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North America
Market Commentary
The last trading day of the week brings a flurry of data. Well start in
China, where weaker than expected Industrial Production (6% vs.
6.2% exp) and Retail Sales YoY (10.2% vs. 10.3% exp) didnt stop
SHCOMP from rallying 1.6%. Kasper Bartholdy (head of emerging
markets strategy in FID) notes that in China, July of this year had 21
working days vs 23 last year. Against that background, Chinas IP
numbers look respectable. In Europe, Eurozone IP was a tick better
(+0.6% vs +0.5% exp), and Eurozone GDP was on the nose at +0.3%.
On a country level German GDP beat, and Portugal and Italy both
missed. On GDP our economists point out that a strong Q1 likely
meant there was going to be some payback in the second quarter, and
taken as a whole, H1 remained solid. UK construction output also
missed small (-2.2% vs -2.1% exp).
Here in the US, Retail Sales are expected to come in at +0.4%
headline, +0.1% ex-auto, and +0.3% ex auto & gas. PPI consensus is
+0.1% headline, +0.2% core, and preliminary U-Mich is expected to
come in at 91.5.
The latest note from our global strategy team (led by Andrew
Garthwaite) explores their near-term tactical concerns on the gold price
and particular gold stocks. The house view on gold is $1,475 in Q4
2016 (+10%) and $1,500 in Q1 2017 (+12%). The 3 key drivers of the
gold price are: 1) the US dollar; 2) real rates; and 3) fear of
financial/monetary instability (proxied by the price relative of financials).
While gold is marginally overvalued on the teams model (~4%), their
main concern is that gold stocks have hugely decoupled from the gold
price (the largest decoupling they have seen) suggesting investors are
discounting as our analysts suggest a $1,500 gold price. Lower
quality (low CFROI relative to peers) names have actually outperformed
high quality over the past year. The full note contains stock level detail,
and is available on CS Plus or by contacting your CS rep.
Printable Version:
.
MARKET UPDATE
NY Time: 8:09 AM
STOCKS
Americas:
Dow (Fut)
S&P500 (Fut)
% Chg
Level
Status
0.05% 18574.0
0.05% 2182.8
(Opn)
(Opn)
0.07%
0.24%
3046.0
6906.0
(Opn)
(Opn)
1.10% 16919.9
0.83% 22766.9
(Clsd)
(Clsd)
Europe:
EuroStoxx50 (Fut)
FTSE 100 (Fut)
Asia:
Nikkei 225
HangSeng
OPTIONS
VIX (Index)
BONDS
3 Mth Yld
2 Yr Yld
10 Yr Yld
FX
Euro
Pound
Aussie
Yen
COMMODITIES
Oil
Gold
-0.09 pts
11.59
(Opn)
0.00%
-0.01%
-0.02%
0.28%
0.73%
1.54%
(Opn)
(Opn)
(Opn)
% Chg vs USD
$-
$-
$-
$-
0.17%
1.116
0.05%
1.296
-0.30%
0.768
-0.03% 101.990
0.09%
43.53
0.07% 1339.60
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Page 1 of 4
US Trading Daily
12 August 2016
Source: Bloomberg
Page 2 of 4
2200
2050
2000
29-Jul
1-Jul
15-Jul
17-Jun
3-Jun
20-May
6-May
1950
2150
2100
22-Apr
Economic Statistic/Event
Consensus
Prior
Adjusted Retail & Food Services Sales SA Total Monthly % Change 0.4%
0.6%
Adjusted Retail Sales Less Autos SA Monthly % Change
0.2%
0.7%
Adjusted Retail Sales Less Autos and Gas Stations SA MoM Percent Change
0.3%
0.7%
Adj Retail Sales Less Food Auto Dealers & Build Materials & Gas Stations
0.3 MoM% 0.5
US PPI Final Demand MoM SA
0.1
0.5
US PPI Final Demand Less Foods and Energy MoM SA
0.2
0.4
US PPI Final Demand Less Foods Energy and Trade Services MoM 0.2
0.3
US PPI Final Demand YoY NSA
0.2
0.3
US PPI Final Demand Less Foods and Energy YoY NSA
1.2
1.3
US PPI Final Demand Less Foods Energy and Trade Services NSA YoY0.9
US Manufacturing & Trade Inventories Total MoM SA
0.1%
0.2%
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
91.5
90.0
University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index
109.0
University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index
77.8
UMich Expected Change in Prices During the Next Year: Median
2.7
UMich Expected Change in Prices During the Next 5-10 Years: Median 2.6
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
8-Apr
Time
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM
10:00 AM
Shares (Billions)
1900
Source: Bloomberg
US Trading Daily
12 August 2016
Activity on our desk was 63% for sale and institutions were 79% of our flows
Institutions were selling Gold (GLD), International (EFA) via ETF Nitro and Materials (XLB); buying EM Equity (EEM) via ETF
Nitro
Hedge funds buying EM Equity (EWW, EEM) and selling Real Estate (IYR).
Equity flows were positive for the sixth straight day yesterday, led by EM Equity (EEM +$604mm, IEMG US Equity, EWW US
Equity) and Small Cap (IWM +$391mm, VBK +$85mm)
Within sectors, Real Estate (VNQ +$189mm) and Discretionary (FXD +$210mm) both led while Energy lagged (XLE -$222mm,
XOP -$161mm)
IG Corporates were the biggest winners within Fixed Income (CIU +$111mm, LQD +$49mm).
Previous Day: What are the only Olympic sports the U.S. has never won a medal?
Answer: Table tennis, badminton, and handball.
Page 3 of 4
US Trading Daily
12 August 2016
Victor Lin
415-836-7643
victor.lin@credit-suisse.com
Josh Lukeman
} 212-325-3205
josh.lukeman@credit-suisse.com
Ana Avramovic
212-325-2438
ana.avramovic@credit-suisse.com
Justin Bojarski
justin.bojarski@credit-suisse.com
Meera Krishnan
meera.krishnan@credit-suisse.com
Rob Bernstone
212-325-3205
robert.bernstone@credit-suisse.com
Michael Strongin
212-325-3205
michael.strongin@credit-suisse.com
Justin Waluch
212-325-3205
justin.waluch@credit-suisse.com
212-325-7421
john.dwyer@credit-suisse.com
212-325-5227
tim.scanlon@credit-suisse.com
Futures
James Mckeever
james.mckeever@credit-suisse.com
Kevin Koenig
} 212-325-7764
kevin.koenig@credit-suisse.com
John Dwyer
Aunrie Dash
aunrie.dash@credit-suisse.com
Derivative Sales
Ron Cherry
ron.cherry@credit-suisse.com
Tim Scanlon
Special Situations
Tom Bruno
Interest Rates
212-325-3684
tom.bruno@credit-suisse.com
Praveen Korapaty
212-325-3427
praveen.korapaty@credit-suisse.com
Cash
Laura Prostic
212-325-2147
laura.prostic@credit-suisse.com
Page 4 of 4