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Article history:
Received 3 August 2015
Received in revised form 2 November 2015
Accepted 21 November 2015
Available online 13 January 2016
Keywords:
Risk tolerance
Construction
Safety risk
Safety management
Personal subjective perception
System thinking
a b s t r a c t
While workers safety risk tolerances have been regarded as a main reason for their unsafe behaviors,
little is known about why different people have different risk tolerances even when confronting the same
situation. The aim of this research is to identify the critical factors and paths that inuence workers
safety risk tolerance and to explore how they contribute to accident causal model from a system thinking
perceptive. A number of methods were carried out to analyze the data collected through interviews and
questionnaire surveys. In the rst and second steps of the research, factor identication, factor ranking
and factor analysis were carried out, and the results show that workers safety risk tolerance can be
inuenced by four groups of factors, namely: (1) personal subjective perception; (2) work knowledge
and experiences; (3) work characteristics; and (4) safety management. In the third step of the research,
hypothetical inuencing path model was developed and tested by using structural equation modeling
(SEM). It is found that the effects of external factors (safety management and work characteristics) on risk
tolerance are larger than that of internal factors (personal subjective perception and work knowledge
& experiences). Specically, safety management contributes the most to workers safety risk tolerance
through its direct effect and indirect effect; while personal subjective perception comes the second and
can act as an intermedia for work characteristics. This research provides an in-depth insight of workers
unsafe behaviors by depicting the contributing factors as shown in the accident causal model developed
in this research.
2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Practically, the development of construction industry has been
plagued by the accidents or injuries that are frequently occurred.
It is estimated that there are around 60,000 construction fatalities occurred worldwide each year, which equates to one accident
happens every nine minutes (ILO, 2006). Further, the construction
industry employs nearly 10% of the workforce but it accounts for
2040% of the occupational fatal accidents (Raheem and Hinze,
2014). These highly disproportionate numbers indicate a deteriorating situation of construction industry. A thorough understanding
of the accident causation mechanism is essential for accident prevention. Heinrich et al. (1950) advocated that accidents are caused
by an unsafe act (e.g., an individuals behavior or activity that
Corresponding author at: Department of Civil and Construction Engineering
and Centre for Sustainable Infrastructures, Swinburne University of Technology,
Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia.
E-mail address: pwzou@swin.edu.au (P.X.W. Zou).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2015.11.027
0001-4575/ 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
deviates from normal accepted safety procedure) or an unsafe condition (e.g., deciency in machines and materials). Research has
found that, 88% of accidents are caused by the former, and 10%
by the later (Heinrich et al., 1950). Garrett and Teizer (2009) also
pointed out that human error is a main reason for up to 80% of all
incidents and accidents in complex high-risk industry such as mining, construction and nuclear power. Further, Fang (2012) asserted
that workers unsafe behaviors have been recognized as the direct
and common reason for construction accidents. Since the characteristics of construction work determine workers usually work on
separate sites, this decentralization makes it more difcult to identify and manage unsafe behaviors (Olson and Austin, 2001; Gould
and Joyce, 2003).
Theoretically, workers internal factors such as attitude, perception and efcacy play a vital role in safety performance. As shown in
Fig. 1, unsafe behavior and unsafe condition have been recognized
as the main reasons for construction accidents, and among these
two, unsafe conditions can resulted from misusing of equipment
(i.e., workers are not familiar with crane operating) or decient
268
management (i.e., sloppy material test). It has been proven that the
reasons of unsafe behaviors can be explained from two aspects:
(1) internal factors: which means personal characteristics, such as
risk perception, risk attitude, risk tolerance, self-efcacy and stress
(Hallowell, 2010; Wang and Yuan, 2011; Wang, 2014; Dixit et al.,
2014; Leung et al., 2012); and (2) external factors, which refers to
the environment in which individuals are living, such as culture,
regulations and weather (de Camprieu et al., 2007; Liu et al., 2014;
Acar and Gc, 2011). After an accident happens, project safety performance is negatively inuenced. Workers who experienced or
witnessed injures tend to be more risk aversion and less optimistic
(Shin et al., 2014). As a result, unsafe behaviors can be reduced.
Then, less accidents and better safety performance would occur.
Accordingly, the changes of individuals internal factors will determine the performance of construction safety. In other words, they
act as the input of accident causal model. And thus, exploration of
factors contributing different internal factors is vital for successful
accident prevention from a system thinking perceptive (Fung et al.,
2012). Having said so, it is worth noting that from a system perspective, there is normally a feedback loop which represents that
the input factors (i.e., the causes) are also affected by the outputs
(i.e., safety performance). This will be discussed in details at later
sections.
Previous studies have shown that non-objective risk assessment would happen if taking no consideration of individuals
risk tolerance (Hopkinson, 2012; Mu et al., 2014). Lichtenstein
et al. (1978) pointed out that people tend to overestimate their
ability to control or prevent accidents, thus leads to an underestimation of the risks. Balaz and Williams (2011) emphasized
the effect of risk tolerance on immigrants risk perceptions, and
showed that the more uncertainties immigrants can accept, the
more likely they underestimate the seriousness of potential risks.
Basically, individuals with higher (lower) risk tolerance are more
(less) likely to take a risk. Therefore, objective assessment of
risk tolerance plays a critical role in an effective and successful
safe behavior. Decisions made without considering risk tolerance might not be persuasive or reliable. Nevertheless, which
factors inuence workers safety risk tolerance and to what
extent the factors can affect remained as important and unsolved
problems.
System thinking, as a discipline of seeing systems holistically
(Goh et al., 2010) has been used for construction safety improvement. For example, Leveson (2004) developed a new accident
model based on system thinking, and proved that it can provide
better and less subjective understanding of the reasons and preventions of accidents. Goh et al. (2010) built a causal loop diagram
to simulate the relationships between safety culture and major
accidents. Their results illustrated that an amalgamation reaction
from each part can promote poor safety culture even though each
of them are necessary from each partys point of view. Shin et al.
(2014) developed a system dynamics model to analyze the feedback mechanisms and the resultant dynamics regarding workers
safety attitudes and safe behaviors. It is summarized that systematic thinking are effective in representing the complex interactions
between factors and making the accident be more readily understood.
269
subjective measure which refers whether investors are risk aversion, risk neutral or risk seeking. These explanations provide a more
direct way to understand willingness and ability. Specically,
willingness refers whether an individual wants to take a risk, and
the ability means if a person is capable enough to bear losses.
This paper selected the objective part to represent individuals
risk tolerance. First, no matter whether an individual is risk aversion or risk seeking, one of the most critical things in risk decision
making is to measure whether they have enough real things to pay
potential losses, such as money. This means there exist interactions between the two dimensions of risk tolerance, the objective
assessment can inuence its subjective part. Accordingly, if they
are taken as a whole, confusions could be formed about the difference between risk tolerance and risk attitude. Thus, in this paper,
risk tolerance means individuals capability of bear losses.
Risk tolerance plays a critical role in risk management. Based on
Fig. 2, which is adopted from ISO 31000:2009, risk assessment is
the core of the process of risk management as it provides a basis for
decisions about the most appropriate approach to be used to treat
risks by offering decision-makers with an improved understanding
of how potential risks could affect achievement of objectives (ISO,
2009a). In other words, the output of risk assessment is an input
of risk-based decision-making (Karimiazari et al., 2011). However,
what is the output of risk assessment? After risk identication and
risk analysis, risk evaluation is processed to determine whether a
risk is acceptable and/or tolerable. As showed in Fig. 3, risks located
above the intolerable line are regarded as cannot be tolerated no
matter what benets the risk may bring. For these kinds of risks,
risk treatment is essential whatever their costs; for risks belong to
middle band, it means these risks can be tolerated; in the lower
band, the level of risks is regarded as negligible or so small that no
risk treatment measures are needed (ISO, 2009b).
It is noteworthy that the intolerable line plays a critical role in
risks ranking and resources distributing. Kwak and Laplace (2005)
pointed out that managing risk is resource consuming, and not
only prioritizing identied risks and address the most crucial ones
are of great importance, but also to know how much to reduce
them so that the risk is acceptable is crux for improving decisionmaking. However, the intolerable line is difcult to determine
as acceptance of risk may change throughout the duration of a
project (Kwak and Laplace, 2005) and it is unreliable to make it just
according to historical gures and facts pertaining to the project
at hand (Kahneman and Lovallo, 1993). As for construction workers, ajavascript:void(0); large proportion of them never received
professional risk management training, let alone having awareness of how much safety risk they can tolerate. It is expected that
this research can help workers to understand how their risk tolerance are formed by exploring the critical inuencing factors and
paths.
3. Research methodology
3.1. Research design
Fig. 4 shows the research process and methods employed for
data collection and analysis in this study. The whole research comprises three steps.
3.2. Data collection
In step one, a literature review, including Frank (2011), Moreschi
(2004), Rawlinson and Farrell (2009), Abdelhamid and Everett
(2000) and Acar and Gc (2011), was undertaken to develop an
in-depth understanding of the inuencing factors that related to
workers behaviors and the risks construction workers may confront. Then, semi-structured interviews with 10 workers from 2
construction companies were carried out to develop the tentativecritical factor list in which all factors can inuence workers safety
risk tolerance.
In step two, based on the factor list obtained by step one, survey questionnaire was adopted for data collection, which contains
two main sections: the rst section is designed to collect the background information of respondents; the second section consists of
27 factors with potential effects on workers safety risk tolerance.
The Likert scale was used to quantify these effects and was ranged
as 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, which is correspondingly represent respondents
attitude from (1) = this factor has the least effect on risk tolerance,
and (5) = this factor has the strongest effect on risk tolerance (the
effects grow with number increases). Three hundred and eightythree (383) sets of questionnaires were distributed to workers, who
were employed in 11 construction companies in China. Finally, 297
valid responses were received. The software of Statistic Package
for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23.0 was used to process the
empirical data and make statistical analysis. Factor ranking and factor analysis methods were adopted to determine the critical factors
inuencing workers safety risk tolerance.
270
and CFI of 0.9 or above, and an RMSEA of 0.08 or less also indicate
a good t.
4. Identication of critical factors and their grouping
4.1. Possible factors
Based on the results of literature review and interviews, a list of
27 factors was obtained, which formed the main basis for questionnaire design. All factors are listed in Table 1 with detail descriptions.
4.2. Critical factors
This section identies the important factors affecting workers
safety risk tolerance. The mean and standard deviation of each factor are derived from the total sample to determine the level of
importance. Factors with higher mean values and lower standard
deviation indicate they have greater impacts on workers risk tolerance. The factors with mean values that are greater than the average
value of all mean values (3.1178) are classied as critical factors in
affecting workers safety risk tolerance. The ranking results of these
factors are shown in Table 2.
Based on Table 2, there are 14 factors among the initial 27
factors receive a mean value of greater than 3.1178, which are
therefore determined as critical factors inuencing workers safety
risk tolerance in construction project. The top-ve critical factors
are Time constraints for decision-making, Relevant safety regulations, and Behaviors from peers, Safety knowledge and
Relevant project information, each of which has a mean value
above 3.680.
4.3. Grouping of critical factors
This section explores the groupings that might exist among
the 14 critical factors. Factors analysis was applied to address the
problem of analyzing the structure of the interrelationships (correlations) among a large number of variables.
The survey data was analyzed by principal component analysis,
which is a common method in factor analysis. The results show that
the Bartlett test of sphericity is 4733.668 with signicance level of
0.000, and the value of the KaiserMayerOlkin measure of sampling adequacy is 0.809 (higher than 0.50). These demonstrate that
the sample meets the fundamental requirements for factor analysis (Hair, 2010). The principal component analysis generated a
four-factor solution with eigenvalues greater than 1.0. The component matrix after rotation is presented in Table 3. Each factor
271
Table 1
Descriptions of factors that may inuence safety risk tolerance.
No.
Factors
Descriptions
F01
Physical health
F02
Emotion
F03
Judgment ability
F04
Professional knowledge
F05
Working experiences
F06
Weather
F07
Noise
F08
F09
Workload
F10
F11
Safety training
F12
Supervision
F13
Safety regulations
F14
Peers behaviors
F15
F16
Age
Education background
F17
Perception of risks
F18
Trust of self-capability
F19
F20
F21
Boldness
F22
F23
F24
F25
Safety knowledge
F26
Risk preference
F27
It means workers physical condition. This factor inuences the pressure workers can endure, the
working quality, and the corresponding ability to confront risks
It means whether workers are happy or not, sometimes working with anger or sadness may result
in irrational of risk decision making (Segal et al., 2005)
It refers to workers abilities of analyzing and judging problems according to their own knowledge
and experience. This ability plays an important role within the process of risk tolerance assessment
It refers to the degree of professional knowledge will affect workers directly while dealing with
professional project issues, result with different risk tolerance (Wang and Yuan, 2011)
Rich working experiences make workers more familiar with potential risks regarding projects,
thus could likely reduce risk taking behavior
High temperature in summer and stronger wind may inuence workers judgment of their risk
tolerance (Rowlinson et al., 2014)
Loud noise from operation of machines may make workers feel dget, then, unreasonable
assessment of self-risk tolerance may happen
To what degree workers are interested in their construction job can inuence their willingness to
nish it with good quality rather take risk. Thus inuence their degree of risk tolerance
Too much work may make workers feel boring, thus want to nish the job as soon as possible,
then higher level of risk tolerance could happen
This means employers provide enough safety protection equipment and workers can get them at
any time. Enough protection equipment enhance their condence in dealing with risks
Effective and comprehensive safety training make workers aware of the seriousness and
consequences of accidents, thus lower their risk tolerance
Supervision from government or supervisor may lower workers willingness to take risks, then
lower their risk tolerance
Clear and specic safety regulation help workers realize the punishment of against safety
regulation, then lower their risk tolerance
The effect of peers behavior refers to workers would do as same as what their peer workers do. If
other workers complete work earlier by taking risks, it will enhance individuals risk tolerance to
take the same risks
Older worker seems have less willingness to take risk which resulted in lower risk tolerance
Workers with higher education tend to be more rational and cautious, while those who received
less education tend to be more fearless and impulsive
It means how serious do workers perceive the confronted risks. If workers believe the confronted
risks are more serious, they will not want to take the risks
Workers with stronger belief of they can handle most of the uncertainties would have higher
degree of risk tolerance
In some abrupt cases, quick response and decision making are required, as little time left for
thorough discussion and consideration. In these cases, workers risk tolerance vary depending on
time permission for making a decision
Relevant project information is vital in making the right decision, many risk assessment are
generally carried out with reference to the limited available historical accident data but other
considerations are ignored (Fung et al., 2012)
Boldness means the traits of being willing to undertake tasks that involve risk or danger. Decision
makers with this trait always have the ability to determine the right scheme timely and resolutely
This immediate supervisors safety attitude would have effect on workers safety risk tolerance
This means how much workers realize and emphasize on their safety
With specic decision motivation, the decision is of signicant directivity, which results in the fact
that the decision activity will move on toward expected direction and objective
The more safety knowledge the workers has, the more clear about the seriousness of risk taking in
construction project, then lower risk tolerance may happen (Pohjola, 2003)
The more willingness to take a risk, the stronger risk tolerance an individual may have (Hunter,
2006)
It refers to the ability that workers can make quick response and judgment to potential risks by
analyzing relevant information. More sensitive means the workers emphasis more on safety
issues, thus they have lower willingness to take risks (Wang, 2014)
Table 2
Ranking of critical factors affecting workers safety risk tolerance.
Factors
Mean
Standard deviation
Ranking
4.1414
3.7677
3.6936
3.6835
3.6800
3.5286
3.5219
3.5017
3.4579
3.3131
3.2054
3.2054
3.1825
3.1178
0.962
1.002
0.978
0.897
0.860
0.818
0.825
0.832
0.898
1.047
0.934
1.198
1.101
0.942
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
272
Table 3
Component matrix after varimax rotation.
Factors
Components
1
1
2
3
4
0.751
0.588
0.668
0.784
0.719
0.746
0.779
0.765
0.704
0.645
0.582
0.752
Table 4
Total variance explained for the critical factor groups.
Groups
0.732
0.669
% of variance
Cumulative (%)
6.373
4.724
3.372
2.237
25.495
17.896
13.947
8.829
25.492
43.391
57.338
66.167
belongs only to one of the four clusters generated by factor analysis, with the loading on each factor exceeding 0.50. Table 4 shows
the total variance explained, from which it can be seen that the four
components account for 66.17% of the variance.
Based on the critical factors in each group, the four components can be renamed as: (1) personal subjective perception; (2)
knowledge and experiences; (3) work characteristics; (4) safety
management, with the rst two items are internal and the latter
two are external, as shown in Fig. 5.
5. Critical paths
5.1. Hypotheses and model development
Based on the results of factor analysis, four groups, which have
effects on risk tolerance, have been identied. Two of them are characteristics of individuals which are grouped as internal factors; the
other two are external which come from the work environment that
individuals cannot control. Accordingly, four hypotheses (H1H4)
are proposed to investigate to what extent these four groups can
have effects on risk tolerance. Further, it is believed that workers with rich experiences and profession knowledge tend to be
more rational and objective when assessing their own capability to
tolerant safety risks. Thus, hypothesis (H21) regarding the relationships between the internal factors is proposed. Taking both internal
and external factors into consideration, good working environment
may shape individuals attitude and behavior (Wang and Yuan,
2011). As a result, hypotheses (H31, H32, H41, H42) regarding to
relationships between internal and external factors are developed.
All hypotheses can be described as below, and their relationships
with risk tolerance are shown in Fig. 6.
H1: Workers subjective perception has signicant effect on their
safety risk tolerance.
H2: Workers knowledge and experiences have signicant effect
on their safety risk tolerance.
H21: Workers knowledge and experiences have signicant effect
on their subjective perception.
H3: Work characteristics have signicant effect on workers safety
risk tolerance.
H31: Works characteristics have signicant effect on workers
subjective perception.
H32: Work characteristics have signicant effect on workers
knowledge and experiences.
273
Table 5
Cronbachs of each factor.
Factors
Cronbachs
Acceptable criteria
Risk tolerance
Subjective perception
Knowledge & experiences
Safety management
Working characteristics
0.856
0.713
0.707
0.809
0.711
0.600
0.600
0.600
0.600
0.600
274
Table 6
Fit indexes.
2 /df
RMSEA
GFI
AGFI
NFI
IFI
CFI
PGFI
2.05
0.060
0.832
0.805
0.876
0.859
0.857
0.717
dependent variable in per single unit change of the predictor (independent) variable. For example, for every single unit of increase
in workers subjective perception, the level of safety risk tolerance decreases by 0.218. The three asterisks accompanying the
path coefcients mean p < 0.001. Fig. 8 clearly illustrates the proved
hypotheses model, which is depicted in the following paragraphs.
In relation to internal factors and safety risk tolerance, Hypotheses 1 and 2 proposed that workers subjective perception and
knowledge & experiences have signicant effects on their risk
tolerance, which are supported by the results ( = 0.218 and
Table 7
Direct and indirect effect of identied factors in risk tolerance.
Fig. 8. Modied model of construction workers safety risk tolerance. (Note: solid
line means relationship exists, and dashed line means relationship does not exist.)
Effect
0.218
0.190
0.307
275
Table 8
Highest factor loadings of questionnaire items of identied factors in hypothetical model.
Groups
Subjective perception
Knowledge &
experiences
Work characteristics
Safety management
Questionnaire items
Factor loadings
SS01 I dont like to nish working in a hurry in order to get more pay
SS02 When I feel fatigue or tired, I dont want to do more work even if I could get more pay
SK05 I am very clear about all types of construction accidents
SK06 Thanks to my rich experiences, I know how to handle unforeseen accident situations
SW02 Supervisors/Technicians always tell me all specic instructions about the work I am going to do
SW03 It is necessary to attend safety meeting with managers and supervisors/technicians
SM06 There are sufcient resources available for safety in my company
SM07 The safety protection tools are available at any time I need
0.67
0.58
0.64
0.62
0.70
0.64
0.94
0.78
276
under 30
less than 5 years
Junior High school
Formwork
Age:
Working experiences
Highest Education
Type of work:
277
3040
510 years
Senior High School
Earth work
4050
1020 years
College
Steel xing
Risk tolerance
RT1
RT2
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
RT3
RT4
RT5
RT6
Codes
Statement
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neutral
Agree
Strongly agree
SS01
SS02
SS04
SK01
SK02
SK03
SK04
SK05
SK06
SW01
Work nature and
characteristics
SS03
Knowledge and
experiences
51 above
21 years and above
University and above
Interior Decoration
RT8
Personal Subjective
perception
in the that
Codes
RT7
Factor
SW02
278
Factor
Statement
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neutral
Agree
Strongly agree
SW03
SW04
SW05
SM01
Safety
management
SM02
SM03
SM04
SM05
SM06
SM07
SM08
SM09
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