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  • Comparing Vegetation Response in Southern, Central and Northern California During The 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El Nino

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    jpeterson1
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    Austin Schneiderman, Mississippi State University - Abstract: Quantifying changes in regional impacts of the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is very important in order to understand and anticipate the potential impacts of El Niños. Two specific El Niños were chosen for this study because of their similar magnitude and their anomalous differences in local precipitation across California. Using images obtained in southern (SoCal), central (CeCal) and northern California (NoCal) by the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI), we evaluated the geographic patterns of precipitation enhancement during the 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El Niños. California's vegetation response during the El Niños was measured using Constrained Reference Endmember Selection (CRES) and Spectral Mixture Analysis to select endmembers and map fractional cover for green vegetation (GV), non- photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) and soil. Our initial analysis showed a greater amount of GV in locations where the enhanced precipitation fell (e.g. SoCal in '97-'98 and NoCal in '15-'16). By comparing the '97-'98 and '15-'16 seasonal change in GV (dGV), we anticipated southern California to show a decrease in dGV between the two El Niño's and for NoCal to show an increase in dGV, with CeCal lying between these trends. Our results confirmed this pattern, and in SoCal during the '15-'16 El Niño the total seasonal dGV was +1450.6 km2, which showed a negative trend compared to the +3841.2 km2 dGV that occurred during the '97-'98 El Niño. We found similar trends in CeCal and NoCal because the dGV in '15-'16 was greater than dGV in '97-'98 for both locations. The lack of precipitation is speculated to be a result of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), which nearly reached the Tropic of Cancer during the '15-'16 El Niño. If the SSTAs continue to reach very high latitudes during future strong positive ENSO phases, we can speculate that similar trends in GV will be found.

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    Comparing Vegetation Response in Southern, Central and Northern California during the 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El Nino

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    Austin Schneiderman, Mississippi State University - Abstract: Quantifying changes in regional impacts of the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is very important in order to understand and anticipate the potential impacts of El Niños. Two specific El Niños were chosen for this study because of their similar magnitude and their anomalous differences in local precipitation across California. Using images obtained in southern (SoCal), central (CeCal) and northern California (NoCal) by the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI), we evaluated the geographic patterns of precipitation enhancement during the 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El Niños. California's vegetation response during the El Niños was measured using Constrained Reference Endmember Selection (CRES) and Spectral Mixture Analysis to select endmembers and map fractional cover for green vegetation (GV), non- photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) and soil. Our initial analysis showed a greater amount of GV in locations where the enhanced precipitation fell (e.g. SoCal in '97-'98 and NoCal in '15-'16). By comparing the '97-'98 and '15-'16 seasonal change in GV (dGV), we anticipated southern California to show a decrease in dGV between the two El Niño's and for NoCal to show an increase in dGV, with CeCal lying between these trends. Our results confirmed this pattern, and in SoCal during the '15-'16 El Niño the total seasonal dGV was +1450.6 km2, which showed a negative trend compared to the +3841.2 km2 dGV that occurred during the '97-'98 El Niño. We found similar trends in CeCal and NoCal because the dGV in '15-'16 was greater than dGV in '97-'98 for both locations. The lack of precipitation is speculated to be a result of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), which nearly reached the Tropic of Cancer during the '15-'16 El Niño. If the SSTAs continue to reach very high latitudes during future strong positive ENSO phases, we can speculate that similar trends in GV will be found.

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    179 просмотров14 страниц

    Comparing Vegetation Response in Southern, Central and Northern California During The 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El Nino

    Загружено:

    jpeterson1
    Austin Schneiderman, Mississippi State University - Abstract: Quantifying changes in regional impacts of the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is very important in order to understand and anticipate the potential impacts of El Niños. Two specific El Niños were chosen for this study because of their similar magnitude and their anomalous differences in local precipitation across California. Using images obtained in southern (SoCal), central (CeCal) and northern California (NoCal) by the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI), we evaluated the geographic patterns of precipitation enhancement during the 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El Niños. California's vegetation response during the El Niños was measured using Constrained Reference Endmember Selection (CRES) and Spectral Mixture Analysis to select endmembers and map fractional cover for green vegetation (GV), non- photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) and soil. Our initial analysis showed a greater amount of GV in locations where the enhanced precipitation fell (e.g. SoCal in '97-'98 and NoCal in '15-'16). By comparing the '97-'98 and '15-'16 seasonal change in GV (dGV), we anticipated southern California to show a decrease in dGV between the two El Niño's and for NoCal to show an increase in dGV, with CeCal lying between these trends. Our results confirmed this pattern, and in SoCal during the '15-'16 El Niño the total seasonal dGV was +1450.6 km2, which showed a negative trend compared to the +3841.2 km2 dGV that occurred during the '97-'98 El Niño. We found similar trends in CeCal and NoCal because the dGV in '15-'16 was greater than dGV in '97-'98 for both locations. The lack of precipitation is speculated to be a result of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), which nearly reached the Tropic of Cancer during the '15-'16 El Niño. If the SSTAs continue to reach very high latitudes during future strong positive ENSO phases, we can speculate that similar trends in GV will be found.

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    Department of Geosciences

    Comparing vegetation response in southern, central


    and northern California during the 1997-1998 and
    2015-2016 El Nio

    Austin Schneiderman1, David Miller2, Dar Roberts2


    1Mississippi

    State University, Department of Geosciences, Mississippi State, MS


    University of California at Santa Barbara, CA

    Project Outline

    Research motivation
    Initial questions /objectives
    Quick look at 97-98 & 15-16 El Nio's
    Methods
    Results
    Conclusions

    Research Motivation

    California drought is arguably getting worse.. (extreme since 2011)*


    Policy improvement?

    Regional/local scale impacts will be measured


    Study specific regions of interest in California?

    Differences in these two events may provide insight to future events


    How are El Nio impacts changing in California?

    Assess drought impacts and evolution in California


    How does drought change throughout an enhanced hydrologic cycle?

    October-June

    Godzilla vs. 1997-1998 Nio


    Precipitation distribution
    1997/1998:

    2015/2016:

    Godzilla vs. 1997-1998 Nio


    SSTAs:

    Godzilla vs. 1997-1998 Nio


    500mb height and anomalies:

    Godzilla vs. 1997-1998 Nio

    Methods
    1. Choose locations of interest
    2. Data acquisition
    LANDSAT TM/OLI for 97/98 and
    15/16
    12 scenes for processing

    3. ENVI processing
    Veg. response calculated by looking
    at total change in NPV, GV and Soil
    VIPER Tools 2 (CRES, SMA)

    Santa Barbara 1997-1998


    1997
    R: 0.66 m
    G: 0.56 m
    B: 0.48 m

    R: NPV
    G: GV
    B: SOIL

    = V98 V97

    1998

    dGV_total = +3841.2 km
    dNPV_total = -3432.6 km
    dSOIL_total = -692.8 km

    Santa Barbara 2015-2016


    2015
    R: 0.66 m
    G: 0.56 m
    B: 0.48 m

    R: NPV
    G: GV
    B: SOIL

    = V98 V97

    2016

    dGV_total = +1450.6 km
    dNPV_total = -1728.4 km
    dSOIL_total = +1051 km

    Change in Soil, NPV and GV through time


    4000

    3841.2

    Area of change in km^2

    3000

    2000

    1450.6
    1051

    1000

    1024.8
    709.8

    698.1
    250.094
    4.4

    -1000

    -491.97

    -692.771

    1397.7

    1206.3

    477.166

    -571.9

    -935.9
    -1728.4

    -2000

    -3000

    -3432.6
    -4000

    SoCal - 97/98

    CeCal - 97/98

    NoCal - 97/98

    15.3

    dSOIL
    dNPV
    dGV

    Conclusions
    Reaffirms the need to improve water use policy in California
    over next decade
    Impacts in NoCal did not have much variation, SoCal site did

    Grass and shrubs were impacted by the rain much more than the highly
    dense forests
    Geographic location of NoCal keeps region fairly wet

    Gradient between CeCal/SoCal is interesting due to their


    proximity
    The Future for strong El Ninos

    Enhanced precip. transitioning to enhanced drought for central/southern


    California
    If SSTs continue to rise, the next strong El Nino could be even more
    drought inducing for southern California

    Acknowledgments
    Dr. Dar Roberts
    David Miller
    Land Group
    Dr. Emily Schaller
    NSERC
    SARP 2016
    Alex Kotsakis
    Barry Lefer

    Future Work
    Calculate dGV, NPV and Soil over entire
    state
    Measure dGV, NPV and Soil during
    moderate and weak El Ninos as well
    Use same methods over another site that
    receives enhanced precipitation

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