Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Chapter 1
Urban China and Urban Transport Development................................................1
1.1
Urban Civilization.......................................................................................................1
1.2
Past, Present and Future of Urban Civilization..........................................................2
1.3
Urbanization Process in China....................................................................................4
1.4
Urban Transportation Development in China.............................................................6
1.5
Mutual Influence and Acceleration between Urban Transport and Urbanization
Process 10
1.6
International Perspectives on Urban Transport Development..................................12
1.7
Summary...................................................................................................................15
Chapter 2
Challenges and Opportunities Facing China's Urban Transport......................17
2.1
Chinas Urbanization Development Trend...............................................................17
2.2
Challenges and opportunities facing Chinas Urban Transport................................18
2.3
China's future urban transport development opportunities......................................22
2.4
Summary...................................................................................................................25
Chapter 3
Impact Factors and Implementation Approaches to China's Sustainable
Urban Mobility................................................................................................................................26
3.1
World Sustainable Mobility Study Overview...........................................................26
3.2
Definition and explanation of China's sustainable urban mobility..........................27
3.3
China's prospects for sustainable urban transport development..............................28
3.4
Objectives of Sustainable urban mobility development...........................................30
3.5
Major impact factors of Sustainable urban mobility................................................30
3.6
Approaches and steps to realize sustainable urban transport...................................33
3.7
Summary...................................................................................................................34
Chapter 4
Metropolitan Area and Regional Transport System...........................................36
4.1
History and Status of Metropolitan Area Development...........................................36
4.2
Basic Development Patterns for Metropolitan area and Regional Sustainable
Transport System......................................................................................................................37
4.3
Development and Sustainable Mobility in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Area
39
4.4
Conclusion................................................................................................................46
Chapter 5
Balanced Urban Development and Urban Transportation Planning................47
5.1
Overview of the Present Urban Planning in China..................................................47
5.2
Introduction to current urban transportation planning.............................................49
5.3
Experience of Developed Countries in Promoting the Balanced Development of
Land Use and Transportation....................................................................................................51
5.4
Implementation and Administration mechanism of balanced development of Land
Use and Transportation in Beijing............................................................................................53
5.5
New Technologies and Methods on Realizing a Harmonious Urban Spatial
Development.............................................................................................................................71
5.6
Model Analysis on Harmonious Urban Spatial Development.................................85
5.7
Thoughts and Methods on the Planning of Harmonious Land Use and Urban
mobility Development..............................................................................................................92
5.8
Application of Planning Information System for a Harmonious Development of
Urban Mobility and Land Use..................................................................................................95
5.9
Conclusion................................................................................................................99
Chapter 6
Underground Space Utilization and Urban Traffic Problem...........................103
6.1
Significance of Underground Space Utilization and Urban Transport 3-D
Development...........................................................................................................................103
6.2
Examples & Experiences from Urban Underground Use in the World.................108
6.3
Transport Functions of Urban Underground Space................................................120
6.4
Interaction between Underground Space Use and Urban Transport......................124
6.5
Planning for Urban Underground Transport System..............................................127
6.6
Progress of Worlds Urban Underground Freight Transit System (UFTS) &
Underground Logistics System (ULS)...................................................................................131
6.7
Problems and Directions of Urban Underground Transport System in China.......135
6.8
Conclusion..............................................................................................................137
Chapter 7
Urban Sustainable Mobility and Transportation Demand Management.......140
7.1
Introduction.............................................................................................................140
7.2
Travel demand mechanism.....................................................................................140
7.3
Framework of TDM................................................................................................141
7.4
Land use strategy and TDM....................................................................................143
7.5
Congestion toll and TDM.......................................................................................145
7.6
Information technology and TDM..........................................................................153
7.7
TDM practice in China...........................................................................................155
7.8
Conclusions and suggestions..................................................................................159
Chapter 8
Theory and Methodology in Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning...............161
8.1
Theoretical Framework for Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning........................161
8.2
Theory and planning methods based on transportation accessibility.....................165
8.3
Integrated urban and transportation planning.........................................................175
8.4
Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)...................................................................177
8.5
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Planning Research Guide..............................................191
8.6
Summary.................................................................................................................203
Chapter 9
Realization Mechanisms and Policies for Public Transport Priority..............206
9.1
Public transport priority..........................................................................................206
9.2
Market demand model on urban public transport: residents trip interaction and
decision making......................................................................................................................207
9.3
Supply-side incentive mechanism..........................................................................227
9.4
Policies and their influence.....................................................................................246
9.6
Policy Recommendations.......................................................................................262
Chapter 10 Energy Development for Urban Sustainable Mobility.....................................266
10.1
Introduction.............................................................................................................266
10.2
The overall energy status of China.........................................................................267
10.3
The fundamentals of sustainable transport energy development...........................285
10.4
Development trend of transport energy..................................................................288
10.5
Optimization methodology of urban transport energy supply...............................294
10.6
Conclusion..............................................................................................................312
Chapter 11 Urban Sustainable Transportation and Environment Impact Evaluation.....316
11.1
Overview of Environment Impact on Urban Transportation.................................316
11.2
Current Environment Issues on Urban Transportation...........................................316
11.3
Research Approaches to Evaluate Influence of Urban Traffic on Environment....324
11.4
Case study...............................................................................................................343
11.5
Summary.................................................................................................................352
Chapter 12 Impact of Automobile Technology on Urban Traffic........................................355
12.1
Introduction.............................................................................................................355
12.2
Development of the automobiles in China cities....................................................355
12.3
Development of energy saving and clean fuel for urban transport........................365
12.4
Ways to energy-saving and emission reduction.....................................................381
12.5
Conclusion..............................................................................................................389
Chapter 13 Performance Measures for Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning.................392
13.1
Objectives and principles of sustainable urban mobility planning........................392
13.2
Literature reviews on performance measures of sustainable urban mobility.........393
13.3
Indicators for sustainable urban mobility system...................................................395
13.4
Evaluation of sustainable urban mobility...............................................................397
13.5
Application and case studies...................................................................................401
13.6
Conclusions.............................................................................................................404
Additional Chapter A Treasury of Expert Viewpoints...........................................................406
Milestones of SUMO Project........................................................................................................420
Chapter 1 Urban
China
and
Urban
Transport
Development
1.1 Urban Civilization
City is an advanced form of humans social life. It is the outcome and the symbol of humans
civilization, functions as the center for social communications. It is also the very place where
different cultures converge and symphonize with one another, which manifest itself as the
milestone of humans endeavor towards a more mature, more civilized development period.
City is an essential component of humans civilization that is developed in accordance with
the advancement of humans civilization. According to discoveries made by archaeologists, the
earliest humans activities emerged in a city dated back to around 10,000 years, although human
has a history of more than 2 million years. Thus in term of time span, urban civilization plays a
minor role as opposed to the length of humans history, but the existence of the very first city on
earth is definitely a vital turning point of humans civilization.
In the long period of the primitive society, human relies heavily on natural resource
collection and gradually forms a relatively stable working force so called primitive community
in the matriarchal society. As the productivity keeps on developing, division of labor is of
necessity: agriculture and animal husbandry first dissociate themselves from the primitive
productivity. It is the first significant emergence of job division in human history and agriculture
becomes the main mode of production. People need to cultivate crops on lands where water is
accessible. In this sense the very first group of farmers settle down and form stable population
centers. As productivity further develops, people begin to have extra products and as a result lay
the basis for the exchange of goods. Specialized traders gradually appear, in the meanwhile also
appeared are the specialized handicraftsmen as the demand of life diversifies and the social jobs
further divided. Handicraft industry and commerce begin to dissociate them from agriculture,
which is now called the second most significant division of job in human history. The former
population centers develop gradually into two different types: villages that mainly do the
traditional agricultural production and cities where emerging commerce and handicrafts are of the
main function. In this sense, it is presumable to conclude that human settle down for the need of
agriculture, but the appearance and burgeoning of cities and the expansion of urban culture dates
back from the second most significant division of job in human history, namely, the transitional
period from primitive society to slavery society (Li Dehua, 2001) .
The mergence, development and construction of cities are closely related to their natural
surroundings. Human learns to adapt to nature by approaching good and avoiding bad. Among
many factors that affect the development of city, water is the most significant one. On the one
hand, water is a primary need for agriculture and the prerequisite for human existence; on the
other hand, floods must be prevented, for this reason most of the ancient cities were built near
rivers or lakes, and mostly on the banks that face the sun. The area long middle and down stream
of Yellow River in China, the Nile River in Egypt, and the Mesopotamia in western Asia used to
be advanced in agriculture. And also in these areas emerged the earliest cities in human history.
Apart from the continental cultures rising from agriculture, the other prosperous cities rose from
their prominent geographical situations and favorable harbor conditions were also birth places for
marine culture.
Fast development of cities depends on the industry and economy level. In the ancient feudal
society of China, many commercial metropolises were developed in places where commerce was
prosperous and handicraft industry was concentrated. These metropolises would continue its
prosperity for a relatively long period: despite damages during war time, the city survived would
soon revive again, like Suzhou, Yangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu etc, for example. In a similar
way, other Mediterranean cities like Milan, Venice, Paris etc, were also important commercial and
trade centers. After the industry revolution, the process of urbanization was greatly propelled.
Farmers kept on migrating into new industrialized city, and cities experienced a growing speed
that had never been anticipated before. Until the eve of the 1st World War, western countries like
Britain, America, Germany and France had reached a relatively high level of urbanization. It is not
only a sign of prosperity, but also of a sign of civilization.
However, while creating immense prosperity, city also brings problems. The Industry
Revolution broke up the balance among cities and countryside formed in the agriculture
civilization. When large population crowded into the city, the facilities soon became insufficient,
for example, housing, water supply, drainage utilities, traffic capacity, and other available
resources. The wide usage of motor cars resulted in an unexpected expansion of urban areas.
Cities become more congested, more resource consuming, and have more environmental pollution
problems. In this sense, the unconstrained fast urban development will obstruct the development
of human well-being.
Source: Zhou Yixing, 1995; United Nations Human Settlements Programme UN-HABITAT, 2007
are typically in small scales, with compacted form, and with development concentrated in the
urban center.
Besides capitals, other cities in ancient China generally followed guidelines of the gridiron
road layout. Exceptionally, the road network in cities on the south of the Yangtze River was
affected by the advanced waterway network, which was the main circulation system in the cities.
In those cities, the roads along the rivers only served for short distant walk.
In summary, the road network layout in ancient cities was dominated by gridiron system.
Correspondently, cities were formed in an orderly and compact style.
relevant to all aspects of the city, must be addressed properly from the perspective of urban
development.
1.5 Mutual
Influence
and
Acceleration
between
Urban
10
study on intercity transport; Transport planning and policies should respond to the dynamic
changes in urbanization and metropolitanizaiton.
1.6 International
Perspectives
on
Urban
Transport
Development
Foreign cities have experienced the process of urbanization and motorization, and have
11
accumulated rich experiences that we could lesson in the development of cities and urban
transport. To refer to these experiences is of significant importance for the Chinese cities to make
fewer detours, to avoid major mistakes in decision-making, to reduce waste of time and resources,
and as a result to achieve the healthy and rapid development.
12
important industrial city and harbor of UK, one of the world's top ten cities. The 12 urban areas
inside London are called Inner London, and 20 urban areas outside London city are called external
London. London City with both the inside and the outside London are collectively known as
Greater London City with an area of 1,580 square kilometers. As an international metropolis,
Londons key strategies to address urban transport problems are:
(1) Rely on advanced MTR network, a huge suburban railway network and bus lines
network.
London subway owns nine lines with a total length of 414 kilometers and a total number of
270 stations. Suburban railway is as long as 650 km with 550 stations. City Centre has 15
radically laid-out terminals. Central London is region with a high-density of MTR network, and
bus lines are reasonably connected with the network, in order t handle commuter trips in the
central areas. At the same time, the huge railway network connects inner London with the
outskirts, providing travel service covering a large area of London.
(2) Strict car-use management policies and measures
Greater London is divided into three regions, the City of London have a high density of the
MTR network in the region, the road congestion pricing policies are also implemented here so as
to improve the public transport system. Outer London allows the use of cars to certain extent.
Enlightenments of Great Londons experience to China's urban transport development:
(1) Improve the hierarchical structure of the MTR network ; clearly define the functionality
of various lines.
(2) Strengthen the management of private motor vehicles, and formulate concrete measures
to restrict the scope of their activities to ensure the operational standard of public transport.
13
parking in the city; provide car parking spaces near suburban railway stations to encourage people
to take public transport;
(2) Built high-speed ring road to strengthen the connection between the central city and
suburban centers;
(3) As to urban freight, simplify the process of commodity distribution and storage to reduce
freight flow. Significant economic effects were achieved from designated place and time of
delivery and rational use of the road.
Enlightenments of Pariss experience to China's urban transport development:
(1) Accelerate the construction of the MTR. Experience has shown that subway development
is the trend of transport development in major cities and also a determinant factor to successful
transit priority implementation.
(2) Develop suburban railway transport. Railway is the most cost-effective means of transport
between major cities and their satellite cities, convenient for both passengers and commodity
transport.
(3) Establish integrated transportation terminals to improve the connection efficiency of
transfer.
14
transportation) construction, to make the urban transport moving towards a people-oriented system
with highly efficiency, low-consumption, and sustainable development.
(2) Integrate urban land use plan with rapid rail transport system plan and encourage the
balanced development; Guide land use by transit-oriented development principles.
1.7 Summary
Urban development and the process of human civilization are closely related. The emergence of
city is accompanied by development of human societys second largest division of labor. And the
first period of the upsurge of urban civilization is closely related to the industrial revolution. The
urban development experience since the 1920s has shown that industrialized cities have created
tremendous material wealth; they have also brought unprecedented urban problems. Thus, people
began to reflect on the relationship between man and nature, and formed the "ecological city"building objectives in an attempt to ease the constraints of urban development pressure on the
environment, resources and the ecological pressure.
As the opening chapter of the book, this chapter discusses cities and the evolution of human
civilization, the present and future development trends of the urban civilization. In our judgment,
the urban development is shifting from an industrial and commercial city, a handicrafts city
towards an eco-industrial city and a civilized city. In this context, this chapter introduces the
urbanization and the development of urban transport in China. China's urbanization is divided into
the initial stage of development, fluctuation stage, the stagnancy stage, the recovery stage and the
acceleration stage. This chapter also sums up the features of development of ancient and modern
transportation in China. By generalizing the mutual promotion and impact upon each other, this
chapter states that the close connections existed between urban development and transportation.
Finally, this chapter summarizes the national and international experience and lessons learned in
urban transport development that could be served as valuable reference and inspiration to
implement a vigorous, balanced and sustainable transportation system in urban China.
References
[1] National Bureau of Statistics of China. 2006. Statistical Yearbook of China
[2] Li Dehua, 2001. Urban Planning Principle. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press.
[3] Peng Liren, He Min, Mao Haixiao, Ren Futian, 2004. Study on the Characteristics of Urban
traffic Development in China. Journal of Beijing University of Technology, Vol.30, No.3: 323328.
[4] Qiu Baoxing, 2007. Outlook of Urban Transportation Development in China. Urban Transport
of China, Vol.5, No. 5: 6-12.
[5] UN-Habitat, 2007. 2006/2007 World's Cities report.
[6] Zhang Hongen, Li Keji, 2007. The influences of Chinese ancient traffic model on urban
development. Shanxi Architecture, Vol.33, No.23: 43-44.
[7] Zhou Yixing, 1995. Urban Geography. Beijing: The Commercial Press.
15
16
17
Figure 2.5 Per Capita Disposable Income and Growth Rate for Urban
Population 2003-2007
2.2 Challenges
and
opportunities
facing
Chinas Urban
Transport
2.2.1 Chinas urban transport present condition and future tasks
The accelerated process of urbanization and urban socio-economic development exacerbates the
contradictions between traffic supply and demand; Chinese cities are now facing traffic
congestion, accident, environmental pollution and the rapid increase in energy demand and the
pressure of rapid urbanization. The main causes leading to the current traffic problems are:
(1) The rapid urban development impact greatly upon the existing urban traffic patterns
Configuration and adjustment of city's function zones change the original distribution and
characteristics of passenger and cargo transport. transport network and bus lines should also be
adjusted accordingly; expansion of the urban space, requires greater transfer speed; high-intensity
land development makes the passenger and cargo flow exceeds the capacity of the road;
improvements in the living standards of residents require better transport service; a substantial
increase in motor vehicle demand improvements in the existing technical standards and road
traffic capacity; Multi-level traffic demand makes it necessary to build a new comprehensive
transportation system.
(2) Lack of integration between expansion of urban space and transport development;
Transport development lags behind
due to lack of effective institutional and policy assurance, the connection between dynamic
urban development and urban transport has not yet been established, resulting in many major
cities in the central area continuing to aggregate, with excessive functions concentrated in the
downtown area, increased population density and job opportunities in the center of the city, The
central area continues to extend over the original scale, which further intensify inner city
transportation problems. The situation that population and industry keep on gathering in the urban
areas will persist.
High-speed highway corridors stimulate the rapidly growing car use; traffic analysis shows
certain centripetal and recurrent features of travel. The traffic conditions continue to deteriorate.
For example: Within Beijing's Third Ring Road, lane miles traveled within the urban area
accounts for 60 percent of the total in the city; within the Second Ring, namely Old City, accounts
for 47% of the total; The intensity of motor vehicle travel inside the city is 3.6 times that of the
external area. In the past eight years, the intensity of vehicle travels in the old city has increased
by 1.6 times (Beijing Transportation Committee, the Beijing Municipal Traffic Research Center,
2004).
(3) Serious traffic congestion in major cities restrained the economy and society development
In recent years, although major cities are accelerating the construction of urban transport
18
facilities, but contradiction between traffic supply and demand is still acute. Congestion in general
shows an increasing trend. The average traveling speed in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities
decreased from of 40 km / h during peak hours to 20 km/h. Traffic congestions are serious
problem in these cities and the average traveling speed in the center of the mega cities could be as
low as 5 km/h (Qiu Baoxing, 2007). Traffic jams decrease the operational efficiency, also
increases the operating costs, and has seriously hampered the economic and social development.
(4) The lack of guided development of private cars further deteriorates urban transportation
structure
With the improvement in living standards and the increase in travel distance, public demand a
more comfort, flexible and convenient private travel mode, the ownership of private cars increases
remarkably. And compared to rapid development of private cars, the development of public
transport is relatively slow. As to Beijing, the roads and public transport investment ratio is 2.3 to1
and during the "9th Five-Year" this ratio further declined to 4.6 to1. The limited transport
infrastructure funds are mainly spent on highway and bridge construction, which virtually
stimulates the development of private car, and inhibits the development of urban public transport
(Wang Jingxia, 2006). According to the reported statistics, Beijing's public transport ridership has
decreased from 35 percent in 1986 to 29 percent in 2005 (Yu-Ling Zhang, 2006). Therefore, how
to accelerate the development of public transport so that individuals would choose public
transport, and how to make the comprehensive urban transportation system more rational are
demanding tasks for us.
(5) There is a substantial gap between the existing urban transport infrastructure and the
requirement of sustainable development.
At present, China's urban transport is at a low level, with undesirable road conditions,
insufficient management and fall-behind technology that lead to high possibilities of traffic jams
and accident, therefore seriously affect daily life and restrain the city's social-economic
development.
(6) Insufficient investment in public transit slows the development of public transport
Most of the cities invested little in public transport, resulting in public transport facilities and
services at a lower level. In 2004, the urban public transport investment in fixed assets totaled
32.85 billion, which accounts for 6.9 percent of the total fixed assets invested in urban
construction, compared with 44.7 percent invested in highway and bridges during the same period.
The shares of fixed assets invested in urban public transport are, 26.26 billion in mega cities with
80.0% of the total; 1.34billion in metropolis, accounting for 4.1 percent; 1.23billion in major
cities contribute, accounting for 3.7 percent; 4.02billion in small and medium-sized cities with
12.2 percent. On the whole the investment was insufficient (Qiu Baoxing, 2006). The serious
investment shortage limited the construction of bus stations and other infrastructures, thus
seriously obstruct the development of urban public transport.
(7) Inadequate transportation system integration; Resources are not being fully utilized
There lacks coordination between transport planning and urban space layout planning;
managements of different modes of transport lack integration; transport agencies lack
19
20
2.2.3 Environmental
development
impact
of
China's
urban
transport
In recent years, China's rapid development of urban transport has caused increasingly serious
pollution, and urban transportation becomes a major source of urban pollution.
21
In regard to atmospheric pollution, as China's economy maintains rapid growth and gradually
accelerated process of urbanization, the transport needs of urban residents in recent years have
experienced rapid growth, and motor vehicles maintenance has enjoyed a substantial increase. As
a result of this, photochemical smog pollution caused by vehicle emission in major cities gradually
increases, the concentration of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ozone (O3) has by far exceeded the
national standards in many cities such as Guangzhou, Beijing, Ningbo, Wuhan, Shanghai; air
quality has been seriously deteriorated, compound pollution such as vehicle exhaust and smog also
appears.
In respect to traffic noise, despite the mean of urban road noise can achieve national
standards, but noise on most urban trunk road exceeds the standards.
Impact on the environment caused by urban traffic has reached a fairly severe level. To
reduce its negative impact on the urban environment is the urgent demand of the current urban
development.
22
23
24
transportation services. Accessibility no longer suffices, higher level of comfort and other service
properties of transportation are required.
2.4 Summary
China's sustainable urban transport development is facing unprecedented challenges as well as
opportunities under the new situation. From the development trend of urbanization, Changes such
as large number of transfers from rural to urban areas, continuous improvement in urban system,
urban expansion of regional town/city group, will have a tremendous impact on urban transport
development. In this situation, resources and environmental restrains closely related to urban
transport development and traffic demand are the key factors to be considered in the process of
making transport development strategies. China's unique traditional culture (For example, the
concept of harmony between man and nature) is incorporated into urban planning and construction
process and becomes a social norm of the public.
In the new development era, progresses made in technology, energy security, environmental
protection, traffic and lifestyle changes have brought new opportunities to the development of
China's urban transport. Whether we can take these opportunities is closely related to the
successful implementation of a sustainable urban transport system.
References
[1] Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications, Beijing Transportation Research Center,
2004. Beijing Transportation Development Guideline.
[2] Qiu Baoxing, 2006. Fulfill bus transportation priority strategy, expedite the construction of
socialist harmony: a talk on the working meeting of national bus transportation priority. Urban
Vehicles, 2007, 1
[3] Qiu Baoxing, 2007. Outlook of Urban Transportation Development in China. Urban Transport
of China, Vol.5, No. 5: 6-12.
[4] Tsinghua University, Sustainable Urban Mobility Project Group, 2007. Urban sustainable
Mobility in China: Problems, Challenges and Realization. Beijing: China Railway Publishing
House.
[5] Wang Guangtao, 2006. The situation and mission of Urban transport planning. Urban
Transport of China, Vol.4, No.1: 1-4.
[6] Wang Jingxia, 2006. Changes for the Function and Mentality of Urban Transport Planning in
New Time. Urban Transport of China, Vol.4, No.1: 17-22.
[7] Wang Xiaoming, 2005. Consideration of the Parking Issues in Beijing. Urban Transport of
China, Vol.3, No.3: 32-35.
[8] Zhang Yuling, 2006. Triple thinking of "Public Vehicles Archive". GuangMing Daily,
November 9, 4.
25
Chapter 3 Impact
Factors
and
Implementation
26
decisions of sustainable mobility. These findings provides basis for future studies. However, they
are still preliminary works on theoretical and practical process of incorporating sustainable
development into transportation planning and management (LU Huapu et al, 1999).
The studies in China can be divided into two directions; one is on practical problems solving
and policy decisions of sustainable urban mobility in China, and the other is on sustainable urban
mobility planning theory and methods. The former mainly concentrates the efforts from
transportation institutes, e.g. Tsinghua University Sustainable Urban Mobility Project with
publication titled Sustainable Urban Mobility in China: Problems, Challenges and Realization"
(2007), China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development
(CCICED) associated with Academy of Transportation Science, Ministry of Communication
(2005). The latter are mainly studies conduced by Universities in China, such as Tsinghua
University (Lu Huapu et al, 2006, 2007; Shen Wei, 2005; Wang Yuanyuan, 2004), Southeast
University (Lu Jian, 2003), to name a few.
In order to evaluate the performance of urban transportation system, many measurements are
put forward in China and abroad. Typically, the following are widely used: Canada STPI
(Sustainable Transport Performance Indicators), Germany COMPASS (COMPAnies' and Sectors'
path to Sustainability), Stockholm (Sweden Stockholm) regional planning indicators, the United
Kingdom LTP (Local Transport Plan) indicators, the Smooth Traffic Project Indicators established
by Ministry of Public Security and Ministry of Construction of China, and measurement made by
Southeast University.
27
3.3 China's
prospects
for
sustainable
urban
transport
development
3.3.1 An Ideal Model for Future Urban Development
According to the study made by UN-HABITAT, in next 50-100 years, more than two thirds of
total world population will live in cities. Restrained by limited natural resources, and environment,
and population, human society will face unprecedented challenges in urban development.
Therefore, to explore an ideal model for urban development and an ideal form for human habitat
so as to construct an urban society featuring high efficiency, health, and equality and to achieve an
ideal habitat environment, these are issues being given increasingly priorities by all governments,
international institutions and academic communities.
Eco-city is a concept first proposed during the research of Man and the Biosphere (MAB)
Program launched by UNESCO in 1970s and received extensive attentions immediately from the
entire world. Instead of seeking simply a beautiful natural environment, a high green area
coverage rate, a low environment pollution, a clean and beautiful environment or a city depends
totally on the operation rules of natural systems, people shall focus on the overall and sustainable
development of natural compound social and economic systems. An eco-city is an advanced form
and stage for modern urban development, featuring the harmonious coexistence of people and
nature, the high efficiency in resource utilization, the sustainability of urban development, the
integrity of efficiency realization, as well as the globalized cooperation.
Since 1980s, the international community started the research on eco-city and many countries
started to make the concept into reality. The concept of constructing eco-city proposes a new goal
for the development of modern cities, and to construct an eco-city shall not limited by making
corrections to the pollution and consequential results caused by technological and urban
development, but must focus on a process of creation instead, during which both people and the
nature develop harmoniously and continuously. At present, ecological garden city advocated by
Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction is a short-term goal for constructing eco-city
and has important significance in promoting the sustainable economic and social growth in China.
28
With economic development in urban China, GDP increased and the living standards of
people are promoted, and the urbanization process begins to accelerate, in the meanwhile the
number of vehicles is increasing. The primary issue of urban mobility system is the contradiction
between the rapid increasing demand for mobility and the limited transportation supply. To meet
the demand for motorized transportation, the transportation planning is mainly mobility-oriented,
and the construction of infrastructures is demand-driven. These infrastructures, such as wider
streets, better expressways and intersections, stimulate the use of motorized vehicles especially
private cars. In no more than ten years, traffic congestions in Chinas big cities due to the
excessive use of motorized vehicles. In conclusion, it is not appropriate to encourage private car
use in urban China.
(3) The speed up phase
During this period, the priority issues become the conflicts between public transportation and
private transportation. In response to the rapid development of motorization, the Smooth Traffic
Project has been carried out in urban China from the year 2000, in order to promote urban
development in a healthy and scientific manner. The policy of public transit priority becomes of
the primary strategy for urban mobility development. The Ministry of Construction promised that
in the year 2010 the public transit will be the major component in urban transportation system.
(4) The mature phase
In future, the contradiction between the level of transportation service and peoples diverse
demands for transportation will become the critical issue. To solve it, a new model of urban
mobility system is in need, which offers people quick, safe, highly efficient and highly accessible
services. The characteristics of such a model should be:
Coordination: The transportation development should be consistent with ecological
environment and the demand of people and national economy for transportation. For this purpose,
it is necessary to consider land use and transportation, different modes, network and hubs,
planning, construction and management in an integrated system framework.
Efficiency: Such a system should provide smooth, safe, comfortable, reliable, multi-modal
and multi-level transportation services. It is important to establish a comprehensive transportation
system with seamless transferring.
Accessibility: This system should improve the ease of people reaching activities for desired
purposes. The measure of accessibility should be incorporated into the transportation planning
process.
Ecology: This system should preserve resources and reduce environmental pollutions, to
sustain the healthy development of itself while meet the development needs of society and
economy.
People-oriented: This system should emphasize on demand of people, focusing on personal
development and social equity, and provide transportation modes that are comfortable,
environment-friendly and people-oriented.
29
30
structure is the composition of different transport modes working orderly and reasonably.
Therefore, transport structures are different from one another as mode shares are different. For
urban China, due to the limited land resources, public transport should be prioritized in the
transportation structure for the reason that public transport can reduce land use, energy
consumption and environmental impacts.
(3) Urban road network
Urban road network, from the supply side, plays an important role in transport system. The
features of road network have a great influence on urban transport and urban development. The
total mileage of road network is one of such significant features. The ratio of urban road area to
total urban area should be kept in a reasonable range. Besides that, the hierarchical structure,
functionality and connectivity of road network are also important in road system.
(4) Urban traffic management
Urban traffic management is the guarantee system for urban transport and urban
development. It provides an implementation tool for handling the problems facing urban transport.
The goal of traffic management is to achieve the efficient, convenient, comfortable, energy-saving
and environment-friendly transport and urban prosperity. It is worth noting here that the urban
traffic management is a systematic approach involving efforts from a wide range of areas
including planning, design, construction, operation, management and evaluation.
(5) Transportation demand management
Transportation demand management, from the demand side, provides large amounts of
strategies to adjust and control urban travel demand. The strategies, by means of transport
planning, policy and traffic management, seek a balanced distribution of traffic flows temporally
and spatially.
31
32
Besides, it should fully utilize the existing transport infrastructure by scientific and modern
management of urban transport.
The two aspects includes: implement measures from transport supply and demand sides at the
same time so as to dynamically balance the supply and demand.
3.7 Summary
Guided by the principle of better city life, this chapter details the basic conception, explanation
and objectives of sustainable urban mobility, and analyzes the influencing factors including urban
form and land use, transportation structure, road network, traffic management and transportation
demand management, as well as the interaction and evolution mechanisms between these factors.
33
At last, the overall idea of solving urban transportation problems is proposed from three
dimensions and two aspects.
The sustainable urban mobility system is defined as a comprehensive mobility system that
can meet the rational demands of present urban development for mobility to the utmost extent at a
relatively small resource input and low environmental cost, without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs. The system shall have the following primary
characteristics: safe, smooth, comfortable, environment-friendly, energy-efficient, highly efficient
and highly accessible. The objective of sustainable urban mobility system is to meet the demand
for mobility, optimize use of resources, improve environmental quality, promote social harmony,
and increase level of safety so as to realize the virtuous development cycle of society, economy,
mobility and environment.
References
[1] China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED),
2005. China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Ministry of Communications. Strategy and
Policy Series for Sustainable Transportation development in China. Beijing: China
Communications Press
[2] Lu Huapu, 1999. Advanced management of Urban Transportation System. Beijing: China
Communications Press.
[3] Lu Huapu, Gao Song, 1999. Active Demand-guiding: new theory of transportation planning
considering the sustainable development. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research
and Development, Vol.16, No.4: 29-33.
[4] Lu Huapu, Mao Qizhi, Lee Zheng, He Kebin, Shuai Shijin, Zhang Liang, 2006. Urban
Sustainable Mobility: problems, challenges and research topics. Urban Studies, Vol.13, No.5:
91 -96.
[5] Lu Huapu, Ye Shi, WANG Ji-feng, 2007. Sustainable urban transport: evolution mechanism
and implementation approaches. Comprehensive Transportation, 2007 No. 3: 5-10.
[6] Lu Jian, 2003. Sustainable urban transportation planning: theory and methods [D]. Nanjing:
Southeast University.
[7] Shen Wei, Lu Huapu, 2005. A Model and its application of transportation structure
optimization based on urban sustainable development. Central South Highway Engineering,
Vol.30, No.1: 150-153.
[8] Tsinghua University, Sustainable Urban Mobility Project Group, 2007. Urban sustainable
Mobility in China: Problems, Challenges and Realization. Beijing: China Railway Publishing
House.
[9] Wang Yuanyuan, Lu Huapu, 2004. Integrated model of urban land-use and modal split based
on urban sustainable development. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and
Techonology), Vol.44, No.9: 1240-1243.
[10]World Bank, translated by Urban Transport Center, Ministry of Construction, 2002.
Sustainable urban transport: the prime issues of policy reform. Beijing: China Architecture &
34
Building Press.
35
reform on market-oriented socialist economic system, the property, scale, speed, and performance
of inter-city relationship became further reinforced and promoted, resulting in a general trend of
integration. At present, therere three leading urban agglomeration in China, namely, the Yangtze
River Delta Area, the Pearl River Delta Area, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area, all with a general
trend of rapid growth.
(2) Current Status of Urban Agglomeration
According to the analysis made by Jean Gottmann, urban agglomeration with a total
population of more than 30 million is known as Megalopolis. Based on this standard, three leading
city clusters in Yangtze River Delta Area, the Pear River Delta Area, and Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan
Area are mega urban agglomeration. As megalopolis at national level, they will form the basic
framework for urban development in China and represent the urbanization level in this country.
But there are many problems during the process of Megalopolis development and the leadings
ones are as follows: urban agglomeration is in want of radiating core and the function of central
city is not prominent; the industrial chain in urban agglomeration is weak and the integration
among different cities is low; the functions of different cities in urban agglomeration are not
clearly defined, without secondary city cluster system featuring multiple layers; local interests
still impede the integration of urban agglomeration and theres no effective coordination
mechanism available.
36
relatively compact space and to realize intensive expansion and sustainable regional transport
development.
(1) Transport System Development and Urban Agglomeration Spatial Evolution
During the process of regional development and construction, the transport system
development and urban agglomeration evolution interact and are mutually dependent, for the
growth of urban agglomeration needs the support of traffic system, while the transport
development will guide the evolution of urban agglomeration. To sum up, the functions of
transport system development on the evolution of urban agglomeration space are twofold: on the
one hand, it promotes and guides the urban spatial expansion; on the other hand, it directly
changes regional conditions and functioning scope for urban development, creating new attractive
regional nodes enjoying transport advantages and new cities or city functioning areas before
further changing original spatial structure of urban agglomeration.
(2) Urban Agglomeration Transport System Construction Pattern
In terms of current urban agglomeration transport development in China and its formation of
mainly high-graded road network and railway network in a short term, the long-term plan is to
construct a system composed of high-graded road network and regional rail transport system so as
to finally construct a high-speed urban agglomeration transport system focusing on rail traffic,
high degree of flexibility, and multiple means and to realize the regional public transport system
and to guarantee an intensive utilization of regional social resources and an orderly development
of the space.
High-speed rail transport
As a public transport means with scale effect, regional high-speed rail transport system is a
new technology universally adopted in urban agglomeration at present. On the one hand, it helps
to promote and support the extension of urban space along transport corridor and to change the
development form of urban agglomeration; on the other hand, it helps to achieve the intensive belt
development in downtown areas as well as the intensive area development in suburban areas (Pan
Haixiao, 2002) so as to achieve a compact urban core area and a compact group areas along the
transport lines. The barrier for the construction of regional rail transport facilities is relatively high
investment and whether there is enough traffic flow. Currently, most urban agglomerations in
China dont have conditions to construct regional rail transport facilities, but since this is the
inevitable trend in future, the space for rail transport facilities shall be reserved in advance during
planning.
High-speed bus transport
At present, Chinese urban agglomeration shall actively develop public transport systems
focusing on high-speed bus transport and shall promote the construction of high-speed public
roads connecting urban agglomeration as well as exclusive public transport lanes in urban trunk
road lines so as to reinforce the accessibility and availability of traffic means between cities and
inside cities. Moreover, compact city group shall be constructed along public transport lines
featuring the comprehensive utilization of land resources so as to achieve urban agglomeration
space with nodes of towns and cities intensively located and at different levels and with
37
38
cities including Chengde, Qinhuangdao, Zhangjiakou, Cangzhou, and Shijiazhuang, with a total
land area of 170,000 square kilometers and a population of more than 60 million, which is also
known as Greater Beijing Area, or the capital region and its environs in historic literature, or the
capital zone by some scholars. Taking into consideration of Hengshui, Xingtai, and Handan city in
south Hebei Province, the total land area of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area is 216,000 square
kilometers, and the total population in two cities and one province is nearly 100 million.
Source: the Second Report on the Rural and Urban Spatial Development Planning Study for the Capital Region
39
40
41
Source: the Second Report on the Rural and Urban Spatial Development Planning Study for the Capital Region
42
restricted development, to construct regional ecological environment and treat the areas along the
river on a comprehensive basis, to protect the farming land and forests in areas without sufficient
water resource, to develop ecological green land, to improve ground coverage, to combine
ecological environmental protection and construction, to develop urban development belt and
urban corridor along Mount Yan and Taihang Mountain, in coastal areas and along trunk transport
lines.
To construct a comprehensive transport system and to reorganize development space
It is required to actively promote the construction of inter-city high-speed rail network, to
reinforce passages with big capacity, so as to create new conditions for the expansion of urban
areas and for the organization of city system. It is also required to adjust and control regional
spatial planning by constructing regional transport network so as to guide the reasonable
development and utilization of land resources.
To emphasize the construction of inter-city rail transport system so as to achieve a
public inter-city traffic system and to promote regional prosperity;
To focus on the connection of and work division between high-speed and ordinary
transport lines;
To give priority to public traffic and pedestrian, to develop subway or light rail when
therere proper conditions, to stop car wave and the chaos of extension with public transportoriented transport system;
It is required to define the work division and cooperation between two leading hubs in Beijing and
Tianjin so as to realize the change from a regional transport network featuring unitary center and
radiating in influence to a network with dual centers and in the form of network.
To emphasize the construction of transport hubs so as to achieve a new pattern featuring
two supplementary leading hubs (instead of a leading hub and a supplementary hub) with distinct
work division and close cooperation; to reinforce the function of Tianjin as a hub so as to
reasonably share the business of Beijing hub;
To construct a group of secondary transport hubs or regional transport centers in areas
surrounding Beijing and Tianjin: Tangshan, Baoding, Qinhuangdao, Chengde, Zhangjiakou,
Cangzhou, Huanghua, and Caofeidian;
To construct five high-speed transport lines and trunk lines with big capacity to join
together the main cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the area with other areas in the country
and with other countries as well;
To achieve the separation between passage and cargo transport and a modern railway
network with high efficiency by constructing high-speed railway lines and increasing the speed of
existing railway lines;
roads
To construct developed road network composed of high-speed road and trunk national
At the same time, it is required to reinforce the organic connection between transport and
43
communication hubs including aviation ports, sea ports and information ports and regional and
inter-city modern comprehensive transport network. It is also required to plan and reserve
sufficient development land areas for the construction of international hub airport and to reinforce
cooperation and reasonable work division between coastal ports so as to achieve an efficient port
system.
Source: the Second Report on the Rural and Urban Spatial Development Planning Study for the Capital Region
44
It is required to plan city groups in the form of grape cluster along traffic axis and in
appropriate areas that are linked to each other so as to gradually construct an urban corridor in
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and to reserve land resource for future development. The planning of
the development of regional center makes it possible for local people to enjoy the convenience of
both rural and urban areas, to protect natural forms of hills, wetland, and areas along rivers as well
as natural resources, and to preserve both natural views and places for recreation. Such new
functions of city such as high-tech industrial park shall be planned in proper places; the city
corridor with transport axis in the form of grape cluster shall be merged into the regional
ecological environment so as to achieve a new and sustainable form of regional human settlements
on the basis of a favorable ecological environment.
4.4 Conclusion
This chapter explores in depth the basic rules and pattern for the sustainable development of urban
agglomeration and transport system during the process of rapid urbanization at regional level,
concluding that a reasonable organization and planning of urban agglomeration space can be
achieved by constructing high-speed trunk lines focusing on public traffic means, that the function
of leading and promoting of modern high-speed transport infrastructure shall be emphasized,
including the development of rail traffic and high-speed public transport means, so as to achieve
relatively compact space, to realize intensive extension as well as the sustainable regional
transport development. Last but not the least, the case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area
analyzes the existing problems concerning the urban agglomeration and transport system
development, proposing specific strategy and advice on how to achieve a reasonable regional
structure and sustainable transport development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area.
References
[1] Wu Liangyong, 2002, Research on the Rual and Urban Spatial Development planning for the
Greater Beijing Region (Beijing, Tianjing and Heibei) , Tsinghua University Press.
[2] Wu Liangyong, 2006, The Second research on the Rual and Urban Spatial Development
planning for the Greater Beijing Region (Beijing, Tianjing and Heibei) , Tsinghua University
Press.
45
46
requirements of national urban system planning, so as to carry out regional development policies,
by proposing provincial urbanization strategy, urban spatial structure at provincial level, proposing
requirements on the development of leading cities in the province in such fields of transport,
human culture, important infrastructure, ecological environmental protection, resource
development and utilization, and historical and cultural heritage;
(3) Municipal urban system planning: an important part of overall urban planning, including
following important content: to propose integrated urban and rural development strategy; to decide
on comprehensive goals and protection requirements on ecological environment, land and water
resources, energies, natural and historical and cultural heritage protection; to propose principles on
spatial administration; to predict on total urban population and urbanization rate so as to decide on
urban population size, functional work division, spatial arrangement plan and construction
standards; to basically decide on urban mobility development strategy.
47
system, to clarify the planning of city trunk road system network, city rail transport network, and
transport hubs.
The exploration of the relationship between land use and transport system forms an important
part of current urban planning in China, and it mainly involves in the relationship between urban
morphology and transport means, the relationship between city land development modes and
transport system, the combination of urban planning and transport system planning, and the
evaluation of development strategy. The strategic decision shall be made based on comprehensive
researches about the choice of land use and transport models in big cities and mega cities.
Current planning on rapid growth in China is similar to that in western countries in 1960s in
the sense that we know human factors including social and economic ones are important, yet the
knowledge hasnt been applied in theories, models, and actual researches; transport system
planning hasnt been combined with land use planning, and the focus is still attached to the
construction of road facilities so as to meet the rapid growth of automobile fleets; and the
administration and research on transport demand shall be further reinforced. In near future, the
researches made in the field of transport shall focus on localized theories and models, the
reasonable and scientific planning, management, decision-making, as well as multi-disciplinary
cross research methods.
48
personal trip survey, analyzed the characteristics of urban travel behavior and drew transportation
plans in a quantitative way.
(2) From mid 1980s to early 1990s, as the Reform and Opening up process speeded up, cities
in China saw an exciting period of infrastructure construction aiming to tackle the urban
transportation problems. Coming to the transportation planning, the famous four-step travel
demand forecasting model was involved into the travel behavior analysis, based on the personal
trip survey. It is the very beginning that qualitative analysis and quantitative computation were
combined with each other.
49
(4) Since the year 2000, the smooth traffic project has been put into action by Ministry of
Public Security and Ministry of Construction. The development indicators of urban transportation
system were built to evaluate the performance level of transportation system in major cities of
China. This project promoted the depth and width of transportation planning and management in a
scientific and modernized way.
The professionals and planners concluded from the experiences of research and planning that
urban transportation planning should combine both the qualitative and quantitative approaches and
coordinate with the travel demand and future guidance.
50
51
52
53
54
boundaries, building height, building surface, etc. which are fixed by urban planning, are fully
respected, while Beijing Municipal Construction Committee pays more to verifying whether the
construction quality is high enough to reach the norms, and the authorities concerned including
those of fire protection, civil air defense, landscape and forestry, environmental protection and
earthquake pay more to verifying whether the construction measures up the respective
requirements. However, after that the construction is put into use, no authority is in charge of
supervising its actual utilization to make sure that the buildings and the sites would be in the
assigned utilization. That is why in reality, there emerges often the phenomenon that the planned
transportation buildings or sites are partly or completely transformed into other uses, shifting a
certain number of traffic to the surrounding areas, which finally leads to the unbalanced
development of land-use and transportation.
55
56
infrastructure
Even though the transportation infrastructure construction usually has limited economic yield in
itself, it can, through improving the transportation conditions, promote the increase in value of the
lands along or surrounding the transportation infrastructure, thus bringing huge benefits to the real
estate developments concerned. In principle, the benefit increment of real estate development
brought about by transportation infrastructure construction should be partially returned to the
investor of the infrastructure, for either making up the huge cost for or enriching the financial
source of the construction, so as to form a sound circle of investment in transportation
infrastructure construction. Yet till now, as there is no complete tax and toll system regarding the
benefit increment of real estate development, the phenomenon of unreasonable distribution of the
benefit increment of real estate development brought about by transportation infrastructure
construction is quite usual, with most of it being exclusively possessed by the real estate
developers or the proprietors of the lands along or surrounding the transportation infrastructure,
which in a certain sense increases the governments burden of the investment in transportation
infrastructure construction.
57
municipal government being in charge of the construction of the civil expressways and trunkroads within the city proper and that of the freeways and first-class highways within in the
municipal territory, while the district governments being in charge of the construction of the civil
sub-trunk-roads and branch-roads, as well as the second-, third- and fourth-class highways within
in the respective territories. Within the limits of the respective functions and powers, the
government of different levels has the authority of programming the assigned road construction in
accordance with the actual situations of the locality, the political ambitions of its own and the
planning regulations concerned, and then, after the comprehensive assignment of Beijing
Municipal Committee of Communications and the examination and approval of the governmental
departments concerned, consigning the constructions to different constructors for substantial
implementation. Even though Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications can make
necessary adjustments in an all-around way regarding the road construction programs put forward
by different governments, this multilateral mechanism of investment and implementation of road
construction considerably inhibits the networking process of road system in both time and space
dimensions, which brings about the negative influences on the functional performance of the road
system. For instance, due to the different level of economic development in different localities, the
governments of different levels and different districts are quite different from each other in terms
of the capacity of investment in road construction. Generally speaking, the municipal government
is obviously stronger than the district governments, while the district government of developed
areas much stronger than that of under-developed areas. This can be clearly seen from the facts of
road construction in Beijing that the development of superior-level roads is more advanced than
that of inferior-roads and the road construction of developed areas is more advanced that that of
under-developed areas. However, the advanced development of superior-level roads or that of the
local road system of developed areas can not lead to the efficient performance of the road system
as a whole; while in contrary, the laggard development of inferior-level roads or that of the local
road system of under-developed areas can badly damage the efficient performance of the road
system as a whole.
58
59
of land-use and transportation through guiding and controlling the land supply market. Moreover
at present, the land supply in Beijing is in the stage of buyers market. Facing the great demand
and the insufficient supply at the same time, the organizations in charge of land consolidation,
rehabilitation and reserve can only do the land purchases passively rather than positively, without
necessary analysis on the conditions of location and transportation of the lands. That is why the
lands put into the market for real estate development are quite scattered in terms of location and no
due consideration is made on the construction of transportation infrastructures, in particular the
influences of track transport construction on real estate development.
Notes:
Special acknowledgement is made here to the program of Balanced Development between Land-use and
Transportation in Beijing of Beijing Institute of Urban Planning & Design and the joint program between Tsinghua
University and British Petrol on Sustainable Urban Mobility for the financial supports to the study. This part has
been published in Chinese in City Planning Review, No. 3, March 2008, and in English in China City Planning
Review, No. 3, September 2008.
60
Table 5.1 Key governmental departments and their key duties concerning balanced development of land-use and transportation: case of Beijing
Authority
Function
Organization
Beijing Municipal
Commission of Development
& Reform
renovation
Drafting the annual investment programs for
Investment
administration
Commission of Urban
Planning
planning
Planning
administration
61
Commission of Urban
terms
Planning
Beijing Municipal Bureau of
construction land
Approving the transformations of collective-owned
land to construction land
Examining and approving the transfer of the real
estate projects which get the utilization right of stateowned lands via free transfer
Verifying the land utilization of foreign investment
enterprises
Primarily examining the land utilization of
construction projects
administration
Center
62
transportation infrastructures
Transportation
Beijing Transportation
administration
Management Bureau
63
projects
Beijing Comprehensive
Development Office
housing
64
Step
Examination
Administrator
1
and approval
Administration items
Checking and ratifying the
transportation influence evaluation
before
construction
Reform
investment
governmental investment
Verifying or recording when there is no
governmental investment
The authority belongs to National Development
& Reform Commission when dealing with the
construction projects of rail transport
In collaboration with Beijing Comprehensive
Development Office when dealing with the
construction projects for real estate trade
Notes
65
Security Bureau
7
Beijing Road Administration Bureau
66
Check and
acceptance
after
construction
Security Bureau
Beijing Municipal Civil Air Defense Office
Beijing Municipal Bureau of Landscape & Forestry
Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau
Beijing Municipal Earthquake Bureau
Note: The construction projects mentioned here include those of both civil buildings and transportation infrastructures.
67
5.4.6 Proposal
for
Improving
the
Implementation
and
Administration Mechanism of Balanced Development of Land
Use and Transportation in Beijing
It can be seen from the above analysis that the balanced development of land-use and
transportation is a complicated synthetic issue which involves almost all the aspects of land-use
development and transportation construction. Any change in any aspect would bring about the
consequent changes in the other aspects, and finally affect the balanced development between
land-use and transportation. Even though during the specific period of rapid urban construction
and development, the emergence of the unbalanced development between land-use and
transportation is somewhat inevitable, the actual defects of urban governance, implementation
tactic and planning technique exacerbate the conflict. Therefore due efforts should be made, in
hope of establishing the effective mechanism in favor of the balanced development of land-use
and transportation, to set up the goal of balanced development of land-use and transportation and
then systematically reform the urban governance, the implementation tactics and the planning
techniques with regard to the actual defects and problems and with reference to the successful
experience of both domestic and abroad cities.
68
the completed construction projects in line with the terms of urban planning, construction and
other aspects concerned, the supervision and inspection system on the long-term utilization of the
completed construction projects and the land use should be established, so as to reinforce the
administration on the utilization of the completed land development projects to make up the
possible leaks of the current urban administration of Beijing.
(5) Reorganizing the administrative departments in view of long-term development. On the
one hand, the urban administration of Beijing should be transformed from mono-department-based
to multi-department-based and from unilateral to comprehensive. While on the other hand, the
current organization and functions of administrative departments of Beijing should be adjusted
and integrated in line with the demand of balanced development of land use and transportation.
Moreover, the organization and the policies of administrative departments of Beijing should
maintain stable for long term.
69
construction to the master city plan which has legal binding forces; secondly, to add the contents
of detailed operational planning for the purpose of regulating the actual construction and
implementation to the existing compilation system of urban planning which is mostly composed
of master city planning and detailed regulatory planning; thirdly, taking transport planning as an
indispensable part of master city planning, to compile in a unified way the plan for transportation
development and that for public transport development.
(2) Implementing and improving the institution of multi-layered traffic impact evaluation.
For that, the analysis technologies shall be optimized and the technical team shall be reinforced, so
as to improve the timely effectiveness of the evaluation. Meanwhile, the charge over the traffic
impact evaluation shall be adjusted, being transformed from uniquely covered by the project
developer to commonly shared by the project developer and the municipal government, so as to
reduce the cost burden of the project developer caused by the implementation of the evaluation, as
well as the consequent negative attitude to the evaluation.
70
71
process.
Environmental psychology believes that people are always interested in perceptible space, especially those
functional unites existing in visible space scope, and they will tend to move along the visible space till they enter
next visible street space, which produces social movement of people flow through the direction of material space
of streets. This is how social movement function and functional space is created (such as shopping mall, square,
market, and church).
2
Movement economy is a concept derived from natural movement, a distribution of movement decided by the
spatial form structure of a city.
72
than 850 years. What makes Beijing distinctive among the world cities are its dual characteristics
of traditional grace and modern charm. On the one hand, it is the center of political, historical and
cultural activities and the central node of international connections with an urban population of
more than 15 million. On the other hand, it is a famous ancient capital in the world, and abundant
in traditional heritage. As one of the metropolises in China, Beijings urban character and function
have significant effects on urban spatial evolution, which makes the development pattern of
Beijing differ from other Chinese cities to some extent.
Under the background of wide discussion and prediction about Beijings development, this
paper will aim to understand the change of urban form of Beijing city during its evolution from a
spatial network perspective, and further analyze the gradual development mode of urban
functions. The subject has been partly inspired by recent concerns for reconsidering Beijings
evolutive process and its principles of development raised by the fast expansion of urban space in
recent decades. Those concerns involve calling for the architectural profession to elaborate on the
physical development of the city, taking into account the underlying cultural pattern of its territory,
paying attention to the protection of its historical and cultural inheritance and the transition of its
functional entities from a global view.
Within the spatial layout of a city, the city centre is quite essential for urban functional model,
but possibly the most difficult to understand due to various building forms and miscellaneous
functions of a city centre. Therefore, another aim of the paper is to investigate whether the
functional convergence of city centers directly relates to their spatial configuration.
Based on previous practices under the framework of space syntax theory, quantitative
analysis and comparative research are integrated in the research. Space syntax is just such a space
language to describe urban form and structure in a quantitative way and to help interpret the
essence and functions of buildings and cities space. Syntactic analysis has proved to be a valid
tool to understand urban layout, which influences the evolution of land use and activity patterns of
a city through their effects on movement flows. The advantage of the method chosen is that they
make it possible to reveal the functionality of urban system systematically and objectively only by
analyzing urban spatial structure.
73
Mean
local
Mean
Depth
Rn
Mean Depth
Mean Conn
R3
integrati
on
1981
1.293
1.779
8.165
2.531
3.218
1993(old city)
1.297
1.772
7.907
2.535
3.185
1993
1.171
1.711
9.094
2.509
3.085
2003
1.098
1.728
9.269
2.418
3.027
The axial model of 1982 appears to be griddy and displays very clear urban venation
(Figure 5.2). The primary configuration of Beijing is formed by the east-west axis and the southnorth axis both of which begin from the Forbidden City. Urban structure is endowed with rigorous
geometrical form, and the former main south-north axis divided symmetrically the city into two
parts. That is to say, the spatial properties and its expression of the historic monarchic city are
imprinted continually in the urban space of Beijing. The fabric of traditional Hutong is showed
legibly on the axial map 1982. As a particular identity of Beijing city, Hutong space contributes to
74
create a fine grained, well connected, and diverse urban fabric for the traditional neighborhoods of
Beijing. Most of Hutongs concentrate relatively in the north of the Forbidden City within the inner
city (old city). The perpendicular intersection of urban spatial order terminates at the Hutong area,
and the regular road network is decomposed into the labyrinthic bystreets. From the axial map, the
fabric of Beijing presents a kind of dualism, on the one hand there are clear urban axes and the
main street network (the light axes in the map), on the other hand there are anfractuous microstructure in the residential area (the dark axes in the map). From the point of view of urban
transportation, the city lacked of urban trunk roads in the west-to-eastern direction through the
city. The close courtyard of the Forbidden City segments the street system to some extent and
influences the integrity of the street system. Furthermore, the spatial difference between the
northern part and the southern part of the city is displayed explicitly on the axial map. The degree
of integrity of the northern city is higher than that of the southern city, but the intelligibility and
cooperativity in the local space of the northern part is worsen than that of the southern part.
The radius_n integration analysis of Beijing in 1982, shown in Figure 5.3, has suggested that
its inner city is the expansion of the radius_n integration core. The axial map comprises many
short lines ending at other lines, which is found both locally and globally. The radius_n integrators
highlighted are not only the dominant integrators, but almost the longest lines. For example,
Changan street, is located in the middle of the city and transverses the whole city.
Wangfujing street
Xidan street
Forbidden City
Changan street
Qianmen street
Figure 5.12: The Axial Map in 1982 Showing Global Integration Pattern
75
76
77
southern and northern parts of the urban system. It is suggested that the spatial pattern of Beijings
historical core of was hold and further the basic framework of the old city was preserved and
continued. The analysis map also demonstrates such a trend of the change in both morphological
and configurational measures that morphological simplification results in a incremental process
rather than sudden changes. As to micro-structure, the spatial transformation of the old city in
Beijing, weakens not only the hierarchy of traditional space elements, but makes them
considerably more secluded in the whole spatial system. Especially, Hutong fabrics in the
historical core was seriously destroyed, and the spatial extent was enlarged much greatly than
before. In the whole city space, many small circular roads located between the central radiate
streets and the main ring roads (the third and the fourth ring roads) have enriched the city
structure. Some of the main ring roads have evolved into the new axes of Beijing city. However,
what seems to be interesting regarding the contemporary settlements is that the living centre of
the urban settlement remains within the old city, the historic core of the city, which comprises
more short axial lines intersecting obliquely than the outside grid does. Other long and strong
axes, such as Changan Street with its prolonged line and Xidan Street with its prolonged line etc,
connect the old city and the new settlement areas. The most intuitive geometric differences
explained by the characteristics also lead to different syntactic values, which reflect the degree of
strong or weak relations of all parts in the urban system. The dualism of Beijing citys fabric
demonstrated in the syntactic map continued in 2003. On the one hand, the trunk axes of the
whole city that form the urban basic configuration are of high integration comparatively, and on
the other hand there are some short labyrinth-like axes of low integration in the new settlements. It
is suggested that those new settlements outside the old city have been connected well with the
wide roads around, but the inner structures within them are quite complex.
Figure 5.16 Axial map in 2003(Yang, 2006) showing Global Integration pattern
78
According to space syntax theory, spatial configuration is a reflection of social inputs and
configurational differences between structures resulting in spatial analysis are affected by social
ideology or policy. The spatial decisions of urban network explored in such studies should be
embedded in the logics of understanding and planning city and further city reforms. The
morphological analysis on the central areas of Beijing city reviewed in this paper allowed to
extract many of the features which can summarize the difficulties and compatibility issues
encountered by the old city.
79
Figure 5.17 Land Use Map of Beijing in 1981. The darker (red) area is the
concentration of administrative land uses in the central district
The function pattern of Beijing in 1990 was intensified. Its living centre was still located in
the old city. Those most important buildings, such as administrative buildings, cultural buildings
and banks, were still located on Changan Street along with some commercial buildings and
tourist shops. Changan Street remained to be the main axis that connected the living centre of
the city and was of the historical and political significance. Urban economy developed rapidly by
virtue of the governmental reform at the beginning of 1990s and some commercial streets were
developed along with the economic development. For example, Wangfujing, the traditional street
has been reconstructed successfully which is located in the global integrator of Beijing. Other
important commercial streets, such as Xidan Street and Qianmen Street, have also been developed,
which retain their high integration and significance during urban evolution. What is significant to
the functional pattern of Beijing in the 1990s is the fact that there were still streets along which the
functions related to the centre were developed, despite the tendency became more centralized in
shape due to the intensification of the grid that occurred in and around its centre during its
evolution process.
According to the industrial policy of the market economy at the beginning of 1990s, a
majority of industry has been transferred out of the old city and these central districts of high
integration have been occupied gradually by the third industry which requires favorable area for
their development. For some important national and civil building projects have been positioned in
the northern city, such as Yayun Village located besides the northern third ring, the difference
between the northern and southern part still exists and has a tendency to be intensified. The
integration core of the whole city maintains stabilized comparatively in the 2000s. By comparing
with the axes of global integrator of Beijing in different years, it is found that some main axes are
of high integration all the time which forms the integration core, such as Changan Street,
80
Wangfujing Street and Xidang Street. And they are of the core functions of Beijing city, and they
bear many important functions and social activities (Figure 5.8). The old city has been occupied
by the land use of the third industry including commerce, culture, information industry, which
becomes the dominant function in addition to administration in urban core.
Although the scope of urban space has expanded continuously and the built-up area has gone
beyond the boundary of the central city, the primary urban centre functions are still kept in the
central city. It means that the core functions of the city did not decentralized with the development
of new settlements around the periphery of the old city, but intensified within the extent of the city
center. This resulted in the demands for the development of heavy density and intensity in the
heart of the city, thus led to the spatial exploitation in three-dimensions including the utilization of
urban land use, underground space and space on air. The old city, incorporated into multi-purpose
and multi-functional complexes, has become more complex in spatial three-dimension with the
increase of size and functional diversity. The current development tendency has been shown to be
in conflict with preserving the old city. The function of some main streets with high integration
has been changed because of the movement of urban network during the evolvement. On the one
hand, the scale of the centre function is beginning to expand from the old city to the third ring, and
on the other hand, some streets of global integrator are strengthened or weakened. An example is
the Longfusi Street, whose declining process has to be understood in a large context. Instead,
Wangfujing Street has occupied far more strategic location, which is one topological step from
Changan Street, and become a flourishing commercial center with a combination of multiple
networks including metro system. Along with some ring and radiate roads being built, the
syntactic map shows that the original tree-structure pattern of integration core has turned gradually
into the wheel pattern of integration core. It means that these new built roads have evolved into the
main axes of high integration with important functions. And the integration is distributed along the
newly constructed arteries either hosting representative functions or encircling micro-districts,
breaking the organically evolved shape of a deformed wheel described by Hiller (2001).
Furthermore, similar to other socialist plans for sub-areas, the new development areas in the
city, containing administrative buildings and other facilities for recreation, education, health and
commerce, are more segregated and less possible to function as a generator of local movement
economy, which goes against planners initial intentions. With a global view to look at land use
pattern in urban space, the distribution of land use is strongly related to the pattern of integration
in Beijing. The map of the standard land price for commerce shows that the highest land price is
located in the Changan Street, Wangfujing and Xidan Street, which are all within the integration
core. There is a tendency that land price falls from urban center to urban periphery in accordance
with the representation of the syntactic theory. The relation between spatial structure and land use
could be explained by the role of movement patterns generated by the morphology of the urban
grid.
81
Figure 5.18 Land Use Map of Beijing in 2003. The darker (red) area is the
concentration of administrative and commercial land uses.
It is worth mentioned that the development of the old city in Beijing becomes one substantial
part of the settlements of the whole city. Its significance in term of the functions of the whole city
can be traced to its history, the interrelationship and the intensification of urban grid, which have
happened during the last decades. Beijing has expanded greatly during the 20th century. The
morphology of the grid of the old city is clearly different from that of the new part of the city. The
historical core is connected to the new city through the ring roads and radiate roads which have
been constructed in recent years. In conclusion, the study suggests that it is the citys size, density,
and its connections to the new city that cause the historical core in Beijing to function as a city
within a city. During the urban evolution, there are also other characteristics in the old city,
which substantiate the influences of spatial structure on the fate of historic cores. Retail activity,
for instance, shows a strong dependence on the integration value of urban spaces. Therefore, when
the traditional structure is preserved, the important traditional spaces remain economically viable.
But when the old structure is destroyed, the preservable spaces may lose their economic
significance and consequently, lose their viability to be productive.
In Beijing, as mentioned earlier, in further development and the newly opened street revealed
as the most integrated space by the axial analysis were occupied by administrations, commerce,
banking sectors and public spaces, proposing that as an active space, which is similar with the
study in most cities in the world. Such a hypothesis could be further analyzed if more old land use
maps could be constructed according to written evidence, which was not possible within the time
frame of this paper. And if proven correct support the proposal that, the old city grew maximizing
the spatial conditions for the functioning of the productive area of the city, using space properly.
82
settlements. The syntactic analysis of Beijing in several years showed that its old city has retained
its significance as a focal point of the city. The grid inside the inner city is part of the extensive
integration core of the whole city. Having been built around the old city, the ring roads have been
evolved gradually as important axes of the whole city. As some scholars have pointed out in the
studies of other cities, the change of Beijing is not only in the morphological shape but also in the
spatial significance of the parts of the city to the rest of it, a phenomenon of urban evisceration,
the integration cores having to rely on trans-spatial means of attraction. Syntactic measures have
additionally concurred to the diagnosis of un-intelligibility of the city centre and of the city as a
whole. During the evolution of Beijing, the old city is becoming more intelligible to strangers,
whereas the whole city is becoming more unintelligible. Spatial patterns have been suggestive for
the functional patterns. The function pattern of Beijing during the decades from the 1980s to the
2000s describes the old city as the place where the urban buzz is located. Unlike other historical
cities, Beijing retains its historical core as its main functional core, and also its living center.
Though the development of Beijing has been influenced by socialistic governmental policy in
China, the functional core that is still associated strongly with natural movement was described by
the integration analysis of Beijing during its evolvement. This true-to life spatial pattern seems to
have been very suggestive for the functional and current movement patterns of the city.
The study in this paper shows that if in an organically development city spatial configuration
had the essential role of providing a necessary basis for the functioning of the city as an
economically sustainable centre, socialist modernization and urbanization caused a power
relationship between centre and servant local structures, where the ideology is the force that
overcomes space as generator of social interface. In light of the present study and in the context of
previous known concerns as the competition launched having as a subject the development of the
city centre, it could be stated that the citys structure needs to and could be improved and
particularly, local strategies may be developed to support the global supergrid structure. According
to the studied cases regarding the centrality of the new canters it was conclude by Jiang and
Peponis (2005) that a logic of evolution applied equally to planned centrality and emergent district
centrality, includes further fragmentation of the system. For Beijing, the study is worth of being
referenced for building multi-centre in urban space. It also could be concluded that a finer scale of
the grid closer to the neighboring central structure might be beneficial.
With the growing concerns about the sustainability of urban environments in an urbanizing
world for Beijing, the conservation for the old city is another very important problem. Space
syntax has been presented as a new approach to the concept of urban conservation by prioritizing
the issue of urban context and spatial transformation. Urban conservation in recent decades has
been more attracted toward dynamic conservation which aims to preserve the physical
characteristics of the old cores as the focal point of history, polity and culture in the modern cities
as well as the centre for creating life, activity and social-economic viability. Thus conservation is
not only about the individual building and places and it is more about the relationship between the
spatial components of urban system. The essence of these relationships, the spatial spirit is an
invisible power which controls the organization and utility of the historic core (Karimi, 1999). For
the development of Beijing in the future, a very important step is protecting the unique spatial
system of the old city, or the spatial spirit, which creates the relationship among the component
and functions of the urban system. The important lesson from history is that before engaging in
83
any detailed process of conservation, a basic knowledge of the spatial harmony between the past
and present is needed, otherwise the past loses it logic, and consequently its viability to be
conserved, or the new cannot find its appropriate place to function.
d x d 0e bx
In the above formula, dx refers to the population density in the place x away from the downtown
area, d0 refers to the population density in downtown area, x refers to the distance away from the
downtown area, b is constant. In general, the bigger b is, population density is higher in downtown
area, and population density reduces greatly along the increase of distance. b is lower, indicating
that the population density in downtown area is low, people tend to be distributed away from the
downtown area and population distribution becomes more even. With the passing of time and the
increase of urban population size, b will gradually drop.
84
d x d 0e cx
In the formula, c is constant, and the meaning of other signs is the same as the model proposed by
Clark.
At the same time, Smeed proposed another exponential function model with following
mathematic formula:
d x kx a
In the formula, k is scale coefficient, and a is the parameter of distance. Smeed Model doesnt
define the population density in downtown area and is more suitable for describing the population
density and distribution rules in urban fringe and hinterland areas.
Newlings Quadric Exponential Model
With the development of cities, the phenomenon of population suburbanization becomes
increasingly prominent, and population distribution pattern also changes, with the point mostly
densely populated moving away from the downtown area, where theres a population density gap.
In 1969, Newling and some scholars proposed to replace the linear variable in Clark Model with
quadratic curve and proposed so-called Quadric Exponential Model, whose formula is as follows:
d x d 0ebx cx
b and c are constants, and the meaning of other signs is the same as the model proposed by Clark
and Sherratt. Its obvious that Newling tried to integrate the models of both Clark and Sherratt, for
when c=0 and b<0, its Clark Model; when b=0 and c>0, its Sherratt Model.
85
86
87
Figure 5.22 Spatial Distribution Model of Location, Rend and Land Use
(3) Social Physics Model
This types of city models are based on the physics models of Newtonian mechanics, among
which the most outstanding one is spatial interaction model, including spatial scattering model,
declining rules by distance, gravity model, and potential model. Gravity model introduces the
88
theory of gravity by Newton to measure the degree of interaction between two cities; while
potential model introduces Newtons formula on potential energy to conclude on the probability or
opportunity of inter-city interaction. Lowry proposed in 1964 the Pittsburgh Model, which is a big
breakthrough in the research of urban spatial structure, for it uses a simple method to describe the
relationship among main social and economic activities, city primary industries, housing, service
sector, and transport. R A Grain and Wilson introduced the economics concepts into Lowry Model
in 1966 and 1971 respectively; they rewrote Lowry Model and Lowry-Grain Model remains to be
one of the most extensively used city model till this day.
1 Df
dimension is a Df 1 (Figure 5.13). Chinese scholar Duan Jin used the fractal model to study
Shanghai-Nanjing city cluster, concluding on a series of constructed area size and corresponding
town size series. Other scholars also used fractal theory to study the distribution of transport
89
Source: http://www.iemar.tuwien.ac.at/modul23/Fractals/subpages/62Cityplanning.html
Figure 5.23 City Growth DLA Model and Cardiff City Area Border
(3) Cellular automata and multi-agent systems
Cellular Automata (CA) is a dynamic system evolved on diffused time dimension in the cell
space composed of diffusion-limited state cells according to certain partial rules. Four basic
elements of CA are diffused cells, states, neighbor, and rules. In its nature, CA model is more like
a framework constructing a model instead of a specific simulated model, and its top advantage is
that, by defining partial cell neighbor relationship and use relatively simple conversion rules
functioning on elementary cell neighbor, can simulate and represent dynamic time and space
changes of complicated phenomena in the entire system without resorting to complicated
differential equation or partial differential equation. Its easy to use standard CA to represent city
systems, while CA model has strong calculation capacity in solving complicated issues, with time
and space separation characteristics, parallel calculation features, openness, and flexibility, which
supports its extensive application on the research of city growth, diffusion and land use evolution
simulation (Figure 5.14).
In multi-agent systems or agent-based models, agent represents a real or abstract entity,
which interacts with each other, and with environment, multiple agents can coexist in one
environment, and each agent will move around actively and independently. Their activities are the
results of self perception, deduction, decision-making, and of interaction with other agents and
environment. To build a model with agent can simulate the social, economic, and spatial behavior
of individual decision maker with heterogeneity so as to express the overall features of city space
structure, such as population density, size, spatial gathering of enterprises. Multi-agent systems
reflect micro-scope structural features and individual activities of a city, which are the reasons
resulting in such complicated features of city dynamic, self-organization, and sharp changes.
90
Source: http://www.geosimulation.org/geosim/cellular_automata.htm
Figure 5.24 CA Simulates Chicago Area Expanding in 1850, 1950, and 2000
The creation and development of different city models have different social, economic, and
technological background, and their application have different significance too. The construction
of city model cant accurately predict all problems during the evolution of a city, and their main
function is to have a better understanding on different factors contributing to urban growth and the
mechanism of their function, so that the decision made on city planning and development can have
a better foundation, be more transparent and more logical.
91
To promote the harmonious development of urban mobility and land use is of important
significance to provide ultimate solution to urban mobility and to promote urban growth.
92
capacity. Another problem that should be avoided is that the excess use of land resources in
downtown area will make it impossible to solve urban mobility issues. Therefore, there should be
an analysis and evaluation system on the traffic impact of land use and development projects in
planning process.
(4) To promote the development and use of public transport system through a
reasonable land use
From the perspective of sustainable development, cities usually focus on the control of
private traffic and development of public transport means. The reasonable use of land resource
will greatly promote the development of public transport; the compact use of land resource will
also contribute to the development of public transport. Through a scientific and reasonable
planning, it is possible for population to work and live in relatively concentrated areas, which will
improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public transport means. Moreover, different intensities
of land use will directly affect the choice of public transport means, and high intensity of land use
will contribute to the development of high-speed, large-capacity, and top-service rail transport
system.
(5) To affect the general pattern and intensity of land use through the changes of
transport system
The choice of leading transport means will affect the land use pattern and intensity, which
will finally decide the form of urbanization. City structure, city size and expansion, city life style
and characteristics, all these are closely related to the property of urban mobility system and
service quality. The following are four choices of urban mobility system development models:
Model 1: To construct a passenger transport network framework composed of multiple types
of rail transport means, high-speed trunk lines, and comprehensive passenger hubs, complemented
by different levels of public transport means, to effectively control the private car fleet, managing
to achieve a high-speed, high-density, high-efficient, top-quality transport system;
Model 2: To focus on city rail traffic, on road public transport means, to encourage the use of
bicycle to cover short distance, to restrict the use of car, so as to achieve a diverse transport
system;
Model 3: To focus on road public transport means, to plan public transport trunk lines for
directions featuring dense passenger load, to encourage the use of bicycle to cover short distance,
to restrict the use of cars, so as to achieve a highly adaptive and flexible transport system;
Model 4: To achieve a harmonious mobility development with diverse road public transport
means and different types of individual transport means.
Most problems of urban mobility cant be solved by solely depending on mobility planning
and shall be combined with city planning so as to find a final solution on the basis of reasonable
land use. Reasonable urban planning shall combine land use planning, mobility planning and
environment planning. Only combining policies of mobility, land use and environment can result
in the sustainable urban mobility growth.
93
5.8 Application
of
Planning
Information
System
for a
94
the information system not only focus on the basic data management functions including the
inquiry of spatial data, but also focus on the different spatial analysis functions including overlay
analysis, route analysis, and network analysis.
User Interface
Software System
Application Model
DBMS
Spatial Database Management
System
Hardware System
95
Storage
System
CD-DVD
Process
System
Desktop
Output
System
Plotter
Scanner
Disk Cell
WorkStation
Printer
Image Decod
er
Disk Unit
Unit Compute
r
Projector
96
the latter is mainly dedicated to the uniform management of data, including inquiry, searching,
adding and deleting, revising and maintaining. The communication between planning information
system database and its core software GIS is integrated by spatial database engine (SDE).
Urban Mobility and Land Use Database for Sustainable Mobility
Urban SDI
GIS Vecto
r Databas
e
RS
Raster
Databas
e
Urban Mobility
Social/
Economic
Database
Streets
Database
Transport
Database
Urban Land-Use
Building
Database
Land-Use
Database
Figure 5.27 Data Flow of Planning Information System for a Harmonious Urban
Mobility and Land Use
97
Application Operation
Issue to be Solved
Multi-Source Data
Definition
Breakdown/Relation
Build Database
Data Input/Conversion
Nature of Issue
Proof/Data/Assumption
Concept
Concept/Factor/Method
Seeking Solution
Model/Analysis
Solution Data
Data Source/Data Set
Solution
Verify/Explain/Express
Issue Definition
Figure 5.28 Basic Flow of Planning Information System for Harmonious Urban
Mobility and Land Use
98
5.9 Conclusion
Since to coordinate urban planning and urban mobility is a big topic, this article involves a large
amount of contents. Firstly, the article systematically summarizes the successful experience
obtained by developed western countries in the setting up of policies and regulations, the
construction of management mechanism, and the coordination of implementation strategy, on the
basis of which to further analyze current management procedures in Beijing, the relations among
different administrations and their impact, as well as the actual effect of main implementation
methods concerning land development and transport construction, proposing feasible suggestions
on the improvement of city management and implementation strategy, the improvement of
planning technologies and the construction of a complete legislation. Then the article studies the
comprehensive theories and methods on the coordination of city spatial development, involving
spatial information technology and methods and space syntax analysis theories. An empirical
space syntax research is conducted on a harmonious development of urban mobility and land use
on the basis of Beijing spatial information system, trying to explore and reveal the relationship
between city spatial structure (transport network) and function (land use) at the level of integrated
city spatial form and to integrate urban mobility with land use, concluding that syntax theories
effectively reveal the relationship between city form and city function distribution and changes,
providing a feasible exploration on integrating transport planning and land use planning. And then
the article systematically explains different analysis models on harmonious urban spatial
development, such as city population analysis model, city structure analysis model, and city
expansion analysis model, trying to have a profound understanding on all factors contributing to
the harmonious urban development from the perspective of models as well as to have a better
understanding of functioning mechanism. The study is followed by an empirical research of
population growth in Beijing. The article also explores GIS-based planning information system
and its application according to the demand of sustainable urban mobility and land use
development, focusing on the system structure, requirements on functions, module composition,
and types of data. Then it takes the sustainable urban mobility and harmonious land use
development in Greater Beijing Area as an example to explain the construction of planning
information system database and its actual application. At last, the article proposes the
development strategy and planning methods on how to achieve sustainable urban mobility and
harmonious development of land use.
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102
Unlike spatial development pattern above ground, the exploitations of underground space use
proper techniques to excavate urban subsurface soil or rock for multi-floor use of this land but
without any disturbance to the former existed ground space, so that extra spatial expanding and
land value can be created without enlargement of the original land, and the capability and
functions of urban transport can be improved at vertical direction underground. Additionally, this
kind of space exploitation mode can also seal pollution emissions effectively by the isolated space
pattern. The more obvious the urban agglomeration effectiveness and the higher the land pressures
and environmental protection requirement, then the higher effectiveness and potential value of
underground space can be seen so as it has been regarded as a new kind of natural land resources.
(2)Basic urban functions of underground space
Experiences from practical and theoretical study about urban underground space
development and utilization both at home or abroad shows that: urban underground space can be
used for housing, transportation, logistics, business, cultures, production, storage, disaster
prevention and buried and ectalmost every part, function and content of cities can make use of
underground space. Among these using and functions, urban underground infrastructure systems
including underground municipal facilities and underground transport system which directly
served for transit of people and goods, and the mobile underground public space including
commercial, cultural, services, recreation, pedestrian and other space, is the most important and
most active part of urban underground space use.
Source:[19] Qingdao Urban Planning Design and Research Institute; Department of civil engineering, THU
2005. Qingdao Urban Underground Space Planning Manual
103
improve traffic capacity, but also control emissions of greenhouse gas, noise and polluted air from
vehicles.
(3)Transformation of feasible urban functions into underground can avoid massive
dismantling and building of ground space so that to reduce environmental impact on ground, such
as decreasing ground-building density, expanding open and green space, improving urban
ecosystem and protecting urban historical culture and landscape.
Adopted from TONG Linxu.2005. Underground space and urban modernization. BeijingChina Building
Industry Press
104
post-war recovery.
105
before restoring
restoring period
after restoring
http://www.roadtraffic-technology.com/projects/#Road_Systems
107
help sustainable development of urban transport. In Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major
international cities, trend shows the integration of land use and rail traffic, which will be helpful to
improve the efficiency of urban transportation and land-use.
Beside subway system, underground parking and underground pedestrian road are the most
typical space features of underground transport system. Over last decade, urban underground
motor vehicles systems have also made great development. These features mainly are gathered in
citys centre area as well as historical cultural protection area, residential area and the ecological
and landscape protection area.
In some big cities in European and other cities such as in United States, Canada and Japan,
underground space had been developed to a high level of efficiency, planned and designed
integrate space of ground and underground. Underground space planning starts with special plans,
gradually forms the systematic planning. The subway planning and municipal infrastructure
planning are the most prominent. Some countries where underground space be used earlier and
more fully, e.g., Finland, Sweden, Norway, Japan and Canada, have changed their planning
activity from the local areas to city planning and some system planning.
www.bigdig.com
108
North area and adjacent waterfront and the central area of the Old City, and restricted these areas
to play an integral role in urban economic activities. It was not fully considered when the early
viaducts were built.
(2) Project plans and objectives
In order to restore the vitality of the Boston city center and business environment, alleviate
the congestion of vehicles on Central Artery viaduct, in the 1990s, the Massachusetts Toll Roads
Authority proposed the central tunnel plan (Central Artery / Tunnel Project, CA / T, also known as
the Big dig), which was claimed as the largest project ever in American history. According to the
plan, 6-8 lane underground highway and road system on ground will be built under the viaduct
built in 1950s, and then the viaduct will be demolished.
All projects were completed in the fall of 2006 and put into use. Total cost is 14.7 billion U.S.
dollars, road length is about eight miles, I-93 part from the Roxbury section to Somerville is about
four miles, I-90 part from China Town to East Boston is about four miles, over half of which is
underground tunnel, with the world's largest tunnel ventilation systems and underground traffic
accidents Treatment Centre.
(3) The effectiveness, impact and enlightenment of CA/T project
After the opening of the tunnel, automobile congestion time during peak hours is reduced
from 8-10 hours a day to 2 to 3 hours, basically equivalent to the average level of other cities in
US. It is expected to lower carbon monoxide emissions by 12 percent. The trip volume of the fourlane tunnel leading to the airport (originally two two-lane tunnels) doubles after commercial
operation, the daily trip volume reaches 20 000.
CA / T project releases a large scope of free space on the ground for the urban center,
reproduces open space as the white Paper four hundred years ago, and creates conditions for city
floor space update. In the central area of Boston, over 300 acres landscape open space is restored,
45 small parks and plazas are built, 2 400 trees and 6 000 shrubs are planted, this reshapes the
good relations between the lands and greatly improves the downtown environment, creates the
conditions for the restoration of the Boston waterfront and the city centre's vitality. Whats more
significant is that the underground space development and the improvement of the environment
has hastened the birth of planning and design of many projects in adjacent land and urban
recovery, in the long run affect the entire city centres geography, ecology, environment, landscape
and concentration and direction of commerce and human (Fig. 6.5).
Central tunnel plan (CA / T) not only becomes a more effective traffic hub in Boston, but also
makes people fully understand the great environmental value of the underground works, as well as
their effectiveness in solving a series of complex issues such as urban transport, protection of the
city history, urban renewal, and environment and so on.
109
110
111
underground public space system with pedestrian walking roads beneath streets and buildings as
the main pedestrian traffic mode. This system connects most underground space beneath the
buildings, subways and public space in the city centre, forming the largest scale indoor city
(underground city). Total length of underground pedestrian channels in Montreal reaches 32 km.
112
which is also equipped with ITS system. The third underground floor is laid with subway. In the
extension finished later, the street was connected to the Aichi Museum of Art and the newly
constructed bus station under the platform as underground, and makes the surface activities and
underground space a whole network, which greatly lessens the pressure from the surface traffic
congestion and also provides recreation commercial activities a comfort and safe public space.
Expressway
Car parks
Power tunnel
Power tunnel
Drainage
Power tunnel
Rail
Street
Underground street
12
buildings in the district, the traffic flow in the core area will gradually become saturated, and this
will make a very negative impact to the center green square landscape in planning.
2General concept of the planning
In principles of that people on ground and vehicles underground, underground space was
used to integrate various transport modes external and internal, separate flows of people and
vehicles into different level storey, and make people transfer in the underground space. Namely:
a) Develop overall underground space system, link the public buildings around the core area
of CBD uniformly and effectively, create a vibrant urban living room together with the ground
buildings.
b) Use underground space to integrate road network in which through-traffic will pass by in
underground, and all the motor vehicle traffics in the core area will be organized in underground
too. Ground and sunken squares are for walking space of people.
c) Set entrances around the core area for motor vehicle. Set ramps for public car parks and
bus stations in the underground transport storey, and connect them to the Metro line 3, line 5 and
regional track system for transfer.
(3) The comprehensive transportation planning
a) Pedestrian system: According to the principle separating pedestrians from vehicles, the
pedestrian system is formed as a multi-level walking system in underground, surface and elevated
levels. The elevated walking level connects the main buildings and the subway stations around
core area, and partly serves pedestrians crossing streets. The underground level connects subway
stations, served as the transfer channel between Zhujiang-New-Town Station and regional rail
transit lines. The pedestrian system of the core area consists of 4 sub-systems, i.e. the rapid
conveyance system for commuting people, the connection system between office buildings, the
connection system between subways and regional rail transit, and the sightseeing and visiting
system. Within the systems, pedestrians and vehicles are separated to different levels, and at some
of the intersections, signal system will guide pedestrians to cross the street.
b) Public transit system: One is the Parking planwhich mainly focuses on the underground
garages of buildings and partly on the public parking system. Match garages are advocated to open
to the publics. Connection passages in underground garages are to make up for the insufficient
capacity of branch road and sharing the parking space and facilities. The other is the traffic
organization plan which proposes a one-way circulating system consisting of larger
counterclockwise traffic ring + smaller clockwise traffic ring. The larger one way
counterclockwise cycle will be used by vehicles within the core areas. Five underground U-turns
are designed to reduce the travel distance caused by bypasses and improve the transportation
efficiency. With the larger surface counterclockwise cycle, the core areas are divided into three
smaller traffic cycle systems, i.e. the north ring, the middle ring and the south ring. To strengthen
the connection between Linjiang Ave and Zhujiang Ave (East and West), two roundabouts are
established at the underground layer of Linjiang Ave and Huaxia Road. See Figure 6.9(a)
(4) The General Underground Space Layout
115
The sunken squares and lighting courts brings nature light to the underground buildings and
provides people more safe and comfortable areas which also save energy.
a) The 1st underground floor is the main plane level of the underground space of Zhujiang
New Town. The south part of core area is a parking lot for buses and coaches with VIP lanes, and
private car and taxi stops; Roundabouts and ramps to the garages are located at the north and south
tips of the parking lot ensuring the convenience of entrance and exit for vehicles; The north part of
the core area is also equipped with a parking lot for buses for visitors. The two parking lots are
connected by surrounding underground shops and rail transit stops.
b) The 2nd underground floor is occupied by bus parking lot, facility space and s mass transit
stations, and it is connected to surrounding underground garages.
c) The 3rd underground floor is used by mass transit stations and tunnels and cooling pipe
galleries.
(5) The Expected Results of the Planning
To integrate and optimize the regional transport system with the underground transportation
system is undoubtedly the most effective solution to the traffic congestion in big cities. The
underground transportation system of Zhujiang New Town will be an exemplar for the urban
transportation in China and even in the world. See Figure. 6.9(b).
Huaxia Road
Xiancun Road
Huangpu Avenue
Municiple Squre Station
Jinsui Road
Central squre station
Jinsui Road
Zhujiang New Town
station
Zhujiang New Town
station
Metro Line 5
Huacheng Avenue
Huacheng Avenue
Theater Station
Linjiang avenue
Haixinsha station
Figure 6.37 (a) Plan of underground traffic system of Zhujiang New Town
116
Master plan
Figure 6.9(b) Plan and sight of traffic system of The Zhujiang New Town
6.2.3.2 Main Motive for Urban Underground Space Use: Solve Urban Traffic
Contradictions
The key problem of road traffic congestion is the contradiction between trip volumes, traffic
resources and conditions. The traditional problems such as high density of traffic, low speed,
mixed people and vehicles, cant be solved by widening roads and setting interchange only.
Subways, underground expressway, underground pedestrian roads and underground car parks
should be built and work with the ground rail traffic and parking facilities, so that the large
number of ground vehicles and pedestrians can be separated, and the static and dynamic traffic can
be significantly improved.
13
Adapted on the basis of< Research report of Urban Underground Space Resources Assessment
of Qingdao >,THU,2005
117
For examples, in Paris, the subway networks transit 30 to 40 percent of the citys passengers.
An underground network of highways has been planned and in construction with total length of
nearly 50 km, and its expected that 400 000 of the 2.5 million vehicles running in the city
everyday can go underground in order to ease the ground traffic congestion. Passengers of Tokyos
Shinjuku Station are nearly 300 million a day, 45.7 percent of which walk through the
Underground Street, so that the overcrowding ground is greatly eased. The north crossing of
Osaka Tennoji Station once had serious problems of mixed people and vehicles, 60 000 cars and
130 000 people went through the crossing every hour. After rebuilding, the daily 200 000
passengers walk through Abeno Underground Street, so that the vehicle speed increases and
vehicles are unobstructed; this effect is equivalent to widen the road on the ground.
Its necessary to build subway when one-way trip volume reaches 40 000~60 000 people per
hour, the subway should go through underground in city central areas, and this effect of improving
traffic and environment can not be replaced. When inter-city railways go through the city center,
underground operations are gradually adopted in order to reduce the impact on the surrounding
environment. For example, in the early 20th century when the New Yorks Central Railway
Station was rebuilt, platforms were put into the newly built 1-2 stories of underground space, so as
to create conditions for appreciation of land and improvement of environment around the railway
lines and station area. According to Japans experiences, underground walking streets should be
built when passengers on the ground reach 20 000 per hour. This shows the key effect of
underground space in solving traffic problems.
118
as an example, the part of walking road (about 25 percent of total area) has no economic benefit at
all, but its social benefit to improve urban transportation is significant, and its possible to recover
investment because the walking road part is combined with business facility. In Japans massive
construction of underground street, parking, walking and business functions are always combined
together, business part is about 25 percent of total area, making up for the lack of parking revenue.
According to estimation, it takes about 10 years to recover the investment and gain profit (Tong
Linxu, 2005).
The successful operation of Hong Kong subway is depended on the objectives and scope of
the great social benefit created by the subway. Overall development including subway station and
its domain is a reasonable policy, the social benefits by subway constructions, such as land valueadded, business profits, passenger growth and advertising revenue, are partly returned to
developers and operators of subway, this has protected the sustainable development goals for
subway as a major social public welfare project at traffic aspect.
119
methods of strengthening the transfer and connection between subway and other transportation
mode;
(2)Besides feet bridge, at the pedestrian-vehicle mixed area and the transportation crowded
land sector, underground pedestrian road is the most rational and feasible for spatial organizing,
functional optimizing and subway station integrating with traffic and public space of commercials
and recreations, and so on;
(3) A new developing mode has been found for at vehicle crowded land sector and mixed
traffic area, where underground channels integrate and link the dynamic traffics and local
underground parking. For examples, underground driveway systems in La Defense new town in
Paris, Western Core District of Zhongguancun and Financial Street in Beijing, are all of the typical
representatives for underground transport in worlds big city today.
Secondly, in order to avoid the impediment of inner city mountain massif, water body, main
facilities such as train track and airport, or for protection of current structures, historical cultural
heritage and ecology and landscape environment, the road system usually will be interrupted and
have no space available to pass through at ground surface. Then continuous urban road network
cannot be established completely with hierarchical, connectivity and functional structures. In
irrational road sector and road intersection where transport conditions are limited, capacity of the
road traffic is often restricted to meet the rational demand of increasing traffic volume.
In cases above mentioned, underground road channel for vehicles should be planned in order
to meet the road network demand without changing the ground status of current land. Meanwhile,
the goal and request of conservation of current surface environment will be achieved (shown in
Figure 6.10). The significance of urban history succession and user-friendly urban space has made
it an important and inevitable choice that to expand the urban road underground at downtown area
in mega cities, especially at the backbone area of transport network and integrated streets areas
(see 5.5.3), or at the conservation area of a historic cultural city or scenery garden city.
Source: Geng Yongchang, Zhao Xiaohong "the construction of urban underground space" Harbin: Harbin
Institute of Technology Press, 2001.
Figure 6.38 Technical feasibility of Urban underground space for the road
transport system
120
6.3.1.2 Underground Space: key factor for integrating rail traffic and land use
High convenient and accessibility of transport in subway station areas promotes high passenger
flow, high-strength land use and interaction between land use and traffic, arising huge production
of commercial profits. Development of underground space at station area not only meets the
demand of increasing service space along with the passenger growth of rail transit, but also
provides financial compensation resources for the contrast between huge investment and
insufficient income of rail transit, and rewards its huge social benefits.
For exampletransference between inter subway stations, subways and other traffic modes,
must complete through underground space, which connects every transport facility and public
space by an uninterrupted path without disturbance by ground traffic in the shortest distances and
in most friendly, comfortable and safe environment. Establishment of perfect three-dimensional
exchange system in underground space can help contribute to the goal of zero distance transfer,
then strengthen highly the comprehensive land use and improve greatly the environment, expand
the space capacity of underground parking, commercial services and cultural facilities. If the
subway station locates under the commercial road, or at transport exchange area, especially at area
of urban trunk road or even where highway passing by, underground transport network will have
much higher benefits for dealing with the mixed traffic situation of vehicle and pedestrian.
121
century, the underground motor vehicle transport system, particularly the vehicle road system, has
been got further extensive attention, and large urban underground vehicle tunnel projects have
increased in the world. The main reasons of such phenomenon are as follows: although rail transit
could attract some traffic volume from the private cars in passenger traffic above ground , then
reduce ground vehicular traffic volumes and meet the transport needs of public passenger, but
because the time flexibility and comfort level of personal vehicles are much better than rail transit,
the personalized vehicle mode still have necessity to existing . At the same time, due to the
constraints of elevated roads on environmental problems, underground roads, as a fast, safe and
smooth transport mode, shows advantages and becomes a hot spot in international research and
practice fields now a days.
(3) Underground Pedestrian Street system provides pedestrian roads and architectural space
built in subsurface. A number of underground pedestrian roads organized orderly together could
become an underground pedestrian system including underground pedestrian street and underpass.
Underground Pedestrian Street can also be an underground commercial street; underpass is a type
of single-built underground transport facility for people walking across streets or railroad.
Underground pedestrian system can provide extensive improvement in transport efficiency and
combination of user-friendly traffic space.
Urban underground transport systems mentioned above can be planned, constructed and used
either separately or comprehensively. Three-dimensional transportation in large complexity are
generally integrated of the above three systems. Also, these systems can be combined together to
serve for city-class three-dimensional large transport hub with long-distance intercity bus station,
or terminals of rail passenger, airport, port and otherwise.
At present, international communities also began an upsurge of research about underground
freight transport system. Some experts have proposed assumption of comprehensive urban tunnel
that contains large-scale, intensive closed pipeline system, together including subway,
underground vehicle roads, logistics and municipal supply system.
122
(2) At historical and cultural conservation area, natural ecology and human cultural landscape
preservation regions, higher requirement for environment and security sensitive area and pivotal
district, underground transport can protect the historical landmarks and landscape environment,
improve the urban environment and safety.
(3) Underground parking and underground express way can reduce the land occupancy by
surface parking and elevated bridge piers. Burying municipal facilities (such as electricity poles,
waste dump) underground along road can release large number of road space resources. In the
light of land market mechanism, a lot of land acquisition costs can be saved.
(4) Concentrated treatment of waste air system and sealed tunnel eliminate air pollution and
noise emission from undergrounds vehicle sections.
(5) In contrast with ground road bridge system, underground transport system can resist
various kinds of natural or man-made disasters more easily, and enable urban transport efficiency
and safety, especially in snow and cold area.
(6) Underground transport system can connect directly and integrate every kind of large
underground public spaces and facilities to form underground space network without interruption
like on ground space, and absorb significant portion of traffic volume from ground.
123
(1) The ecological model of future urban transport requires harmony between human and
nature with high efficiency of resources use. This feature needs rational use of urban land
resources and harmony between building space and natural space; the objectives of urban facilities
rational distribution ask for higher requirement of infrastructure reliability and environment
protection, which means rational use of urban space and artificial system. Rational division and
organic organization of urban space in ground and underground is on of the most important way
for making these objectives, characteristics and demands to be true.
(2) The coordination characteristics of future urban transport model requires demand for
coordination and integration of urban transport, land use, transportation mode and transportation
facilities, which means the relevance of human, material flow, vitality and concentration in a city.
The coordination target requests spatial support for transport function, traffic classification and
divergence, three-dimensional traffic organization and connection. Characteristic of high
efficiency, accessibility and user-friendly puts forward higher demands for large traffic capacity,
convenience, safety, reliability and comfortable environment. The realization and satisfaction of
these characteristics and demands all should depend on the expansion and reformation of transport
resources supply. Urban underground space use is one of the most important and effective
technical solutions and directions.
L1
T1
Land Use
Traffic Facility
airplaneshiprail
carbikewalkingpipeline
Hub
Underground
space
metrocarbike
L2
T2
Land Use
Traffic Facility
walkingpipeline
Figure 6.39 Transport, land use, up to down space and interaction between
demand and impact
In order to insure the relationships between urban rail transit and underground space use, we
surveyed a part of Tokyo-based subway stations at scope of 500-meter radius, obtained the static
index data about the development strength of underground space, land-use and track traffic flow
(LUO Lan, 2008). Results showed that, after decades construction of rail transit and land use
evolution, elements of the amount of passenger flow, the strength of land development, land prices
and the size of underground space development in subway stations of downtown Tokyo, are
uniformly related. Figure 6.12 (a) respectively gives two elements of Tokyo subway Oedo Line
and Osaka Midosuji line stations, one is the amount of passenger flow, the other is the size of
124
underground space development. From the figures we obtained that the two elements are positive
relevant. But different land functions in different station areas make natural differences in the
amount of passenger flows and underground space demand, this differs the relevant degree of the
index. Figure 6.12 (b) reflects the total results of 7 Metro lines survey in Tokyo.
Figure 6.40 (a) Tokyo and Osaka Station: the relationship between the
elements of the strength of land use with the amount of passenger flow
Horizontal axis: SIZE- the amount of developed underground space: m2
Vertical axis: T-the amount of rail passenger flow in station areas: Thousands of passengers / year
Regression analysis showed that the independent correlation coefficient of the following
micro-scale element, including the amount of passenger flow, the strength of land-use, the land
use function and the strength of underground space development of station areas, is bigger than
0.5. This means the characteristic of explanatory. Along with the increasing of the amount of
passenger flow, the comprehensive strength of land use, strength of underground space
development is increasing also. Figure 6.13 shows that, the amount of passenger flow, the strength
of land-use (integrated land price index) and the strength of underground space development in
125
public area have the highest relevance in traffic type of station area. The indexes of station areas
of residential districts have low relevance with the size of underground space development.
The result of this survey extensively proved that, in the model of land use around rail traffic
nodes, especially in station areas of traffic and commercial type where public activity are
relatively higher, intensive and higher land density and price is uniform with the role of
underground space on enhancement of connecting the functions of commercial and traffic and
unblocking the passenger flow in the commercial and traffic space.
Commercial
Transport
Residential
126
(2) Urban underground space and underground transport system is multi-objective and
comprehensive, which can take account together for urban commercial, culture, business, dynamic
and static traffic, and the saving of land use and energy. Considering various functions of
underground space comprehensively for constructing urban complexes is the important way to
improve the urban transport system.
(3) Cost and benefits on developing underground space cannot be calculated independently.
In addition to accomplish the basic function, underground space can obtain extra benefits from
multi-floor land use and get comprehensive high benefits of social, history and culture, natural
environment and so on. At many times underground space use is an often irreplaceable choice, so
that it should be paid special attention and preference in policy and regulations making and
management.
6.5.2 Characteristics
Planning
of
Underground
Transport
System
for
Physical characteristics, relationships and other features about the functions, knowledge subjects
and inter subsystems of underground space are the basis of planning making for urban
underground transport system.
(1) Basic physical characteristics of underground space can be extended to that of multi layer
land use, non-reversibility, high cost, relatively poor natural lighting and ventilation,
environmental sensitive and geological stability.
(2) Underground space is an organic part of urban function system, sharing most urban
functions and can play key roles on the intensive spatial development.
(3) Research of underground space utilization is an integration of multi-disciplines, which
involves in urban planning and architecture, land use planning, transportation planning,
engineering geology, civil engineering, ecology and environmental protection, cultural and
historical heritage conservation, transport facilities and vehicles, computer technology, intelligent
transport and information systems(ITS), economics, regulations, policies, management and many
other disciplines and technical categories.
(4)Underground space involves many of the urban functions, transportation mode,
organization and integration of space. Only comprehensive planning can coordinate these
relationships of all aspects by taking the advantages of underground and upper ground, and
maximize the value of urban transport and land use.
127
to the characteristics of spatial configuration, an integrate research and planning for underground
transport network system must be made with reference to the following detailed points:
(1) Point shape facility is the basic unit of underground transport by which urban transport
function is arranged in underground space, such as subway station, underground garage, and so
on. Along with the development of subway system, areas of subway stations as the joint centers of
convergence and distribution between rail traffic and ground transport, can be formed to an 3-D
space complexity which integrates traffic, commercial, cultural and recreation functions. It is the
most complex and senior architectural pattern of underground functional monomer.
(2) Subway line, underground pedestrian and underground motor road system are the linier
shape facility of underground transportation. Among them, subway line is the longest and the most
important constituent; underground commercial streets are often built neighboring subway;
underpasses are often linked with the subway station; underground motor roads system and
subway systems also link inextricably.
(3) Subway not only has the traffic function, but also undertakes important part in connecting
and integrating transport and urban land use, and has impact on underground spatial
configurations and arrangements. Establishment of underground public network system is the goal
of underground traffic system by taking rail transit network as macro background and backbone,
combined with the traditional and other underground transportation mode. In urban transport hub
area particularly, subway and underground parking, underground roads, underground pedestrian
street and so on, can constitute an integrate network both of ground and underground with
business services and traffic spaces.
128
(2) Regions of urban transport node, as represented by the subway station areas, is the key
zone of urban underground space development and important areas of urban land-use.
(3) Underground vehicle roads is an important approach to expand transport resources and
optimize the spatial configuration in urban central and key areas; underground pedestrian road is
important and spatial component to combine subway with other traffic modes, connect and
integrate land functional blocks by underground transport network.
(4) Underground parking is the key mode and developing direction for social vehicles in big
cities.
(5) Backbone system of urban freight transport and underground logistics systems will be the
next and important objective for urban transport.
(6) Intensive large-scale closed pipeline including subway, underground road, logistics and
municipal supply system should be a new kind of major transport mode in urban areas.
129
14
Source: Liu, Henry 2005 Feasibility of Underground Freight Transport in New York City:
Lessons Learned and Implications to Other Major Cities in the World [C]. Proc., 4nd International
Symposium on Underground Freight Transport, Beijing, China
130
131
132
high income through high efficiency of transportation can be achieved, as well as getting benefits
from easing problems of traffic congestion, environmental pollution and conservation of fuel and
land occupy.
(3) Key topics of research work
Relationships between the ULS and the urban master planning, transportation and land
use, and logistic planning;
Considered structures of the ULS network includes: Backbone networkLocal area network,
Distributional structure; Backbone systemExtensive system--Terminal system. The logistic line
could be considered as dedicated lines, hierarchical structure of backbone access lines and
secondary lines.
In short, underground logistics, as a new way of logistics, is getting more and more attention
that the applying prospect is broad. Based on the actual national conditions, China should not
invest without enough analysis, furthermore, to hesitant to advance. Through dialectic and
scientific thinking, objective analysis of actual local demand and fully demonstrated viability of
the premise of the project, urban underground logistic system in China might actively, effectively
and rationally be promoted in the future.
133
demands a higher standard of necessity for security, convenience and reasonable planning of
underground spaces.
(3)In comparison with urbanization in developed countries, Chinese citizens education level
and science literacy are lagging behind, and so are the urban management and the level of laws
and regulations. These are not good for people properly realizing the principles of urban
underground space development, especially may guide to planning lack of forward-looking and
even waste the underground space resource.
4 The requirement for underground space resources is not in accordance with its
potential locations for development. In urban central areas where more space and high
accumulative effect needed, the potential of underground resources are often in shortage because
of the high density of existing buildings. In developing areas, situation is contrary. Thus, planning
is especially important to take the chance of old cuties renewing and preservation, the chance of
new cuties construction, and not forget to protect the resources.
Urban
Underground
Transport
134
6.8 Conclusion
This chapter discussed the effect, thinking and directions of urban underground space use for
solving the urban traffic problems. The current and futures main tasks of urban underground
space use and the development for urban underground transportation system in China are the
research, planning and constructions of subway systems and let it be the backbone of urban traffic
network supplemented by other of multi underground space systems. It is the best time and chance
today to construct underground public space systems around subway station areas which can
combine and integrate the multi transport systems with land use together based on the subway
system. Detailed conclusions and suggestions are as follows:
135
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[4] Beijing Daily. 2008. Statistical Communiqu of Beijing on the 2007 National Economic and
Social Development [2008.1.30]
[5] Beijing Urban Planning Design and Research Institute, 2004. Research report of Beijing
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137
[22]YU Mingjian; GUO Dongjun.2006. Urban Underground Space Development and Urban
TrafficWell-Shaped Underground Road Network of CBD Core Area in Shanghai,
Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, Vol12: 1227-1230
[23]ZHANG Yaoping, WANG Daqing, 2002. Development prospects and Research content of
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[25]ZHU Wenjun, 1992. Research on resources survey and utilization of shallow underground
space in Beijing Old City, Master's degree thesis of TsingHua University.
138
139
activity and make the decision on when, how to complete the travel or just cancel it.
The elasticity varies with different transportation demands. For certain types of the travel,
people can get more benefits at the destination compared with the cost spent in the trip, so the
elasticity is lower, such as commuting, or going to school. While to some other types such as
recreation, shopping, because there are more choices, the elasticity is much bigger.
The measures of TDM are based on the characteristics of elasticity as mentioned above to
reduce the elastic transportation demand and improve the operational efficiency of the
transportation system (Zhang Yongbo, 2006)
140
TDM Strategy
Reduce total
demand
Reduce total
demand
Telecommuting
No consumption on transportation
Transportation
Demand
redistribution
Urban infrastructure
layout planning
Travel mode
141
switch
Travel mode
switch
transit priority
Travel mode
switch
Congestion pricing
Change Route
choice
Departure time
re-scheduling
Travel mode
switch
Parking pricing
Travel mode
switch
Ridesharing
Change Route
choice
Traffic information
service
Car sharing
Change the spatial distribution of traffic flow
Release the congestion and other negative impacts
Departure time
re-scheduling
Departure time
re-scheduling
Flex-time work
Form table 7-1, we can see that many different measures can be used in TDM. This research
choose three main methods for depth analysis, which are land use, congestion toll and information
technology. Note that it is necessary to take comprehensive measures in TDM practice according
the special character of each city to achieve the aims though each measure is discussed
individually here.
142
the total vehicle traffic and have direct or indirect impacts on other aspects of travel, such as travel
frequency, departure time, route choice, travel mode choice. So land use strategies are very useful
on cutting down the urban transport demand.
143
and decentralization principle. Residential land should support other functions in each cluster. Or
there will be some place with too many residents and will produce too much tide traffic flow
decreasing the efficiency. How to balance the residents and employments? The simple answer is
work nearest should be encouraged.
(3) Characteristic and synthesis functions of clusters
The formation of city clusters is the result of function aggregation, while this doesnt mean
that one cluster can only have only one special function. Otherwise this layout will produce
unreasonable transport demand and the pure cluster often goes to death easily. So what is called
concentration and decentralization is relative. If we want to build a city with several centers,
various land use form like residence, recreation, shopping, education, etc. should be adopted
simultaneity.
From the balance of residence and industry/office, the special character is an important factor
attracting employments. The other activities these people needed should be accomplished by other
tertiary industries. These will make the community a compositive cluster.
(4) Rank and size of city clusters
Land use form with multiple centers requires there are grade in clusters size and function.
These help the operations of each city center and facility the city development and evolution. J.M.
Tomsson referred four ranks of city as city center-area center-suburb center-neighborhood. The
aim of this rank is to build different centers to reduce the total vehicle traffic. The main function of
neighborhood and suburb center is daily life services. The main function of center area is to
provide some employments and shopping establishments. The city center is the social-economic
focus all over the city.
(5) Transport links among city clusters
Corresponding transportation system must be set up in order to advance the formation of
clustered city configuration. The transportation system can be divided into two levels, transport
links in clusters and links among clusters. The principle of promoting public transit and utilizing
present infrastructures furthest should be accepted to all transport system setting.
Public transit system is more sustainable. So the main transport link should be fulfilled with
railway and/or bus. The layout of the whole transport system is multiple centers and radiation. The
most congested links maybe the roads which are the overlap parts of the transport. Most of the
residents travel can be accomplished in its own cluster.
Land use form is an important causation of transportation demand production and temporalspatial distribution. The land use style of moderate concentration and decentralization can uniform
the transportation distribution and it is useful for city development in long-term.
144
145
Figure 7.45 The difference between marginal social and individual cost
Generally speaking, road user cost is composed of vehicle operation cost and time cost. The
vehicle operation cost includes fuel cost and vehicle wear cost. Time cost refers the value of time
spent on the journey. Usually the vehicle operation cost changes a little under the same travel,
while the travel time cost varies when congestion happens. The time delay cost can be calculated
by the product of journey time and value of time. The journey time is determined by the average
speed and traffic flow volume. If value of time is known, its easy to obtain the total cost.
According to the research of Else 1982, the marginal cost has the following expression.
(7-1)
MPC C r t (v )VOT
Here Cr is the vehicle operation cost. t is the travel time and related to traffic volume.
k
) , and the formula
it
kJ
Q kv
is easy to get the time-flow curve(Wang Wei, 2000)in figure 7.4 If we assume under the
congested condition, the vehicle operation cost Cr is relative smaller, and the travel time cost is
larger. We can ignore the Cr and the marginal individual cost is the function of travel time only.
The relationship of marginal individual cost and traffic flow volume is depicted in figure 7.5.
146
From figure 7.5 we can find that the marginal individual cost increase with traffic volume
before the traffic reaches road capacity, when the traffic volume is beyond the capacity the traffic
volume decrease while the marginal individual cost continue increasing. The curve is bending
backwards. Figure 7.6 indicates the relationship between travel cost and traffic flow under
different demand conditions.
Figure 7.7 is the typical relationship of speed and volume on urban roads. Traffic flow has
two states called normal flow and forced flow. In the analysis of road congestion toll, the normal
flow section is adopted so the equilibrium point of demand and supply is E1. The marginal social
cost curve is MSC1 in figure 7.6. MSC1 is bigger than the average individual cost and
approximating infinite when traffic flow is close to the road capacity. (Hai Yang et.al., 1998)
Marginal social cost curve has the same shape as marginal individual cost curve. Although
the backwards part of the curve can be analyzed mathematically, it can seldom be observed in
practice. So it is useless when determining the congestion toll. Only the up part of the timevolume curve will be adopted in the following discussion. As figure 7.8 shows, before toll the
marginal individual cost curve is MPC, and the equilibrium point is E. When charging with |DF|,
marginal individual cost curve will be changed to MPC, and the system will attend a new
equilibrium point F.
147
Social surplus
Traffic
volume
Average
individual cost
Before toll
After toll
Change
CFL-EFH
CFL
Increase EFH
Qb
Qa
Cr t (Qb )VOT
Cr t (Qa )VOT | DF |
Reduce Qb
Qa
Increase | DF |
DFHJ
Increase DFHJ
OJEQb
OKFQa
Reduce OJEQ
b -OKFQ
a
148
149
morning peak period (7:309:30 from Monday to Saturday, later to 10:15), it must have the area
license. The whole system is performed by the policy at the gates. For vehicles without license, the
policy will record its license plates. And the car owner would be fined 70 Singapore dollar and
receive the summons after two weeks.
From the adoption of ALS (Area License Scheme), control time, toll amount and the restrict
vehicle kinds were changed several times. And from 1989 the ALS was adopted at the afternoon
peak period (16:30 19:30 from Monday to Saturday), and all other vehicles except bus and
ambulance were restricted. From 1994 ALS changed to all day operation (7:30 18:30 in
weekdays, and 7:30 14:00 in weekends), and the license had two kinds, half day license and
whole day license.
Following are the effects of ALS after the operation of 20 years.
(1) Total traffic demand was reduced. From 1975, the number of vehicles entering into
controlled area decreased from 74000 to 41500 per day. And from 1989, the total demand reduced
45%.
(2) Average speed was improved. Before ALS, the speed was about 32 km/h in morning peak
period and 25 km/h in afternoon peak period, and it increased to 33 km/h after ALS.
(3) Converted traveler using public transit more. After ALS, ride rate of public transit in work
travel changed from 33% to 69%, and more used car sharing and ride sharing.
From May 1995, road congestion toll scheme was implemented use at the East Coast Park
Avenue. It is like the toll system used in highway. Everyday from 7:30 to 8:30 AM except
weekends, vehicles enter into the avenue will be charged. After toll, the traffic amounts reduced
from 12400 to 7300 everyday. The speed of bus increased 16%.
Since April 1998, ALS has been replaced by ETC (Electronic Collection System). The pay
card was installed into the windscreen. And car owner can save money to the card. The effects of
ETC was very obvious, the number of vehicles has been reduced from 16000 to 13000 everyday.
The speed has reached 50~60 km/h.
150
private drivers are obliged to pay the charge either the day before, on the day or on the following
day, whether they are seen to enter the zone or not, the same rule does not apply to fleets of
business vehicles.
The effects of the congestion charge have been controversial. Studies have been made for its
effects on congestion, traffic levels, road safety, usage of public transport, the environment, and
business activity matters.
Report in June 2007 found that the level of traffic of all vehicle types entering the central
Congestion Charge Zone was now consistently 16% lower in 2006 than the pre-charge levels in
2002. After the scheme was introduced they had measured an improvement in journey times of 0.7
minutes per km, or 30%. This improvement had decreased to 22% in 2006, and during 2006
congestion levels had increased so that the improvement, compared to the year before the scheme,
was just 7%. Usage of the London Underground transportation has increased by 1% above precharge levels, having fallen substantially in 2003/2004, while bus patronage in the Central London
area had stabilized at 116,000 journeys per day after increasing from under 90,000 pre-charge.
In 2007, the Fifth Annual Monitoring Report by TFL(Transport of London) stated that
between 2003 and 2006, NO2 emissions fell by 17%, PM10 by 24% and CO 2 by 3%, with some
being attributed to the effects of reduced levels of traffic flowing better, with the majority being as
a result of improved vehicle technology. In total, the rate of fall in CO2 has been 20%.
Free
Normal
Congestion
Jam
Congestion degree
0-0.3
0.3-0.7
0.7-0.9
0.9-1
Average speed/km/h
>60
30-60
10-30
<10
Car
<0.09
0.09-0.106
0.106-0.225
>0.225
L/km
<0.0562
0.0562-0.066
0.066-0.140
>0.140
151
Bus
<0.27
0.27-0.324
0.324-0.85
>0.85
<0.009
0.009-0.011
0.011-0.028
>0.028
The data in table 7.4 indicates that fuel consumption under congested condition is about 2~3
times of normal condition. And the fuel consumption of bus is less than car.
(3) Congestion toll can reduce vehicle emissions
Vehicle emission is the primary pollution of urban air. In Beijing air pollution, 73% of CH,
84% of CO and 42% of NOX come from vehicle emissions.
Vehicle emission is related to the vehicle performance. When the speed is below 88km/h, the
emission factors of CH and CO is inverse to speed. The factors are linear when speed between 88
to 105 km/h. The emission change a little when the speed in the interval of 40~80km/h. But when
the speed changes from 8 to 32 km/h. the emission increases a lot. Table 7.5 is the emission under
different congestion conditions. (Shi Qing, 2007) Congestion toll can improve the traffic
performance and reduce the emissions.
Free
Normal
Congestio
n
Jam
Congestion degree
0-0.3
0.3-0.7
0.7-0.9
0.9-1
Average sped/km/h
>60
30-60
10-30
<10
CO
<22.6
22.6-59.8
59.8-120
>120
CH
<0.562
50.01-52.78
52.78-57.4
>57.4
NO X
<1.43
1.43-1.68
1.68-1.89
>1.89
CO
<20.2
20.2-21.6
21.6-44.6
>44.6
CH
<4.37
4.37-6.95
6.95-11.6
>11.6
NO X
>37.4
37.4-43.7
43.7-62.78
>62.78
152
to transit.
153
Telecommuting also has impacts on non-commuting. For example, people have more time to
control by themselves, and may spend more time to their personal activities.
The influence of telecommuting is comprehensive. The effects are related to the application
environments. Accounting, data processing, programming and design sometimes are more suitable
for the use of telecommuting than construction or retail industry.
Telecommuting has broad application tomorrow. About 16% of the vehicle distances are
suitable for telecommuting, and about 40% of the work can be replaced by it. The policy of firms
is an important factor to promote the telecommuting use. Telecommuting is not restricted by the
service level, so it can be used in the place without bus or car sharing.
Effects
Collision risk
154
Casualty
degree
Travel time
Capacity
Simulation indicates that when 30% of the vehicles are equipped with ATIS, 10%
capacity will be expanded
Delay
Save 1900 car hours in peak period, and total amounts are 300000 per year
Emissions
Satisfaction
Lighten the pressure and improve safety 70~95% when communicated with center
As the development of information society, it has broad impacts on travel behavior and
transport system design. Information technology must be taken as a measure of TDM in order to
build urban sustainable mobility.
155
156
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1.4
1.59
3.185
5.3068
7.18
7.8
6.5
7.75
Price (Yuan)
14416
14444
27848
34349
30640
33897
38347
47815
Table 7.8 is the situation of Per Capita Disposable Income and Vehicle Population per 100
people of Beijing and Shanghai, and we can see that the license auction policy has distinct impact
on car ownership.
Table 7.11 Per Capita Disposable Income and Vehicle Population per 100 people in Beijing
and Shanghai
Beijing
Year
Shanghai
Vehicle Population
Vehicle Population
2001
11757.8
4.5
12883
0.5
2002
12463.9
5.7
13250
0.9
2003
13882.6
7.4
14867
1.3
2004
15673.8
8.4
16683
1.8
2005
17653.0
9.7
18645
2.3
Transport demand doesnt relates to the number of vehicle only but also have close
relationship with the car use. Though strict policy on car ownership has been adopted, the total
number is still big and because of lacking of efficient measures, the traffic congestion is still
severe. Survey indicated that the average speed in Shanghai is about 26.9 km/h while 26.6km/h in
Beijing. There are not obvious effects coming from license quota. (Liu Deji, 2008)
The use of substantive income is also discussed. Whether it has been used to build roads or
improve transit system is controversy.
157
Flow
distribution
Effects
Flow
Speed
Delay
Delay in the journey time have been reduced from 29% to 17%
afternoon peak
hour
Benefits
The motor vehicle flow from 7:30~8:00 reduced about 10%, increased a
little from 8:00~8:40. Non motor vehicle flow increased about 10% from
7:30~8:00 and reduced a little from 8:00~9:00.
There was no obvious impact on afternoon peak hour flow.
Fuel saving
Time saving
Stated analysis
158
References
[1] Else, P.K. 1982, A reformulation of the theory of optimal congestion taxes, A rejoinder.
Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. 17, 299-304.
[2] Hai Yang, Hai-jun Huang. 1998, Principle of Marginal-cost Pricing: How Does It Work In A
General Road Network? Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 32, No.1, 45-54
[3] Li Bin, Huang Haijun, 2000, The practice of Singapore Road Pricing system, Journal of
Highway and transport research and development, 17(3), 59-62
[4] Liu Deji, 2008, Analysis of Shanghai vehicle license auction Policy, industrial & science
tribune, 7(1), 130-133
[5] Ma Zuqi, 2007, Congestion charging in central London: its effect, progress and application,
Foreign urban planning, 22(3), 85-90
[6] Qiu Meichun, 2007, Apllication and study of revenue allocation
charging, Master thesis of Tsinghua University, Beijing
of
road
congestion
[7] Shi Qing, 2007, Study on the urban transportation congestion pricing, Master thesisi of Xian
university of architecture and technology, Xian
[8] Tomson J.M. 1982, Urban Forms and transport planning (translated by Li Wen Yan and Tao
Wuxin ) , Beijing, China Building industry press
[9] Wang Gang, 2004, Implementing effective transporta demand managementTDM in
America, Beijing, Chinese People's Public Security University Publishing Press
[10]Wang Jianwei, 2003, Theory of Transportation planning based on transport efficiency, Dotocal
dissertation of Tsinghua University, Beijing
[11]Wang Wei, Guo Xiucheng, 2000, Traffic Engineering, Nanjing, Southeast University Press
[12]Wang Zhengbao, 2006, Study on transportation demand management policy in Beijing,
Master thesis of Beijing University Of Technology, Beijing
[13]Ye Ye, 2006, The reasonableness and legitimacy of Shanghai Vehicle quota system, Master
Thesis of Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai
[14]Yang Zhaoshen, 2003, Introduction to ITS, Beijing, China Communications Press
[15]Zhang Yongbo, 2006, Study on the theoretic and evaluation system of urban transportation
demand managementthe case of Sanya, Master Thesis of Tsinghua University, Beijing
[16]http://auto.online.sh.cn/content/2008-03/17/content_2255183.htm
[17]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_congestion_charge
[18] http://news.xinhuanet.com/olympics/2007-08/13/content_6517186.htm
[19]http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2007-08/24/content_6594201.htm
[20]http://www.beijing.gov.cn/zfzx/tzgggs/qt/t805789.htm
159
[21]http://www.tfl.gov.uk/roadusers/congestioncharging/default.aspx
160
161
system should include traffic intensity, environmental capacity, energy consumption, and
transportation accessibility. Consequently, the objectives of sustainable urban mobility planning
are illustrated in Figure 8.1.
Put people first, and consider the safety and mobility of pedestrians and bicyclers.
Integrate transportation with land use and achieve coordinated development between
transportation and land use with high accessibility and reasonable travel demand.
Put the efforts on the research of the reasonable transportation structure and network
capacity.
Carry out environment impact assessment to reduce environmental cost and external
effect, while satisfying the basic requirements of social and economic development.
To ensure the sustainable urban mobility, theoretical framework of sustainable urban mobility
planning should be developed, under the condition of situation in China.
162
163
164
determine.
(3) Spatial Interaction Measure
This model defines accessibility as the possibility of interaction between two locations
(Hansen, 1959). It originates from the double-constrained gravity model derived by Wilson. The
influencing factors can be divided into two parts, one is the attractive force and the other is the
friction of interaction. The general form of this measure has an attraction factor weighted by the
travel or distance raised to some exponent known as distance decay function.
(4) Utility Measure (Ben-Akiva & Lerman, 1979)
This measure is based on an individuals perceived utility for different travel choice (BenAkiva & Lerman, 1979). For individual n, accessibility is defined as the expected value of the
maximum of the utilities over alternative spatial destination i in choice set C. It is also formulated
by the logsum of the discrete choice model.
(5) Time-Space Measure (Hgerstrand, 1970)
The motivation behind this model is that individuals have only limited time periods during
which to take activities. This model is measured by the scope of activities under the constraint of
time and space, usually defined as a time-space prism. Kwan (1998) proposed a measure called
feasible opportunity set (FOS), which was widely used.
To compare with the above models, Table 8.1 summarizes the advantages and limitations of
each model.
Table 8.13Comparison of accessibility models
Models
1
Formulation
Ai
1
J
jJ i
ij
Parameters
Advantages
Limitations
simple
direct
cannot
involve land
use
and
activities.
and
J: destination set.
2
Ai O jt
j
t:
predefined
threshold;
time
direct
difficult
to
determine
threshold t
theoretical and
representative
physical
travel
behavior
based
complex
Ai
j
Dj
d ij
An ln exp(Vin )
iC
166
A Wi I i
i
1 if i FOS
0 otherwise
I i
bi-dimensional
data acquire
To synthesize the advantages of the above models and avoid their drawbacks, this study
defines accessibility as the utility of individual reaching desired activities from origin to
destination at desired time by desired transportation mode(s). The influencing factors include: (1)
travelers, which belong to a group of people with similarities; (2) travel choice behavior, e.g.
departure time, mode and purposes; (3) spatial location, e.g. spatial distribution of origins and
destinations; (4) activities and land use.
According to that definition, the model of accessibility can be formulated as follows:
D j
Ai ln
j
ij
Where, Ai is the accessibility of zone i; Dj is the attractiveness of zone j; Cij is the generalized
cost from zone i to zone j; and are parameters.
167
(3) Mobility is the traditional focus of transportation planners but has become in question due
to the growing social, environmental and sustainable concerns. In the absence of congestion,
mobility is most effectively provided by the private motor vehicle. Mobility, especially when
excessive, can have a negative connotation, whereas accessibility is always seen as making a
positive contribution to a community.
(4) Mobility is a symbol of personal freedom, while accessibility represents public interests.
The empirical study on the relationship between accessibility and mobility in Asia, Europe,
America and Australia countries was conducted by Ross William (2000). In his study, the
accessibility and mobility values were analyzed statistically and drawn in system of coordinates,
as shown in Figure 8.3. In this figure, VKT (Vehicle Kilometers Traveled) is chosen as the
2
2
indicator of mobility and a Gaussian-type function A 100 exp( M / K ) is used for accessibility
measure, where K is the average trip distance in each city. From this result, the cities can be
divided into four categories according to the relative values of accessibility and mobility. Asian
cities have high accessibility and low mobility, and American cities are completely different.
168
600
1. 6
Sanya
2003
550
1. 4
450
400
Langfang
2005
Changchun
1997
1. 2
Shenyang
2004
Linyi
2004
Pop density
Mobility
500
Changchun
2003
Dalian
2004
350
0. 6
0. 4
Jining
2003
300
1
0. 8
0. 2
250
35000
45000
55000
65000
75000
85000
Dalian
Shenyang
Changchun
Langfang
Jining
Linyi
Sanya
Accessibility
As shown in Figure 8.5, there remains high population density in the cities with high
accessibility, where people can interact with each other easily. On the opposite side, the cities with
high mobility always have low population density. It is proved that the improvement of mobility
might decrease the urban population density, and reduce the ease of people interacting with each
other and acquiring opportunities.
As shown in Figure 8.6 and Figure 8.7, the cities with high mobility have more vehicles than
those with low mobility. Similarly, the cities with high accessibility have more buses than those
with low accessibility. This reflects that the maintenance of good accessibility in urban area relies
on public transit rather than passenger cars.
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
Dalian
S henyang
Changchun
Langfang
Jining
Linyi
Sanya
The results for Shenyang and Changchun should be paid more attention to, as shown in figure
8.4. Shenyang has a high density of population, as well as a large number of vehicles, which
makes Shenyang much accessible and moveable. This result contributes to the balanced
development of urban density and vehicle ownership. The accessibility of Changchun had
progressively improved while mobility gradually reduced from year 1997 to 2003. It is concluded
that the development of public transit and maintenance of public transit can reduce the VKT per
capita, even can remove the peoples dependence of car use.
Come conclusions can be drawn from the empirical study:
(1) Accessibility and mobility are negatively related. Therefore, the excessive use of car will
lead to the decrease in accessibility.
169
(2) Mobility, especially private car use, will lead to urban sprawl and low density
development, and reduce ease of reaching opportunities, then result in a low accessibility.
However, the use of public transit will maintain a high density development and help to improve
accessibility.
170
Figure 8.60 Analytical connections between transportation and land use (modified from
Halden, 2005)
171
Actually, job-housing balance is a rather complex issue with lots of difficulties to be tackled
the scope, the indicator to name a few.
(1) The scope of job-housing balance
It is hard to determine in what scope the number of jobs and housing units can match. If
considering a large area such as a county, a city or a province, the balance of jobs and housing
units is self-evident. In a community with small area, the balance of jobs and housing units
becomes useless and unnecessary. Therefore, the scope of balance analysis should be properly
defined. On this purpose, a dynamic buffering area is used to determine the scope, as shown in
Figure 8.12.
172
E Pi ln Pi
i
Land use coordination degree: reflecting the balance between various types of land use.
Define the coordination coefficient hij as the linkage between land use type i and type j, xi, xj as the
area of type i and type j, and then the indicator will be:
Rij xi hij x j
Comprehensive evaluation process should be taken to analyze job-housing balance in
practical issues.
173
per capita reached 1700 dollars and urbanization rate went up to 43.9%. According the
experiences from developed countries, it is crucial for China to choose a correct strategy in such a
rapid developing stage. Obviously, it is not appropriate for China to follow the way as in U.S.
because of large population and insufficient land and infrastructures. As a result, China has to
choose a way to realize sustainable development for the people and for the cities. Under the
circumstances, public transit priority, transportation accessibility should be emphasized so as to
reduce the use of cars and promote urban healthy development.
(2) The limitations of traditional transportation planning theory and methods
The traditional transportation planning is driven by ever increasing travel demand and
satisfies the demand to the utmost extent. Motorized vehicles especially cars are emphasized
rather than people who make trips. More details see section 8.2.1.
(3) The inverse ratio between accessibility and mobility
Given that accessibility is associated with mobility in an inverse ratio, and overdevelopment
of mobility and cars is not consistent with the actual situation in China, so the goal of
transportation should shift from mobility-oriented to accessibility-oriented. This idea traces to
Cervero (1997) where he suggested lying emphasis on transportation accessibility in urban
planning and design.
The process of accessibility-oriented planning can be illustrated as Figure 8.13.
174
housing/employment distribution and resident trip characteristics by using existing land use
models, to provide basic data for travel demand analysis; Add the accessibility into traditional four
step travel demand analysis as importation feedback condition of the model; Use the indicator
system which includes accessibility to carry out comprehensive evaluation and multi-objective
optimization to obtain optimum plan.
175
Figure 8.64 The process of integrated transportation and land use planning
176
177
rail stops or at transfer stations, and may be developed at high commercial intensities and
residential densities.
Neighborhood TODs are located on the Feeder Bus Line Network within 10 minutes transit
travel time from a light rail stop or transfer stations and should place an emphasis on residential
uses and local-serving shopping.
A typical TOD mainly contains the following types of land use: Transit Stop, Core
commercial Area, Office/Employment Area, TOD Residential Areas, Secondary Area and
Public/Open Space. (Figure 8.15)
Land use
Core
Area
commercial
Functions
Each TOD must have a mixed use core close to the transit station; the area of core
commercial should be at least 10 percent of the total TOD area. Its size and mixed-use
should be coordinated with the size, location and its region and the function of the TOD.
Provision of shopping malls, supermarkets, restaurants, theaters and other entertainment
facilities, will enable employee and the residents in TOD and its secondary area who
walk or use bicycle complete many travels for basic life and shopping
Office/Employment
Area
In order to relax the large commuter traffic pressure caused by the division of job and,
TOD emphasizes the balance layout of jobs and housing, so generally TOD has the
office/employment areas. Usually office/employment areas are adjacent to transit site to
encourage people of long-distance travel to work rely more on public transport and also
ensure the efficiency of public transport travel.
TOD
Areas
Residential
Residential area is the living space within walking distance to the core business district
and bus services. Living density in TOD residential areas should have different types of
residential mixed meet the basic requirements. To meet the requirements of bus lines, the
smallest neighborhood TOD average population density should not be less than 18 living
units per hectare, the smallest city TOD average population density should not be less
than 25 units per hectare. To meet the rapid bus lines and the track laying, population
density needs to be further improved.
178
Secondary Area
While TOD encourages high-density land use, it doesnt rule out housing choices of
various levels. Also, service of a wider scale of population helps the development of the
core business district inside TOD and improvement of service population of transit
station, so it is necessary to have low-density development close to the TOD external,
referred to as Secondary area. Secondary area is in the distance of 1 mile from the transit
site; Secondary area must be provided with bus stations and the core business district
directly linked to the streets and bike paths. In the secondary area, mainly layout
appropriately low-density residential, public schools, large community parks, fewer jobs
and transfer the company parking lot. At the same time note that the TOD and easy to
create competition within the core business of commercial and public facilities should
not be set up in the Secondary area.
Open/Public space
TOD should provide people favorable communication space interiorly, which includes
park, plaza, green land and also public constructions.
179
From large scaled regional plan to small scaled extension plan, from reformation in build up area
to development in suburban area, from transit corridor to station area, the TOD concept has been
widely used across the United States. According to the research from Berkeley in 2002, there were
already 137 TODs completed, under construction or in plan.
Portland, Sacramento and San Diego are examples of large scaled regional plan. The Portland
regions TOD program is carried out by local governments which adopted a regional
comprehensive plan and Urban Growth Boundary Growth that are consistent with the growth
management strategy. Sacramento set up TOD guideline to carry out new comprehensive plan and
confirm new development area, extension area and redevelop area through regional Light Rail
Transit (LRT) system. The city of San Diego applied TOD design rules as important component in
guiding land arrangement and city forming.
Jackson-Taylor in San Jose, California and Capital River Park in Sacramento are typical
examples for reformation in build up area. Jackson-Taylor project turned freight rail to the
extension of LRT and commuter service. Thus, former industrial site is changed into mixed-use
community with retail, office and moderate to high density residential. Capital River Park project
also took the chance of developing transit system on one side of the base, changed the former
industrial site which located in the city center into a new energetic mixed-use center. Generally,
TOD projects in CBD or build up area cooperate closely with local redevelopment phase, keep or
revive the comer center by increasing its livability.
For development in new town, the Placer Villages in California and the Lexington Park in
Florida are good examples. The Placer Villages is a new town not far from the city center of
Sacramento and is connected to the city center by LRT system. Its construction alleviates the
pressure of other community in the region and also the traffic congestion problem. The Lexington
Park is located on the commuter rail in planning, including 5 villages that are linked to the
commuter rail by feeder bus lines. It is a potential job/housing balanced new town.
For transit corridors, 21 metropolitans in the US applied rail-served TOD pattern, among
which San Francisco BART, Portland Oregon TriMet, Seattle Light Rail System and Dallas Area
Rapid Transit are most famous ones. Although the TOD concept could be used on various transit
systems including rail transit, bus or even highway, rail transit is most used in this field for its high
capacity and security, low energy and environmental cost.
Projects show that on city level, TOD could stimulate development along transit routes and
thus confer benefits to local real-estate markets. From the construction of the first line of
Portlands MAX light-rail system in 1978, all the 64 stations have already attracted over 3 billions
dollar real-estate development within walking distance. A study of Portland University found that
the price of housing within a 300-meter walking distance of stations is 10% higher than those
farther. Also, TOD can increase the ridership of transit system and provide more choice of
conveyance. Researches found that TOD can reduce automobile traffic by 5%-20%, the difference
is mainly decided by land use arrangement around transit station and the highest reduction ratio is
obtained in mixed-use area with an emphasis on commerce. But the precondition of these benefits
180
is a successful TOD and the success is limited by the citys environment and economic condition.
So the execution of TOD must be adjusted to regional condition and different strategies, activities
and implementation tools should be applied during the promoting process, combing the force of
government, transit agencies, developers and researchers.
8.4.2.2
TOD in Tokyo
Tokyo is an international metropolitan where 8.2 million people live within 20km from city center.
High density development of the city decides the concentrated traffic inside the city. In 1990 car
ownership ratio in Tokyo is 70% of that in Paris and 50% in New York. But its intensity of car use
per unit land area is respectively 2 times and 1.4 times of the latter two cities. Lack of land and
petrol, Japanese government has always been promoting policy to encourage public transport. The
railway system in Tokyo (including ground and underground) is the most important transit mode
of the city and almost the only profitable rail system in the world.
Different from other international metropolitans, the famous ring road that surrounds CBD of
Tokyo is not a freeway with high capacity but a ring railway, Yamanote Line. Same as ring roads
in other cities, Yamanote Line alleviates the traffic pressure of city center and at the same time
brings large number of employees and shoppers to city center. CBDs, old and new, nearly all
locate around the stations of Yamanote Line and Chuo Line. For example, at the sub-center
Shinjuku, which is developed in the 1970s, commerce centers, entertainment centers and public
constructions are no more than 1000m from transit station. Continuous walking system like
skywalk and underground walkway protect passengers from automobile and bad weather. As most
activities can be completed around the station, train became the most convenient and frequently
used mode to get in the area.
Moreover, there are a series of typical transit villages along the suburban railroad that are in
radical to Yamanote Line. Large community centers are around transit stations, walkway system
with nice sight connecting the center to residential areas and residents can help pedestrian easily
walk or take bus to railway station. According to a survey of Domo City, 67.8% of the total trips to
railway station are made by walking, 24.7% is by bus and only 6.1% is by car. Obviously, this
composition of land use not only attracts long trips to railway, but also reduces automobile traffic
inside the community.
8.4.2.3
With nearly 7 million people, Hong Kong is one of the most populous cities in the world. Only
17.8% of its land is under the altitude of 50m with the rest of cliffy hills. Despite of the high
intensity, the city traffic remains smooth and traffic pollution remains under control. This owe to
the citizens high ratio of transit use. From the 1980s, public transport has been taking over 80% of
all trips made and only about 6% of resident trips are made by private vehicle. To a great degree,
this success owes to transit-oriented land use pattern of the city. According to vital statistics
analysis, 45% of the population lives within 500m of railway stations. If taking only Kowloon,
New Territories and Hong Kong Island into consider, this ratio even reaches to be 65%. Except a
few exclusive villas on the side and top of the mountain, most residence which do not locate
around the rail station usually form high density clusters around bus stops. This arrangement helps
bus route to elongate distance between stops and thus increase travel speed and shorten the
181
distance from home to transit stop. With abundant ridership, transit agencies could get enough
benefit to maintain high-quality service and circulate in good condition.
8.4.2.4
TOD in Stockholm
Different from Tokyo and Hong Kong, Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, is a low-density city
with less than 0.8 million people. In Europe, Sweden is a lag developed country, where the
industrialization took place only after the War II and over 90% of its residence was built after
1946. It is one of the richest countries in Europe, with a GDP per capita of $17900. Also, its car
ownership of 420 vehicles/1000 persons is the highest in Europe. Noteworthy, although having the
precondition of complete mobilization, Stockholm becomes the most transit oriented European
city because of its land use pattern.
In Stockholm, half of the population lives in the city center and the other half lives in satellite
towns which all locate at the stations of radical railways. The scale and land use pattern are very
favorable to walking: exits of railway disposed at public plaza, surrounded by supermarkets,
retails, nursery and other service facilities. Moreover, sideways with benches, cafs and parterres
connect residence to the community center. The density of house decreases gradually from center
to margin and meanwhile, the grade of house increases. This land use pattern is especially
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Land nationalization
Different from developed countries, all land in China is owned by the nation and the
government has strict control in land use. So, the government can play a magisterial role during
the implementation of TOD strategy.
Policy guidance on public transit
The Department of Construction has specially issued an article (March 6th, 2004), in which
the priority on public transport was emphasized. For many Chinese cities, the outgoing of this
policy is certainly a great chance to implement TOD strategy.
183
184
become important to China and is encouraged by the government. Cars are getting into ordinary
citizens home and provide them more choices. The huge change in urban transport structure will
get the mobility, relative accessibility and directionality into turbulence. Meanwhile, the structure
of city space, the characters, functions and amount of urban land use will also be changed. As a
result, there will be many possibilities in the pattern of city development and land use.
Scope
To ensure the multi-functional intensive land use around transit stations, TOD should be defined
on spatial scope and development density. Usually, the spatial scope is defined by the influence
radius of subway station. Considering various factors of the actuality in Chinese cities, a
maximum walking distance of 500-600m is commended, which corresponds a walking time of
10min. The influence of rail transit is about within this area. Thus walking environment should be
improved to extend this distance and therefore enlarge the direct influence area of transit stations.
Additionally, as bicycle is historical mode, it could be one of the main transfer modes to rail
transit. Take reasonable time limit of 10min and normal speed of 11-14km/h, the influence
distance is about 1.8-2.3km.
Conclusion: a maximum influence distance of 2km from transit station is commended, in
which main transfer modes are walking, bicycle and bus. The direct influence area is within 500m
of transit station and is emphasized throughout research.
8.4.4.2
Density
The land use density and diversity are the most important factors to insure the success of TOD.
Especially, land use density is the most important factor influencing VMT (Vehicle Miles
Travelled). According to literature that analyzed the data from 261 LTR stations in 19 cities of the
US and Canada in 1995, there exists a positive correlativity between transit share and population
density. The elasticity coefficient is up to 0.6, which means 10% increase in population density
will relatively raise the city transit share by 60%. Experiences abroad show that the compatible
density for TOD community is 25~45 dwelling units and 50 job positions per acre. For Chinese
cities where the current density is already high, these indicators are apparently not enough.
References in Asian super cities like Hong Kong and Tokyo should be taken. The development
density around transit stations should be set according to the actuality of land use. The Floor Area
Ratio (FAR) of commerce, entertainment and office should be controlled around 6, and for
residential area the FAR is about 4.
8.4.4.3
185
Area
Adjustment strategy
integrated
planning area
new growth
area
appropriately
adjustment
area
redevelopable
area
fine-tuning
area
build up area
Station features
Adjustment principles
category
City
center
station
Main
office/business
Perfect
their
functions
of
major
business,
financial,
Provide more mixed use land and public open space that serves
advantage
community
center
station
186
commerce/entertainment/service
center
center
station
other station
center)
8.4.4.4
Planning Methodology
To strengthen the coordination of urban land use planning and public transport planning, it is
essential to closely integrate the development planning of public transport with urban spatial
structure on macroscopic level, with district land development on the concept level, and with
detailed design of the street ( or neighborhood) on microscopic level, and set rational public transit
network and sites and promote a transit oriented land use shape in each stage of planning.
On the macroscopic level, at the same time of setting the urban development goals, axis and
reasonable composition of population and industries, corresponding overall layout and alignments
of public transport network should be carefully thought over to guide the smart growth of urban
development.
On the concept level, the relation of area and city should be fully taken into account. On one
hand, the location choice of public transportation network site must be based on the current and in
planning status of urban land use, approaching high-intensity, high-density sites should be chosen
for transit stations; On the other hand, on the basis of taking full consideration of the alignments
and the site laid, integrated planning of residential, commercial office, commercial and other types
of land use along public transport lines should be done to balanced the construction size of various
types and therefore arrange reasonable intensive community space and open space
On the microscopic level, according to the geographical location of the plot, as well as the
distance between plot and transit stations, The following steps should be taken: determine the
nature and intensity of plots land development; adjust and improve various land use, walking and
cycling, road systems and public transport system design to build transit-friendly community
187
environment.
In addition, the awareness of transit-oriented of urban planning policy makers and planners
should be improved through various means. Their forward-looking, systematic, coordinated
understanding of urban planning should be strengthened to ensure the effective strategy
implementation of TOD. Because transit-oriented urban space and land development is a process
of continuous feedback loops, in the specific planning, firstly the initial scheme of urban spatial
structure and trunk transit routes network should be determined in accordance with the status quo
of urban spatial structure; secondly, analyze the coordination of TOD strategy and space growth to
adjust and optimize the layout of the trunk transit routes network and get into the next cycle, until
the coordination of TOD strategy and space growth meets the planning goals. So the smart growth
of urban spatial structure in coordination with trunk transit routes network is achieved and on the
basis of this, planning on concept level microscopic level could be carried out.
8.4.4.5
Principles of Design
Usually, TOD encourages walking and public transport and restricts car use. A general design
feature of TOD is created with such characteristics of the region, namely the environment for
walking the landscaping, car parking layout, construction design, and so on all kinds of
appearances to promote walking and bus travel characteristics. The main design features of TOD
are as follows:
Select the transit station or stop to ensure major origin or destination of transit riders are in
easy walking distance. Avoid tortuous streets and end road. Design street grid system to networkstyle;
Design continuous and safe sidewalks and crosswalks to make pedestrian access easy
Consider the bottom of the street commercial building walls, various building height,
structure and appearance to enhance the feeling of walking;
Bike paths and storage locations that encourage bicycle access
Essential services and conveniences those are located in, or in close proximity to, the transit
station
Reduce the provision of car park outside the road; the parking lot in behind the building;
Provide services such as shelter facilities, seats, and information at transit stops;
An overall environment that is active, human scaled, and visually diverse and interesting.
8.4.4.6
188
On the basis of specifying the city function of new town, make objective, well-targeted
development. In the process of building sub centers, move out the population, industry and
resources in good order from the city center by means of constructing high-efficiency, networkbased, large volume traffic system and therefore make full use of functional division of different
areas and complementary resource allocation. Focus on the construction of mixed land use
development, to provide the diversity of industries and employment structure, to avoid a single
function of the living and to build up a job/housing balanced independent new town.
That differential density rather than density itself is the key of TOD. Urban areas may have a
density already high enough, but the development density city of center TOD should be still
higher. In rural areas density is generally low; the density of suburban TOD neighborhoods should
be higher than its surrounding areas, although the actual density is likely to be lower than the
average of urban areas.
Promote new town development with rail transit stations as centers
Organize the new town construction with rail transit stations as centers, adjust and optimize
land use around the site with full integration of their respective features. Built attractive, welldesigned, walking favorable, high-density, compact office, living and commercial complex and
industrial groups around the site. Increase the proportion of residential area and improve the
regional travel flexibility, sustainability, accessibility, habitable, social diversity and selectivity
away from the rail transit stations.
1) Easy access design in the construction of the station itself, to achieve the "seamless
interface" between rail transit and buses;
2) Clear functional objective of feeder bus lines of rail transit, so as to well serve the new
town's main living area, which can improve transit accessibility and also bring adequate customers
for rail transit;
3) Focus on the infrastructure construction surrounding stations, improve the accessibility
and security of walking and bicycle traffic, including the Park and Ride of bicycle and its
coordination with walking system.
Strengthen public awareness and transparency of information
Promote vigorously urban planning scheme to help developers and people have sufficient
knowledge and understanding of government decision-making. This will help guide the industry,
business, jobs and the smooth relocation of the population. Strengthen the transparency of
information between the government the public, which can increase the public's confidence in
government decision-making and avoid the negative impact of blind investment.
Provide relevant policies and interests support to guide developers to achieve mixed-use
development
Learning from foreign experience, establish the coordination mechanism for joint
development to do the overall planning of land resources use and efficiency allocation. Its
government functions can control and manage land development from the perspective of planning,
encourage mixed development from the perspective of laws, regulations and policies. Its
commercial functions can guide the development direction with interests support from the
perspective of the market, so that development activities are more orderly in set direction.
189
190
Transit Administration defines BRT as traffic mode with a large capacity which integrates high
level service of rail transit and the flexibility of ordinary transit. BRT uses buses, but the quality of
its services can lead people think of rail transportation("Think Rail, use buses)(Federal Transit
Administration, 2004). TCRP, in its report, carried out a detailed case study. BRT needs to be
defined as a rapid public traffic mode which is flexible, using rubber-tires vehicles. The mode can
integrate the station, vehicles, services, lanes and intelligent transportation system as an individual
system (TCRP, 2003). GTZ, in its "BRT Planning Guide" (BRT Planning Guide) defines that BRT
is a bus-based transportation system to provide a comfortable, cost-effective service.(GTZ, 2005).
These representative definitions above only focus on the superiority of the BRT system, such
as flexible, rapid and cost-effective and so on. In fact, throughout the history of the transit
development, BRT concept was first brought forward because of the initial intention to improve
public transport service standards. In 1937, BRT is first considered in the transportation plan in
Chicago. At that time, the plan is to change the three fast lines to rapid transit lanes operated on
the highway, while the city center and downtown also have bus lines. Since then, a succession of
project, such as Washington (1955-1959), St. Louis (1959) and Milwaukee (1970) take into
account the construction of BRT.
At the same time there are also a lot of the research reports on the BRT. The American
Automobile Association's 1966 report noted: "If the flow of the city centre is from a broad pool of
scattered areas, implementation of Rapid Transit System is the most suitable way." The features of
Bus Rapid Transit system include low input, wide coverage area, ease to change compared with
that of the rail system. For this reason, it is more suitable for the low density population area.
While in populated metropolitan, rapid transit system could also be applied, because of the
systems operational flexibility. A well-designed BRT system with stations through the city centre,
the rapid transit system can meet all the transit demand while the city's rail system has yet to be
established. In 1970 the report of the Rapid Transit Systems development potential pointed out
that the highway system has the redevelopment potential, such as reformed for exclusive rapid
transit lanes. The main factors to assess the potential of Bus Rapid Transit system are the
investment costs, operating costs, bus lines structure, and the connections of city centre and other
key passenger traffic hub.
Evidently, the concept of BRT is developed as people seeking the most suitable mode of
transportation; its realization is from the improvement and reform of the bus transportation.
Therefore, it is considered that the rapid transit system is the high-level city bus system. Figure 819 is the evolving process of the transport system of BRT. In this process, the bus service was
improved to have faster operational speed and greater capacity, and developed information
services. Worth to point here, a BRT lane normally indicates an exclusive bus lane or a lane
separated from other lanes by some other methods. Typically, a BRT lane is a signal lane design
used for demonstration during the initial BRT implementation period, or it is used to meet transit
demand of a transport corridor that connects a number of town centers. For the above reasons, a
rapid transit system not only indicates a BRT route, it is a also transit network that formed together
with other bus lines.
191
Figure 8.19 Vary from lower level transit service to higher level rapid transit
(SourceBRT Planning Guide, GTZ)
The following is a brief analysis of the characteristics of BRT from volume, speed, and
construction cost. The analysis is done according to the statistical data of the BRT systems in
operation.
(1) Ridership of BRT
The following table is the statistics of daily ridership in North America and Oceania BRT
lines during work days. Ridership in South America is generally higher: 150,000 passengers in
Quito, 230,000 passengers in Sao Paulo, and 600,000 in Bogota. Over 1 million passenger in
Beiluoaoli , Curitiba and Eleigelei respectively.
Table 8-5 North America and Australia daily transit ridership counts
Transit tunnel
Seattle
46,000
Ottawa
200,000
Brisbane
60,000
Pittsburgh
48,000
Adelaide
30,000
18,000
Miami
12,000
Harbor (L.A.)
9,400
Charlotte
1,000
192
Wilshire (L.A.)
55,000
Vancouver
14,00024,000
Ventura (L.A.)
10,000
The ridership on peak direction during peak hours is up to 650 veh/h (such as the BRT lane
connects New Jersey-to Lincoln Tunnel and the New York / New Jersey City Centre Bus Station).
Ottawas bus traffic is 180-200 vehicles per hour in peak hours. In the United States and Australia,
there are less than 100 vehicles per hour, usually in the 50-70 vehicles per hour. On South
American central bus lanes, largest flow during peak hours is 300 vehicles per hour.
The systems of more than 25,000 passengers in peak hours are New York's Lincoln Tunnel,
Bogota's Trans Milenio four-lane two-way bus lines, and the Farrapos Eleigeleis the bus line. Sao
Paulo Eleigelei Hong Kong and the central bus lanes number is nearly 20,000 passengers on the
peak.In Quito, Ottawa and Curitiba, and other places IS 8000-12000 . In United States and
Canadas cities, the BRT ridership is similar to or even higher than that of subways and light rail
(2) Operational speed
Bus Rapid Transit systems operating speed depends on types of road and bus service. The
average speed of buses on dedicated lane, is usually 64-80 km / h; But if there are stops along the
lane , the average speed varies depending on the dwell time on the station and distance between
stations, usually an average operating speed is 32 -48 Km / h. The speed is similar to the speed of
light rail operated on the same environment. Speed in Miami is slower, but it is mainly due to
more traffic signals and the long delay at intersections.
The average operating speeds in the United States and Canada are different: 12-22 km / h in
New York City, 24 km / h on Hollywood Street, Los Angeles. 30 km / h on Vanttola Main Street,
Los Angeles.
The average speed on Kuerdibas one-way roads and Bogota's "New Century" Express bus
line are about 30 km / h . The average speed of BRT with stops in South American is 18-22 km / h,
which is lower than that of the BRT system in United States and Canada. However, this is still a
big improvement of the traditional bus speed, even faster than that of a private car.
(3) Construction costs
The construction cost of a BRT system varies a lot depending upon the Rapid Transit system
configuration (such as lane, vehicles, etc.), line location, type of BRT, and structure. Normally, the
transit tunnel costs from 200 million to 300 million U.S. dollars per mile, including the cost of the
station. The cost for exclusive running way also varies depending on the starting time and ending
time of the construction.
The construction cost of a BRT in Los Angeles, Miami Miami, or Pittsburgh are 600 -700
million dollars per mile; The northern BRT line in Pittsburgh and the recently completed Brisbane
line are 20 million Dollars per mile; Pittsburgh West BRT line costs the highest, reaching 53
million U.S. dollars per mile. The main reason for such a high cost is that the BRT line is located
in mountainous areas, and the construction of a main tunnel and the construction of an interchange
at the terminal. The cost of the fast lane trunk road, Curitiba costs 1.5 million U.S. dollars / mile,
Bogota and Quito is 500-800 million dollars / mile, Cleveland is about 29 million U.S. dollars /
193
miles. If use the lane for mixed traffic, generally the cost is less than the exclusive rapid transit
system. Cost of a rail-transit system is as follows: 2.4 million U.S. dollars / mile at Leeds and , 7
million U.S. dollars / miles at Rouen.
The statistics above show previously characteristics listed by organizations and research
institutions on the of the BRT, in general, BRT systems is a fast, low-cost and medium-capacity
mode of transportation.
8.5.1.2 BRT practice in Chinese cities
Up to 2007, Rapid Transit System (BRT) were put into operation in four cities in China :
Beijing, Hangzhou, Hefei and Kunming. BRT in Shenzhen, Jinan, Xi'an, Dalian are in the process
of planning and construction (Wang Hai-ying, 2007). This section is to summarize the experience
learned in the construction of BRT system, the concept of planning and development trends.
(1) Beijing axis Rapid Transit line 1 - the first rapid transit lines in China
Beijing South-Centre Rapid Transit line 1 was planned in 2003. The construction began in
early 2004 and it was included in the 60 practical promises the Beijing government done for the
people. On December 25 the same year a project (Muxi Yuan to the front door of 5 km) put into
test operation.
Bus Rapid Transit line 1 starts from QIANMEN at the city center, connecting Subway Line
2.To the south it passes the Second Ring Road, third ring, forth ring and fifth ring road , and ends
at Demao county at Daxing District, with a total length 16 km. It is one of Beijing's main traffic
corridors (Figure 8-20). There are 17 stops, one-way travel time is 37 min, and the actual
operational speed is 26 km / h. IC Card users have discount, and the transit fare are 40 cents for
adult and 20 cents for students.
194
station's construction costs. The South-Centre Rapid Transit Line 1 s investment is about 40.81
million yuan per km on average.
The BRT vehicles are designed with left-open door, installed with air conditioning, and
equipped with Europe engines. They are low-floor design, so vehicle floor and high platform
are about at the same level; there are childrens and disabled peoples seats inside the vehicle,
reflecting the people-oriented concept. They also set up a proprietary right direction and intelligent
scheduling system to improve the operating efficiency.
December 30, 2005, at the first day of official operation, passengers are 9 million .At the first
three days (January 1, 2006) there are 120,000 passengers .on May 1, 2006 there are 20 million;
October 1, 2006 the number reached 220,000 .At the end of 2007, the accumulated ridership is
5253.08 million; the current daily ridership is 13 million on average.
(2) Hangzhou Rapid Transit Line 1
Hangzhou Rapid Transit Line 1 (hereinafter referred to B1 line) is about 28 km long, and is
designed with 23 pairs of stops, six transfer terminals, designed speed of 25 km / h, as shown in
Figure 8-21 . There are a set of facilities ,such as open and semi-dedicated lanes, signal priority, at
grade boarding, ticketing platform, platform gates, intelligent transport and other facilities.
Maximum designed flow is 157,000 passengers per day, the peak hour passenger flow capacity is
9,600 passengers / h, with 100 vehicles . Total investment is 150 million . They are financed by the
urban construction fund.
195
was designed to use Germany Kaplan technology, using the European III engine, with 18meters
long and full capacity of 160 passengers, also with advanced air suspension system installed. After
BRT B1 route taken into operation, 8 bus lines and were called off and 4 lines adjusted, in total
200 buses not in operation anymore. To make the system more compatible,3 connection lines and
1 supplemental station were add to the system. In addition, these vehicles shared the same running
way and the at-grade connections were implemented.
(3) Hefei Huizhous Bus Rapid Transit line
Hefei GDP in 2006 is 107.386 billion yuan, and the per capita GDP was 23,200 yuan, so it is
unrealistic to make long-term large-scale trail transportation development in recent years. Hefei is
more suitable for prioritize the development of this relatively inexpensive transit with greater
capacity, faster, better services in short term. According to the BRT network planning (8-22), some
section of the roads at present cant meet the requirements for BRT, thus the exclusive bus lane or
quasi-transitional form of BRT can be taken into consideration. When the renovation plan of these
roads are in operation, the construction of BRT lane, sites, facilities will be designed.
196
forward the "bus priority" development of the transport policy. At present the Public Transport
Priority Development Strategy is giving priority to the development of conventional bus and rapid
transit system, and gradually to the track in the long-term nurturing traffic flow. Bus Rapid Transit
was started from the development of the bus ,and now entered a rapid transit system construction
period.
November 2003, Kunming and the U.S. Energy Foundation cooperated on rapid transit
project. After inspecting Beijing BRT system and researching domestic and international
experience in 2006, they build the extension Beijing northbound lane BRT system. Kwong Fuk
Road BRT system also completed in 2007. Beijing northbound lane BRT system starts with the
Ring Road in Beijing Road junction, extends to YuLin Bridge. the total length is 4.985 km, there
are exclusive bus way and they encourage cycling and bus travel transfer , as shown in Figure 823.
197
198
SourceIPPUC, 2003
199
development of private transport has led to the disordered spread of Los Angeles in space
development, forming a multi-center, low-density area.
Orange Line is a BRT line which is 14.2 miles (23 kilometers).The east end is Los Angeles
subway terminal, and the west is Los Angeles office centre. Along the road, it is the land used for
residential. It taked more than two years to construct Orange line. In about a year, its passenger
traffic tripled. After the completion, the average travel time shortened by 14 minutes in rush hour
peak period.
Compared to Curitiba, BRT lines in the Los Angeles played a role to promote the link
between the city centre and the outskirts, at the same time effectively reduce the dependence of
private transport , and improve the road environment.
Whether Curitiba, Los Angeles, or the other cities, the reasons for the use of BRT are to
promote the development of the entire public transport, and to meet the demand of the
development. So considering the position and role BRT plays from the perspective of network is
important. BRTs fundamental role is to support the development of the city. For Curitiba, the
city's development needs the public transport system to support and guide, BRT has played a main
role in guiding the direction of urban development in integrated public transport system. In Los
Angeles, it needs to spread in space. Additionally, BRT has played a role to connect lines to
support rail transportation .It reduces the reliance on cars , reduces pollution and promotes the
sustainable development of cities.
In China, large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, are tension within the road resources in the
downtown areas, public transport demand is too large to the BRT line. But in the early stage of
development, the connection of the downtown areas and some satellite town centre has little
demand, and the shortage of funds make it possible to consider the BRT line, while avoiding the
excessive development of private transport. BRT line can also more easily converted to rail
transportation when there are Future demand or larger funds. For medium and small cities, public
transportation system need to be further improved in particular. It can avoid a car-oriented mode in
the future. It can also avoid the Disorder development in space. We can refer to the experience of
Curitiba, plan the land development and the construction of public transport entirely, fully use the
BRTs characteristics which is low-cost and have short construction period, establishing a public
transport network , promoting the citys orderly development in space.
200
Corridor Selection
Demand Projection
Coordinated Land-use
Planning
Station Planning
Implementation
Planning
Impact Assessment
201
Transportation
Development Strategy
Coordinated Land-use
Planning
Adjustment
Adjustment
Network Schemes
Mode configuration
Network type
Route alignment
Station Planning
Assessment
Ridership
Projection
Implementation
Planning
202
8.6 Summary
The sustainable development of urban transport needs the support of related theory and methods
.In this chapter ,we first establish the objectives of sustainable urban transport planning, and
brought out the principles and the framework, including sustainable transport development
203
strategy, Traffic flow survey, the theory of urban traffic demand forecasting, the integration of
urban transportation planning with land use, urban transportation energy consumption and
environmental impacts, and the system to meet the basic need of sustainable transport system
development..
At present, the strategy of sustainable transport development is being made on macroscopic
view, but the detailed guidance for planning BRT is not mature yet. Therefore, this chapter focuses
on the methods to conduct transport plan based on the accessibility, and the planning method
considering the balanced transportation and land use, TOD development model and BRT planning
methods .These concepts and methods are integral parts in the development of sustainable urban
transport.
Sustainable transport planning theory is not limited to the contents of this chapter. Before the
establishment of a complete theoretical system, some basic research results of this chapters will
help improve the current urban transportation planning.
References
[1] Ben-Akiva, 1979, M. and Lerman, S.R., Disaggregate travel and mobility choice models and
measures of accessibility[J]. in Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Behavioral
Travel Modelling, 654-679.
[2] Cervero, R, 1997, Paradigm Shift: From Automobility to Accessibility Planning[J]. urban
Futures 22: 9-20.
[3] Cheng Feng, Yan Kefei, Hou Dexun, 2006. Integrated Programming Model of Land Use and
Network Design Based on Genetic Algorithm [J]. Systems engineering, Vol.24, No.10: 110116.
[4] Federal Transit Administration, 2004, Characteristics of Bus Rapid Transit for Decision
Making.
[5] Geurs, K.T and Wee, B. van. 2004. Accessibility Evaluation of Land-use and Transport
Strategies: Review and Research Directions[J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 12 (2)127140.
[6] GTZ, 2005, BRT Planning Guide.
[7] Hgerstrand, T. 1970, What about people in regional science? [J] Papers of the Regional
Science Association. 24: 7-21.
[8] Halden, D., Jones, P. and Wixey, S. 2005. Measuring Accessibility as Experienced by
Different Socially Disadvantaged Groups[R]. University of Westminster.
[9] Hansen, W.G. 1959, How accessibility shapes land use[J]. Journal of American Institute of
Planners, 25(1), pp. 73-76.
[10]Ingram, D. R. 1971, The Concept of Accessibility: A search for an operational form[J].
Regional Studies. 5(2): 101-107.
[11]Kwan, M. 1998, Space-time and Integral Measures of Individual Accessibility: A Comparative
204
205
206
public transport priority makes clear its basic target, i.e. the principal status of public transport in
urban transportation. Therefore, public transport priority in current China means giving priority to
public transport development to achieve principal status in urban transportation. To achieve
principal status of public transport in urban transportation, priority must be given to: land-use,
right of way, investment, finance and taxation. It is also important to give priority to public
opinion - guiding public opinion toward public transport. Priority on technology development
should also be given that supports technology innovation in the field of public transport,
implementing new energy and clean energy vehicle technology and public transport management
technologies. And above all, the key to achieving a public transport priority is to achieve an
institutional priority, which means to bring the idea of a public transport priority into the current
institutional framework as a long-term solution for China.
From an economic point of view, priority means a preferential allocation of scarce resources
like land, capital, labor, technology and information. Participation from governments, enterprises
and residents, the preferential allocation of resources asks higher marginal returns, must all be
coordinated. Therefore, the equilibrium allocation of public transport service resources relies on
the interest game among the three participants. The governments interest function and preference
directly influence the priority allocation. The key to ensure the governments adherence and
implementation of a public transport priority requires cultivation of benefit preference and
behavioral incentive in the public transport field to promote the incentive in both horizontal and
vertically organized systems. This will ensure a long-term implementation effect of the public
transport priority measures. Concerning the public transport service market, to ensure realization
of principal status of public transport, it is important, on the one hand to: strengthen guidance on
public opinion, adjust public preference and social evaluation. It is also important to encourage
more trip decisions from the residents toward public transport through demand management
policies, like fare discount, private vehicle consumption policy and so on. These measures will
encourage better service from public transport companies through supply side policies like
subsidies and market access, to promote progress on market scale and service quality from both
demand and supply side to finally achieve principal status of public transport in urban
transportation.
207
caused after the monthly tickets call off. The result is that compared with 1995, the bus passenger
volume sharply dropped down by 55% in that year of 1996, i.e. a reduction of 2.8 billion persontime.
Figure 9.65 Bus passenger volume and average fare in Beijing (19852005)
same amount of subsidy which could cover trip cost rise after monthly ticket call-off, for subsidy
and money for bus fare are saved in different mental accounts.
complexity and distribution patterns of residents trip decision demonstrated in the survey validate
the necessity and possibility of agent-based trip decision modeling. Meanwhile, the SP survey also
provides help in item filtering and initial simulation data preparation for multi-agent resident trip
decision model simulation. A brief introduction of complexity recognition of respondents trip
decision through the survey with the examples from Beijing and Shanghai is presented below.
211
Fare
WTP for 10
WTP for 10
WTP for 10
WTP for
()
()
minutes of
minutes of
minutes of
a seat
crowded
walking time
waiting time
inner-vehicle
(% of
condition
saved
saved
time saved
the fare)
(% of the
()
()
()
fare)
<10,000
1.74
0.13
49.35
26.43
10,000~30,000
1.98
1.68
1.24
1.36
93.69
76.89
212
30,000~50,000
2.19
3.35
1.67
2.62
124.87
80.78
50,000~100,000
2.55
5.68
2.53
4.39
189.71
105.66
Monthly maintenance
()
fare requested()
<10,000
781
20.63
1.23
10,000~30,000
1672
25.34
2.58
30,000~50,000
2592
23.87
3.02
50,000~100,000
3855
26.11
3.67
Lower speed
Higher
Comfort request
()
private vehicle
limit of public
limit of
Not
A little
(km/h)
transport
fare
crowded
crowded
(km/h)
()
Crowded
10,000~30,000
19.36
22.36
3.50
0.60
0.40
30,000~50,000
18.25
24.17
3.62
0.40
0.30
0.30
50,000~100,000
20.32
25.43
4.85
0.50
0.5
>100,000
19.81
23.86
4.32
0.70
0.30
213
transport for non vehicle owner and vehicle owner respectively. For all the two types of
respondents, the cost weight decrease with income and personal evaluation weight increases to
exceed cost to become the first important factor in decision making. The weight allocation not
differs much between the respondents of non vehicle owner and vehicle owner. The survey also
proves the influence of social members opinion on individual decision making. The weight is
about 20%.
Table 9.17 Decision weight allocation on private vehicle and public transport for respondents
of non vehicle owner
Weight of price factor (%)
<10,000
45.15
36.42
18.44
10,000~30,000
38.21
41.78
20.01
30,000~50,000
35.97
47.27
16.76
50,000~100,000
33.31
51.86
14.83
Table 9.18 Decision weight allocation on private vehicle and public transport for respondents
of vehicle owner
Weight of price factor (%)
10,000~30,000
39.32
40.62
20.06
30,000~50,000
40.01
43.93
16.06
50,000~100,000
34.05
48.93
17.02
31.72
52.09
16.19
>100,000
214
understanding about the relations between macro phenomena and micro mechanism to better
manage complexity at macro level.
n3
Government
n2
nn
n4
e1
Public opinion
guidance
Traffic trip
n5
n1
...
Service supply
Traffic system
road
Information
e2
Information
en
nm
Resident network: heterogeneous resident
Real-time information, attitude and
behavioral interaction to decide:
1. purchase vehicle;
2. trip decision (mode, destination).
Traffic information
Residents
Enterprises
Media
information
information
physical interaction, cost based economical interaction and group evaluation based social
interaction together make up of the key forces of individual trip decision dynamics.
With a limited behavioral space, social interaction might cause periodical change in social
behavior. Besides this, considering the traffic capacity limit, individuals budget limit, cost policy
adjustment and market adjustment, the resident trip decision at micro level and urban transport
demand and supply at macro level will both demonstrate evolution characters of complexity and
dynamics. Through introduction of micro agents interaction and relation research on macro
phenomena and micro mechanism, TRUSIT helps to grasp the complex and dynamic characters
and the corresponding inner mechanism, and supply a powerful platform to manage complex
urban public transport system.
The basic assumption of TRUSIT comes from the determination of the micro agent of
resident. With existence of many humanity assumption though, a real person is a mixture of
economic man, social man, self-actualization man and complex man with different
proportion. The resident in TRUSIT is assumed as below:
1. Limited information: the information collected personally is different from the real value,
the difference depends on individuals input and information process ability.
2Social identity need: individual has inner need to obtain social identity, it is an important
part of personal benefit.
3 Bounded rationality: individual pursues satisfaction of personal interest, not
maximization.
The other important assumptions in TRUSIT are listed as below:
Heterogeneous assumption: different residents, enterprises and medias have different
characters and attributes.
Network assumption: micro agents make up of networks according to the social status. The
reference group of different agents has different size and members.
Interaction assumption: agents continuously interact with each other on information, attitude
and behavior.
Status-based interaction assumption: all the interaction among agents is based on status
difference between the participants.
Social benefit trade-off assumption: besides economic benefit, the individual interest also
includes non-economical benefit like time, comfort, self-evaluation, social evaluation and so on.
Probability realization assumption: when probability met, events happen.
value, comfort preference, trip experience, traffic information, vehicle tools and so on, organized
by family, with given live place, primary trip destination, initial trip distribution, habit and
decision weight allocation.
Behavior: information interaction, decision making and trip realization.
Information interaction: resident agent exchanges information with other agents (resident,
media and so on) and updates information record according to the source, reliability and difference
with current records. The information in TRUSIT is divided into two kinds: factual information,
like policy, price and operation lines, and evaluation information, like health, social responsibility,
social identity and status. Besides direct information exchange, resident agent could also collect
information through daily observation of other agents trip behavior.
Decision making: resident agent should make decision on destination selection, trip mode
selection and related vehicle tools purchase and so on.
Trip: after decision making on starting point, destination, departure time, mode, an effective
trip demand is created in the traffic system. The system tries to meet the trip demand according to
public transport service and traffic situation, and feedback the time consumed, cost, comfort and
other trip experience in this trip to the resident, and the resident accordingly updates its traffic
evaluation.
Public Transport Company
Number: several, adjustable.
Basic characters: including conventional public transit, metro, light-rail, taxi and other kind
of public transport service, agent has different size, operation line, and condition and service
capacity.
Behavior: adjust capacity, service quality with given operation line and price.
Media
Number: several, adjustable.
Basic character: with different audience, preference and information processing ability.
Behavior: to collect information from government, public transport enterprise, resident and
traffic system according to the preference and supply information to the audience after information
processing.
Government
217
Number: one.
Basic character: static.
Behavior: to issue and implement policy according to given policy timetable. In policy
implementation process, the policy receptor updates the relevant status value according to the
policy content, implementation strength and self situation to realize the effect of policy
implementation.
A complete policy set includes policy receptor, channel, issue time, implementation time,
implementation strength and so on. Currently, the policies that could be simulated in TRUSIT
include:
Public transport policy: service fare, operation lines, emission control, taxation, subsidy,
service quality control and so on.
Private motorized vehicle consumption policy: registration, emission control, parking fee,
fuel price, toll, congestion fee and district traffic control.
Traffic capacity policy: infrastructure construction, management equipment update, road
network adjustment, traffic capacity enlargement.
Physical traffic system
Number: one.
Basic characters: each road has different capacity and pass restriction, road network could be
enlarged and adjusted.
Behavior: to adjust network capacity and pass restriction according to the instruction. Realize
agents trip demand according to the traffic flow and distribution, and return experience
information like time consumed and comfort to the trip agent.
from possible trip plans through comprehensive tradeoff and then ends the decision process. The
direct cost, personal evaluation and possible social evaluation together make up of the three key
elements in personal trip decision.
Suppose there are k trip plans for agent i at the trip of No. n at time t the trip plan j
could be expressed like below:
n, j
n, j
n, j
Where, DTi ,t is the trip destination, TSi ,t is the departure time, TM i ,t is the trip mode.
n, j
n, j
The trip distance estimation of the trip plan j is di ,t time consumed estimation is ti ,t ,
n, j
n, j
direct cost estimation is ci ,t , comfort estimation is: fi ,t , other body and mind experience
n, j
n, j
n, j
estimation is: hi ,t , attitude is: ai ,t , social evaluation is: si ,t , destination benefit estimation is:
vin,t, j . The estimation of trip distance, time consumed, direct cost, comfort and other body and
heart experience could be get from personal trip experience. Destination benefit embodies a
possible selection advantage brought by longer distance trip. To make it simple, the destination
benefit could be set by the system.
Considering mental account and sink cost, the direct cost estimation for a given trip mode is
more than a simple accumulation of each actual cost. Taking private car as an example, besides
direct cost of fuel cost, toll, parking fee, from a rational point, the purchasing cost should be
averaged into each trip. Actually, this effect is rather small for most private vehicle users. On the
contrary, after private car purchasing, the car is experiencing depreciation. Therefore, private car
use could bring some kind of recovery value. Obviously, this benefit descends with time.
Suppose at time t , the private car which agent i consider to use has a used time of tu , the life
time is tl , the cars value at purchasing is v , wear cost for each trip is w , fuel cost is f , toll is g ,
parking fee is p , then the direct cost estimation c of private car use is:
c w f g p fs (v, tu / tl ) fr (v, tu / tl )
Where, fs () is the cost average function, fr () is the value recovery function. Both of them are
decreasing function. There are also some body and heart experience elements of fresh experience
and driving tension related with private car use. Basically, both of those two descend with time.
219
Relatively small average purchasing cost, large value recovery and some kind of fresh experience
together explain the trip dependence at the initial stage of car purchasing.
Based on initial setting, personal attitude evaluation updates with new information added.
The value embodies individuals preference and dependence on different trip modes. It is a longterm accumulation result from trip experience and interaction with reference group members on
information, attitude and behavior. Social evaluation comes from a weighted sum of attitude and
behavior from reference members. The members weight depends on individuals relative status
and social tendency. The value could be figured as below (Hu, 2005):
n, j
n, j
sin,t, j A,i ,t A%
B%
g , i ,t (TM i ,t ) B ,i ,t
g ,i ,t (TM i ,t )
1
N
d
ii 1
ii
f pi ( pii ,t pi ,t )
(
ii 1
A,i , t
pi ,t )
Where, dii is the social distance between agent i and his reference member ii
f pi ( pii ,t pi ,t ) is the status difference interaction function, Aii ,t (TM in,t, j ) , Bii ,t (TM in,t, j ) are the
n, j
attitude and behavior for trip mode TM i ,t from reference group member ii .
Suppose the income of agent i at time t is ici ,t , then the normalized personal evaluation on
trip plan j at trip No. n is:
Sin,t, j D( sin,t, j )
Accordingly, normalized cost is:
220
time t at trip No. n is: Pi ,t , social evaluation expectation is: Si ,t , cost expectation is: Ci ,t . Then
the comprehensive evaluation value of trip plan j is:
TVi ,nt , j (( Pi ,nt , j Pi ,nt ), ( Sin,t, j Sin,t ), (Cin,t, j Cin,t ), ip , is , ic ) , where, ip , is , ic are
decision weight allocation of agent i for personal evaluation, social evaluation and cost. At the
simplest situation, function () could be linear, that is:
Where, pv() is the value function, which could take the form of origin concave S shape function
from prospect theory.
Based on bounded rationality assumption, individual often looks for satisfactory solution in
decision making rather than optimized solution. When a utility evaluation of one of the plans
exceeds reference standard set in decision making, the agent finds a satisfactory solution and
accordingly ends decision making. Suppose the comprehensive trip satisfaction degree of agent i
n
n, j
at time t for trip No. n is: SATi ,t . Suppose the selection parameter of trip j is: X i ,t {0,1} .
Starting from first plan, if TVi ,t SATi ,t , then X i ,t 1 , and the agent finds the satisfactory
n, j
n, j
solution j and ends the decision making; otherwise the agent go on with plan j 1 . If all the
plans fail to meet the satisfactory need, then the agent i finds the best plan through all the k
plans.
observation, especially for the interaction process and structure among micro agents and trip
modes in public transport market to make the user be familiar with the inner relations among
macro output, micro activity and the adjustment mechanisms.
2. Test platform
Assumption test: test the influence of different behavioral assumptions, scenario assumptions
and parameter assumptions on the traffic system, estimate the effectiveness of different elements
and assumptions
Policy process simulation: simulate the influence at different levels from given policy and
identify possible policy implementation obstacles through process analysis.
3. Design platform
Find corresponding implementation measures for given transport policy strategy through
obstacle analysis.
Find ideal policy portfolio through simulation optimization.
statistics characters, allocate the families into corresponding living communities and assign their
primary trip destination and other trip destination space. Fourthly, after living place and
occupation setting, according to families social stratification, build up the reference group, and
then set family members trip character as the fifth step. At the same time, after virtual city
created, the traffic system should be initialized, including pass permission, capacity for different
trip modes, and then build up public transport service company with given operation lines and
service capacity. Besides these, media and policy timetable should also be initialized in initial
setting period.
After initial setting, the simulation begins. The key of the simulation is the interaction among
different agents. Each agent interacts with other related agents based on given behavior or
evolution rules and updates its status in each simulation step. TRUSIT defines 10 basic
interactions among agents, as it shown in Figure 9.6.
223
Residents setting
family, member, age,
income, occupation
Media setting
collecting, processing
and distributing
Agent interaction
Agetn interaction
framework
i5
Resident
N...
Media network
i1
i8
i6
Resident
N3
i2
i2
Traffic system
(physical
i10
operation)
i1
i1
Resident
N2
i2
i2
i4
Bus
company
M1
Resident
N...
Resident
network
Government
related
policies
i4
i3
Bus
company
M...
i9
Enterprise
network
i7
224
industrial adjustment: factory moves out of the city center and lots of employment turns into unemployment. After a continuous bus fare adjustment, the city government cancels monthly ticket
at last and at the same time supplies a relatively high subsidy for the monthly ticket users. A
simulation of bus passenger volume in virtual city S in 7 simulation years through TRUSIT is
presented here.
Environment:
Figure 9.7 shows the map and the traffic system of virtual city S created by TRUSIT. Taking
the date as the unit, the simulation is 2500 steps long (7 simulation years).
Y
ear 2
0
.2
ear 3
0
.2
1
Y
ear 4
0
.2
Y
ear 5
0
.35
225
Year 7
0.69
No more monthly
ear 6
0
.67
2
.68
2
ticket()
ticket15
Taxi ownership: at the beginning of the simulation: 8.5 taxies/10,000 residents; at the end
of the simulation: 25 taxies/10,000 residents.
Rail transport: small, neglected.
Private vehicle: ownership lower than 1.
Non-motorized vehicle: rapid development of bicycle and fueled-bicycle.
Simulation result:
The daily bus passenger volume of City S in the simulation is shown in Figure 9.8. In the 7th
year, after the monthly bus ticket call-off, the bus passenger volume sharply reduced by about
40%. Comparing Figure 9.2 and Figure 9.8, the simulation on the whole reflects the characters of
bus passenger volume of Shanghai in the middle of 1990s.
15
building inter-city public transportation infrastructures have been designed and prepared.
After adopting a fiscally decentralization system, public transportation financial functions
and administering functions have been mostly arranged to the governments at regional level and
urban level. Budget that the central government allocated is relatively small. In 2006, the central
investment in the public transportation industry only accounted for 1.22% of the total investment
(China Statistical Yearbook of Fixed Assets Investment 2007). But, due to the absence of technical
professions at the layers of regional government and urban government, a lot of experts are still
inclined to support concentrating the planning and strategic development at the central
government level (GTZ, 2007). Therefore, the government institutions on the supply side
comprise not only urban government, but also regional government and the central government.
228
229
construction of modern business system. In 2000, the government focused on the reform of
establishing and improving market access for multiple operators. And in 2003, the establishment
of State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission promoted the inner
governance of the state-owned enterprises. The efficiency of public transport enterprises gradually
improved.
In the last few years, the bus amount increased continuously from 172,000 in 1999 to
275,000 in 2005. The amount of passenger transportation also increased from 29,900,000,000 in
1999 to 44,000,000,000 in 2005 (Statistical Year Book of China 2000-2006). Around the year of
2005, many cities re- measured the usage of public transportation, and started a new round of
resources integration. For example, the Dalian City integrated the four state-owned enterprises,
and established a limited company of Dalian Urban Passenger Transportation in 2006. Shanghai
City also drew up reorganization programming and attends to realize each district has a single
major enterprise.
(2) Incentive mechanism between government and enterprises
Government's incentive measures can subdivide into two levels. One is to promote
sustainable development of various modes of public transportation, and the other is to encourage
the coordination and integration of different modes. Subsidies and incentive regulation are the
two measures frequently taken by the government. There are two kinds of subsidies in China,
which have been called political subsidies and political compensations. The political subsidies are
appropriated to maintain lower ticket prices and to offset higher fuel prices and the completion of
governments temporary requirements. The political compensations are used to compensate the
loss of providing favorable service to the old and disable people, etc. Except that, government also
introduced some new kinds of incentive regulation measures, such as Financing Bidding
Regulation. In 2002, Chengdu Municipal Bureau auctioned off the franchise rights for 6 bus lines.
In 2006, the first Public-Private Partnership contract on the No.4 rail line was subscribed by the
Beijing Transportation Bureau and Beijing MTR Corporation. There is some contents in the Issues
on Urban Public Transportation Development Priority to advice developing bus transportation
preferentially, developing rail transportation gradually and developing large capacity public
transportation system moderately.
(3) Incentive mechanism within government
Enterprises are the direct provider of public transportation and, to a large extent, are under the
influence of the economic system as well as political system. The focus point of incentive
mechanism has been transferred gradually from business level to government level. After the
release of Issues on Urban Public Transportation Development Priority, the understanding of
public transportation has been pressingly raised. The subsequent draft of Issues on Economic
Policy of Urban Public Transportation Development Priority and Urban Public Transportation
Regulation has defined the responsibility of the local government more clearly.
230
20
Beijing
18
16
14
Guangzhou
Shanghai
12.5
12
10
Xian
8
6
Haerbin
Chengdu
Tianjin
Shijiazhuang
Wuhan
10
Chongqing
4
2
0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
P o p u l a t i o n 1 0 , 0 0 0
Source: China Statistical Yearbook (2006), China Urban Statistical Yearbook (2006)
Notes: According to the Code for Transport Planning on Urban Road (GB50220 95), every 800-1000 person
should be arranged a bus in large scale city, every 1200-1500 person should be arranged a bus in middle scale or
small scale cities and bus volume of a large scale city should amount to 10-12.5 per million people.
Figure 9.74 Bus volumes per 10,000 people of ten cities (2005)
Concerning the relaxing of regulation, efficiency is not very sound due to lack of
corresponding professional knowledge and long-term experience accumulation. For example, in
the implementation of Competitive Tendering, urban governments often prefer an enterprise that
can provide the lowest price. But, the service quality of the enterprise is quite hard to measure,
especially when the market lacks price elasticity. The winner is likely to lower the service quality
to fulfill the promise to government (Miao, etc., 2004).See from international experiences, the
policy instruments that emphasize relaxing regulations often let local government down (SERA,
2007; ICLEI, 2003).Therefore, many nations start asking for the return of government.
Box 9.1 Public transportation in Beijing
In June 1998, Beijing public transportation industry carried out a large-scale re-organization. In
231
January 2001, Beijing BASHI CO., LTD (600386) was listed on the stock market, collecting
773,000,000 RMB. By the end of 2005, Beijing City had 6 public transportation enterprises,
18503 buses, 593 circuits and 1 rail transportation operation. After a period, Beijing BASHI CO.,
LTDs business results indicated a deficit amounting to 130,000,000 RMB in 2005. Bashi s deficit
extended to 350,000,000 RMB on Sep. 30th in 2006, and the stock price also fell to 2 RMB in the
first half of 2006.
In 2006, the Beijing municipal government decided to implement property displacement
mechanisms and let public passenger transportation return to public businesses. Under the
leadership of the State Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Beijing started
integrating transportation resources, and then BASHI withdraw from the urban passenger
transportation business. In 2006, Beijing Municipal Transportation Commission, Municipal
Development and Reform Commission, Municipal Planning Commission, Municipal Financial
Bureau and Municipal Public Security Bureau jointly launched Issues on Priority Development of
Public Transportation. According to the document, the government will deploy priority policies to
the public transportation facilities, define the investment arrangement, and provide the road right
allocation and finance support. Since January 1st in 2007, Beijing unified the bus ticket price to a
lower level, and gave favorable four fold discounts to common card consumers and two fold
discounts to students. The rate of public transportation traveling shares increased to 34.5 by
October 2007, higher than 28.1% in 2005.
Sources:
1. Huang Yuying. The public finance devoted out to public transportation [N].Beijing Daily
Nespaper, 2007-01-03;
2. Meng Wei. Beijing BASHI returned to public business after property displacement [N]. Beijing
Daily Nespaper, 2006-12-26;
3. Ye Jianguo, Zhang Biao.Peking 10,000,000,000 RMB to Public transportation as subsidy,
market reform announced to game over [N]. 21 Century Economic Reports, 2007-01-09;
4. China Communications and Transportation Association. Yearbook of China Transportation &
Communications [M]. Year Book House of China Transportation & Communications, 2001-2003
The key problem of urban public transportation supply is the lack of incentive mechanisms
within government. Restructuring of the governments role and the role of the public
transportation institution system has been a concern (Chen, 2007; World Bank, 2006).
232
based mechanisms. Analyzing the governments behavior, it is obviously that there lacks of
enthusiasms to develop public transportation at the regional and urban government for a long time.
Therefore, the willingness and capacity of regional and urban governments should be strengthened
and it needs to regard the government as bounded rational agent. During Chinas ten years of
reform, the economic system has experienced great transformation, and at the same time, the
political system has also undergone change from centralization to decentralization. Financial
decentralization stirred up regional and urban governments inspiration to develop the economy,
and the performance evaluation system linking with economic development then ensures the
continuous willingness of government. The regional and urban government was subjected to the
economy construction and took less concern on public service. Essential elements such as land
and capital had flowed into the industry sectors, which inevitably resulted in the squeezing of
public transportation resources.
From a more broad view of the systems environment, Chinas urban public transport
enterprises experienced reform of operational right, ownership right and market structure. This
changed the pattern of benefit distribution for the public transportation sector. The original
monopoly operation system was transferred. Therefore, a new system and circumstance must now
be built. But the existing mechanism for resource allocation makes against the quick development
of public transportation. The government hasn't yet helped public transit enterprises to gain real
access to resource and the market. China's direct investment on public transport stations, transfer
hub construction, rail transportation infrastructure and other public transport infrastructure are
relative small (Table 9.7).
Table 9.20 Investment in Public Transportation Fixed Assets of Construction in Urban Area
(Billion RMB)
Year
Total
Transportation, Storage
and Postal Industry
Urban
Transportation
Public
Investment
Cumulatively
Investment
Cumulatively
Investment
Cumulatively
under
finished
under
finished
under
finished
planning
investment
planning
investment
planning
investment
2006
24692.0
13892.8
3654.0
1784.5
424.6
148.6
2005
18961.8
10754.4
2782.4
1463.2
320.4
113.4
2004
14703.9
8428.9
2245.4
1228.1
299.5
106.8
233
9.3.2.3 Model
The comfort, prompt and convenience of public transportation can be achieved through:
(1) Enterprises efforts to increase vehicle and operational line, etc
(2) Governments efforts to provide more infrastructures and promote the integration of
various public transportation modes.
In most previous research, more attention had been paid to solving the problem of principleagent incentive mechanisms and finding an optimal incentive mechanism between government
and enterprises under information asymmetry (Li, 2004; Fabbri, 1996), taking government as the
principle and enterprise as the agent. In this part, we built a model to comprehend the agent
behavior of government and enterprises at the same time.
According to the theory of principle-agent, the model studies information asymmetry that
already took place before contractingex ante is called adverse choices model and the model
that studies information asymmetry took place after contracting ex post is called the moral
hazard model (Zhang, 1996). When one-side principle can't know clearly the cost and benefit that
contract can bring is called single moral hazard, and its decision behavior usually can't be
observed and verified. Though single moral hazard is more widespread, under some
circumstances, not only agents effort but also principles effort cant be observed by each other,
thus double moral hazard problem appeared at this time.
The main assumptions are:
Assumption 1: Urban government and enterprises all play an important role in public
transportation.
Assumption 2: Urban governments objective is to maximization its welfare in line with the
cost-benefit principle.
See from residents questionnaires (in section of 9.2), the residents choose private
transportation for two reasons: comfort and promptness. And the most two most negative aspects
of public transportation are: congestion and lower speed. Therefore, we assumed that the input of
government was to raise the comfort and promptness of public transportation.
Assumption 3: An enterprises objective is to maximize its welfare also in line with the costbenefit principle.
Assumption 4: The efficiency of government and enterprise depends on the level of
competition between private transportation and public transportation. If the amount of private
vehicles is larger, and private vehicles compete for limited road and infrastructure resources with
public vehicles, then the relative efficiency rate is relative lowered.
Assumption 5: Urban government will need to pay for its efforts, and the cost depends on the
willingness and ability of government to pay. We express this with a preference coefficient in the
consumer welfare function. The preference coefficient indicates the level of influence from the
governments decision.
There is a bus enterprise in a city, where government and enterprise are risk neutral.
Performance X is a parameter to stand for public transportation performance. General travelers
are mainly influenced by public transportation service level S . Service level S is a token
parameter of public transportation comfort, speed and promptness, which is subjected to the input
234
of government sG and enterprise sF in the meantime and includes the direct input to
infrastructure and non- direct input to road right arrangement, etc.
S h( sG , sF ) sG sF
h( sG , sF ) is the function of government effort and enterprise effort, and is mainly
influenced by the competition of private transportation. and are the efficiency ratios of
government and enterprise separately. When the private transportation is more efficient than
public transportation, then the efficiency rate of public transport is relatively lower.
h : R*2 R , continuous, differential, if the partial differential is expressed with subscript,
have hG ( sG , sF ) 0 hF ( sG , sF ) 0 . It means that the efforts of government and enterprises
are all have significant influences to increase public transportation demand. is an extra random
variable, and is verifiable to government and enterprise. E ( ) 0 .
The total benefit V ( X ) (aggregation of external benefit and internal benefit) is related with
the performance X as well as social benefit coefficient ( 1) of public transportation
passenger volume which reflects the recognition of public transportation.
Let X E (S ) , namely the Performance is the expectation of Service level, then:
V ( X ) X E (S )
The non-direct money given by the government and business enterprises is a non-verifiable
parameter to model. Therefore, the direct service level should not be the transfer payment between
government and enterprise. And the efforts of both governments and enterprises is assumed to be
very limited and costly, so we assumed that the cost function can be expressed as an increasing
convex function C sG and C sF . The cost of government is C ( s G ) sG2 / 2 , the cost of the
business enterprise is: C ( sF ) sF2 / 2 , which satisfy CG sG 0 , and C F sF 0 . is the
token coefficient of willingness and capability of regional governments effort. If the willingness
and capability is smaller and barrier is greater, the coefficient is higher.
The utility function U F is constructed by the welfare function of the enterprise. It is
influenced by three aspect factors: one is operation income (passenger number and ticket price);
two is governmental public financial subsidies YG ; three is the cost (including oil price, the
vehicle renewal cost and land use cost of facilities etc).
U F P ( X ) C ( sF ) wE (sG sF ) YG sF2 / 2
P ( X ) wE (sG sF ) YG is the transfer payment between government and
enterprise, and
235
the exterior benefit related with passenger number minus of the effort cost of regional government.
U G V ( X ) P ( X ) C ( sG )
Scenario analysis
To describe the government intervention behavior, three scenarios are designed:
Scenario 1: Enterprise incentive scenario
The development of public transportation solely depends on the effort of the enterprise. And
the government has no virtual input. At this time, sG 0 , the problem is:
max
U F wE ( sF ) YG sF2 / 2
sF 1 w
The urban performance of public transportation is:
X 1 w 2
Scenario 2: Government Input Scenario
It is considered that government motivates enterprises indirectly as well as takes direct efforts
by itself to develop public transportation. But there exists a dynamic between government and
enterprise due to the distrust with each other. Unwanted cost derived from double moral hazard
exists. The optimization problem is as follows:
Step one: the enterprise chooses its effort s F to optimize its utility objective under certain
conditions:
max
U F wE (sG s F ) YG s F2 / 2
Step two: the government chooses its effort sG to optimize its utility objective under certain
conditions:
max
U F ( w) E (sG s F ) YG s G2 / 2
s F 2 w
The governments optimal effort is:
s G 2 ( w)
X 2 ( w) 2 w 2
Scenario 3: Institutional arrangement scenario
Government's efforts to support public transportation are not the result of games with
enterprise but have become a long-term institutional arrangement. At this time, the government
236
and enterprise trust each other and corporately maximize the social welfare function as their
mutual objective.
max I V ( X ) C s G C s F
E (sG s F ) sG2 / 2 s F2 / 2
The enterprises optimal effort is:
s F 3
X 3 2 2
Conclusions:
(1) Under the first and second scenarios, the efforts of enterprises depend on the transfer
coefficient between government and enterprise w and the efficiency of enterprise . It is thus
clear that increasing the transfer payment from government to enterprise is helpful to increase
enterprises efforts. Meanwhile, providing priority policy to public transportation and improving
the efficiency of enterprise is also helpful.
(2) Under the second scenario, the governments efforts depend on the social benefit
coefficient related to passenger volume, the transfer coefficient between government and
enterprise w and the efficiency of government . It is thus clear that more social emphasis
results in more support from the government. And limitation policy for private transportation and
improving of government efficiency is also advantageous to public transportation.
(3) Comparing the first scenario with the second scenario, the formers performance is lower
than that of the latter. It is presumed that if the urban public transportation wanted to achieve a
higher target level, it is better not to depend on the efforts of enterprise solely. The government
should provide partial public transportation service directly, and find a trade-off between the two
kinds of input (indirect and direct).
(4) Comparing the three kinds of scenarios, performance of the third scenario attain higher
results than the other two. It is concluded that if the efforts that government put into public
transportation is only temporary, there exists a dynamic of trust and mistrust between government
and enterprise. The performance of public transportation cant achieve a best solution but a
second best solution and the two parties will need to pay a higher double moral hazard cost.
(5) If the public transportation performance wanted to maintain a longer period of high
performance, there needs to be a relative stable institutional system in place for public financial
investment and service input. Institutionalization is helpful to maximize social welfare.
237
9.3.3.2 Progress
(1) The institutional arrangement of the central government
Great progress has been made at the central government level. The idea of public
transportation has been initiated to the central decision level and brought into the nations Energy
Conservation Law.
238
T Policy document
Organization
Main contents
Progress
ime
2
Issues
on
implementing
000
national "Expedite Engineering" of
urban
road
transportation
management
2
National scheme of urban road
001
transportation management in 2001
2
005
2
005
MOC,MOP
S
MOC,MOP
S
MOC,NDR
C,MOST,MOPS,
MOF,MOLR
MOC
MOC,NDR
C,MOF,MOLSS
NC
SCNPC
239
Implem
ented
Implem
ented
Implem
ented
Implem
ented
Implem
ented
Penden
t
Implem
ented
2
008
NPC
Implem
ented
MOC: Ministry of Construction; NDRC: National Development and Reform Commission; MOST: Ministry of Science and Technology; MOPS: Ministry of Public Security; MOLR: Ministry of
Land and Resources; MOF: Ministry of Finance; MOLSS: Ministry of Labor and Social Security SC: State Council; SCNPC Standing Committee of National People's Congress; NPC:
National People's Congress; MOCT: Ministry of Communication and Transportation.
240
241
Main tasks:
a) Speeding up the constructions of public transportation infrastructure; b) Concretely
regulating market behaviors of public transportation; c) Strongly enhancing the public
transportation management and service level ;d) Further consummating supporting policy of
public transportation development;
Special arrangements:
a) Drawing up the integration reorganization programming. In 2009, the reorganization of
area public companies will basically be finished and realize one district has only one major
enterprise.; b) Regulating market behaviors of public transportation companies concretely. In
2007, the evaluation system of public transportation enterprises was established. In 2008, related
assessment will be implemented in order to strengthen the supervision of the public transportation
companies; c) Constructing long-term mechanism to improve public transportation. Based on the
special subsidy of public transportation, the long term supporting mechanism of subsidy or
purchase by the government will be established.
Dalian, Liaoning province
Policy documents: Opinions on Developing Public Transportation Priority in Dalian,
Special Programming of Urban Public Transportation in Dalian, Development Programming of
Urban Bus Rapid Transportation in Dalian
Performance target: According to the programming of the government, Dalian will take the
rail transport as the backbone and city public transportation as the main body, integrating with
other means of transportation.
Main tasks:
a) Continuously enlarging investment of infrastructure construction; b) Actively and steadily
promoting the reform; c) Sound system construction;
Special arrangements:
a) Having established special leading group of prior development of city public
transportation, along with putting forward the concrete measures and target regarding prior
development of city public transportation; b) Having planned 10 special road for public
transportation; c) Having integrated the 4 state owned public transportation enterprises to establish
Dalian Urban Passenger Transportation Group; d) Putting great efforts on the construction of
special road and station facilities recently. Enlarge the investment on public station facilities
construction.
Xinxiang, Henan province
242
system in line with the transformation of administrative system to public service oriented
government, and (2) combine public transportation priority into a long term institutional
arrangement, including planning management system and financial budgeting system. The
institution of public transportation priority should be coupled with the conventional system. There
needs to be a linkage between the performance evaluation of the local government and the
evaluation of public transportation, push forward the administration accountability and perfect the
superior system. Finally, there need to be mechanisms in place to strengthen the implementation
guarantee of the vertical system, in order to promote the institutional diffusion on the horizontal
level through yardstick competition.
(2) Optimizing the organizational arrangement of regional and urban government, deepening
the reform of public financial system and strengthening the capability of regional government to
provide public transportation service;
(3) Strengthening the support from central government at the macro level;
There are still no special law has been developed for public transportation. The central
government should strengthen the lawmaking of public transportation, further perfect an urban
public transportation technique standard system and regulate the urban government behavior by
law. And, there should remain a push forward for government performance evaluation and
administrative accountability to perfect the superior system of public transportation service
system.
(4) Based on the experience of market reform, fully inspiring the enterprises on achieving
win-win;
Our public transportation industry has experienced a period of market reform. The
government organization should introduce the market mechanism accurately and appropriate
social resources to raise the ability of providing adequate public services.
(5) Valuing the residents' evaluation;
Strengthen the input from residents, media and NPA and promote the service level
comprehensively.
conclude but to evoke some deep thinking about the actual influence on the society for any given
policy.
Table 9.9 Policies and their influence
Policy
Measures
Policy influence
Resident
Law
guarantee
Legislation
Enterprise
Government
All residents:
Be helpful to
strengthen public
transport
of enterprise and
equilibrium problem ;
improvement
market stability;
expectation;
uncertainty of
private vehicle
consumption
increase;
Organization
Guarantee
All residents:
specialized public
strengthen public
bureaucratic
and information
transportation
transport
management;
transparence between
Build
up
organization
to
moderate
and
improvement
government and
expectation;
enterprise, and be
inspect
advantageous to the
establishment of a longterm and stable policy;
Need to pay more
public financial
expenditure;
Investment
arrangement
All residents:
Be helpful to
of expanding and
strengthen public
business continuous
cost;
introduce
transport
operation;
The possible
capital
access
improvement
expectation;
become important
obstacle;
Policy
Give subsidies to
subsidies
incremental
cost
Be helpful to
rider: improve
maintain its
cost;
public transport
operational activity;
Public transport
service
expectation;
extent;
245
Policy
compensation
Favorable
price
Be helpful to
maintain its
cost;
cost;
operational activity;
Other rider:
comfort
extent;
decreases;
All trip maker:
traffic load and
speed;
All residents:
orientation of old
people in family and
society;
Favorable
price
for student
Student rider:
Be helpful to
maintain its
cost;
operational activity;
traffic load
redistribution;
extent;
May be resisted by
related school bus
operational system;
Ticket price
reform
Ticket discount
Increase
competitive ability of
government's public
financial expenditure;
price lines
If can't acquire a
increase, comfort
reasonable government
decrease;
Public transport
influence traffic
burden;
Public transport
transportation
of the public
coupon
cost;
transportation;
All residents:
influence
stratification
balance;
Inter-mode
Public transport
discount
service competitive
cost;
cost; user
increase, comfort
246
decrease;
If can't acquire a
reasonable government
Free in
urban
center
Public transport
May be subjected to
competitive ability in
Residents in central
pressure from
areas: trip
residential and
convenience; over
If can't acquire a
reasonable government
area;
influence on
burden;
In line public
Raise the
Be helpful to raise
transport rider:
competitive advantage
transportation
reduce in-vehicle
Increase management
vehicles
time; more
cost of government;
crowded;
be helpful to guarantee
May be subjected to
quality;
from private
Provide
special
driveway for
private vehicle
transportation;
narrow down;
Other trip maker:
occupy
driveway for nonmotorized
vehicle, walk
way, isolation
belt and green
belt;
All trip maker:
chaos in entrance
and exit of special
lane; more trip
choice
Priority signal
Speed improving
Public transport
Raise the
Increase management
rider: shorten
competitive advantage
cost of government;
cross time;
May be subjected to
mitigate cross
nerves; improve
advantageous to the
from private
247
social evaluation;
transportation;
Priority right to
Increase the
Increase management
competitive advantage
cost of government;
May be subjected to
allocation and be
helpful to guarantee
from private
transportation;
Priority
parking
quality;
Rail
transportation
construction
Construction
mass
of
Provide
Be helpful to raise
rail
improve trip
development
convenience;
opportunity to the
public transportation,
public transportation;
Be convenient for
demand;
Increase public
financial expenditure,
transportation;
transportation
Restriction
the
Public transport
Increase the
Increase
for
district
access
accession
to
rider: improve
competitive advantage
management cost of
social evaluation;
government to public
bus
utilization and be
transportation;
psycho
helpful to guarantee
May be subjected to
inferiority;
quality;
from private
transportation;
inferiority;
Residents in central
248
area: living
environment
changereduce
trip choice;
All trip maker:
reduce trip choice;
district orientation
change;
Public
opinion
guidance
Strengthens
the
All residents:
Be helpful to push
Cost is relative
publicity
and
strengthen public
lower;
transport service
transportation;
leading
toward
public
improvement
transportation
expectation;
and deepen.
Source: Field survey to Guangzhou Municipal Commission of communications and Guangzhou Development
and Reform Commission, and interview the relevant members.
249
vehicle options will suggest a portfolio of solutions that are globally diverse, regionally
developed, and locally deployed. China vehicle development and vehicle market show significant
potential for continuing growth. This significant potential positions China in a leadership role to:
define new, innovative, and very financially effective pathways for the development and
deployment of new energy vehicles a far better position than the established transportation
infrastructures of the EU, United States and other developed countries. In recent years, many
international automobile companies have continuously increased investment in China and Chinese
auto enterprises have been studying advanced automotive technologies at multi-levels and in all
areas. At the same time, independent research and development capabilities, and independent
development of new brands has gained a lot of attention. However, there is a growing need for
understanding of the energy resource potential and the market potential of the new energy vehicles
from the perspectives of industry and the government.
Currently, buses are the core strategy of the transit priority. And, if developed sustainably,
should have characteristics of low energy consumption, low GHG emissions and pollution, small
footprint (requirement for space), etc. Compared to the traditional diesel-powered bus, new energy
buses have obvious advantages in reducing energy requirements, improving efficiency, reducing
tailpipe emissions, and guaranteeing energy supply security. Research and practice indicate that
taking the lead to develop new energy buses, which run a relatively fixed route and therefore have
simplified refueling requirements, can be upgraded in a relatively short period of time and can
apply mature technologies for production & maintenance effectively makes buses a very likely
candidate to institute new energy vehicle technologies in the near term. The public transport
system buses can also be coordinated to facilitate centralized management, professional pilot
demonstration and promotion of the scale development.
9.5.1 The Relationship between Transit Priority and New Energy Bus
In recent years, the concept of "transit priority" has gradually become the consensus of urban
residents, particularly local officials. The practice of developing new energy buses in Guangzhou
and other cities shows that transit priority and the development of new energy buses can support
each other. Firstly, transit priority can not only provide a new perspective of development policies
and social dynamic responses for the new energy buses, but also increase new sources of funding
and public financial supports for development of the new energy buses. Secondly, the
development of new energy buses is conducive to the implementation of the transit priority, and
expands the ideas of the transit priority to the public, let residents feel and practice the transit
priority in a clean and comfortable environment. Clearly, the transit priority and the development
of new energy buses share a close relationship. As showed in Figure 9.11.
The general sense of the transit priority refers to a mode which buses and other public transport
options within the city are at the core, supplemented by other modes of urban transport. Figure 11
mainly includes the priority of road right distribution (for example, create a special driveway for
public transport), land usage, fiscal and taxation support, and investment arrangements. The
application of new energy vehicles in the fields of public transportation will not only provide highquality, sustainable public transport services for the public, but also substantially speed up the
250
process of upgrading buses. Through testing of the market and society, the direction of new energy
bus development and technology routes will be selected.
Road right
distribution
Energy
structure
Include
Land usage
Include
Transit priority
Fiscal and taxation
supporting
Include
Include
Improve
Efficiency
Reduce
Breakthrough & new idea
Emissions
Guarantee
Supply security
Investment
arrangement
The combination of transit priority and the development of new energy buses expands the
effectiveness of a transit priority greatly. And, the outcome not only supports the sustainability of
the existing buses, but also the technology insertion process for new energy buses. At the same
time, new energy buses can be added into the process of road right distribution, land usage,
taxation and investment support. Public transport aims to provide the basic services for the general
public with a goal to maintain and improve the quality and level of services. So governments
should act on the concept of a "bus priority. And, a bus priority should closely follow the trend
of development of automotive technology, and continuously adopt the latest technologies, which
embody its "priority".
New energy buses not only expand the transit priority concept of urban transport
development, but also indicate an example to follow for new energy vehicle development.
Therefore, new energy buses should become a near term choice of urban transportation, from the
perspective of both public transportation development. Focusing on the development strategy of a
transit priority based on full scale development of LPG buses, Guangzhou integrates the concept
of a transit priority and the practice of new energy bus development together. The coordination of
initiatives is worth learning from and using as a reference.
9.5.2 Impetus of the Scale Development of LPG Bus in Guangzhou City and its Bases
It has always been a priority for Guangzhou city to promote its development of public
transport. However, due to the black smoke emitted by traditional buses, which influence the
quality of the city air, it is more and more difficult for the city to be recognized as the City for
Entrepreneurs and Good Life, Landscape of all, and Cultural Cities and Model City of
251
National Environmental Protection. The bad quality of the city air brings an unsatisfactory
feeling to the residents and more and more requests are being made to the local government
regarding improving the air quality.
The promotion of the LPG bus of Guangzhou City is under the control of National Clean
Vehicle Action. Also, as an opened city, Guangzhou city has a good development base for the
promotion of the LPG bus, including economic development, technology implementation system
and social environment. Guangzhou is also a coastal city and it has potential multi-sources of
natural gas. Please see the following Figure 9.12.
9.5.2.1 Main Impetus to Promote the Scale Development of LPG bus
1. Solving the Black Smoke problem
As two important components of public transport, buses and taxis shuttles in the city
frequently indicate a low share rate. And because of the poor emission condition, their impacts on
the city environment and residents health are great and direct.
(1) The share of the buses and taxis is only 1% of the city vehicle share, but their emissions
are accounted for about 50%, shown by Guangzhou environmental monitoring data;
(2) According to an environmental protection investigation by social conditions organization
of Guangzhou city, Black smoke is always the most prominent problem and the biggest
environmental health hazard, which was enlisted by Guangzhou residents from 2001-2004. The
rate of residents with a negative opinion on air quality is sharply increasing year by year;
(3) In 2004, an average of about 10,000 vehicles per month received complaints by the
residents for their black smoke emissions. Of the complaints,, more than 5,000 were buses,
accounting for more than half of the total complaints.
2. Transit Priority and Creating the Model City of National Environmental Protection are
two important goals of the Guangzhou city and are promoted powerfully.
(1) In 2003, the goal of substituting the traditional fuels used in bus and taxi for clean fuels in
future 3 years was clearly outlined, and added into the Public Project;
(2) In 2004, the Guangzhou LPG bus project was listed in the summary program of creating
the Model City of National Environmental Protection and became one of the key projects;
(3) Fully promoting the use of LPG across the bus industry, a concept presented to
Guangzhou transport commission, was considered a revolutionary concept for regulating the
energy structure.
9.5.2.2 Basic Conditions for Promoting the LPG Bus in Guangzhou City
1. The solid base: National Clean Vehicle Action
Guangzhou City was listed as one of the 12 pilot cities for National Clean Vehicle Action in
252
1999, and that was the beginning of the clean energy vehicle program in Guangzhou.
Demonstration of the clean energy vehicle initiative is with respect to buses. A one year
experiment using LPG buses was put into operation on 30 buses on route number 12 of the First
Bus Company Good social and environmental results have been received.
In 2001, Guangzhou passed the checking and acceptance of the model city of National 9th
Five-Year Clean Vehicle Action, and it became one of the 16 Main Extending Cities of Clean
Vehicle which was part of the key technology program.
2. New vs. mature technology and the integrated system
The implementation of LNG and CNG vehicles is greatly restricted by the fuel technology,
gas stations construction, vehicle technology, city conditions and so on.
(1) Fuel technology
Compared with other fuels, LPG has more advantages and can satisfy the following
conditions necessary for city buses: short time fuel injection; long miles of continuous
operation; high quality and easy maintenance; proper price, not too high, can be used for
public application;
(2) Gas station construction
Because of the high intensity of the population and buildings, a safe gas station must be
guaranteed. LPG station construction represents some of the most mature technologies used
internationally;
(3) Vehicle technology
The engine requirements of LPG buses had been verified as a mature technology nationally
and internationally, which had also been testified by authoritative institutions many times and been
proved to be safe and credible;
(4) City conditions
Guangzhou is an opened and coastal city which lies in the southeast of China. It has
developed for many years ahead of many other cities. It has good conditions such as multi-sources
of gas supply and a good economic environment. In addition, Guangzhou has warm weather
conditions with the average temperature above 10 centigrade throughout the year.
253
Preponderant technologies
Basic conditions
Integrated system
Main impetus
Policy aiming
Complaints of residents
Promotion by government
Bus
Origin of tail gas
Public
transporta
tion
Taxi
Sedan and
so on
Decomposing the
target
Transit
priority
LPG bus
254
resulting in the following quote, Success and the effect of the clean energy bus program have
demonstrated significance to implementation nationwide. See Figure 9.13.
9.5.3.1 Main Actions of the LPG Bus Implementation
1. Local government: putting emphasis on it and implementing strongly
(1) Setting up a special leading group and the standing coordination body
Under the guidance of Guangzhou municipal committee and the Guangzhou government,
Guangzhou Clean Vehicle Action Coordinated Leading Group was established by several relevant
departments, the function of which is to implement LPG buses. The establishment of the special
leading group insured the implementation.
The technology and security of LPG buses needs to be known and solved in time. In order to
solve these problems, bus companies, engine factories and many other stakeholders were
coordinated to establish a periodical meeting system by Guangzhou Transport Commission. The
purpose of the meeting system is to guarantee LPG sources, the supply of fittings, and so on.
(2) Increasing the intensity of financial support and subsidies
At the beginning of the LPG bus implementation program, the price department approved a
lower price after checking the profit of the gas suppliers in order to ensure the advantage of the
LPG price. Then, at the phase of scale development of the LPG buses, gas prices increased due to
the demand and supply of the market.
(3) Coordinating to construct support facilities
A number of LPG station should be constructed with the implementation of LPG buses, and
one of the toughest problem is choosing their locations. 80% of the location problem has been
solved by relevant organizations coordinated by Guangzhou Transport Commission, which is the
basic condition for the development of LPG buses.
(4) Making and improving relevant policies and regulations
Under the guidance of the concept of transit priority, several organizations and industries
have made many kinds of policies and regulations. In terms of technological regulations, there are
Guangzhou Technological Regulation on the Operation of the Gasoline Bus and Electronic Bus,
Guangzhou Public Transport Regulations on the Use and Refit the LPG Bus. In terms of vehicle
security insurance, there are Guangzhou Regulations on the Vehicle Security of LPG Bus (Try
out), Guangzhou Transport Commission lash-up management counter plan for LPG Bus security
accident (Try out). And, in terms of industrial workers, there is the Guangzhou Coach
Organization Conditions for Industrial Worker in LPG Bus (Try out). All these policies and
regulations facilitate the development of LPG buses institutionally and industrially.
(5) Strengthening the publicity and opinion orientation
255
In the process of implementation of LPG buses, Guangzhou put emphasis on publicity and
opinion orientation through news briefings, LPG buses participating in ceremonies, publicity
pamphlets, VCD and so on. These methods created good public opinion and a strong social base
for the scale development of LPG buses.
specific body
Guangzhou Transport C
ommision
Guangzhou environmen
tal bureau
Guangzhou development
and reform commission
Organization leading
Functions
All parts coordination
256
internationally through technology innovation over time. For example, through breakthroughs
associated with: combustion efficiencies responsible for lowering gas consumption, reduced
engine failure, reduced cost and noise, the gas consumption per hundred kilometers of LPG bus
being reduced to 65 liters from 83 liters in 2003. The gap between the average cost of gas and
traditional fuel has been reduced to 12 per hundred kilometers from 62 per kilometers in
257
2003 and the gap is continuing to shrink. The engine failure of LPG buses of the Guangzhou
nation-owned bus company has reduced no more than 0.84 once per thousand vehicular kilometers
and the maintenance fee reduced to 300-330 per thousand kilometers, solving the technological
problem of LPG for high-powered bus engines.
9.5.4 Policy Assumption and Suggestions about Developing New Energy Buses
9.5.4.1 Integrated Consideration of the Long-term Use of Gasoline and Diesel Vehicles.
Set Key Scientific Areas and Priority Options for the New Energy Vehicle Development in
Mid-term and Long-term.
In the near-term, many kinds of new energy fuels and vehicle technologies will still be
undergoing R&D. Objective and scientific evaluation needs to occur in order to fully comprehend
the global, regional, and local advantages and disadvantages of new energy fuels compared with
traditional fuels such as gasoline and diesel. Traditional fuels, such as gasoline and diesel fuels,
will dominate the market in the near to mid-term though new energy fuels will begin to displace
the traditional fuels in a growing proportion over time.
In conclusion, considering the development phases of different new energy fuels and specific
regional and local environments and requirements, the development of new energy fuels should be
planned as a sustainable system in order to set key priority areas and select effective options for
the proliferation of new energy developments in the near and mid-term.
With respect to the current strategic plan of action, we should position the choice of the
development and deployment pathways for the new energy fuels as alternative strategy. More
significantly and essentially, this will become a long-term insurance policy to the guaranteed
supply of diverse vehicle fuels. Electric vehicles, especially electric buses, should also be
considered as a viable and sustainable new energy transportation option.
Electric power is one of the cleanest energy from the point of end-users and can be
transferred, since it is an energy carrier, to numerous other kinds of energy easily. In China, the
electric power industry has been developed over that past 60 years, and it currently satisfies the
electricity needs of the countrys economic and social development, including the capacity to
support a large volume of electric vehicles. The first bus of our country was fueled by electricity.
Railroad cars and trolleybuses not only played an important role in the a hundred year history of
the bus, but also accumulated very valuable insights and experiences. The technology and
management of electric buses is very mature. Next generation electric buses, like those with supercapacitors and fuel cells, are developing quickly. Through many recent studies, the market
competitiveness of electric vehicles has been significantly enhanced. And the trolley bus or trolley
258
17
Authors:
Pan Kexi, Associate Professor, School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University
Chang Zheng, PhD. Candidate, School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University
259
though it still presents challenges and opportunities with respect to deployment at a large scale.,
Thus, we suggest that a new energy bus fleet organization be created along with unification in
order to reduce the impact on citizens travel. Furthermore, doing this would lay the foundation for
the formal commercial operation of new energy buses.
Public sectors, such as governments, schools, police stations, large exhibitions and so on,
should undertake the role of choosing a new energy vehicle to enhance the awareness of new
energy vehicle options and increase demand for new energy vehicles in the market.
260
(3) Supply comfortable, rapid, convenient and highly efficient multi-level public transport
service:
Rapid node public transport: supply rapid nonstop transit service with low fare among major
traffic nodes; provide service for middle and low income long-distance trip maker.
Traditional lateral public transport: provide short distance and lateral service to support rapid
nodes transport.
Nonstop commute public transport: provide district optimized high quality and prime price
service of point to point nonstop commute service for middle and higher income trip maker
between home and work place.
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263
Introduction
Mobility, as an enabler of access, is an essential part of human life, and the demand for mobility is
becoming stronger in modern society. It is not only a necessary support for economic
development, but also an indispensable element of daily life, communication, world discovery,
and leisure activities. Along with the advancement of human civilization and modern
transportation technologies, high quality mobility is no longer a luxury for the minority, but
provides the majority with unprecedented accessibility and quality of life.
However, associated with the development of mobility, some negative impacts of
transportation arise and these are becoming serious, especially in urban areas. Many metropolitan
areas, e.g. Beijing, suffer from traffic jams, emission pollution, transportation noise, and
unacceptable levels of traffic accidents. It is an ironic and unintended fact that modern
transportation means and measures, deliberately and sophisticatedly fostered by society to
improve the mobilizing quality and comfort, have negative impacts. The need for sustainable
transportation solutions has become urgent.
Unfortunately, the negative impacts of transportation do not only arise from transportation
itself and therefore can not be removed within transportation dimension only. There are some
internal, essential, and systematic reasons and principles that cause the unfavorable transportation
impacts. The multi-dimensional nature of transportation determines that the problem needs
collaboration among different fields and can only be addressed through inter-disciplinary
approaches.
It was in realizing this that the Sustainable Urban Mobility Project for Chinese Cities
sponsored by BP (SUMO as acronym) was initiated to involve researchers from the following six
different disciplines: urban planning, transportation planning, energy, environment, automobile
technology, and public policy. These six teams were united, aiming to re-think the connections
between transportation and each discipline, not only from the sole perspective of each discipline
but also from an integrated, comprehensive, and panoramic perspective based on the
understanding of other disciplines, and to find essential and well-balanced solutions for
sustainable urban mobility.
In this chapter, study from energy system for sustainable urban mobility is conducted as an
integral part of the whole project. Endeavor has been made to avoid the outdated framework of
studying the energy supply for transportation only from technical level with conventional logic
and to look at transportation energy only from within the transportation energy dimension.
Motivated by new findings from inter-disciplinary perspective, we want to fully understand the
systematic and intrinsic connections between energy and mobility, to scrutinize the transportation
264
energy supply under the whole scheme of national energy system, and to reveal the fundamental
and effective ideas and solutions for supporting the sustainable development of urban
transportation.
The chapter is arranged as following: section 1.1 is the introduction to describe the objectives
of the study. Section 1.2 elucidates the overall national energy pictures and dilemmas which
transportation energy has to face to. Section 1.3 analyzes the essential and intrinsic linkage
between energy and transportation and consequently deduces the paradigm for matching energy
with transportation. Section 1.4 discusses the criteria for judging the future trend of transportation
energy and comments possible options. Section 1.5 introduced the methodologies that are
necessary to accomplish the ideas proposed in the previous sections, including optimization of
transportation energy technology portfolio and dynamic planning of infrastructures.
10.2
Meanwhile, the Oil Import Dependency (OID) continued to increase and concerns on energy
security have become more and more serious.
Contrast to the huge value of Chinas GDP 19 and total energy consumption, either GDP or
energy consumption per capita are still quite low compared with the world average level due to its
large population. According to international experience, the energy consumption per capita usually
increases along with the GDP per capita(Figure 10.4)before it reaches 20 thousand dollars. That
implies that Chinas energy consumption per capita and total energy consumption still have a big
headroom for increasing and will bring in more severe challenges for energy supply.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC), China Statistical Yearbook (Unit: tce/10,000 yuan GDP @2000 price)
Figure 10.2 Change of GDP and total energy consumption of China between
1991 and 2007
19
According to International Monetary Foundations (IMF) world GDP (PPP) comparison table in 2007, and IEAs
World Energy Outlook 2007, China is the second largest economy in the world, only secondary to USA.
266
Figure 10.3 Comparisons of the actual energy consumption and the planning
objectives
Figure 10.4 International comparison of energy consumption per capita and GDP per capita
(1980-2002)
Column C: China Energy flow chart in 2005
The energy flow chart of China is shown in Figure 10.5. The figure clearly states Chinas primary energy
supply and its sources and the distribution of energy consumption in different end-use sectors ( Li Zheng, 2006.).
Obviously, the industry and construction are the most important energy consumers, and they consume more than
75% of total annual energy consumption.
267
268
With the rapid growth of energy consumption, Chinas environment problem becomes more
and more severe. There are several constituent for the air pollution in China: Firstly, the
conventional pollution (NOx, SO2 and dust) is still a major problem and 80% of these pollutants
come from fossil fuel combustion, especially from direct coal combustion; secondly, in megapolis
areas, the soot-type pollution has changed into a combination of soot and vehicle exhausted gas
pollution with the latter accounting for over 80% CO emission and over 40% NO x emission (Cao
Xianghong, 2005; Li Xinmin, 2005); the HC emission and aspirable particulate matters emitted by
vehicle internal combustion engines (ICE) are also big sources of air pollution in cities. Detailed
discussion on environmental pollution issue can be referred to the chapter on environment in this
book.
Table 10.1 The amount of main pollutants in china in reference case.
Unit: million ton
1990
2005
2015
2030
Environmental
permitted emission
NOx
15
19
21
19
PM2.5
12
14
12
SO2
19
26
31
30
16
Source: National statistical bureau, China Statistical Yearbook; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007
269
Table 10.2 Top five countries for energy-related CO2 emissions in the baseline scenario.
Total amount
2005
Per capita
2015
2030
2005
2015
2030
Gt
rank
Gt
rank
Gt
rank
USA
5.8
6.4
6.9
19.5
19.6
19
China
5.1
8.6
11.4
3.9
6.2
7.9
Russia
1.5
1.8
10.7
13.3
16
Japan
1.2
1.3
1.2
India
1.1
1.8
3.3
1.4
2.3
Currently 80% of CO2 in China is emitted from coal combustion, among which 50% is
produced from coal power generation. The CO2 emission of transportation is only 1/6 that of the
coal power generation, and this proportion is estimated to be between 1/4 and 1/5 in 2050.
Concentrated and large scale coal utilization sector, such as power generation, therefore, should be
the starting point and key strength for CO2 reduction in China.
Table 10.3 Energy-related CO2 emissions by sectors in the baseline scenario (million ton).
Sector
1990
2005
2010
2015
2030
2005-2030*
Power generation
652
2500
3589
4450
6202
3.70%
Industry
800
1430
2014
2186
2373
2.00%
Transport
121
337
486
664
1255
5.40%
479
468
550
622
715
1.70%
Other***
191
356
585
709
903
3.70%
***Includes other
Globally, the main driving forces of future energy development include the growth of energy
demand, energy reserve and the capability of energy supply, energy technology, climate change,
consideration and decision making on energy security by every country.
Under the main rhythm of pursuing peace and economic development all over the world, the
growth of energy demand seems to be an incontestable fact (IEA, 2007). Fossil energy, which now
is the major energy used in the world, will still have enough reserves before 2050. But the problem
comes from the unbalanced geological distribution of fossil energy resource, with the main
resources centralized in a few energy production areas. The uneven situation of oil, which is the
most important to global energy development, is illustrated in Figure 10.7 (IEA, 2005). It shows
270
that there is still big potential for both conventional and unconventional reserves, and reserve band
of oil with economical exploitation will continue to expand with the improvement of exploitation
technologies and promotion of the rising-up oil price.
Figure 10.7 Conventional and unconventional oil reserves and the economic price
So it could be summarized that: in global scope, the most important driving forces for future
energy development should be energy security and climate change because of the inevitability of
energy demand growth, relatively abundant fossil fuel reserves, the affiliation between the
development of energy technologies and the strategy and policy of different countries for energy
development, that is, the trend of future global energy development is mainly determined by the
attitude, emphasis, and strength taken by each country toward energy security and climate change
problems. The problem of the development of future global energy supply could be summarized as
three questions: (1) How to produce and supply energy? (2) Who produce and supply energy? (3)
Where to produce and supply energy? The essence of these questions at least includes the
following:
Firstly, how to select and exploit the energy resources: should we continue using and
depending on conventional fossil energy, or actively diversify the energy resources by increasing
the utilization of nuclear and renewable energy, especially the oil replaceable alternative energy to
reduce OID?
Secondly, how to possess and utilize global energy resources: should we leave things as
they are, which may encounter China with mostly possible energy supply disruption due to the
variation and fluctuation of global energy market, or go-out actively to participate the exploitation
and supply of global energy resource to strengthen our position in influencing and pricedetermining the global energy market?
Thirdly, how to balance domestic energy production and import energy: though it could
reduce OID and improve oil security by using relatively abundant local resources to produce
alternative fuel such as coal to liquid, we still need to balance near-term urgent demand and longterm sustainability, and the benefit and the cost, and finally to build a balanced relationship
between the foreign and native energy.
271
It should be mentioned that the rapidly rising oil price and changing climate are the new
situations and new problems for every country, the strategy and direction of future energy
development are still in an exploring and researching stage for most countries, and there is still not
a final conclusion. But it could be concluded: firstly, in near term, at least before 2030, the fossil
fuel dominant energy structure could not be radically changed because of the huge inertia of the
energy system transition and the induced difficulties for direction change; secondly, at the same
time, the development of low carbon economy and related energy technologies will be an inerrable
long-term trend due to the worries of energy security and the underlying economic risk to reduce
CO2 emission passively in the future. Following this long-term trend, nuclear, hydro and other
renewable energy could be developed fast together with fossil energy.
2
For China, although the long-term energy development trend is also strongly affected by the
willingness and actions taken for the energy security and climate change problems, the much more
urgent problems are rapid growth of energy demand, tensed-up energy supply, and severe
conventional pollutions in the near term. The interlacing of near and long term problems results in
the unique complexity of energy problems in China. Therefore, the correct strategy and direction
of energy development leading to sustainability could only be made based on a deep
understanding of the essence of Chinese energy problems. The author suggested that the
understanding of the energy problems of China needs to follow the clues described below.
Primary stage of
industrialization
energy intensity
(energy consumption per GDP)
Accelerating stage of
industrialization
Matured stage of
industrialization
Peaking up
Post-industrialization
Coming down
Evidence shows that the economic growth of China has entered the special stage which is
characterized with high energy consumption with accelerating industrialization and expanding of
heavy and chemical industries. Referring to international experience, the acceleration of
industrialization could possibly continue to 2020 or even later, and energy intensity could be kept
high due to common principle in this stage shown in Figure 10.8 The trend of energy intensity
change will heavily depend on the transition of economic structure and adoption of more efficient
technologies. Industrial policies and energy policies which emphasize energy saving are badly
needed to shorten the period and to reduce the peak value for energy intensity to climb and to push
China on the track of new industrialization.
Besides, other important characteristics of economic stage of China are the unbalanced
272
regional development and huge gap of the living standard between urban and rural areas. From
this aspect, the space for energy demand growth is still very large as the economic growth is far
from saturated.
273
Plan period (Xu Dingming, 2007), the total capital investment of energy infrastructure of China in
the 15 years before 2020 should be 10 trillion RMB, which has not yet included the internal
energy infrastructure in cities. As estimated by IEA, the accumulated capital investment of energy
infrastructure in China during 2006-2030 will be 10~15 trillion RMB at 2006's price, which is
more than Chinas total GDP in 2006 (IEA, 2007). And in the same period, the total accumulated
cost of annually importing 120 million ton oil will be 10 trillion RMB if assuming the average oil
price to be 100 dollars.
Thus, it can be seen how important a correct and foreseeing planning of energy infrastructure
is. And the economic risk brought by insufficient use or abandon of infrastructure should be well
recognized because it may bring disaster of a growing GDP without a growing wealth
As Chinas oil import dependence increases, the source of imported oil becomes more
concentrated. The increasingly crowded oil transport channels and key oil accesses with foreign
military attempting to control bring a serious threat to the security of oil transport corridors, which
makes China concern much more on the energy security. Moreover, the soaring oil price has
substantive impact on Chinese economy, this reinforces the intense atmosphere. Foreign scholars
did many researches on the intention of Chinese energy security and the reasons of
implementation of go out strategy. It can be summarized as the following (Kenneth Lieberthal,
Mikkal Herberg, 2006):
Being suspicious to the international energy market, China believes that the energy
market is manipulated by the cunning international oil companies, western developed countries,
and the oil-export countries which are instable and difficult to trust.
The oil market is dominated by United States and US will firmly grasp the weakness
of Chinese energy system: U.S. navy controls the key marine energy transport channels, U.S. has
tremendous power in the global oil industry and organizations, and U.S. can exert strong influence
on world oil price and trade flow.
In the world oil market, China plays a relatively weak and newcomers role, and
China has to catch up and surpass. However, the global oil organization and the major oil
companies safeguard the interests of western developed countries, excluding China.
To a certain extent, the comments above reveal Chinas concerns on energy security and
initiative strategic efforts to solve the problem despite the authors US position.
In fact, the efforts to ensure oil security are not only reflected in the go out strategy, but also
in internal policy, such as the development of coal liquefaction, bio-ethanol, and other alternative
fuels. Since the development of alternative fuels can not only play a positive role for energy
security, but also have side effects, such as higher cost, more energy consumption, and sometimes
more CO2 emission. Therefore, it is obvious that the energy security concerns and the resulting
intention to develop alternative fuels have important impacts on Chinas future energy.
Column B: Literature survey of energy security
1) Daniel Yergin: The basic contents of energy security20
20
Daniel Yergin. Chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), he is one of the famous authorities on energy security.
274
At the hearing entitled Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Oil Dependence held by the
committee on foreign affairs, US house of representatives on March 22rd, 2007, Daniel Yergin explained his latest
understanding of the fundamentals of energy security, which mainly includes:
1. Diversification
2. Resilience a security margin
3. High-quality and timely information
4. Collaboration among consumers and between consumers and producers
5. Expand IEA System to include China and India
6. Include infrastructure and supply chain
7. Robust markets and flexibility
8. Renewed emphasis on efficiency for both energy and climate reasons
9. Investment flows
10. R&D, technological advance, and new technologies
Compared with his speech at the hearing in 2003, there are too newly-added important concerns: (1) the
expansion of energy security concerns, including the entire energy supply chain and the infrastructure protection
into the framework of energy security; (2) absorbing China and India into the global network of trade and
investment, rather than allowing them to lean to the direction of mercantilism development strategy.
Daniel Yergin, in his speech, also made some comments on new technology and alternative energy. He
pointed out that: (1) one of the most important impacts may come from the application of biotechnology in energy
area; (2) we should take an optimistic view to conventional and alternative energy research and development, at the
same time, we can not confuse future commitment with the new technologies which have been already competitive
and can be widely applied. Significant impact can be made on the security of national energy supply system only
by relying on the latter and through appropriate infrastructures.
2) Kenneth Lieberthal: Chinas Search for Energy Security: Implications for U.S. Poilcy(Kenneth Lieberthal,
Mikkal Herberg, 2006)21
To some extent, this article reflects the US policy-markers understanding, focal points, concerns and logic to
the rapid development of China and its impacts to the United States. This study assists to understand U.S energy
policy, which may improve the chances for the United States and China to build upon their objective mutual
interests in energy security.
The study is divided into four sections. The first section analyzes the internal and external implications of
Chinas so-called go-out strategy and explains why energy security has been taking such an important strategic
seat for Chinese leaders. Section two examines the apparent mercantilism character of the go-out strategy and
concludes that the go-out strategy is much less government-leading, consistent, and strategic than generally
assumed by the U.S. policymakers. The third section assesses the validity and salience of the main concerns that
have emerged among U.S. policymakers regarding the impact on vital U.S. interests from Chinas global energy
21
Kenneth Lieberthal is a political science professor at the University of Michigan, a well-known expert on Chinese issues in U.S. and a
senior director of national Security Council for Asian affairs.
275
search, and splits the issues into energy market impacts and geopolitical impacts. The fourth section outlines the
major challenges to a more constructive dialogue between the United States and China on energy security issues
and proposes specific U.S. policy initiatives to enhance trust in the energy sector and to strengthen multilateral,
regional, and bilateral cooperation on energy issues.
3) Dennis Blair Smooth Sailing The worlds Shipping Lanes Are Safe(Dennis Blair, Kenneth Lieberthal,
2007)22
This article points out that: although the dangers facing long distance oil tanker carriers haunt leaders worldwidely and animate the discussions about naval procurement, in reality the risks for the maritime flows of oil are
far smaller than what is commonly assumed. Firstly, tankers are much less vulnerable than conventional wisdom
holds. Secondly, limited regional conflicts would unlikely lead to seriously traffic, and terroristic attacks against
shipping would have even less economic effect. Thirdly, only the United States has the power to seriously disrupt
oil shipping, but the United States is more likely to protect the shipping on the high seas than to endanger it.
Fourthly, if any country attempted to interfere with international shipping, a coalition would be inevitably formed
to maintain manageable damage to oil deliveries and the global economy. Finally, although all-out wars between
major powers can seriously disrupt maritime shipping, chances of such a conflict happened in the foreseeable
future are fat. This article is important to help us to deeply understand the importance of maritime oil transport
security.
4) Michael C. Lynch The Nature of Energy Security23
The core content of this paper can be summarized from the following four aspects: (1) energy security is not a
long-term interruption, but only a short-term one, and the nature of the energy security problem is not short of
supply but economic; (2) the oil crisis will certainly affect not only some specific countries, but all over the world,;
(3) strategic reserves are the first and primary weapon against oil crises; (4) the role of alternative fuels in
enhancing energy security is rather small, the planning of the development of alternative fuels should be based on
comprehensive benefit and loss analyses. Obviously, spending more money to develop alternative fuels for less
loss due to oil disruption is not reasonable and acceptable.
Compared with the relatively loose energy and environment condition enjoyed by developed
countries in their industrialization process, China now is facing multi-constraints such as tight
energy supply, strict standard of environmental protection and more and more loud voice for CO2
reduction internationally. The industrialization process and energy development of China cannot
but face these multi-constraints. Under the precondition of supporting economic growth, the
development of energy system of China should at least satisfy the following three strategic
objectives:
1)
Energy saving and energy cost lowering: minimize energy consumption, and at the
same time, minimize the cost of energy supply by continuously lowering the investment and
operation cost of energy system
2)
Energy security: minimize OID to avoid an economic risk of oil crisis or short term
disruptions of oil supply
22
23
276
3)
Low carbon: minimize CO2 emission to reduce internationally political and
economical pressure, get looser environment for economic growth and better prestige of being a
responsible country
It is not difficult to find out among the objectives the inconsistency and confliction which are
as follows:
1)
The conflict between energy security objective and the other two objectives: the
most direct method to reduce OID is to develop alternative fuel. Based on business-as-usual
technologies, coal to liquids is the only way to replace oil in large scale. But it will reduce energy
efficiency (about 50%, lower than oil refinery which has 90% efficiency), increase energy cost and
more CO2 emission24. And in a long-term consideration, large scale coal to liquids will bring extra
coal consumption which will influence long-term energy security because coal is the main fossil
fuel China needs and could depend on for longer time scale.
2)
The conflict between low carbon objective and energy cost objective: because of
the high emission factor of coal, low carbon objective request the development of low carbon
energy such as nuclear, hydro and other renewable energy. But generally these low carbon energy
have higher energy cost, and large scale development will definitely increase a lot the capital
investment and cost of energy supply.
3)
The conflict among low carbon, energy saving and energy cost lowering, and
energy security objective: carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is expected to be the most
feasible way of realizing low carbon objective. But it will increase the cost of energy supply a lot
to conflict with lowering energy cost objective, and also increase energy consumption a lot to
conflict with energy saving objective and long-term energy security objective, which is illustrated
in Column C ( Figure 10.9).
The multi-constraints and conflicted multi-objectives of energy development decide that:
China could only seek a balance between these multi-objectives of energy strategy, and it should
always be well recognized in studying and understanding energy problems of China.
Column C: China Energy dilemma: lowering demand vs. energy security & CO2 reduction
(1) Oil Import Dependence (OID) decrease causes higher fossil fuel use and carbon emission;
(2) More Non-fossil fuel use could decrease fossil fuel use and carbon emission
(3) CCS can further decrease carbon emission but cause more fossil fuel use.
24
As roughly estimated, making 1 million ton coal to liquids will consume 3.3 million ton coal (calculated by 43% energy efficiency),
increase 6 million ton CO2 emission(emission factor of coal is assumed to be 2.72 ton CO2/tce, oil is 2.08 tone CO 2/tce)
277
55
Fossil energy
consumption
50
45
Carbon
emission
40
35
30
25
20
30%
40%
50%
OID
60%
70%
278
carrier).
Energy carrier
electricity
Transportation fuel
Petro-chemicals
Incumbent energy
Coal power
Oil products
Oil products
It is comprehensible that incumbent energy will stay as the majority of energy fleet for quite
a long time. On one side, they are still the main choice of new added energy devices; in another
aspect, the incumbent energy devices constructed within the last decade will be in service until
2030 or 2040 because they are designed to last for decades. Therefore, improving the efficiency
and cost of incumbent energy should still be the emphasis of energy development in near term and
even in long term. If departing from this emphasis to pursue new energy that may be promising in
the future, it will virtually not only waste time but also bring the loss of energy and economy.
But this does not mean giving up the R&D and deployment of new technologies, or giving up
the efforts to develop alternative energy to adjust energy structure. For the development of
alternative energy, the key is to comprehend its strategic purpose and position, and develop it
orderly and dynamically balanced with incumbent energy. The author suggests dividing alternative
energy into two strategic sorts: expedient alternative and desirable alternative. And their definition
is as follows:
Expedient energy: alternative energy that could reduce the consumption of energy
resource or emission in some level but may bring important negative effects at the same time. For
example, coal to liquids could reduce the consumption of oil resource but increase a lot of CO2
emission and coal consumption.
Desirable energy: alternative energy that could be used in long-term and has less
negative effect to resource and environment. A good example is renewable energy which has
continuously resource and near zero emission in its life time, e.g. wind.
The list of incumbent energy and two sorts of alternative energy in power generation and
transportation sector is shown in Table 10.5. The connotative concept and meaning in it is:
Improving the efficiency and cost of incumbent energy should always be prioritized
while developing alternative energy step by step is also important
279
Table 10.5 Incumbent energy and alternative energy in power generation and transportation
sector.
Incumbent
energy
Power
Coal steam
generation
power
power
Transportation
Vehicle oil
(ICE)
Figure 10.10 Illustation of enegy security framework and position of alternative fuel
In a narrow sense, energy security is equal to oil security. But it is unilateral to only take OID
as the criterion of energy security. Therefore new concept and systematic theory of energy security
should be built up now in China.
Figure 10.10 shows the national framework of energy security suggested by the author, and it
shows all the influencing factors and their interactions. It could be observed from this figure:
energy security is a complex system with elements of politics, economy, military, transportation
and operation; there are lots of measures to secure energy supply; alternative fuel is only a new
and less effectual method, and it could only benefit energy security slowly and in long-term but
can not solve short term disruption of oil supply and rising oil price.
Therefore, to exploit unconventional oil reserves, stabilize international market, diversify
supply channel, build up strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), and improve energy efficiency are still
the main methods to secure oil supply. In fact, oil import countries could not really depart from
global oil market: they could not replace all oil import by alternative fuel, and on the other hand,
global oil market could not isolate and exclude a country unless extreme situation such as war or
embargo happens. The existence of global oil market should be the basic insurance for oil import
280
country. To secure oil supply and to stabilize global oil market together should be the basic
strategy of all oil import countries.
It could be conclude that: though lowering OID could reduce the insecurity of energy supply,
it could not really or totally realize energy security; to take part in and utilize global oil market, to
promote international collaboration to maintain the existence of global oil market and stabilize it
should be the basic method to secure energy supply for each country. So it is urgent now to change
the traditional concept of energy security that is only based on lowering OID, and to build up a
new concept and a systematic theory of energy security. And the key is to coordinate traditional
methods such as stabilizing global oil market and some new methods.
4
The main methods to reduce CO2 emission include: energy saving, developing low carbon
energy and applying CCS. Because the economic cost and resource consumption of these methods
are different, and so are their effects to the development of economy and energy, the strategy of
CO2 reduction should only be established in light of the concrete situation of China and we need to
differentiate the significance of each method.
Among them, energy saving should be the prioritized in CO 2 reduction, and it is a regretless
choice which is also in accordance with all other strategic objectives of energy development.
Besides, developing low carbon energy is another method which should be put forward actively to
accelerate the whole energy system transiting toward low carbon direction. Here low carbon
energy indicate nuclear, hydro, wind and other renewable energy. Though developing low carbon
energy may greatly increase the energy cost, it must be paid to meet the external criteria of
development of society and economy. And the cost is possible to be controlled on an acceptable
level if we carefully design and dynamically adjust the pace and amount of developing low carbon
energy.
CCS has great potential to further reduce CO2 besides energy saving and low carbon energy.
But as mentioned before, it will not only increase the energy cost but also consume much more
energy to influence long-term energy security. Furthermore; it should be mentioned CCS
technology is not yet mature enough and has uncertainties in reliability and effective application.
Based on current level of existing technology and quite limited experience of R&D and
demonstration, it is hard to be proved that CO 2 sequestrated in the geological structure will be safe
and will not leak in the next 1000 years 25 (IPCC, 2007). Therefore, though China should actively
develop CCS to make insurance for CO 2 reduction in the future, it should confirmedly put forward
energy saving and developing low carbon energy at first while taking CCS as the last measure.
With large scale and concentrated CO2 emission, power sector should firstly transit into the
low carbon direction. It seems that even though energy saving and developing of low carbon
energy could reduce CO2 a lot, the total CO2 emission of power sector will still grow up quickly
before 2030 because of rapid growing demand of electricity. If it could not meet the requirement
of CO2 reduction in the future, China cannot but develop CCS to further reduce CO 2 emission of
power sector. And that is why China should still insist on the R&D and demonstration of CCS.
25
Here not leak means the accumulated amount of CO2 leakage in a certain period is lower than a certain fraction
of the total amount of CO2 sequestrated, 1% for example
281
of
overall
energy
status
to
urban
Releive the pressure on oil supply by energy saving and diversifying fuel types
Driven by rapid industrialization and urbanization, the population and per capita income of
Chinese cities are growing up rapidly and result in the rapid growth of the demand of urban
mobility and proportion of motorization. Chinese cities, especially metropolises, have entered a
process of rapid motorization which brings rapid growth of vehicle population and energy demand
of urban transportation.
Though industry is still the major sector of energy consumption and transportation only
occupies ca. 10% in the total primary energy consumption of China (Li Zheng, 2006),
transportation sector consumes nearly 3/4 of oil products such as gasoline, diesel and kerosene,
and accounts for 40% in the total oil consumption in calories. In the future, the amount of oil
consumption and proportion in oil consumption of transportation will be likely to continue its
growth, and it will bring severe oil security problem and shortage of liquid fuels. It requires urban
transportation not only to promote energy saving, but also to diversify fuel types to change the
situation of only depending on oil products.
2
areas
With the rapid growth of vehicle population, the air pollution in big cities has changed from
mainly soot-type to mixed type combined by coal burning and vehicle exhausted gas. The vehicle
exhausted gas has become the main source of NOx emission, and the more and more severe traffic
congestion further aggravates the problem. The capacity to control the pollution by vehicle
exhausted gas has become an important criterion urban transportation must satisfy.
3 To implement low carbon mobility step by step to actively respond to global
climate change problem
Though urban transportation will not be the main source of GHG emission whether for today
or for the future, it does not mean urban transportation should do nothing about it. In the
development of urban transportation and urban energy, low carbon should always be taken as the
final strategic objective (WBCSD, 2004), and energy saving and developing alternative fuel
should be actively put forward to reduce the CO 2 emission of urban transportation step by step.
Considering the cost of developing new technology through large scale alternation of technology,
or construction of energy infrastructure, expedient alternatives such as hybrid technology should
be the main choice in near term, and low carbon energy not depending on fossil fuel should be the
long-term choice to realize smooth transition of energy system in the future.
The requirement of overall energy status to the development of urban transportation to
pursuing urban sustainable mobility could be summarized into 4 objectives in order of their
relative importance: (1) Firstly, realize sustainable urban mobility from three layers and two
aspects (as mentioned in above chapter of this book list), to build up an energy-saving
transportation system; (2) Secondly, strictly control conventional pollution; (3) Thirdly, develop
expedient alternative in a certain scale, and diversify vehicle fuel types; (4) Finally, develop
desirable low carbon energy to realize low carbon urban mobility. This illustrated in Figure 10.11.
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Figure 10.11 Requirement of overall energy status to the development of urban transporation
10.3
development
10.3.1 Bi-directional harmonizing and multi-disciplinary cooperating
The characteristics of the conventional urban transport energy supply and demand mode can be
simply summarized as a one-way demand from the demand side without any feedback restraints.
This one-way relation can be described in detail from the following aspects:
1)From quantity aspect: adequate total and compositional energy supply for the
correspondent demand needs to be satisfied;
2)From space and time aspect: suitable vehicle fuels with easy and convenient accessibility at
the node of the energy supply network over a wide range is required;
3)From fuel supply aspect: fuels from oil resource, such as gasoline and diesel, are requested.
Superficially, the relation between the demand and supply described above seems very
reasonable. As one of the key supporting elements of the transport system, to provide adequate,
timely, and suitable fuels as requested is the vocation for energy supply system. This is a right case
for now, so is for the future. However, energy supply tension, especially the growing oil supply
tension, is an inevitable reality, which obviously hinders and impairs the sustainable development
of urban transport. Therefore, the problem is not about satisfying the requirement to form a
balance between supply and demand itself, but about how to improve the balance. The traditional
one-way demand relation between the transport demand and energy supply ignores or is not fully
aware of the necessity of changing and improving the demand side, resulting in a rapid growth of
transport demand. This not only puts a huge pressure on the energy supply, but also intensifies the
dependence on specified category of fuel, reducing the potential of energy supply to actively
adjust to the demand scale.
Now, it is time to modulate the one-way demand convention order to achieve a sustainable
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development of transport. In addition to improve the conversion efficiency and energy, to enlarge
the supply scale, and diversify the fuel categories from the energy supply side, the demand side
should also control the demand of quantity and compound growth and improve the adaptability of
vehicle on different fuels. This is so called bi-directional harmonizing and multi-disciplinary
cooperating in the present work.
Obviously, bi-directional harmonizing sets the boundary to both transport energy demand
and supply sides: the energy supply needs to meet the demand and simultaneously, the demand
needs to actively adjust itself to release the energy supply pressure. Multi-disciplinary
cooperating includes more stakeholders of the transport energy system to deliberately take
environmental protection, energy security, CO2 mitigation and other main sustainable development
goals into account, find a comprehensive solution with the complete consideration of the urban
planning, transport planning, energy development, environmental protection, automobile
technology, and other aspects of the foundation, laws, problems, and constraints, as well as
efficiently improve the bidirectional relationship between the supply and demand.
To reduce the total amount of energy supply, the transport demand side can make efforts at
least from the following three aspects: The first aspect is to carry out multi-dimension urban and
transport planning including national, regional, urban or even community level, to systemically
avoid unnecessary transport demand, thus reducing the total amount of transport energy demand;
the second is to promote the public transport system by modifying the transportation mode to
systemically reduce the energy intensity; the third is to reasonably and efficiently design, plan and
manage the transport network, reducing unnecessary energy consumption by improving the traffic
condition.
In regard to the vehicle energy resource expansion, it is necessary to develop cleaner
alternative fuels and the matching technology for vehicles.
In terms of energy services quality improvement, it is necessary to build a strategic and
commercial oil reserve system and emergency response mechanism at the national, regional and
urban level to ensure the energy security, as well as continuously improve the quality of transport
fuels with required vehicle technologies.
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dynamic development.
As described previously, energy supply and services can not exist without infrastructures. The
construction of the infrastructure needs huge economic and energy cost which is a significant part
of the total cost. Therefore, it will not only cause a big social wealth loss, but also a huge energy
loss, if the planning or construction of the energy infrastructures can not accomplish a permanent
application. From this aspect, the development strategy of urban transport energy should not only
concern energy carriers and their conversion and end-use technologies, but also the economic and
energy cost of the infrastructure construction.
Essentially, energy supply for sustainable transport is to select and identify the applicable
energy technology assembles and their transitional developing scheme; and the criteria in judging
the possible options is to evaluate the sustainability of these combinations by taking all the social
and economic development into account from life cycle aspects. Here, the sustainability has been
endowed with more substantive meanings, and it can be defined generally to be all the life cycle of
social and economic costs to accomplish the chosen plan. For quantification, it can be interpreted
as the economic costs to realize the specific scenario, which targets to fulfill the demand for
energy service from unified social production and life standard, for environmental and health
quality, for energy security, for climate change, and for other socio-economic development
objectives. Obviously, an optimal solution should be able to minimize the socio-economic costs
and fulfill the requirements of smooth transition to the sustainable energy system. This is
essentially a multi-objective optimization problem; hence, in the present book it is abstracted as a
basic principle for sustainable transport energy development: system optimization, smooth
transition.
It needs to be pointed out that it is difficult to achieve the ideal optimization with many
uncertainties, but upholding the basic idea for system optimization is always useful and necessary
in energy planning for urban transport development.
10.4
285
Currently, the two resource-oriented pathways will probably exist simultaneously in a long
period. However, oil-derived fuels, considering the quantity, will still be the major energy carriers
in the urban transport energy system based on the following three considerations.
(1) Before 2030, world has sufficient oil resource, and China still has some potentiall to
increase domestic oil production;
As shown in Figure 10.13, the global reserves of crude oil, natural gas and coal resources are
still adequate, especially when considering the potential of oil and gas resources and the nonconventional crude oil and gas resources.
Data resourceWorld Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review2005, BP estimates
286
Statistic data from the Ministry of Land and Resources show that the crude oil reserves of
China reaches 89.5 billion tons up to 2007, among which the quantity of extractable reserves reach
25.5 billion tons. However, the approval rate is only 35%, which means there is big potential for
China oil resources exploitation.
(2) There are considerable constraints in developing non oil-derived fuels
As shown above, resistance still exists in the substitute fuels development, because the
development of substitute fuels is not only a fuel producing process, but also a complicated system
project which has crucial interaction with resource, technology, environment, infrastructure, as
well as the social and economic development mode. Any decision and policy on substitute fuels
will significantly influence the social and economic development mode, together with huge
investments and social and economic activities.
Currently, Chinas primary alternative fuel options for vehicles are coal-based, biomassbased, and NG-based fuels, etc. These different alternative fuels have their own advantages and
disadvantages. However, there has not been an alternative fuel that is definitely better than the
conventional fuels such as gasoline and diesel. The overall development status of vehicle
alternative fuels is a passive situation and the development is mainly determined by the
concerns of energy security and needs to address climate change.
Although there are certain social and environmental benefits, restricted by both economic
cost and available resource, the prospect of bio-fules, especially the first generation bio-fuels, can
not be that promising. Currently, restriction order to the development of the first generation biofuels, such as grain-derived ethanol, has been issued by the National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) to avoid the competitions for land resources and food resources. The
technology of second generation bio-fuels is still immature, which would need 10 to 15 years of
R&D (Dolf, Fridtjof, 2005). Also, it would be quite unpractical to develop large-scale NG-based
vehicle alternative fuels due to lack of NG resource for China.
(3) Energy infrastructure has far-reaching impacts on future energy consumption mode of
urban transportation.
The transportation infrastructures are very intensive in urban areas, which need very huge
initial investment and large transformation cost and will have far-reaching impacts on the
development of urban transport energy. Although China is vigorously promoting the development
of vehicle alternative fuels, within the next two to three decades, oil-based vehicle fuels will
continue to play a dominant role in urban transportation, determined by the facts that the
conventional auto industry has a huge basic structure which relies heavily on oil-based fuels, and
that there are a large number of oil infrastructures still under construction.
As mentioned, oil-based vehicle fuels will still be the major urban transport fuels for China,
which determines that the internal combustion engine technology will continue to be the basic
vehicle power technology in the future. Therefore, the future energy-saving technology for vehicle
power system should focus on continuously developing and optimizing the conventional internal
combustion engine, and improving its energy efficiency. In the development of new alternative
fuels, it is expected that those compatible with the existing oil-based fuel infrastructures will have
the priority, such as coal to oil, ethanol blended fuel, and methanol blended fuel, etc. Alternative
287
fuels that need independent infrastructures will more likely be developed in regions with
advantages in resources, such as LPG, CNG, LNG, and so on. In long term, pure electric and
rechargeable hybrid vehicles have a bright future, as they can use the widespread existing power
grid as their backing, although the development still depends mainly on vehicle technology
breakthroughs.
Desirable alternative
Gasoline
Coal-derived fuels
Renewable electricity
Diesel
Renewable hydrogen
NG-derived fuels
LPG
Technology: Although the technology for small scale CTL is well proven, there are big
challenges to enlarge it to industrial scale.
Environmental: CTL project will consume 8 tons of water for each ton of oil product
output, while most of China's coal-rich provinces are short-ofwater.
288
10.4.2.2 Biofuels
Although China regards biofuel as an essential and strategic component of the secure economic
and diversified energy policies, concerns about its impacts on sufficient food supply and
biodiversity have actually slowed its development. The so-called second generation biofuels,
which can be made from Non-food raw materials, are calling more attention and expected to play
289
an important role in the future, because they are able to use a wider range of biomass feed stocks
without competing with food production.
Nevertheless, challenges may still remain before the second-generation biofuels can be used
in vehicle application. Up to date, the technology is not mature enough and key technology
breakthroughs are necessary to obtain higher economic- and energy-efficiency. Meanwhile, the
commercialization of second-generation biofuels will also increase the demand of the available
biomass. Cultivating energy crops on set-aside and non-cultivated land will help, but this wont be
sufficient to fulfill all the demand with the available technology. In this regard, biotechnology
could offer a solution by increasing land productivity as well as crop quality, which means more
biomass output per hectare and more fermentable carbohydrates or higher oil content per unit
biomass. As shown in Figure 10.14, the production of the miscanthus cultivated by biotechnology
yielded 17.5 tons per acre, a very large number.
Biofuels are regarded as very good candidates that help reduce both Chinas oil import
dependence and CO2 emission. However, the actual amount of CO 2 emission reduction achievable
by a biofuel largely depends on the detailed processes of the whole life, since energy is required in
raw material growing and harvesting, biofuel converting and distributing. Life-cycle energy
consumption and CO2 emission from biofuels should be thoroughly investigated.
290
quality. Therefore, NG-derived fuels should be developed in an appropriate scale in some cities
with rich natural gas reserve and in light of this, a large scale spread could be very difficulty.
Moreover, higher cost and fewer filling stations limit the wide usage of CNG in China.
10.4.2.4 Electricity
Electric vehicles have been regarded as a clear strategic direction of powertrain transition all over
the world. They are particularly suitable for used in urban area. It is an opportunity to develop
electric vehicles to catch up the advanced countries for the auto industry of China currently.
The development of electric vehicles relies heavily on the breakthrough of battery
technology. There are two types of electric vehicles: hybrid and pure electric vehicle. It may take
long-term efforts to successfully develop long endurance pure electric vehicles and hybrid is a
much more promising option presently. By combining the advanced internal combustion engine
(ICE) of a conventional vehicle with the battery and electric motor of an electric vehicle together,
hybrids offer an extended range and performance that the customers can expect from a
conventional vehicle. Moreover, hybrids have absolute compatibility with the conventional
petroleum filling stations. It is time for China to develop hybrids now.
The hybrid is a proven technology, but the cost is a challenge. At present, Chinas hybrids are
still in the initial stage of commercialization due to a 30% higher cost than the same size
conventional cars. Nevertheless, the future of electric vehicles is promising. It needs our research
in all related fields such as power grid.
10.4.2.5 Hydrogen
Judging from the current situation in and out of China, a successful deployment of fuel cell
vehicles (FCV) still needs a series of very tough technological breakthroughs, such as H 2
production, distribution, storage, especially on-board storage, infrastructure construction, and
high-price platinum catalyst etc. It is more reasonable to conduct research and set up several
demonstrations at this moment and the commercialization of hydrogen fuel-cell cars still needs at
least 15~20 years. Generally speaking, FCV technology is not ready; it remains to be a long term
option.
10.5
supply
The concept of system optimization, smooth transition has been proposed in Section 10.3.
However, the realization of this concept should be supported by a set of comprehensive
methodology and tools.
As a part of the methodology development, this section shows the theory and methodology in
optimizing urban transportation energy supply, followed with a case study.
The fore-mentioned development direction of urban transportation energy is at the national
level, however, there is not a single solution for the whole country in real-life construction. The
reason lies in: different region has different situations in terms of demand, resource, market, etc,
and all these differences will lead to different optimal supply modes. Therefore, it is necessary to
291
determine the optimal urban transportation energy supply mode by taking minimal life-cycle cost,
lowest energy consumption, or least environmental emissions as the optimization objectives in
both temporal and spatial dimensions.
This section starts with an introduction of the general frame of the urban transportation
energy supply optimization methodology, and then describes the key steps within the frame in
detail. At last, a case study is included to show the application of the methodology.
of
transportation
energy
supply
A systematic and comprehensive urban transportation energy supply optimization should include
at least demand analysis, technology assessment, technology choice, infrastructure optimization,
and other basic elements. To meet the sustainable urban mobility requirements from the energy
supply viewpoint, the optimization of transportation energy supply should deal with several new
problems such as the assessment of the potential of new technologies, the prediction of cost and
market penetration of new technologies, all of which endow the optimization of transportation
energy supply with new characteristics. Figure 10.15 shows the general frame of the optimization
methodology of urban transportation energy supply.
Figure 10.15 shows that the optimization of urban transportation energy supply contains four
steps: (1) urban traffic demand scenario analysis: to obtain the future traffic demand scenarios by
analyzing the social economic statistical data, and to input the total traffic amount and traffic mode
structure into the transportation energy supply technology switch model; (2) analysis of life-cycle
3E (energy, economy and environment) performances of energy supply chain: to analyze both the
incumbent major energy and alternative energy in terms of life-cycle performances to get the
energy, economy and environmental performance data for different fuels as the input of the
transportation energy supply technology switch model; (3) transportation energy supply
292
technology switch: to determine the transportation energy supply technology and development
scale for selected cities in terms of different time phases, by setting the life-cycle optimization
objectives and the calculation of the optimization model; (4) dynamic planning of transportation
energy supply infrastructure: by combining the results from the last step with the detailed
geographic information, to get the optimal solutions for transportation energy infrastructure
configuration in terms of both temporal and spacial dimensions.
Because the transportation energy supply system is one sub-system of the national energy
system, the transportation sector faces constraints from resource, environment and other aspects
brought by the whole energy system. Therefore, the optimization process will come into a
judgment module (the blue diamond in Figure 10.15) to investigate whether the economic,
resource, environmental constraints are satisfied or not. If the resulted transportation energy
infrastructure solution does not meet the constraints, there are two possible approaches to
improve: (1) to change the future traffic demand or traffic mode structure; (2) to further enhance
the R&D activities in order to improve the vehicle and energy supply technologies. The following
contents will apply the above four steps by introducing a case study.
293
The total energy consumption can be calculated from the energy balance within the entire life
cycle system. The related energy can be classified into three types: (1) the direct energy
consumption of each sub-system, referring to the energy used for equipment running (compressor
power or truck diesel), which belongs to ending portion; (2) the energy contained in the feedstock
of each sub-system, referring to the energy amount contained in the consumed primary energy
during the production process (generally the low heat value), which belongs to the production
portion; (3) the energy consumption during equipment manufacturing, recycling and disposal,
which belongs to material consumption portion and recycling portion.
The environmental performance includes all the pollutant emissions caused by material
consumption and energy consumption through the all life cycle. Similar to the calculation of
energy consumption, the emission calculation also has three types: (1) the direct emissions of each
294
sub-system; (2) the emissions caused by the feed stocks of each sub-system; (3) the emissions
caused by equipment processing of each sub-system.
The life cycle cost is the sum of the cost of each sub-system, the cost calculation items
include the O&M cost derived from the feedstock, facilities construction, labor cost and
depreciation period, and the depreciated cost of equipment investment, and also the recycling cost.
Thus, the life cycle 3E performances of each kind of transportation energy can be derived to
feed in the urban transportation energy supply technology switch model of the next section.
295
For the optimization of future energy supply chain, three factors must be taken into account:
supply cost, energy consumption, and environmental emissions during the whole life cycle. So
there are three objective functions in this model, they are total cost C total, total energy consumption
Etotal, and total CO2 emissions Ttotal of the whole life cycle. The total cost includes the whole supply
cost of the urban transportation energy supply system, excluding the cost of vehicle, because such
cost is not generated by the energy suppliers but by the consumers. The vehicle side cost is
estimated in urban transportation demand scenario analyses and the database of vehicle
technologies in the optimization frame. However, the energy consumption and CO 2 emissions of
vehicles are calculated into the CO 2 emissions of total energy consumption, because they are
directly associated with urban transportation. However, conventional pollutant emissions are not
involved in this model, even thought they are similar in calculation and modeling to CO 2. The
formulas of three objectives function are as follows.
Ctotal
Q f ,m ,t (C f ft )
(1 i )t
f , m ,t
Etotal
f , m ,t
/ ( f tf )
f , m ,t
Ttotal
f , m ,t
T f tf
f , m ,t
In addition, there is an important constraining formula, the demand and supply formula as
listed below:
Dm ,t
Q f , m,t m
FE f
The meanings of the symbols and parameters are listed in the following table:
Table 10.7 Symbols and parameters.
Symbols
parameters
f
m
t
i
Q
D
C
FE
and
Meaning
Unit
Fuel type
Transportation mode
Year
Discount rate
Fuel capacity
Transportation demand
Supply cost of fuels
Efficiency of fuel production
Fuel economy
Conversion factor for the carrying
capacity of transport mode
Life cycle CO2 emissions
Technology development factor
MJ/year
km/year
RMB/MJ
MJ/km
gCO2/MJ
As mentioned above, the minimum cost, energy consumption, and CO 2 emissions in the
296
whole life cycle are the three optimization objectives of the designed model. But there may be
contradictions among them, for example, low cost technologies may result in bad performance on
energy consumption and environmental emissions. Therefore, there is not an optimal solution with
least cost, energy consumption and emission at the same time, or even just with two objectives.
Three steps are taken in optimizing this model, as shown in Figure 10.17.
297
Year
Bus
Subway
2005
238.97
171.76
29.87
2010
312.77
224.81
78.19
2015
399.68
287.27
149.88
2020
500.91
360.03
250.45
2025
598.80
430.38
374.25
2030
705.86
507.34
529.39
Other input data in this case study are referred to (EUCAR, etc. 2004; Wang Bianqing, etc.
2004; National Bureau of Statistics, 2007). Using the three-step optimization method, three types
of scenarios are analyzed in this case study.
(1) Scenario analyses of single-objective optimization
Firstly, three scenarios appear by separately optimizing each objective: scenarios for
minimum cost, minimum energy consumption, and minimum emissions, as shown in Figure
10.18.
Scenario
consumption
for
minimum
energy
The optimization results show that different objectives will lead to different solutions. For
298
example: hybrid and coal derived alternative fuel will be fully developed when supply cost is
chosen as the optimization objective, hybrid will occupy most of the market for its good fuel
economy when energy consumption is set as the objective, and biomass derived alternative fuel
and renewable electricity will play an important role, for their emission advantage, choosing CO 2
emissions is the target. In addition, the comparison shows that there are certain contradictions
among different objectives.
The single-objective optimization results show that each transportation energy supply
technology has its own advantages and disadvantages and their development potential strongly
depend on the development goals of the future urban transportation energy system.
(2) Scenario analyses of double-objective optimization
As mentioned above, there are contradictions among different objectives. There is more work
needed. Here, double-objective optimization is conducted, as shown in Figure 10.19.
As shown, every point in the above three graphics stands for one Pareto optimal solution.
Taking a point in cost vs. energy consumption as example, the energy consumption of this point
means the minimum energy consumption under a limited supply cost.
The figure also shows that the Pareto solutions in the three scenarios have the similar trend,
which indicates that in order to reduce the emissions of urban transportation, we have to increase
the cost or the energy consumption similarly; and to reduce the energy consumption, we have to
299
5.7
5.70
5.6
5.60
5.50
5.5
5.40
5.30
5.4
5.20
5.10
5.3
5.2
20
300
18
22
310
24
320
330
26
340
350
28
On the above figure, the point in the black circle is the solution of minimum cost
optimization scenario. With strict requirements from both emissions reduction and energy saving,
total supply cost demonstrates a growth trend. However, there are limitations in the degree of
emissions reduction and energy saving, which is obviously not a matter of big cost. Therefore, the
suitable optimization solution should be chosen according to the actual limitations of the
emissions reduction, energy saving, and supply cost.
Generally, lower energy consumption and higher emissions reduction increase the cost.
Therefore, policy makers should measure the importance of energy consumption, emissions as
well as cost to make a right plan for future energy supply system of urban transportation.
300
301
components. Production processes are required to convert primary energy resources into
hydrogen. Storage units and terminals are needed to compensate for fluctuations in demand.
Distribution systems are essential for transporting hydrogen from the production facilities to the
point of sale. Finally, dispensing/refueling technologies allow transfer of hydrogen to users at
forecourt retail stations. There are a set of potential technologies within each component of
hydrogen supply chain. Besides, an additional dimension exists when defining the location of
production within the supply chain.
In Figure 10.21 the superstructure representation that forms the basis of the hydrogen supply
model is illustrated. It starts with a set of primary energy resources:
r R := {Natural Gas, Coal, Biomass, Renewable Electricity, }
which can be used as feedstocks for producing hydrogen at a set of s S geographical
industrial sitessuch as refineriesusing any of the large-scale centralized manufacturing
technologies:
j J := {Steam Methane Reforming, Gasification, Electrolysis, }
Each of these production technologies are defined such that they can perform conversion of
primary energy feedstocks into an intermediate energy carrier that is suitable for distribution:
l L := {Compressed Natural Gas, Liquid H2, Compressed Gaseous H2, }
These intermediate carriers are then delivered from the production sites to the set of forecourt
refueling stations (markets), mM, using a corresponding distribution technology:
p P := {Natural Gas Pipeline, Liquid H2 Truck, Compressed Gaseous H2 Tube-Trailer, }
At the refueling stations, the intermediate carriers are dispensed as the final product, namely
hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles, using the appropriate forecourt technology, qQ. This
mathematical representation also allows distributed on-site production to be explicitly considered
as a pathway option. This is achieved by defining the set of forecourt technology options to
include both technologies for dispensing hydrogen received from the central production facilities
as well as technologies for small-scale production:
302
303
alternative fuels seriously including coal-derived methanol fuel. The vision this section sets
reveals the potential picture that, current methanol fuel activity is valuable not only for the near
term and medium term energy security problem relieving, but also for a smooth transition to a
possible hydrogen era, with all the infrastructures can be used continuously.
(1)Model input
The case study problem specification is depicted in Figure 10.22. It consists of a China map
where 6 production sites have been identified for the potential installation of central production
technologies. Demand for hydrogen by FCV drivers is expected at 21 major cities with three
different demand level (Early demand, Mid demand and Late demand), acting as the markets in
the formulation. Of the 6 central production sites, C1, C2, C3 and C4 take coal as main primary
energy, also C1, C2 and C3 have some reserve of natural gas; N1 and N2 take natural gas as main
primary energy. Furthermore, model assumes all the production sites have plenty of biomass
resources and non-renewable electricity, while C3, C4, N1 and N2 have power resources derived
from renewables, and C4 also has nuclear power sources. These primary energy availability
conditions limit the technologies that are allowed to be installed there.
In Figure 10.23 the hydrogen demand forecast for the geographical region over the planning
horizon is illustrated. It shows both the expected number of hydrogen FCVs and corresponding
hydrogen consumptions requirement per year during each of the planning intervals. The longrange planning horizon is defined as the period from 2010 to 2034 divided into 5 intervals of 5
years each.
304
Note: NG = Natural Gas; CL = Coal; BM = Biomass; NR = Non-renewable Power; RE = Renewable Power; NU = Nuclear Power;
Dummy Elec. Non-Renewable = Dummy Non-Renewable Power Plant; Dummy Elec. Renewable = Dummy Renewable Power Plant;
Dummy Elec. Nuclear = Dummy Nuclear Power Plant; CNG = Compressed Natural Gas; MeOH = Methanol; GH 2 = Gaseous Hydrogen;
LH2 = Liquid Hydrogen.
(2)Model results
In order to express the impact of introducing methanol pathway, two different scenarios are
set: Scenario A to include methanol pathway (Called With MeOH) and Scenario B to exclude
methanol pathway (Called Without MeOH). Applying the multi-objective optimization
approach to these two scenarios results in two sets of trade-off solutions presented in Figure 10.25.
305
The two sets of trade-off solutions in Figure 10.25 shows that the largest NPV Scenario A can
achieve is larger than that of Scenario B. And the two sets of solutions merge into one when the
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions are less than around 0.2 billion tone, because when the
environmental emission constraint becomes stricter, the methanol pathway will be eliminated
from the supply chain candidates, as methanol pathway can no more meet the emission
constraint, and as a result, there is no difference between Scenario A and Scenario B; when the
GHG emissions are more than 0.2 billion tone, Scenario A will offer larger NPV than Scenario B
under the same GHG emission constraint. This means the introduction of methanol pathway
could improve the economic competitiveness of hydrogen infrastructure within a scope of
relatively gentle emission constraint; however, this advantage will disappear when the emission
constraint becomes stricter.
Noting that each solution within the set represents an alternative infrastructure design and
investment strategy, the extent of the compromise between the solutions achieving maximum
return on the investment and minimum GHG emissions can be explicitly quantified. Moving along
the trade-off frontier from one extreme to the other involves a series of distinct infrastructures.
The optimal trade-off frontier can be broken into Infrastructure Solutions based upon the
different feedstock, production, distribution and refueling components of the supply chain that are
consistent over a specific region of the curve (as Scenario A shown in Figure 10.26). Table 10.9
contains the detailed supply chain component descriptions corresponding to these Infrastructure
Solutions of Scenario A.
306
Production
Distribution
Refueling
Coal to MeOH
Truck
k
Infrastructure
Coal
Solution 1
Onsite
non-renewable
water
electrolysis
Infrastructure
Coal
Coal to MeOH
Truck
Solution 2
Biomass
Coal to Liquid H2
Liquid H2 refueling
Biomass to Liquid
Onsite
H2
electrolysis
Truck
Infrastructure
Coal
Coal to MeOH
Solution 3
Biomass
Biomass to Liquid
Liquid H2 refueling
H2
Onsite
water
water
electrolysis
Infrastructure
Biomass
Solution 4
Biomass to Liquid
Truck
Liquid H2 refueling
H2
Pipeline
Gaseous H2 refueling
Biomass
to
Onsite
Gaseous H2
Infrastructure
Solution 5
Biomass
renewable
water
electrolysis
Biomass
to
Gaseous H2
Pipeline
Gaseous H2 refueling
Onsite
renewable
water
renewable
water
electrolysis
Infrastructure
Onsite
Solution 6
electrolysis
307
Starting with the maximum NPV strategy (Infrastructure Solution 1) involving only coal to
methanol investment, the optimal transition towards reducing emissions requires the introduction
of biomass gasification as a complimentary production technology and coal to liquid hydrogen
production (Infrastructure Solution 2). Further reductions in emissions can be achieved while
remain cost competitive (Infrastructure Solution 3) by eliminating coal to liquid hydrogen
production while increasing the biomass to liquid hydrogen proportion. Progressively, coal-based
production is totally taken placed by biomass-based technology, the distribution of which includes
both liquid and gaseous hydrogen truck delivery, in order to achieve the desired level of emission
mitigation (Infrastructure Solution 4). Any further emission reduction requires the distribution
component of supply chain transforms to gaseous pipeline delivery from liquid delivery
(Infrastructure Solution 5). The least emission strategy involves only onsite water electrolysis by
renewable power (Infrastructure Solution 6).
To highlight the characteristics of the solution obtained from the model, one of the optimal
compromise solutions is isolated and presented in Figure 10.27. It corresponds to the maximum
NPV solution of Scenario A.
308
Figure 10.27 Sample compromise investment strategy obtained from the model
Figure 10.27 shows that, the infrastructure evolution is as follows: (1) when t = t1, while the
hydrogen demand is low and only occurs at E1 and E2, the super metropolis Beijing and
Shanghai, it is not economic to apply centralized production and the onsite water electrolysis is
instead utilized in market places; (2) when t = t2, no other markets become active, E1 and E2
remain the same hydrogen production pattern to meet the demand, namely onsite water
electrolysis, with an increased capacity; (3) when t = t3, besides early markets E1 and E2, all the
mid demand markets become active. The growing demand allows the economies of scale to be
exploited by decommissioning the forecourt onsite water electrolysis and switching to centralized
manufacturing of methanol through coal gasification. Both C1 and C4 are optimally selected as
the central production sites, and the distribution network is optimized based on the flow rates and
distances between the sites and markets, all the markets provide hydrogen to customers by onsite
methanol-to-hydrogen reforming technology; (4) when t = t4, all the late demand markets become
active. Another site C2 is selected to produce methanol from coal centrally. The distribution
network is reorganized through optimization because of the join of C2 site. For instance, M3 and
M9 are not supplied by C1 as they are in t3, but now C2 supplies them instead; (5) when t = t5,
with demand increasing, all the existing production sites increase their capacity. At the same time,
two other sites C3 and N1 start to manufacture methanol and hydrogen respectively, and C3
becomes the main supplier of E1, while C1 shifts its supply to the other markets. Because of the
availability of natural gas resources and short distribution distance to L4, the newly-built N1
supplies natural gas-derived gaseous hydrogen to L4 by pipeline.
To illustrate the capabilities of the model, the results of a China case study have been
presented. Through the study it is shown how the model can identify optimal investment strategies
for a given geographical region. The model functions are mainly reflected at two levels: firstly, at
the supply chain design level, the model addresses the optimal selection of the primary energy
feedstocks, allocation of conversion technologies to either central or distributed production sites,
design of the distribution technology network and selection of refueling technologies; in the
meantime, capacity expansions as well as technology shut-downs are captured to explicitly
address the dynamics of the infrastructure and the timing of the investment. Secondly, at the
supply chain operation level, the model outputs include the estimation of primary energy
feedstock requirements and production, distribution and refueling rates. The methodology and
309
model tools can also be applied to other urban transportation energy infrastructure problems.
10.6
Conclusion
The rapid growth of Chinas economy results in huge and ever-increasing energy consumption,
and it brings severe pressures to energy supply, ecology, and environment. Under the energy
status, the energy development for urban transportation should not only stratify one condition but
multi-constraints. The energy saving, environment protection, energy security, and CO 2 mitigation
have become the necessary contents to realizing the urban sustainable mobility.
To coordinate the development of energy supply and urban transportation, the traditional
one-way relationship must be altered: it not only brings huge pressure to energy supply side
while ignoring or not fully emphasizing the necessary demand side management and overdependence on the improvement of the energy supply capacity, but also limits the active
adaptability of energy supply, being over-dependent on specified category of energy. To build a
bidirectional relationship to support the urban sustainable mobility, the energy development for
urban transport must be guided with two fundamentals: (1) Bi-directional harmonizing and
multi-disciplinary cooperating: it means that besides the improvement of the efficiency, quality,
capacity, and diversification of energy supply, it is also important to control the total demand of
mobility, to optimize the transportation structure, and to improve the adaptability of different
energy from transportation demand side; (2) Systematic optimization and smooth transition:
it means that it is necessary to catch the essence of sustainable development with considerations
from the whole-scope and life-cycle of the society and economy development, and then to select a
feasible portfolio of energy technologies and a continuous and dynamical development scheme.
In terms of guiding the development of transportation energy technology: firstly, considering
that the incumbent energy, oil-based vehicle fuel plus ICE technology, will still serve as the
major part of urban transportation energy and vehicle energy in a long period, the emphasis should
be placed on continuously optimizing and improving the oil supply system and ICE technology so
as to realize efficient and clean utilization of gasoline and diesel; secondly, considering the urgent
requirement of energy security and environment protection, expedient alternative could also be
actively developed according to regional conditions, but its total amount should be strictly
controlled and its benefit and cost be carefully balanced; thirdly, considering the ultimate goal of
low carbon energy, it is still necessary to insist on exploring every type of desirable alternatives to
find the long-term solutions, where the electrification of vehicle power-train should be an
important candidate direction.
In terms of optimizing the energy supply of urban transportation, the multi-constraints of the
development of urban transportation energy must be thoroughly considered, the research scope
should be the whole energy system including sections such as energy exploitation, conversion,
transportation, distribution, and end-utilization, and the matching and optimizing between energy
demand and supply in different time scales must be carefully analyzed. Based on multi-objective
decision-making, the author addresses a set of systematical optimization methodologies suitable
for urban transportation energy supply, which is composed of the following four elements: (1)
scenario analysis of urban transportation demand; (2) life cycle assessment of urban transportation
310
energy technology; (3) multi-objective decision-making of energy technology portfolio for urban
transportation; (4) dynamic optimization of energy infrastructure for urban transportation.
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L. Chang, et al. 2007. Pathways for hydrogen infrastructure development in China: Integrated assessment
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312
Chapter 11 Urban
Sustainable
Transportation
and
Overview
of
Environment
Impact
on
Urban
Transportation
Urban transportation impact implies the city, regional and even global environment impact
brought by urban transport activities. Urban transportation activities include traffic activities
within the cities and between city groups, whose environment impacts include air, water, noise and
so on. For road transportation is major passenger and cargo transport way within and between the
cities, this study will focus on the review and analysis on the atmospheric environment impact
brought by road transportation.
11.2
Period
Polution type
1950-60s
bituminous coal
1970-80s
photochemical smog
After 1980s
global warming
Pollution ext
ents
Pollutants
Local pollution
Regional pollution
Global issue
Sulfur
dioxide
(SO2),
particulate
matter (PM)
Typical foun
d in
London
Los Angeles
313
Characterizat
ion
Pollutions
in
specific
area
accumulated
by
pollutants
from
burning coals into
atmosphere
in
condition of low
temperature
and
existing
inversion
layer.
Photochemical smog is
mainly blue smoke with
strong oxidbillity, whose
peak arises at strong
sunlight noon or later and
disappears at dusk. The
pollution
area
often
extends to a few dozen or
several
hundred
kilometers leeward side
of the pollution source.
Control polic
y
Single
pollution
source,
single
pollutant, single city
controlling.
Comprehensive
factors
and
multi-source
pollution controlling
314
3
NOx
NO2
2.5
NO /SO
2
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Beijing
Jinan
Dalian
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Chongqing
Langfang
Ningbo
Taiyuan
Wuhan
315
Yearbook, 2007, see Figure 12-2). Automobile pollution in many big cities has become the main
source of air pollution (Hao Jiming, 2000), which attracted more and more attention. The
conventional pollutants discharged by automotive and their hazardous are shown in Table 11-2.
Table 11- 2 Emissions of automotive pollutants and their hazardous
Pollutants
Hazardous
NOx
NO has little toxicity itself, but in the air it will be oxidized quickly
into NO2 with great toxicity. NO2 has oxidation feature that can harm
the human lung.
Colorless, tasteless, odorless flammable toxic gas. It prevents
hemoglobin from transporting oxygen to the body, causing lack of
oxygen, paralyzing central nervous system, causing feeling,
understanding and memory dysfunction, and so on.
HC reacts with NOx and generates O3 which is strongly oxidizing,
could seriously damage the lung, causing acute respiratory disease,
and may trigger photochemical smog pollution incidents.
It has critical influence on human health and air visibility. The
surface of PM will absorb other pollutants and bring which into
human respiratory tract causing kinds of hazards.
CO
HC
PM
Contribution
rate on urban
pollutant
concentration
73%
80%
80%
PM10: 7%-14
%
PM2.5: 10-20
%
Monitoring analysis results on key cities suggest that: the concentration level of NO X and CO
is increasing yearly, seriously exceeding national environment air quality standards. It shows on:
NOX is seriously exceeding standard; the CO concentration beside the roads and in trafficintensive areas is exceeding national standard; PM, especially fine particulate matter pollution
could not be ignored; urban ozone is highly exceeding standard with a potential risk of
photochemical smog.
Transport activity and environmental quality is reciprocal, affected and conditioned by each
other, shown in figure 11-2. If we assume transportation as cause and environment quality as
effect, the externality caused by transportation on environment is mainly negative, including local,
regional and global environment impact. Local environment impact includes the noise, vibration
and dust problems due to transportation. Regional impact mainly indicates the increasing
concentration of conventional atmospheric pollutants caused by automobile burning or volatilizing
oil, including Carbon Monoxide (CO), Hydrocarbons (HC), Nitrogen Oxides (NO X) and
Particulate Matter (PM). Global impact consists of emission of greenhouse gases and toxic and
hazardous materials. On the other hand, the environment quality also raises a series of requirement
and constraints to the transport activities, which are mainly reflected in technology, vehicle
amount and vehicle usage. In terms of technology, to protect environment requires the usage of
more advanced vehicle technologies, including engine technology and post-processing technology,
higher-grade unleaded and low sulfur oil. In terms of vehicle amount, it demands controlling the
total amount of vehicles. In usage, we need to limit the usage of motor vehicle by means of
demand side management, and improve the traffic condition and reduce emissions causing by
adverse traffic conditions. All constraints above will increase the cost of possession and usage of
vehicle, and finally bound for transport activities through coercive measures and economics
measures.
316
Environment quality
Emission of
greenhouse gas
Regional
Dust
Vibration
Local
Noise
Envi
ron
ment
cons
train
ts on
trans
port
activ
ities
Global
Technology
Advanced vehicle
technologies
Possession
Usage
Transport activities
Limit/(g/km)
carbon
monoxide
(CO)
hydrocarbon
(HC)
317
nitrogen
oxide (NOX)
Hydrocarbo
n
and
nitrogen
oxide (HC+
parti
culat
e
mate
L1
L2
L3
NOX)
rial
(PM)
L2+L3
L4
spar
kigniti
on
com
press
ionigniti
on
spar
kigniti
on
com
press
ionigniti
on
spar
kigniti
on
com
press
ionigniti
on
spar
kigniti
on
com
press
ionigniti
on
comp
ressi
onigniti
on
St
ag
e
cate
gor
y
L
ev
el
Typ
e1
All
2.30
0.64
0.20
0.15
0.50
0.56
0.05
0
Typ
e2
RM130
5
2.30
0.64
0.20
0.15
0.50
0.56
0.05
0
II
1305
RM176
0
4.17
0.80
0.25
0.18
0.65
0.72
0.07
0
1760
RM
5.22
0.95
0.29
0.21
0.78
0.86
0.10
0
Typ
e1
All
1.00
0.50
0.10
0.08
0.25
0.30
0.02
5
Typ
e2
RM130
5
1.00
0.50
0.10
0.08
0.25
0.30
0.02
5
II
1305
RM176
0
1.81
0.63
0.13
0.10
0.33
0.39
0.04
0
1760
RM
2.27
0.74
0.16
0.11
0.39
0.46
0.06
0
Type 1: passenger motor cars, not more than 6 seats (including driver seat),the largest total
mass not more than 2500kg. Type 2: besides the type 1 cars, any other light car that among this
standards sphere of application.
Table 11- 4 Implementing date of type sanction
Stage III
Stage IV
Test I
2007.7.1
2010.7.1
Test III
Test IV
Test V
318
Test VI
On-Board
Diagnostics OBD
System Test
2008.7.1
Others
2010.7.1
From the year after the implementing date of type sanction provided in Table 11-4, all light
car manufactured and sold must meet emission standards.
Case Study: Beijing's traffic pollution control and atmosphere environmental quality
In traffic pollution management and control, Beijing has always been at the forefront of the
country. In 2004 Beijing promulgated the auto-fuel quality standards. It also respectively
implements the National Stage I, II and III motor vehicle emission standards in 1999, 2002 and
2005. From December 30, 2005 the implementation of National III motor vehicle emissions
standard, it carried out the principles of New cars new standard, old cars old standard that only
new cars that meet the standard could be sold in Beijing. (See Table 11-5) At the same time,
relevant government sector strengthened the vehicles usage management, enhancing intensity of
inspection with trucks coming to Beijing at night, cars not registered in Beijing, buses, taxis and
so on. It steadily eliminates old motor vehicles (by scrapping, writing off and migrating). The
buses lines and number is continuous increasing meanwhile rail transit construction is in progress.
According to air quality requirements from 11th Five-Year Plan environment planning and
hosting the Olympic Games, the State Council approved that from March 1, 2008, any light petrol
vehicles (namely, passenger and commercial petrol vehicles whose largest total mass is less than
3.5 tons) licensed in Beijing should implement the National IV emission standard, meanwhile stop
selling and registering cars do not meet the requirements above. From July 1, 2008, among heavy
vehicles with diesel and natural gas engines, any buses, sanitation and postal vehicles licensed in
Beijing should obey the National IV emission standard and install On-Board Diagnostics (OBD)
to monitoring nitrogen oxides emissions; meanwhile stop selling and registering cars do not meet
the requirements above. Other used diesel and gas engine vehicles still implement the National III
standard.
Table 11- 5 Vehicle emission standard and petrol quality standard
Standar
d
EU
China
Beijing
petrol
EU-I
Jul. 1992
2001
1999
EU-II
Jan. 1996
2004
2003
500
500
1996
2005
EU-III
Jan. 2000
2007
2006
150
350
2000
2008
EU-IV
Jan. 2005
2010
2008
50
50
2005
EU-V
Sep. 2009
10
10
2008
EU-VI
Jan. 2014
diesel
EU
China
Beijing
1993
319
2005
2008
Under the guidance of scientific concept of development, Beijing exerts itself on building a
harmonious society and actively promotes the strategic concept of New Beijing, New Olympics,
namely, making substantial progress on changing development idea, focusing on coordinated
development, speeding structural adjustment and transformation of the growth mode, and
enhancing urban environment management level, maintain stable and fast economic
development, .steady raising of peoples living standards and further improvement of environment
quality. At the same time, increasing demand for energy, rapid growth in motor vehicles number
and continuous shortage of water resources brings great pressure on the capitals improvement of
environmental quality and ecological conditions. Figure 11-3 and 11-4 reflects the improvement of
Beijings air quality in recent years.
Figure 11- 3 In Beijing, days meet air quality standard increased year by year
recently)
(Source: statistic data of the days meet air quality standard in 1998-2007 disclosed by Beijing
Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau)
320
321
11.3
11.3.1
To analysis the relationships between various influencing elements and their impact on
environment is the basis to raise and support various control measures against pollutions caused
by vehicles. In this research an indicator system was set up to evaluate sustainability of urban
traffic from the perspective of its impact on environment.
Impact of urban traffic on environment is decided not only by such internal factors as
pollution control technologies and engine technologies of vehicles but also by external factors like
road plan and characteristics of the city and it is also restricted by the environmental situation and
capacity of the city. Generally speaking, all the influencing elements can be divided into four
patterns as following: (a) fundamental elements regarding urban economy and society; (b)
elements regarding urban environmental conditions; (c) elements regarding development of urban
traffic facilities; (d) elements regarding capacity development for environment protection.
Among all the influencing elements, emission amount from vehicles, which is decided by
several kinds of factors as following, stands at the core position.
(1) Influencing factors related to vehicle technologies including technologies on engine and
emission control as well as parameters like the weight of the vehicle and its engine displacement.
Influencing factors related to vehicles technologies directly influence pollutant emissions of
vehicles which can be greatly reduced with the wide use of advanced vehicles technologies such
as the technology of electronically controlled injection system plus three-way catalytic converter
(TWC) which can reduce vehicle emissions to 10 %20 % of what discharged by vehicles using
carburetor.
(2) Influencing factors related to the use of vehicles including accumulated driving mileage
and maintenance conditions. Research reports shows that the level of pollutant emissions from
vehicles will consistently degrade with the increase of driving mileage, whats more, when a
vehicle is in bad conditions in terms of maintenance and parts adjustment, it, even with less
driving mileage, would discharge pollutants seriously beyond the legitimate quota.
(3) Influencing factors related to the driving states of vehicles including ways vehicles start
( cold start or warm start ), the average driving speeds , loads and operating modes (speed-up
speed-down or idle speed ) of vehicles and climbing the slope.
(4) Factors like the quality of petroleum products as well as temperature and humidity of
environment. The quality of petroleum products can directly impact the pollutant emissions from
vehicles. Nowadays, a lot of researches have been launched by the US, China and some European
countries to analyze the impact of quality of petroleum products on the pollutant emissions from
vehicles of different technological types, in some of which the factor of environmental
temperature has been taken into consideration when setting up models of the pollutant emissions
from vehicles.
322
323
324
325
and then raised and identified fundamental principles for models of sustainable development of
urban traffic systems.(Wang Wei, 2004).
According to these established fundamental principles, disparities among different cities in
terms of the citys scale and way of land use should be fully considered to coordinate these
interrelated issues including urban population, land use and traffic model. Resources conditions
for development of urban traffic should be fully considered to reach supply-demand equilibrium,
keeping urban traffic demand from surpassing its supply. Requirements and goals for quality of
urban environment should also be fully considered to prevent the scale of urban traffic system
development from exceeding its environmental capability.
A team led by Dai Yi with the School of Resources and Environmental Engineering in East
China University of Science and Technology (Dai Yi, 2005), starting their research with
sustainable development of urban traffic environment and considering factors such as economy,
society and environment, established the indicator system for sustainable traffic in Shanghai which
was then followed to evaluate traffic operations in Shanghai during 1994 to 2003 and ended up
with specific indicators for sustainable development of traffic during the above 10 years in
Shanghai.
Lu Huapu, Mao Qizhi, Lizheng, He Kebin, Shuai Shijin and Zhang Xiliang from Tsinghua
University launched academic research comprehensively in perspective of multiple disciplines
regarding traffic, energy, environment, auto and policy. Interviews and researches during the first
phase of the research were launched in large scale on current situations of sustainable
development of urban traffic in China. (Lu Huapu, 2006).
11.3.2.2
It is the very basis to understand state clearly to do analysis according to above frameworks of
indicator system and when it comes to researches on sustainable traffic, the most direct indicator
to describe state is the volume of pollutant emissions from vehicles. In the following section,
related issues regarding test for vehicle emissions, models of emission factors and pollutants
emission inventory will be reviewed.
1. Methods of emission test
Nowadays, there are mainly two kinds of test methods for pollutant emissions from vehicles,
namely dynamometer test as well as test on real road including experiment in tunnel, remote
sensing test and on-board test. These four testing methods, with different functions and
advantages, can be applied to various researches with different goals (Wang Qidong, 2005).
Dynamometer test: As are operated in labs where researchers can take various experimental
conditions under control and repeat the experiment as they will, dynamometer test is mandated by
laws and regulations as the method to measure emission factors from vehicles. The tested vehicle
is set to drive on a chassis dynamometer according a set working condition (usually the standard
working condition), meanwhile pollutants discharged are collected by testing system. European
countries, US and Japan all established standard emission testing programs of their own one after
another. Main disadvantages of dynamometer test fall on that the testing system is always very
326
expensive and emission data of just one tested vehicle can be obtained during every test so the
testing cost is very high.
Experiment in tunnel: During an experiment in tunnel, people measure concentration of
discharged pollutants in and outside the tunnel, combining traffic flow parameters on the spot,
then conclude the average level of emission factors of related vehicles. Currently, many researches
using experiment in tunnel have been launched in China. The experiment in tunnel is easy to
operate and may cover more samples of vehicles, so it can be used to measure average emission
factors when high precision is not required. But unfavorable aspects are that results of experiment
in tunnel are subject to background concentration of atmosphere in and out of the tunnel and
vehicles are only tested under single working condition. (Cheng Y, 2006)
Remote sensing test: Remote sensing technology is a kind of optical measuring method
without tough on the measured items which can be introduced to directly measure tail gas
emission from vehicles in motion, universally adopted in the US and some European countries.
More that 10,000 vehicles can be tested through remote sensing test featuring high level of
automation so the test is used as the main approach to Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) programs
for tail gas from vehicles as well as identifying high-emission vehicles and it is also introduced in
China to measure and research on pollutant emissions. But the adverse aspects of this test lie on
that precision of the test is confined by environmental conditions such as speed and direction of
wind and results concluded from spot tests may not fully cover emissions from vehicles under
various driving conditions.
On-board test. With much more in-depth researches on vehicle emissions, more and more
researchers shift to focus on transient characteristics of vehicle emissions when they are driving on
real road and on-board test on real road gradually become one of popular research fields. Onboard testing instruments are directly installed in tested driving vehicle to collect parameters of its
driving characteristics as well as pollutant discharge rates in every second, providing a great
number of data which truly reflect transient driving characteristics and emissions from vehicles.
Some researchers even think that to some extent, the on-board test can replace the dynamometer
test which is time and energy consuming. At the very beginning, the on-board test was mainly
used for testing parameters and inspecting emissions of vehicles while recently, with improvement
of apparatus in technologies and functions, there have emerged much more products and sets used
in on-board test for researches on vehicle emissions. China just started its research on vehicle
emissions through on-board test system. The drawback of on-board test system is that test results
can not reveal emission levels of all vehicles due to limited samples.
327
influencing factors, they design testing plans to actually inspect how these factors influence
emissions from vehicles. In the end, when enough samples and testing data obtained, researchers
can describe characteristics and regularities of vehicle emissions under different influencing
factors through mathematical statistics and physical analyses, setting up models of vehicle
emissions.
MOBILE and EMFAC are the first two models of vehicle emission factors, developed
respectively by EPA and CARB. They share similar method with which results of dynamometer
test following federal test procedure will go through statistic regression and impact on emissions
by factors like driving mileage, technologies kept by new cars, deterioration factor, driving speed,
temperature, rules of I/ M and quality of oil are comprehensively considered. But, according to
this model, driving characteristic, an important factor influencing vehicle emission, is weakened
for it is replaced by average speed and emission factors under non-F TP working conditions are
calculated with modifying factors about speed. This kind of method, also represented by the
COPERT Model developed in Europe earlier, is highly controversial among researchers both
home and aboard, however, with its less critical requirements on data, the model based on average
speed has strong advantages in simulating emissions by vehicles in macro scale and is applied
widely. In China, researchers have started to calculate vehicle emissions in Beijing, Shanghai,
Nanjing and Macao through modified MOBILE model. (Hu Jingnan, 2004).
Models based on vehicles driving characteristics (working condition model for short
hereinafter) can simulate vehicle emissions under various working conditions according to testing
data during transient emissions.
Recently, a model named IVE has been developed in Univ. of CaliforniaRiverside
(UCR).The core algorithm of this model is base on MOBILE model. With this model, over tens of
thousand sets of data from dynamometer tests following EPA, CARB and UCR are processed and
fundamental emission factors under FTP working condition are obtained. When dealing with
driving characteristics, the IVE model introduced two substitute parameters including VSP
(vehicle specific power) and ES to simulate vehicle emission under non-FTP working conditions.
VSP, from the view of physics, means the ratio of transient output power of vehicle to its weight,
comprehensively covering changes in kinetic energy and potential energy as well as work done to
overcome ground friction and air resistance of vehicles in motion. Advantages of using VSP as
substitute parameter lie on that according to testing results, transient emissions change regularly if
VSP is introduced and VSP is superior to other substitute parameters for changes in speed,
acceleration and road slope grade when vehicles are in motion are comprehensively taken into
consideration in this method.(Liu Huan, 2008)
CMEM model under development by Univ. of California, Riverside is a physical model set
up according to engine load and physical and chemical disciplines explaining formation of
pollutants, with all impact on emissions due to driving conditions considered. Researchers take the
dynamometer test to test more than 300 vehicles of 24 different styles under combined working
328
conditions within almost all driving situations, and then the model is established according to test
results. The model, with 47 parameters involved, can precisely simulate pollutant emissions from
vehicles in motion while, however, requiring intense data with high precision.
11.3.3
11.3.3.1
In this research, the PSR conceptual framework is adopted in which pressure refers to levels of
social and economic development and traffic demand of the public. Situation refers to conditions
of existing environment quality, use of land resources. Response refers to social efforts to solve
environmental problems related to the above situations, which can be used to appraisal
enforcement of environmental policies. Factors like attitudes of government which dominate these
activities and competence of government to solve these problems are also included in Response.
11.3.3.2
When to evaluate sustainability of urban traffic from the perspective of environment, we must first
establish an indicator system which can objectively reflect traffic sustainable development and its
impact on environment, a practical one to guideline policies so the following principles should be
observed.
(1) Principle of scientific approach
This indicator system should objectively reflect traffic sustainable development and predict
its future tendency to assess realization of traffic sustainable development with reliable statistics
resources and scientific ways of material processing.
(2) Principle of accessibility
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On the precondition of simplicity, indicators easy to calculate and get access should be
chosen to objectively reflect real situations in this field to make sure that the indicator system is
practical for us to make true assessment and evaluation on levels and capabilities of urban
sustainable development.
(3) Principle of comparability
Universally used units, average value or percentage of unit should be introduced as single
indicator in designing indicator system to realize comparability.
(4) Principle of dynamic
Provided that sustainable development is both a goal and a process, indicators on it should be
dynamic so as to reflect current situations and futures of urban sustainable development in terms
of environment, achieving the goal of reviewing the past to analyze the present and to predict the
future.
(5)Principle of guideline
The main goal of this indicator system is to provide government authorities of all levels with
reliable information for them to make related policies while in return macro control and
management from government authorities of all levels is the basis for sustainable development in
traffic of human society, so we must build up an effective and reasonable indicator system.
Based on above principles, we come up with the following indicator system demonstrated in
table 11-6, in which each parameter represents basic datum for evaluation.
AIM
A- To evaluate
urban
sustainable
traffic
environment
330
AIM
ORGANIZATON
O3-Indicators on
development of
urban
traffic
utilities
CONDITION
C7-Roads
and
facilities
construction
C8-Vehicle develop
ment
C9-Traffic quality
O4-Indicators on
capabilities for
environmental
protection
C10-Environmental
agencies buliding
FACTOR
discharged by vehicles
S16-Pre capita road area
S17-Road length
S18-Density of road network
S19-Volume of urban vehicle
stocks
S20-Volume of urban new vehicles
S21-Qualification rate of vehicles
going through annul checks
S22-Number of vehicles for public
transport shared by every 10,000
people
S23-Accessibility
S24-Time consumed for transport
S25-Number of monitoring stations
S26Environmental
authorities who reach
the legal standards in
monitoring
urban
environment
and
implementing
annual
check on vehicles
S27-Staff working in environmental
system
Figure 11-7 is added to reveal different levels various indicators above belonging to.
331
areas. (Unit: mg / m )
S6Concentration in central areas
SO2 concentration in central areas refers to the average concentration of SO2 in urban central
3
areas. (Unit: mg / m )
S7PM10 concentration in central areas
PM10 concentration in central areas refers to the average concentration of PM10 in urban
3
332
mij refers to number of people traveling from or to district i and district j either of which is
place of living for these tested people.
n
S sij mij
i 1 j 1
i 1 j 1
m
i 1 j 1
ij
,in
which
refers
to
accessibility of urban road network calculated with the commuting distance, T refers to
accessibility of urban road network calculated with the commuting time, sij and tij refer to
minimum distance and time between district i and j respectively and mij refers to number of
people traveling between district i and j one of which is the home of these people.
In fact, S and T stands for the average minimum commuting distance and time respectively
both of which reflect convenience for urban residents to go outside. The larger S and T is , the
worse the accessibility is while The smaller S and T is , the better accessibility is. In the same
city, improved traffic system can be reflected on accessibility.
S24Time consumed for commuting.
For physical and psychological reasons, there is always a limitation for urban residents to
333
tolerate in daily commuting time. It has been proved that there are distinct differences in the
maximum time to endure among residents with different commuting purposes in different cities of
different scales. The bigger the city scale is, the longer time can people endure during their
commuting. Here we define T , which is longer than common commuting hours of 90% residents
may need, as the maximum length of time acceptable to urban residents for commuting.
S26Environmental authorities who reach the legal standards in monitoring urban
environment and implementing annual check on vehicles
This is a comprehensive concept referring to numbers of units which has reached the
construction standards set by Ministry of Environmental Protection of PRC. Construction
standards can be found in following Notices: Notice to releasing construction standards of
environmental monitoring stations (for trial) (NO. 118 MEP 2002 ), Notice to releasing
construction standards of monitoring stations in radioactive environment (for trial) (NO. 158
MEP 2002 ) and Notice of opinions on furthering enhancing environmental monitoring (NO.
141 MEP 1999 ),
Environmental indicator system evaluating traffic sustainability fully reflect the overall levels
of sustainable traffic environment, which includes index calculated with linear weighting of every
single scalar indicator with the formula as following:
27
C j WU
i
j (i ) 100 , in which
i 1
Wi
C j refers to
comprehensively evaluating indicator in the j th year and U j (i ) refers to the exponential value
of indicator i in the j th year.
The weight of very single indicator can be calculated with discriminant matrix. Value of each
item in the matrix can be settled by consulting with experts and the square root method is adopted
to approximately calculate maximum eigenvalue and its eigenvector of the discriminant matrix. In
the end, weighting indicator of every single indicator in factor levels to the general aim, which is
evaluating environmental sustainability of urban traffic, can be obtained.
334
intend to set up indicator system with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method while
following indicators in environmental plans during the eleventh five-year period.
Steps for system building:
Step one: building up the hierarchic structure of policy making.
335
10
0.58
0.90
1.12
1.24
1.32
1.41
1.45
1.49
P,
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1 , 2 ,L L , R )T
The relative weight of n sub-criteria in the sub-criteria level P against every criterion Ci in the
criteria level is
(2)
(1l
(2)
, 2 l
(2)
,L L , nl
(2) T
) , l 1, 2,L L , R
(2)
j 1
Till now, through decomposing, analyzing and generalizing, we sequence these complicated
factors which may influence multi-goal decisions according to their own importance to identify
weights of their own, laying foundation for further comprehensive evaluation.
11.3.3.4
336
collected from real tests. With differences in traffic conditions among different districts of a city,
various running conditions should be collected in advance for a long time if we are going to
establish a driving condition model with length of 900-1200s to cover real conditions of this area.
Here highlights on how to establish a driving condition.
1Principles on choosing urban roads
When we try to establish a typical driving cycle for a city, make sure that the city is
considered as a whole and we must clearly find out the whole structure of the city in order to
divide it into different typical districts from which we pick up representative roads to collect data.
Parameters of regional characteristics in a city may cover such items as social and economic
factors (population, number of registered vehicles and family income), situations on land use (total
area, urbanized area, distance to downtown area and number of residents), conditions of traffic
system (the length of trunk roads in use, degree of crowding and condition of service of public
transport system), composition of ways of transportation (public transportation, privately-owned
vehicles, on foot and by bicycle) and so on.
We may choose the specific road through comparing basic driving parameters on various
roads. Researches show that the average speed plays a big role on the volume of urban vehicle
emissions. So we choose the specific road on the basis of average speeds, considering traffic flow,
degrees of crowding and what extent does it differ in traffic flows between in the mornings and at
nights as well to make sure that the road we choose can comprehensively reflect overall situations
of roads in the city.
2Data collection methods
Now, there are mainly three ways to collect data.
a) Car chase technique, which means vehicles installed with measuring instruments are set
to randomly chase various target vehicles on chosen road, keeping the same performance with
target vehicles, to get related data.
b)
c) Let car owners drive their own vehicles installed with measuring instruments to get their
running conditions on daily basis. More precise data are guaranteed with large number of testing
samples during this kind of data collection.
d) To closely follow traffic flow on the set road, just like obtaining the FTP75 driving cycle
on the set road of LA4. First, we should choose a routine representing typical running conditions
and set cars installed with measuring instruments to join the traffic flow and keep driving exactly
as vehicles in the flow do, repeating running back and forth to get test data.
The first three methods all require test data based on samples in large amount, test results of
which may be more close to real conditions while the first method is too critical to drivers skills
to apply and the test results from the second method are subject to drivers driving habits, so it is
now rarely used for its unsatisfactory results, the third one needs more test equipments which may
cost a large number of labor force and materials to maintain. The forth method, though data may
be not so precise as it is with the first methods mentioned above, is easier to apply and less
337
338
Emission factors can be calculated in two ways. One is the g/km method which represents the
quality of toxic gases discharged by vehicles within per unit distance they drive. The g/km
approach is now universally adopted by countries, which however, can not reveal the quality of
discharged gases when the vehicle is in idle speed which is an important running condition when it
comes to emission characteristics of vehicles running on roads. The other is the g/kg method
which represents the quality of toxic gases discharged by vehicles with per quality-unit fuels they
consume, though not sensitive to changes in speeds, providing quality of emissions under any
running conditions for with this method, efficiency of fuel combustion and tail gas emissions are
closely combined.
Factors influencing emission factors include Zero Mileage Level (ZML), Deterioration Rate
(DR), speed, running condition, background temperature, nature of fuel, cold boot-hot boot ratio,
rules on vehicle inspection and maintenance and others like using air-conditioner, load and
whether trailer truck is used.
Emission factors can be collected through bench experiment, test in tunnel, remote sensing
test by roads and test on roads among which the last three methods are all tests on real roads. In
this research, vehicles installed with measuring instruments will be set to run while data regarding
emissions will be collected. This way is more operable with which data regarding pollutants
emission can be collected in every seconds while however only limited number of vehicles can be
tested resulting in random data.
2. Approaches to collecting core parameters based on traffic planning
Most indicators in the indicator system can be obtained from urban statistics while annual
volume of pollutant emissions from vehicles should be calculated by researchers. Basic steps to
settle emission volume for evaluating environmental impact during traffic planning can be
outlined as following:
339
Research
conditions
on
working
Traffic planning
Prediction
condition
on
running
Prediction on vehicles
running
Emission model based on running conditions
Prediction on traffic
flow
Real emissions of vehicles
Prediction on vehicle
emissions
Table 11-8 Parameters on relationship between traffic flow and emission on urban roads.
Parameters
speed
Accerlatio
v
a
Specific po
ingal
n
wer
SP
Engine
load
Dischargin
g speed of CO2
O2
340
Simulated
value of CO2
C
v,a
The last two parameters are reserved for predicting emission of particulate matter only.
341
11.4
Case study
We, under the research on sustainable urban mobility program jointly launched by Tsinghua
University and BP, obtained a lot of first-hand data and materials after a short period of spot
interviews and researches in city X. This research, based on materials and data mentioned above,
aims to evaluating current influence of urban traffic on environment in this city through systematic
and scientific approaches to analyze basic materials in order to identify the bottleneck against
sustainable traffic development, predict future tendency as well as raise some suggestions
regarding environment for sustainable urban traffic.
342
11.4.1
The city X has boasted rapid economic progress in recent years. The annual growth rate of GDP in
the tenth five-year plan period reached over 12%. Quality of overall environment in the city X is
nice and it is monitored that in 2006, quality of air, underground water, potable water sources and
acoustical environment of the city X all reach related standards while quality of surface water
improved a lot. But with further economic development and economic goals set down by the
eleventh five-year plan, the city will encounter much greater environmental pressure, so it is
necessary for the city to pursue a sustainable development. Guided by the scientific outlook on
development, policy-makers of the city X are leading the people to follow a sustainable way to
development while there are still lots problems to be solved especially in the field of sustainable
traffic for influence imposed by traffic on environment has not been handled effectively.
11.4.1.1 Rapid economic growth, raised rate of urbanization.
The annual growth rate of GDP in the tenth five-year plan period reached over 12% (see Figure
11-12). In the end of year 2005, the population of all municipal districts has reached 877.8
thousand, going to be a megalopolis, which marks a population more than 1 million and the rate of
urbanization reaches 35.4%. During another five-year plan after the per-capita GDP reached 1000
USD, development of the city X s economy will witness a new round of rising.
Environmental quality
Environmental protection is proceeding smoothly with evident outcomes. The city X planed to
build itself to be the national model city in environmental protection in the future three years.
Recently the city has reached legal requirements of 12 indicators out of 27 indicators and there is
still potential for it to improve.
It is monitored that in 2006, quality of air, underground water, potable water sources and
acoustical environment of the city X all reach related standards while quality of surface water
improved a lot.
343
During the tenth five-year plan period, the average composite index on pollution kept stable
with a slight drop while the degree of air pollution kept stable. But the average composite index on
pollution in 2005 drop by 0.76 over that in 2000, which revealed that the pollution degree in the
end of the tenth five-year plan period distinctly dropped than that in the end of the ninth five-year
plan period. The standard-reaching rate of all pollutants generally went up except slightly down in
2003.
Because coal is the major fuel consumed in economic production and daily life in the city X,
air pollution in the city is mainly coal smoke pollution which is also called the reduced form
pollution. Coal burning is the major reason for particulate matter and much so2. Rainfalls always
concentrate in summer in which the quality of air is the best. In winter, more coals are needed for
heating, during which pollutants are not likely to spread because of thicker inversion layer near the
ground in the city. No acid rain has been found in this city till now.
Though with rapid economic growth and increased energy consumption, air quality of the
city X distinctly improved during the tenth five-year plan period and kept stable, owing to
increased emphasis on environmental protection which can be found in following implementing
measures: 1) adjustment on industrial structures including dismantling 40 production lines failing
to stably reach legal standards of 33 enterprises producing cement, shutting down dust emissions
by 24,000 tons per year; 2) further tightening measures on environmental protection including
cracking down grill stands and small boilers leading to serious pollutions by consuming coals,
introducing stoves using oil and gas to restaurants and tightening supervisions on construction
sites to reduce dust pollution; 3) environmental infrastructures are improved. Green cover
percentage in urban areas has reached 35.7%, 80% urban households has used gas in daily lives,
per capita green land has reached 6.5 square meters. All these specific measures guarantee better
urban environment.
11.4.2
344
Figure 11-14 Volume increase of motor bikes during 2000-2005 in the City X
345
In the city X, supervisions and management mainly focus on making existing and new vehicles
observe legal standards on vehicle emissions.
The government of the city X pays much attention to vehicle emissions and has released a
series of rules on this work.
In 1998, The government of the city X released the Temporary rules on prevention and
control on vehicle emissions while at 11th Dec of 2006, the same government again released
another Notice on further prevention and control on vehicle emissions to intensify prevention and
control on vehicle emissions.
The public security department actively helps the environment department to prevent and
control emission pollutions.
In 1999, the first check, annual check and random check when driving were first launched on
vehicles for their emission pollutions. Those who failed to meet legal standards on emissions in its
first check can not get License Plate from public security department while those who failed to
meet legal standards on emissions in annual or random check would be forbidden to run on roads.
With close cooperation between public security agencies and environment agencies, the Law on
prevention and control over atmospheric pollution of PRC was vigorously implemented and
vehicle pollution emissions were effectively controlled. In 2006, there was 316 days with air
quality marked excellent and good, accounting for 86.6% of whole days in 2006, 1.9% higher
year on year.
However, according to newly divided rights and responsibilities among different government
agencies, now the public security agency is not responsible for preventing and controlling vehicle
pollution emissions. In 2004, testing vehicle pollutions was removed from the responsibilities of
public security authorities according to the Rules on vehicle registration released by the Ministry
of Public Security, so local public security agencies hardly can get support from public security
authorities of central and provincial levels to help environment agencies to prevent and control
346
emission pollution. Since the second half year of 2006, the undertakings of annual check on
vehicles have been nearly stagnated.
The undertakings of preventing and controlling vehicle emission pollution feature
complicated, requiring systematic efforts from environment agencies and other authorities. But
existing related laws and regulations are far from sound and adequate, taking rules mandated in
the Law on prevention and control over atmospheric pollution of PRC for example, the first
section of the Article 31 stipulates that pollutants emission to air from vehicles and ships shall not
surpass the legal standards and the first section of the Article 33 stipulates that vehicles in use
which fail to reach legal standards on pollutants emission in the time they were produced are
forbidden from running on roads, neither of which stipulates sequent liabilities should they break
the rules mentioned above. So the environment authorities can not carry out their work
independently to implement related laws and regulations and need complementary administrative
measures from other authorities.
Pollutions caused by running vehicles discharging black tail gas especially by public
transportation top the problems frequently complained by residents in this city. Some residents
even complained that the environment authority fail to perform its duties to supervise, who
overlook the fact that the environment authority does not have the rights to check vehicles on
roads, to suspend driving licenses even vehicles themselves as well as to pose fine on those
vehicles breaking rules. But in other cities like Beijing, Dalian and Chongqing, supervision on
vehicles is carried out jointly by several related authorities involving public security agency,
transportation agency as well ad the environment agency.
11.4.3 Specific data of environmental indicator system for sustainable traffic in the
City X
The accessibility of data was tested through spot survey and questionnaire and original data were
listed as following in the table 11-9.
Table 11-9.Indicators for the environmental indicator system for urban sustainable traffic (City X)
Indicators for
urban
infrastructure
Indicators for
urban
environment
Indicator
Pre capita GDP
Percentage
of
tertiary
industry
Population density in central
areas
The green coverage rate in
constructed areas
Nox concentration in central
areas
SO2 concentration in central
areas
PM10 concentration in central
areas
Percentage of days with API
index less than 100 in one
year
Average noise on trunk roads
Average noise in regional
2000
2001
2002
5252.05
5650.62
6166.67
yuan
34.5
4205
cap/km
38.74
4030
39.53
4153
Unit
mg/m3
mg/m3
mg/m3
%
69.94
dB(A)
60
dB(A)
347
areas
Annual volume of CO
discharged by vehicles
Annual volume of Nox
discharged by vehicles
Annual volume of VOC
discharged by vehicles
Annual volume of PM10
t
t
t
t
discharged by vehicles
Indicators for
development of
urban traffic
utilities
4.42
Road length
206
206
48496
56853
5.54
m2
211.01
km
5.81
km/km2
65693
A vehicle
A vehicle
%
4.17
4.35
Number
of
stations
Environmental
monitoring
s
26
26
26
authorities
monitoring
environment
urban
and
working
in
887
1058
cap
environmental system
Indicators for
urban
infrastructure
Indicator
Pre capita GDP
Percentage
of
tertiary
industry
Population density in central
areas
The green coverage rate in
constructed areas
2003
2004
2005
6839.279
8191.975
9539.705
yuan
34.4
32.0
33.5
4270.588
4942.781
5022.995
cap/km
40.31
39.91
39.59
348
Unit
Indicators for
urban
environment
52.2
0.040
mg/m3
0.043
mg/m3
0.093
mg/m3
86.6
55
dB(A)
52.2
dB(A)
t
t
t
t
discharged by vehicles
Indicators for
development of
urban traffic
utilities
6.13
6.12
6.41
m2
Road length
223
245.61
206
km
1.2
1.31
3.11
km/km2
65178
126654
75
5.51
5.16
5.26
Number
of
stations
Environmental
monitoring
s
10
10
10
authorities
monitoring
environment
urban
and
working
in
1208
cap
environmental system
Note:
1.Data regarding NOx concentration in central areas, SO2 concentration in central areas, PM10
349
concentration in central areas, Percentage of days with API index less than 100 in one year,
Average noise on trunk roads and Average noise in regional areas are all kept in the database of
Environmental Protection Bureau of City X and we failed to get these data for recent work
adjustment of this bureau.
2. GB14761.693 is followed during annual check on vehicles using diesel while GB14761.5
93 is followed for vehicles using gasoline in the City X.
3.On accessibility. Indicators of time consumed during commuting relay on great amount of spot
interviews with urban residents which we failed to get as well, however we kept this parameter for
its importance on assessing traffic quality.
4. For those data not obtained, related administrative staffs were required to score them in the
questionnaires.
Seriously lack of data, we spread united questionnaires to related administrative staffs in the
City X, meanwhile providing guidelines and principles for scoring in order to get scores
standardized . For those data which is impossible for us to get, we marked 0. In the end, we got
scores of each indicators of the City X in recent three years as following:
Indicators
for urban
infrastructure
Indicators
for urban
environment
Indicator
Pre capita GDP
0.25
0.31
0.37
0.16
0.17
0.17
0.80
0.80
0.78
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.56
0.78
0.58
0.63
0.68
0.56
0.60
0.56
0.78
0.83
0.86
0.80
0.90
1.00
0.80
0.90
1.00
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Criteria
on
annual
2003
check
for
2004
2005
vehicles
Annual volume of CO discharged
by vehicles
Annual volume of Nox discharged
by vehicles
Annual volume of VOC discharged
by vehicles
Annual volume of PM10 discharged
350
by vehicles
Pre capita road area
0.61
0.61
0.64
Road length
0.45
0.49
0.41
0.40
0.40
0.70
of urban
0.50
0.40
0.30
traffic
0.60
0.50
0.30
utilities
0.30
0.30
0.20
0.20
0.18
0.16
Accessibility
0.70
0.80
0.85
0.70
0.80
0.84
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.50
Indicators
for
development
Indicators
Environmental
for
capabilities
of
reach
the
authorities
legal
standards
in
environment
who
check
on
vehicles
protection
Staff working in environmental
system
Score
2003
45.0
2004
47.2
2005
49.8
From table 11-11, we can conclude that at present, the level of traffic environment
sustainability from the perspective of still remain low. But with gradually rising tendency of
indicators of all levels, the traffic environment of the City X is heading for sustainable
development.
11.5
Summary
Impact of urban traffic on environment refers to influence brought by urban traffic activities on
351
urban, regional even global environment. Nowadays, atmospheric pollutions in local areas,
regions and the globe are interacting with each other, leading to mixed influence. Particulate
matter is the major pollutant influencing urban air quality in China with PM10 the primary
atmospheric pollutant in over 90% provincial capital cities in China. Though there are various
characteristics of urban atmospheric pollutions according to different geological locations in
China, it can be concluded that the pollution caused by vehicle emissions is getting heavier after
analyzing data from air quality monitoring in recent years.
The relationship between traffic activities and the environmental quality features interactive,
which means each one can influence, restrict and lead to the other. On one hand, when regarding
traffic activities as the cause and environmental quality as the effect, the environmental externality
caused by traffic activities would pose adverse impact on local, regional as well as global
environment. On the other hand, the environmental quality as well poses a series of requirements
and restrictions on transport activities especially in terms of technology, vehicle stocks and usage.
In China, technological approaches to control vehicle emission include eliminating lead gasoline
used in vehicles, applying EFI and three-way catalytic converter in gasoline vehicles and widely
spreading Turbocharged Technique to diesel vehicles. Institutionally, environmental authorities
have taken the leading role in regulating and controlling pollutant emissions and technologically,
widely-used foreign mature technologies against emission pollution have been adopted.
Analyzing in quantity relations between various influencing factors and their impact on
environment is the basis for raising and supporting control measures against pollutions caused by
vehicles. Impact of urban traffic on environment can be analyzed through setting up a indicator
system to evaluate sustainability of urban traffic from the perspective of its impact on
environment. During the evaluation, we should be aware of that impact of urban traffic on
environment is not only decided by internal factors like engine technologies and pollution
controlling technologies
but also by external factors including road planning, urban
characteristics and current situations and capacity of urban environment. Generally speaking,
these influencing factors mentioned above can be divided into four categories: indicators for urban
infrastructure, indicators for urban environmental situation, indicators for development of urban
traffic facilities as well as indicators for ability development to fulfill environmental protection,
among which emission amount can be regarded as the core factor. The emission level of vehicles
is closely related to influencing factors related to vehicle technologies, vehicle usage and driving
conditions of vehicles as well as factors like oil quality, environmental temperature and moisture.
In this research, we intend to obtain environmental situations supporting sustainable traffic
development through case studies in cities of different levels by setting up an evaluation system
with related environmental indicators. Most of these indicators can be directly obtained from
urban statistics while the annual volume, the key indicator, must be calculated by researchers
through setting up driving conditions, identifying emission factors (through emission test or
emission factor model) and setting up emission inventory.
At the end of this chapter, we focus on relations between characteristics of urban traffic flow
and emissions, the key parts of which we think fall on choosing the proper parameters and finding
out their relevance to emission factors. The right parameters can manage to bridge characteristics
of urban traffic flow and emissions.
352
References
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[2] China Statistical Yearbook (2007), Beijing, China Statistic Publishing House, 2007.
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on Sustainable Development of Urban Traffic Environment, Global research and development
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Vehicles, Beijing, China Environmental Science Publishing house, 2000
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Conditions, Beijing, Doctoral dissertations of Tsinghua University, 2005
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Development of Urban Traffic System, Beijing: Science Publishing House, 2004.
353
Introduction
Vehicles are playing an important role with the development of the cities despite the rapid
development of the urban public rail transportation. In general, automobiles are playing the
dominant role in the urban transportation. Automotive technologies will directly influence on-road
safety, energy supply and environment. It could also affect the efficiency of the city.
With the development of the ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) technologies and
information technologies of the road traffic, the probability of accidents reduced greatly. In the
future probably it could be guaranteed by the vehicle technologies that there were no collisions or
"zero accident."
Traditional fossil fuels are getting less and less, so people are continuously seeking new
alternative fuels. Hydrogen fuel, bio-fuels and electricity can, to some extent, alleviate the overreliance on fossil fuels, but in order to effectively make use of these new fuels and new energy so
that urban traffic can develop in a sustainable way, we must have advanced automotive
technologies to support it.
Most pollutants in the cities are produced by cars, especially in big cities that are developing
fast (e.g. Beijing and Shanghai), more than 50% of the major harmful pollutants, such as HC,
NOX and PM, are produced by cars.
This chapter will discuss the impacts of the automobile technologies on urban transportation.
12.2
354
second biggest car consumer only behind the United States in the world.
Figure 12-2 automobile population in China(Noted: the automobile population including the
355
356
357
358
type
Non-motor
drivers faults
human
factors
vehicle
359
classification
type
violation of animal force vehicles etc
Pedestrians/passengers
fault
Road condition and environment
Human factors include drunk driving, fatigue driving, misjudging, violation of traffic
regulations and pedestrians illegal crossing etc. The vehicles faults are mainly the mechanical
failure including the braking failure, steering failure etc. Road conditions include the environment,
such as the bad road condition caused by the bad weather and the bad visibility etc. Social factors
include bad lighting, poor management etc.
Through analysis it is found that among the causes of the accidents, human factors are the
dominant ones. Nearly 90% of the deaths are caused by people and 70% (among the human
factors) are caused by the drivers. The traffic safety consciousness of the participants is weak and
overall quality is low, so most traffic accidents are caused by people. People must be considered
in the traffic safety management and this is the main difference between road traffic safety and
marine traffic safety, air traffic safety. The coordination between people and
machinery/environment is particularly important. From China's geographical distribution for
traffic accidents we can see that traffic accidents occur more frequently in big cities (such as
Shanghai and Beijing). So more attention in management should be paid to these big cities, and
with the development of our country, some middle-size cities will gradually change into larger
ones. Thats why we should first solve the traffic safety and related management problems in the
big cities.
In addition, the quality of the roads has great impact on the traffic safety, there are more
accidents and death on second-class and third-class highway, (there are few accidents on
highways, ?????) however, due to high speed, large flow on the highway, the damages of accidents
are more serious. So highways also need special attention.
Attention should be paid in management (such as strict law enforcement and strengthen
safety awareness education) and technologies (develop automobile safety technologies and traffic
management technologies) in order to reduce the traffic accidents. In one high level forum for the
vehicle safety in Beijing 2007, Nissan Automobile Co. Ltd raised 5 proposals to improve the road
safety in China, including setting the targets of reducing the accident death, the
collection/analyzing/making public of the accidents data, traffic safety education, the design and
construction of traffic facility and introduction of advanced regulations.
360
limits of passenger cars, and 444 types of cars from 55 enterprises can not meet the standards.
Figure 12-8 statistical results in fuel consumption from the newly produced
passenger cars
The test method for passenger cars fuel consumption is based on GB / T 19233-2003 "Light
Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption Test Method", and the cars are tested on the cell to get the
comprehensive fuel consumption in the city cycle and EUDC (extra urban driving cycle). Figure
12-8 shows the statistical fuel consumption result from the two batches of 2783 types of car
information that are released by the Development and Reform Commission. From the figure it can
be seen that the total masses of the second batch of cars are increased, mainly because the number
of luxury cars, SUV, MPV and minibuses has greatly increased. The fuel consumption of the
passenger cars increases with the increase of the masses. Although the cars promulgated can meet
the fuel consumption standard for the first step and a lot of cars can meet the second step, there are
still a lot of cars that can not meet the second step standard. The latest produced passenger cars
must meet the second step standard from 1/1/2009, so a lot of domestic automobile enterprises are
facing the pressure to use advanced automotive technologies to reduce the fuel consumption
during a short period of time. At the same time, they also meet the dual pressure of the strict
regulations and the reduction of the cost.
361
362
363
12.3
transport
It is clear that urban transportation in China will face the great challenges on road traffic safety,
fuel consumption, emissions and so on. So we must find ways to make the automobiles clean and
energy-saving by means of choosing the right traffic tools macroscopically and developing
advanced automobile technologies etc. Three aspects will be discussed in this section: in the field
of the urban traffic construction, traffic tools that meet the requirement of the sustainable urban
mobility should be chosen; in the field of automobile power technologies, traditional vehicles and
vehicles with new type of energy should both be paid great attention to. The traditional vehicles
should apply on advanced technologies and the new energy vehicles should be popularized ;
considering the ITS (intelligent transportation technology), on board equipments, automobile
controlling system and safety system technologies should be developed and applied in order to
make the ITS more swift, accurate, safe, convenient and comfortable.
364
seen from the table that road traffic is the most dangerous among the four kinds of travelling: road,
sea, air and rail. The number of people died in road traffic accidents is 27 times as many as the
people died by air or by rail.
In road traffic there are big differences by using different kinds of traffic tool e.g. two-wheel
vehicles, on foot, bicycles, cars, bus and long-distance bus. In EU the death threaten of two-wheel
vehicle driver is 20 times as high as the car driver. Taking a car will be 7-9 times as safe as
bicycles or on foot, but still 10 times as dangerous as taking a bus. All these calculations are based
on the travel distance. Public transportation is still the safest way when considering the total safety
factors even if considering the danger before and after taking the train/bus or bicycles.
Table 12-2 2001-2002 per 0.1 billion passenger kilometers and number of deaths of every 0.1
billion passenger in EU
Death/kilometers
per
billion passengers (a)
roads(total)
0.1
0.95
29
two-wheel vehicles
13.8
440
on foot
6.4
75
bicycles
5.4
25
automobiles
0.7
25
0.07
ships
0.25
16
air
0.035
rails
0.035
Notea. passenger kilometers refer to the distance that travel in certain ways
b. travel hours refer to the total travel hours of all the passengers in certain ways.
From the research from Tsinghua University, we can conclude that when the number of
passenger increases in a car, the total fuel consumption will increase, but the fuel consumption of
one passenger on average will reduce greatly. Figure 12-13 shows that when the passenger number
increased from one to five, the fuel consumption per person could decrease 80%. The average fuel
consumption of a bus is 40L/100km, and there are usually 100 persons on a bus, so the average
fuel consumption for one person is 0.4L/100km, less than taking the private cars. The fuel
consumption and exhaust of CO2 will be greatly decreased if taking buses to work instead of cars.
Choosing the buses which can carry more passengers will be good for energy saving, traffic jam
and economic.
365
Figure 12-14 CO2 emission (g) of carrying per person per kilometer by different traffic tools
From the analysis above we can see that in order to construct a sustainable urban traffic
system, public transportation and rail transportation should be developed: open up the bus rapid
366
transient access in the main roads and establish the traffic system of which public transportation is
the subject, rail transportation is dominant and private car is supplement.
367
and a longer life. Up to now, 90% diesel vehicles are sold in Europe all over the world and diesel
vehicles share 40% of the European market. It is estimated that in 2010 diesel vehicles will
account for 50% of the automobile market in European.
Diesel vehicles produce more NOx and PM and will do great harm to the environment.
Although the after-treatment technologies such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR), NOx
absorption and deoxidation technology and PM continuous catalytic regeneration etc. can reduce
the emission of NOx and PM, the after-treatment equipments are complicated and expensive. The
challenge for diesel engines is whether they can meet the strict emission regulations in the future.
In Japan, diesel engines are hard to make a breakthrough in the market because of the strict
emission regulations and the governments encouragement of hybrid. In American, although the
introduction of the low-sulfur fuel makes diesel engines a feasible choice, the Tier 2 emissions
regulations also limit the development of the diesel. Another obstacle for diesel engines in the
American market is to obtain the favor of the users: those who are familiar with the diesel cars in
70s which are noisy and with a lot of black smoke may be skeptical about diesel cars. The
manufactures will have to make great effort to convince the customers that modern diesel engines
are more advanced than the early ones. Nevertheless, whether the regulation makers and
customers support the development of diesel engines, they should also be paid attention to. In
Europe, although the regulation is relatively loose, the EU-V standard will be a great challenge for
the automobile enterprises.
According to statistics, among the production of vehicles in China in 2002, 97% of the heavy,
medium duty trucks are with diesel engines, 88% of the light trucks are using diesel engines; 79%
of the large, medium passenger cars are with diesel engines, 27.6% of the light-passenger cars are
with diesel engines; only few cars are using diesel engines and diesel engines are still at its first
stage.
From the 1990s, the ratio of diesel vehicles to gasoline vehicles is increasing in China from
10% in 90s to 30%. The ratio began to decrease after 2001 because the production and sales of
cars increase greatly, much faster than other kind of vehicles. Another reason is the proportion of
the diesel is low.
China's diesel vehicles are mostly developed domestically except some diesel engines in cars.
The performances are not good, the technologies are not advanced and the emissions are bad.
Although some of them are meet the requirement of EU-III emission regulations, there is also a
great gap from the foreign counties in the field of electronic control distribution pumps, high
pressure common rail, pump nozzle and after-treatment technologies.
Diesel vehicles should be mainly used on vehicles that are not in central cities, such as
agricultural vehicles, trucks, long-distance buses etc. The diesel emission control technology and
the promotion of the fuel quality should be the priority. Diesel vehicles should be developed first
when the fuel that meets the requirement of low-emission is sufficient.
368
(GHG)emissions of vehicle the vehicles using pure bio-fuel will not release CO2, and can
reduce of the emission of CO and PM etc. compared with gasoline and diesel. The Natural
Resources Defense Council (NRDC) of the U.S.A has estimated that by 2050 the bio-fuels of the
U.S.A. can reduce the emissions of GHG by 1.7 billion tons each year, that equivalent to over
80% of the emissions from transportation of the U.S.A in2002, and account for 22% of the total
emissions. Clean renewable bio-fuels have become the trend of the new energy development all
over the world as a near-term target. Bio-fuel vehicles are one of the effective transition solutions
between current conventional internal combustion engine vehicle and future fuel cell vehicles. Gas
mainly refers to CNG and LPG. Methane is the main component of Compressed Natural Gas
(CNG). Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is a by-product during fuel exploitation and fuel refining
process, its main ingredient is propane and butane. The fuel entering the engine in the form of gas
can be evenly mixed with the air, making the mixture burn fully, substantially reducing the
emission of CO and HC, and there basically is no particulate matter emission. Gas-fuelled vehicle
possesses the most mature technologies of clean-alternative-energy vehicle, and has been used as
buses and taxis in some cities in China. Electric vehicles totally or partly rely on electricity for
driven energy, including battery, hybrid and fuel cell. Electric vehicles have two prominent
advantages: only a little emissions and high energy efficiency. Particularly fuel cell electric
vehicles, in the course of traveling, have a zero-pollution emission (emissions product is water),
the energy conversion efficiency reaches 60 to 70%, thus it is taken as the perfect fashion of
vehicle driven energy. However, subject to battery technology vehicles purely asking electricity
for driven-energy are still facing the technology issues on short driving distance, charging
difficulty, etc. Thus pure electric vehicles can only serve well in short-distance and local areas,
such as entertainment places and service facilities. The following parts emphasize on the
popularization and application on bio-ethanol cars, bio-diesel vehicles, hybrid vehicles and fuel
cell vehicles.
(1) Bio-ethanol cars
Ethanol is a kind of oxygenated fuel with higher octane number and higher heat efficiency
and lower pollutant emission, produced by fermentation of rich-carbohydrate (starch, sugar or
cellulose). Ethanol can be used as sparkle ignition engine fuel dependently or by mixed with
gasoline while it can also be ignited by compression when mixing with diesel at a low percentage.
Considering the outstanding characteristics of serving as alternative of petroleum, and remarkably
reducing particle and soot emission, Tsinghua University did some research on the application of
ethanol in diesel engine, which comes mainly in forms of pre-mixed fuel, dual-fuel online mixing
and dual-fuel injection. Test results show that (fig 12-15) mixture fuel of E10 and E30 can reduce
soot emission by 42% and 74% respectively at BMEP=0.7MPa. Smoke-free combustion can be
achieved for diesel engine when ethanol proportion is higher than 60% or oxygen proportion is
higher than 20%.
369
3.5
3.0
Rb/BSU
2.5
2.0
1.5
n=1540 r/min
E0
E10
E30
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
pme/MPa
370
cannot serve as the main solution to petroleum shortage and energy crisis.
On June 7th 2007 State Council held a meeting on renewable energy and decided to cease
under-construction coal chemical projects and grain ethanol fuel projects. And keep developing
non-grain ethanol fuel under the condition of no farmer land occupation, no grain consumption
and no ecological environmental demolishing. Besides the existing 4 projects using grains to
produce ethanol the government will not approve any new ones. And the existing ones will be
gradually adapted to non-grain alternative energy.
(2) bio-diesel vehicles
Biodiesel is a kind of fuel which is esterificated from oil crops such as soybean, rapeseed, oil
fruits of some plants such as oil palm and Chinese pistache, oil aquatic plants such as projects
microalgae, animal fats and wasted food oil. The octane number and oxygen content of the biodiesel is high so that the burning is complete and the emissions of CO, HC and PM are low. As the
bio-diesel contains no sulfur and aromatic component, the emissions of sulfur and PAH are very
low. So the bio-diesel is a good alternative as a kind of clean fuel for CI engine. The bio-diesel can
be used directly by mixed with the fossil diesel. The engines do not need to be changed when the
proportion of bio-diesel is low (10% to 20%). The performance of the mixed fuel is the same as
the diesel and the fuel storage and transportation equipments are also universal. There is no need
for basic faculty re-construction.
Tsinghua University has studied the emission reduction effect of the bio-diesel on an EU-III
diesel engine. The results show (figure 12-16) that the bio-diesel and diesel can be mixed in any
proportion without changing the engine and the PM can be reduced by 10%-60%. The emission of
DS (dry soot) can be almost zero if increase the oxygen content in the fuel.
371
enzyme method and it is difficult to produce in industrial-scale. Chemical method can be divided
into cracking, hydrolysis esterification and transesterification. As the stability of the oil produced
by moderate breaking chains method is not good, bio-diesel is usually produced by
transesterification or hydrolysis esterification. The main ingredient is fatty acid single akkyl ester.
At present, the production ratio of diesel to gasoline is 1.8, but the consumption of the ratio is
more than 2.0. The consumption in some cities such as Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou is more
than 2.5. The contradictions between the diesel and gasoline are becoming more and more serious
with the speeding up development of the western region and the starting of some major
infrastructure projects which have great influence on the national economy. Developing bio-diesel,
adjusting the current structure of oil, increasing the ratio of diesel and gasoline will be of great
significance in releasing the supply of the diesel in China.
The cost is the biggest problem for the bio-diesel. At present, the price of soya bean oil and
rapeseed oil is about 6000 RMB / ton and the price will be even higher if the consumption in the
processing of the bio-diesel is added. The price of the bio-diesel produced from the food oil is
much higher than the diesel, so more government subsidies are needed in order to promote the
bio-diesel in a large scale. The cost of producing bio-diesel from wasted food oil is low and will
not occupy the cultivated land. In addition, the recycle of the wasted oil will be good to the
environment. However, the quality and stability of this kind of fuel is hard to say.
China is now building the regulations about the standard for bio-diesel about the mixing ratio
in order to provide guarantee of the production, promoting and using of the bio-diesel.
(3) Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Hybrid vehicles (HEVs) are the combination of electric drive (motor and batteries) and
internal combustion engines. The on-line electric power can be used to change the mix extent.
Full-hybrid vehicles allow full use of the electric power to drive the vehicles when running and the
partial-hybrid vehicles only use the motor when recycling the braking energy and idling. HEVs
can reduce the CO2 by 50% from well to wheel compared with the conventional engines. And
HEVs do not face the restrict emission regulations as the diesels do. HEVs are good to the
environment and are good choices even in Europe where diesel cars are popular because the
enterprises want to reduce the CO2 emission to 140g/km or even 120g/km in the future. In Japan,
because of incentive policies, HEVs are accelerating to occupy the automotive market.
DaimlerChrysler, Ford and General Motors are also accelerating their pace in Hybrid. This means
that the competition between the automobile enterprises in Hybrid will be intense.
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Figure 12-17 the difference in fuel consumption under different cycles between hybrid and
conventional gasoline vehicles
Tsinghua University has studied the fuel consumption and emissions of the Hybrid under
different driving-cycles by means of road test and vehicle dynamometer test. The effect on energysaving is obvious compared with the conventional gasoline vehicles. The difference of the fuel
consumption under different cycles is shown in figure 12-17. The hybrid can save about 32% fuel
than that of ordinary vehicle under the NEDC driving-cycle which is widely used in China and can
save about 44% fuel under the Beijing-cycle which is close to the road condition in the urban of
Beijing.
The hybrid can save fuel by 32%, 25%, 29% and 44% under the NEDC driving-cycle, Japancycle, US-cycle and Beijing-cycle compared with the conventional vehicle. The reason that the
fuel consumption varied from cycle to cycle is that hybrid has the smaller engine and the
temperature of the engine increases quickly. As the Japan-cycle is tested after the warming-up on
the engine, the advantage of the temperature is not obvious. Thats why the energy-saving
efficiency is lower than the other three cycles which are tested from the cold start. The energysaving efficiency increases with the decrease of the velocity. As the average velocity of the ECE
driving-cycle is the lowest one, the effect on energy-saving is most obvious.
Further analysis has been made in the energy-saving effect for hybrid vehicles under the
urban and high-speed driving conditions. NEDC driving-cycle and EUDC driving-cycle are
considered respectively. Figure 12-18 shows that hybrid can save fuel by 48% in the urban and
13% on the highway. Meanwhile, the Beijing-cycle is close to the ECE-cycle in the fuel economy.
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Figure 12-18 contrast of the fuel consumption between gasoline vehicles and hybrid under
NEDC cycle by drum test
Figure 12-19 contrast of the fuel consumption between petrol vehicles and
hybrid on road test
Figure 12-19 is the comparison of the fuel consumption between gasoline and hybrid vehicles
on road test which is carried out on the Beijing's actual roads. It can be seen from the figure,
hybrid can save 36%~ 41% fuel on the real roads in Beijing and the comprehensive energy-saving
effect on the four kinds of integrated roads is about 38%. Hybrid should be promoted to apply on
vehicles such as taxis and buses that are running in the urban.
In automotive field, the cost / benefit (trade-off) of the hybrid is always in dispute. On the
issue of benefit, in most conditions the engine just output part of the power. For example, when
running on the highway, only 20 horsepower is needed to drive electrical accessories to overcome
the resistance between the tires and ground and the resistance of air. The rest of the power is used
to start-up, accelerate and overtake. In fact, most drivers will use only 1% of the full-power during
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total time. The power system of the hybrid is the combination of the motor and the conventional
gasoline engine. The engine can be optimized (e.g. reducing displacement) so that the engine can
run in maximum efficiency area. The motor will provide the extra power when accelerating and
recycle the energy of braking. Hybrid vehicles use small displacement engines and the engine can
be more efficient in fuel economy and emissions (table 12-3).
Table 12-3 hybrid benefit- the comparison between Civic hybrid and Civic
gasoline vehicles
items
proportion
-29%
CO2
-29%
CO
-41%
NOx
-89%
HC
-27%
cost
cooling
systems
and
battery
$ 1,400
$ 1,400
Motor(50kW)
$ 600
$ 600
Upgrade transmission
$ 500
Total cost
$ 3,500
375
profits. At present, HEVs are $ 3,000 to $ 4,000 more expensive than the conventional vehicles it
is the disadvantage.
China FAW Group cooperates with Toyota to manufacture Toyota Prius hybrid car in 2005.
FAW designed the hybrid city bus independently which has been checked and accepted in the
863 electric project. Dongfeng's hybrid bus has finished the test in Jun of 2005. And also be
checked and accepted. Chang'an has produced the demo-vehicle called Lingyang which has the
independent intellectual property. Changan CV9 is equipped with the hybrid technology will be
ready for assembly at the end of 2005. Chery has set up a national energy conservation and
environmental protection Automotive Engineering Technology Research Center and will detect
the hybrid vehicles soon. Shanghai Maple Automobile cooperated with Tongji University and will
achieve the commercialization of the hybrid in three years. SAIC has signed the agreement with
Jiaotong University and Tongji University about the new energy. Hybrid designed by SAIC and
GM will be put into use at the end of the year. Hybrid designed by SAIC and VW is planned to put
into small production in Jun of 2008
In China, the commercialization of HEVs will meet a lot of difficulties and challenges
including the development of energy storage equipment which has high energy density and high
power density, the development of electronic equipments which is low cost but high efficiency and
the development of engines with high fuel economy but low emissions. In HEVs the gap of
technologies and industrialization between China and other countries is small. In addition, we
have a solid foundation and achievements in this field. However, we are still in the initial stage of
industrialization.
(4) Fuel cell electric vehicles
Fuel cell is one kind of device which can convert the chemical energy of hydrogen and
oxygen into electric energy directly by the way of electrode reactions. Its greatest feature is that
there is no burning in the process of conversion, and it has high-energy conversion efficiency. The
actual efficiency can reach 2 to 3 times of internal combustion engine. The biggest advantage of
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is high efficiency and zero-emissions (only exhaust water), which
solves the problem of pollution by the automobiles fundamentally. In addition, it has advantage of
fuel diversification and low noise.
If the hydrogen energy can be achieved from renewable energy (such as solar energy or wind
energy), then there will be no CO2 emissions in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, at present,
more than 90% of the hydrogen gas is obtained from the fossil fuel. Hydrogen can also be
obtained from transforming traditional fossil fuel on the car, but this transformation process will
bring CO2 emissions. The "wells to wheels" CO2 emissions on fuel cell vehicles will be same in
quantity with the CO2 emissions of hybrid vehicles in the foreseeable future, since it is impossible
to generate hydrogen fuel from renewable sources largely in the next 10 years.
The vehicle companies are very cautious to produce fuel cell vehicles in large-scale, since
there were once unrealistic expectations about the fuel cell vehicles market in the late 1990s.
However, once such an important breakthrough potential technology eventually enter the market,
vehicle companies cannot afford the risks of ignoring the technology. Therefore, its a key strategy
challenge to build leader position in the field of fuel cell vehicles for the present vehicle
companies and these which hope to grow into important companies by the year of 2015. And a
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real competition focusing on fuel cell technology in the automobile industry has begun. But the
vehicle companies at the leading position in the fuel cell technology have gradually formed a
consensus that the competition will be a very long process. On the Tokyo and Detroit Auto Show
in 2005, GM announced a new fuel cell concept vehicle (Sequel), the objective of which is to
design and verify the reliability of the driven system of fuel cell so that it can compete with the
current internal combustion engine, and to be mass-produced. But GM did not give the timetable
of the commercialization. Therefore, the time of 2010 some people expected there will be
breakthrough technology of fuel cell vehicle has been postponed to 2015, perhaps even later.
Many experts believe that fuel cell technology will build a long-term technology transfer from the
current petrol vehicles, and hybrid gasoline, diesel and renewable bio-fuels can improve vehicle
efficiency in the near future and can achieve the shift from fossil fuel.
The key challenges on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are hydrogen production, transportation
and cost. Its a very arduous task to find solutions to find hydrogen sources for vehicle. According
to most people estimation, the fuel cell technology in cost, size, durability and easy
manufacturing and other aspects must raise for 10 to 100 times before entirely feasible. The best
foreground of fuel cell vehicles is that there is 10 years at least before commercial operation.
Many experts believe that there is about 20 to 40 years before the mass production of fuel cell
vehicles.
China Demonstration of Fuel-Cell Bus Commercialization Project is a project supported by
Chinese Government, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and United Nations Development
Program (UNDP), the implementation of the project is organized by Chinese Ministry of Science
and Technology, Beijing, and Shanghai, officially started in 2003. The total funding of this project
reached 32.36 million U.S. dollars. Beijing and Shanghai would each purchase six fuel cell buses
which started demonstration running in the second half of 2005, and the goal is to run for 1.6
million kilometers accumulated by the 12 cars.
The "Beyond" series of fuel cell cars are developed by Tongji University and Shanghai Brief
introduction Technology Co., Ltd. together. The 10 fuel cell cars started demonstration running as
taxis in the second half of 2005 which are on the prototype of 3rd beyond. The fuel cell city bus
which is developed by Tsinghua University, Beijing Bus Plant, and other units, using the fuel cell
and battery hybrid driven type, has been assessing the total distance of running over 10,000 km.
The compilation of national standards of China's fuel cell vehicles has been launched in
Shanghai, including two basic criteria of "fuel cell cars terms" and "fuel cell vehicles safety
requirements", will be completed in 2008. A special project team formed of more than 10 senior
scientific and technological persons who come from National Automotive Standardization
Technical Committee, the China Automotive Technology & Research Center, Tongji University ,
SAIC, other institutions and enterprises, is expected to form the draft of "fuel cell cars terms" and
" fuel cell vehicles vehicle safety requirements " in late 2007.
377
traffic. With the development of highways and improvement of vehicle safety performance,
vehicle speed becomes faster in recent years. Because of the increase of vehicle speed, vehicle
amount, increasingly busy transportation situation and increase of car accidents, more and more
casualties and property losses are caused, which has become an urgent social problem. Hence, the
road traffic management technology and automobile safety play an important role in assuring the
safety of road traffic.
378
379
improve management of both traffic management departments and enterprises and make
efficiency and resource out of management.
380
by 2010. North European countries even declare their zero death program. Besides traffic safety
education and strict regulation, to utilize VIT technologies to enhance driving safety of vehicles is
the most important and effective way to achieve these goals.
(2) Safety drive assistance and driver monitoring system will become the emphasis of recent
VIT technology development
According to relevant data, even though there are many factors that lead to an accident, 70%
of them are directly connected to the drivers. The mental condition, physical condition and
psychical emotion are the direct internal factors of accident. Technical approach to real-time
monitoring of drivers concentration on driving and his being dozing or not, which calls driver
monitoring system, is necessary to overcome this issue. For example, camera and other kinds of
sensors can be used to monitoring facial expressions, open-extent of eyes, blinking frequency etc
of the driver, with sonic and optical alarms implemented. Vehicle safety drive assistance system
comprehensively monitors current vehicle condition, and automobiles and obstacles around. In
condition of potential safety problems it will warn the drivers. Safe drive assistance and driver
monitoring system is becoming the development emphasis of ITS.
Some VIT technologies such as vehicle navigation system have developed more and more
complicated, entering the stage of mass commercial application. After 10 years of development,
Japan has built up a road transportation information service network that covers every district of
the nation. By August 2004, as many as 10 million sets of vehicle navigation system had been
installed on vehicles in Japan. And 9 new vehicle safety technologies are newly developed,
including dozing-alarm system, emergency braking pre-alarm system, tire-pressure monitoring
system, obstacle-pass-by system, high adaptive and high speed system, hydraulic braking system,
night pedestrian monitoring system, emergency automatic reporting system and windshield glass
small-bead surface treatment, will gradually come into use on vehicles. Scientific researchers in
Germany combined GPS and airbag to devise a multifunctional type of airbag, whose
communication equipment will report the accurate location of the vehicle as quickly as possible to
the nearest police station and hospital at its deployment. American Ford Research Center has built
up an on-board vehicle information platform on Galaxy model and developed two types of stable
anti-interference communication protocol for information exchange between stable information
service center and mobile on-board vehicle information platform.
In China, Tsinghua University, Tongji University, FAW Group and the National Defense
Science and Technology University, and other universities and companies are researching and
developing relevant VIT technologies, such as intelligent vehicle, drive-safety assistance system,
automatic drive system, steer-by-wire technology, vehicle on-board mail system and vehicle
automatic anti-collision instrument, etc.
12.4
New energy automobile is an important aspect for the clean fuel development and also a long-term
goal and strategy. In addition, the fuel consumption, safety and emission of in-use vehicles will
have great impact on the urban traffic. Another way to achieve the sustainable urban mobility goal
is to strengthen the management and maintenance of the in-use vehicles and this is the more direct
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and urgent way. In this section, the policy management and maintenance will be discussed in the
field of energy-saving and emission reduction, including strict vehicle emission and energy
conservation regulations, improve auto-related tax policies, establish the car I / M system, use the
vehicles correctly and maintain the vehicles in the right way etc.
382
1970s for two reasons: raise funds to repair roads and fair taxation.
The promotion of fuel tax will change the structure of using cost of the automobiles and there
will be many benefits. First, the consumption of motor vehicles will be more economic and
rational; the users of the small displacement, low fuel consumption, low-frequency used cars will
pay less for fuel tax instead of the fixed payment of road maintenance fees, which will encourage
the energy-saving. Second, in view of China's low efficiency of utilization of resources and the
growing demand of oil, the fuel tax will help to reduce the fuel consumption and emissions so that
avoid energy crisis. Third, as the cost of the private cars will be increased because of the tax, more
and more people will take buses instead, which will greatly improve the overall traffic situation of
the cities.
U.S. collects 30% tax on gasoline; British 73%; Japan 120%; Garman 260% and France 300
%. Experts predict that China's fuel tax rate will be between 30% and 50%.
In accordance with the plan, the road maintenance fees, the passenger surcharge and many
other expenses will be canceled after the fuel tax for gasoline/diesel. However, the tax on vehicles
and ships as a property tax has the function of adjusting the value of property. The highway toll is
not necessarily canceled although there is tax on gasoline and diesel. The fuel tax reform should
also consider the reform of the traffic tax especially the reform of the price of the oil.
(2) Environmental tax
At present, China's Ministry of Finance, the National Tax Administration, the Environmental
Protection Agency is considering to collect the emission tax in 2010. The car owners will have to
pay for the emissions in the form of tax in the future. State Environmental Protection
Administration officials hinted in the "2007 China Forum on Sustainable Energy Development,"
that the three ministries are making policies on the pollution tax and emission tax. Emissions tax is
collected from the terminal consumers. E.g. if the automobile exhaust contains carbon monoxide,
sulphur dioxide and other pollutants, the owners must pay for the emissions when refueling. The
pollution tax is collected from the enterprises i.e. the enterprises have to pay a lot if their products
will cause pollution. Now the policy research work is just on the first stage and the policies are
expected to release in the "11th Five-Year Plan" period. The making and implement of the policies
are in the charge of the Ministry of Finance, the SAT and the Environmental Protection Agency
will provide technical support, e.g. making the pollution emission standards and the testing of the
emission.
Pollution emission tax and product tax are two kinds of environmental tax. Environmental tax
has been advocated by the experts a long time ago but has not been implemented yet.
Comprehensive Working Scheme of Energy-saving and Emission reduction" which released in
2007.6 has pointed out that environmental tax will be collected in our country later. Environmental
taxes are usually used to protect the environment nowadays. In some countries, the environmental
tax is a large part of the tax revenue.
383
that can play the role of purification well. OBD is able to identify the system failures that cause
the emissions over standard and determine the causes and locate the position so that carry out
appropriate maintenance, repair to make sure that the vehicles can meet the emission standards
and keep a good condition. It is now internationally recognized as the most effective way.
As the population of motor vehicles in Beijing is the largest, the air pollution is the most
serious. The management of the motor vehicles is the strictest in China and it will be a good
example for other cities. The principles of I / M system in Beijing are: on the basis of testing and
then the maintenance to make sure that the vehicles will meet the emission standards; to scrap the
old vehicles more frequently; testing regularly: twice a year in six years for the vehicles equipped
with OBD, once a year for the green-labeled vehicles and twice a year for the yellow-labeled
vehicles; the Environmental Protection Department and the Public Security Departments should
investigate and monitor the vehicles on road all year along; the owners of the over standard
vehicles can choose the garage to repair their cars.
Detailed measures that the Beijing government taken to control the in-use vehicle emissions.
(1) Label the in-use vehicles with green or yellow according to the emissions.
(2) Test the vehicle emissions regularly: the regular tests are carried out by the method of
Simplified Loaded Mode since 2003; Beijing now has 43 inspection plant and 220 test lines. The
plants are equipped with real-time images and data monitoring. The test for gasoline vehicles
including appearance test, BASM test, idling test and OBD test. The test for diesel vehicles
including smoke detection, power test, speed test and the emission limits are classified into three
parts. The vehicles that cannot use Simplified Loaded Mode will be tested in Double Idle State
Method or Free Acceleration method. The vehicles that do not pass the emission test will not be
allowed to the Security Detection.
(3) Strengthen the road check of the in-use vehicles. The Environmental Protection
Department and the Public Security Departments has established Law Enforcement Department
of Motor Vehicle Pollution Control. The road check of the in-use vehicles will be strengthened
and high-emission trucks, buses will be checked respectively. Other special inspection are carried
out on the vehicles from other cites coming into Beijing. 700,000 vehicles will be spot checked
every year.
(4) Promote repair and maintenance. The owner of the vehicles that do not pass the test can
choose the garage to repair their cars and have to recheck until pass the test. And 250,000 vehicles
will be treated.
(5) Limit traffic ability of the labeled-yellow vehicles. High-emission vehicles with less than
19 seats are not allowed to enter the central-district between 8:00-19:00.
(6) Speed up the updating of old vehicles. 460,000 vehicles are discarded during the tenth
Five Years. More than 6000 diesel buses and 43,000 taxies are updating with the help of the
discount loans and economic subsidies. The new vehicles all meet the requirements of Chine III
emission standards and solve the problem of black smoke. At the same time, the compressed
natural gas (CNG) on buses is popularized. There are more than 3,000 CNG buses now.
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Make sure that the vehicle is in good condition, can be used at any moment. Increase the
rate of intact vehicles.
Under normal working condition, the vehicle wont stop on the way because of conking,
and wont have mechanism troubles that would affect the traffic safety.
Make sure to keep the balance of the technical condition of each part, so as to extend the
time between big repairs.
Make sure to lower the use of oil, materials and parts as far as possible.
Reduce the noise and emission pollutants.
385
which the HC emission is less than 200ppmm. After maintenance, the number increase to 26.4%
(Figure 12-21). Before maintenance, therere only 34.4% cars of which the CO emission is less
than 3%. After maintenance, the number increase to 73.4% (Figure 12-21). So its very obvious
that proper maintenance is good to emission.
12.4.2.2 Impact of car maintenance and using condition on fuel consumption and
emissions
(1) Using conditions
The test is conducted under the controlled atmospheric temperature and reference state in the
lab simulating the running state of the real road to estimate the fuel consumption; however the real
conditions varied a lot and the fuel consumption may also vary greatly. The impact of the using
conditions including:
Environmental conditions: the test is conducted under controlled atmospheric temperature,
the laboratory temperature is 20 5 . The actual temperature of the environment varied from
-30 to 40 . The low temperature makes the vehicles to spend more time warming up the
engine which need more fuel.
Road condition: the test simulate roads which are dry and flat and the friction is stable
without slope resistance when testing on the chassis dynamometer; the real conditions are not so
simple: road surface, slope, wet/dry , corners and mountain roads all will influence the fuel
consumption.
Driving cycle: driving cycle has the greatest impact on c. The test is conducted under the
typical driving cycle, which was composed of two parts: urban low-speed (maximum speed 50 km
/ h, average 19 km / h) and suburb high-speed (maximum speed 120 km / h, average 63 km / h).
The actual fuel consumption varied a lot because of the using sites; using condition etc. the fuel
consumption is high if driving in the urban; the fuel consumption is low if driving on the highway
normally; if driving short haul frequently, the fuel consumption will be high because of the time
386
that the vehicle running at the ideal temperature is short. Tsinghua University conducted an
experiment on the rolling drum comparing the NEDC driving cycle, Japan 10-15 driving cycle and
FTP75 driving cycle on the same car in order to find out the influence of the driving cycle on the
fuel consumption and emissions. Table 12-5 shows the details: Japan 10-15 driving cycle has the
lowest emission factors because the vehicles are preheated so that there are no cold start
emissions. FTP75 driving cycle has the highest fuel consumption because the acceleration is
violent and the working condition is unstable.
Table 12-5 comparison about fuel consumption and emissions under three
driving cycle
NEDC
Japan10-15
FTP75
HC(g/km)
0.108
0.008
0.129
CO(g/km)
0.413
0.074
0.379
NOx(g/km)
0.007
0.004
0.018
Fuel
consumption(L/100km)
7.79
9.76
12.55
387
388
States shows that the heat value in summer is 1.7% higher than the winter.
The fuel that the test uses is reference fuel, the indictors of which are stable so that the results
are easy to be compared. But it is still the typical fuel which is sold on the market.
The poor quality fuel, e.g. octane number does not qualify and too many impurities will not
only deteriorate the driving performance but also increase the fuel consumption or even damage
the engine. So the drivers should refueling their cars in the big stations.
(5) Difference between the vehicles
The difference of manufacture and assemblage will lead to the difference of fuel consumption
even the same type of vehicles. Generally speaking, this difference is very small but some drivers
think the opposite.
(6) Vehicles running
A good run-in vehicle can get the best fuel consumption. Usually 5,000 km is needed.
12.5
Conclusion
(1) The population of China automobiles increased from less than 2 million in 1999 to nearly 900
million at the end of 2007 with the growth rate of 12%~38% per year in average. Private cars have
surpassed 35 million and 8% families have their own cars. At present, China automobile
production and sales are only second to the United States and Japan, ranking third in the world.
China has become the second biggest car consumer only second to the United States all over the
world. Many cities have entered the automobile society.
(2) Although the number of accidents, death, injured and finical losses has decreased since
2003 and the road traffic conditions have improved a lot, the number of the accidents in our
country is still the biggest all over the word. The human factors are the main causes of the
accidents, by which nearly 90% death are caused. 70% death caused of the human factors is
because of the faults of the drivers. Technologies and management should be considered to reduce
the accidents.
(3)The implement of Fuel Consumption Limits of Passenger Cars and "Light Vehicle
Emission Limits and Measurement Methods" (China , stage) has reduced the gap between
China and developed countries in fuel consumption and emissions. 70% of the new vehicles
entered the market can meet the requirement of stage II and stage III emission standard. However,
the emissions on real road are not good. Take Beijing as an example which has the strictest
regulations, only 44% of the vehicles meet the EUII standard at the end of 2006 and 1% meet the
EUII standard. 1/3 vehicles are failed to pass the emission regulations.
(4) Safety, economy, environment protection should be considered when choosing the urban
traffic tools. Public traffic including the rail is the safest, cheapest and emitted less CO2 than other
tools. It is urgent for the China cities to establish the comprehensive traffic system in which public
transportation is the subject, rail transportation is dominant.
(5) Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technology is sustainable urban transportation
technologies which can save time, reduce traffic accidents, improve the utilization of existing
389
highways and reduce emissions. Intelligent vehicle technology is the main component of the ITS.
Through the comprehensive utilization of information perception, dynamic identification, control
technologies, we can realize the target of zero accident in the future. It also represents the
development of the future automobile safety technologies.
(6) In the future, the process of clean fuel and energy saving will be the competition between
conventional diesel, hybrid, biomass fuels and fuel cells as well as other alternative fuels or new
energy. It will also be a process that these kinds of automobiles make progress together. The
conventional internal engine vehicle will still be dominant before 2015 and the number of diesel
engines will increase in the European market or even into the United States market. Biomass fuels,
fuel cells and other alternative fuels will be developed greatly but will still be used little. Many car
makers face the pressure to reduce CO2 emissions so that considering promote the hybrid vehicles
which combine the current gasoline/diesel engines with the motors or batteries. HEVs will not be
the main choice before 2015 because of technology and cost, but still a long-term goal for many
companies.
(7) There are two ways to reduce the fuel consumption and emissions. First, strengthen the
management of the in-use vehicles, such as strengthen the fuel consumption and emission
regulations, promote the tax policies to encourage the energy-saving, low-emission vehicles and
limit the worsening in fuel consumption and emissions. Second, strengthen the correct use and
maintenance for in-use vehicles, such as regularly testing and maintenance, maintaining a certain
tire pressure, improving the use rate and good driving habits.
References
[1] Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau. 2006.12.13. Emission control of Beijing in-use
vehicles
[2] Chen Kaipin, Zhang Kailiang.1995.12. Vehicle maintenance and fault diagnosis. Beijing:
Machinery Industry Publishing Company
[3] China Automotive Industry Association(http://caam.org.cn)
[4] City Construction Archive of Guangzhou (http://www.gzuda.gov.cn/news)
[5] Duncan Austin, Niki Rosinski, Amanda Sauer, Colin le Duc.2003.Sustainable Asset
Management and the World Resources Institute. Changing Drivers: The Impact of Climate
Change on Competitiveness and Value Creation in the Automotive Industry
[6] http://www.fueleconomy.cn/, Energy-saving and Environmental Protection of China
Automobile.
[7] Homepage of Electronic Engineering (http://www.eettaiwan.com)
[8] Liu Guangyuan. 2004.12 Prevention of Road Injury Report. Beijing: Peoples Health Press.
[9] Merrill Lynch. 16 June 2005. Energy Security and Climate Change: Investing in the Clean Car
Revolution.
[10]Miranda Anderson, David Gardiner .Ceres, Inc. 2006.4.Climate Risk and Energy in the Auto
Sector: Guidance for Investors and Analysts on Key Off-balance Sheet Drivers
390
[11]Ni Hong. 2006.12.7. Present Situation and Development of Newly In-use Vehicle
Management in China. State Environmental Protection Administration of Motor Vehicle
Emissions Control Centre.
[12] Pei Yulong, Wang Wei. 2004. Causes and Prevention Strategy of Road Traffic Accident.
Beijing: Science Press
[13] Police Bureau Traffic Administration Bureau. Road Traffic Statistics of Peoples Republic of
China (1998~2007), Beijing.
[14]http://www.auto-stas.org.cn, Statistical Automobile Information by China Automotive
Association.
[15]Xu Kangming. Promotion the Development of BRT Sustainable Urban Mobility Project
[16]Zhao Boping, Sheng Zhiqian. Dominant Traffic Tools that Helpful to the Development of
Urbanization
391
Based on the definition of urban sustainable transport and insight of its connotation and
objectives, a set of indicators is proposed to evaluate the performance of urban transport system in
China. Several cities are selected for evaluation and evaluated and the feedbacks are provided to
these cities.
Objectivity
Measures are selected to ensure the objectivity and equity of the performance measurement
system; Data reliability and data accuracy are also major concerns of the system.
Applicability
Measures should be well defined and easy to understand and use, and describe the
complexity of the system. To utilize the existing data, statistical methods and related standards,
choose representative information.
Guidance
Measures are compatible with standards and guide the future urban transportation
development.
392
Comparability
Measures and data selection, and calculation algorithms are required to be representative and
comparable.
13.2
Literature
reviews
on
performance
measures
of
393
The indicators reflect the concept and the indication of sustainable transportation;
Indicators serve for the development objectives of sustainable transportation;
Indicators should cover each major characteristics of a sustainable transportation system;
Indicators should target the practical problems of Chinese urban transportation.
394
13.3
The multi-criteria evaluation system is organized hierarchically . The objectives were specified
based on the predetermined goals and those objectives were further decomposed into a number of
sub-objectives then translated into different indicators. This makes the system well structured and
could be extended with the increase of objectives.
Based on the concept and objectives of sustainable mobility, considering the actuality and
trend of Chinese cities development, the system is composed by following 5 areas and 20
indicators.
Table 13.22 Indicators for sustainable urban mobility planning
objectives
Transportation
function
Investment
and cost
Indicator
definition
I1
Road network
density (km/km2)
I2
Resident average
travel time (min)
I3
Resident average
transfer time (min)
I4
Commute time by
public transit (min)
I5
Average speed on
arterial roads
(km/h)
I6
300m radius
coverage ratio of
public transit
stations (%)
I7
Public transit
network density
(km/km2)
I8
Parking berths
supply demand
ratio (%)
I9
Proportion of
investment on
transportation
infrastructures to
GDP (%)
Percent
of
investment
on
fundamental
transportation infrastructures to GDP in recent 5
years.
395
time
using
all
Equity and
traffic safety
Energy and
environment
Government
efficiency and
capability
I10
Proportion of
investment on
public transit to that
on transportation
(%)
I11
Public transit
affordability (%)
I12
Household transport
cost index (%)
I13
I14
I15
Proportion of
villages with public
transit routes (%)
I16
I17
I18
Fuel consumption
per vehicle
(t/vehicle)
I19
Pollutant emission
per vehicle
(kg/vehicle)
I20
Government
efficiency and
capability
396
13.4
Mega
Population (10
thousand)
Beijing, Shanghai
>320
>200
>160
>110
>55
<110
>100
<55
<50
>50
In Table 13.2, the categories are determined by city scales, without consideration given to the
developing level of urban transportation. Therefore, we use cluster analysis to reclassify the cities.
Cluster Analysis is used to classify cities in this research. Clustering Analysis is a
multivariate statistical technique that arranges research data into mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive groups (or clusters) where the contents of each cluster are similar to each
other, but different to the other clusters in the analysis.
Systematic cluster analysis is the method commonly used in cluster analysis process, the
steps are as follows:
(1) Calculate the distance dij between n samples, and denote D ={ dij }. The typical Clustering
recursive formula is as follows:
2
2
2
Drk2 p D pk
q Dqk2 D pq
| D pk
Dqk2 |
397
Cities
description
Type I
Beijing, Shanghai
Mega-cities
Type II
Type III
Type IV
Level A
Level B
Level C
Level D
Level E
I1
18
24
30
40
50
I2
11
15
I3
20
30
40
50
60
I4
30
27
24
21
15
I5
90
80
70
60
50
I6
I7
0.85
0.7
0.55
0.4
I8
7.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
1.5
I9
25.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
1.0
I10
10
398
I11
12
16
20
25
I12
5.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
I13
95
90
85
75
60
I14
100
98
95
90
85
I15
10
I16
15
25
35
50
I17
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.5
I18
150
180
210
250
300
I19
I2
I3
I4
I5
I6
I7
I8
I9
I10
I11
I12
I13
I14
I15
I16
I17
I18
399
I19
I20
Z-Score:
yi
xi x
s
Max-Min Limit
yi
xi xmin
xmax xmin
Where, xmin, xmax are the worst and best values respectively.
Piecewise Linear standardized method If the effect of indicators value on the evaluation
result changes with indicator ranges, piecewise linear standardized method will be applied to
standardize measures.
Curve standardized methodThis method is applied to describe the non-linear association of
indicator values with evaluation results, approximately.
400
indicates the best while level 5 indicates the worst. The steps are as follows (Hu Yonghong, 2000):
(1) Determine the standardization matrices of indicator values and threshold values. Denote
Xmn , Yn5 as the matrices of indicator values and threshold values respectively, where m is the
number of samples, and n is the number of indicators, then calculate the standardization
matrix (Rmn) of indicator values and membership matrix (Sn5) of threshold values.
(2) Calculate the weight of indicators.
(3) Calculate the membership vector of sample i to h-level. Weighted Euclidean distance is
used to evaluate the differences between sample i and level h.
dih
w r
j
j 1
ij
s jh
1/ 2
2
min F U ih uih dih
h ai
s.t.
bi
h ai
ih
bi
uih d g d
k ai
2
ih
2
ik
dih 0
ai h bi
Where Uih is the optimal degree of membership of sample i; ai and bi are the upper and
lower limits of sample i comparing with the levels of membership matrix, respectively.
(4) Calculate the score of sample i.
13.5
401
of year 2005, the GDP reached 126 billion yuan, total road area was 1.459 km2, and the public
transit passenger volume was 0.325 billion.
According to the city classification, city A, city B and city C all belong to the Type II
category.
13.5.2 Evaluation
Constrained by the data availability, some of indicators are quite difficult to acquire. For this
reason, the following five indicators are not included in this case study: (1) resident average
transfer time; (2) public transit affordability; (3) household transport cost; (4) fuel consumption
per vehicle; (5) pollutant emission per vehicle. As a result, four categories of indicators, 15
indicators in total were used in the initial evaluation process. According to the investigation, the
values of indicator for each city are listed in the following table:
Table 13.26 Indicators and values
City A
City B
City C
I1
5.97
10.56
5.66
I2
29.42
35.11
18.94
I4
29.42
41
22.46
I5
25.7
21.2
20.6
I6
66
80
72
I7
4.54
5.68
5.88
I8
0.87
0.82
0.75
I9
2.1
5.3
I10
10.6
5.8
4.8
I13
2.85
1.87
2.51
I14
93.6
86.9
85.42
I15
100
100
98
I16
7.6
6.5
8.31
I17
21.93
48.8
13.55
I20
objectives
weight
indicators
weight
Adjusted weight
Transportation
0.414
I1
0.089
0.037
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function
Investment
Equity and
0.233
0.233
traffic safety
Government efficiency
0.120
I2
0.178
0.073
I4
0.213
0.088
I5
0.16
0.066
I6
0.121
0.05
I7
0.08
0.033
I8
0.16
0.066
I9
0.333
0.078
I10
0.667
0.155
I13
0.123
0.029
I14
0.281
0.065
I15
0.175
0.041
I16
0.281
0.065
I17
0.14
0.033
I20
0.12
0.12
and capability
The evaluation process is conducted to compare the performance of urban transport system in
the case cities.
403
infrastructures, at the same time to improve traffic management in order to decrease fatalities.
13.6
Conclusions
Sustainable urban mobility system is the basis to realize the resource-conserving, environmentfriendly and people-oriented society. The challenge we are facing is how to define and evaluate
the performance of sustainable urban transportation system in China. According to the definition
and objectives of sustainable urban mobility, we proposed 20 indicators in 5 categories:
transportation function, funding and financing, equity and traffic safety, energy consumption and
environment, transportation management and government efficiency and capability. These
indicators were applied in three typical cities to evaluate the performance of the sustainable urban
mobility system.
References
[1] Canada STPI. 2000. Sustainable Transportation Performance Indicators.
[2] LGA/DfT Working Group. 2004. Proposed definitions for mandatory Local Transport Plan
indicators.
[3] Office of Regional Planning and Urban Transport Stockholm. 2001. Sustainable Development
Regional Indicators.
[4] Reinhart kuhne. 2004. CompassReport Cards for Mobility.
[5] Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Construction, China. 2005. Indicators for Urban
Traffic Management.
[6] Hu Yonghong, He Sihui. 2000. Comprehensive Evaluation Method, Beijing: Science Press.
[7] Wang Wei, Chen Xuewu, Lu Jian. 2002. Research on Theory of urban sustainable
transportation system, Beijing: Science Press.
[8] Zeng Zhenxiang, Gu Peiliang. 2000. Systematic Analysis and Evaluation of Sustainable
Transport, Beijing: Science Press.
404
From the viewpoint of theoretical achievement, macroscopic work should be the breakthrough
point of the study. The key problem is how to deal with the relationship between transport and
economy, human and society and natural environment. If transport is unsuitable to the
development of economy and society, the whole national economy will suffer from a decrease in
efficiency and complains would be heard everywhere. If this major premise doesnt exist, there is
no need to talk about sustainability further. And currently there exist many problems in our
transport system which affects the whole economy as well as the peoples daily life. This problem
is exactly macroscopic.
From the medium point of view, the study should be concentrated on the development of
transport system as well as its relationship with other fields. Specifically, it concerns how to
coordinate the relationship between transport and human, environment and nature. To a specific
city, transport planning might be the only factor needing to be considered. But in the nationwide or
even international context, it is of vital importance to also have transport planning and policies in
coordination with other important economic issues such as energy, regional development planning
etc.
The work of microscopic level is the coordination of different parts within the transport
system itself. It at least includes three aspects: first, the coordination of different transport modes,
in the words, how to make all kinds of transport modes to work integrally and meet the
requirements of sustainability, of which the solution might be sought via optimizing the structure
or distribution of resources. Second, it concerns the sustainability within different sub-entities of
the whole transport system. In our countrys case, this might be a much heavier problem to deal
with because in every transport mode in our country is still in its initial stage and stays imperfect:
in the context of nationwide transport network, perfection means that the spacial distribution of
basic transport networks of transport modes such as highway, railway, and port are finished as
planned. For example, the national planning for highway is to construct a total length of 82000
km in 20~30 years. If done, the highway network, which would only take up 5% of the total route
length, can absorb more than 25%of the transport volume. Problems such as internal
intensification, management of scale and modernization will also be solved. Other modes such as
railway, civil aviation, will be in more or less the same situation. Especially the civil aviation, the
indicators such as energy-saving and exhaust will be drastically enhanced when all the facilities
are well constructed.
406
sustainability, it is hard to imagine removing such facilities without doing any harm to other
underground facilities. We are facing the same kind of problem in the high speed railway project
between Beijing and Shanghai. The key point is: how to define the term sustainability in such a
way that can be used to judge which project is allowed while others are not. As to transport, urban
transport on the one hand is important, on the other hand, the use of land would be another key
problem.
407
408
scientific predictions. To develop underground traffic system in such a big city, weve got to have
a strategic plan. Then how about current development, its fine so far. To spend more money right
now is better than more investment is required for redevelopment in future. As of today, I still
want to emphasize the importance of strategic planning. The cross-disciplinary studies are
extremely difficult to be fruitful. In early 1980s, Professor Qian Xuesen organized a crossdisciplinary conference, but from that time till today, the achievements obtained in the field are
very limited. Cross-disciplinary study is not an easy task and we actually havent made up our
mind on it. In order to help the government to provide solutions to some strategic state issues,
weve got to start from the research on basic theories so as to achieve transition in both guiding
principles and strategic guidelines. Furthermore, weve got to have long-term perspective and to
obtain short-term achievements, which should be specifically and clearly defined. And thats all I
want to say.
409
Must have a total demand control, must have a strict macrocontrol self-disciplinary mode
The characteristics of China are thin foundation, huge population, few resources and uneven
regional distribution of resources, weak ecological systems and serious environmental pollution.
Now newspaper reports, as the Spring Festival is coming, how should the railway departments to
be ready for it, and how to control the price of ticket. In Spring Festival, National Day, Labor Day,
and vacation of students, the population need to be transported will be hundreds of millions, which
does not happen elsewhere in the world. Although for each person the trip increased is only 100 or
200 km, but for all people, the total trip increased will be enormous. Therefore, it is absolutely
necessary to have a scientific forecast and the government's macro-control!
I feel our country's macro-control should be very strict, because the resources are too few to
satisfy so many people whose appetite is such a great, and definitely the resources could not be
consumed up all of a sudden! We need a macro-control to guide economic development. The
degree of macro-control is very important, and it should be a very strict.
I feel transportation planning should also have a total demand control. In some developed
regions, people prefer to go out by air even for tourism. But obviously, China did not have the
strength to support that. Total demand control from national level must be taken as the
precondition in finding out what is the most reasonable way to develop traffic, and what is the
sustainable configuration of urban mobility.
Our arrangement of traffic development should have our own mode. When give lectures
outside, I mention the problems whether China's development should take A mode or B mode. A
mode is the mode we adopted in the last 20 years since the Reforming and Opening, which
means to greatly consume resources and energy, and is hard to be sustained. B mode is to
emphasize conservation of resource and energy, suppress excessive demand and further
deterioration of the environment and ecology with nationwide mobilization. Now the Ministry of
Water Resource of China also proposed a C mode and called it the "China model", also called
self-disciplinary model. It means from central to local, every department, everyone must be selfdiscipline in the consumption of resources and energy. And it is very important for future
sustainable development.
Various traffic departments should gradually use some energy consumption indicators, such
as energy consumption per capita per kilometer. I have studied the consumption of liquid fuel by
air from Tsinghua University to Shanghai Jiaotong University, and found it is up to 83 liters.
Chinese people have not been rich enough to take aircraft and cars as the major traffic tool for
everyone. We should calculate the energy consumption indicators of aircraft, cars, railway and
subway, and put them into the price system. Price system is not to simply calculate the price of
one liter oil, but to oriented add sufficient weight in peoples decision-making, to guide people to
choice traffic tool of minimum energy consumption through economic means. This is the only
possible way to bring better sustainability for energy supply.
Traffic problems are very complicated, and there are many other
410
cross-discipline
integration
further,
strengthen
comprehensive research
The current research is short of comprehensive research in a sort of way. All of the six teams are
limited in own discipline areas, lack of comprehensive balance among different disciplines. What
is sustainable mobility and how to define sustainable mobility? It is also very difficult. Nowadays,
the worlds development is unsustainable, it is also hard to say that the development pattern of
China is sustainable. Sustainable development should be totally based on renewable resources to
make it sustainable. Consuming limited resources of the earth is hard to be sustainable. The
development process should continuously transform from unsustainable to sustainable pattern. The
policy should gradually get close to sustainability, rather than depart from sustainability further. It
would be quite a long and slow process.
The transportation in China is in such a situation. I dont think its easy to make our current
transportation to be sustainable by just one-time policy project. Though currently there are many
unsustainable aspects, the idea and development orientation should look toward sustainability
rather than depart from it. Besides, most solutions actually are kind of tradeoff, that means getting
a whole picture of the relationships from different angles and then weighing all these. For
example, nowadays, Chinas petroleum is in short supply and needs to import, or we can develop
some alternative fuels, say, coal-based fuel to substitute petroleum. This might fit for energy
situation, but might cause some other problems as well. Substituting petroleum with coal-based
fuel would double CO2 emission. And this isnt considered to be sustainable from the environment
point. So there should be a balance on the overall situation and the solution depends on the target
problem.
Some ways now used to tackle transport problems might cause some inconveniences. To
achieve a higher trip convenience might bring more costs. Each family owns cars or access public
transport means within 5 minutes might cause unreasonable land-use or road design difficulty.
Some ideas are very good, but the price and cost are very high and economically unsustainable.
Finding a reasonable solution to solve transport problem is under constraints for any city. There is
no best nor one and only answer for the problem. In a word, tradeoff is the way.
We often make mistakes on the road to balance, and get more and more unsustainable. The
411
purpose of this research is to make a right choice in such a complex weighing. The choice made
might not achieve sustainability in one step, but will get closer and closer. There are many modes
to choose in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Once the construction
completed, the transport pattern is locked. For example, most of the supermarkets in United States
are located in suburbs, so living there without cars is impossible. Many countries like Japan often
have small markets or stores in the city, and therefore many private cars neednt to be necessary.
Once the city layout is fixed, the transport pattern is locked. So there is an urgent need for a
forward-looking research in these areas. We should find out a good solution in the sustainable
direction under the current situation. This research should be an integrated comprehensive
research. Except the current 6 research teams, I suggest building a special integration team to
conduct transport research over the 6 teams from the point of sustainable development of the
country and the city.
412
sustainable for China? These issues should be covered and deeply researched in the study.
Anyway, the United States pattern could never work.
413
to ensure a convenient, efficient and environmentally-friendly system. But from the point of
society and economy, it should also guide trip demand and consumption pattern, and this might be
a very important idea in the future sustainable transport system.
Taking freight for example, the future freight must relate with industrial distribution. The
freight volume and GDP per capita of Japan is higher than that of United States. On the contrary,
fright volume per capita of United States is higher than that of Japan. Because the land area of
United States is larger than that of Japan and the freight volume needed in the producing process is
bigger. China, like United States rather than Japan, with a large land area, the resources is located
in western area, the central industrial distribution along the coast area. The transport volume is
rather huge and a large amount of energy is exhausted. From the point of sustainable
transportation, the industrial distribution should be guided in the future.
For passenger transport, how to provide healthy trip mode and how to guide the demand
should be considered which might also relate with city planning idea. For example, Tiantongyuan
community, the so-called sleeping town, hundreds of thousands of people sleep there in the night
but work outside in the daytime. From the point of traffic organization, how to provide convenient
traffic service for this area is urgent. On the other hand, from the point of city function, this layout
might not be the most reasonable. In United States and some other developed countries, people
live in one place, but the markets are located in other far away places with huge parking lots.
Every weekend, all the people have to drive a long way to the market place for shopping. If there
are more convenient shops in the living area, this kind of traffic would reduce a lot. The car
ownership per capita of Japan is not lower than that of United States, but the mileage per capita
car is only half of that of United States. The peoples trip mode influences traffic congestion and
energy consumption greatly.
As a whole, economy development pattern, urbanization layout and peoples consumption
pattern and demand have strong influence on future sustainable mobility. If limited in the supply
point and following the developed countries pattern, the traffic demand will be far from saturation
with the population increase and urbanization process, and this will lead to a more difficult
position. Like the energy saving case in China, some demand side change is more effective, which
is much more fruitful than energy supply exploitation.
Another point is how to carry through people-orientated? The consumption orientated does
not mean meet peoples desire immoderately. Some desires are related with morality. For example,
you have a BMW, then I must have a Benz to catch up with you, which is an extravagant and vain
consumption. To meet this kind of desire leads more energy and traffic resources use and more
pollution emission, which infringes upon others to some extent. Guiding demand to a healthy trip
pattern and right transport perception is a very important philosophy in consumption field. We
should strengthen demand guidance.
3Policies for sustainable mobility
Policy guidance is very important. It is also in sustainable mobility. The policy action points differ
among different areas and development stages. Policy guidance aims at major problems, like
public transport priority in Beijing for traffic congestion. Someone in Beijing Auto Corporation
told me that the time used for buses and private cars from one end to another of ChangAn Street
now are the same. This policy is effective. Langfang might not need public transport priority, for
the traffic is not that congested there. At some stage, solving traffic congestion is the most
414
important. And from long-run, energy saving and emission reduction might be the focus. In some
areas, the focus might be reasonable land-use and function distribution. Different areas have
different focus and different policy guidance correspondingly. Nearly each of the 6 parts in this
book has offers some policy suggestions. In my opinion, firstly, an integration sum-up is needed
and secondly, the content is not that specific.
Taking energy for example, the price might be the major problem. The gasoline price in
China is relatively cheaper compared with other countries. The tax share in the price in China is
lower than 10%, but 50~70% of the energy price is tax in European countries. Raising petroleum
price will definitely reduce private car trip. The rich has more cars and the poor has less. It is the
rich that will take the cost after raising energy price. If every people in Beijing has car, price raised
is hard to be carried through for the disapprobation from the majority. Therefore, for some policy
guidance the earlier it is considered, the better is the result.
The vehicles energy consumption or emission standard, which is the CO2 emission per
100km or oil consumption per 100km, is another point. Most of the delivery capacity of vehicles
produced in Italy is small, so the government supports strict emission standard. Germany, with
large delivery capacity vehicle produced, is against strict standards. The auto industry is just at its
early developing stage in China. The relatively strict emission standard formulated recently is a
signal for the auto industry which means the vehicle in China should be economical rather than
luxury. In China, there are a lot of official cars, the absolute number of the rich is also big, though
the relative ratio is not that much. There might be rather huge amount of luxury cars unless some
limitation served. With early emission standards guidance, economical vehicles might be
dominating. In a word, in policy analysis, is it possible to integrate policy discussion in all the
parts to be more comprehensive and more specific?
4For sustainable mobility philosophy and moral norms
Developing sustainable mobility should be not limited to the now 6 disciplines, besides these,
behavior philosophy and moral norms also are very important. In promoting sustainable mobility
construction, propaganda, education and right public opinion guidance are very important.
Especially in the school, how to educate the young might decide the consumption pattern selection
of several generations in the future. We should guide the publics trip mode selection with
sustainable philosophy and strengthen related propaganda and education. Is it possible to give
priority to this point? For example, to cope with climate change CO2 emission be reduced, energy
wasting leads more CO2 emission and others emission space infringed upon. This is not only
personal behavioral style, but also a moral problem. Its peddling to spit in rural areas. But in the
city, on the street, this is a moral problem. Is it possible to have those kinds of propaganda and
education in this book?
5Some long-run thoughts on sustainable mobility
Based on the whole project, could we have a long-run thinking about sustainable mobility, not
only limited to the current problems? The future economy and society development and reform
will have a great influence on transportation. Nowadays, climate change has gradually become the
focus of the whole world, involved which nearly all important international meetings have some
sessions. Climate change might cause great social reform in the future. Why? To protect global
climate, GHG emission and fossil energy consumption reduction is greatly needed. On the other
415
hand, Chinas development needs more energy supply. Therefore, there must be low-carbon
economy system, consumption system and energy technology system. Besides these, even without
climate change, the worlds energy and environment capacity could hardly satisfy the
modernization need of China with several folds of more population more than developed
countries. Therefore, to break through the bottleneck constraint of future global resources and
environment, we should go on the way of low-carbon development. In the global low-carbon
development transformation, not only China, all the developed countries also have to face great
social reform, including reform on production, consumption, moral norm and behavior
philosophy. The future transport system must comply with this reform tendency, sustainable
mobility system must be a low-carbon transport system to ensure resources sustainability in the
future. Therefore, the current sustainable mobility system design must transform to this tendency.
Currently, low-carbon transport system might not be the best, maybe, the cost is the highest
or that will cause some other problems. But it caters for the overall tendency for long-run. Some
of current systems with low cost and high efficiency though, might depart from the overall
tendency of the world development from long-run point. Thus, sustainable transport problem
should be considered and designed under the background of global focus on resources and energy
safety and environment, and global transformation toward low-carbon society and economy. With
this overall background, though the tendency and perception of sustainable mobility might be
different with the current, the overall direction is the same. Todays ideas and policies should link
up to the future to avoid waste. We should not completely copy the methods used in developed
countries to solve transport problems. The developed countries might have changed before we
completely understand their old ways. The transportation in developed countries is also
unsustainable, and needs to transform to low-carbon system. There is no need for us to copy
developed countries. We should look forward to the future and make some leap-forward
development.
We should make some looking-forward thinking. In this report, is it possible to add a chapter
or a section on this? Some groundwork, some looking-forward and comprehensive research based
on 6 disciplines research. The transforming path and detail measures are not clear though, some of
the guiding principles are obvious. Those directional principles should guide our short-term
researches. We need to make some groping thinking and research to upgrade this report.
I contacted the transport issue is from environmental point of view, the other less. I will give you
some recommendations to do this research: sustainable development is always considered from
the challenges, the status and the response; from the three aspects you could get the important
problem to solve of sustainable transport. It becomes more difficult because of the time span and
scale: if the time span is too narrow, it has not been done, but it has been past; vice versa.
Therefore, the time scale is very important; the challenges, the status and the response are solved
at the appropriate span and scale.
Balanced demand and supply in the safe, fast, efficient and clean
request
If we focus on specific issues, it will be lost overall, strategic positioning research. From the view
of challenges and pressures, it is the greatest challenge to combine the transport demand and
supply. Transport demand increases rapidly, but the transport supply consummated is restricted. Of
course, scientific and technological progress to solve the transport demand also provided support.
In the face of progress and problems, how to match the ratio of transport demand and transport
admeasure? Transport demand relates to urban planning, land use; the supply is also a plan how to
solve the problem, so how to balance between them. The supply of transport means connect with
the idea of the humanities; idea also shows the way travel. Always on the way from imbalance
toward balance, balance and imbalance, it always in such a process needs to address the problem.
To solve the demand, the first place is security; the second is fast and convenience; the third is
efficient. Efficiency, it is not only the high efficiency of energy efficiency, but also the use of road
space; how many car though the road in one hour. In addition, clean, clean is also very important.
If at the request of the security, fast, efficiency and clean we balance demand and supply, which
should be more sustainable. It is not things of one group; it is the things of the several groups.
Transport Supply relates to the way of travel and policies. For example the Public Transport
Priority, what is Public Priority? In China Public Priority what is the status of rail transit; the track
suburban railway transport, railway transport is about to withdraw from the city, but also the
MTR, Japan's construction of the railway transport has also played an important role. The way of
supply involves technology and combination of a variety of ways.
417
must be more macro point of the study. The first is the life-cycle approach to the introduction of
environmental impact, the U.S. National Research Center is done in accordance with the life
cycle; the life-cycle analysis can be introduced into the match with the energy of the extent. The
second, from the environmental impact of cities is also not rigidly adhere to, the impact of
regional, hemispheric and global impact; the environmental problems is the global problem; if we
just consider the city, that is on one hand is sustainable, on the other hand is not sustainable. City
group combined the regional; Why is hemispheric? Now Europe, the United States and our
neighbour Japan, they are all in the hemisphere to promote the cause serious pollution, from Asia
to the Americas, Europe and North America to continue the cycle of ozone pollution is the most
important; this related to the transport and the emissions.
This is the most crucial impact on health. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the
U.S. auto industry had arguments for a very long time. Finally the health effects institute is
founded, which research the impacts of vehicle on human health. Vehicle emissions on human
health effects are in many aspects; different types of energy on human health effects are different.
So this is all in environment.
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1.Phase I of SUMO
2. Phase II of SUMO
Kick-off meeting of Phase II project- April, 2006
Sign the contract with BP for funding Phase II project June 27th, 2006
Round-table meeting of China Urban Sustainable Mobility July 11th, 2006
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421
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