Stochastic Forecasting of Drifting

Ships and Smaller Objects

Dr yvind Breivik
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Kjell Rang
Christian Michelsen Research

Objective
To generate search areas for the Norwegian
Search and Rescue Service based on the
best available wind and current information

Challenge
Make search areas as small as possible, but
not smaller

Other uses
Containers
Mine-like objects
Objects at large (buoys, ROVs)

The Uncertainties Involved

Where and when did the accident take
place?
Which object should we look for (life raft,
person in water, )?
What are the wind conditions like in the
area?
What are the surface currents in the area?

Search Maths
POS = POD x POC
POS: Probability of success (do we find
what we are looking for?)
POD: Probability of detection (the keen
eyes of the rescuers)
POC: Probability of containment (are we
searching in the right place?), our business

Forces on a Drifting Object

Wind (leeway)
Surface current
Wave motion (damping and excitation)
The motion of an object of arbitrary shape is
difficult to model, approximations are
needed

Leeway divergence
Wind to

Wind to

Leew ay Drift
Direction

Leew ay Drift
Direction

L = -25 o

Leeway divergence
sends objects at an angle
relative to downwind
Symmetry allows stable
drift left and right of
downwind (little jibing
is observed).
? Diverging search areas
with time

L = +25 o

RWD = -135 o

RWD = +135 o

Wind
Direction
From

Wind
Direction
From
Wind
to

Approximations
Wind speed and object drift is approximately
linearly relatedDownwind

Different objects drift differently ...

experimental error

Undrogued life raft

Life raft with drogue

Maritime Life Rafts with Deep Ballast System and Canopy

(46 person capacity)
30
RIGHT of Downwind
LEFT of Downwind

Crosswind Component of Leeway (cm/s)

20

Crosswind
c
experimental error

10

10

20

30

10

15

Wind Speed to 10m height (m/s)

20

25

O(100) ensemble of random maritime life raft drift properties

100

Empirical leeway model

Perturbed wind (random walk)

Downwind component of leeway [cm/s]

80

W = W10 + w '
Constant leeway perturbations
N (0, )

60

a ' = a + / 10, slope

b' = b + / 2, offset

40

20

Downwind leeway [cm/s]

Ld = ad ' W + bd '

Crosswind leeway [cm/s]

Lc = ac ' W bc '

20

10
15
10 m wind speed [m/s]

20

25

Archive and prognoses

7 day archive combined with 60 h prognoses of
Wind from 20 km res. atmospheric model (HIRLAM 20)
Surface currents from 4 km res. ocean model with tides and wind forcing (POM)

Wind and current close up

Drifting benthic lander, 20020313T11 UTC to 20020317T17 UTC

15

Pickup +104 h

Latitude

10

AWI 0203

15T06

Observed trajectory

17T01

16T04

16T15
16T09

13T12
o

72 N
Ensemble mean trajectory
55

Drift start 20020313T11 UTC

30

15 E

30

o
30
16 E
Longitude

17 E

30

18 E

IcelandFaroe exercise 20030206T11 UTC to 20030207T11 UTC

57

Icelandic exercise 2003

Convex hull of ensemble +24 h (search area)

54

Latitude

51

Liferaft pickup +24 h

65 N
48.00

45

Ensemble mean trajectory

Observed raft trajectory

42

Liferaft release position 20030206T11 UTC

20

10

13oW
Longitude

50

IcelandFaroe exercise 20040503T22 UTC to 20040504T14 UTC

40

Liferaft release position 20040503T22 UTC

Faroe exercise 2004

Manual search areas
30

Latitude

Convex hull of ensemble (search area)

20

Liferaft pickup +16h

10

62oN

30

15

12oW
Longitude

45

30

Operational use of LeeWay model

Service operational from 2002

Simulation started by web order form
Result transferred by e-mail
Result presented in JRCC decision support
system SARA

System architecture
Web order

Wind and
Current
GRIB format

Drift
Simulator

Result
Presentation

E-mail Transport

Web order, old

Web order, New

Results, sailboat

Results, PIW and Life raft

Other simulators
Oil drift
Ship drift

Web order oil drift simulations

Oil drift

Web order, ship drift simulations

Ship drift, 1 simulation

Ship drift, ensemble model

Other services
Weather forecasts overlay (MetOc)
AIS/VMS
Weather Observations

Weather forecast

AIS
Legend

Graticule

Basestations

Ports

Weather Observations

Weather Observations