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Graham’s Long-Term
Winning Approach for
Enterprising & Defensive Investors
By Cara Scatizzi
April 2006 21
AAII Stock Screens
promising investments among firms Table 1. Portfolio Characteristics for Graham Screens
outside of the “important” compa-
nies. He suggests looking among: Graham All
large companies unpopular, indicated Defensive Graham Exchange-
Investor Enterprising Listed
by a low price-earnings ratio (P/E); Portfolio Characteristics (Median) (Non-Utility) Investor Stocks
smaller companies in a top industry; Price-earnings ratio (X) 9.1 3.6 20.4
or, top firms in an unimportant in- Price-to-book-value ratio (X) 1.43 0.95 2.29
dustry. However, he advises against PE to EPS estimated growth (X) 0.95 0.40 1.40
small, undervalued companies, be- EPS 5-yr. historical growth rate (%) 22.7 20.8 10.2
lieving the company may not be able EPS 3-5 yr. estimated growth rate (%) 11.6 11.2 14.5
to sustain itself through an unstable Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.8 0.0
or adverse market. Current ratio (X) 2.5 2.1 2.1
Additional criteria for Enterpris- LT debt to working capital (%) 38.9 26.5 17.5
ing Investors are: Market cap. ($ million) 2,708.5 17,621.7 457.6
• A price-earnings ratio in the bot- Relative strength vs. S&P (%) –18 12 0
tom 10% of all stocks;
• Financial strength based on the Monthly Observations
current ratio and ratio of long- Average no. of passing stocks 17 5
term debt to working capital; Highest no. of passing stocks 35 15
• Positive earnings for the past five Lowest no. of passing stocks 1 0
years; Monthly turnover (%) 21.2 35.4
• Dividend paying;
*Within AAII’s Stock Investor Pro, the Defensive Non-Utility Graham screen is labeled Graham (Defensive-Industrial), the Enterprising screen is
labeled Graham (Enterprising), and the Defensive Utility screen is labeled Graham (Defensive-Utility).
22 AAII Journal
Performance
Determining the P/E Cut-Off for
Figure 1 shows the performance Graham’s Defensive Investor
of the Graham Defensive (Non-Utility)
screen and the Graham Enterprising In “The Intelligent Investor,” Graham’s goal for the Defensive Investor
Investor screen since 1998. was to establish a portfolio whose earnings yield [earnings divided by price
Both screens got off to a slow start, (E/P), or the inverse of the price-earnings ratio] was at least comparable
lagging the S&P 500 until 2000 with the to that of 10-year AA bonds. Therefore, he required the price-earnings
Enterprising screen posting negative ratio to be no higher than the inverse of investment-grade bond yields.
returns for 1998 and 1999. However, the Additionally, Graham modifies the price-earnings ratio by using the aver-
Graham approaches are value-oriented, age earnings over the last three years to account for special charges and to
so the early market-lagging performance overcome cyclical business impacts.
is not a surprise. The late 1990s marked At the time Graham wrote his book, investment-grade bonds were
the tail-end of a bull market, an environ- yielding 7.5%; the inverse of that yield (1 divided by 0.075) determined the
ment in which the focus was on growth overall portfolio price-earnings ratio objective of 13.3.
(particularly Internet stocks during this But current long-term high-grade corporate bond yields differ from those
tech bubble), and value approaches in prevailing when Graham set his price-earnings objective, and therefore the
general tended to lag the market. cut-off needs to be adjusted. When bond yields increase, Graham’s formula
The market environment changed requires a lower price-earnings ratio. Conversely, lower bond yields mean
dramatically when the technology sector that an investor could accept a higher price-earnings cut-off, which makes
bubble burst, causing value to come into more stocks available for consideration.
favor once again. In 2001, both screens The current AA 10-year bond yield is 5.1%; the inverse of the current
saw their highest yearly return—61.5% bond yield (1 divided by 0.051) is 20.
for the Defensive screen and 55.3% for
the Enterprising screen—in contrast to Profile of Passing Companies passed the Defensive Investor (Non-
the S&P 500, which lost 13.0%. Utility) screen, while only one passed
Cumulatively, each screen has Table 1 lists the characteristics of the Enterprising Investor screen.
outperformed the S&P’s small-, mid-, the stocks passing the Graham De-
and large-cap indexes since 1998. The fensive Investor (Non-Utility) screen Portfolio Turnover
Defensive Investor screen has gained and the Graham Enterprising Investor On average, the Defensive (Non-
345.0% from January 1998 through screen as of February 10, 2006. Utility) screen has 17 stocks passing
January 31, 2006, while the Enterprising Table 2 lists the passing stocks, each month, with an average monthly
Investor screen logged a higher return ranked in ascending order by price-earn- turnover rate of 21.2%. The Enterpris-
of 415.8% over the same period. ings ratio. The number of passing stocks ing screen has, on average, only five
for each screen is small—six companies stocks passing each month, with a 35.4%
PE LT Debt/ 52-
Using EPS Current Working Wk
Company (Exch: Ticker) PE Avg EPS PB Grth Div Ratio Capital Mkt Rel
Graham Defensive Ratio 3 Yrs Ratio 7 Yr Yield Q1 Q1 Cap Strgth
Investor (Non-Utility) (X) (X) (X) (%) (%) (X) (%) ($Mil) (%) Description
Ashland Inc. (N: ASH) 2.4 5.7 1.3 39.5 1.7 2.7 3.6 4,598.0 –3.0 paving & spec chems
POSCO (ADR) (N: PKX) 3.6 8.0 1.0 30.5 1.8 2.1 26.5 17,621.7 12.0 mfgs steel
Schnitzer Steel (M: SCHN) 6.6 9.5 1.5 51.0 0.2 2.6 37.1 945.4 –18.0 auto parts & steel
Liz Claiborne, Inc. (N: LIZ) 11.5 13.6 1.8 11.8 0.7 2.3 46.9 3,643.1 –24.0 brand apparel
Briggs & Stratton (N: BGG) 12.9 15.2 2.0 9.2 2.6 2.4 59.1 1,773.8 –19.0 gas engines
Steel Tech (M: STTX) 14.0 11.9 1.3 19.3 1.1 3.4 40.6 345.3 –18.0 steel processor
Exchange Key: M= NASDAQ National or NASDAQ Small Cap Market, N= New York Stock Exchange.
Source AAII’s Stock Investor Pro
Pro/Reuters Research, Inc. Data as of 2/10/2006.
April 2006 23
AAII Stock Screens
average monthly turnover rate. Graham recommends that Defen- the estimated earnings per share growth
It is not a surprise that both Gra- sive Investors multiply the price-earn- rate for five years).
ham screens have low turnover rates ings ratio by the price-to-book ratio
compared to all of the strategies AAII and seek stocks where that value does Dividends
follows, since value strategies in general not exceed 30 (an acceptable modified In addition to earnings growth,
tend to have lower turnover. price-earnings ratio of 20 times a 1.5 Graham is a firm believer in dividends.
price-to-book ratio). Both screens look for companies that
Price-Earnings Ratios Graham recommends that Enter- pay dividends.
Because Graham focuses on finding prising Investors should look for stocks The Graham Defensive (Non-
stocks selling at a significant discount, with a price per share that is less than Utility) screen requires that a company
the price-earnings ratio is an important or equal to 1.2 times its tangible book has paid a dividend over the trailing 12
characteristic for both Defensive and assets (price-to-book ratio), a more months and for each of the last seven
Enterprising Investors. restrictive criteria. years. [Although Graham suggests inves-
Graham’s Defensive Investor Not surprisingly, given these restric- tors examine a 20-year dividend history,
screen uses a modified version of the tions, Table 1 indicates that the median the AAII screen is constrained by the
price-earnings ratio, which averages price-to-book ratios for both the De- Stock Investor Pro database dividend his-
earnings over several years to account fensive screen (1.43) and Enterprising tory, which is limited to seven years.]
for special charges and to overcome the screen (0.95) are less than the typical As with other criteria for the Enter-
impact of cyclical business. Graham’s exchange-traded stock (2.29). prising Investor, the dividend criteria for
price-earnings ratio requirement for the this screen is more relaxed, only calling
Defensive Investor seeks to produce a Earnings Stability for a dividend payment over the trailing
stock portfolio that is reasonably priced Earnings stability is another impor- 12-month period.
compared to the current yield of AA tant principle for Graham. Both screens Both screens also require that a
bonds; in today’s interest rate environ- require positive historical earnings and company intends to pay a dividend over
ment, the Defensive Investor screen strong earnings growth rates. the next four fiscal quarters.
requires a modified price-earnings ratio The Graham Defensive (Non-Util- Dividend yields for the current list
of 20 or less [for more on how Graham ity) screen requires seven years of posi- of passing companies range between
determines the price-earnings ratio for tive earnings and a seven-year annualized 0.2%, for Schnitzer Steel, and 2.6%, for
the Defensive Investor, see the box on earnings per share growth rate of 3% Briggs & Stratton Corporation.
page 23]. or higher. [Although Graham suggests
Graham set a more restrictive price- investors examine a 10-year earnings Strong Financial Position
earnings ratio level for Enterprising history, the AAII screen is constrained Graham believes that a company
Investors, who should look for stocks by the Stock Investor Pro database earn- with a strong financial position can
with a price-earnings ratio in the lowest ings history, which is limited to seven continue to prosper—or at least not
10% of all stocks. As of February 10, years.] fail—during a downturn in the market.
2006, that means a price-earnings ratio The Graham Enterprising screen is A firm’s current ratio (current assets
of 9.5 or lower. less restrictive, requiring only positive divided by current liabilities) shows
Due to the value orientation of earnings over the last five years; it also the liquidity of a company’s assets; the
Graham’s screens, it is not surprising to requires that current fiscal-year earnings higher the ratio, the stronger the financial
see in Table 1 that the median price-earn- be higher than earnings five years ago. position of the firm.
ings ratio of the passing companies (9.1 Both screens have a higher historical The Graham Defensive Investor
for Defensive and 3.6 for Enterprising) earnings growth rate—22.7% for Defen- screen looks for stocks with a current ra-
is much lower than the typical exchange- sive and 20.8% for Enterprising—than tio of at least 2.0, while the Enterprising
traded stock (20.4). the average exchange-traded stock, with Investors screen considers stocks with a
Table 2 shows that Steel Tech- a 10.2% median growth rate. slightly lower current ratio of 1.5.
nologies, Inc. is the “richest” passing Among the passing companies listed Table 2 shows that Steel Technolo-
company, with a price-earnings ratio in Table 2, Briggs & Stratton Corpora- gies Inc. currently has the highest current
of 14.0. tion has the lowest seven-year annualized ratio of 3.4.
earnings growth rate of 9.2%, while In addition to liquidity, Graham
Price-to-Book Ratios Schnitzer Steel Industries has an impres- looks to long-term debt and its relation-
Graham also looks for securities sive 51.0% annualized growth rate. ship to working capital (current assets
with low price-to-book ratios, generally Graham’s focus on strong earnings minus current liabilities) as another
below 1.5. However, he feels that a low growth and low price-earnings ratios measure of financial stability.
price-earnings ratio can justify a slightly is reflected in the lower median PEG For both screens, Graham believes
higher price-to-book ratio. ratios (price-earnings ratio divided by long-term debt should not exceed net
24 AAII Journal
current assets or working capital. The stock currently passing the Defensive strength of 0%).
AAII screens have quantified this by Investor (Non-Utility) screen is $2.7
using a long-term debt to working billion while the one stock passing Conclusion
capital ratio, which, Graham specifies, the Enterprising screen has a market
should always be positive and less than capitalization of $17.6 billion. Three of Graham’s investing philosophy
or equal to 100%. the six companies passing the Defensive focuses on finding larger, well-known
Table 2 indicates that Ashland Inc. screen, including the one company also companies with strong historical growth
has by far the lowest ratio of long-term passing the Enterprising screen, are in rates that are selling at a discount. De-
debt to working capital, at 3.6%. the steel business. Most likely this is spite a slow start in 1998 and 1999, this
due to the cyclical nature of the steel approach, as embodied in AAII’s Gra-
Market Capitalization industry and a slowing demand for cars ham Defensive Investor (Non-Utility)
Most of the stocks currently passing and new homes. and Enterprising Investor screens, has
these two screens have median market proved to be a winning strategy over
capitalizations much larger than the Relative Strength the last eight years.
typical exchange-listed stock ($457.6 Over the past 52 weeks, the stocks The passing companies of each
million). This is to be expected, since currently passing the Defensive Investor screen do not represent a list of rec-
Graham favors larger companies, and (Non-Utility) screen have underper- ommended stocks. As with all types of
the Defensive Investor (Non-Utility) formed the S&P 500 by 18%, while the investing, it is important to perform due
screen requires annual sales of at least single stock passing the Enterprising diligence to verify the stock’s financial
$400 million. (The annual sales require- Investor screen has outperformed the strength and earning potential. It is also
ment has been raised from Graham’s market by 12%. essential to decide if the stocks match
original recommendation of $100 mil- The typical exchange-traded stock your investing style and risk tolerance
lion due to inflation.) has matched the performance of the before committing your investment
The median market cap of a S&P over the same time period (relative dollars.
April 2006 25