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Ge0 statistical
Case Studies
edited by
G. MATHERON
and
M. ARMSTRONG
Centre de Geostatistique,
Fontainebleau, France
1987 by D.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface
Vll
J. RIVOIRARD /
23
39
and G. SANNA /
Multipurpose Geostatistical Modelling of a Bauxite Ore body in
Sardinia
69
93
P. CHAUVET /
P. A. DOWD
L.
MOINARD /
A. GALLI
and G. MEUNIER
Drift Method
D.
121
135
149
169
and 1. RIVOIRARD /
Global Recoverable Reserves: Testing Various Changes of
Support Models on Uranium Data
187
209
CH. KA VOURINOS /
A.
ZAUPA REMACRE /
GUIBAL /
H. SANS
Index
247
PREFACE
G. MATHERON
M. ARMSTRONG
Jacques RIVOIRARD
Centre de Geostatistique
ECOLE NATIONALE SUPERIEURE DES MINES DE PARIS
35 rue Saint-Honorf, 77305 FONTAINEBLEAU, France
ABSTRACT
The objective of this paper is to show how well known the
structure is for a particular uranium deposit. After presenting
the average vertical variogram for all the holes, some of the
individual variograms will be studied and we will show the
influence of a few very rich holes on the overall variogram. This
turns out to be poorly defined. The first order variogram, which
also has been considered, is curiously similar to the usual
variogram, whereas the structure of the translated logarithm
proves to be better known.
1. PRELIMINARY REMARKS ON COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS
Determining the geostatistical structure is often a difficult
task.
Basically the objective is to estimate the spatial
integral:
",((h)
[z(x+h) - z(x)]2 dx
2l sns _h l Sns
-h
Olll,,<l" ),.
J. RIVOIRARD
J. RIVOIRARD
continuity,
16) .
! z (x+h) - z (x)! dx
SoS
-h
J. RIVOIRARD
-10
-40
Fig. 1
10
15
20
25
1. RIVOIRARD
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.1I
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.
Fig. 2
5.
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Fig. 3
15.
ALL
0.0
10.
Average variogram.
20.
variance
150
1 1 1
Fig. 4
4 1
B 7 5 3
8+
60.0
50.0
'!0.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 5
mean
0.5
10
J. RIVOIRARD
100.
75.0
50.0
25.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 6
1I
100.
75.0
50.0
25.0
0.0
0.0
Fig.- 7
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 8
125.0
100.
75.0
50.0
25.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 9
11
12
J. RIVOIRARD
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 10
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 11
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 12
l,I0.0
30.0
20.0
----------
10.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 13
13
J. RIVOIRARD
14
200.
150.
100.
50.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 14
-1
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
lI.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 15
-2
7.0
6.0
5.0
1.1.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 16
-3
1.1.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 17
15
16
1. RIVOIRARD
-8
2.5
2.B
1.5
1. B
B.5
B.B
B.B
Fig. 18
1-0RO
1. B
B.9
B.8
B.7
B.6
B.5
B.~
B.3
B.2
B.l
B.0
0.B
Fig. 19a
2/1-0RD
15.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
Fig. 19b
lL
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
Fig. 20
17
1. RIVOIRARD
18
2L
1.5
1.9
9.5
9.9
9.0
Fig. 21
3L
0.9
0.B
0.7
9.6
0.5
0.Q
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.9
9.0
Fig. 22
19
variance
0.04
11
2 1
1 1
11
Fig . 23
lneBin
0.3
ALL L
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Fig. 24
20
J. RIVOJRARD
-lL
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Fig. 25
-2L
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Fig. 26
-3L
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Fig. 27
-8L
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
Fig. 28
21
J. RIVOIRARD
22
No 1
0 . 79
0.19
0.51
0 . 56
1 .26
1.14
2 . 47
5 . 86
26 . 89
24 . 07
20 . 59
10 . 30
5 . 31
57.94
26 . 04
22 . 34
11 . 52
42 . 79
1 . 50
9 .. 89
2 . 33
0 . 67
1 .4 8
0 . 15
0 . 42
0 . 82
1 .4 8
4 . 72
6 . 57
3 . 31
4 . 13
1 1 .31
12 .4 8
7 . 68
12 . 17
0 . 59
0 . 15
l. 0 4
1 . 05
1 . 73
1.98
3 . 54
0 . 09
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0 . 83
0.16
0 . 09
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0 . 82
1.14
6 . 52
0.24
0.09
0.20
0.09
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1 .82
0.09
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18.07
38.72
27 . 93
23.93
5 . 81
0.65
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0.09
0 . 09
0 . 09
l. 4 3
0. 3 2
0 .0 9
5 . 19
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l. 52
12 . 2 0
2 . 19
1. 28
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0 . 09
No 3
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0 . 10
0 . 53
0 . 10
0 . 10
0 . 97
0 . 56
3 . 16
5 . 41
50 . 43
No 4
0 . 62
0 . 52
0 . 27
0.35
0.28
0.30
5 . 46
25 . 46
0. 15
0 . 15
1 1. 1 -;
0 . 15
3 . 66
0 . 23
0 . 20
0.33
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0 . 22
0 . 20
1 . 14
1. 04
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0.88
6 . 76
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0 . 23
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0 . 56
0 . 53
4.51
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5 . 00
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1 . 64
No 5
1. 13
1 . 32
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0.62
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19 . 17
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12.05
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THE COMPARISON BETWEEN THE GAMMA LOGS AND THE GRADES IN THE
ESTIMATION OF A URANIUM DEPOSIT
Pierre CHAUVET
Centre de Geostatistique,
ECOLE NATIONALE SUPERIEURE
DES MINES DE PARIS, 35 rue Saint-Honore,
77305 FONTAINEBLEAU, France.
ABSTRACT
This case-study presents two independent estimates of the grades
and the gamma logs for a uranium deposit. The grade-gamma log
scatter diagram for the samples is compared to that obtained for
the kriged block estimates. This example shows the importance of
a quantity which has no physical meaning: the kriged block
average of the gamma logs. Even though the conditions in this
study are exceptionally favourable, it was not possible to
establish a general rule as to when to perform the gamma loggrade transformation.
1. INTRODUCTION
geostatistical
case-study
should the
- How is the 'correlation between the gamma logs and the grades
affected by the size of the support and by kriging?
23
G. Matheron and M. Armstrong (eds.), Geostatistical Case Studies, 23-37.
24
P.CHAUVET
25
3. RECONSTRUCTION OF VALUES
3.1. Problem raised
We can choose to transform the sample gamma log values into grade
values from the outset. The advantage of this lies in that all
along the study, we work on variables (grades) with a clear
physical meaning. But the obvious disadvantage is that, should
the transformation be unsatisfactory, the study must be done all
over again.
3.2. Elementary statistics
Because they have a very strong zero effect and a very long
distribution tail, the histograms of the sampled variables are
difficult to present graphically. Hence we can only summarize
statistics through the respective means and variances of the
1 600 gamma logged samples, the 500 analysed samples, and the 500
grade samples. We obtain:
0 2
o 1m
1 700
9.10
180%
3 500
12.10
100%
2.91
13.00
125%
Grades (500)
P.CHAUVET
26
=c +
1.10 (Log R -
r)
reconstructed values
Figures 3 and 4.
for
the
27
P.CHAUVET
28
The results for the 380 kriged blocks are summed up below:
m
02
Gamma log
3 200
0<2.210
0<46%
Grade
2.56
0<1.2
0<43%
olm
Table 2.
The decrease of the mean value (gamma log 8%, grade 12%) with
respect to the sample statistics given in Table 2 is mainly due
to the edge effect. The change in the size of the variances, due
29
30
P. CHAUVET
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VARI ANCEHISTOORAHHE EXPERIHENTAL
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Figure 7
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oZ
P.A. Dowd
Senior Lecturer and Consultant Geostatistician
Department of Mining and Mineral Engineering,
The University of Leeds, U.K.
and
D.W. Milton
Resident Geologist, Agnew Mining Co. Pty. Ltd.
now Senior Mine Geologist, BP Minerals Australia,
Adelaide
ABSTRACT
40
1.
INTRODUCTION
The Orebody
FIGURE 1
41
42
iii)
3 STOPE
1394 L IFT
LEGENO
E3
SERPENTINITE AfTER
METASEOIMENT
OUNITE WOS}
FIGURE 2
1.2
accumulation
thickness
43
which holds for the data does not necessarily hold for estimated values.
estimated grade
estimated accumulation
estimated thickness
1.3
Data
44
total orebody.
Although the footwall and hangingwall of the orebody are sharply
defined geological contacts, there is a certain amount of internal waste
as shown in the plan sketch in Figure 3.
o
o
Ul.TRAMAFIC ROcKIWASTE'
L:J
MET ASEDIMEN TS
MASSiVE SULPHIOE
FIGURE 3
In such cases accumulations can be based on minimum mineable
widths and on a "carry" principle whereby internal waste is included as
part of the orebody if ore on either side of it is of sufficient grade to
carry the total intersection above a specified cut-off value.
For
example, in Figure 3, depending on how the criterion is applied, either
AB and CD together must be of sufficient grade to carry BC or AB and
CD individually must be of sufficient grade to carry BC; in the latter
case, the better of AB and CD is selected if BC cannot be carried.
An alternative method is to include all total intersections (e.g.
AD) without applying the carry principle, estimate the footwall and
hangingwall locations and then estimate grade inside the estimated
boundaries using equal size, composited core grades and the
corresponding variogram model; this method, described in Dowd and
Scott (1986), and Dowd (1986), allows internal waste to be discriminated.
Hole intersection lengths were converted to equivalent, eastwest borizontal widths using the formula:
C = H*
cjJ )cos y
45
where:
C
H
8
B
cjJ
1.4
Statistics
310
mean
7.30%
median
7.78%
variance
range of values: 0.0% to 11.62%
Table 1
Statistics of nickel grades of orebody intersections
46
is
A histogr am of the east-w est ~oriz.ontal interse ction widths
shown in Figure 5; statist ics are summa rised In Table 2.
40
30
20
'0
NICKEL GRADE
r-
l-
40
tI-
30
r---r-l20
'0
t-
r-
l-
,
THICKNESSE S
t-
CthodJ
ns
FIGUR E 5 : Histog ram of orebod y thickn ess at measu red locatio
47
361
mean
3.90 m
median
3.37 m
variance
7.00 m 2
40
30
I---
20
10
ACCUMULATION
48
310
mean
28.65 m%
median
26.00 m%
variance
326.61 (m%)2
2.
2.1
49
o
o
10
STR1KE
DOWN DIP
PUJNGE
- - MODEL
40
20
.0
70
so
90
100
110
120
DISTANCES Iml
(ml
6.0 (m)2
50
==
1.0 (ml
==
6.0 (m)2
range (a)
==
15 m
Table 5
Parameters of spherical model fitted to thickness
variogram in down dip direction
2.2
==
90.0 (m%)2
240.0 (mOlal
models
fitted
to
the
Model Validation
51
o
o
o
o
o
o
I.
eow
MODEL
100
'0
10
20
30
40
'0
60
70
eo
90
100
liD
120
DISTANCE 1m I
Thickness
52
12.0
o
5
SHOOT1A :Thickness
I
m DATA REMOVED
10.5
9.0
7.5
SPHERICAL MODEL
\I
19
6.0
Co r1.0m2
C1 16.0m 2
23
at
IIS,30m
DIP
4.5
3.
55
3.0
55
STRIKE
15
PLUNGE'
.96
'-.0034
MEAN {ACTUAL-ESTIMATEl 2
3.28
2.87
353
46
ACTUAL
SOow
49
14
MEAN I ACTUAL-ESTIMATEI
0.11
0.96' EST.
1.5
( 0.86,1.06 J
COFlRELAT10N COEFFICIENT
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
10.5
9.0
.11
12.0
ESTIMATED
Figure 9
10.5
9.0
6
7.5
SPHERICAL MODEL
Co 11.0 m 2
16.0m 2
C,
6.0
11
6
0
60'
4.5
130m, 15m
DIP 80 w
38
STRIKE'
15 0 E
MEAN tACTUAL-ESTIMATE)
MEAN (ACTUAL-ESTIMATE)
13
3.0
58
-0.03
MEAN (ACTUAl.-ESTIMATE1 2
0
PLUNGE
1.21
4.98
4.52
NO OF VALUES ESTIMATED
353
26
0
ACTUAL
.50
0.83' EST.
1.5
.6a . 96
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
.53
10.5
ESTIMATED
53
Accumulations
in
many
ways
54
70
9 _ N9 OF VALUES
12
60
0 - AVERAGE VALUES
27
50
SPHERICAl. MODEL
Co 90 {m%)2
51
"
40
240(mDk)2
a, '15m,30m
84
15'
STRIKE
30
73
20
54
PLUNGE
MEAN I ACTUAL-ESTIMATE I
16.10
1-0.027
MEAN (4CTUAL-ESTIMATEI 2
177.19
169 .86
"306
00
0 .71
0 .961 EST
10
(0.83, 1.08)
CORRELAlION COEFFICIENT
20
10
30
40
50
60
0 .65
80
70
ESTIMATEO
Figure 11
70
9 _ N9 OF VALUES
0 - AVER AGE VALUES
60
9
26
50
SPHERICAL MODEL
Co
c,
55
40
3,
90 (m%)2
240 (m%)2
lsm,30m
OIP'SOOW
30
Il
90
39
20
STRIKE
15'
PLUNGE
MEAN I ACTUAL-ESTIMATE I
MEAN (ACTUAL-ESTIMATE)
'254.13
306
7.30
-0.14
262.05
14.01
0.15
EST.
10
( .58 . . 93)
COARELATION COEFFICIENT
10
Figure 12
20
30
ESTIMATED
40
50
60
45
70
55
n
I
--------------------~~ Nl
-
r---
r--
r---
I
I
I-----
2
s
---zs
a
N2
+000605*)
of the
within
can be
of the
56
where:
N1 and NZ are equal to the number of grid rectangle sides around
the perimeter of the mineralised surface parallel to directions 1
and Z respectively with NZ > NH only grid rectangles which
contain an intersection are counted, i.e. only those which make
up the mineralised surface
n is the total number of intersections
0
+ 1.96 x
=
=
=
33
3
99
57
and
0
2
s
1
3
ggz
[6 + 0.0605
:::
33
x - 3-
0.002292
The relative
reserves is given by:
the
total tonnage of
o 2
s
-Zs
2As no data were available for specific gravity calculations the
term
-Jz can
mean
58
.4
.
----
H---_
I
L
'-----_J
Figure 15
H/a
59
10
15 = 0.67
where Si is the surface area of grid rectangle i. As the surface areas are
all equal this reduces to:
n s 2 0h2
2 2
n s
or
3.3
q
--z-
a
s
-Z- + -Z +
a
s
ad
60
average accumulation.
manner to
O~
The value of
a is obtained in an identical
3.4
a
9 = 11
The relative estimation variance of the grade is given by:
0
+~
9
where r is the correlation coefficient
accumulation; in this case r = 0.8285.
3.5
between
thickness
and
Results
DEPOSIT
ESTIMA TION OF A SECTION OF THE PERSEV ERANCE NICKEL
61
46
is
A histogr am of the east-w est horizo ntal interse ction widths
shown in Figure 5; statist ics are summa rised in Table 2.
40
30
20
10
NICKEL GRADE
,.
40
l-
,.
f-
I30
r--20
10
I-
l-
THICKNESSE S
f-
D-h-n~
ns
FIGUR E 5 : Histog ram of orebod y thickn ess at measu red locatio
62
8100m 2
3.95m
133,000 t
27.40m%
9,250 t
6.95%
Table 8
Ore Reserves estimates for Study Area: Shoot 1A
The errors quoted in Table 8 indicate that the average grade,
total tonnage and average width of the orebody can be determined with a
very acceptable accuracy. Further sampling on any reasonable scale
would not significantly reduce these errors (assuming of course that the
addi tional data did not alter the geological and geostatistical
interpretation of the orebody).
63
4.1
Ore tonnes
Grade
Metal tonnes
Production Geostatistics
Figures
Estimates
% Ditt.
123,000 t
7,59%
9,340 t
+8.1%
-8.4%
-1.0%
133,000 t
6.95%
9,250 t
Relative
Confidence
Limits on
Estimates
+ 4.7%
+
2.2%
+ 4.6%
Table 9
Comparison of Production Figures and Geostatistics Estimates,
using production figures as the standard
The di fference in the ore tonnage figures can be explained
mostly by:
more accurate delineation of internal waste by the digitised
orebody outline
use of an average specific gravity for the geostatistics estimates
and local speci fic gravities for the production figures.
64
5.
PLANNING ESTIMATES
~ ....;O;~~----:- intersections
mid points of
orebody
spec if ied gr id
in northing (y) ~
direction
Figure 17
ESTIMATED GRADE
Figure 18
65
66
I
N
:-
~,
L~ i
. . ' I ,\--;--!
'e,
i:
/:
\
i
7
,'----*---+;
Figure 19
6.0
67
CONCLUSIONS
7.0
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
8.0
REFERENCES
Dowd, P .A. (1986) - "Geometrical and Geological Controls in
Geostatistical Estimation and Orebody Modelling"
19th
APCOM.
Pensylvannia State University, April 1986.
Pub.
A.I.M.E. pp.81-94.
Dowd, P.A. and Scott, I.R. (1986) - "Geostatistics in the
Stratigraphic Orebodies at Mt. Isa" - Proceedings of the 13th
Commonwealth Mining and Metallurgical Congress, Singapore,
May 1986, Vol. 1 - Geology. pp 27-36.
Pub. Australasian
Insti tute of Mining and Metallurgy, Melbourne, Australia.
MULTIPURPOSE
SARDINIA
GEOSTATISTICAL
MODELLING
OF
A BAUXITE OREBODY IN
Sardinia, Italy
ABSTRACT
Geostatistics was used to model the Olmedo bauxite deposit in
Sardinia, and to calculate the characterized in-situ reserves and
the mineable reserves. Care was taken to incorporate and model the
available geological information including the karsism.
1. INTRODUCTION
It is well known that the reliability of the technical and
economic components of a design depends to a great extent on the
reliability of both the basic data and the hypotheses adopted. In
the special case of a m~n~ng project, all design choices and
subsequent estimates of foreseeable technical and economic results
are based on the hypotheses formulated regarding the characteristics of the orebody.
Basically, it is a question of building a spatial-behaviour model
for each characteristic of the orebody (e.g. thicknesses, grades,
lithologies, mechanical characteristics, etc.) that may have an
appreciable effect on the design choices and/or on the future
economic results. It is, therefore, clear that the representativity of the models, i.e. their faithfulness in describing the
real behaviour of the studied orebody, depends essentially on:
- the quantity and the quality of the available data and/or
information;
- the unbiasedness and adequacy of the information-processing
procedures adopted for building the models themselves.
69
70
G. CAPELLO ET AL.
This article describes and discusses the data, the procedures and
the models that were adopted for the study of the bauxite orebody
at Olmedo in Sardinia (Italy). The first concrete results of this
phase of work was an evaluation of in situ reserves and a
technical zoning of the orebody.
2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON THE NURRA BAUXITE BASIN
Figure
shows that Olmedo orebody covers a small sector of the
Nurra area of northwestern Sardinia where there is a bauxite
formation. The pos1t10n of the latter on the stratigraphic
column, i.e. between the lower and the upper cretaceous eras, is
the most important guide for prospection work.
71
72
G. CAPELLO ET AL.
OliATERNARY
MIOCENE
OLI GO-MIOCENE
uPPER SANTONIAN
SANTONIAN
UPPER CONIACIAN
FORM ,~
BARREMIAN
UPPER VALANGINIAN
LO~ER VALANGIN I AN
TI ON
JURESE
Mining
Figure 1.
Ihllenu
S.p.A.
73
PEOROSEDOU
~HANGING
~BAUXITF.
WALL OF THE
FORMATION
~BAUXIIE OUICRAPS
~FOOTWALL
~BAUXITE
Mlnln
Figure 3.
OF THE
FORMATION
It.llene
S.p.A.
G. CAPELLO ET AL.
74
TABLE 1.
Statistical parameters, lithotype thicknesses.
Minimum
(m)
Maximum
(m)
Average
(m)
Conglomeratic bauxite
0.00
2.26
0.16
Compact bauxite
0.00
4.49
1.35
Clayey bauxite
0.00
3.07
0.29
Lithotypes
TABLE 2.
Average statistical parameters.
Thickness
(m)
Si0 2 %
Whole orebody
1.80
11. 71
59.42
Conglomeratic bauxite
0.16
19.59
52.93
Compact bauxite
1.35
9.48
63.90
Clayey bauxite
0.29
17.65
42.35
A1 2 0 3 %
75
G. CAPELLO ET AL.
76
130 3
109 0
7 0
14 3
SF
CN
AF
FA TR TOTAL
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
138
109
7
22
CD D
41
7
6
0
27
2
36
0
49
0
54
0
0
0
5
0
218
9
144
155
5
5
28
22
0
0
48
8
0
0
2
2
5
5
232
197
7
1
29
1
36
0
49
0
54
0
2 5
0 0
333
1
30
36
49
54
356
Not-valid quality
Analyzed
Valid layer width
Valid formation width
Total
C
D
CD
SF =
CN =
AF =
FA =
TR
171
77
78
G. CAPELLO ET AL
terized by a trend. This made it possible to recognize a secondorder trend in the behaviour of the hanging wall of the bauxite
formation and to determine the parameters required to interpolate
it by means of point, non-stationary IRF-k on a 25m grid. The
elevation of orebody hanging wall has a polynomial covariance
model.
Besides verifying the qualitative and, above all, the quantitative suitability of the hypotheses adopted, the construction of
the base model made it possible to estimate a studied variable
even for those zones where a low density of informatiop and the
very subdivision of the orebody i,.'~ homogeneous zones had
reduced the available data to insufficient levels for further
variographic structural analysis and the corresponding estimation. For this, a phenomenology was assumed, consisting of two
distinct tectonic events, namely folding and disjoining. In this
sense, the preliminary base model that had been obtained using
kriged values as interpolators was assumed to represent the
hanging wall of the bauxite formation after the first phase. The
displacements were then interpreted and defined through statistical analysis of the deviations, for the known points, between
the values of the base model and the experimental values. Their
subsequent application to the above-mentioned model allowed us to
define the final model of the behaviour of the hanging wall of
the bauxite formation.
5. LITHOSTRATIGRAPHIC MODEL OF THE BAUXITE LAYER
In the Olmedo area, the average thickness of the bauxite
formation is 2.6 m (Figure 4), and variations in thickness along
the length of the deposit can be considered to be regular. The
zones of maximum thickness (up to about 5 m) are lined up fairly
regularly along the strike which may correspond to early folding
of the footwall formation. The thickness varies considerably
because of the presence of karst cavities filled with bauxite.
The clay footwall, which has an average thickness of about 4 em,
is found in the zones of oriented accumulation which are concentrated in the northern and western sectors of the study area. It
is practically absent in the zones with a limestone footwall
belonging to the Upper Valanginian era (Figure 5).
The experimental variograms for thickness were calculated in the
plane of the deposit, from the drillhole data. The directional
semi-variograms were calculated. For all cases, the spherical
models were fitted. The local estimates of the thickness were
obtained by stationary kriging, with drillhole selection using a
dynamic estimating envelope. The form and extension of this
envelope depends on the local geometry of the sampling data.
79
----
c
o
- g<>
---,-_ _
OD~"
000 "
009[:
OO t t
DOlt
0901:
OOBt
OiJt~
OO ~ ,
OOll.
J'[.IO ~
80
G.CAPELLO ETAL.
81
The widths of both the bauxite layer and the clay footwall were
determined using data from all drillholes, including those for
which there was no information on bauxite grades and oretypes.
This was done in order to reduce the estimation error with regard
to the footwall clays which are a strongly penalizing characteristic
for future mining operations. Where the density of
available information was considered to be insufficient, block
models of the stratigraphic thickness of the bauxite formation
were constructed using geostatistical procedures integrated with
inverse distance weighting.
Model
estimates of formation and stratum thicknesses were
computed independently by kriging. The model of footwall-clay
thickness was computed on the basis of the difference between the
preceding two models, maintaining stratigraphic consistency.
The mineralogical composition of the Nurra bauxites is characterized essentially by the presence of aluminium of the monohydrate
type in the form of bohemite.
On
marly
and
marly-limestone footwalls belonging to the
Purbeckian facies, which represents two-thirds of the total study
area, the bauxite formation presents the following characteristics from bottom to top :
- 10-150 em of bauxite clays: this facies corresponds to a
very early stage of the bauxitization process;
- 10-80 em
of clayey bauxite: the transition from the
preceding facies is gradual even though it occurs in the
space of a few centimeters; the Si0 2 grades vary from 12 to
15%;
- 50-400 cm of compact bauxite, with a fine oolitic-pisolitic
fabric; the Si0 2 grades vary from 1 to 12%.
- 0-50
cm of pseudo-conglomeratic bauxite derived from
re-elaboration of the underlying facies; the Si0 2 grade
varies from 8 to 20\.
6. MODEL OF HANGING WALL KARSISM
Being able to forecast the probability of karstic phenemona of a
certain intensity and of a certain extension in a given area has
a direct influence on the criteria to be adopted in scheduling
the drifting and/or m1n1ng works as well as in estimating the
inaccessible fractions of area and hence the non-recoverable
reserves. A tapa-probabilistic model was developed for this.
Each point of the bauxite formation was classified according to
the probability of more or less intense hanging wall karsism.
The data used to construct the model for forecasting the presence
of hanging-wall karsism are the result of interpretative readings
G. CAPELLO ET AL.
82
CODE
0.0
Weak
0.4
Average
0.7
Strong (high)
1.0
TABLE 4.
Reliability Classes
RELIABILITY CLASSES
Low
RATIO OF n/R
0
- 0.25
Average
0.25 - 0.75
High
0.75 - 1.00
83
..
52
~
:c
:r:
:=>
:r:
If'
(J)
n::
0;(
""
=<
=<
-'
_J
<Il
---'
LL
n::
:r:
CJ
---'
:r:
~ t8~H~:~
:=>
u,
:r:
I
'":r:
<.:.
'"'"
...,0
'"
---'
'-'
.
..
rn (Il BI
0
0
0
on
~
'"
0
:1
'"
0
"''"...,
0
...,0
0
'"
~
'"
N
H
;::J
N
N
OM
0
0
0
'"
...,0
"-
on
0
'"
N
0
0
0
on
0'
0
'"
0
"''"
000.
OOS'\:
ooer
OSLG
OOSl
OSlG
OOOl
(l)
II>
OSlo
'-D
b()
84
G. CAPELLO ET AL.
r.r
I ~
(f'
cr'
uJ
-'
r.n
r.r
lL
lL
<.0
uJ
.J
"-
lL
'"
85
>-
..,
""0
-'
'"
e
"')
'"
::>
L-
""a '"
a
N
~ ~lI1D.
[;
1- ;
~:
..,
0
0
..,
II'
VI
n
'"
0
0
..,0
0
'"
'"
0
0
'"'"
0
'"'"
'"
0
0
0
'"
.,..0
r-OJ
I-<
;:l
0()
'rl
~
0
0
N
'"
V)
'"
Vl
0
0
.....
Vl
'"
a
a
'"
V)
a
a
a
~
a
a
a
'"
Vl
250
500
750
Figure 8.
2500
,-2150
JOOO
J250
110 :%
J500
J750
'
4000
.r
4250
4~00
--I
1..10 :%
1..1.0 X
110 /.
7.0 :%
7.0 :%
3.0 :%
00 :%
..1.0 :%
--,--...----T -
II
~
~
~
FDR S ILI CA
GRADfS CLASSES
LEGE ND
1/ 5U
>r
tTl
-I
r
r
tTl
.."
>-
CJ
00
0<
,..,
'l."
,h
..
~,v.
'.j''- . . . . .
I',;
....
~/..
'{:"l!l~'("
250
500
750
..
1,,,,
,'.
<.
, r.~ r'{-:;~
/"'",::/" :;
1000
1 2~~
:500
1750
2000
2500
2750
......
JOOO
~F
' ,.
J2S0
.;,~
. .nllrl~.11
Figure 9.
2250
'f;%:~?~ ? ~W.?;eW
ra;;af.!.f!j~~e3Jf':>;T'f,i';;,~H,~;:,~~!",:r:}~'
. "~rAW,,,
: ~ ~ .{'-;1?3-!;'U~,~.i~)?~~'!I:~~;~~";~S'/..
~~
~~~~ fr.. ~, ,~
~
.!:~>.;'
'
3500
t'LLl
C77J
L EGf ND
i OOO
62.0 Z
62 . 0
58.0 %
~ 250
4500
> 66.0 l
66 . 0;1,
5 4. 0 %
~
'58.0 %
00;1,~
'54 . 0;1,
FOR AL UN I N A
GRADES CLASSES
v.a
Ijj
J7S0
IIIII ~~~~
'~-~ m'" ~ 'l":~<m' ~t~:q{s
~~. Y.~ ~~0~~. ~:"./{'/''7~;;r:~:r-)~(~'{~
<,.'"""
....
Yo'
~imilll~~~~~i~atJ:~~~~:}'~~~l;~~
: J;!k:.Di;~~; ~~;{~~r;i:~~~~1~~~~@5f~~~~~~:
Bl
:-: "
~
~ ;" ~ ~
~
~ ~ ~
?~, ~~ "','I'V: :,.t. ~
. 750
00
-.]
;;
~
~
Z
C/l
0
tJ
~ _
~~~I<I~:~I'~;'~~
I ll1,;I
<;v:II;.I~,1LIIh
Pfj
~ _
..-:
o"TI
/_10/
tJ
tTl
r
~ -~
~
3::
88
G. CAPELLO ET AL.
11 .8
59.6
Thickness
(m)
Si0 2
Al 20 3
Reserves
(Mt)
20
2.14
8.7
62.7
24.4
14
1. 99
7.5
63.9
20.1
12
1. 88
6.9
64.7
17 .2
10
1.65
6.5
64.6
15. 1
('o)
('o)
'"
89
...o
90
G. CAPELLO ET AL.
24.4
Mtonnes
- Average thickness
2.4
8.7
- Average grade 1n A1 20 3
62.7
mining
20.0
strategy
determined
the
Mtonnes
- average thickness
2.14
9.0
- average grade 1n A1 2 0 3
62.0
"
91
TABLE 6.
Mineable reserves.
Reserves
Ktonn
Si0 2
Al 2 0 3
593.
7.4
65.9
1. 85
12.5
720.
6.9
64.1
1. 81
15.5
829.
10.8
55.9
2.44
13.3
1188.
8.5
-8.5
64.7
-62.6
2.47
18.7
2.16
60
63.6
2.17
194.3
Thickness
m
Surface
ha
ZONE 1
TOTAL ( 1 )
3330.
ZONE 2
9674.
TOTAL ( 1+2)
ZONE 3
TOTAL
8.2
--
--
13004.
8.3
63.3
2.17
254.3
7123.
9.4
-8.7
61.8
-62.8
2.1
167.5
2.14
421.8
20127.
REFERENCES
BRUNO R., GUARASCIO M., RASPA G., 1979, "Preliminary geostatistical analysis of the Sotiros deposit", Note GEOSTAT N' 21.
DUBRULE 0., 1981, "Krigeage et Splines en Cartographie Automatique" (Kriging and splines in computer-aided mapping), These
de Docteur-Ingenieur, ENSMP, Paris.
GUARASCIO
M.,
1974, Valutazione dei giacimenti minerari:
l'approcio geostatistico" (The evaluation of orebodies: the
geostatistical approach), Industria Mineraria.
GUARASCIO M., 1975, "Improving the uranium deposits estimations
(The Novazza case)", Advanced geostatistics in the mining
industry, Proceedings NATO ASI, "GEOSTAT 75", Rome, Italy.
JOURNEL A., 1977, Geostatistique Miniere (Mining geostatistics),
Vol.
and 2, Centre de Geostatistique, ENSMP, Fontainebleau,
France.
92
G. CAPELLO ET AL.
Laurent Moinard
Schlumberger Well Services
ABSTRACT
Maps constructed from seismic data represent subsurface structures in terms of two-way
transit time. Wireline logs provide depth of formation tops at well locations. The best
representation of a subsurface horizon should combine both measurements. Kriging is an
ideal tool for merging seismic and log data.
This case history describes the mapping of a reef in north Texas. Seismic data include
three common depth point (COP) lines and a large number of single-fold records. Wireline
logs, including a vertical seismic profile (VSP), are available in II wells .
The first step is the geostatistical analysis of seismic data. The empirical semivariogram
is drawn from several hundred shot points, and a theoretical model is fitted. This
semivariogram is used to construct a time grid.
In the second step, wireline logs are correlated to the seismic sections with the help of
the VSP data. A time-depth relationship is established and applied to the time grid to yield
a "drift" for the kriging of the depth data. The final output is a depth grid used to generate
a contour map.
INTRODUCTION
Geologic structures are often mapped from well log data available in very few wells. When
this is done by hand, the geologist usually supplements the log data with his a-priori knowledge
(or prejudices) of the formation under study.
Computer-generated structure maps based on few well data are fraught with problems .
First, large areas are'not covered by any data point. This leads to uncertainty in the interpolated values, and the shape of the interpolated structure depends heavily on the location
93
G, Matheron and M. Armstrong (eds.), Geostatistical Case Studies, 93-103,
Oll/plllly,
L. MOl NARD
94
of the data points. Second, the interpolation method is arbitrarily selected. It does not reflect
the degree of continuity of the parameter interpolated or the density of data points in a
given area.
Unlike well log data, seismic data often provide a good areal coverage of the area under
study. However, seismic sections also suffer from limitations. First, the vertical axis of a
seismic section is scaled in time, not depth. Second, the vertical resolution of seismic
measurements is much worse than that of well logs, and it is sometimes difficult to match
seismic reflectors and geologic boundaries without ambiguity.
This paper shows how depth data from a small number of well logs and time data from
seismic sections can be combined to obtain a detailed structure map. We will assume that
the reader is familiar with the theory of geostatistics. After reviewing the log al}d seismic
data we will show how they were combined to determine the geometry of a reef in north Texas.
GEOPHYSICAL DATA
The area of study is located in Throckmorton County, Texas. The formations of interest
are the Caddo and Mississippi limestones, which are hydrocarbon-producing formations
at depths of 4,000 and 4,600 feet, respectively. The Caddo lime is about 400 feet thick. It
is overlain by the Smithwick shale, which is also several hundred feet thick. The SmithwickCaddo boundary is an excellent seismic reflector that can be identified easily throughout
the area.
The buildup of reefs on the Mississippi lime creates structural traps in both formations.
The purpose of the study was therefore to provide an accurate structure map of the top
of the Caddo limestone to delineate the extent of one reef.
The area covered by the study is shown in figure I. It covers about 10,000 feet in the
east-west direction and 8,000 feet in the north-south direction. Locations of data points are
shown on the figure. Eleven wells, labeled 1 through II, are shown as dots. The diamonds
correspond to three six-fold COP seismic lines, labeled A, B, and C. The crosses are singlefold or "conventional" seismic records.
NOrlh
"
.? .
,8
9
'.
II
10'
'.
95
Wireline Logs
The most accurate data available in the area are well logs. Logs are geophysical
measurements performed with instruments lowered in the wellbore at the end of a wireline.
Rock parameters measured in wells 1 through 8 include:
96
L. MOINARD
Wells 9, 10, and 11 are older and have only resistivity and spontaneous potential logs.
This limited logging suite does not lend itself to detailed volumetric analysis, but formation
tops can still be picked accurately.
Log measurements have a good vertical resolution and can be used for accurate formation evaluation. Their main limitation is that their depth of investigation extends, at most,
only a few feet away from the wellbore.
Seismic Data
Three types of seismic data were available in the field: over 100 single-fold records, three
CDP lines, and one VSP in well 2.
Single-Fold Records
The crosses on figure 1 correspond to single-fold seismic records. For each record, a seismic
source is detonated at the location indicated on the map. Geophones deployed a short distance
away from the shot location record the amplitude of the seismic waves reflected by subsurface formation boundaries. Since only one shot is recorded for any subsurface reflection
point, no processing is done, and reflectors are picked from the analog records. This is acceptable because the reflector being mapped is very strong and continuous throughout the
area. The method is simple, and with a spacing of 800 to 1,000 feet between shot points
it can provide good areal .coverage at low cost.
Common Depth Point Records
The diamonds correspond to a more sophisticated seismic survey. An array of geophones
is depleyed along a long straight line. The distance between geophone groups is fairly short
(220 feet). A seismic source is successively detonated at each location and the amplitude
97
of reflected waves is recorded each time by all geophones. The records can then be sorted
and combined in such a manner that several records correspond to the same subsurface reflection point, but different source-geophones spacings (hence the name common depth point,
or COP).
Stacking the common depth point records improves signal-to-noise ratio and eliminates
near-surface multiple reflections. The seismic lines used in this study are six-fold COP. This
means that each trace was obtained by combining six different source-receiver offsets. Line
B is shown on figure 3. The horizontal axis is distance along the line. Shot point numbers
are referenced on the top. The vertical axis is two-way time, or the time it takes a seismic
wave to go down to a reflector and bounce back up to the sl,!rface. For each trace, the horizontal displacement is the amplitude of the geophone vibration. Positive amplitudes are shaded
in black to make correlation from trace to trace easier.
The dark bands of high amplitude indicate strong seismic reflectors; that is, boundaries
between formations of high acoustic impedance contrast. The seismic lines provide a continuous lateral coverage of the formation tops, but two limitations are obvious:
The vertical axis is time, not depth;
The frequency of the seismic signal is low (less than 100 Hz). The wavelength at the
depth of interest is over 100 feet and the vertical resolution is poor.
98
L MOINARD
99
Two-way times to the top of the Caddo limestone were picked on all traces of the CPO
lines and on the single-fold records.
GEOSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC DATA
The first step of the study was the geostatistical analysis of the seismic data. A digital
data file was built, containing for each shot location the coordinates x and y and the twoway time to the Caddo limestone, read from the seismic sections and the single-fold records.
The empirical semivariogram of the time residuals was computed from 238 data points
(28,203 pairs). The regional drift used for this analysis is a plane fitted through the data
points by least squares. This semivariogram is shown on figure 5, where the horizontal axis
is distance in feet and the vertical axis is the half mean square difference in square seconds.
The pairs are grouped according to the distance between points. The width of the first distance
class is 125 feet; the width for all others is 250 feet. In addition to distance, the pairs are
also subdivided into four orientation classes: E-W, NE-SW, N-S, NW-SE. Five curves are
shown. Each of the dashed lines corresponds to one orientation, and the solid line is the
mean semivariogram, where all orientations are combined.
~; .-----------------------,
,""."
DIR!:C11
"[J'I>.~
... - I: 50!
- NC-Slol
" ~ .N-S
~ - .NW 5[
_ _ _ _~_ __
:l
( ...
~
~
~
_
~~~
,
Fig. 5 -Directional semivariograms of time residuals
L. MOINARD
100
0r
~; .-----------------------~
.
,;
"'~~
~
.I
The dotted line is the analytical model fitted on the empirical data. It uses the following
parameters:
Nugget
Range:
Sill: 28
Shape:
The nugget effect is unusually small. This is a consequence of the smooth shape of the
reflector as shown on figure 3. The formation is very continuous, and there are no faults
in the area of interest. The range - 2,800 feet - is consistent with the size of structures
encollntered in that area. The "spherical" shape of the semivariogram is a frequent occurrence with seismic data.
101
Using the time data shown on figure 1, the semivariogram described above, and a linear
drift, time data were interpolated at each node of a regular grid covering the area of interest. The grid mesh size was 200 feet in each direction. A contour map drawn from this
grid is shown on figure 7. The contour interval is 2 milliseconds.
The main structure is located in the center of the map. It is oriented roughly northeastsouthwest, as was inferred from the analysis of the directional semivariograms. A second
structure is visible to the southeast, about 5,000 feet away. This confirms what was inferred
from the periodicity of the northwest-southeast directional semivariogram.
In addition to the grid nodes, time was interpolated at the locations of wells which did
not have borehole time measurements. This interpolation will be used in the next phase,
where time is converted to depth.
STRUCTURE MAP
The subsea depth of the Caddo lime is known at 11 points only (the well locations). With
11 points, there are too few pairs (55) to compute an empirical semivariogram from the
data. Without external information, an interpolation method to compute a grid would have
to be chosen arbitrarily. Figure 8 is a contour map drawn from these 11 points, using a
spline interpolation routine. It shows a single massive structure in the right half of the area
studies.
102
L. MOINARD
Since the seismic data offer a better areal coverage than the well data, one would like
to use these data to help the interpolation of formation tops. To link these two data sets,
we need some correlation between time and depth.
In all wells, in addition to depth, we have a measure of the two-way time from the seismic
reference datum (SRD) to the Caddo top. This time was either measured directly in the
borehole with VSP or "check shots" or interpolated from nearby seismic shotpoints as shown
above.
In universal kriging, the drift is taken into account by introducing n drift functions, which
are functions of the x and y coordinates. These are usually monomials, of degree 0, 1, and
2; i.e., xo, xl, yl, x 2, xy, and y2. In matrix form, this amounts to adding n lines and columns to the matrix of covariances and n dimensions to the vector of the kriging weights.
Since time is now known at all grid nodes and at the locations of the data points, functions of time can be used for drift, instead of functions of x and y. The method has been
incorporated in the "BLUPACK" program and is virtually transparent to the user.
Several conceptual problems are associated with the method. First, the variance of the
time estimation error at the grid nodes is assumed equal to zero. From a practical standpoint, this can be ignored. The seismic data have a much denser areal coverage than the
well data; so, at any point, the time variance is usually much smaller than the variance of
the depth estimation error and can be safely assumed to be negligible.
The most serious difficulty is obtaining the variogram of depth residuals. No serious
statistical inference can be drawn from 11 points: one can hardly compute a valid mean,
let alone a variance. Besides, times were not measured but interpolated to most well locations, thereby making the time-depth relationship weaker.
For lack of a better model, we assumed a depth semivariogram similar to the time
semivariogram, which is well defined: "spherical" shape and 2,800-foot range. The nugget
effect was set to zero to force the contours to honor the data points. The value of the sill
is the only weak point. It was set equal to the variance of the 11 depth residuals and is therefore
probably pessimistic. This last number controls the variance of the estimation error; consequently, we will not be able to rely too heavily on the absolute value of the computed estimation error, but relative values between grid points should still be usable.
The depth grid was computed using this semivariogram and a linear function of time for
the drift.
The contour map drawn from the depth grid is shown on figure 9. It differs greatly from
the map computed from depth data only. The shape now follows that of the time map,
since the drift is a linear function of time. In the vicinity of the well locations, however,
it departs from the time map and matches measured depths of those locations.
One of the conditions of the kriging estimator is to minimize the variance of the estimation error. This variance is therefore computed at each grid point. Figure 10 is a contour
map of the standard deviation of the depth estimation error. It provides a good measurement of the uncertainty of the depth computation. The standard deviation is between 10
and 20 feet for most of the area of interest except near the wells. These values seem high,
103
but as mentioned above, they are controlled by an ill-defined parameter: the variance of
the depth residuals. However, finding a formation top to feet too high or too low in a new
well is an everyday occurrence in the oil patch, and these numbers may well be valid after all.
CONCLUSIONS
The universal kriging interpolation method can be used to generate an accurate contour
map using both seismic data and wireline log data when only a few wells have been drilled.
It makes best use of the wide areal coverage of seismIc measurements and the good depth
resolution provided by wireline logs, especially when time and depth are accurately correlated
by a vertical seismic profile. In addition to the case reviewed here, this method has been
applied successfully to several other structures from Michigan to south Texas.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author thanks Tom Roach III of Ashtola Oil Co., who agreed to release these data
for publication; ,Lennart Tier, who interpreted the seismic data; Rose Barnstead, who processed the VSP data; and Pierre Delfiner, who developed the external drift method described in the paper and provided timely advice and recommendations while this study was carried out.
REFERENCES
ABSTRACT
This paper shows how the external drift method can be used to
combine data from seismic campaigns, which are numerous but
inaccurate, with that from a small number of wells, to give more
accurate contour maps and also to model faults. The successive
improvements
made in the maps as more information became
available
will
be
stressed,
together with the economic
consequences of this.
1. INTRODUCTION
Since 1968 the French Gas Company (Gaz de France) has been
storing natural gas in an anticlinal structure at Contres-Chemery
which is situated 30 km south of Blois (in the Loire Valley). The
surface area ~s about 30 km2, and the top of the structure is
80 m above the level of the closure. Its shape is rather
complicated; in particular it has two domes. At the western end,
it is limited by a vertical fault with a throw of up to 40 m.
The gas is stored inside the upper Triassic sandstone which lies
1100 m below the surface. The main reservoir R2 is 40 m in
thickness and is overlain by 10 to 12 m of variegated clay.
Several interbedded sandstones (R1) in which gas is not stored,
are followed by thick series containing clays, dolomites and
limestones at the base of the Jurassic sequence.
At
~n
the end of 1981, the Chemery reservoir which was the largest
France, was thought to have a capacity of 4.5 billion m3 .
105
106
in
points
(2) 76 wells where the depth to the top of the reservoir had been
measured,
(3) 3 extra wells which had been drilled
create the hydraulic barrier, (see Figure
1)
107
to
clarify
......
...
. ..
.
.... ....._-'.........
...... ..
Figure 1.
!O8
.....
-
...
-~
..
..; .. ..........
-:
-,... ..
.....
--.. -- ..
Figure 2. The first seismic campalgn. Only one fault was found .
-...
.....
.. :t.
109
647 ms
845 ms
1332 ms 2
36.5 ms
715.3 ms
=1
110
Figure 4.
965 m
1095 m
Variance
Standard Deviation
Mean Value
III
1080 m2
32.8 m
1011 m
the
112
Figure 5 presents the kriged contour map obtained using just the
well data in a pseudo-unique neighbourhood (Renard and Yancey,
1984), while Figure 6 presents the kriged contour map obtained
using the well data in a unique neighbourhood with the original
seismic information as external drift. The fault was taken into
account by means of the seismic drift.
Up till this point we have used cross validation to test the
quality of a model because if using the seismic information in
the form of an external drift improves the quality of the fit
when it is re-estimated, then the additional information is
worthwhile. The criterion used to judge whether the fit was
better was the mean square error. This choice can be criticized
since it is not robust against outliers. However a very large
value means a very poor fit in the neighbourhood around that
particular point, and if the point happens to lie on the
boundary, the closure of the reservoir is not well known. So it
is important to note the spatial location of the errors too.
In our case the problem of accurately defining the closure of the
reservoir in the northwest sector is particularly important. So
we will have a closer look at the errors in this area. To
simplify the discussion, we have numbered the points from 1
through to 10. Points 2, 4 and 5 are the new wells.
Although Figure
shows the two faults, only the NS fault has
been used in calculations up to this point. The EW fault was
first introduced together with the data from the second seismic
campaign. We now present this step.
4.4. Second Seismic Campaign
Minimum value
Maximum value
Variance
Standard deviation
Mean value
635 ms
705 ms
206 ms 2
14.3 ms
677 ms
The second seismic campaign was carried out to clarify the shape
of the reservoir in the northwest zone (Figure 7). Secondly if we
compare this figure with Figure 4, we see that the values
obtained from the second campaign are lower than for the
preceding one. Since these new values are considered to be more
reliable than the earlier ones where the second fault was not
even apparent, a new model of the whole seismic is required.
This model should have the same shape as the second
campaign in the northwest zone, but should be like the
modeL elsewhere. This type of problem is a typical case
to use the external drift method. However because much of
seismic
initial
of when
the map
113
Figure 5. The kriged contour map obtained using the data from 76
wells in a pseudo-unique neighbourhood (a 6 point neighbourhood).
Figure 6. The kriged contour map obtained using the data from 76
wells with the seismic information as the external drift (unique
neighbourhood)
:
...
114
Figure 7.
Figure 8.
115
must be obtained by extrapolating, we should use the pseudounique neighbourhood. But in the current version of BLUEPACK, the
external drift option cannot be used with the pseudo-unique
neighbourhood. This will be rectified in the forthcoming version.
So we had to krige the data from the second campaign using the
first seismic information as the external drift in several steps.
Although the results are reasonably good (Figure 8), they could
still be improved.
4.5. Final Step
The three estimates of the northwest zone can now be compared.
These were obtained respectively using:
- the only 79 wells plus the two faults
- the 79 wells with the first seismic data as the external drift
i.e. with only one fault, (Figure 9),
- the 79 wells with the new model obtained the second seismic
campaign shown in Figure 8 as the external drift (Figure 10).
The differences between the estimates and the actual values at
the ten wells shown on Figure 1 were calculated. The corresponding standard deviations were 14.7 m, 12.8 m and 7.5 m. Since
our objective is to determine the closure it is interesting to
look at some of the wells (Nos 2, 3, 4 and 5) more closely. These
are presented in Table 1.
TABLE 1.
Differences between 3 kriged values and the actual values.
First
Difference
Second
Difference
Third
Difference
- 7.0 m
- 5.9 m
- 8.1 m
8.7 m
9.0 m
4.9 m
- 15.0 m
- 13.0 m
- 6.8 m
3.8 m
- 4.0 m
3.3 m
Well No
116
Figure 9. Kriged contour map obtained using data from all wells,
with the first seismic campaign as the external drift.
Figure 10.
Kriged contour map obtained using data from all 79 wells,
with the combined seismic map (Fig. 8) as the external drift.
117
Figure 11. Same contour map as for Figure 10, except for:
- shading at 45, zones where the kriging standard
deviation is between 10m and 15m,
- vertical
shading,
where
the kriging standard
deviation exceeds 15m.
5. CONCLUSION
The interpretation of the structure that was made at the end of
1981 (Figure 6) shows the closure at the western edge at the
level of approximately 1055 m below sea level. This has been
criticized . The three wells drilled later on in order to inject
water and to control this, showed that the levels in this area
were from about 5 m to 18 m lower than had been expected; so it
was decided not to set up the hydraulic barrier as had been
planned earlier.
The contour map made at this time (Figure 9)
shows that the levels in the west where gas could escape are more
likely to be about 1065 m below sea level, but there is no way of
being certain about this.
Since a slight change in the level here would significantly
change the capacity of the reservoir, an additional seismic
campaigm was undertaken in this area in 1982. (Figure 3). This
showed that the northern edge of the Chemery reservoir is cut off
by a fault and on the southern side of this, the ground has
subsided . This suggests that the level of the closure is probably
118
between 1067 and 1070 m below sea level (Figure 10 and 11), which
means that as a result of the additional studies, the capacity of
the reservoir is now estimated to be more than 5 billion m3
instead of merely 3.5 billion m3 .
REFERENCES
Delfiner, P., Delhomme J.P . , Pelissier Combescure J. (1983):
Application of Geostatistical Analysis to the Evaluation of
Petroleum
Reservoirs with Well Logs, 24th Annual Login
Symposium Calgary, Canada.
Delhomme, J. P. , ( 1979): Etude de la geometrie du reservoir de
Chemery, Internal Report, Centre d'Informatique Geologique,
Ecole des Mines de Paris, Fontainebleau.
Galli, A., Renard, D. (1986): BLUEPACK Geostatistical Background,
Internal Report, Centre de Geostatistique, Ecole des Mines de
Paris, Fontainebleau.
Mallet, J.L., (1984): Automatic contouring with the GEOL system.
Descriptions of commands INT and MAP. Internal Report, CIS!
Petrole Service, France.
Marechal, A. , (1984) : Kriging Seismic Data in Presence of Faults,
Proc. NATO ASI "Geostatistics for Natural Resources Characterization", ed G. Verly, Reidel, Dordrecht, Holland, pp. 271294.
Matheron, G. (1973): The Intrinsic Random Functions and their
Applications, Adv. Appl. Prob . 2 pp. 439-468.
Renard, D. (1984): Smoothing Discontinuities when Extrapolating
using Moving Neighbourhoods, Proc. NATO ASI "Geostatistics for
Natural Resources Characterization", ed G. Verly, Reidel,
Dordrecht, Holland, pp. 679-690.
BLUEPACK-3D Manual, Centre de Geostistique, ENSMP, Fontainebleau,
France.
MAP
Manual,
France.
Centre
de
Geostatistique,
ENSMP,
Fontainebleau,
119
APPENDIX
In non - stationary geostatistics, the drift (or trend) is usually
modelled using polynomials denoted by f(x). Mathematical and
practical considerations help us choose these . The corresponding
kriging system is
[
1
[
JX
'A 1. f(x.)
= f(x)
1
['A
1, ... ,n
1, ... ,m
Z(X)
[ \1.
f(x a )
f(x)
(because of the universality conditions)
Z (x) .
So the
points;
kriging
estimator
is
exactly
A, K, , + 1: ~QSQ(Xj)
1 1J
1: A.SQ(X,)
K,
JX
SQ(x)
= 1, .. ,n
= 1, .. , L
Ch. KAVOURINOS
C.M.G.M., Ecole Nationale Superieure des Techniques
Industrielles et des Mines d'Ales,
6 avenue de Clavieres, 30107 ALES, France.
ABSTRACT
The selection of mining blocks is rarely performed on their true
grades but on estimators from their blastholes. This paper shows
the influence of the number of analysed blastholes and of the
quality of this sampling, on both predicted and recovered
results.
1. DESCRIPTION OF THE GEOLOGY AND THE MINING METHOD
1.1. The Esperance Sector
Three sectors within the Pb-Zn-Ag mine at the Malines (France)
are
currently mInIng sulphide deposits related to karstic
phenomena superimposed on late hercynian fracturation. This
case-study was made on one of these three sectors (the Esperance
sector) which is at present In the reconnaissance phase of
development.
It consists of a paleozoic dolomitic bedrock which is highly
fractured, and has been covered over by black triasic shales. The
fractures are oriented in two principal directions (40' Nand
110' N). The development of the mineralisation was caused by the
flow of fluids through this fracture network resulting in
fissured ore, dissolution cavities, karstic refilling, etc. This
has led to an orebody with structures ranging from a decimetric
scale up to a scale of about one hundred metres.
121
CH. KA VOURINOS
122
3 m
for
arc
the
123
o.~
0.8
0.1
0.6
o.S
0.'
O.J
0.2
0.1
O.
z
0
Figure 1 .
10
12
16
18
20
124
CH. KA VOURINOS
10.
"Xl
..
'"
..
125
..
,.
..
..
'"
'"
I.
20
'"
,.
,.
'"
'"
I.
I.
..
..
20
'" '" I
,.
..
\0
,.
T
I.
'"
\00
..
..
/0
,.
'" ...
. '" .. ..
100
100
100
..'"
'"
,.
..
lO
.0
'"
'"
,.
I.
I.
I.
I.
"
'2
I.
I'
"
..
..
..
..
,.
'"
'"
'"
JO
..
I.
'"
"
,,
I.
"
126
CH. KA VOURINOS
,----------------------------
---~
Il')
.--------------~--~
2.50m
I
I
2.50 m
1 m 3 00 m
5m
r-
-f--
E
'---
1.5m
0.25m
I 0E
Il')
q
rC')
--------
--'----
127
1
O.
100 .
19 .
213.
9 .
49 .
50.
613.
-I e .
80 .
90 . :1313 .
100.
913 .
90.
80.
813 .
70 .
76 .
60 .
613 .
50 .
50 .
40 .
40.
31'1 .
39.
29 .
29 .
Ie.
10 .
9.
T
N'
Table 1.
of blastholes used
1
Average grade
obtained
5 .1 1
5.41
5.55
Average grade
(ideal case)
5.62
5.62
5.62
Loss of metal
as % of ideal
9 . 07
3.73
1 .24
12
lS
recovered.
CH. KA VOURINOS
128
curves
:013 .
e . se .
e.
60 .
70 .
129
B0 .
90 . ! 00 .
S0 .
le 0 .
90 .
,/
60 .
60 .
70 .
I
I
50.
60 .
70 .
60 .
50 .
40 .
40 .
3 0.
30 .
20 .
20 .
10 .
10 .
13 ' 0.
1 0.
20 .
':l
30 .
4.0 .
O.
50 .
T
Figure 5.
12
Average grade
predicted
7.11
5.98
5.60
Average grade
(ideal case)
5.62
5.62
5.62
26.50
6.40
-0.35
Loss of metal
as \ of ideal
Table 2.
OF BLASTHOLES USED
130
CH. KA VOURINOS
131
1: 00.
O.
10.
. 30.
'10.
I
5 0.
60 .
" :3.
ee.
90. : 00 .
10
91L
90 .
eo.
80.
70.
60.
50 .
50.
0 .
40 .
30.
20.
20 .
10.
10 .
80 .
ge . 100 .
0.
Z4
Z12
Average grade
obtained
5.25
5.41
5.55
Average grade
(ideal case)
5.62
5.62
5.62
6.58
3.73
1.24
Loss of metal
as \ of ideal
Table 3.
Zv
CH. KA VOURINOS
132
e.
90.
20 .
30.
-r--
-r
l in.
80.
7
se .
513.
e.
30.
/;
20 .
/,
/,
90.
r~-~
,/
,/
,/
,/
,/
,/
,/
/.
/.
....-:
00.
t 0
,.-,:'--;
9
B
70.
s .
513.
30.
20.
!" .
10 .
'0 .
10.213.30.40 .
0.
50 .
T
Table 4.
Zv*
Z12
Average grade
obtained
5 . 97
5.60
Average grade
(ideal case)
5 . 62
5.62
Relative difference
6.23
- 0.35
133
We can see that even though the sampling errors are not
systematic, they nevertheless cause the recovered metal quantity
to be overestimated. This is what causes the increase in the
differences between the predicted average grade (Table 4) and the
average grade obtained (Table 3).
CONCLUSION
We have seen that using the blasthole data to estimate the mining
block grades leads to an overestimation of the recoverable
reserves even when there is no systematic sampling error. In
selective mining operations where there is commonly a marked
difference
between
the
predicted metal recovery and the
production results, we should first see whether the difference is
due to this phenomenon before looking to other causes related to
the mining method (e.g. mixing, dilution, loss etc.).
In addition to this, the selection process based on an estimator
of the block grade leads to a loss of metal in comparison with
what could be obtained ideally if all the true grades were known.
This loss is directly related to both the quantity and the
quality of the data used. So it is clear that good sampling is of
fundamental importance to selective mining operations because
poor sampling leads to a serious drop in metal recovery and can
also mislead the miners as to their capacity to mine selectively.
REFERENCES
KAVOURINOS Ch. (1985): Estimation de la teneur des volees par
echantillonnage des boues de foration. Influence de la qualite
de l'echantillonnage sur les resultats d'exploitation. Dr.Ing. Thesis, Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines de Paris.
MATHERON
G.
(1978):
L'estimation
globale
des
reserves
recuperables. Centre de Geostatistique, Fontainebleau.
A. ZAUPA REMACRE
136
estimates.
This certainly
137
A. ZAUPA REMACRE
138
1, Be
------------..
'
..
------=~~
-~-~-~-~~~~-~-~~
~...
' .
. - .. ...
.-.
1i! .25
e . a~ .~.--------~~------>h~------~,.~.,.-----~h-~
____~h-~____~.
139
, .2-;OKI--=___________--j
$ 81381291 2 25
7 1111 1
'9'" '2 1 3
"'" 71!1012 22'2,'1 "7111 '2
'!IiliU518192lilil 13 5 '2 C
'lZliIli2aOZll8 It S 3 3
""a3l3 2382!i2118 ....
1l2.:n~It'3Jl'HIII. ']
'2 '2 1
1
J.lloltS i
')
'2
5"SaOL.llIZI I Z
I
a ,
,
I
7"573IZ e2~ l J
eIl52 1Ztnl22'1
e ,
.t "
I
II I
5
].
5 '2 .,
1
ell"
'I
1 '2 ;;:
'2
'2 )
2 ,
ill -.
j
I .
1. 2
A. ZAUPA REMACRE
140
toward the mean is obvious from the cloud of points and from the
regression shown in the inset map. It has been shown (Matheron,
1970) that ordinary kriging can be obtained from simple kriging
by replacing the known mean in the simple kriging estimator by
its local kriged estimator. This eliminates the attraction toward
the mean. This effect is more marked in cases where the kriging
weight assigned to the mean is higher; that is, when the data are
relatively sparse compared to the variogram structure.
Table
shows that these weights were in fact high. So it is
interesting to study how the regression of the DK estimator on
the ordinary kriging one varies as a function of Am (Figures 3
and 4). The attraction toward the mean is much more marked for
those panels with a large value of Am. In other words the kriging
weight assigned to the mean can be used as a criterion for
judging whether it is advisable to use stationary non-linear
techniques for the panel in question.
Am
Table 1.
('!o)
Nb of panels
< 0.2
108
0.2 - 0.3
0.3 - 0.4
458
774
0.4 - 0.5
765
0.5 - 0.6
620
0.6
532
. .
..
,
:2 1
81 L
s e ..,
It
,
., t
S 7\'
1
~
'l
141
,,
,
,
]12' 1 5 Z
21'
l11 8
ill.
5 t
1 2
I "17
-tlZ''3 1.4
'4
14'.
'Hi ,
1
I
l
J
<l:
I,j,
1 !Ii !II 1
, "
'4
1 2
15 15 .l 1 l
":i! '4
1 I 2
,
l L
.3
lot
2' 2
1 2
"
.---------_ .. -._-o .
---._-_.-_._--- ...
... - - ----
OK
..
A. ZAUPA REMACRE
142
l.C-; DK
~..~-~--------------~
"
ttl2:
15: 1t I
22'S
"
''1''''2 101 2~
81 111 21.1:.12
I 01 !5191Loi
5 LilLI \9\'" 6 1&
jI
Z
2
l
Z
...
i!I
511!1 LSI 3
92;'\ 2'\
lIZt _ 2I5tIolL'!.
1 1
01!5221511
II
7
i,I
L3 l
'4
l
;Z
,
I
:z 2:
l
7 'l
C 2
2'
!Ii
1:5
L 1
~'L
L 11;2: 3. \ 717 !i
121'2:310 .3 5
"?'ZI!iII ' .
J Llil
"
i . i-I
I .
S '"
2 t
2 '2
1
__ ot<
I.'
143
~ 1].
~R
144
[(~nr
same
)2
coefficients
~nr
of
the
block
procedure
to
obtain
R for the
145
I.
ge
Q
\
\
\
\
\
0.75
\
\
\
\
\
,,
0.511
11.25
--- --- --
'" "
'" '"
""
"
--==:::::::::::::::.. .... -
L__________~~________====~===::::;~;;-~-~-~~~~
II. ell
II. lie
- - - - -
9.25
11.511
Figure 5.
,.
I. lie
B.75
I.
zc
B"
Poor zone.
Q
~
\
\
\
\
11.75
\
\
\
'" ,
11.511
11.25
'" '"
--- --- --
'" '"
'" '"
""
11.25
Figure 6.
8.58
8.75
Average zone.
1.lIe
A. ZAUPA REMACRE
146
I.
00
0.75
0.50
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
....
r----_
... ...
....
0.25
0.25
0.50
Figure 7.
0.75
zc
1.00
Rich zone.
147
REFERENCES
DAVID M. and MARCOTTE D. (1985): The bi-gaussian approach: a
simple method for recovery estimation, Mathematical Geology,
Vol. 17, No 6.
GUIBAL D., REMACRE A. (1984): Local estimation of recoverable
reserves: comparing various methods with the reality of a
porphyry copper deposit. NATO ASI-TAHOE, D. Reidel Pub. Co.,
pp. 435-448.
GUIBAL D. and TOUFFAIT Y. (1979): Structural analysis of CC,
Centre de Geostatistique, Fontainebleau.
MARECHAL A. (1984): Recovery estimation: a review of models and
methods. NATO ASI-TAHOE, Reidel Pub. Co, p. 385.
MATHERON G. (1970): La theorie des variables regionalisees et ses
applications.
Les
Cahiers
de Morphologie Mathematique.
Fascicule 5. Centre de Geostatistique, Fontainebleau.
MATHERON G. (1976): Forecasting block grade distributions: the
transfer functions. "Geostat 75", NATO ASI, Rome, pp. 237-251.
PARKER H.M., JOURNEL A., DIXON W. (1979): The use of conditional
lognormal probability distribution for the estimation of
open-pit ore reserves in a strata-bound Uranium deposit - A
case study. Proc. 16th APCOM, 1979, pp. 133-148.
REMACRE A. . Z. (1984): L'estimation du recuperable local, Ie
conditionnement uniforme. Dr.-Ing. Thesis, Ecole Nationale
Superieure des Mines de Paris.
A. ZAUPA REMACRE
148
APPENDIX
Ore tonnage:
T(z )
c
P [Z(v) ~ Zc
P[Y v
~ y
Z(V)]
I YV]
y
- r YV
= 1 - G( c
)
s
with G cumulative density function of the standard normal N(O,1).
Quantity of metal:
QI,c}
J"
rlYv} qlYvlY.} d Yv
Yc
where g(YvIY v ) is the density function of Yv given Yv .
Daniel GUIBAL
SIROMINES
Level 5, 156 Pacific Highway, St. Leonards NSW 2000
Australie
ABSTRACT
This paper describes the application of nonlinear geostatistical
techniques to the estimation of the recoverable reserves in an
Australian gold project. In the first phase of the study, only
the
global
recoverable
reserves could be evaluated. The
generalized permanency of the distribution model was used for the
change of support. When more data became available, the local
recoverable
reserves
could
be
calculated using 'uniform
conditioning' .
NOTE: For proprietary reasons, the grades and tonnages have been
modified, and the geology of the deposit is not described in
detail. Emphasis is put on the methodology to be followed for
this type of study.
1. INTRODUCTION
The geostatistical study of this Australian gold deposit has
closely followed the evolution of the drilling ; at an early
stage, where only 45 holes were available, and the geological
model was not well established (making the definition of the
tonnage extremely difficult), a simple evaluation of the global
recoverable reserves was performed. After completion of the
drilling campaign (112 drill holes), a much better understanding
of the geology of the deposit and a better representativity of
the sampling allowed for a local estimation of the recoverable
reserves.
149
OIllP"" ),
D. GUIBAL
150
large anticlinal
rather steeply.
latter stages of
axial plane.
Figure 1.
151
v1
v2
= 5
x 3 x 7.5 m
10 x 10 x 10 m
The
method
used
for the calculations is the so called
"generalized permanency of the distribution" method : due to G.
Matheron, it is described in Appendix A.
The different steps of the study are as follows
3.1. Statistics on the data
The initial 1.5 m long samples have been composited, by defining
1.5 m high benches. As the oxidized and primary mineralizations
are significantly different, from a metallurgical viewpoint, a
separate analysis has been performed on the two zones.
D.GUIBAL
152
Mean grade
(g/t)
o/m
Oxidized zone
800
1.04
1 .9
Primary. zone
2100
1.3
2.9
.-to. 0
5.0
-f0.0
Figure 2.
20.0
153
0.7'5
0.50
Figure 3.
20.0
30.0
'+a .o
As a result, all the grades (in both the oxide and primary zones)
have been transformed into gaussian distributed values with mean
O. and variance 1. Then the variograms were recalculated on these
transformed values. The example corresponding to Figure 2 is
shown in Figure 3. It is quite striking to see how much more
clearly
the
structures
can be observed on the gaussian
variograms.
No
strong anisotropy could be detected. (The
horizontal variograms remained completely erratic). A global
model was then fitted to the gaussian experimental average
variograms. It is shown for the primary zone on Figure 3 (three
sphericals with ranges of 5 m, 40 m and 80 m).
Now, for the change of support technique, we need a model
corresponding to the raw initial composites. In agreement with
the model presented in appendix B, the variogram for the initial
composites can be deduced from the model fitted to the gaussian
variogram ; (the model used implies the hypothesis that the pairs
Ylf.' YX+h of g.aussian transformed values are bigaussian, for any
d1stance h.)
D. GUIBAL
154
and
the
~(v,v),
the
mean
dispersion of
the deposit .
= variance
of the composites -
~(v,v)
global
recoverable
reserves
are
then
readily
The results are shown in tables 2 and 3 for the primary zone. The
recoverable tonnage is expressed as a percentage of the total
tonnage of the mineralized envelope.
It
is quite interesting to compare these results to the
recoverable reserves calculated on the original 1.5 m composites
(Table 4) The essential consequence of the change of support
appears quite clearly : a marked decrease in the mean grade. The
only way to improve the recoverable grade would be to increase
the selectivity, which generally means higher costs.
As a matter of fact, the comparison between the two volumes v 1
and
v 2 shows that the smaller volume, allowing a better
selectivity, gives a higher grade.
It is important to keep in mind that, in any case, these
estimated grades represent optima, which are not likely to be
reached, because of the essential influence of the mlnlng
constraints. (The change of support techniques work under the
hypothesis of a free selection, without any constraints). As the
deposit will be mined by open-pit, this hypothesis is of course
not true, so the recovered grade will be lower.
155
TABLE 2.
Recoverable reserves for a 10 x 10 x 10m support (primary zone).
Cut-off
grade
(gft)
t1
t2
t3
t4
t5
t6
Recoverable
tonnage
57%
36%
33%
30%
21%
15%
Mean grade
(gft)
2.1
2.8
3.1
3.2
3.9
4.7
TABLE 3.
Recoverable reserves for a 5 x 3 x 7.5 m support (primary zone).
Cut-off
grade
(gft)
t1
t2
t3
t4
t5
t6
Recoverable
tonnage
49%
32%
29%
27%
19%
14%
Mean grade
gft)
2.5
3.3
3.6
3.8
4.6
5.6
TABLE 4.
Recoverable reserves calculated on 1.5 m composites
(pr imary zone).
cut-off
grade
(gft)
Recoverable
tonnage
Mean grade
gft)
t1
t2
t3
t4
t5
t6
37.9%
24.2%
22.3%
20.3%
15.4%
11 .6%
3.2
4.6
4.9
5.2
6.4
7.8
156
D. GUIBAL
to
of
no
in
157
Mean grade
(g/t)
aim
Oxides
Eastern limb
340
1.18
Oxides
Western limb
255
0.92
2.2
Primary
Eastern limb
775
1.53
Primary
Western limb
495
1. 34
1.9
expected,
the
D. GUIBAL
158
. ...J
~.O
'
..... ...
.... "
0.75
0 .50
0.25
-tOO.
zoo.
aoo.
Figure 4.
Variogram of transformed gold data (primary eastern limb).
4.3. Definiting the parameters for the local recoverable reserves
The size of the selective mining unit defined by the company is
3 x 8 x 5 m. Because this unit is very small compared to the
sampling grid, it is impossible (and meaningless) to estimate the
grade of each individual small block in the deposit. On the other
hand, . as the grid is 25 x 50 m, panels of 25 x 50 x 5 m can be
estimated by kriging with an acceptable level of accuracy.
Unfortunately from a mining point of view, this information is
159
not very useful : a panel is too big a unit, and the real level
of selectivity will be much higher (blocks).
Estimating the local recoverable reserves involves finding a
compromise between these two problems. We worked at the level of
a panel, because it does not make sense to try to estimate small
blocks
directly, but within each panel, we evaluated the
recoverable reserves corresponding to the small blocks. The
following quantities are estimated within each panel :
- the
cut-off grade
proportion
c
: P
Qc
= Qc IP c
where y*
is the kriged estimate of the panel and y. are the
gaussian ~ata in, the neighbourhood. For the neighbourhoOd, a 3 x
3 x 7 parallelepiped of panels is chosen, and 30 different
weighting factors were used. In each of the 4 zones only data
belonging
to
the
given
zone
were taken into account.
Theoretically,
a
simple
kriging
(without a universality
condition) should be performed. In this study, because of the
lack of homogeneity of the deposit in some zones, we preferred to
impose
the condition [A = 1. This did not generate many
numerical or statistical problems.
At the same time, the other quantities required by the Uniform
Conditioning method were calculated ; namely
52 =
1: Aa A~ Pa~
160
D. GUIBAL
n
Pkv = 1/N
1:
A p
I(a5 avo )
the
Qc =
Mc
fr*(y) dy
Yc
Yc
lr(y) dy
Qc/Pc
161
used in kriging.
It must be emphasised that the results, for an individual panel,
are not very accurate, and it is strongly recommended to group at
least 4 or 6 of the panels to get more reliable local estimates
of the recoverable reserves.
The quality of the estimates of individual panels could possibly
be improved by modifying the geological criteria used. As a
matter of fact, we used only part of the data for esttmating each
panel (that belonging to the same geological unit). For panels at
the border between the ore zones actually, we have a mixture of
ore types, and it would probably be interesting to estimate these
panels twice, using data from each zone in contact with it. The
final result would then be a weighted average of these two
estimates.
4.7. The global results
By grouping the estimates for all the panels we get the global
results shown in table 6.
TABLE 6. Global recoverable reserves .
cutoff
(gft)
Percentage
recovered
t1
45.9
2.0
t2
t3
35.8
28.4
2.4
2.7
t4
22.9
3.1
Cutoff
(g/t)
Percentage
recovered
Mean grade
(gft)
Number of panels
evaluated: 2006
t1
50.1
2.3
t2
36.2
2.8
t3
29.7
3.1
t4
24.8
3.6
OXIDIZED ORE
Number of panels
evaluated: 843
Averaged kriged grade
of the panels: 1.04g/t
PRIMARY ORE
Mean grade
(gft)
D. GUIBAL
162
The
primary
163
APPENDIX A
ESTIMATION OF THE GLOBAL RECOVERABLE RESERVES: 'GENERALIZED
PERMANENCY OF THE DISTRIBUTION' MODEL
The polynomials
experimentally
the grades z.
cutoff) of the
the variance of
'P.
I: .2:.
~(y)
H. (y)
i=O i!
n
I:
'P?
1
i=1 i!
between the covariance (and the
gaussian values, and the covariance
m
C (h) =
I:
i=O
. I
1.
Ciy (h)
where C (h) is the covariance of the raw values, and C (h) is the
covariaHce calculated on the gaussian values. (P~ovided the
bivariate distribution y(x), y(x+h) is bivariate normal). For the
variogram, we get :
'Pf
. I
1.
IX
[1 - (1-1 y (h)) )
164
D.GUIBAL
-1
Fv [G(y)
ip.r i
i=1
l.
1:
. I
Hi(y)
Mean grade
mv (z c )
165
APPENDIX B
GAUSSIAN ANAMORPHOSIS
Let
be
---- -- - - -- -
prClb(Y<y)
--~.
,
I
,,
'"
"
~ xpi'ri",en\-.a\
hi.~n:s,"
I
I
o.
D. GUIBAL
166
APPENDIX C
THE UNIFORM CONDITIONING TECHNIQUE
+
hisr09l'"om of Ul'1i\,"s
v ...,i\'"hin ~he pone I V
ponel V
l::,~
5elechon
IAn i t-
+
1. THE PROBLEM
Ca'
- Yk(V)P(dV)
0k(v)
0k(v)
167
Yk =
where A
LAY
ex ((
5
= 1/N
Li pexv .
1
into
Hermite
polynomials,
Hn * =
and
D. GUIBAL
168
the
P~v=
of
1/N
the
I(
correlation
between
Y .
V1
A: Pcrvi ) n
- By dividing the H*
by rn we have the value corresponding to the blocks 3 x anx 5 m. The last step 1S then to
calculate the density and the recoverable reserves.
In our study, we limited our development to 6 polynomials which
proved to be sufficient for insuring a good convergence.
ABSTRACT
The objective of the study was to compare the estimates of the
recoverable reserves made using the data from the development
drillholes on a 15m x 15m grid with the actual production figures
from a uranium deposit in Saskatchewan, Canada. The grades of
blastholes on a 3m x 3m grid and a conditional simulation which
provided a numerical model of the variability of grades, were
also used. This additional information made it possible to
experimentally check the commonly used geostatistical formulae.
1. INTRODUCTION
One of the most important questions during the preparation of the
project on this uranium deposit has been that of accurately
estimating the recoverable reserves. The main reason for this is
the complexity of the geology which has made it very difficult to
understand and interpret the deposit, from the mining point of
view, in terms of known ore. There were too few development
drillholes to allow us to use the traditional reserve estimation
methods. The results would not have been accurate enough for the
needs of the feasibility study.
So geostatistical techniques were progressively introduced into
the study of the recoverable reserves. This led firstly to the
use of technical reserve parametrage for global and local
estimates. This is described in detail in Sans and Martin (1984).
169
170
171
172
TABLE 1.
Production figures.
Cutoff
f .. )
% Ore
Metal
1. 45
26.4
1 .78
6.74
1.8
24.1
1. 74
7.23
2.5
19.2
1 .64
8.52
(0
Grade
f )
TABLE 2.
Geological reserves.
Cutoff
% Ore
Metal
Grade
(0
0.55
24.0
1. 97
8.20
1. 45
16.0
1. 90
11.9
1.8
14.6
1 .87
12.8
2.5
12.3
1 .83
14.8
f .. )
173
Mean: 2. 18' / , ,
No of Samples: 8098
Dispersion variance:
76.6 ('/,,)2
TABLE 3.
Groups of 4 points.
3 m apart
Cutoff
% Ore
Metal
1.45
26.3
1.8
2.5
6 m apart
Grade %0
% Ore
Metal
Grade %0
1 .93
7.32
27.6
1 .84
6.65
22.5
1 .86
8.30
24.1
1 .78
7.38
17.5
1. 75
10.0
18.5
1 .66
8.97
~n
3m and 6m squares is
3m squares
6m squares
N' of samples
1833
789
Mean grade
2.29%
2.23%
32.2(%.)2
23.3(%0)2
Variance
174
..
Production
3 m Groups
6 m Groups
1. 45
1.40
1. 55
1 .44
1.8
1.30
1. 46
1.34
2.5
1.15
1 . 31
1.20
Cutoff
(.
175
TABLE 5.
Reduction in the dispersion variance, going from 1m vertical
samples to 3x3m blocks.
Height of block
Reduction
1m
0.626
2m
0.669
3m
0.69
4m
0.709
5m
0.726
176
% Ore
Metal
Grade
High Selectivity
1 .8
2.5
20.5
15.6
1. 45
1. 35
7.08
8.63
Low Selectivity
1 .8
2.5
21 . 1
15.7
1. 28
6.07
7.43
1.17
177
different location for the 15m grid could have led to estimates
that were closer to the reality, or considerably exceeded it.
TABLE 7.
1.5 m samples from the 15 m development grid .
./ ..
Cutoff I ..
\ Ore
0 . 55
25 . 6
1. 24
4.86
1. 45
16.4
1. 16
7.10
1 .8
15.4
1. 14
7 . 42
2.5
11.7
1. 06
9 .08
Metal
Grade
TABLE 8.
1.5 m samples from the 3 m block grid .
Cutoff
./ ..
\ Ore
Grade
Metal
./ ..
0.55
27 . 9
1. 97
7.05
1.45
18.6
1. 88
10 . 1
1 .8
16.1
1.84
11. 5
2.5
12.6
1 .77
14 . 0
Geological reserves
(3 m blasthole grid)
". 1 . 5 msamples
,/'/
(3 m blasthole grid)
~.
,.0
Figure 1.
178
.. 0
.0
m grid I
.. "
m grid.d
Figure 2.
179
(2) For the 6m grid, the relative standard deviation for the
grades is 15%, whereas it is 11% for the ore tonnage .
(3) For the 9m x 12m grid, the results are similar to the
experimental data as far as the dispersion between the results is
concerned. The relative standard deviation is 25% for the grade
and the metal for the 1.8'/ cutoff, and is slightly higher for
the higher cutoff.
From this we can deduce that the relative standard deviation
would be about 35% to 40% for the 15m x 15m grid since there
would be half as many drillholes.
5 . 4. Calculating the theoretical precision of the grades before
any selection is made.
The variogram of the grades is used for this . The zone where the
grades are to be estimated is divided into panels, and the
estimation variance is calculated by dividing the basic extension
variance for a drillhole by the number of these panels. This
simple method is only approximate if the grid size is large
compared to the variogram range, but it nevertheless gives an
order of magnitude estimate .
For the relative standard deviations, we obtained
- 5% for the 3m x 3m grid
- 12% for the 6m x 6m grid
- 20% for the 9m x 12m grid.
These results are consistent with the preceding ones. They show
that the different sized development grids have random errors
associated with them. The order of magnitude of their variance
can be calculated. It increases with grid size but decreases as
the size of the zone studied increases .
5.4. The Differences between the Grade-Tonnage Curves
We have seen that the predicted recoverable reserves in the pit
were below the actual production figures. But considering how
large the difference between the 1. 5m samples on the 15m
development grid and the 3m blasthole grid, it is rather
surpr~s~ng
that the difference is not even larger (Figures 3 and
4) . Moreover despite the larger support, the predictions are even
higher than for the 1.5m samples in the drillholes.
In
fact,
these
holes were particularly poor within the
experimental pit. The richest mineralizations that were missed
here happened to ' lie just underneath the pit, where the grade was
found to be three times higher. As the experimental pit is a
180
.--
_ - --.
. . .-. e -
..0.... 0
3 m blasthole grid
(1 . 5 m samples)
Production figures
0'
.0
0"
"
-4 . 0
O~.I~ ~'
'----=-=-.
Figure 3.
'3ot.
20,.
.. ~
CI
................
,
................
~
...........
1.~
0,
' 1).
0 Production figures
~
1.0
o.
~.,,0. ...
'.
'0
15 m d rillhole gr i d
(l. 5 m samples )
"S
..
Figure 4.
181
rather small volume, these rich grades had a weight of 15% in the
kriging
of
the service variables that was used for the
predictions. There is no simple direct way of evaluating their
influence, since the distribution of the grades for the whole
deposit influences service variables calculations. But it is
clear from the grade-tonnage curves (Figures 3 and 4) that the
estimation method has partly corrected the particularly poor
grades of the holes within the pit. There is still a difference
which has to be considered as primarily being a random error due
to the lack of precision of the 15m grid. This error is local
which means that the validity of the prediction for the whole
mine is not brought into question.
6. CONSEQUENCES
182
H. SANSANDJ. R. BLAISE
183
APPENDIX
2~(v,V)
~(V,V)
~(v , v)
The mean of the 219 errors calculated was 1.44'/" and the
variance was (114'/,,)2, which gives a mean square error of 116
(,/ ' , )2
. This
has to be compared to the theoretical extension
variance of 67.8('/,,)2; the theoretical mean is, of course,
zero .
(b) Interpreting the Results
To get these figures into perspective we present the statistics
for two sets of 1m long samples. The mean of the 8098 values for
the pilot open pit was 2 . 17 while that of the 219 values used in
the tests was 3 . 75 . The variances were 76 . 6 and 144 respectively.
From this it is clear that the 219 values are not representative
of the pilot opeh pit. Their mean and variance are much larger .
184
A different choice for the origin of the sets would have given
different
results. In fact the theoretical formulae would
correspond to the results for all possible choices.
A.2. The Proportional Effect
For a given support size, the differences between the variances
for different sets of data are often related to differences
between their mean values. In general the variance increases with
the mean, but the exact relation between the two is not known a
priori. It lS important to determine it because of its influence
on local estimation variances, for example.
When the service variables were kriged using the data from the
15m
grid, the proportional effect was used to scale the
estimation variance since it is clear that the higher the local
mean is, the less precise the estimates are.
We will now see what sort of relationship there is between the
mean and the variance for grades. The test was carried out using
the 1m long samples on the 3m grid. The mean and the variance of
the grades within 15m x 15m x 1m panels were calculated for all
panels containing at least 20 sample grades. Figure A1 shows the
scatter diagram of variance against mean on a bilogarithmic
scale. The slope of the regression line was 2.167. So although
the proportional effect is quite pronounced, it is not exactly
lognormal (or else the slope would have been 2.0).
/
/
/
/
...
.A
.J14:"
..../.., .:~
/. ....
. J~'::
.?!.~
..:,~(.
yo ......
/.,","
/
Figure A1.
Me
185
SUPERIEURE
DES MINES DE PARIS, 77305 Fontainebleau, France.
ABSTRACT
A model is needed to estimate the distribution of selection
blocks (and then the recoverable reserves) from the distribution
of samples. Four models (gaussian, gamma, negative binomial,
mosaic) have been tested on skewly distributed uranium data. They
gave satisfactory results for the global estimates of the
recoverable reserves. The slight differences between the models
were due to the differences between the hypotheses for the four
models.
INTRODUCTION
The in-situ resources of a deposit cannot usually be mined out
completely. Technical as well as economic constraints make it
necessary to select only a fraction of these resources. This
defines the recoverable reserves. The selectivity is closely
related to the size of the "selection support" - that is the
minimal volume of material that can be selected.
When recoverable reserves are to be estimated from systematic
reconnaissance data, the available data correspond to very small
supports (for instance cores). These are often very poor or very
rich, and can give the illusion of an easy separation between ore
and waste. Si.nce the miners exploit blocks and not cores, the
grade distribution of the selection blocks has to be estimated
from that of the cores.
187
G. Matheron and M. Armstrong (eds.), Geostatistical Case Studies, 187-208.
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
188
= Z(V)
which states that, given a block V with grade Z(V), the grade of
a sample~, randomly located in V, has to be equal on average to
the grade of v.
So the difference between the gaussian, the gamma, the negative
binomial,
and the mosaic models comes from the bivariate
hypothesis that is made on the pairs (Z(~),Z(V)).
l~
~(yv)
where
Yv
1S
the
standard
~v(yv)
normal
variable
associated to the
If 9 denotes
rewritten as :
the
~V(Y)
standard
+00
E[~(Yy)IYv
normal
~(ry+{1-r2u)
~v
is
y]
density ,
g(u) du
-00
The
variance of ltv) =
~v(Yv)
satisfies:
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
190
T(z)
c
191
The choice of the parameters for the gamma, negative binomial and
mosaic models is explained in the appendices.
The gaussian model gives satisfactory results as does the
negative binomial one. The gamma model gives slightly better
results on high grades, whereas the mosaic model proves to be
excellent
overall.
This probably stems from the "mosaic"
structure of the deposit, where waste passes and variably
mineralized passes can be found alternatively.
CONCLUSION
All four models tested here (gaussian, gamma negative binomial,
mosaic) gave quite satisfactory results when estimating global
recoverable reserves under difficult conditions (i.e. for a skew
distribution). The differences between experimental and estimated
curves are very small. In practice, one would expect larger
differences that would come from the definition and the variance
of the selection support.
The differences that were observed between the models come from
the hypothesis relative to each of them. It will be interesting
to study the behaviour of these models for local estimation.
192
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
EXPERIMENTAL
GAUSSIAN
GAMMA
4.
Figure 1a.
1.3
..
- .. -
5.
6.
7.
B.
13.
9.
Yo
EXPERIMENTAL
GAUSSIAN
3.9
GAMMA
0.B
"
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.
1.
2.
Figure 1b .
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
B.
9.
10.
"
1.B
193
B.S
B.8
8.7
B.8
80'S
....
B.3
______ EXP"ftlHENTAL
8.2
GAUSSIAN
B.8
T X
8.1
Figure 1c.
1.B
8.1
B.2
8.'3
8.14
8.5
8.8
8.7
8.8
8.8
1.8
EXPERIMENTAL
GAUSSIAN
B. 9
GAMMA
B.8
B.7
B.6
0.5
0.4
B.3
B.2
B.l
0.B
0.
1.
Figure 1d.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
194
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
1.0
T eZl
Experiment.al
Gau ian
0.9
~
Nagat.lve
binomial
0.B
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.14
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.
1.
2.
Figure 2a.
1.0
5.
3.
6.
B.
7.
9.
10.
eZl
Experiment.al
Geu tan
0.9
N.ga~iv.
binomial
0.B
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.14
0.3
0.2
0.1
B.0
0.
1.
.Figure 2b.
2.
3.
14.
5.
6.
7.
B.
10.
1.9
195
Q(T)
9.9
1.8
1.7
1.&
1.5
....
I.~
1.2
0 ...... 10"
1.1
8.9
L-__
a.8
Figure 2c.
1.0
9.1
__
____L -__
8.2
9."
a.~
__
____
8.5
__
8.&
8.7
__
____
a.&
__
8.8
1.8
B (Z)
Experiment-al
Gau tan
0.9
Negat-ive binomial
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.~
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.
1.
Figure 2d.
2.
3.
~.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Figure 3a.
loB
Q Yo
EXPERIMENTAL
B.9
GAUSSIAN
I..
MOSAIC
B.B
.:-
B.7
B.6
0.5
B.'I
0.3
". " .
0.2
.. .. .:."'::'.: ......
B.l
'-
...
0.B
:z
B.
1.
2.
Figure 3b.
3.
'I.
5.
6.
7.
B.
9.
1 B.
197
r (a)
-Y
a-I
Y
(y > 0)
+00
ria)
e- Y ya-I dy
1.S
1.8
8.5
1.
2.
s.
~.
s.
8.
7.
8.
8.
18.
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
198
1.8
"
a.9
0.8
a.7
8.8
0.5
/,
o.q
'
a.3
______ EXf'IEIUJ1ENTAL
a.2
GRUSSIAN
_._._. "OSRIC
0.1
8.8
T X
8.8
Figure 3c.
loB
8.1
B.2
8.3
8....
8.S
8.8
8 .. 7
8.8
8.8
t.8
B Yo
EXf'.ER 1 MENTAL
GAUSSIAN
B.9
MOSAIC
B.8
B.7
B.6
B.5
B.4.
B.3
B.2
B.l
-- ... - .... -
B.B
B.
Figure 3d.
1.
2.
3.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
.....
_- ...lB.
"
199
The gamma density function has moments of all orders. In particular E(Y) = cx and Var(Y) = cx.
In order to manipulate functions of a gamma variable, it is
convenient
to use an expansion of them into a basis of
polynomials that are orthonormal for 9 . The normalized Laguerre
polynomial of degree n can be definca using Rodrigues' formula
(Sze(ji:i, 1939)
cx
Q (y)
+00
f(x,y)
n=O
where
0 ,
l'
r (a)
~ r (a.+n) r (a.)
Starting from this hypothesis, a relationship between
can be easily obtained, as follows. Cartier's formula
E
{Z(~)lz(v)}
and
~'
Z(V)
can be rewritten
E {~(Yy)IYv) = lj)v(Y v )
Now, we expand
polynomials,
the
two
anamorphosis
+00
and
~V =
L ~'n
n=O
a.'
Qn
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
200
so that we deduce
Ip
=1'
C(a,a ) 1jl
n
n
(n
0,
1,
2, . . )
{b Y }
= E{Z(v))
= 0.810
So, we obtain a
0.7
= 0 . 115.
The assessment of a' and r is not so easy . Indeed only two block
statistics are available. These are the mean value E{Z(V)) =
E{Z(v)} = 0.81
and
the
variance
Var{Z(V)} = Va1'{Z(v)} 1 (V,V) = 2.323. But the first one is taken into account directly
b~ Cartier's relation, Furthermore, there are several constraints
upon a I:
n ~ 1, the correlation coefficient between QU(y ) ~nd
is rnCn(a,a'). To have it less than 1 for any n, w~ must
necessarily take a' ~ a.
QU
~) if
(Y v )
ii) because of the relation between the two anamorphosis func tions, a/ and r must satisfy:
+00
+00
Val' {Z(V)}
n=1
= L l'2n
1jl'2
n=1
n'
and thus
n=1
201
+00
Var {Z(V}} = [
n=1
~'2
n
imposes r . Of course, the choice of cr' is not without consequences. As it is shown on Figure 5, the value cr' = cr
max gives the
best results. How can we interpret it?
loB
B.9
./
./
B. 8
./
/
/
B.7
./
./
B.8
./
B.5
..
B.~
B.2
.. . . . .
f'OlNT DRTA
------
BLOCK DATA
_0_"_ 0 GAMMA
".\
T X
".B
8.8
8.\
8.2
8.~
B.~
8.S
8.8
8.7
8.8
8.9
1.8
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
202
{b Y }
Var (Z(v)}
Var
{b'Y V }
Var (Z(V)}
1S
to require the
203
The
set
of
[I=i]
orthogonal
= P. = q
1
i
u r(u+i) L
. I
r(u) 1.
polynomials
with
p = l-q
p(u+n) Hn +1(i)
(conventional)
E [~(I)2]
<
+00
= I: l/ln Hn (I)
=>
l/ln = I:
i
~(i)
Hn (i) P.1
pn r(u+n)
n! r(u)
204
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
elz )
ex
Ij):N-+R+
1
z.
1-1
<z <z
ex 1
Ij)li)
2;
2;
Ij)
II)
lS
minimized:
"small".
The last step in the procedure is to calculate the expansion of
in term of H :
Ij)
= [
Ij)li)
An empirical
problem.
and
~n
Hn li )
satisfactory
iii)
Pv
U
Pv = p
v > uv
vV
wij
= wi Wj
with
iv)
205
rlu +n) p n
v
n
rlu v) n l
Ij!v =
Ij!n
n
Ij!V
ZIV)
The parameter
Uv
Ijlv
Z{,)
L Ij!n HVli)
n
n
11 )
Ijlv l j )
=L
n
Ij!n HnVIJ)
=L
02
0.7
0.9072
O. 15.
Ijl
II)
=L
n~20 n
HVII)
n
= 0.812
S
(Selectivity for samples
f(
= 0.638
= 0.645)
206
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
10- 3
max
= 0.9
= 0.51,8
0.5072
207
~(Y)
di~tribution
(1
G(y}
where
Cl
Cl)
Cl F(y}
F(y}
Cl
Var (l(V})
Var (l(v)}
sample
1x <y
within v, the
F(dx) G(dy)
we
YV . From
= l(V}
and
~'
~I(y} = ~(y)
y-
[1
- Cl
F(y}1 + Cl
~(x)
F(dx}
208
C. DEMANGE ET AL.
REFERENCES
LANTUEJOUL Ch. and RIVOIRARD J. (1984): Une methode de determination d'anamorphose, Centre de Geostatistique, ENSMP, Fontainebleau.
MATHERON G. (1978): L'estimation globalc des reservcs rccupcrables, Centre de Geostatistiquc, ENSMP, Fontainebleau.
MATHERON G. (1983): Modeles isofactoriels et changement
support, Centre de Geostatistique, ENSMP, Fontainebleau.
de
CALCULATING ORE
URANIUM DEPOSIT
RESERVES
SUBJECT
ABSTRACT
The uranium deposit at Bertholene in SE France has a diffuse
mineralization which is divided into fairly distinct ore pockets.
Two of these zones have been studied:
- Orebody B which is being mined by cut and fill
- An open pit above the 715 m level.
The recoverable reserves for Orebody B were calculated by
applying geometrical constraints due to the mining method to a
numerical model of the orebody. This model had been made in a two
step
procedure
of
first using indicator functions, then
introducing the grades. This makes it possible to reconstitute
the overall structure of mineralized veins inside a waste matrix;
but the details of the individual veins in the model do not
correspond to the reality. The reserves were then compared to the
production figures for the whole orebody and level by level.
Inside the open pit, a 3D geostatistical model of the grades was
set up directly and was used to reconstitute various sizes of
selection blocks. The overall results obtained were compared to
those given by the discretized gaussian model. In a more
restricted zone, the geostatistical predictions were compared
with the production figures.
1. INTRODUCTION
The Bertholene uranium deposit run by Total Compagnie Miniere
(France), started underground mining in 1982. The open-pit was
209
G. Matheron and M. Armstrong (eds.), Geostatisticai Case Studies. 209--246.
210
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
211
Sedimet\~ory
Gronir
p.u~ettO-limo<eil1
crywllil'lc
~rle.
RI./teno-limol./~i\'l sc.hish>sc
212
L. DE CHAMBUREET AL.
213
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
214
percussion
along the
m of drive
m of cored
This
-
215
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
216
217
(290)
'268)
Etz3)
00)
SurfaCe Holes
A"eI"Q~ Q~\e.
of r"\'e m-'VlerQhzed ~ruc.h.l..e",
L. D E C H A MBURE E T AL.
218
219
~(h)
= 0.07 5ph (3.6m, 1.7m, 2.5m) + 0.065 Sph (40m, 10m, 10m)
220
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
j
~,
,....1:" .,
,, .
, ,, .
,~
"
...
~~,
..,'
" ,
..,
f .-~
- - - ; ' r-:;
\'
, "
J \'
\
.~
.,,~ I, .,,
,
./0\'" 'i
'""
"" ',
,1\" ,',
,,
, ,..\-~ I ,,
,
,,
"!'
'!
>
~,
20
20
b) Horizontal direction,
perpendicular to the
longitudinal extension.
a) Vertical direction.
f'
,,
- - - - -
..'
,./
'.'
~--"'J':""''-----
110
221
(ry - a )
~~2
This
blocks.
The discretized gaussian model was used for this
modelization. The coefficient of change of support was r = 0.98,
which is almost 1.0.
00
=[
1\12
n pn(h)
1 n!
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
222
- - - - - - - - -;..
I, '.'J
Ii
--
/\ /\.
, \ ,. '... l
1\
-.- -
- - - - -
./-'
"
.'\
l'
\._-'\,'
I
,.
'V
II
{'
"
'
\.
r
b) Horizontal
a) Vertical
point
The
comparison between the experimental variogram for the
conditioned gaussian equivalents and the corresponding model
deduced from the covariance of the raw data is not very good.
This is because of difficulties analysing a limited number of
highly variable scattered data (Figure 8).
: 'I
/,
, ,
-- :_\._------- ~ - ~-,
,.
\,
-"----I,
,',
-t. -\.. ---?
.:,
- - -/-",~,,+:,-,_:_,+,
\\
"
,
,'
"
~.
~,II
,
-
a) Vertical
~\
\.'
---7----
-- --- ~- ~\~.----.
.,,,
.'
.
\\
.~
'"
,
~
b) Horizontal
point
223
= T(ore)
x p + T(waste) x (1-p)
where T(ore) and T(waste) are the ore and waste grades after
transformation back to the real scale. The results are presented
in Table 1 and on Figure 9.
TABLE 1.
Statistics of the orebody.
BLOCKS (203 900)
Grade
Mean
Variance
Maximum
299
0.9 10 6
24 980
SAMPLES (2 161)
Mineralized
Proportion
Grade
Indicator
0.163
0.110
1
322.
1.37 10 6
19 558
0.159
0.133
1
The elongated shape of the deposit and its dip are evident. The
model also reproduces the sudden variations in grades at short
distances. The limitations of the model are that the small number
of conditioning data (about 1 sample per 100 blocks), can lead to
anomalies particularly along the edges of the deposit, and
secondly the absence of information at short distances along
orebody B.
3.4. Calculating the Reserves for a Cut and Fill Method
In order to estimate the reserves that would actually be
recovered using a cut and fill method, we need the values of
certain technical parameters (Deraisme et al., 1982). These are
not always easy to quantify (e.g. the dilution factor, the gamma
log-grade correlation for loads). So these were set to apparently
realistic values and then the sensitivity of the model to
variations in these values was tested. After the study had been
completed, the production figures started to become available
from the mine. So it was possible to check the values chosen
earlier.
, ,
x'( . . "
"
:.. . .
:.::: .~::::::
.+ttu,;:
-t.);
' .~ +H'~i~'t
' ' +',x'Jti::::"""'"
. . ~ ......
xx
Figure 9.
... . .
I ' "
... x .
"
."~"n"'
" ';iitij"
,'."
~
,
.,
...
. +. I '
. . +, . .
I 1'++'
, ++.
..
~.:
.. ::~;;;,;,t:
~
... _ .. :::: fIll" .... .+.".
.)\. : .:............
:~::~: ~ , ..:.:\1T.;..;.:
,"
~::: : ~:x"
:..:~IZ: , ... ' :~:
, . :~ ~!r::::::::::::::::.: ::::::::
~ 1
:++ . . ...
otTl
>
..,tTl
tTl
;>:l
c:
OJ
:r:
>
()
225
for
the
30 m slice
considered
are presented in
. . I .. . . . . . J
~u~ :
: :: : :: :
**-_
iy::a:aX ~ y :
... V . ::ue .
: .. :
.
d+<Ii
:9;;::1
.: ..
I I :
' IX:::: : : :.: i~
::
.: .....
.. I
---*-
Figure 10.
'VV
..
.. ... . . . . . . . .
.+ .... .............. .
..
.':
I v.!..
~ : I :::::::: : :::::::::
...L
~miiir~
.tII....!iIIr..*-_*-JIIiuII!.
: ::~ : :i ~ :::
.. . ... . . .... .. .
tT1
>
r
tT1
-l
c:
~
to
3::
>
n
::r:
r
tJ
N
N
0-
227
TABLE 2.
Comparing the reserves for a free selection
with those subject to constraints.
Without constraints
1x1x3
Ore
Metal
Grade
Material moved/ore
81.4
72.7
89.3
1. 16
With constraints
1x1x1
1x1x3
1x1x1
59.4
72.3
121.2
1. 59
72.5
66.3
91.5
1.26
55.0
66.4
120.8
1 .66
228
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
1x1x1
WITH CONSTRAINTS
1x1x3
1x1x1
CONTINUITY 3 m
Ore
Metal
Grade
Mat. moved/ore
88.57
76.49
86.34
1 . 11
63.56
76.00
119.6
1. 54
82.94
72.92
87.94
1.23
61.77
72.85
117.9
1.65
CONTINUITY 10 m
Ore
Metal
Grade
Mat. moved/Ore
72.7
67.0
92.1
1. 26
54.8
67.0
122.2
1. 67
71.2
65.0
91.3
1. 33
54.3
65.3
120.2
1. 74
229
57.59
60.00
104.1
1. 19
1 * 1
11:
44.28
59.99
135.2
1.55
64.9
66.3
102.1
1. 40
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
230
We see that the metal recovery varies little but that the tonnage
increases markedly, which leads to a drop in the average grade.
Since the total tonnage is constant, the quantity moved decreases
and so the ratio of material moved improves.
3.6. Comparison with the Production Figures
This is always difficult because:
- the model for Orebody B does not correspond exactly with
zone exploited,
- the cutoff grade varies from stope to stope,
- the shape of the stopes is not a multiple of 1 cU.m.
blocks,
- the estimation errors have not been calculated experimentally, and have not been taken into account in the simulations,
- the
dilution
is difficult to evaluate. In previous
simulations, the average values of these (1.0 and 0.90) were
used. So we can obtain these coefficients using simple models as
was done in case 2 shown in Table 6.
The two simulations compared with the actual production figures
were made:
(1) assuming an underground cutoff of 800 ppm, a minimum stope
width of 3 m, a block size of 3 cU.m. and taking the average
values for the metal recovery and the ore recovery.
(2) taking
the
same parameter values, but simulating the
dilution to obtain an ore recovery of 0.98 and a metal recovery
of 0.94.
Ore
Metal
Grade
CASE 1
CASE 2
95.8
89.5
93.5
94.2
93.8
99.6
231
METAL
GRADE
28.5
64.1
20.5
79.0
46.0
74.8
70.3
76.4
122.2
120.6
LEVEL
10
METAL
GRADE
176.9
127.2
156.5
126.3
141.3
96.3
35.1
77 .2
102.2
59.8
232
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
...
-.
.~.
7
7 ....
70.
..
"
Figure 11.
-.
'n.
-.
."..
7_.
REMOVED DATA
1-8
1
In -
1-8 mR
HOMOGENEOUS DILUTION
METHOD 2
with 0
0'2
02
m'
p)
(m R
m - 8(1 -
zs)
0'
- 1 [0 2 - 8 0 2 - - 8 (m - m) 2]
1-8
R
1-8
R
m'.
Variance
METHOD 1
Notations:
B : proportion of removed or modified data (n/NO)
mR and 02R : mean and variance of removed or modified population.
Figure 12.
Influence of transformations on the highest values of grades
(example: Initial population of 11014 data (ZC), with 25 values>
10 000 ppm, successively modified)
4'10
480
'-...,;::
Ie
...
-.....;~............... 1'. 2
L....
- .............
_.e
da~a
t .e.,
...._-
..
r.....o-i"
-.i-
"
...
,
~
....'-----.----..-------.~ ...
f' = .5
....
rc.O'i~o . ~
-.-,. ~--:~
.~-
HI. re.ov.d
~(.
~~~
-" ......--
' ..........
---",-,_.-.
..........
...
I."
>
N
W
W
o
z
Cl
o
e;
z
Z
-l
trl
"-
c:IJ:j
VJ
en
<
trl
:;0
trl
en
trl
:;0
trl
Cl
z
o
:;0
~
::l
h
c:
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
234
.-to
.06
.05
4.
Figure 13.
Histograms of translated logarithms: log(a + grade) (Data of ZC).
235
,\
'noY'll:ontoU)'
I
l \
/1'\
/.
. ' I
\
. ,~
--
... I
i',
'\ ,
AZ FI
I
\
... -'/-
20
Model
",(h)
Figure 14.
Variogram of translated logarithm (LTEN: log (500 + grade),
calculated for inclined slices.
The structural analysis was carried out on several groups of
samples above the 715 m level. The first set (denoted by SMM)
consisted of those within the zone where the reserves are to be
estimated. These include a set of vertical drillholes outside the
mineralization which caused the variogram sill to be lower than
the variance. See Figure 15. This could later lead to incorrectly
choose a variogram model with zonal anisotropy.
The second set of samples (called ZC) consists of those within
the zone used to condition the simulation which lies inside the
first zone. The basic statistics for these two sets are given in
Table 8. The second set clearly contains less waste than the
first.
The drillholes inside
direction classes.
the
first
zone
were
grouped
into
1 669
520.
420 .
445.
413.
545.
438.
9 683
ZS : simulated zone
(+ KWS)
295.
499.
417.
25 252
262.
mean m
11 014
28 692
ZC : conditioning zone
(+ KWS: kriging weights sum)
Nb. of
data
KEY
2.82
1.44
1. 21
0.91
2.04
1.25
1. 83
1.17
1.014
.902
varianc~6
0 2 x 10
3.23
2.86
2.86
2.31
2.62
2.55
2.62
2.59
3.41
3.62
variance
coeff. aim
TABLE 8 .
Elementary statistics on grades of 1 m samples, for the main selections,
and influence of weighting methods.
tn
>-
tn
tn
>-l
c:
:>;l
t:O
3::
:r:
>-
r
tJ
""
237
ND
m
02
0:
0:
0:
18022
177 . 5
ND
m
4 . 11 10 5
02
04 .00
.. .J..
--..
2.0
-'
"
0:
0:
2129
253 . 6
. 91 lOG
.'
O.lIO
. .../
.......... . ,
"~"'''''-4':'.'"",\.J.........!
.t.o
-to .
20.
30 .
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
238
!i
Figure 16.
Overall
Recoverable
Reserves
for Different
239
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
240
J5 C -
2x4xl m3
- - -- _._--_
. .-
2x4x3 m3
.- - - -
T",
4x4xl m3
v '" 4x4xl m3
oc t
I
t
-=--=
- ~--:-Z~,.,~
<0 0
50 -
50 -
4x4x3 m3
4x4x3 m3
Z'G
...{
:\,
.
6"00
/,' 'I
,:/ 'I
!:'/
"000
...........
Q(T)
""'-
.1I
9'
i_
:Zooo
. ........
~ '.....-.s
zc
;'/1
:11
,:: ,'
.. / r
:' 1 '/
:t
.... /
....
T.
~-
>.
. . >-
.... /
'7
.... /
:I"
")
Q ( ..00,,_\
T(z c )
100
aoo
ICIO
40.'
-100
:Zoo
'00
"
" ....
....
'IT"=2,,2><1.
'I1"=4xZ)li.
:ZCCo
Zc
""'"
"600
' .... ,
Q (z c )
.....,..
' .... ,
', ...
~ '<-~.,,'. . '.
~"<-"
\~~\.
Figure 18.
Cutoff
grade - tonnage
relationship
inside the exploited zone.
Dotted line: Simulation (2x2x1, 4x2x1
and 4x4x3 m3 blocks). Continuous line:
production.
'"
;!::
[/)
...,
~Z
o
z
Z
Z
s::
q...,
tr1
'--<
tIl
[/)
[/)
-<
tr1
:;0
tr1
[/)
tr1
:;0
tr1
z
o
:;0
~
::l
>tc
242
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
> zc
Indicator Function:
I (zc)
Recovery Function:
FR (zc)
Average grade:
ZUP
Recovered grade:
1 if Z (v)
otherwise
Clearly ZR (zc) > zc and ZR (zc) > ZUP. In this case these
recovery
functions
were
calculated
for m1n1ng units of
8 x 8 x 3 m3
and for a cutoff grade of 300 ppm. Three different
support sizes were considered for the selection units. They were
(1) 2 x 2 x 1 m3 , (2) 2 x 4 x 1 m3 and (3) 4 x 2 x 1 m3 . In all
three cases the cutoff grade for selection units was set at 400
ppm.
The results for the recovery functions are presented in the form
of their cumulative histogram and their scatter diagram of the
243
'2.
21 2 .
384 .
So
s s.
~ : RF >' 75
ij/,/: RF>.?"
/ / , RF).2
Le'3e..,~ :
i 21.1,
19~ .
120,.
212 .
39 4.
1 9 2,
.,',
::t;
.~ ... ~
.-
.,~-....,
~'
io
.,.'
..
,;
,,,.,,,
30
n(nV
,""'--4
along
x.
0'
.4t
l(h)
Figure 20.
~
~
>-
til
2:
>-
::c
trl
tl
These restrictions
the exploitation.
245
5. CONCLUSION
(a) positive results
Despite the extreme variability of the mineralization, geostatistics provides satisfactory estimates of the global recoverable
reserves which can be used for medium term planning of the open
cast mine.
Indicator functions can be used in a two stage procedure for
modelling
multi-fissured deposits. In the first step, the
geometry of the orebody is modelled using indicator functions,
then the grades are modeiled inside the orebodies. This procedure
requires a good knowledge of the mineralization, which may in the
future lead to a new type of exploration procedure: drilling
along the strike of the mineralization much in the same way as
drives are put inside orebodies.
(b) Limitations and future developments
Even though the predictions obtained were globally satisfactory,
they are not accurate enough for local short term planning - but
then, this was not their objective. A second shortcoming is that
the techniques described here require the use of fairly large
computers and considerable data preparation. So before they could
be used routinely by mining companies, four types of improvements
are needed.
- A more accurate way of modelling the geometric details of
the orebody is required. In addition to statistical and geostatistical information, it should take acount of the geology, the
tectonics etc.
- Techniques for applying geometric constraints should be
made more flexible, so as to be suitable for several different
exploitation methods, and also for 3D spaces.
- A method for updating these mathematical models is needed,
as to be able to input new production and exploration data
without time consuming calculations.
50
L. DE CHAMBURE ET AL.
246
REFERENCES
DERAISME J. et al., 1985: Vers une simulation d'exploitation
ciel ouvert. Industrie Minerale, Les Techniques, Dec. 1985.
g~ostatistiques
de
ISAAKS
E., 1984: Indicator Simulation: Application to the
Simulation of a high grade uranium mineralization. ASI,
Geostatistics for Natural Resources Characterization, Reidel
Co., Dordrecht, Holland.
JOURNEL
A.,
1974: Simulations conditionnelles. Theorie
pratique. Doctoral thesis, ENSMP, Fontainebleau, France.
et
INDEX
247
248
logarithm 5, 6, 26, 189
logarithm, translated I, 5
logarithms 218, 234, 235
lognormal 189, 223
lognormality 2, 135
mapping 93
mineable reserves 69, 84, 90
minimum mineable width 44
mining constraints 209
missing values 43
mosaic model 5, 188, 191,207
multigaussian 166
neighbourhood III, 112
nickel 39, 40, 43, 46, 47
non linear 215
non-homogeneity 217, 237
non-homogeneous 135, 136, 137, 146
non-stationary 77
nonlinear 149, 156
openpit90,51, 154, 162, 170, 172, 176, 178,209,
210,212,213,214,215,231,239
optimal drilling 75
optimal grid 75, 174
optimum drilling densities 53
outlines 3
overestimation 128, 133
oxidized (mineralization) 151, 157, 161
permanency of distribution 149, 151, 163
pit 170, 171, 176, 179
porosity 95, 96
preferential sampling 234
primary
(mineralization)
151,
152,
155,157,158,161
production figures 63, 169, 171, 173, 174, 176,
180,209,223,230,231,239
proportional effect 184, 219
proportional effect, lognormal 184
radiometric 225, 239
radiomet,ric grade 2
radiometry 2
recoverable reserves 124,133,137,149,151,154,
156, 169, 175, 176, 182209,213,215,234
recoverable reserves, global 169 , 187, 191 , 204
recoverable reserves, local 135, 136, 146, 169
recovery function 213, 228, 229, 242, 243
reef 93, 94
regularization 173
rehabity classes 82
reservoir 105, 106, 107, 112
robustness 3
INDEX
Rodrigues' formula 199
sampling 121, 122, 128, 130, 133
seismic 105,106,107,108, 109,110, Ill, 112
seismic data 93, 94, 96, 97, 99, 102, 103
selection blocks 215
service variables 212
simulate 29
slope analyses 77
spline 39, 56, 64, 101, 110
stationarity 143
stationary 207, 221, 231
stockwork 2, 210
support effect 225, 227
tectonics 71, 78
translated 1, 5
translated log 6
turning bands 237
underground 75,88,90,209,210,213,214,216,
229, 235
uniform conditioning 143, 144, 149, 156, 159,
162, 166, 167
uniformly distributed 234
universality 119, 135, 136, 137, 143, 144
universility condition 143, 159
uranium23,30, 169, 170, 171, 174,209,210,211,
213, 217, 219, 231
variogram, first order 2, 5
vein-Iype 39, 40
water saturation 95
wells 93, 94, 95, 97, 98,102,103,105,106,107,
109, 110, Ill, 112
wireline logs 93, 94, 95, 97, 98
zinc 121,122