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Analyst Presentation
April 16,
16 2010
Received Competent Persons Reports (CPR) for 4 most promising blocks ; Ratna, Raniganj, Rajmahal and Nigeria
Emerging as a significant player in CBM in India with low risk, significant demand and better fiscal regime
Raniganj & Rajmahal 2C & prospective CBM resources: 993 BCF & 4.7 TCF respectively
Execution of off take Agreement with Matix Fertilizers and Chemicals for supply of 2.8
2 8 mmscmd for 20 years
Nigeria PSC executed in March, 2010; plans are under way to farm out 37% in favour of local partner;
Nigeria has shown great potential with 2C and best estimate prospective resource of ~ 126 mmboe
Trail production of gas from raniganj to commence by Q2 CY2010 & Commercial Production to start by Q4 CY 2010.
Total Reserve portfolio increased to ~1400 mmboe ; 2C & prospective resource 1162 mmboe & unrisked
resource 238 mmboe
Achieved throughput of 3.60 MMTPA for the quarter and 13. 50 MMTPA for the year
76 % of the crude processed was Heavy or Ultra Heavy, helping strengthen refining margins
Natural Gas ( 1 mmscmd) usage and Mangla Crude (20 30 kbpd) processing to commence in this quarter.
quarter
Refinery Expansion Phase I on track, scheduled for mechanical completion by March, 2011 - Overall progress of 53%
Achieved 729 days of Lost Time Incident Free operation, equivalent to 13.19 million safe man-hours
Won British Safety Council International Award for 2009 5th award for EOL for Health Safety and Environment
Awarded second position, CII-SHE Award 2009, in the manufacturing (Large) category in the Western Region
1338 retail outlets operational all over India, with addition of around 50 retail outlets in the last quarter
Focus on Gujarat and Western India due to sales tax and logistics advantages
Captured 7.53 % market share in MS and HSD retail in Gujarat; currently in the process of adding Auto LPG facilities in the ROs
73% of sales (by value) in the domestic market in the quarter; 75% in the year
Captured 13% share of bitumen market in India; commissioned the packed bitumen sales in this quarter
Increased the number of supply locations in India to 25, lowering the cost of placing products in far-away markets
Retail Sales for the quarter Rs. 676 crore the year ( FY 2010 - Rs 2875 crore & Qty - 0.8 MT)
Essar Oil clocked Turnover of Rs. 42402 crore for the year 2009-10; EBIDTA Rs 1935 crores; GRM 4.38 $/ bbl
Net Profit for year 2009-2010 is Rs. 29 crore, as against loss of Rs 514 crore for 2008-09
For quarter ending March-2010: Turnover of Rs. 11941 crore; EBIDTA Rs 680 crores; GRM 5.12 $/ bbl
Net Profit for Quarter ending March-2010 is Rs 179 crore as against a loss of Rs 226 crore in Quarter ending Dec-09
Equity Infusion of Rs 2000 Crores committed by promoters & tie up of Debt of Rs 4600 crore for Phase I Refinery Expansion
Project, completed
Essar Energy plc, holding company of Essars refinery, E&P and power businesses, to list at London Stock Exchange
Part of proceeds will be utilized for refinery expansion, E&P activities and corporate purpose
CEOs Message
g
Refining margins have bottomed out in this quarter and are expected to be higher in
coming quarters boosted by demand from emerging economies.
Per capita oil consumption in India set to rise with growth in Indian economy, increase
in per capita income, growth in vehicles and Govt. focus on infrastructure spending.
India will remain the anchor market for Essars expanded capacity and the company
will
ill continue
ti
t augmentt its
to
it retail
t il network
t
k to
t realize
li the
th opportunities
t iti available
il bl in
i
Indian Market
Going forward,
forward E&P business is expected to emerge as a major value creator for the
company
1.4%
4.8%
3.1%
10.0%
7.1%
GDP (re
eal) growth rate
(2009 2014)
46,400
32,700
15,200
10,200
7.5%
3.6%
3.5%
2.4%
2.3%
UK
US
6,500
3,100
USA
EU
Russia
Brazil
China
India
Total
160
68
140
80
97
100
40
20
India
32
21
26
Brazil
Russia
51
24.4%
47
16 0%
16.0%
30.1%
(US$154bn)
41
80
60
120
CAGR: 22%
120
China
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009
9.6%
25
19.8%
(US$43bn)
39
33
29
21
26
32
2007 08
2008 09
2009 10
Energy
Transportation
40
2010 11
51
25.8%
2011 12
IIndian
di G
Govt.
t X Plan
Pl
(FY03 FY07)
IIndian
di G
Govt.
t XI Plan
Pl
(FY08 FY12)
Others
Source: Projections of Investment in Infrastructure during the Eleventh Plan available on http://www.infrastructure.gov.in/
1.9%
23.1
11 0
11.0
7.3
4.4
2.2
USA
EU
Russia
Brazil
0.9
China
0.8%
0.7%
9.8%
18.9%
6.9%
4.5
2.1
1.2
Brazil
China
India
105.7
75.3
35.1
Russia
India
USA
EU
Source: KBC
Note: Figures in ovals represent gas consumption CAGR (2003 2008).
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009, CIA World Factbook
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009, CIA World Factbook
120
16.0
100
12.0
80
8.0
60
40
4.0
20
0.0
0
2000
2010
GDP per capita
Source: KBC
2020
2030
Cars p
per '000 drivers
900
140
20.0
2005
2030
800
German
700
UK
Japan
600
500
S Korea
400
Brazil
Russia
300
China
Thailand
200
100
Kuwait
Pakistan
India
0
1,000
Car ownership
10,000
100,000
Industryy Trends
$12
16%
13.90%*
14%
MS Growth
HSD Growth
11.30%
11.10%
12%
6%
4.30%
6.80
8.80%
7.40%
6.90%
8.50%
6.70%
8.70%*
4.50%
2%
$6
4.95
$4
4.80%
4%
Light-Heavy
Light
Heavy Price Diffrential
(Arab Light -Arab Heavy)
8.45
$8
10%
8%
10.00
$10
4.35
2.65
$2
1.70
2.20
1.20
1.55
1.40%
1.20%
1.50
$0
0%
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
Gasoil
Apr - Feb.
09-10
FO
Jet
Gasoline
$12
11.2
10.1
8.0
9.0
6.2
7.6
7.6
6.9
92
9.2
7.3
8.8
7.0
6.9
$7
8.2
6.2
7.8
5.9
6.0
5.6
6.9
7.2
7.0
7.7
6.3
6.5
8.8
7.5
8.2
10.2
10.5
6.3
6.2
3.5
$2
2.2
2.9
-1.9
-2.9
8.7
-2.3
-2.1
$(3)
-4.0
-4.5
-3.3
-7.6
-4.9
-5 4
-5.4
-4.9
-5.4
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
$(8)
Refining
Marketing
10
A high
g impact,
p , Indian-led E&P p
platform
Mehsana(a)
70% interest (ESU)
2P reserves: 2mmbbl ((oil))
Potentially significant CBM play
Rajmahal(b)
100% interest in CBM block
Best estimate p
prospective
p
Vietnam(e)
100% interest in block 114
Unrisked/undiscovered in
in-place
place
Nigeria(c)(e)
100% interest in offshore block OPL
Madagascar(e)
Australia(e)
Ratna /R Series(d)
50% interest
2C resources: 81mmboe (92% oil,
8% gas)
Commercial production: Q4
CY2013((d))
Expected gross peak production:
35kbbl/d
CPR by RPS Energy (2010)
Note: Reserves and resources data is working interest, adjusted to reflect Essar Oils interest
(a)
Signed PSC for Oil; CBM rights subject to government approval and modification in government policy
(b)
Provisional winner, formal award awaited
( )
(c)
Si
Signed
d PSC
(d)
PSC expected to be signed by June 2010, which is subject to a government approval process
(e)
Subject to necessary approval for transfer to Essar Oil
(f)
c.22mmboe (2C) of gas classified as development not viable
(g)
Relates to 2C and best estimate prospective resources
Source: Company information
Raniganj(c)
100% interest
2C and best estimate prospective
11
2C resources(a)
Oil
Gas
Total
Oil
Gas
Total
Oil
Gas
Total
Comments
Ownership
mmbbl
Bcf
mmboe
mmbbl
Bcf
mmboe
mmbbl
Bcf
mmboe
Capex(i)
(US$mm)
Discovered fields.
Development to commence
post signing of PSC
50%(e)
74
40
81
568
$5.3/bbl
35k
bbl/d
)(j)
Raniganj (CBM)((c)(j)
100%
201
33
792
132
439
$0.43/
mmbtu
3.5(p)
mmscm/d
70%(f)
2(m)
Nigeria(c)(j)(o)
63%(k) (q)
11
136
33
49
264
93
16
Large
g acreage.
g Situated in
rich coal belt
100%
4 723
4,723
787
Assam(l)
100%(q)
10
10
13
50%(h) (q)
186
31
49.5%
49
5%(g) (q)
30
30
100%(q)
1,000
167
87
377
150
49
5,779
1,012
40
1,185
238
1,055
Assets
Mehsana
(j)
Mumbai Offshore
Indonesia((l))
Vietnam(l)
Total
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
(h)
(i)
(j)
(k)
(l)
(m)
(n)
(p)
(q)
(l)
Opex
Peak
Prodn.
Working interest,
interest adjusted to reflect Essar Oils
Oil s interest
RPS Energy CPR (2010)
Netherland Sewell & Associates Inc. CPR (2010)
Advanced Resources International CPR (2010)
For Ratna / R-Series, balance 50% is held by ONGC (40%) and Premier Oil (10%)
For Mehsana (ESU oil field), balance 30% ownership is held by ONGC. Essar Oils interest in the rest of the block is 100%
For Indonesia, balance 50.5% ownership is held by GSPC
For Mumbai Offshore, balance 50% ownership is held by Noble Energy
Capex for Ratna & R-series fields and Raniganj CBM blocks are for the full field development (net share of Essar Oil)
Mehsana - signed PSC for Oil; CBM rights subject to government approval and change in government policy; Rajmahal provisional winner, formal award awaited; Raniganj PSC signed; Nigeria - block awarded, PSC signed
Ratna - PSC expected to be signed by June 2010 (subject to government approval process)
In discussion with local partner to farm down to 63%
Essar Oil estimates
2mmbl of 2P reserves (Essar Oil estimate)
c.22mmboe of gas classified as development not viable
Relates to 2C and best estimate prospective resources
Subject to necessary approvals for transfer to Essar Oil
12
Essar Energy
gy Exploration
p
& Production
High impact E&P platform
Key highlights
1,012
5%
83%
95%
(a)
(b)
M h
Mehsana
2P reserves: 2mmbl
2
bl (oil)
( il)
1,400
13%
87%
150
58%
42%
2P and 2C Best estimate Unrisked/
contingent prospective inplace
resources
resources
resources
Total
resources
13
Leadingg p
private Indian gas
g player
p y
Gas reserves and resources
25
23 0
23.0
20
(tcf)
15
10
5.9
5
2.1
1.0
0.2
0
Reliance
Industries (a)
Niko
Resources (a)
Great Eastern
Energy (c)
(a) Wood Mackenzie working interest commercial and technical gas reserves for India
(b) Includes Rajmahal (4,723bcf), Raniganj (993bcf), Mumbai Offshore (186bcf), Ratna (40bcf) working interest 2C and best estimate prospective resources
(c) As per broker research (RBC 9-Nov-09) working interest remaining reserves
Source: Company information
information, RPS Energy
Energy, ARI and NSAI (for Essar Energy)
Energy), Broker research (for Great Eastern Energy),
Energy) Wood Mackenzie (for Reliance Industries
Industries, Niko Resources and Indus Gas)
14
Resources
Interest
Current status
Key milestones
Government take
and pricing
40
Capex to full
development
35
30
Opex guidance
US$5.3/bbl
CY 2010 : c.US$9mn
US$9
(net
( t share)
h )
CY 2011 : c.US$27mn (net share)
CY 2012 : c.US$79mn (net share)
Other
API 32 45
Cost/well: US$11 12mn
Evacuation
Customer
25
20
15
10
5
0
FY12
2
FY13
3
FY14
4
FY15
5
FY16
6
FY17
7
FY18
8
FY19
9
FY20
0
FY21
1
FY22
2
FY23
3
FY24
4
FY25
5
FY26
6
FY27
7
FY28
8
FY29
9
FY30
0
FY31
1
FY32
2
FY33
3
FY34
4
FY35
5
FY36
6
FY37
7
FY38
8
FY39
9
FY40
0
FY41
1
FY42
2
FY43
3
Gross produc
ction (Kbp/d)
15
# Premier Oil is currently Operator under terms of award. The Joint Venture parties have discussed in good faith to implement a joint operatorship model post execution of PSC subject to requisite approval
Resources
Interest /
operator
Current status
Key milestones
Opex guidance
US$0.43/mmbtu
Other
Cost/well: US$0.63mn
Evacuation
Customers
Government take
and pricing
Production profile
Capex to full
development
4.0
Production (mm
mscm/d)
3.5
3.0
2.5
20
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
FY09
9
FY10
0
FY11
FY12
2
FY13
3
FY14
4
FY15
5
FY16
6
FY17
7
FY18
8
FY19
9
FY20
0
FY21
FY22
2
FY23
3
FY24
4
FY25
5
FY26
6
FY27
7
FY28
8
FY29
9
FY30
0
FY31
FY32
2
FY33
3
FY34
4
FY35
5
FY36
6
FY37
7
FY38
8
FY39
9
FY40
0
FY41
FY42
2
0.0
Note: FY ended March 31st. Production profile reflects both 2C and best estimate prospective resources
Source: Company information, NSAI
16
17
Vadinar refineryy
18
Operational Performance
Ultra Heavy
Crude Processed
15.00
13.50
26%
27%
31%
60%
52%
13%
17%
QE0309
QE1209
QE0310
Export
PSUs
80%
9.00
Light
100%
11 95
11.95
12.00
Heavy
27%
28%
60%
46%
6 00
6.00
3.31
3.51
40%
3.60
3.00
20%
0.00
0%
QE0309
QE1209
QE0310
FY-09
FY-10
51%
57%
28%
22%
15%
FY- 09
FY-10
100%
Heavy
Distillates
Middle
Light
90%
Direct/ Bulk
Retail
80%
100%
23%
24%
25%
23%
24%
80%
70%
11%
60%
9%
8%
7%
7%
7%
56%
57%
3%
6%
8%
7%
50%
60%
52%
49%
44%
51%
48%
40%
40%
30%
58%
65%
60%
20%
20%
24%
28%
31%
26%
27%
0%
10%
22%
30%
29%
26%
25%
QE1209
QE0310
FY-09
FY-10
0%
QE0309
QE1209
QE0310
FY-09
FY-10
QE0309
19
(a)
Key highlights
1
Low cost,
cost safe and efficient operations refinery operating cost
US$1-2 per barrel lower than global peers
18
14
Post
Total cumulative
capex(b)
US$2.5bn
US$4.0bn
US$8.4bn
US$1.5bn
US$4.4bn
6.1
11.8
12.8
31.3
24.8
24.0
Sulphur % avg.:
1.6%
3.0%
3.0%
Product grade:
Euro III/IV
Euro IV/V
Euro V/
US Spec/
CARB
Total incremental
capex(b)
Complexity:
p
y
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Post
The timing for Phase 2 will be finalised based on a review of market conditions and
attainment of financial closure
INR/US$: 50.95
Ultra-heavy crude defined as having API <25 and heavy crude as having API between 25 & 33
Calculated on the basis of number of operating days per annum
20
500
Essar current
200
Surgutne
eftegaz Kirishi
540
HOV
VENSA St Croix
580
FPCC Mailiao
605
S-Oil Onsan
Exxon
nMobil Jurong
730
GS-Caltex
400
SK Ulsan
600
A - Paraguana
PDVSA
Reliance - Jamnagar
bpd
1,200
1,000
800
1,240
940
817
688
460
279
60,000
30 000
30,000
50,000
25,000
40,000
20,000
30,000
Capex ($/bpd)
Capex ($/bpd)
15,000
10,000
20,000
10,000
5,000
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
World
average
Capacity (kbp/d)
China
Saudi
Arabia
India
Essar
Energy
current
Essar
Essar
Energy Energy
post
post
phase I phase II
Note: The timing for Phase 2 will be finished based on a review of market condition and attainment of financial closure
Source: KBC, Company information
22
Expansion
p
to provide
p
crude as well as product
p
flexibilityy
Ultraheavy
20%
Crude mix
C
Light
28%
Light
6%
Heavy
31%
Heavy
25%
Ultraheavyy
63%
Ultray
heavy
64%
Heavy
52%
14MT
(current)
18MT
(expected post phase 1 expansion)
Light
distillates
22%
Heavy end
25%
Product yield
Light
11%
Heavy end
15%
Fuell loss
F
l
6%
Middle
distillates
49%
Middle
distillates
47%
14MT
(current)
36MT
(expected post phase 2 expansion)
Light
distillates
22%
VGO
10%
Fuel loss
4%
18MT
(expected post phase 1 expansion)
Heavy end
15%
Middle
distillates
48%
Light
distillates
29%
Propylene
3%
Fuel loss
5%
36MT
(expected post phase 2 expansion)
Processing an increasingly high proportion of high sulphur and low API crudes
Focus on delivery of higher margin products (middle/light distillates)
Note:
23
Gasoline: 9MT
LPG/ Naphtha
Gasoline
5.0
7.8
16.9
13.9
Euro III
13.0%
4.2
Euro V
49.9%
24.4
Euro IV
37.0%
Diesel
40.9
42.9
37.8
Euro IV
47.2%
J t /Kero
Jet
/K
6.5
Euro V
31.2%
6.5
11.0
Fuel Oil
10.2
Pet Coke
20.3
2.8
Propylene
3.3
11.4
Others
Fuel & Loss Residue
4.3
11.4
1.5
1.5
6.1
4.0
5.4
14MT (a)
18MT (a)
36MT (a)
Detailed
Engineering
y Model reviews
completed
y Schedule A package
for all Units received.
Construction
Procurement
y
y
y
25
Financial Highlights
26
Financial Results
Particulars
Throughput - Million Tonnes
INCOME
Income from operation
Less : Excise duty & Taxes
p
Net Income from operation
Other Income
Total Income
Quarter
Mar-09
3 31
3.31
Quarter
Dec-09
3 51
3.51
Quarter
Mar-10
3 60
3.60
2008-09
Full Year
11 95
11.95
2009-10
Full Year
13 50
13.50
8,031
1,248
6,783
,
51
6,834
11,421
1,494
9,927
,
38
9,965
11,941
1,489
10,452
,
92
10,544
41,816
4,300
37,516
,
184
37,700
42,402
5,897
36,505
,
210
36,715
EXPENDITURE
Cost of Goods Sold
Operating Expenditure
Forex Loss/( Gain)
Total Expenditure
5,469
333
(94)
5,708
9,576
330
(169)
9,738
9,831
279
(246)
9,864
34,203
1,033
1,261
36,498
34,255
1,186
(661)
34,780
EBITDA
1,126
228
680
1,203
1,935
322
804
175
629
(32)
661
10.33
8.69
0.92
285
((58))
184
(242)
(15)
(226)
2.21
0.13
(3.24)
319
360
181
179
179
5.12
2.82
(0.63)
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,091
111
655
(544)
(30)
(514)
$ 7.69
$ 4.89
$ 2.56
$
$
$
1,179
757
728
28
(1)
29
4.38
2.29
(1.90)
27
Comparative
p
GRM
12.00
10.69
10 33
10.33
10.00
8.90
8.00
6.74
6.00
5.12
5.51
IEA- Margin
4.00
4.00
EOL GRM
2.21
2.06
2.00
1 77
1.77
2.05
0.92
0.00
Q1'09
Q2'09
Q3'09
Q4'09
Q1'10
Q2'10
Q3'10
-1.82
Q4'10
-0.77
-2.00
-1.93
-3.24
-4.00
Refining
g Margins
g
28
Refining
Distribution
Expansion of Retail
Outlets to 1500
Significant potential
of CBM and Oil
& Gas blocks
Phase I Expansion
Ph
E
i to
t
increase the
throughput to 18
MMTPA & slated to
complete by
March 2011
March,
Deregulation of
Petroleum Products
(MS/HSD) by Govt.
Phase II expansion to
increase throughput to 36
MMTPA
International distribution
capability
29
Lets Begin !
30