TAILOR - MADE COURSE RELATING TO WATERSHED

MANAGE MANT, HYDROLOGY, SOIL EROSION

OCTOBER 21 - DECEMBER 29. 1990

HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING
BASIC PHILOSOPHY AND ISSUES OF PRACTICAL IMPORTANCE
Mihailo Andjelic, MSC Civ. Eng.

Belgrade - Yougoslavia

HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING
BASIC PHILOSOPHY AND ISSUES OF PRACTICAL IMPORTANCE

1. PRELUDE: IS HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING AN ART OR A SCIENCE?

Humans are, most likely, the only animals which feel rather
uneasy when they find themselves in situation to make a decision
concerned with a future event without prior information what
that event might be. Nobody likes to be put in an unpredictable
environment, and that is the reason why people have always been
anxious to find out what

going to happen in the future in

order to prepare themselves for, or protect from, those either

desirable or undesirable,

favorable or unfavorable, future

events.
No wonder then why these funny humans started to think about
possible ways and means of predicting the future. In an early
stage of human civilization, this issue was almost exclusively
dealt with by sorcerers, witch doctors andfortune7telle
ancient predecessors of today's scientists and,

the
Certain

extent, engineers. ( Fundamental contribution. of noble politi.

clans to this field is not to be overlooked ever since the
beginning of the so-called modern era they have tried
vince their

followers of their universal capabqities,

to 'con
RnOwl

,E:dge 3nd erudition) Common humans or laymen, such asHmeand:You,

for instance, have also actively been involved in prediction

process through .their attempts to get advice about future events
either from different specialists and modern fortune-tellers or
by making thei.r own guesses. And luckily enough, the guesses. we

are making almost every day, by using available information and

common sense, are not usually so hopeless as one might expect.
Let us now go back to our field of hydrology and see what is the
situation with the hydrological forecasting? Being in this area,
t is fair to say that hydrological forecasting is not

so

new

human activity. Efforts of old civilizations related to flood

forecasts

are also well known as., for instance, on Nile river

in ancient Egypt, on Tigris and Euphrates in Mesopotamia

etc.

even though they did not really know anything about Saint-Venant
dynamic equations, theory of fluid mechanics, systems theory,
stochastic processes, computers, or modern electronics and
telecommunication systems. That

the reason why the forecasts

prepared t that time are much more t be considered as a result

of an art and skill than of science.
Nowadays, the whole art is somewhat different, though, surpris
ingly enough, not so much advanced as one might assume. Lot of
ambiguities are still around, if not confusion, many engineers
tend even nowadays to consider hydrology and hydrological fore
casting more as an engineering art than as a serious geophysical
science of significant impact on humans, their lives and activi
Lies. Anyway, many people who are sentenced to deal with this art
or science, whatever it might be, are rather eager to. prove that
hydrology and hydrological forecasting are of. significance, at
least for those who seriously suffer from water shortage or its
excess, and who therefore understand the importance of appropri
ate wa er resources planhing, design, construction and management
for their overall prosperity and welfare.. None of these activi

ties can properly be implemented without adequate hydrological

data, information, studies, expertise and hydrological fore
casts. HUmans can live withoUt food but not without water, and it
is really strange that many humans are totally ignorant of hy
drology, the science which plays such a significant role

their

everyday lives. I have witnessed many instances of this igno

rance. How about you.? Something seems to be rather messy with our
education system.
2. MODERN FORECASTING SYSTEMS- TERMINOLOGY AND BASIC NOTIONS
2.1 What Is Meant By The Term "Hydrological Forecasting"?
Hydrological forecasting is at present times strictly determined
notion (no more ambiguities ),It denotes the prior estimate
future states of hydrological phenomena in real time This is not
to be
refers
those

confused with the term

hydrological prediction

which

hydrological design-data computation, i.e., to all

non-real time hydrological studies and estimates, at times

probabilistic in their very nature, whicherve for Planning of

water resources. development and design of water resources . struc
tures. While the actual, everyday use of the words "forecast"
and 'prediction" . is a matter of semantics or convenience,
the substance of the technical activities connected with.
each

of them in the field of hyd Ology.

different. Let's elaborate a bit on . this issue

basically
BOth. : these

hydrological activities require historical data and-may even use

the same or similar methods and models for hydrological analysis.
However, hydrological forecasting comprises additional very

important technical activities connected with other issues,

such

as network design and real time operation,

real time data

communication and processing, operational use

computers, etc

Therefore, the subject of hydrological forecasting should not be

viewed as one particular technique, but as an economic activity
using many technological developments, both in the field of
hydrology and in other fields of science and technolo
The difference between 'forecasting and "prediction s also
significance for the professional hydrologists engaged in one or
the other activity. Thus, for instance, the hydrologist makes
appropriate hydrological analysis and predicts the required
hydrological design-parameters, to the best of his knowledge and
professional abilities, but not often, if ever, does anybody
expect that this analysis and its results Will occur exactly .;aS
assumed. Moreover, if the subsequent result is: loaded with
:uncertainties and inaccuracies, no-one will hold him:. ,responsible.
for it, unless a blatant professional Mistake is
On the contrary, for the forecaster who starts with analysis of

an actual hydroloaical occurrence

storm rainfall

flood flow), the result of his work will be tested,

or confirmed, by

reali

in

few hours or

r upstream
denied

days,.. and often

criticized by both the layman and .the .ProfessiOnal Community.

This obvious y makes a big differente between the two hydrological

activities. That is one of the basic reasons why they are also
be separately analyzed and explained to those who are curious
some knowledde in this field.

Real time data

collection
sub-system

FIGURE 1. SUB-SYSTEMS
OF A HYOROLOGICA
FORECASTING SYS?

Data
transmission
sub-system

Data processing
and filing
sub-system

Historical
and basin
data files
.kodels used.
for real-time
forecasting
- sub-system
Forecast
procedures .
..(structure and
'InOdel files
Forecast
dissemination
sub-system

Forecast
evaluation
real-time
updatin
sub-system

2.2 What Is Meant By The Term "Hydrological Forecasting System"

From the above considerations, it is already, At least partly,
clear that the real time forecast is only the end product of the
whole sequence of different activities. A concrete hydrological
forecasting system (1FS) depends on many conditions Which, in

addition to those of a technical n ture and the natural environ

ment(river basin), include the social and administrative

struc

:
tures'of the specific -country or region. For this reason A gener

al description Of the design and operation of the components of a

RFS can include only those sub-systems which are indispensable
for the System in general.- These sub-systems are
-7. Historical and real time data collection
'7 Data transmission
- Data base management
7 Development of forecasting models, their calibration,.
testing and:. operational use in

real time mode

-77 Forecast dissemination services

7 Forecast eValuation and updating

The different. sub-systems and their interdependence are
illustrated by the flow-chart in Figure 1, It is obous that the
- -Selection of any above sub-system is dependent not Only on the

mentioned conditions but also on the other sub-systems:, which in

Many cases may already exist. This is particularly the case with
the data collection sub-systems, because the historical data will
have to be collected from an existing network, generally some
time before the

actUal HES is Out into operation.

Similarly, an institutional set-up (for example legal Status of

a government agency responsible for forecasting) usually exists,
especially ,in thoSIEt. Countries subject to regularly occurring
flood hazards', and the introduction of new sub-systems of HFS has
to take into consideration the existing set-up.
2.2.1 Historical And Real-Time Data Collection Sub-Systems
The data used in hydrological forecasts can be divided into two
groups: the first includes those required for developing the
forecasting method, and the second includes the information
Within the concept of a system, the data base used in the HFS is
divided into two groups of data:
the data which give information about the state of the system
in real-time and
) the data (information) enabling us to learn something about
the system in historical retrospective.
this concept a HFS represents what_ is t(nown in the artificial
intelligence theory as an "expert system If we consider Fig.1
the real-time data collection and transmission sub-systems
generate continuously new information, which is bsibrbed. by the
operational data processing Sub system, used by the.. operational
forecasting .procedure and subsequently ADY_ :the forecast
di semination sub-system. The data is filled in the historical
data base, which is part of the, system's history. This historic
data base provides the possibility of evaluation andupdating

of

the product, thus providing the self-learning of the system. The

recomputation of

the parameters of the employed: models, which

represents a part of our knowledge about the past history of the

system, results in either better knowledge of the real world
system or of a change in its behavior.
The first group, encompassing the conventional time series as
well as historical hydrological information necessary for testing
and evaluating the trial forecast procedure, alsincludes those
constant basin and river characteristics, for instance catchment
and

sub-catchment ..aeetio

land use, soil, channel dimensions and

slopes, needed for pre-cOmputation

the PrPceeeee occurring

over the basin and in the channels.

The second .group f data includes the hydrological and
meteorological data specified by the model chosen for real-time
forecasting, needed for characterizing the state of the [catchment
in real-time. These data Are transmitted in real-time immediatel
'before: the, issue

the jorecast, it may also xritlUde

Measurement of the forecasted variable ittelf(a d this is usually

the case@ ) whIch may be used to.mo. nitor the forecatt performance
or to update the forecast.
It

is

more than clear that the reliability,

. procedure is directly .related-

forecast

the amount of data available for

the development f the, PrOCedUre, and. to consistency,-. i.e..,. no

change in relative values of the records With time. Particular
.care .must be taken tonsurethat. there. is no bias .betWeerr
data used to Oveiori the. fbrecast-0
...qcOdOre and the data -used
operational 'forecasting.

the.
r

this re son, cons.isteny in .the

records is as important as quantity. of data

The networks o stations from which both the aboVe types
are to

be

provided may not e the same In general the

development of the forecasting model or procedure requires

historical data covering a longer time and more space than those
needed for actual issuance of the forecast. Although network
design is a hydrological technique of its own, the general prin
ciple for a HFS network may be summarized in two simple rules:
for the development of the system, use as much of the
data available as possible, providing it is homogeneous,
consistent and relatively reliable.( The reliability of data is
not always easy to ascertain, particularly for floods and low
flows.)
For the operation of the system, establish real-time
transmitting stations a :few as pOssible,-: the criterion being
satisfaction of accuracy needed for the purpose of the forecast.

course in the foreground

network design, since and average rainfall input is normally the
most sensitive input, providing that the flood forecast is not
based only on stream-gauging data and flood routing methods.
There are nowadays many practical and quite useful methods for
designing. and determining

the

density of the precipitation

network (see for example, WHO's GUIDE to Hydrological r

volume 1 and

ices,

IT, Fourth edition, WMO No. 168). As it was

demonstrated my many authors; the accuracy

measured average

rainfall, particularly for flood forecasting by using different

rainfall-runoff models, is of crucial importance to the
the

accuracy

furecast. It. is y far the single most important element

of the HFS accuracy as a whole.

The network .design of stream-gauging stations for forecasting

purposes is relatively simple for two reasons:
i) The real-time reporting operational stream gauges have to
be selected from existing stations, should a forecast
procedure based only on correlation of upstream to
downstream discharges be selected, or a rainfall runoff
model be calibrated by past 'observed data.;
) New stations are selected at points for which: forecasts
are needed ( the forecast points), so as to permit easy
updating and evaluation of the forecast.
Here, it should be noted with respect to the historical
streamf low records that their accuracy is a function of their
length in, time and in its turn the stability of the parameters of
a forecasting model is a function of the accuracy of the records.
network design, based on an error function would, in this
. the elimination from the historical record
those stations which may negatively influence the calibration
the model, providing that a choice of available record exists.
It is also important to distinguish between the accuracy,
measurement. or estimation(forecast) and precision Which

characteristic of the measuring instrument.

The sensors installed at the stations collecting data

in real-

time are in gener I the same as those in all other hydrological

networks. Nevertheless the interface with the telecommunication
equipment may, in some cases, require a particular type of
sensor. Thus tipping-bucket raingauges are more common than float
(siphon) types. While the nature of the river is decisive in the

10

selection of the stage-recorder type, both bubble gauges and

float-type gauges are being used. The new pressure transducers
which have reached the market appear quite promising as real-time
stage-recorder sensors and are increasingly being used. Several
manufacturers have their preferred sensors for instruments in
packages of real-time telephone or radio data-transmission subsystems.
The need for a detailed and rapid spatial coverage in real-time
data collection gives particular importance to remdte sensing of
data: However, it is important to emphasize at this point the
difference between remote sensing of data and their telemetering.
In the case of remote sensing the sensor is :always removed

from

he physical element to be sensed (rain, water level, snow cover

etc.), In the case of telemetering data from a sensor installed
in situ are transmitted over a distance, sometimes even without
recording the data at the locationOTthe tentor:. Remote sensing
from ground-based radartatellite, and airplanet:,-:. offers many
distinct advantages for Certain classes of foretattS-,. primarily
because Of the possibility of directly observing aerial extensive
variables which are otherwise only amenable to point sampling,
and providing observations over inaccessible- ter.rath or over the
!Remote sensing can be used to provide direct inputs to
forecasting models in the following areas:
Aerial rainfall, both qualitative and quantitative indications;
- Aerial extent of flood plain inundatio

- Cloud image indicating tropospheric wind as input

meteorological and hence hydrological forecast models;

to

- Cyclone movement;.
- Area of snow cover;
- Some water quality parameters, for instance turbidity.
Those interested to learn more about different remote sensing
techniques are advised to consult abundant literature 16 this
field since these issues are beyond the scope

the lecture

notes.

2.2.2 Data TransmissionSub-System

The communication system transmits data from the fie d oni oring
station back to the forecasting center. It may be manual or
automatic, it may report back at regular intervals or

may

warn

when some specified event has occurred.

Important items in determining the means of communication
required for and operational hydrological forecasting system are
the density and location of the: network .of observing

stations-,

Most data transmission Systems are also and very often,

constrained by cost, availability. of equipment, personnel,
warning time, and communi.cat'on channels

manual ar mixed

man/machine methods are gradually becoming inadequate for modern

hydrological forecast nq mcdels nd increasingly exactilc- user
demands. Automation is one way to achieve faster collection and
transmission and to obtain more frequent Observations.. Up-to-date
data Acquisition systems Using microprocessors for automatic
collection of data on a predetermined scheduler, or on the
occurrence of prescribed changes

rved data, Provide

relief from most constraints ofmanual methods, and provide the

ability for expansion and evolution to meet users' increasing

requirements.
However, the elimination of man as an observer and transmitter
has some inherent disadvantages as well. Thus, for instance, man
has a great mental ability to integrate different information and
can supplement the purely factual and numerical report provided
by the sensor with other environmental factors. Hence, the data
from sensors in an automatic system may not be identical to those
provided by an observer, and the success of an automated system
is therefore quite dependent upon the availability of appropriate
and accurate sensors.
The designers

HFS have faced and are still facing this dilemma

particularly in developing countries. Should a fully automatic

station, including transmitter and not attended by man, be used,
or should an observer be used, so as to avoid the failure of an
automated station without its being noticed. .The

final choice

usually implies several factors: firstly, a fully automated

station is normally more expensive than an ordinary radio, i.e.,
single-side band short wave transceiver (SSB); secondly, the
elimination of the observer deprives a local inhabitant of an
income, often the only one he/she can get; thirdly, security
reasons and safety of the installed automatic equipment are also
in some cases imposing constraints. Latest developments in this
.1eLd have con ributed to the pr sent . solution o, these problems.
of all, new gene ration of automated stations, benefiting
from the. general price decline of electronics, has become a
least

as.

low priced as

multipurpose radio( SS8) and

instances even cheaper. At the other band

13

Some

automatic station has increased to the degree that it. has

surpassed the reliability of a local observer, at least of a
part-time one who has minimal material motivation and often
minimal education, if any. Finally, the possibility Of easy
repair of the automated stations by simple change of printed
circuit boards(PCB) has made the operation of such stations less
vulnerable and less dependent on highly qualified Personnel.
However, ordinary radio is often able to provide the only
communication link and can also be Used to disseminate the

end

products of HFS- the final forecasts and warnings- what is in

many cases of crucial importance.
Above considerations are bringing to the conclusion, that in
existing and future HFS the followingreal-time transmission Sub-

systems do and will exist

- Manual;
- Semi-automated .(
mixture o: man-operated an aUtomatic).;
- Fully automated.

From the point of view of purely telecommunication principles,

the following systems can be or are being used:
Direct wi re
This system involves a hard wire connection or dedicated
teleph-one line between the sensor and the central readout device.
Direct-dial-telephone
This system utilizes commercially: available telephone circuits.
Either a manual, automatic dial or .
. omputerTass sted dial system
can initiate the outgoing call. ,Jpcn connection the observational
site responds and transmits current data and any data held in
memory if the station IS So equipped.
14

ALineof-sight radio ,

This system depends on very high frequ ncy(VHF) line-of-Sight

transmisSion( usually less than 50km) and does not therefore
require relay stations_ Greater distances can be achieved if

the

remote station's are elevated such as on a mountainside.

Radio relay
This.- system -features radio equipment which includes the use of
_high frequencies(HF), Very high frequencies(VHF); ultra-high
frequencies(UHF),

and

Super-high

freq0encies(SHT)

Super-high frequencies are generally Used where multiplexed

channels are .required for data transmission such as from an Earth

command station to a satellite. Ultra-high frequencies are used

between Earth-orbiting satellites and data-collection platforms,
as well as between relay stations.
Satellite
Two type of satellite are employed for data collection: polarorbiting and geostationary. A polar-orbiting satellite circles
the Earth once aboUt every 90 minutes and is therefore available
for use as a relay station only while passing overhead:

- thin

view of the Earth platform.A geostationary satellite is in'

fixed location in space relative to the Earth above the ',EqUator
and, as it always views the same area of the Earth it therefore
available for continuous data relay. A smaller antenna and less
power are required to transmit data to a polar-orbiting satellite
because it is closer to the Earth( about 1,000km altitUde)larger antenn and more power are required to relay data to a
:geostationary. Satellite because of its nigher altitude( about
30 000km).
15

Three basic types

most

data-collection-platform, radio systems are

commonly used with both polar-orbiting and geostationary

satellites: interrogated, timed and random access. With the

interrogated type a call-up demand can be initiated. With the
timed platform, reporting intervals are preselected and remain
random ac

fixed at the site until changed. A third so-called

cess" type of platform transmits almost continuously and insures

frequent observations. All data-collection platforms

communicate

with satellite in the UHF band...

The'pOtentional desighert f a HFS need to know basic features of
the existing different satellite systems and these can be found
in WMO Publication No. 411(1975). Examples of such satellites are
the GOES, the geostationary operational environmental satellite,
launched in 1974 by the U.S.A

the .NETEOSAT

meteorological satellite, which was conceived

-Arequirements.,

geostationary
meet the

the European ,M teorological and hydrdlogical

community :and to constitute Europe's contribution to the World

Weather Watch programme Of WMO the ARGOS system, the polarorbiting TIROS-N satellite with its ARGOS system which is mainly
used for hydrological data transmission in HFS( one large HFS
Niger River
using operationally this satellite system is'the
BA-Sin HFS in Africa),and was launched in 1978 by France and
U.S.A. There are nowadays many new satellite systems which are
operational, and can be used for data transmission, launched by
France, India, U.S.A. etc. Those interested to get more
details in this fast developing field should consult specialized
literature about different satellite systems.
16

Meteorburst
Let's finally mentionmeteor-scatter or, more commonly; meteorburst communications which rely on the ionization in meteorite
trails to reradiate or reflect radio waves in the low VHF fre
quency range for distances up to 2,000km. As a meteorite trail
:only exists for a few seconds, a burst ( i.e., very .Short trans
mission mode) must be Used. AlSo,the availability
meteor trails va ies with the time of day and:themonthof the
year, requiring proper selection of operating frequencies.
The meteor-burst transmission system consists of at least two
master polling stations plus the

remote stations where the

hydrological observing sites are located. The whole system can be

operated with
reliability

one master station only. However, the overall

the meteor-burst data transmission system is

greatly enhanCed

by the use of two master stations. Namely,

during the outrage of either master station,

the

collect data from all sites. The second purpose

system will
two master

stations is to prOvide better-quality paths for communications in

:cases where a data site locationis disadvantageous relative

to

one Master station; in suth:cases:the: other master station, or

combination

both, will then yield the desired data

transmission performance.
Data already gathered this way show that meteor-burst is suitable
for hydrological data acquisition from remote locations. It may
provide significant economic benefits,

especially where

conventional line-of-Sight radio links would require one or

more:

repeaters. A meteor-burst system has,for example, been

17

successfully implemented for hydrological and water-resource

management purposes in Egypt

the Nile river.

2.2.3 Data Base Management Sub-System

Data preprocessing philosophy
Part of this sub-system is normally, or traditionally, carried
out in the forecasting center, even though modern systems foresee
some preprocessing

fact, latest design of HFS n several develop d

sion.(
tries

the collection site prior to data transmis

the world foresees a considerable part

coun

f the iprOdesSing

to take place before transmission thus achieving economy in data

transmission) The entry of preprocessed data into computing units
is certainly easier although not necessarily more reliable as
man-supervised quality control is more difficult in such an
arrangement. Nevertheless man supervision is very important and
should not be relinquished. Extensive computer graphics can also
facilitate this supervision and control process and should be
introduced into any computerized data base and file management
system.
Hydrological codes
The logical interface between

the data collection, transmission

and processing is the coding system o the data which pends on

Lhe processing needs. If several usets reqUir
particular

lc, data,

in international basins, ithas also to satisfy

nationally or internationally-agreed principles

in

some

coding, for

transmission, proper storage and processing. For instance, such

hydrological code forms have been established by WMO,

one for

coding and transmission of hydrological data, called HYDRA,

and

the second for transmission of forecasts, called HYFOR (see the

WMO Manual on Codes, WMO Publication No. 306): While it is
doubtful that it will be possible to adopt one Single

code of

sOch complexity for all HFS systems using different sources of

data and processing facilities, the tendency will be to

standardize them as much as possible. .
Historical and real-t me data base systems
.Within the

data base management sub-system of HFS :the most

important is to properly organize and store two types of data:

i) The historical, Or non-real time data Consisting all
observed historical time series and so-called permanent
data, i

those which do not significantly change in

time and space;

Thereal-time data Operationally used for forecasting
ii)
purposes.:
:While the historical data base may be relatively independent, the
real-time data base system have to be embedded into real-time
modeling and forecast ngsystem. and preferably connected to the
historical data base so as to be able to feed the a Operational
forecasting models with

appropriate real-time data

and to

transfer them to the historical data base once they are no longer
needed for generating hydrological forecasts.
One such system has recently been implemented within the WMO
project in Bur a dealing with improvement of HFS on main rivers
in the country The historical data base management system

in

the project was established by using G06.3.Oi HOMS component from

the HNRC of Belgium, while the. real-time data ba

19

eMbedded

into the hydrological modeling system MUFSYS 4 developed by

professorJ. Zezulak.
Case study of the G106 historical data base follows. As for the

MUFSYS 4, 1 believe you are already familiar with its marvelous

capabilities through other lectures of the course.

2,2.3 Forecasting Procedures and MOdels

Every. forecasting procedure or Model exists in two modes, or
better to say computational forms::
-development, or calibration Aode,
-operational, or actual forecasting mode.
The difference between these t o'modes is very important. For
Instance, the complexity of the fi st mode may, and very often is
not equivalent

the Second one

mpdel which has very

complicated and large requirements in the development (calibration) stage may be operated for the actual issuance of the
forecast with very ,simple Mathematical formulation and

minimal

computational facilities'. On the oOposite., a relatively simple,

mathematically formulated model needing less time and smaller
computational facilities in development stage ma te more
difficult to operate for the issuance of an actual forecast, and
olay 'require larger computational facilities
The above deference in development and operational algorithms may
be

auSed by several factors of which the number of internal

,parampters of the model and the development (calibration) data

needs are. considered the most important. However, the mentioned
reqireme nts ofahd differences between models in both modes do

20

not necessarily influence the final choice of the forecasting

procedure, which depends on many other factors.
Classification of models for hydrological forecasting
It is necessary to stress that the classification of models for
hydrological-forecasting purposes is not necessarily identical to
the classification of models in - general Or for

other purposes

such as computation of design data, extrapolation of records,

research purposes, etc. Some models, While based on stochastic
principles or

using exclusively

statistical approaches, may

function as deterministic models when

used

for real-time

forecasting. In this connection, it should be stressed that any

model used for real-time forecasting is, by definition of the
latter, a deterministic model. Hydrological systems have an
imminent quality of predictability and this is resulting from the
time lag between the cause and effect Or between the input and
output in these systemt. Despite:of this imminence not

all

hydrological models incorporate: this lag, and those which do not

are not able to forecast.
There are many classification schemes which can be found in
literature, and the following one is to be considered as a
private' contribution to this field.
) Purely deterministic forecasting models
i) Those involving streamflow processes only, such at:
- CorrelatiOns of stages and/or volumes(discharges);
- System approach to streamflow (hydrologic routing);
- Hydraulic routing by using
Dynamic wave
Diffusion analogy and'
21

Self-tuning algorithm inaction!

With no intention of describing the whole background of the selftuning

predictor, let'-s. concentrate on the main points and

relations and then move to practical demonstration of its

capabilities.
As an introduction, it is felt appropriate to say that stochastic
difference equation models are ideally suited for real-time
st eamflow forecasting, particularly as the autoregressive terms

with updating of information prevent cumulative forecast

divergence. The predictor that adjusts itS'parameters inrealtime using least-squares , such that in the limit the minimum
square error predictor is obtained, is referred

to as

SELF-

TUNING PREDICTOR. The predictor has been tested on many rivers

and data sets and has proved to be an efficient tool for realtime forecasting purposes.
Optimal Prediction
The assumption that must be: made is

that the system

under

consideration is. Linear andtime invariant_ In the predictor

derivation, the deterministic input can and will be omitted; this
can later be introOced aS an Auxiliary variable: With: these
limitations, consider the simple n-th order stochastic process,

-1 )

A(4

Y(t) 7 C(q-1) (t)

-(1)

where e(t) is an independent N(0,

measured oOtput

-1
-1
and the polynomials A(ci ) and C(q ) are

described by
, -1

-1

1 +

random variable o y(t) the

+ a qli n

3_

-n
C(q 1) = 1 + cq 1fq

23

and q is the backward-shift operator

q x(t) x(t-i)
The following notation is introduced. The -step ahead prediction
f the output y, basedon the measurements y(t), y(t-1),.

is

denoted by c(t+k+t) and the prediction error is given by

t+k/t)
The minimum square error predictor,

ie

the

predictor that

minimizes the loss function

V Ec(t)

-(3)

can be obtained by introducing the identi ty

1
C(q)
F q -1
q G(q-1

-( )

k+1

at q operates

and that F

Writing (1) as

and replacing C
y t
Eliminating

its identity ( ) gives

-- 1
G(q
)
e(t)
A(q 1
(6) using (

- r.etc1
(ti-k) are independent of the
an arbitrary function of y(t), y(t-1

24

measurements
y(0), then

G(q
y t+k y

y(t)
C(q

Knowing the variance

2
r (

y(t+k) y

The predictor objective is that o minimum square error and this

is satisfied when y is y(t+k/t) and
G(q
y(t+k/t)
C(q
Eliminating ,y by using (2) and C

using

(4), the general

optimal predictor is obtained

.G(:q

t+k/t)

penalty of the predictor is that it. contains k-1

parameters than the original system it represents.
The self-tuning predictor
:If the parameters f the process were known the optimal predictor
could be straightforwardly calculated. For unknown processes the
parameters of the predictor can be directly estimated. It
been

has

shown that if the aim of. the predictor is to find ;(t+k/t)

which minimizes the variance of 6 (0, then this is equivalent

the self-tuning regulator w ere y(t+k/t)is the control signal
which minimizes the variance Of the output

(t).

Rewri.ting the predictor (ii) with A(q)F(q 1) 1

q
1
C(q 1), and introducing u(t)
deterministic input,
A(q-1 )y(t+kl/t-1) + Et(q 1 )u(t) + C q-1

25

c(t)

12)

w ere
1
A q-)
8(c1 )
-1
C(q )

+a

(4

4-

-1

9-1
72

n-1
.. a n q
1
mq
1-1
7 q

In Aorder to simplify the notation, let the predicted strea flow

output y(t+k/t) be c(t+k) and the vectors
0(t)

-;(t+k-1), -;(t+k-n);

t),..u(

1); n(t),..n

1)]

-so the predictor can be written

y(t+k)

4)(t) * 0

(13)

The problem now is to estimate the parameter vector

0 at each

sampling point, using the latest data acquired. For this purpose
the well known recursive least squares algorithm can be used.
Thus

the 0 estimator is given by the following equations which

are evaluated at each time step.

e(t)

y(t) - y(t)

P(t)

P(t-1)
4)(t-1)P(t-1)

P(t-1)

Kt) .7: Kt-1)

P(00T(t-1),E(t)

.(15)
(16)

is the error covariance matrix of the

parameter estimates

normalized with respect to the noise variance.

avoids dirett

This algorithm

matrix inversion( the inverse term in (is) is

scalar) and the past data does not have to be stored for
subseq0ent calculations. The predictor tor y(t1.40
y(t4k)
If

hen
. (17)

4(t) * 0(t)

the. handling: of the multiple inputs iS required, the only

modification that is necessary is the extending of the Oand

26

vectors to include the additional variables..

The Self-Tuning algorithm

has been used for real-time

hydrological forecasting and have proved to be of great valUe,

especially in those cases when appropriate discharge data are not

available. The case study of using the ST algorithm for forecasting stages at hydrological stations along the Irrawaddy river in

Burma follows.
On the use of CLS Model for hydrclogical forecasting
The CLS- (Constrained Linear System) model belongs to the group of
the so-called "black box" models in which a river basin or a

river reach is viewed as a 'linear, time-invariant system with its

known inputs and outputs while the internal Structure of the
system is unknown_ It has therefore its .root
theory, which in the form of the unit
response

in linear system

hydrograph (or impulse

function) has enjoyed much success ih.hydrolOgy as a

method for rainfall-runoff modeling. The CLS is. nothing else but
a generalization of the unit hydrograph cOnc
Basic theory
As a starting point, CLS assumes that a linear relation exists
between an input, x(t), which may be rainfall, Upstream discharge
or both, and an output, y(t), which

the

discharge at the

outlet profile of the basin ie. a point for which forecasts are

to be made. If inputs and output are given as continuous time

functions, then from system theory follows that the

relationship

between these functions may be expressed by the ell-known

convolution integral; representation of a linear system,

27

f u(t-c) x(t) dt
0
where the function u(t)

.(18)

y(t)

the impulse response function(IRF), or

instantaneous unit hydrograph(IUH), or kernel function. If _

continuous functions are sampled in specified uniform time
intervals of the length T to produce discrete time series, then
the integral (18) may be written in its discrete form,
j.
.(19

j 1

where yi

are the discharges and observed inpUs(raifall

or

discharge

respectively at fixed. time :intervals and u1 are the

ordinates of an impulse response function with a time base

(k-1) time units. Thus flow
weighted combination of k present

- j+l

the weights being given

graph1 2

Discrete convolution repr.esent0I6Y

(19) may also be ex0T- essed:i.vectormatriX

. (20)

where y is the vector of the discharges,

matrix composed of observed rainfall values,

reOtangUlar
nd u -is the

vector.

composed of values Of the unit hydrograph, or of the system

response function.
Relations (18),(19) and (20) are essentially describing relationship between single input single output and the system response
function( unit hydrograph) of a linear, time invariant system
while the estimation of the vector of weights u is actuallythat
of deriving the discrete form of the unit hydrograph by using one
of many different methods which are nowadays available for this
purpose.

The essential innovation of CLS, as introduced by Natale and

Todini in 1977, is the introduction of:
i) Multiple input Into above relations thus enabling estimation
of multiple impulse responses to each input function;
i) Constraints into the parameter estimation procedure which
help in obtaining reliable and physically realistic impulse
response functions ( i.e. unit hydrograph ).
The constrained estimator is less sensitive than the classical
least squares estimators to errors in the data, and its greater
efficiency means that reliable estimates may be obtained even
from small data sets.
Suppose now that instead of a single input x we have N input
constituting, for instance, rainfall series
N
observed at different rainfall stations within the river basin

series

and/or discharges observed at different upstream hydrological

profiles. Then the equation (20) may be generalized to read,

If

u2 +
1
denote now by X t

XX
1
and by

.(21)
(m,Nk) partitioning matrix

. (22)

X :
2'
the (Nk) vector

..(23)
then the equation (21) has essentially the same form as (20) but
obviously different meaning since it now includes multiple, N,
inputs and multiple, N, response functions of the same system. It
s, however, to be noted that the mathematical description (20)
of the river basin as a linear system

29

by definition, an

approximate one since a rainfall-runoff and/or runoff-runoff

process are not, in principle, linear and time invariant. Moreover, the rainfall and discharge measurements at the gauging
stations are unavoidably affected be errors that must be somehow
taken into account. Therefore, it is more realistic
consider,instead of relation (20), the following expression of our
model,
Xu
where

is anlength vector which can be considered as 'error'

'noise' term.
Among different common methods for estimating parameters(i
unit hydrographs) of the model represented by the equation (24)
such as, for example, maximum likelihood estimator, least squares
or Bayesian estimators, the CLS introduces a constrained
parameter estimation technique which is obtained by the
introduction of equality and inequality constraints into the
Gaussian least squares solution of a linear hydrological system.
It is namely true that for a linear rainfall-runoff model we have
a priori information about the nature of the parameter vector
and it seems reasonable that the estimating technique for
should incorporate all of the available knowledge thus reducing
the field of choice for values of the vector u.. For instance,
the process is linear we may assume that u k 0,which is equivalent to saying that water does not flow upstream the channel30

In addition, if the rainfall-runoff process

garded as

nvariant then
(26)

cb i

j=

with 0 a constant runoff coefficient whiob takes into account the

waterlossesbetweenthex.precipitatiOn input and the Output, r
being the

number of tributary flow ( i e the discharge type)

inputs.
For r 0, tributary flo
hence the conservation bf
j1
E (i_:

The CLS estimate Of the:parameter vector u is then given by the

following constrained estimator,
min ',3(e'e) :1/2 'X'Xu
u

Gu =1
where the G matrix a

If r =O,G is a (1 Nk) matrix for which the, elements are:

mrj
E,
T=1
i-1
T=1
to represent the following constraint
N k

E E

i.1 Jzi

m j+I
)10-j

E x1
-( )

T=1

E1

T=

Y(r)

31

which takes into account the water losses between the N rainfall
0.
for 1-k 5t
inputsx.andtheoutputy,fx.(z
) 0
1
If r > 0, G is a ,
( 1, Nk) matrix for which the elements are all
zeros except:

. (31 )

to represent equation (27) and the following water balance

equation
m-j+1
r+1 ji
relevant

-1)k

tl

. (32)

the whole system or r input tributary, flows, N-r

precipitation inputs and one outflow discharge vector, provided

m k.
Once the parameters of the vector u have been estimated, CLS
provides an estimate of the a priori unknown runoff coefficient
relevant

each x precipitation input by means

equation (26).

In this way, when using the CLS approach, it is not necessary to

proceed with net rainfall computation and hydrograph separation
prior to estimating the unit hydrographs(UH), since the model
calculates automatically the runoff coefficient directly from
total precipitation inputs and corresponding observed runoffs for
each time increment of the UN. This property of CLS,resulting in

rapid parameter identification and the possibility of its simultaneous use in routing, makes it more suitable for forecasting in
real time.,

32

A further extension of this model is the CLS Non Linear Threshold

Model combined with the API approach. The amount of rainfall
which will contribute to the storm hydrograph is strongly
influenced by the basin soil-moisture .Condition prevailing at the
time, and this is viewed as the major source of

linearity in

the relation between .rainfall and runoff. In order to accommodate

such non-linear effects in the CLS model, Todini and Wallis
introduced a threshold mechanism whereby the rainfall was split
into . two sequences on :the basis of a basin wetness threshold
criterion. In. its current form 'the threshold mechanism employs
the antecedent precipitation index API computed at time
API
K API
+ Pt
t
t-1
to split the rainfall

into two sequences f T denotes the API

threshold value at which the split is made, then the two split

.(34)

Each split input sequence is then directed through its own linear
system, one having a fast response (

P2,t) and the other a slow

response <P
1,t), with flow at any time t being given by the sum
of the outputs from the two systems.
To accommodate a seasonally varying APIt constant, Kt, a seasonal
API may also be defined as
APIt

K t API

Pt

.(35)

where
t

-a pc:1( 2n

40/360)

.(36)

33