for divergence on your different time frames you aren't supposed to
be looking for the same information. You should be trying to find what's
happening in the larger picture for instance.
Weekly GBPCHF
WELL WELL, look at this ...We have divergence forming on the weekly chart!
Couldn't have found a better example there GT. You've made it easy choosing
this pair.
habeeb
Member Since Aug 2005
Novice
#1743
768 Posts
4hr Pins on all the majors. Looks like we've got ourselves a double bottom on
cable.
habeeb
Member Since Aug 2005
Novice
#1799
768 Posts
mbqb11
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#1890
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mbqb11
#1908
5,658 Posts
Hey great entry. TP is one of those things you have to decide on what works for you
best. Some like to TP all at once, others at different levels. On your chart I may
have made T1 where price is sitting now, you can tell we have support there. T2
could be where your T1 is. Again, determing TP is a personal thing, and is the
hardest part of forex imo.
I know this wasn't the best answer, but I don't think there is a concrete one.
Michael
edit* here is what i mean. You can see I have awesome MSpaint skills! This is just
based on this chart you posted. Seeing the bigger picture may change things.
Panjan
#1922
I'm learning this price action and hope someone can help me to confirm
this chart.
Is this the Pin Bar?
If it is, where shall place my order?
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
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Gateway
I have read the thread thru once and parts 3 times. But could not figure out why
that is different then a pin bar. I appreciate the answer.
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
The difference is where the open and close are located. For that example we
would want the open towards the top of the bar and the close above the open
towards the top of the bar. Instead the open and close are nearly identical and in
the middle of the bar. If we think about it in just very basic terms it was a fight of
buyers and sellers and neither one so we ended up with a draw in the middle.
Ok think about a neutral bar simply as the opening and closing both ending up in
the middle or near middle of the bar. The most obvious is when the open and
close are identical in the middle giving us what looks like a + sign. An ideal pin
bar has its open and close within the previous bar and is located at a swing high
or low. The close should always be lower then the open(if looking for a short,
opposite for a long) and both should be located near the bottom part of the bar.
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
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#2314
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jotty
Member
nice trade, but i'll take a break of the double bottom instead of the pin
much safer unless you feel like babysitting the trade
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,661 Posts
I don't babysit any of my trades on the 4hr charts and even the 1 hour charts.
THere are a few who trade with me outside of the charts and they know this. If
you babysit your trades too much emotion comes into play. Remove the emotion
was what has allowed me to make pips!
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
5,661 Posts
well support held and was a good exit for the short, now we have 4 hr pin I am in
on the break.
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
#2336
5,661 Posts
Also here is another trade I made closed my full position now though.
Aud/USD TBL(Three Bar Low)
raczekfx
Member Since Oct 2005
Commercial Member
#2365
2,196 Posts
Pin break overnight and retesting low of the first eye was a nice long signal.
SeekingLight
Charts + PA > *
mbqb11
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imbiber
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james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN
#2474
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Price action analysis is not a system its a method to determine near term price
movement. if you practice and get good at identifying the very best set ups you
certainly can trade with nothing else but combining them with simple support
and resistance and other tools can help refine entries. i challenge all of you to
open a demo account just for trading good price set ups blindly. if you can get
to where you can build an account with nothing on your chart but price with no
other supporting tools what do you think will happen when you do add them. its
about refining and targeting the best possible entry. if you can get good at it
with nothing but price on your chart the rest is easy.
SeekingLight #2481
Member Since Jul 2006
3,257 Posts
This chart pretty much shows the ambiguity of the market and the same state I
am in currently.
We were rising so nicely in a price channel, fell out of it, tried to scramble and
recover, then got the usual "bounce from the former s now turned r channel
bottom" which in this case ALSO coincided with a descending trendline.
Until either the PB lows or the monthly high / descending TL is broken, I have
pretty much no clue about what's going to happen next...any takers?
EJ and GJ are as contradictory, too, GJ hit a TL and is pausing, EJ is at the pin bar
eye level but ALSO on a lower timeframe (4h) made a BEOB and seems to be
heavy as well...
Who ken thar yen?
(My best guess is even tho monthly is still pointing up, weekly has gone sideways
and we made a high above 121.55 we couldn't sustain. We may have just swung
back up to get some decent sellers and if the buyers get fed up enough and the
sellers persist, then we should get a dip back to the sub 120s...no?)
rsq955
Member Since May 2006
Member
146 Posts
I know that this is not much help, but I think that I'm going to stick with my old
fall back position of......staying out. I'm going to wait and see....
CFII
Member
#2585
Does it matter if a bullish pin bar has a lower close than its open price or vice
versa?
islandtrader
Member Since Apr 2006
Member
275 Posts
In my short experience it doesn't matter, but I like it when the open and close of
the PIN are close together and in the upper/lower third of the bar.
Both PINs on this chart have a lower close, and worked well.
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
#2602
59fender
man, I don't know. nevertrade that long of a time frame, probably have a heart
attack
59fender
can I at least wait for a pull back I'm having chest pains allready!
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
#2636
5,668 Posts
edit** Here is the same chart with a few price bars labeled. One is the bar chart
and the other is the candlestick chart. This is just to give you an idea. There are
much more price bars talekd about in this thread. Thought I would just throw this
up.;
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
#2666
Here is a trade I closed today at the TL cross and 61.8 confluence. I held the
position since the first pin bar. So look what started this run, and what is probably
going to end this run. Pin bar at the bottom of the channel and a new pin bar at
the top of the channel. Just have to be patient.
I dont have profit targets nor do I move my stops to b/e. For this trade I I moved
my stops twice, once to under the DBLHC then again under the inside bar. Finally
I closed at the confluence near the top. Ya you gotta watch profits go up and
down, but thats the only way to stick out these longer runs(that I have found and
been successful with).
I never scale out of winning positions and Yes I will take a break of the pin short
today.
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
#2683
When I say traffic I am referring to the bars location. Pin bars are best at swing
high and lows. If you look at the pinbar that formed it isnt at a swing low. Right
next to it we have a bunch of bars (visually looks jumbled(traffic)). Although this
pin may work just fine, I would rather wait for a stronger one. Take for instance,
The pin on the daily of the euro from today. IT was at a swing high(not to
mention other confluence). But if you just visually look at the two, they are very
different. Like you said these bars do fail, and they have a higher success rate at
certain places(being swing high and lows with areas of confluence).
Hope this helps, I had a few beers so forgive the pretty colors
shamstec
Member
#2900
hi everyone
if someone cd help i'd appreciate that so much
please give comment about IB's 1 and 2
how to know if IB is bullish or bearish ??
thank everyone
mbqb11
Hi Sham,
IBs are not bearish, or bullish bars. Theya re a sign of consolidation. The premise
behind them is that after a period of consolidation we have a break out. They are
usually played with a straddle(ie. a break of the high or low gets us into the
market). You can however play a break only one way or the other if your bias is
that way.
For example if an IB is sitting on a support line. Your bias would be long(since we
have support underneath).
Also may I suggest to use the daily/weekly/monthly. I see a lot of people playing
IBs are the 4hour, and to be honest it takes a lot more finesse as you have a lot
more falses on the 4hr and under.
shamstec
Member
pound/yen
#2914
hi all
should i consider sell even if 2 lows have 1 pip difference
or
wait to see if left eye on weekly will be broken or not
the pb on weekly looks unreliable
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
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the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member
#2944
776 Posts
the_wizard
can i clarify what you mean?
do you mean to say conservative traders wouldn't have had a long entry triggered
because the bar failed to break through?
i thought the best way to play dbhlc was to take the trade SHORT at the lower
close...in this case most traders would be in with a stop just above the dbhlc which is now a tbhlc..
the_wizard
aha - i see! thank-you, i am fairly new to this - slowly working my way through
the forum but still way back on page 23...only another 175 to go then...ah well.
its only just gone 10pm...
Pip Squeak
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#2986
moneybags
Member Since Jul 2006
Pipping Tom
486 Posts
mbqb11
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mbqb11
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james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN
#3016
2,608 Posts
Let me share something with you wiz. When I read a post like yours I literally
feel physically ill. Many people have been where your at but very few have been
there as many times as I have. I literally get flashbacks and if my wife should
happen to see me soon after reading one like yours she doesn't even have to
ask, she knows. She knows it's not me anymore because I never risk enough to
do that to myself but she knows I just read one. She has seen the look of
despair and disappointment on my face many times and I get that same look
when I read a post like yours. People say that I have a way of relating, that I
seem like a real person to them. I have often pondered those statements. I
guess the reason it's true is because I will probably spend the rest of the
evening wondering what I could do to help you and I guess the reason I will do
that is because I've been there and I know how damn much it hurts. E-mail me
as I have a question for you.
jim
I left work five months ago with the intention of trading for a living. Looking
back now, I had no plan and was severely undercapitalised but I was
stubborn and believed I could do it.
I managed to last just over two months before wiping out.
Going back to the charts, I came up with a strategy - a forex trend following
system involving MA retracement that seemed in my backtesting to have
incredible results. I borrowed a 1,000 off someone in my family to trade it
whilst still needing desperately to pay the bills.
I took each signal blindly. Some looked frankly awful but I found they still
made me money. After a few weeks I had made several hundred pounds but
the signals weren't coming so fast. I could get a week without one so I moved
into commodities. I thought surely a good system should hold up in all
markets. Well, I got badly whipsawed and as I started to lose I started to take
more risk - as the money dwindled away I was getting worried. One trade I
took 25% risk and lost over 350 in 40 minutes. Well, soon enough, I came
back down to below my starting capital. Now I became really afraid. In a
moment of madness, I got in a position based on my system, over-leveraged
myself again and then panicked when it went against me. I then kept moving
my stop away. I couldn't face taking another loser after so many in a row but
also I couldn't take the pain of losing so much money and being forced to
admit that it was the wrong time for me to embark on my trading career and
I needed to go back to work.
Well, I was short the US indexes. My original exit point would have left me
with around 700 in my account. After being finally stopped out today
because I had no margin, I am left with just over 200.
Looking back at the trades I did, I realise that I would take a position based
on a basic signal but would have nothing else to confirm it.
Now I have Jim's words going round and round in my head: "Succesful
traders hide in the bushes with a rifle - they don't stand in the open with a
shotgun".
As it would happen, I was reading an interview from Market Wizards last night
which I would like to quote you:
"Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any
animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch it's
prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It
will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferably
also one that is sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose
its prey, does it attack. That, to me, is the epitome of professional trading" Mark Weinstein
What does this mean to me in light of this forum? It means, a dblhc doesn't
mean get long - it means: check your daily and weekly fibs, check your trend
lines, check your pivot points. Try and time the entry nicely - don't be afraid
to let the trade pass you by because you waited. There will be other
opportunities.
I think that with this realisation and a good break from this, I may be,
hopefully, on the verge of turning a corner.
I'm sorry this post has been so long - it's been cathartic but just incase I've
bored you all here is a chart for everyone.
Simple PA led to good chances in this market - I wish I had seen them as
they occured!
Good luck and thanks for reading.
Tom
the_wizard
#3063
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mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
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hello everyone,
what a fall! (see chart above for the PA reason I took this)
this is my first trade using the techniques i learnt in this forum.
i just closed this out for 50 pips profit.
i am so happy right now and i have jim to thank.
thank you so much. you've made my day. honestly you have.
tom
james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN
#3069
2,608 Posts
nzd/usd daily.
this pair is certainly looking overextended now but i am cautious since i know
some of you pro's got burnt with those two previous back to back pins...
this time i can also see what looks like bearish divergence on the rsi.
i've never traded off divergence before - hell, i've never really even looked for
it until i came here - this is the first time i've seen it properly.
i could be reading it wrong but it looks like the rsi has failed to make a higher
high from the previous peak on 26 feb.
i'll post a chart later if the pin holds.
tom
the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member
776 Posts
well, here we are. a couple of hours from the close and still looking good.
i'm not strong on negative divergence...that is it that i can see on my rsi, right?
i'm in doubt because i am using onanda also - same setting on rsi but it's hasn't
made a lower high like this...instead it's higher and looking healthy...
i was considering shorting but put off by two things:
a) the traders that got blown out the water shorting the second bar back when it
broke the pin lower.
b) the major resistance at 72.00 - i checked back and corrections off this level
are often sharp and very profitable if caught but the price movement around
this area is highly erratic and could be brutal.
(see next chart)
good luck
the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member
776 Posts
update: nzd broke as expected. for those new to this, lower line on chart was
entry (5 pips below pin) and upper line is stop (5 pips plus spread above pin). for
me this was a risk of 60 pips.
on the one hour, this had a beautiful setup for fine tuning entry...it broke the low
of the pin, then came back up to form the right eye, then broke back below the
pin. i was almost tempted to double up
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
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mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
#3122
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mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
#3227
5,673 Posts
low/high of the bar first and then wait for the retrace?
This is really where the most work on your trading is going to be with
discretionary PA. Just some points to consider. If you are scaling out of a trade
make sure it's because it is actually increasing your profitability, not for some
emotional reason, like hating to lose, or hating too see a winner become a loser.
A good thing to do is go over past trades(a large sample), and see where you
intitially took 1/2 off, and just see what your profit would have been had you let
full profits run.
As far as R:R, no one says you have to have a set R;R, again lots of testing
here. There are numerous exit strategies to think use that may cut your losses
and let profits run without having to use a fixed R:R. Such as a trailing
stop(trailing previous X bars etc). Just food for thought. Exits are the key here,
and its going to become a personal thing.
As for retrace, the whole idea is to get in before price breaks the bar. Although
who's to say you can't do both. But when people talk about getting in on a
retrace, they mean before it breaks.
SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *
3,257 Posts
Scaling out SEEMS good and FEELS good, however it usually doesn't DO good. I
know there's tons of stuff written on pyramids and scaling and whatnot, but
about the only thing I could agree with is adding to a position if the situation
presents itself.
Scaling out however, as outlined in the post linked above, just totally decreases
your profit and slows down your total growth potential.
I know this, because I am still prone to doing this as well and realizing I could
have just been more patient with my trade and ended up multiple times better
with the full position trailed out.
The point is - I'd dare say one doesn't take partials off to make more money,
one takes them off to "feel safer". That's a remnant of the scared money /
unsure trader syndrome and not something that works towards making money.
(Ah I see Mike already wrote something along these lines - totally agree there,
Mike!)
IMHO if you look over past trades and where you "took profit" or moved the
stop - perhaps to be taken out and then have price resume from that very spot
- in my case you will find that simply keeping the faith and giving each and
every trade you did a chance will do a LOT better. Don't outthink the market, let
the market itself decide what will or won't go.
That way those runners that do take off will reward you greatly and the losers
stay losers no matter how you turn it. So what if you halve the losses at times,
if it means you also reduce the chance at gaining 20-50% more if it ends up
turning into a winner that little bit of loss reduction DOES NOT COMPUTE.
It may not feel as nice, but it IS the smarter way of going about it I am
convinced.
I'll say this over and over again and if anyone thinks I am repeating myself it's
because I need to realize and hear this myself so that I, too, may "get" this,
because it IS the one thing I keep seeing over and over in my own trading,
too
Retraces - I've seen some small timeframe pin formations first move 1-15 pips
above the pin, turn around, go to .618ish and THEN and only then move out.
Confirmation of a small PB at this spot or similiar helps.
Please note that this is most likely due to me living on the small timeframes
however and may not apply to any other formation than the PB or higher TFs.
Obviously one would like to join price as its heading in the direction one wants
to go and not against one
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *
3,257 Posts
Why It Pays To Hold Trades
Okay, since I want to clear this up for anyone asking as well as for myself in my
own trading - here's a mini-series on WHY IT PAYS TO HOLD TRADES!!!!
So next time when you enter a trade and go panicky after 50 pips, trying no to
have all that profit disappear as it moves 20 pips against you - keep these
pictures in mind.
PLEASE THE MOST IMPORTANT DETAIL - THESE TRADES ARE ALL IN DIRECTION
OF THE MAIN TREND OF THE PAIR SHOWN.
Let's kick it off on a small timeframe - 4h, NZDUSD.
Also realize it doesn't matter where this happens - we were/are at record highs,
everyone was looking for tops, even James (and I, too) got fooled into trying to
see a short where there wasn't one.
After that I realized - wait. Trend is UP. I should be looking to go LONG.
And then this happened:
SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *
3,257 Posts
Why It Pays To Hold Trades Episode 2
A small cable example - please note what this ONE trade could have done to your
account with 2% risk at the size of that 4h PB.
Stop size around 30 pips, moved 200, imagine closing at +180 -> you get 6 times
your risk. Assuming risk is 2% -> that is 12% account increase ON ONE TRADE IF
YOU JUST HOLD IT LONG ENOUGH.
Also a reminder to not overtrade but WAIT for the good setups.
the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member
#3276
776 Posts
eur/chf
NOTE an I4B is an Inside Bar with a smaller range (the difference in pips between
the bars low and the bars high) than any of the previous 3
SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *
#3282
3,257 Posts
4h PB setup. Allowed one to pre-empt the daily inside bar breakout if one had
kept it (HOLD YOUR TRADES).
30 pip stop if you were patient and daring enough for a retrace, moved out >110
pips so far.
Together with the other 4h PB trade WITH THE TREND that'd be > 300 pips from
2 trades, each at <= 40 pips stop.
Notice how s/r flips here again.
The reason the bearish PB doesn't scare you is A) because it's just from a TL
bounce that's already been touched B) that bearish PB did not activate/move out
and C) trend is up, not down. Also price held .618 of the 1.9725 - 1.9809 miniupswing with that. Think of it as the retracement bus I keep mentioning back to
the pin bar high before takeoff.
I think if someone hasn't gotten the point by now then nothing's gonna change
that
Liquid11
Forex Prospect
#3356
Buy or Sell
SeekingLight
Charts + PA > *
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
#3361
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moneybags
Pipping Tom
#3364
486 Posts
And for your second question, yes it has to be inside the previous bar as well as
having the smallest range of the previous 3 bars. If it's not inside the previous
bar then it's not an I4B.
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
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5,673 Posts
mbqb11
#3430
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mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd
#3611
5,688 Posts
Hey
A DBHLC is when we have Equal Highs but the current bar finishes with a Lower
close then the previous bars Low. So a DBHLC is ALSO a TBH. BUT a TBH is not
neccesarily a DBHLC. Again the important part of the DBHLC is that the current
bar closes lower then the previous bars low.
So if you have matching highs, that is a TBH. And if you have matching lows that
is a TBL
(TBH is Two Bar High)
Mr Trend
Mmmm pips.
#3630
1,362 Posts
In my experience, I've found you're better off playing BEOB's when they are at or
lower than the low... So you're statement is actually valid. There's no reason why
you couldn't trade it that way. You'd just be considered a more conservative PA
trader, that's all.
the_wizard
Member Since Jan 2007
Member
#3634
776 Posts
james16
Member Since Feb 2005
THANK YOU MERLIN
#3653
2,608 Posts
i tend to agree on the smaller time frames. a lot of people may stare in shock at
what im about to say but here goes. all of you know how big i am on demo first
but there is actually another step to your intraday demo process that i have
never mentioned on the public side. perhaps its time.
when your going thru your demo process on intraday, looking at higher time
frames is ok to help you early on but....before you ever trade intraday with real
money you SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRADE AN INTRADAY CHART PROFITABLY BY
ITSELF WITH ABSOLUTLY NO IDEA WHAT ANY HIGHER TIME FRAME IS DOING.
i trade the 15 minute chart on three pairs. mostly just two. eur/usd and usd/jpy.
they are the only two i have demoed down that far. yes i demo just like i tell
everyone else to do. i trade the mini dow on 5 minute. when i am trading these
time frames the last thing i will do is look at anything higher. a lot of people do
and it works for them but all it does is freeze me. if you freeze for even a
second or let any doubt enter your mind on these time frames your toast. when
your looking for 10 to 20 pips with a stop of 10 to 15 pips you better be right
and you better be confident.
so far this month i am 9-0 on the 15 minute. i sit for hours waiting for the
perfect set up. i keep a trade log and my watching time versus trading time is
around 48 hours to a little over 5 hours actually in trades. i dont daytrade to
trade, i daytrade to win.
trying to do this with a small account is very difficult and thats why i try to get
people to start out larger and build thier account before going intraday. when 10
pips makes you a grand or more its not hard to wait for the best setups and
take your profit. your time will seem worth it. sitting for 48 hours to make 50
bucks is tough, real tough. i spent almost a year working my way down to those
two pairs on 15 minute and i have been doing this almost 25 years.
are you guys treating it like a business? for your sake i sure hope so. if it takes
you several years to reach a point where your making damn good money and
doing what you want when you want is it worth it? money to spend and
complete freedom is the payoff but its reached by very very few people because
very very few people take it seriously. jump from system to system and blow
out a 2000 account time after time. been there and done that and i aint going
back. hard work, common sense, a business plan and practice practice practice.
jim
mbqb11
Member Since Aug 2006
Resident Elmer Fudd
#3914
5,694 Posts
Just as an added note, for something I observe personally. There are 3 major
types of pins IMO.
You have:
1. Pins that are countertrend, after large moves up or down, where one feels like
they are going against the longer term trend- such as the aud/usd (if it closes
today as is)
2. Then you have those pins that go with the trend(short or longer term) In this
case a short term down trend, but that doesn't occur on a retrace, kinda just
sticks out there(looks sideways). These pins I never play anymore (not that you
can't).
3. Then you have my personal fav, when you get a nice retrace on the current/or
longer term trend and a pin forms where it creates space away from the previous
trend. Meaning it retraced, but not with a sharp move.
SeekingLight
Member Since Jul 2006
Charts + PA > *
#3926
3,257 Posts
I'll be interested whether this really ends up hurt as bad as the wedge suggested
3-400 pips ago
james16
#4269
2,608 Posts
many different approaches are discussed by long timers in this thread. the most
conservative manner is on a break of a particular bar. the single most important
thing is to combine simple support and resistance into your thought process. if
you have a price action set up telling you long and its right snug up against
strong resistance you need to think about a couple of things.
do i take a break of the bar into the resistance or do i enter after the resistance
has been broken. if you take the trade after a breakout of res you now have a
well thought smart place to put your initial stop that being under the res. simple
analysis that any trader should be able to decipher and do before ever risking
real money. no crazy indicators just simple price analysis combined with s/r. it
works very well AFTER A DEMO EDUCATION WHERE YOU PROVE TO YOURSELF
YOU CAN DO IT.
jim
Quote:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331&page=305
Some metatrader brokers offer commodities/futures as well the mini dow and s&p in addition to forex.
Oriontrader and North finance are some of them.
http://www.orionbrokers.com/tradingproducts.php
http://www.northfinance.com/eng/open-demo-account/
another long day of phone calls and stress is on thecards for today.
Oooh btw... your international licence is here, will post that to you asap too :)
got to go tidy up as much as I can in readiness for Peter's visit this afternoon... the floor is covered with dust, muck
and grass, never looked this bad before, even when Aimee was living here hehe
loads of love to you all
Well done Keith. Looks like you really getting better at it every week - not sure if James16 could teach you more :-). I
wish I could jump on this trade with you. I woke up too late to pull out anything from my 5min charts. There was a
nice setup on 5min GBPUSD which would easily yield 1:2 .Now's gonne - trading 5mins GBPUSD and EURUSD
makes only sense during beginning of European/London session - New York is so unreliable this days.Anyway down
to the next trade when comes.Thank you for your generous gift Keith - much appreciate it. Hope to download and
watch as many videos as possible.Meantime I'm going to watch all guest area videos to tune into the methods.I
suppose nothing is going to happen between now and FOMC announcement in the evening so sense in starring at
the charts.
Thank you once again Keith.
Cheers
Jarek