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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS
Canada/Int'l
Food Prod.: Key Takeaways and Stock Implications from Our Barbecue Conference
FINANCIALS
Oil & Gas Sector Comment Alberta Royalty Changes: Another Positive Surprise for...
Integrated Oils Canada Cenovus Energy Upgraded to Outperform; Highlights From Investor...
North American E&P Canada Paramount Resources Updated Resource Evaluation of Hoole Oil Sands Leases
North American E&P Sector Comment Alberta Royalty Curves Finalized; Natural Gas Deep...
MATERIALS
Metals & Mining Sector Comment Mining & Commodity Roundup - May 27, 2010
Fertilizers Int'l Legend Int'l Holdings Still Waiting for Wengfu
Fertilizers Canada Potash One Feasibility Capex/Tonne Rising But All-Inclusive
CONSUMER
Food Prod. Sector Comment Key Takeaways and Stock Implications from Our Barbecue...
TECH/TELECOM/MEDIA
Enterprise Hardware Sector Comment Notes from the Road - Bus Tour Recap
Specialty Hardware Canada Zarlink Semiconductor Q4/10 Revenues Above Forecast and Consensus
HEALTH CARE
MACRO
50 50
Neutral. The Tier 1 ratio was healthy at 13.7% and impaired loan formations 0 0
diminished during the quarter. Good results in credit and trading were offset by 150
CM Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
150
50 50
Forecasts 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: May 26, 2010
Our 2010E cash EPS are unchanged at $6.35, and we have reduced our 2011E
(FY-Oct.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
cash EPS to $7.20 from $7.30 primarily due to lower spread expectations. EPS - Cash -$5.80 $2.73 $6.35 $7.20
P/E 11.3x 10.0x
that 2011E cash EPS are a reasonable reflection of “normalized” earnings. Dividend $3.48 Yield 4.8%
Book Value $30.00 Price/Book 2.4x
Looking through the credit recovery, it is not necessarily apparent that the bank Shares O/S (mm) 388.5 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $27,977
has above-average growth potential relative to its peer group beyond 2011. CM Float O/S (mm) 388.5 Float Cap ($mm) $27,977
Wkly Vol (000s) 8,414 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $542.5
remains Market Perform rated. Net Debt ($mm) na Next Rep. Date 25-Aug (E)
Notes: All values in C$; EPS are fully diluted; Cash EPS add back
amortization of intangibles throughout
Major Shareholders: Widely held
First Call Mean Estimates: CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK COMM
(C$) 2010E: $6.28; 2011E: $7.25
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 9.
May 28, 2010
CIBC Research Comment
Corporate Debt – Banks
Key Points: CIBC reported cash earnings of $624 million, or $1.61 500
10 Yr
per share, compared with a loss of $81 million, or ($0.21) per share, 450 5 Yr
in the year-ago quarter. Adjusting for certain items, cash earnings of 400 2 Yr
$1.46 per share came in below the consensus estimate of $1.49 per 350
saw a significant drop in advisory fees and equity new issue 150
revenue. In addition, the second quarter results did not include 100
Recommendation
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 7 to 8.
May 28, 2010
Royal Bank Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(RY-TSX; RY-NYSE)
Impact 20
Volume (mln)
2.5
200 200
Negative. Royal reported weaker-than-expected results from some of its core
100 100
retail and wealth businesses. Results were partially offset by better-than- 0 0
expected capital and credit. 150
RY Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
150
100 100
Forecasts
50 50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
We decreased our 2010 and 2011 cash EPS estimates to $4.15 and $4.90 from Last Data Point: May 26, 2010
$4.35 and $5.15, respectively. The reduced forecasts reflect more modest
(FY-Oct.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
expectations from wealth management, narrower projected spreads and lower EPS - Cash $3.47 $3.40 $4.15 $4.90
P/E 13.7x 11.6x
corporate contribution, partially offset by lower specific loan loss provisions.
Our quarterly trading revenue forecast of $1 billion is unchanged. EPS - GAAP $3.38 $2.57 $4.04 $4.79
P/E 14.1x 11.9x
Over the last three quarters, RY’s results have come in below consensus Dividend $2.00 Yield 3.5%
Book Value $23.39 Price/Book 2.4x
expectations, which could reflect one of three possibilities: consensus forecasts Shares O/S (mm) 1,423.4 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $80,922
Float O/S (mm) 1,423.4 Float Cap ($mm) $80,922
overestimate the ultimate earnings power of RY; RY is investing in future Wkly Vol (000s) 20,912 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $1,121.3
growth initiatives that are dampening current earnings; or some combination of Net Debt ($mm) na Next Rep. Date 26-Aug (E)
Notes: All values in C$; EPS are fully diluted; Cash EPS add back
both. We believe it is some combination of both and the premium valuation amortization of intangibles throughout
enjoyed by the shares is likely to come under some pressure in the near term. Major Shareholders: Widely held
First Call Mean Estimates: ROYAL BANK OF CANADA (C$)
Nonetheless, we believe that looking through the credit recovery, RY has above- 2010E: $4.49; 2011E: $5.25
average growth prospects. RY remains Outperform rated.
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 9.
May 28, 2010
Royal Bank Research Comment
Corporate Debt – Banks
Key Points: RBC reported Q2/10 cash earnings of $1.3 billion, or 450
10 Yr
$0.91 per share, compared to $938 million (excluding the $1 billion 400 5 Yr
goodwill charge), or $0.66 per share, in the year-ago period. 350
2 Yr
Excluding certain items, Q2/10 core earnings were $0.94 per share, 300
which was significantly below the consensus estimate of $1.10. 250
Overall, it was a relatively weak quarter for RBC. Capital markets
200
revenues came in lower than expected due to weaker trading
150
revenues and a 25% decline in corporate and investment banking
100
revenues. Management indicated that the sovereign debt crisis in
Europe put pressure on volumes in the early part of the quarter. In 50
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 7.
May 28, 2010
TD Bank Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(TD-TSX; TD-NYSE)
loan loss provisions helped drive operating EPS growth, offset by a more 50 4.5
30 3.5
Volume (mln)
Impact 100 100
50 50
Neutral. 0 0
TD Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
150 150
Our 2010E cash EPS are unchanged at $5.80 and we adjusted our 2011E cash
50 50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS to $6.60 from $6.65 due to more modest spread expectations. Last Data Point: May 26, 2010
conditions in the U.S. regional bank. While credit trends remain favourable, the Quarterly EPS - Cash Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $1.42 $1.24 $1.34 $1.38
increase in impaired formations in debt securities classified as loans highlights 2009A $0.96 $0.82 $1.16 $1.25
2010E $1.57a $1.44a $1.39 $1.40
that there are still credit challenges to overcome. The bank’s Tier 1 capital, at
12% remains healthy, although pro forma the South Financial acquisition Tier 1 Dividend $2.44 Yield 3.3%
Book Value $40.35 Price/Book 1.8x
could decline to 11.5%. There are tentative signs of increased loan demand in Shares O/S (mm) 868.2 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $63,709
Float O/S (mm) 868.2 Float Cap ($mm) $63,709
the U.S. Northeast, which should help TD’s US banking business. Given its Wkly Vol (000s) 16,561 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $1,073.5
industry average valuation, above-industry-average franchises in Canada and Net Debt ($mm) na Next Rep. Date 02-Sep (E)
Notes: All values in C$; EPS fd; CEPS add back amort. of intang. &
interesting growth potential in the U.S. through TD Ameritrade and TD USA, goodwill; 2009 cash EPS has not been restated to reflect adoption of
the shares remain Outperform rated. financial instruments admendments.
Major Shareholders: Widely held
First Call Mean Estimates: TORONTO-DOMINION BANK (C$)
2010E: $5.93; 2011E: $6.79
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 9.
May 28, 2010
TD Bank Research Comment
Corporate Debt – Banks
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 7.
Energy - Oil & Gas May 28, 2010
Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
Randy Ollenberger
Industry Rating: Market Perform (403) 515-1502
Mark Leggett, CFA
(403) 515-1508
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 7.
May 28, 2010
Cenovus Energy Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
(CVE-TSX; CVE-NYSE)
from the meetings impressed with the company's opportunity set and the belief 26 1.6
that the depth and breadth of it is not well understood by investors, as it was not 24 1.5
Volume (mln)
20 20
emphasized or exploited under Encana.
10 10
0 0
Impact 150
CVE Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
150
Positive.
100 100
50 50
Forecasts 2009
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2010
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 11 to 14.
May 28, 2010
Paramount Resources Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
(POU-TSX)
Mark Leggett, CFA
Stock Rating: Market Perform BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
Industry Rating: Market Perform (403) 515-1508
Mark.Leggett@bmo.com
Assoc: Jason Chang
estimate case. Over the past six years, the company has drilled 59 oil sands 0 0
POU Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
evaluation wells. Paramount expects to submit an application for the 400 400
commercial development of the Hoole Grand Rapids resource in 2011. We 200 200
based on the updated best estimate contingent resource and a weighted average (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
transaction metric of $0.78/bbl for undeveloped SAGD projects since 2007. We CFPS $2.65 $0.90 $1.28 $1.25
P/CFPS 9.5x 9.7x
have risked this Hoole valuation (25%) in our sum-of-parts NAV, which implies
EPS -$1.72 -$1.46 -$1.14 -$1.03
a risked value of $1.72 per share (up $0.60 from our previous estimate of P/E na na
$1.11).
CF/boe $35.66 $15.71 $20.65 $17.65
EV/EBITDA 5.9x 26.2x 14.1x 13.8x
ROCE -12.0% -11.0% -15.0% -12.0%
Impact D/CF 0.4x 1.0x 1.8x 2.6x
Slightly Positive. Quarterly CFPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.36 $0.68 $0.60 $1.01
2009A $0.27 $0.21 $0.15 $0.30
Forecasts 2010E $0.30a $0.29 $0.34 $0.35
Our CFPS estimates of $1.28 in 2010 and $1.25 in 2011 are unchanged. Our Dividend $0.00 Yield 0.0%
Book Value $10.54 Price/Book 1.7x
financial estimates are based on production forecasts of 13,667 boe/d in 2010 Shares O/S (mm) 72.2 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $1,261
Float O/S (mm) 37.5 Float Cap ($mm) $655
and 15,820 boe/d in 2011, which are also unchanged. Wkly Vol (000s) 510 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $6.8
Net Debt ($mm) $162.8 Next Rep. Date Aug (E)
Valuation Notes: All values in C$; EPS (diluted), CFPS (diluted); P/CFPS ex.
Paramount's per fd equity interests of $4.84
Paramount currently trades at 2011E valuations of 9.7x P/CFPS and 13.8x Major Shareholders: Insiders (>50%)
First Call
EV/EBITDA (excluding equity interests). Our target price is supported by our Mean Estimates: PARAMOUNT RESOURCES LTD (C$/CF) 2010E:
na; 2011E: na
updated sum-of-parts analysis of $18.56 (based on flat AECO $5.50/Mcf).
Recommendation
We continue to rate Paramount shares Market Perform.
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 4 to 7.
May 27, 2010
Energy - Royalty Trusts Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
The Government of Alberta finalized the new royalty curves for conventional
oil and gas production in the province. Changes to the royalty rates were Summary
originally announced on March 11, 2010. The Government of Alberta finalized the new
The Government also unveiled the Emerging Resources and Technologies royalty curves for conventional oil and gas
Initiative (ERTI) to “accelerate new technologies to encourage development production in the province. Changes to the
of Alberta’s vast unconventional and deep resource pools”. Most notably, the royalty rates were originally announced on
minimum required Total Vertical Depth (TVD) to qualify for the Natural Gas March 11, 2010.
Deep Drilling Program was reduced to 2,000m from 2,500m. The Natural Gas The minimum required Total Vertical Depth
Deep Drilling Program will now pay $625 per metre for each metre of a well (TVD) to qualify for the Natural Gas Deep
drilled over 2,000m TVD. For example, the majority of Cardium natural gas Drilling Program was reduced to 2,000m from
wells in Alberta average TVD of approximately 2,200m. Under the changes, 2,500m. The Natural Gas Deep Drilling
the drilling program will give producers approximately $125,000 for each new
Program will now pay $625 per metre for
Cardium well drilled (200 metres over 2,000 metres x $625 per metre). Within
each metre of a well drilled over 2,000m
our coverage universe, we believe Peyto Energy Trust (Outperform) has the
TVD. Within our coverage universe, we
greatest exposure to deep natural gas drilling in Alberta.
believe Peyto Energy Trust (Outperform)
The ERTI also contains incentives designed to encourage horizontal oil and has the greatest exposure to deep natural gas
natural gas drilling, coalbed methane development and shale gas development. drilling in Alberta.
Most of these initiatives were previously announced, but in some cases the
Overall, the changes were largely as expected.
applicable time period has been extended, which we view as slightly positive.
Consequently, we are leaving estimates,
For more details on the changes, please see the comment published ratings and target prices unchanged. We have
concurrently by BMO Capital Markets Oil & Gas Producers research team. Outperform ratings on ARC, Baytex,
Overall, the changes were largely as expected. Consequently, our estimates, Bonavista, NAL Oil & Gas, Peyto,
ratings and target prices remain unchanged. We have Outperform ratings on Pengrowth and Vermilion. We are currently
ARC, Baytex, Bonavista, NAL Oil & Gas, Peyto, Pengrowth and restricted on Crescent Point.
Vermilion. We are currently restricted on Crescent Point.
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 7 to 8.
May 27, 2010
Bart Melek
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada)
(416) 359-4906
Bart.Melek@bmo.com
Assoc: Lucas Litwiniuk, CFA
Preferred Commodities
Thermal Silver
commodity and mining Zinc
Silver Iron Ore
stock movers Gold Thermal Coal
Aluminum Uranium Gold
throughout the most
Thermal Coal Iron Ore Zinc
recent week and Palladium Nickel
Platinum
month, and contains Molybdenum
Nickel
Palladium Uranium
key data and charts. It Zinc Aluminum
Steel Billet
also lists minor Iron Ore Lead
changes to mining -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Metals & Mining
equity forecasts and Com pan y Ticke r Exp osu re
Anglo American AAL Diversif ied
valuations that may Biggest Stock Movers Consolidated Thompson CLM Iron Ore
Equinox EQN Copper
have resulted due to May 26 vs May 19 May 26 vs Apr 25 Ivanhoe Mines IVN Copper
South Gobi Energy SGQ Coal
changes in key SBB
RIC
assumptions. ELD Pre cio us Me tals
QUA
Com pan y Ticke r Exp osu re
CEY
FNX Alamos Gold AGI Gold
Featured Report ORE Fresnillo FRES Silver
CG New mont Mining NEM Gold
BIM CENX
PLZL BIM
Changes Tables
FM FXPO Please see pages 16-26
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75%
Source: Bloomberg, BMO Capital Markets Please see pages 12-15 for analyst coverage.
Meredith Bandy, BMO Capital Markets Corp. (U.S.) (303) 436-1113 Andrew Kaip, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada) (416) 359-7224
Andrew Breichmanas, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada) (416) 359-8387 David Radclyffe, BMO Capital Markets Ltd. (U.K.) 44 (0)20 7246 5433
David Cotterell, BMO Capital Markets Ltd. (U.K.) 44 (0)20 7246 5430 Tony Robson, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada) (416) 359-4034
David Haughton, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada) (416) 359-4052 Edward Sterck, BMO Capital Markets Ltd. (U.K.)(44) (0)20 7246 5421
John Hayes, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada) (416) 359-6189 Data/Project Management: Simona Cheoreanu
This report was prepared in part by analysts employed by a Canadian affiliate, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and a UK affiliate, BMO Capital Markets
Ltd., authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK, and who are not registered as research analysts under FINRA rules.
For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 27 to 28
May 27, 2010
Legend International Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
Holdings
(LGDI-NASDAQB) Joel Jackson, P.Eng., CFA
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
Stock Rating: Outperform(S) (416) 359-4250
Joel.Jackson@bmo.com
Industry Rating: Outperform
Event 4
-0.10
3
We have revised our model following recent announcements from LGDI, and
2
LGDI’s presentation at the BMO CM Ag, Protein and Fertilizer conference. -0.15
0 -0.20
Impact Volume (mln)
40 40
Neutral. 20 20
0 0
LGDI Relative to S&P 500
Forecasts 4000 4000
China’s Wengfu is completing a feasibility study focusing on the viability of 2000 2000
from the study due in late June, the scenario is unconstrained, so we maintain a (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
phosphate rock-only forecast for now (sales ramp to 4 million tonnes by 2020). EPS -$0.09 -$0.17 -$0.13 -$0.07
P/E na na
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 4 to 6.
May 27, 2010
Potash One Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(KCL-TSX)
-0.05
KCL presented data points last week from its ongoing feasibility study. The 5
-0.10
plan was cited as production of 2 million mt at Legacy ramping to 2.85 million 4
3
mt in 3–5 years from start-up. Capex was cited as US$2.2–2.4B (US$770– -0.15
2
840/t) versus the pre-feasibility estimate of US$1.9B for 2.5 million mt 1
-0.20
50 50
prospective partners have little interest in a smaller initial mine (e.g. 1.43
0 0
million mt), which could expand later and require lower initial capital, as our KCL Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
4000 4000
prior scenario had assumed.
2000 2000
Impact 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
Valuation
We estimate a 10% NAV of $1.6B and a 10% NAVPS of $3.91 at US$450/t
potash (fob Vancouver) assuming 75% foreign debt financing. Despite greater
capex, our NAV rises 13% after assuming a larger initial mine, but our NAVPS
falls 14% due to greater upfront financing needs and associated dilution.
Recommendation
With feasibility relatively imminent, KCL is the most advanced Saskatchewan
potash developer with all-inclusive feasibility capex/tonne estimates tracking Notes: All values in C$; (S) in rating denotes Speculative
Major Shareholders: Widely held
lower than some incumbent producer brownfield expansions. Procurement of First Call Mean Estimates: POTASH ONE INC (C$) 2010E: -$0.09;
2011E: -$0.01
considerable project financing in 2010 remains KCL’s key catalyst. We
maintain our Outperform (S) rating but lower our target price to $3.50 from
$4.00.
Changes Target
$4.00 to $3.50
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 8.
May 28, 2010
Food Kenneth B. Zaslow, CFA
BMO Capital Markets Corp.
212-885-4017
Industry Rating: Outperform kenneth.zaslow@bmo.com
Summary
Notes from the Road – Bus Tour Recap
We met with various industry leaders this week
and offer a few comments.
We met with various industry leaders and offer a few comments. First, we believe XRTX is well positioned with both
storage systems and drive customers. We believe
1. Xyratex – Positive Fundamentals; Attractive Valuation
NTAP’s 50% product growth bodes well for
We believe XRTX is well positioned, and we reiterate our OUTPERFORM XRTX, and other storage customers such as Data
rating and $24 target price. Domain, EqualLogic and XIV are tracking well.
In addition, we believe drive vendors have not
Storage remains strong. We believe storage customers are all
changed order patterns despite some softness in
tracking well. NTAP’s 50% product growth for the April quarter bodes
HDDs/PCs. We remain comfortable with our $300
well for XRTX, in our view. Further, we believe all of Data Domain,
EqualLogic and IBM XIV are also tracking well, so we think our million projection for FY2010. Further, we believe
estimate for NSS growth of close to 60% for this year is reasonable. the potential for new customer wins with various
Japanese drive and component vendors place
NTAP consistent. NTAP’s storage product split between JBL and
material upside tension to our FY2011 EPS
XRTX runs through 2011, with XRTX retaining 75% of revenues (or
estimates. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating
more accurately COGS). Because of some product launches, we believe
and $24 target price on XRTX.
XRTX probably has close to 80% of NTAP’s revenues at present, and
this amount could decline to 75% in FY2011. NTAP’s positive revenue Second, we look for a potential recovery in
variance more than offsets any decline in percent distribution from MARKET PERFORM-rated BRCD. We believe
NTAP, in our view inventory levels are appropriate for both
the Ethernet and SAN businesses. In addition, we
Some risks with DDUP. If there are any customer risks, we would
believe new hires in Ethernet could contribute
suggest that Data Domain’s business could be taken away from XRTX
modestly to the October quarter. While remain
over the next three years. However, we believe there is a new program
ramping with IBM that is at least as large as the Data Domain business. neutral, if BRCD is able to just meet consensus
Hence, we believe that this risk is manageable. revenue estimates for two quarters in row, we
believe the stock would benefit. We remain
modestly below consensus revenue estimates for
the October quarter.
In the body of this note, we also offer comments
on OUTPERFORM-rated HPQ, as well as drives
and HBAs, which we wrote on earlier this week.
Event 3 0.1
Zarlink reported Q4/10 (Mar) revenue of $58.5 million, up 14% y/y and 8%
2 0.0
sequentially, and above our estimate of $57.0 million and the First Call Mean of
$57.1 million. We estimate Q4/10 operating EPS at $0.05 or $6.5 million 1 -0.1
(GAAP of $0.05), vs. $0.02 last year, our forecast of $0.05 and the First Call
0 -0.2
mean of $0.04. 40
Volume (mln)
40
20 20
Impact 0 0
ZL Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
200 200
Positive.
100 100
Forecasts 0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
We are revising our Q1/11 revenue forecast from $56.1 million to $57.5 million. Last Data Point: May 26, 2010
Our operating EPS forecast declines from $0.06 ($0.05 GAAP) to $0.05 ($0.09 (FY-Mar.) 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E
EPS $0.12 $0.20 $0.25 $0.34
GAAP). Despite the elimination of the OPG business, our 2011 revenue is P/E 6.1x 4.5x
substantially unchanged at $237.4 million and our operating EPS forecast
CFPS $0.12 $0.29 $0.27 $0.34
remains $0.25. P/CFPS 5.7x 4.5x
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 8.
May 27, 2010
Theratechnologies Biotechnology
(TH-TSX)
Jason Zhang, Ph.D.
Stock Rating: Outperform(S) BMO Capital Markets Corp.
212-885-4179
Industry Rating: Market Perform jason.zhang@bmo.com
Alex Arfaei
212-885-4033
alex.arfaei@bmo.com
supports its approval for the treatment of excess abdominal fat in HIV- P ric e: High,Low,Close(US$)
14
Relative t o S& P 500
60 0
10 40 0
Analysis 8
30 0
6
Although we expected a positive vote, we did not expect that it would be 4
20 0
unanimous. The panel agreed that the Phase III trials clearly met the primary 2
10 0
On the safety side, as we expected, the panel mostly downplayed the risk of 10 10
Valuation
We value TH shares at $8/share using our portfolio valuation model.
Recommendation
We maintain our OUTPERFORM(S) rating on TH shares.
Please refer to pages 8 to 10 for Important Disclosures, including the Analyst's Certification.
May 27, 2010
Market Elements Research Comment
Quantitative/Technical Research
Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita/Rahul Muralidhar
Equity markets rebounded en masse; every Global, U.S. and Commodity currencies led a broad-based rebound against the dollar
European economic sector rose at least 1%. and yen; yen carry trade implied volatility fell to 20%, off of the
Flight to quality bonds sold off; Italy (a non-safe haven), part of the peak of 25% five sessions ago.
PIIGS, was the key mover to the downside; Western European Commodities rose across the board; crude oil has had the largest
sovereign and European financial default risk measures churned. two-day rebound (8.4%) since the December 2008 bottom.
Levels*
Currencies (USD per) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmark Equity Indices & Sentiment
Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg
DXY 86.29 -1.0% DJ UBS 126.65 1.9% U.S. 3.36 0.17 S&P 1200 1,219 3.4%
EUR 1.2363 1.5% WTI Oil 74.85 4.7% Canada 3.38 0.12 S&P 500 1,103 3.3%
CHF 0.8688 0.8% NMX Gas 4.32 4.0% Germany 2.70 0.06 S&P/TSX 11,749 1.8%
GBP 1.4578 1.3% Gold 1,212.5 0.1% France 2.96 0.05 Euro STOXX 2,619 3.5%
JPYx10 0.1098 -1.2% Silver 18.52 2.5% Switzerland 1.56 0.07 FTSE 100 5,195 3.1%
CAD 0.9539 2.2% Platinum 1,562.5 2.8% Italy 4.10 0.08 Hang Seng 19,431 1.2%
AUD 0.8514 3.6% Palladium 463.5 5.6% Spain 4.23 0.03 Topix 870 1.3%
NZD 0.6837 3.1% CMX Cu 316.35 3.0% Greece 7.70 0.01 S&P/ASX 4,379 1.7%
BRL 0.5510 3.0% LME Al 3m 0.94 2.5% U.K. 3.61 0.06 Shang/Shen 2,860 1.6%
MXNx10 0.7804 2.3% LME Ni 3m 9.89 3.2% Australia 5.39 0.06 Sensex30 16,666 1.7%
ZAR 0.1322 2.7% LME Zn 3m 0.88 2.6% Hong Kong 2.42 0.02 CDX IG 5Yr 119.19 -5.8%
KRWx10 0.8271 2.6% Lumber 228.50 1.6% India 7.49 0.00 TRIN 0.33 -75%
SGD 0.7139 0.7% Corn 373.25 0.5% Japan 1.26 0.04 VIX 29.68 -15.2%
Moves
Currencies (spot) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmarks Equity Indices
AUD Palladium India Euro STOXX
NZD WTI Oil Greece
S&P 1200
BRL NMX Gas Hong Kong
2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Sectors
S&P Global 1200 S&P Europe 350 S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite
Energy Financials Financials Energy
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Source for all data and graphics in this publication: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, Thomson
* H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- week High/Low; Colour codes are inverted for bond and sentiment indications
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s)
under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 9 to 10.
May 28, 2010
Relative Strength Filter Research Comment
Quantitative/Technical Research
Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita/Rahul Muralidhar
Asia Credit Watch
Close attention is to be paid to China and Asia. This month, a basket of Asian sovereign default risk started
o Currency. trading: iTraxx SovX Asia Pacific.
o Default risk. o Our stripped down and more focused version is an
easier to remember “AsiaDoom.”
o Fit to euro woe.
A.M. Notes
Today’s data… Personal income and spending (8:30 am) likely rose 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, in April. Income remains 1%
below pre-recession levels, while spending has more than recouped its decline. As a result, the savings rate has fallen from a peak
of 6.4% in May-2009 to 2.7% in March, but likely ticked up to about 3% in April. Core PCE prices likely inched up 0.1% in the in
the month, which would pull the annual rate down to 1.1%, the slowest pace since 1963—more reason for inflation concerns to stay
on the back burner.
Later in the morning, we’ll get the Chicago PMI (9:45 am), which likely slipped to 62 in May from 63.8 in the prior month. Also,
the final revision of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 am) should come in at 73 for May, down
slightly from the preliminary reading, but still up form last month’s 72.2 level and comfortably above the low of 65.7 set in August-
2009.
Debt Worries Stall Benefits Bill… “Sprawling legislation that would extend jobless benefits, revive an array of business tax cuts
and impose a new levy on hedge-fund executives faltered in the House on Thursday after fiscally conservative Democrats voiced
concern the bill would dig the nation deeper into debt.” Wall Street Journal, (Link to Article)
Busy Hurricane Season Seen for the Atlantic… “The coming Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the busiest on record, with
the possibility of the next six months bringing nearly as many hurricanes as in 2005, when Hurricane Katrina pummeled the Gulf
coast, federal forecasters said Thursday.” Wall Street Journal, (Link to Article)
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Distribution of Ratings (Mar. 31, 2010)
Rating BMOCM US BMOCM US BMOCM US BMOCM BMOCM Starmine
Category BMO Rating Universe* IB Clients** IB Clients*** Universe**** IB Clients***** Universe
Buy Outperform 32.9% 13.1% 36.4% 39.4% 47.9% 53%
Hold Market Perform 63.2% 11.9% 63.6% 55.3% 48.5% 41%
Sell Underperform 3.9% 0% 0% 5.2% 3.6% 6%
* Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets Corp. equity research analysts.
** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services as
percentage within ratings category.
*** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking
services as percentage of Investment Banking clients.
**** Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets equity research analysts.
***** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking services as
percentage of Investment Banking clients.
Market performance is measured by a benchmark index such as the S&P/TSX Composite Index, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, as appropriate for each
company. BMO Capital Markets eight Top 15 lists guide investors to our best ideas according to different objectives (Canadian large, small, growth,
value, income, quantitative; and US large, US small) have replaced the Top Pick rating.
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