Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Deep Waters Exploitation Department, Eje Central Lzaro Crdenas 152, Gustavo A Madero 07730, D.F., Mexico
COPPE-Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Civil Engineering Department, Cidade Universitria, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I-2000, Sala I-116, Ilha de Fundo 21945-970,
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
article
info
Article history:
Received 16 June 2007
Received in revised form
23 February 2008
Accepted 12 May 2008
Available online 1 July 2008
Keywords:
TLP
Tendons
Hurricanes
Reliability-based design
Floating systems
a b s t r a c t
This paper presents a methodology to perform a Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) criterion
for the design of Tension Leg Platform (TLP) tendons in their intact condition. The proposed design
criterion considers the Ultimate Limit State (ULS) for the tendon sections, expressed in terms of the
expected value of the extreme Interaction Ratio (IR), considering long-term storm sea states, and takes
into account the dynamic load effects interaction and the statistics of its associated extreme response.
The partial safety factors are calibrated through a long-term reliability-based methodology for the storm
environmental conditions in deep waters of the Campeche Bay, Mexico. Different target reliability values
are considered in order to evaluate the effect of this key parameter on safety factors. The results show that
the partial safety factors reflect both the uncertainty content and the importance of the random variables
in structural reliability analysis. When tendons are designed according to the developed LRFD criterion,
a less scattered variation of reliability indexes is obtained for different tendon sections across a single or
a variety of TLP designs. Finally, it is observed that the target reliability value has a strong influence over
the safety factor values and thus over the final size of the structural elements.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
TLPs are floating structures anchored to the sea bottom through
vertical tensioned tendons. The taut tendons hold the platform in
place and they remain tensioned due to the excess of buoyancy
caused by the floating hull. The tendon system is a critical
component for the TLPs, since its failure may lead to the collapse
of the whole structure involving human lives, economic losses
and damages to the environment. Thus, the tendon system has
to be designed to withstand the possible occurrence of different
limit states such as maximum and minimum tension, hydrostatic
collapse and fatigue for intact and damage conditions [1].
On the other hand, the structural design commonly follows
technical rules, practice recommendations or codes that have
been developed based on Bayesian evolution taking into account
successful projects as well as structural failures [2]. However, these
standard practices present some difficulties to be directly applied
to the novel structural concepts, with few design projects available
and little operational experience. In these cases, procedures based
on structural reliability become powerful design tools, because
they are able to take into account random uncertainties associated
with load and resistance variables and to consider the safety
0141-1187/$ see front matter 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.apor.2008.05.001
55
56
(1)
Z
pf =
E
allX
pf (E
x)fXE (E
x)dE
x
where pf (E
x) = P
F TA
E
IRext |X
(2)
E x ,
= 1 F TA
E 1| X = E
IRext |X
E = Ex for the extreme
|
ir
X
|XE
E = Ex
IRext 1| X
E = Ex is the CPF F TA
1| X
IRext
E
the joint distribution of the time independent random variables X
described in Eq. (1). The mentioned CPF is obtained considering a
ULS equation for the tendon section and the long-term storm sea
states distribution as described in what follows.
The ULS equation employed in this work is based on a section
interaction ratio (IR) presented in Ref. [13]. The ULS is reached
whenever IR > 1. For a generic short-term sea state the interaction
ratio IR in time-domain is given by:
E
IR t , YE X
=
fT (t )
FT
fB (t )
FB
p
pC
(3)
with
fT (t ) = XCE fT,CE + XCA fT,CA (t )
fB (t ) = XCE fB,CE + XCA fB,CA (t )
FT = XIRT XFy
FB = XIRB XFy [4 (1 + t0 /D) / 0.006 D/t0 ]
= 2 + 0.023 D/t0
p = am hv s
q
1
1
2
poel
poel 4 po pel
pC = XIRp
2
(4)
E (t0 /D)3
1 2
po = 2 XFy t0 /D
where
fT,CE
is the tension stress due to static loads,
fT,CA (t ) is the dynamic tension stress due to environmental
forces,
fB,CE
is the bending stress due to static loads,
fB,CA (t ) is the dynamic bending stress due to environmental
forces,
FT
is the tendon axial strength,
FB
is the tendon bending strength,
p
is the acting external pressure,
pC
is the collapse pressure,
pel
is the linear buckling pressure,
po
is the yield pressure,
D
is the tendon pipe external diameter,
t0
is the tendon pipe thickness,
0
is the ovality parameter of the pipe,
E
is the Youngs modulus of the material,
E ,YE
IRmax |X
E
x, y
ir| E
i
E = Ex = exp F TA 1 F st E ir| Ex
ir| X
IRExt |X
(5)
x =
ir| E
E fYE (Ey)dyE.
F st
x, y
E ,YE ir| E
IRExt |X
E
all y
(6)
(TA)
E IRext
i
h
1.0
i
(7)
(TA)
where E IRext
(TA)
(8)
(TA)
(TA)
(9)
where
fIRstext (ir) =
st
dFIR
(ir)
ext
dir
(TA)
st
FIRext (ir) = exp F TA 1.0 FIR
(ir)
ext
st
FIR
(ir) =
ext
Z
E
all y
st
FIR
E =Ey
ext Y
(10)
E f E (Ey)dyE.
ir y
Y
57
58
as described in what follows. In the design criterion each shortterm realization of the tendon interaction ratio IR(t , YE ) has to be
evaluated with the following expression:
Table 1
Characteristics of the TLP hull
fB (t )
p
fT (t )
E
+
+ (p )
IR(t , Y ) = (F )
Columns:
FT
FB
Parameter
(11)
pC
Value
Number
Diameter
High
Distance between axes
Number
Transversal section
where
Pontoons:
fT (t ) = CE fT,CE + CA fT,CA (t )
Draft
Displacement
Vertical position of C. G.
Gyration ratio in pitch and roll
Gyration ratio in yaw
Area exposed to wind
Vertical position
fB (t ) = CE fB,CE + CA fB,CA (t )
(12)
T
E = CE , CA , F , p .
(13)
ntlp X
ns
X
i=1 j=1
(TA)
1.0 E IRext
i 2
ij
wij
(14)
Pntlp Pns
4
16.20 m
43.52 m
51.45 m
4
8.4 m 7.35 m
27.3 m
32070 ton
5.95 m
30.44 m
31.74 m
3000 m2
52.5 m
h i n
o
Ej+1 = Ej + NE (0, )
(15)
59
Table 2
Characteristics of tendons for the three TLPs
Parameter
TLP-01
TLP-02
TLP-03
Number of moorings
Tendon length (m)
External diameter (m)
Internal diameter (m)
Dry weight (kN/m)
Axial stiffness (EA) (kN)
Bending stiffness (EI) (kN m2 )
Pretension (kN)
12
973.9
0.6604
0.5906
5.30
14 249 407
699 002
8826
8
973.9
0.8128
0.7239
8.29
22 278 261
1649 531
13 239
12
473.9
0.6604
0.60325
4.39
11 780 000
588 900
7500
Table 3
Probability description of the random variables [11]
Random variable
XCE
XCA
XIRT
XIRB
XIRp
XFy
1
NF
NF
X
i=1
st ,i
Ei
ir E
x, y
E , YEi
IRext X
(16)
PDF type
Parameters
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Extreme
minimum
value
CoV (%)
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.00
0.95
Parent PDF
(Lognormal)
482.5 MPa
5
25
8
7
13
of extreme value CPFs are presented in [14]. The probabilistic deE is given in Table 3. All reliability
scription of the random variables X
calculations have been made with the FORM technique [3]. Moreover, reliability analysis has been used to identify the most loaded
tendon for each TLP and to size the calibration points in order to
satisfy the target failure probability. Sections at the top, middle,
and base of each tendon have been analyzed. Tendon 4 has been
identified as the most loaded one for the three TLPs. One explanation for tendon 4 overloading is that the storm sea states used
correspond to the dominant incidence direction at the Campeche
Bay [12,14] as depicted in Fig. 3.
A total of 9 calibration points (test cases) have been considered
in the calibration process: sections at the base, middle, and top
of the most loaded tendon of every TLP (ntlp = 3, ns = 3).
The annual probability of failure and their respective reliability
indexes of the 9 calibration points are presented in Table 4. For each
tendon considered, the largest failure probability of the sections is
located at the base. Table 4 also shows both external diameter (D)
and thickness (t0 ) of the calibration points which satisfy the target
annual failure probabilities Pftrg = 1 104 , 1 105 , 1 106 .
It is important to mention that only the tendon thicknesses have
been modified, assuming that small variations in tube thickness do
not modify the tendon internal forces obtained from the dynamic
analyses.
The nine re-sized tendon sections satisfying each target
reliability value have then been used to calibrate the partial safety
60
Table 4
Tendon sections satisfying reliability targets
Calibration point
TLP-01
Base
Middle
Top
TLP-02
Base
Middle
Top
TLP-03
Base
Middle
Top
D (m)
Initial sections
t0 (m)
Pf
Pf = 1 104
Pf = 1 105
Pf = 1 106
0.6604
0.6604
0.6604
0.0349
0.0349
0.0349
1.50537 104
7.84507 105
2.91542 105
3.614
3.780
4.020
0.03566
0.03451
0.03280
0.03946
0.03849
0.03690
0.043352
0.042473
0.041076
0.8128
0.8128
0.8128
0.0445
0.0445
0.0445
8.30646 105
6.61093 105
2.12800 105
3.766
3.822
4.093
0.04405
0.04342
0.04091
0.04882
0.04842
0.04610
0.053654
0.053468
0.051286
0.6604
0.6604
0.6604
0.0286
0.0286
0.0286
3.25639 105
2.11482 105
1.47631 105
3.993
4.095
4.177
0.02716
0.02644
0.02584
0.03009
0.02953
0.02911
0.033188
0.032697
0.032474
Fig. 5. Reliability indexes of tendon sections before and after the calibrating
process for Pftrg = 1 104 .
T
CE = 1.003, CA = 1.223, F = 1.081, p = 1.043 . In
h
i
(TA)
the same figure, the variation of the mean value E IRext
E =
ij
of the long-term extreme IR expected values for the nine tendons section is shown. For the
initial values
of the safety factors
h
i
TA)
E = {1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0}T E IR(ext
ij
when ES converges this function is equal to 1.002. It worth mentioning that the values of the expected extreme IR can be equal
to, above or below 1.0, depending on the set of safety partial factors generated by the random ES algorithm. However, the selected
safety factors vector must satisfy the constrains of the optimization
problem and attain the tolerance margin in the mean square error
function ErCal (E ).
The partial safety factors obtained for each target failure
probability considered in this study are shown in Table 5. It can
be observed that the safety factor associated with stresses due
to dynamic actions presents the greatest value, and conversely,
the factor associated with static effects shows the smallest
value. Partial safety factors obtained from the calibration process
reflect the uncertainty level and the importance of the random
Table 5
Partial safety factors for different target failure probabilities (TA = 100 years)
Pftrg
CE
CA
1 104
1 105
1 106
1.003
1.015
1.013
1.223
1.256
1.302
1.081
1.175
1.203
1.043
1.037
1.035
Table 6
Dispersion of the calibration points reliability indexes for Pftrg = 1 104
Statistic parameters
Mean
Standard deviation
CoV (%)
Reliability index
Before calibration
After calibration
3.929
0.190
4.827
3.748
0.050
1.336
61
6. Conclusions
In this paper an LRFD criterion for structural design of TLP
tendons considering the mooring system in the intact condition
has been presented. The design criterion considers the ULS
condition for tendon sections, taking into account both dynamic
interactions of load effects and the statistics of its associated
extreme response. The proposed design check equation consists
in a long-term response approach and establishes that the
expected value for the 100-yr extreme IR of tendon sections
shall be less than or equal to one. The partial safety factors
have been calibrated through a long-term reliability-based method
considering the storm environmental conditions in deep waters
from the Campeche Bay offshore Mexico. The randomness of loads,
resistance of tendons and analytic limit state models for calculation
of tendon strength has been included in the reliability analysis.
Also, an Evolutionary Strategy-based optimization algorithm has
been developed to find the set of partial safety factors. Different
target reliability values have been considered in order to evaluate
the effect of this key parameter on the partial safety factors.
The results showed that partial safety factors reflect both
uncertainty content and the importance of the random variables
in structural reliability analysis. The calibrated values suggest
that the stresses generated by static loads can be considered
as deterministic variables. Safety factors related to the random
variables with high levels of uncertainty present significant
changes for different target failure probabilities. When the
proposed design criterion is applied to TLP tendons using the
calibrated safety factors associated with different target failure
probabilities, it has been found that the tendon thickness increases
by 10% when Pftrg value changes from 1 10 4 to 1 105 , and by
20% when Pftrg value changes from 1 104 to 1 106 . Another
important aspect to highlight is that tendons designed according
[1] API. Recommended practice for planning, designing and constructing tension
leg platforms, API-RP-2T, 2nd ed. Washington (USA). 1997.
[2] Stahl B. Reliability engineering and risk analysis. In: The Text book design of
fixed offshore structures. USA: Van Nostrand Reinhold Co.; 1985 [Chapter 5].
[3] Melchers RE. Structural reliability analysis and prediction. 2nd ed. England:
Wiley; 2001.
[4] Allen DE. Limit states designA probabilistic study. Canadian Journal of Civil
Engineering 1975;2(1):3649.
[5] CIRIA. Rationalization of safety and serviceability factors in structural codes.
Report no. 63. London: Construction Industry Research and Information
Association; 1977.
[6] Ravindra MK, Galambos TV. Load and resistance factor design for steel. Journal
of Structural Division, ASCE 1978;104(ST9):133753.
[7] Ellingwood B, Galambos TV, MacGregor JC, Cornell CA. Development of a
probability based load criteria for American national standard A58. NBS Special
publication no. 577. US Department of Commerce; 1980.
[8] DNV, Structural design of TLPs (LRFD method). DNV-OS-C105. Norway; 2005.
[9] DNV, DeepC Program, Deep water coupled floater motion analysis, Hovik
(Norway); 2002.
[10] DNV. Guideline for offshore structural reliability analysisexamples for
tension leg platforms. Joint industry project report no. 95-3198. Revision 02.
Hovik (Norway); 1995.
[11] Bhattacharya B, Wang S, Basu R, Ma K, Menon B. Reliability-based combination
of environmental parameters for the design of novel floating structures.
In: Proceedings of the 18th international offshore mechanic and arctic
engineering (OMAE) symposium, vol. I. Saint Johns, Newfoundland (Canada):
ASME; 1999. p. 16.
[12] Cicilia FB, Lima ECP, Sagrilo LVS. Reliability of TLP tendons under storm sea
states. In: Proceedings of the 24th international offshore mechanic and arctic
engineering (OMAE), symposium, Halkidiki (Greece): ASME; 2005. paper
OMAE-67170.
[13] Moan T, Estefen SF, Saevik S, Zimmer RA. Limit states for the ultimate
strength of tubulars subjected to pressure, bending and tension loads. Marine
Structures 1994;7(25):32344.
[14] Cicilia FB. Reliability-based design criterion for a tlp tendon system. D.Sc.
thesis. Brazil: COPPE-UFRJ; 2004 [in Portuguese].
[15] Guenard YV. Application of system reliability analysis to offshore structures.
Report no 71. John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center, Stanford
University; 1984.
[16] Alves LHM. Dynamic analysis of tension leg platform tendons. M.Sc. thesis.
Brazil: COPPE-UFRJ; 1996 [in Portuguese].
[17] Lagaros ND, Papadrakakis M, Kokossalakis G. Structural optimization using
evolutionary algorithms. Computers and Structures 2002;80(7):57189.