Replace Process Heater

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Page 1

Proposed Regulation to Implement the California Cap-and-Trade Program: Supplemental Materials for the Compliance Pathways Analysis (Staff Report Chapter V and Appendix F)
Available for download at http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2010/capandtrade10/capandtrade10.htm
10/29/2010
References for this spreadsheet can be found in the Cap-and-Trade Regulation Staff Report References and/or Appendix F.
Assumptions

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical

Percent of Fuel
Used By
Process Heat
63%
26%
76%
20%

Process
Process Heater Process Heater
Heater Size
Size
Efficiency
Capacity
Range
(staff estimate) (staff estimate1)
(staff estimate)
(MMBTU/hr)
(MMBTU/hr)
(percent)
(percent)
>60
100
7783
0.9
1030
20
7783
0.8
10100
40
7783
0.8
10100
50
7783
0.85

Calculations

Average Process
Number of Total
Heater Fuel Use 2008 Emissions Number of
(MTCO2e)
Process Heaters
(MMBTU)
Entities
524
788,400
35,006,224 413,356,010
56
140,160
1,627,120
7,910,902
14
280,320
263,693
3,794,077
26
372,300
2,557,335
9,742,154

Replace Low Efficiency Process Heaters

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical
Total

Feasibility
(percent)
15%
15%
15%
15%

Unit Size
Unit Cost for
(MMBTU/hr)
Size
50 $
1,500,000

Efficiency of
Old Unit
(percent)
77%
77%
77%
77%

Interest Rate
0.30

Efficiency of
New Unit
(percent)
87%
87%
87%
87%

Years
20

Efficiency
Increase
(percent)
13%
13%
13%
13%

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steal
Chemical
Total
1

Price per Unit

$
3,000,000
$
600,000
$
1,200,000
$
1,500,000

Total Annual
Savings
$ 61,883,421
$
1,184,339
$
568,010
$
1,458,495
$ 65,094,266

Number of Units
79
8
2
4

2020 Price of
Fuel
($/MMBTU)
Annuity Factor
0.3015868848 $
7.69

Replace Low Efficiency Process Heaters

Total Annual
Capital Cost
$ 71,154,538
$ 1,531,993
$
734,746
$ 1,775,648
$ 75,196,926

Replace Medium Efficiency Process Heaters

Carbon Intensity
Natural Gas
(MTCO2e/MMBTU)
0.053

Feasibility
(percent)
20%
20%
20%
20%

Efficiency of Efficiency Efficiency

Old Unit
of New Unit Increase Number of
(percent)
(percent) (percent)
Units
82%
87%
6%
105
82%
87%
6%
11
82%
87%
6%
3
82%
87%
6%
5

Total Fuel
Reduction
(MMBTU)
5,040,927
96,474
46,269
118,807
5,302,477

Hours per Year

8760

Replace Medium Efficiency Process Heaters

Abatement Cost
($/MTCO2e)
$
$
$
$

Total Fuel Reduction GHG Reduction

(MTCO2e)
(MMBTU)
8,052,390
426,777
154,108
8,168
73,911
3,917
189,782
10,058
8,470,191
448,920

22
43
43
32

Price per Unit

$
3,000,000
$
600,000
$
1,200,000
$
1,500,000

Total Annual Capital

Cost
$
71,154,538
$
1,531,993
$
734,746
$
1,775,648
$
75,196,926

$
$
$
$
$

Abatement Cost
Total Annual
($/MTCO2e)
Savings
38,740,028 $
121
741,416 $
155
355,584 $
155
913,042 $
137
40,750,069

Uses the widest range of boiler efficiencies

8/31/10

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Page 2

GHG
Reduction
(MTCO2e)
267,169
5,113
2,452
6,297
281,031

8/31/10

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Optimize Process Heater

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Assumptions

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical

Percent of Fuel
Used By Process
Heat
63%
26%
76%
20%

Process
Process Heater
Heater Size
Size
Range
(staff estimate)
(MMBTU/hr)
(MMBTU/hr)
>60
100
10-100
20
10-100
40
10-100
50

Process Heater
Efficiency
Capacity
Average Process
(staff estimate1)
(staff estimate) Number of Total Heater Fuel Use
(percent)
(percent)
Process Heaters
(MMBTU)
77-83
0.9
524
788,400
77-83
0.8
56
140,160
77-83
0.85
13
297,840
77-83
0.9
25
394,200

Optimize Process Heater (Category 1)

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical
Total

Interest Rate
0.30

Feasibility
(percent)
34%
34%
34%
34%

Years

Carbon Intensity of
Natural Gas
(MTCO2e/MMBTU)
0.053

GHG
Reduction
(MTCO2e)
147,659
2,826
1,355
3,480
155,320

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical
Total
1
2

Price per Unit

$
121,179
$
21,543
$
45,779
$
60,589

Total Annual
Savings
$
21,410,839
$
409,766
$
196,524
$
504,620
$
22,521,748

Feasibility
Efficiency Increase
(percent)
(percent)
40%
1%
40%
1%
40%
1%
40%
1%

Number of Units
212
23
5
10

Total Fuel
GHG Reduction
Reduction
(MTCO2e)
(MMBTU)
1,671,612
88,595
31,992
1,696
15,343
813
39,397
2,088
1,758,344
93,192

Optimize Process Heater (Category 2)

Abatement Cost
($/MTCO2e)
$
$
$
$

35,006,224
1,627,120
263,693
2,557,335

Number of
Entities
413,356,010
7,910,902
3,794,077
9,742,154

Hours per Year

8760

Optimize Process Heater (Category 1)

Total Annual
Capital Cost
$ 6,457,228
$
123,580
$
59,269
$
152,187
$ 6,792,264

2008 Emissions
(MTCO2e)

Optimize Process Heater (Category 2)

Efficiency
Increase
Total Fuel Reduction
(percent)
Number of Units
(MMBTU)
2%
177
2,786,020
2%
19
53,319
2%
4
25,572
2%
8
65,662
2,930,573

2020 Price of
Fuel
($/MMBTU)
Annuity Factor
20 0.3015868848 $
7.69

Page 3
Calculations

(101)
(101)
(101)
(101)

Price per Unit2

$
181,768
$
32,314
$
68,668
$
90,884

Total Annual
Total Annual
Capital Cost
Savings
$
9,685,842 $
12,846,503
$
185,370 $
245,859
$
88,904 $
117,914
$
228,280 $
302,772
$ 10,188,396 $
13,513,049

Abatement Cost
($/MTCO2e)
$
$
$
$

(36)
(36)
(36)
(36)

Uses the widest range of boiler efficiencies

For Category 2, staff assumed a 50 percent greater cost than Category 1

8/31/10

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Page 4

Assumptions

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical

Percent of Fuel
Use By Process
Heat
63%
26%
76%
20%

Calculations
Process Heater
Efficiency
Capacity
(staff estimate1)
(staff estimate)
Number of Total
(percent)
(percent)
Process Heaters
77-83
0.9
524
77-83
0.8
56
77-83
0.85
13
77-83
0.9
25

Process Heater Process Heater Size

Size Range
(staff estimate)
(MMBTU/hr)
(MMBTU/hr)
>60
100
10-100
20
10-100
40
10-100
50

Recover Flue Gas Heat (Category 1)

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical
Total

Interest Rate
0.30

Feasibility
Efficiency Increase
(percent)
(percent)
15%
2.0%
15%
3.5%
15%
3.5%
15%
2.0%

Years
20

2020 Price of Fuel

($/MMBTU)
Annuity Factor
0.3015868848 $
7.69

Carbon Intensity Natural

Gas
(MTCO2e/MMBTU)
0.053

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical
Total
1

Price per Unit

$
424,125
$
131,950
$
280,394
$
212,063

$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$

Total Annual
Savings
9,530,047
319,179
153,079
224,608
10,226,913

Feasibility
(percent)
18%
18%
18%
18%

Efficiency Increase
Total Fuel Reduction
(percent)
Number of Units
(MMBTU)
1.0%
94
744,041
1.8%
10
24,919
1.8%
2
11,951
1.0%
4
17,536
798,447

GHG Reduction
(MTCO2e)
39,434
1,321
633
929
42,318

Hours per Year

8760

Recover Flue Gas Heat (Category 1)

Total Annual
Capital Cost
10,059,480
336,911
161,583
237,086
10,795,060

Number of Entities
413,356,010
7,910,902
3,794,077
9,742,154

Recover Flue Gas Heat (Category 2)

GHG Reduction
Total Fuel Reduction
(MTCO2e)
(MMBTU)
1,240,068
65,724
41,532
2,201
19,919
1,056
29,226
1,549
1,330,746
70,530

Number of Units
79
8
2
4

Average Process
2008 Emissions
Heater Fuel Use
(MTCO2e)
(MMBTU)
788,400
35,006,224
140,160
1,627,120
297,840
263,693
394,200
2,557,335

Recover Flue Gas Heat (Category 2)

Abatement Cost
($/MTCO2e)
$
$
$
$

8
8
8
8

Price per Unit

$
424,125
$
131,950
$
280,394
$
212,063

Total Annual
Capital Cost
Total Annual Savings
$
10,059,480 $
5,718,028
$
336,911 $
191,508
$
161,583 $
91,847
$
237,086 $
134,765
$
10,795,060 $
6,136,148

Abatement Cost
($/MTCO2e)
$
$
$
$

110
110
110
110

Uses the widest range of boiler efficiencies

8/31/10

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Page 5

Assumptions

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical

Percent of Fuel Process Heater Size

Use by
Range
Process Heat
(MMBTU/hr)
63%
>60
26%
10-100
76%
10-100
20%
10-100

Calculations

Process Heater
Size
Process Heater Efficiency
Capacity
(staff estimate
(staff estimate1)
(staff estimate)
(MBTU/hr)
(percent)
(percent)
100
77-83
0.9
20
77-83
0.8
40
77-83
0.85
50
77-83
0.9

Number of Total
Process Heaters
524
56
13
25

Replace Refractory Brick (Category 1)

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical
Total

Interest Rate
0.30

Feasibility
Efficiency Increase
(percent)
(percent)
4.0%
1.0%
4.0%
1.0%
4.0%
1.0%
4.0%
1.0%

Years
20

2020 Price of Fuel

Annuity Factor
($/MMBTU)
0.3015868848 $
7.69

Carbon Intensity Natural

Gas (MTCO2e/MMBTU)
0.053

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical
Total
1

Price per Unit

$
72,707
$
12,926
$
27,467
$
36,354

4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%

Efficiency
Increase
(percent)
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%

Number of
Units
25
3
1
1

Total Fuel
Reduction
(MMBTU)
99,205
1,899
911
2,338
104,353

GHG
Reduction
(MTCO2e)
5,258
101
48
124
5,531

Replace Refractory Brick (Category 2)

Abatement Cost
($/MTCO2e)

$
$
$
$

Feasibility
(percent)

Hours per Year

8760

Replace Refractory Brick (Category 1)

Total Annual Capital
Total Annual
Cost
Savings
$
459,862 $
1,270,673
$
8,801 $
24,318
$
4,221 $
11,663
$
10,838 $
29,948
$
483,722 $
1,336,602

35,006,224
1,627,120
263,693
2,557,335

Number of
Entities
413,356,010
7,910,902
3,794,077
9,742,154

Replace Refractory Brick (Category 2)

GHG Reduction
Total Fuel Reduction
(MTCO2e)
(MMBTU)
165,342
8,763
3,164
168
1,518
80
3,897
207
173,921
9,218

Number of Units
21
2
1
1

2008
Emissions
(MTCO2e)

Average Process
Heater Fuel Use
(MMBTU)
788,400
140,160
297,840
394,200

(93)
(93)
(93)
(93)

Price per Unit

$
72,707
$
12,926
$
27,467
$
36,354

Total Annual Capital

Cost
$
459,862
$
8,801
$
4,221
$
10,838
$
483,722

Total Annual
Savings
$
762,404
$
14,591
$
6,998
$
17,969
$
801,961

Abatement
Cost
($/MTCO2e)
$
$
$
$

(58)
(58)
(58)
(58)

Uses the widest range of boiler efficiencies

8/31/10

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Assumption
Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical

Percent of Fuel Used By 2008 Emissions

(MTCO2e)
Process Heat
63%
35,006,224
26%
1,627,120
76%
263,693
20%
2,557,335

Number of Entities
413,356,010
7,910,902
3,794,077
9,742,154

Insulation Maintenance (Category 1)

Feasibility
(percent)

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical
Total

40%
40%
40%
40%

Interest Rate
0.30

Years
20

Insulation Maintenance (Category 2)

Efficiency
Increase
Total Fuel Reduction
(percent)
(MMBTU)
3.5%
5,786,984
3.5%
110,753
3.5%
53,117
3.5%
136,390
6,087,244

2020 Price of Fuel

($/MMBTU)
Annuity Factor
0.3015868848 $
7.69

GHG Reduction
(MTCO2e)
306,710
5,870
2,815
7,229
322,624

Carbon Intensity
Natural Gas
(MTCO2e/MMBTU)
0.053

Insulation Maintenance (Category 1)

Sub-Sector
Petroleum
Food
Iron and Steel
Chemical
Total

8/31/10

$
$
$
$

Page 6

Calculations

Total Capital Cost

(2 Year Payback)
88,947,104
1,702,290
816,420
2,096,344

Total Annual
Capital Cost
$
26,825,280
$
513,388
$
246,222
$
632,230
$
28,217,120

Total Annual Savings

$
44,473,552
$
851,145
$
408,210
$
1,048,172
$
46,781,079

Feasibility
(percent)
5%
5%
5%
5%

Efficiency
Increase
(percent)
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%

GHG
Reduction
(MTCO2e)

Total Fuel
Reduction
(MMBTU)
1,550,085
29,666
14,228
36,533
1,630,512

82,155
1,572
754
1,936
86,417

Hours per Year

8760

Insulation Maintenance (Category 2)

Abatement Cost
($/MTCO2e)
$
$
$
$

(58)
(58)
(58)
(58)

Price per Unit

$ 35,737,676
$
683,956
$
328,026
$
842,281

Total Annual
Capital Cost
$ 10,778,014
$
206,272
$
98,928
$
254,021
$ 11,337,236

Deliberative Confidential

Total Annual
Savings
$ 11,912,559
$
227,985
$
109,342
$
280,760
$ 12,530,646

Abatement
Cost
($/MTCO2e)
$
$
$
$

(14)
(14)
(14)
(14)

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