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Viacom Inc
S&P Capital IQ
SELL
Recommendation
S&P Capital IQ Equity Analyst T. Amobi, CPA, CFA
Price
12-Mo. Target Price
$41.32 (as of May 06, 2016 4:00 PM ET) $40.00
Report Currency
USD
Investment Style
Large-Cap Blend
Summary This pure-play entertainment content provider operates several well known cable
networks such as MTV, Nickelodeon, BET and VH1, as well as the Paramount film studio -with such franchises as Star Trek, Transformers, Mission Impossible and Indiana Jones.
Key Stock Statistics (Source S&P Capital IQ, Vickers, company reports)
52-Wk Range
$69.17 30.11
Trailing 12-Month EPS
$5.57
Trailing 12-Month P/E
7.4
$10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago
$9,165
5.00
5.28
8.3
395.9
Market Capitalization(B)
Yield (%)
Dividend Rate/Share
Institutional Ownership (%)
Price Performance
Share Price
Beta
S&P 3-Yr. Proj. EPS CAGR(%)
S&P Quality Ranking
1.11
4
B+
Relative Strength
Down
Volume
No Change
Above Avg.
STARS
Below Avg.
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
80
60
40
30
Volume(Mil.)
$14.316
3.87
$1.60
90
64
30
20
10
0
Revenue/Earnings Data
1
J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.
Revenue (Million $)
1Q
2Q
2016
3,154
3,001
2015
3,344
3,078
2014
3,197
3,174
2013
3,314
3,135
2012
3,952
3,331
2011
3,828
3,267
3Q
-3,058
3,421
3,693
3,241
3,766
4Q
-3,788
3,991
3,652
3,363
4,053
Year
-13,268
13,783
13,794
13,887
14,914
E1.69
1.47
1.40
1.32
0.99
0.97
E1.70
2.21
1.72
1.68
1.24
0.99
E5.00
4.73
5.43
4.86
4.36
3.61
Analysis prepared by Equity Analyst T. Amobi, CPA, CFA on Apr 29, 2016 03:36 PM, when the stock traded at $40.93.
Highlights
After a 3.7% decline in FY 15 (Sep.), consolidated revenues are projected to edge up 0.8% in
FY 16 -- against some currency headwinds -with relatively modest growth in worldwide affiliate fees. This should be significantly offset by
further declines in domestic and international
advertising revenues -- the latter also constrained by negative forex despite contributions
from the Channel 5 U.K. acquisition -- and by
difficult film comparisons for theatrical and
home video releases. With an improved film
slate, and incremental TV license and ancillary
revenues, we see revenues up 2.8% in FY 17.
We see a notable contraction in adjusted EBITDA margins to 28.3% in FY 16 -- versus 31.2% in
FY 15 -- partly on higher programming investments and film underperformance. However,
with the benefit of further restructuring-related
cost savings, as well as higher-margin streaming deals and improved international profitability, adjusted EBITDA margins should slightly recover to 28.8% in FY 17.
With share buybacks under a $20 billion plan,
we forecast EPS of $5.00 in FY 16 and $5.28 in FY
17 -- versus FY 15 normalized EPS of $5.84.
Investment Rationale/Risk
Fiscal year ended Sep. 30. Next earnings report expected: Early
August. EPS Estimates based on S&P Capital IQ Operating
Earnings; historical GAAP earnings are as reported in Company
reports.
Dividend Data
Amount
($)
0.400
0.400
0.400
Date
Decl.
Ex-Div.
Date
Stk. of
Record
Payment
Date
Jul 1 '15
Oct 1 '15
Apr 1 '16
Please read the Required Disclosures and Analyst Certification on the last page of this report.
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek
independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making an investment or implementing the investment strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized.
Investors should note that income from such investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any
impact this investment may have on their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make an investment decision.
Unless otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document.
Viacom Inc
Business Summary April 29, 2016
CORPORATE OVERVIEW. Viacom is one of the world's leading media and entertainment companies. A major content provider, the company has entertainment brands that have spawned several television and film
franchises. Its global footprint recently comprised about 216 channels across 169 countries in 39 languages.
The media networks segment (78% of FY 15 (Sep.) revenues) is mainly comprised of MTV Networks
(including MTV, Nickelodeon, VH1, Comedy Central, Country Music Television, Spike TV, TV Land, Logo,
Neopets, Xfire and VIVA) and BET Networks. In October 2009, as part of a joint venture with Lionsgate and
MGM studios, its Paramount Pictures unit launched EPIX -- a 50%-owned premium cable channel. The
company recently had more than 1,300 web sites.
The entertainment segment (22%) mainly comprises Paramount Pictures film studio (and home entertainment). About 37% of FY 15 revenues were derived from ad sales, 37% from affiliate fees,13% from feature
films (theatrical and home video), 7% from TV licensing, and 6% from other ancillary sources (including
merchandise licensing).
CORPORATE STRATEGY. In recent years, the company has increasingly sought to exploit its content
across a host of emerging digital platforms such as Snapchat, YouTube, Netflix, Amazon's video service
and Hulu. In 2010, EPIX signed a five-year streaming deal with Netflix believed to be worth about $200 million per year. Among the company's selective acquisitions in recent years are Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Social Express and, most recently during the 2014 second quarter, the U.K. broadcaster Channel 5
(for about $750 million).
Over the past few years, Paramount Pictures has moved to control its international distribution and significantly expand its home video capabilities, while streamlining its slate to about 15 franchise-focused films
per year. In 2012, the company unveiled plans to launch a TV production studio. This comes after a recent
launch of an in-house CGI animation studio that is on track to debut its first release in 2014. In 2008, Paramount shut down its specialty arm, Paramount Vantage, merging its operations into the parent studio.
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE. With voting control of about 80% through the family-controlled National
Amusements Inc. (NAI), Sumner Redstone became Chairman Emeritus in February 2016, after reliquishing
the role of Executive Chairman to CEO Phillipe Dauman. His daughter, Shari Redstone, is non-executive
vice chair of both companies. The company recently determined that eight of its 12 directors were independent. Still, by virtue of the board's composition, we believe that the controlling shareholder determines
the final outcome of the board's deliberations on key issues.
FINANCIAL TRENDS. In recent years, management had set long-term financial targets of double-digit revenue and earnings growth -- potentially helped by improved tax efficiencies and working capital management. As of December 31, 2015, the company had total debt of about $12.6 billion, and cash equivalents of
$327 million -- consistent with a targeted long-term leverage ratio (debt/EBITDA) of 2.0X to 2.5X.
In August 2015, the company doubled its share repurchase program to about $20 billion, and recently had
about $5.6 billion remaining under its $20 billion share buyback program that was suspended in early April
2015 as the company unveiled some major restructuring measures. However, the company expects to resume its share buyback program in FY 16.
In May 2015, the company increased its quarterly dividend by 21% to $0.40 a share ($1.60 a year), after prior increases of 10% in May 2014, 9% in May 2013, 10% in May 2012, and 67% in May 2011 (to $1.00).
Corporate Information
Investor Contact
J. Bombassei (212-258-6377)
Office
1515 Broadway, New York, NY 10036.
Telephone
212-258-6000.
Website
http://www.viacom.com
Officers
Chrmn, CEO & Pres
P.P. Dauman
Vice Chrmn
S.E. Redstone
Board Members
G. S. Abrams
T. E. Dooley
D. Norville
S. E. Redstone
W. Schwartz
Domicile
Delaware
Founded
2005
Employees
9,200
Stockholders
21,905
P. P. Dauman
B. J. McGarvie
C. E. Phillips, Jr.
F. V. Salerno
C. F. Sorrell
Viacom Inc
Quantitative Evaluations
S&P Capital IQ
Fair Value
Rank
Fair Value
Calculation
5
HIGHEST
$61.00 Analysis of the stock's current worth, based on S&P Capital IQ's
97
LOWEST = 1
LOW
BULLISH
AVERAGE
2015
1.26
4.06
6.68
8.69
406.0
2014
2.40
7.63
9.43
13.85
440.2
2013
3.13
10.34
12.28
17.95
494.8
2012
2.04
6.85
8.17
12.09
537.5
UNFAVORABLE
NEUTRAL
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
9 Years
-3.74
-19.65
-1.37
-5.85
4.42
8.08
1.06
6.01
14.49
76.15
52.97
16.43
73.61
48.24
16.16
63.33
42.27
13.97
56.33
30.34
HIGH
Since April, 2016, the technical indicators for VIAB have been
BULLISH.
NA
Price/Sales
Price/EBITDA
Price/Pretax Income
P/E Ratio
Avg. Diluted Shares Outstg (M)
HIGHEST = 100
VIAB scored higher than 97% of all companies for which an S&P
Capital IQ Report is available.
Volatility
Insider Activity
Investability
Quotient
Percentile
Technical
Evaluation
LOWEST
FAVORABLE
For further clarification on the terms used in this report, please visit www.spcapitaliq.com/stockreportguide
Company Financials Fiscal Year Ended Sep. 30
Per Share Data ($)
Tangible Book Value
Cash Flow
Earnings
S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings
Dividends
Payout Ratio
Prices:High
Prices:Low
P/E Ratio:High
P/E Ratio:Low
2015
NM
5.28
4.73
NA
1.46
31%
76.29
36.32
16
8
2014
NM
5.93
5.43
NA
1.26
23%
89.76
65.86
17
12
2013
NM
5.34
4.86
NA
1.15
24%
87.84
53.86
18
11
2012
NM
4.80
4.36
NA
1.05
24%
56.91
44.85
13
10
2011
NM
4.13
3.61
NA
1.05
29%
52.67
35.13
15
10
2010
NM
2.30
1.92
NA
0.30
16%
40.25
27.89
21
15
2009
NM
3.16
2.62
NA
Nil
Nil
31.56
13.25
12
5
2008
NM
2.55
1.97
NA
Nil
Nil
44.19
11.60
22
6
2007
NM
2.99
2.41
NA
Nil
Nil
45.40
33.74
19
14
2006
NM
2.70
2.19
NA
Nil
Nil
43.90
32.42
20
15
13,268
4,118
222
657
2,503
20.0%
1,922
NA
13,783
4,342
217
615
3,514
29.9%
2,392
NA
13,794
4,179
237
468
3,519
30.4%
2,407
NA
13,887
4,137
236
425
3,470
31.3%
2,345
NA
14,914
4,125
271
419
3,245
32.7%
2,183
NA
9,337
2,429
222
326
1,812
34.6%
1,185
NA
13,619
3,295
331
440
2,276
31.1%
1,591
NA
14,625
3,341
364
514
1,855
32.6%
1,233
NA
13,423
3,404
393
487
2,579
36.0%
1,630
NA
11,467
3,137
366
472
2,322
31.8%
1,570
NA
1,107
5,252
23,117
3,935
12,649
3,719
16,612
123
2,609
1.3
76.1
17.4
10.2
53.7
2,492
6,726
23,829
3,790
11,742
5,193
17,132
160
2,644
1.8
68.5
17.5
10.5
38.1
848
4,853
22,250
3,830
7,989
7,448
15,607
154
2,581
1.3
51.2
16.9
NA
NA
1,021
5,261
22,801
3,942
7,187
8,644
16,113
155
2,454
1.3
44.6
14.6
9.7
24.4
837
4,549
22,096
3,498
6,721
9,283
16,011
105
1,407
1.3
42.0
12.7
NM
NM
298
4,430
21,900
3,751
6,650
8,704
15,450
141
1,922
1.2
43.0
11.7
7.2
20.2
792
4,502
22,487
4,842
7,897
7,033
14,980
288
1,597
0.9
52.7
8.4
5.4
17.4
920
4,833
22,904
5,273
8,060
7,111
15,312
237
2,023
0.9
52.6
12.2
7.3
22.8
706
4,211
21,797
4,617
7,584
7,166
14,932
210
1,936
0.9
50.8
13.7
7.7
21.0
Data as originally reported in Company reports.; bef. results of disc opers/spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs.; EPS diluted. E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under
Review.
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
Viacom Inc
Sub-Industry Outlook
Industry Performance
S&P 1500
Sector
Sub-Industry
210%
160%
% Change
110%
60%
10%
-90%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sub-Industry : Movies & Entertainment Peer Group*: Entertainment Content Providers - Larger
Stock
Symbol
Stk.Mkt.
Cap.
(Mil. $)
Recent
Stock
Price($)
Viacom Inc'B'
VIAB
14,316
41.32
69.17/30.11
1.11
3.9
61.00
B+
97
14.5
76.2
Disney (Walt) Co
Time Warner
Twenty-First Century Fox 'A'
Twenty-First Century Fox 'B'
DIS
TWX
FOXA
FOX
179,076
61,079
44,590
23,572
105.54
74.89
29.51
29.52
122.08/86.25
91.34/55.53
34.83/22.66
34.56/22.65
1.17
1.17
1.18
1.18
1.3
2.1
1.0
1.0
20
15
8
8
109.90
80.90
30.20
NA
A+
B+
B+
B+
100
83
95
95
16.0
13.5
9.4
3.5
20.1
49.7
36.8
36.8
Peer Group
52
Week
High/Low($)
Beta
Yield
(%)
P/E
Ratio
NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful NR-Not Rated. *For Peer Groups with more than 15 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
Fair
Value
Calc.($)
S&P Return on
Quality IQ
Revenue
Ranking %ile
(%)
LTD to
Cap
(%)
Viacom Inc
S&P Capital IQ Analyst Research Notes and other Company News
April 28, 2016
10:45 am ET ... S&P CAPITAL IQ REDUCES OPINION ON 'B' SHARES OF VIACOM
TO SELL, FROM HOLD (VIAB 42.8**): We cut FY 16 (Sep.) and FY 17 EPS estimates
by $0.78 and $0.90 to $5.00 an $5.28. We keep our 12-month target price of $40
(3.8% yield) on FY 16 (Sep.) EV/EBITDA of 7.1X, a notable steep discount vs. peers.
Mar-Q EPS of $0.76 vs. $1.16, was $0.04 above Capital IQ consensus. Revenues
fell 3%, on notable declines in U.S. ads and affiliate revenues (down 5% and 2%),
the former on lingering ratings challenges, and the latter constrained by
subscriber declines. With higher programming costs and lackluster film
performance, adjusted EBIT fell 29%, as margins shed 720 basis points. /T. Amobi,
CPA, CFA
February 9, 2016
10:04 am ET ... S&P CAPITAL IQ KEEPS HOLD OPINION ON 'B' SHARES OF
VIACOM, INC. (VIAB 37.98***): Expecting some lingering challenges after recent
governance and leadership changes, we cut our 12-month target price by $14 to
$40 (4.2% yield) on EV/EBITDA of 6.7X our FY 16 (Sep.) estimate, sharply below
peers and vs. a 10-year average of 9.0X. We trim our FY 16 and FY 17 EPS estimate
by $0.16 and $0.22 to $5.78 and $6.18. Dec-Q EPS of $1.18 (before $0.05 costs), vs.
$1.29, was $0.01 above the Capital IQ consensus. Amid forex headwinds,
revenues and adjusted EBIT fell 6% and 13% on tough film comps and lower
worldwide ads and affiliate revenues. Margins shed 210 basis points. /T. Amobi,
CPA, CFA
February 5, 2016
Viacom Inc. named Philippe Dauman as Executive Chairman of the Board of
Directors.
February 4, 2016
04:20 pm ET ... S&P CAPITAL IQ KEEPS HOLD OPINION ON 'B' SHARES OF
VIACOM, INC. (VIAB 45.23***): We surmise a somewhat mixed signal for
succession planning as Philippe Dauman inherits the Chairman's role from the
company founder, Sumner Redstone, who becomes Chairman Emeritus. Such a
move might raise some corporate governance concerns for what remains a
closely held company, with nearly 80% voting power held by the Redstone
family-controlled National Amusements Inc. (NAI). With the nonagenarian Mr.
Redstone also recently embroiled in certain personal matters, it remains to be
seen how the current changes might impact the company's longer-term strategic
vision, if at all. /T. Amobi, CPA, CFA
November 12, 2015
12:02 pm ET ... S&P CAPITAL IQ KEEPS HOLD OPINION ON 'B' SHARES OF
VIACOM (VIAB 50.27***): With some ratings improvement, we raise our 12-month
target price by $5 to $54 (3.5% yield) on EV/EBITDA of 7.3X our FY 16 (Sep.), a
notable sharp discount to peers. We lower FY 16 EPS estimate by $0.60 to $5.94
and initiate FY 17's at $6.41. Sep-Q EPS of $1.54 (before $0.67 tax gain, 6% less
shares), matched Capital IQ consensus. Revenues fell 5% (down 2% ex-forex),
with tough film comps (Transformers 4) and US ads down 7% vs. worldwide
affiliate fees up 15%. With added costs, adjusted EBIT fell 13% as margins
narrowed 200 basis points. /T. Amobi, CPA, CFA, /E. Levy-CFA
August 6, 2015
10:59 am ET ... S&P CAPITAL IQ REDUCES TO HOLD FROM BUY OPINION ON
VIACOM SHARES (VIAB 43.12***): As VIAB's ratings-induced (and seemingly
worsening) ad pressures show no signs of easing, we drop our 12-month target
price by $29 to $49 (3.6% yield), on EV/EBITDA of 7.0x our FY 16 estimate, a steep
discount to peers, and vs. 9-year historic average of 8.9x. We trim FY 15 and FY 16
EPS estimates by $0.05 and $0.06 to $5.84 and $6.54. Jun-Q EPS of $1.47 (8% less
shares) vs. $1.42, matched Capital IQ consensus. Revenues fell 11%, with ads
down 2% (US ads fell 9%) and tough film comps vs. affiliate fees up 2%. But
adjusted EBIT dipped only 1%, as margins widened 370 basis points. /T. Amobi,
CPA, CFA
April 30, 2015
12:30 pm ET ... S&P CAPITAL IQ KEEPS BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF VIACOM
INC. (VIAB 71.48****): We raise 12-month target price by $3 to $78 (1.8% yield), on
FY 16 (Sep.) EV/EBITDA of 9.4x, 10% below peers but near its 5-year average. We
keep FY 15 EPS at $5.89 and trim FY 16's by $0.06 to $6.60. Viacom reaffirmed its
restructuring goals as it posts Mar-Q EPS of $1.16 (before $1.29 costs) vs. $1.08,
$0.03 shy of our estimate. Mar-Q revenues fell 3% (-1% ex-forex) on a sharp drop
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission.
Viacom Inc
Analysts' Recommendations
Monthly Average Trend
Buy/Hold
Hold
Weak Hold
BH
WH
Sell
S
No Opinion
BUY/HOLD
VIAB Trend
1000
1000
1000
2014
2015
2016
Buy
Buy/Hold
Hold
Weak Hold
Sell
No Opinion
Total
% of Total
30
11
46
8
5
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
4
16
2
2
0
36
2015
2017
10
8
6
4
2015
Fiscal Years
2017
2016
2017 vs. 2016
Q3'17
Q3'16
Q3'17 vs. Q3'16
2016
Avg Est.
5.29
4.92
8%
High Est.
5.73
5.09
13%
Low Est.
4.63
4.54
2%
# of Est.
36
33
9%
Est. P/E
7.8
8.4
-7%
1.47
1.40
5%
1.56
1.46
7%
1.25
1.20
4%
13
33
-61%
28.1
29.5
-5%
A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision. S&P Capital IQ organizes the earnings estimates of over 2,300
Wall Street analysts, and provides their consensus of earnings over the next two years, as well as how those earnings estimates have
changed over time. Note that the information provided in relation to consensus estimates is not intended to predict actual results and should
not be taken as a reliable indicator of future performance.
Viacom Inc
Glossary
S&P Capital IQ STARS
Since January 1, 1987, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a universe of U.S.
common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs (American
Depositary Shares) based on a given equity's potential for future performance.
Similarly, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked Asian and European equities
since June 30, 2002. Under proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System),
S&P Capital IQ equity analysts rank equities according to their individual forecast of an
equity's future total return potential versus the expected total return of a relevant
benchmark (e.g., a regional index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350 Index or
S&P 500 Index)), based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet
the needs of investors looking to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data
used to assist in determining the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst's
own models as well as internal proprietary models resulting from dynamic data inputs.
Relevant benchmarks:
In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500 Index, in Europe and in
Asia, the relevant benchmarks are the S&P Europe 350 Index and the S&P Asia 50
Index, respectively.
Viacom Inc
Disclosures
S&P Capital IQ ranks stocks in accordance with the following ranking methodologies:
The methodologies used in STARS Stock Reports and Quantitative Stock Reports
(collectively, the "S&P Capital IQ's Research Reports" or "Research Reports") reflect
different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods and may have differing
recommendations.S&P Capital IQ believes that the methodologies and data used to
generate the different types of Research Reports are reasonable and appropriate.
Generally, S&P Capital IQ does not generate reports with different ranking
methodologies for the same issuer. However, in the event that different methodologies
or data are used on the analysis of an issuer, the methodologies may lead to different
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assessments of an issuer. S&P Capital IQ reserves the right to alter, replace or vary
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For a list of companies mentioned in a Research Report with whom S&P Capital IQ
and/or one of its affiliates has had business relationships within the past year, please
go to: www.spcapitaliq.com/relationships
North America
30.1%
50.6%
19.3%
100%
Europe
40.6%
32.8%
26.6%
100%
Asia
37.8%
48.7%
13.5%
100%
Global
33.6%
46.2%
20.2%
100%
S&P Capital IQ and/or one of its affiliates has performed services for and received
compensation from this company during the past twelve months.
General Disclosure
Where S&P Capital IQ's Research Reports are made available in a language
other than English and in the case of inconsistencies between the English and
translated versions of a Research Report, the English version will control and
supersede any ambiguities associated with any part or section of a Research
Report that has been issued in a foreign language. Neither S&P Capital IQ nor its
affiliates guarantee the accuracy of the translation.
Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this
material and are subject to change without notice. This document may contain forward
looking statements or forecasts, such statement or forecasts are not a reliable
indicator of future performance.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Analyst Certification
STARS Stock Reports are prepared by the equity research analysts of Standard
& Poor's Investment Advisory Services LLC ("SPIAS"), McGraw-Hill Financial
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Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2016 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC.
STANDARD & POOR'S, S&P, S&P 500, S&P CAPITAL IQ, S&P EUROPE 350 and STARS are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC.