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Demand Forecasting
Last Updated: June 2014
AX 2012 R3 / Version 1.0.0
Table of Contents
Demo Overview................................................................................................................................. 3
Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 3
Target Audience.............................................................................................................................. 3
Demo Scenario............................................................................................................................... 3
Background................................................................................................................................. 3
Problems this demo addresses.................................................................................................... 4
Purpose of demo (solutions to pains, benefits, value proposition)..............................................4
List of Personas........................................................................................................................... 4
Technology..................................................................................................................................... 4
Microsoft Technology................................................................................................................... 4
Demo Step-by-Step............................................................................................................................ 5
Conclusion......................................................................................................................................... 9
Glossary and Additional Background Content.................................................................................... 9
Disclaimer........................................................................................................................................ 10
Demo Overview
Introduction
This document and its included script will showcase how you can use the forecasting
capabilities in Microsoft Dynamics AX 2012 R3 and combine them with weather data (historical
and forecast) to adjust the forecast.
When you complete this document and demo script you will be able to:
Adjust the demand forecast from Microsoft Dynamics AX based on the weather forecast.
Important Note: This is not a standard feature, but it is a scenario that can be
implemented on top of the demand forecasting capabilities.
Target Audience
The included script should be used to demonstrate the value of Microsoft Dynamics AX 2012
R3 to a production planner.
The executives that you are presenting to will find value in this script if they are challenged
with inaccurate sales forecasts.
Demo Scenario
Background
This demo focuses on beer sales in southern California. Specifically, we analyze the sales
forecast accuracy of three types of beer (pale ale, IPA, and alcohol-free). By overlaying
historical forecast accuracy with historical weather information, we find trends such as
people leaving a heavily populated San Jose, CA when the weather is hot to go to the beach
in Monterey. After identifying the trends, we apply those trends to our demand forecast,
making future forecasts even more accurate by overlaying the weather forecast for the next
two weeks and automatically suggesting demand forecast adjustments. After this is done, a
production planner can review and approve the final data and publish it back into Microsoft
Dynamics AX.
This script focuses on the following processes:
View and make changes to the statistical forecast based on outside factors such as
the weather forecast.
Demo Step-by-Step
Excel
Excel
View and make changes to the statistical forecast based on outside factors such as the
weather forecast.
Import the adjusted forecast back into the Microsoft Dynamics AX forecast models.
SQL Server Analysis Services SSAS provides the Time Series Mining Model for forecast
calculation.
Excel
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Conclusion
With the new demand forecasting capabilities in Microsoft Dynamics AX 2012 R3, new forecasting
scenarios can more easily be enabled. We now have a lightweight yet powerful demand
forecasting tool that lets users forecast demand based on historical data, adjust the forecasted
demand, and import the values into Microsoft Dynamics AX forecast models. By design, Microsoft
Dynamics AX uses the basic concepts of gathering the historical data, taking that data and
generating a statistical forecast based on that demand, and then giving the user the ability to
easily make changes to those forecasting recommendations in Excel. This lets you extend the outof-box forecasting capabilities and combine them with external data, such as the weather
information, to further increase forecast accuracy.
Demand forecasting is a cost-effective solution that relies on the power of SQL Server Analysis
Services, and it lets you also incorporate data outside of Microsoft Dynamics AX. Finally, to
visualize the forecast, adjust the forecast, and view or create new KPIs, we rely on the extensive
functionality of Excel.
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This model is built in PowerPivot so that everything can be run locally for the demo.
o PowerPivot or tabular models do not support the writeback functionality of the cube.
o Therefore, to demo this capability, the user has to refresh the dataset by clicking the
refresh buttons in PowerPivot.
o This mimics the writeback functionality that would natively be present within the
online analytical processing (OLAP) cube model.
o Besides the need to work around this functional limitation for the purposes of the
demo, the capability demonstrated can be implemented in a cube model by using a
similar set of underlying tables and multidimensional expression (MDX) queries.
Disclaimer
2014 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista, Microsoft Dynamics
and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other
countries. Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others.
The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft
Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it
should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the
accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation.
Sample code included in this presentation is made available AS IS. THE ENTIRE RISK OF THE USE OR THE
RESULTS FROM THE USE OF THIS CODE REMAINS WITH THE USER.
MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE
INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION. NO LICENSE, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, BY ESTOPPEL OR
OTHERWISE, TO ANY INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS IS GRANTED BY THIS PRESENTATION.
Microsoft products are not intended for use in medical, life-saving, or life-sustaining applications.
Microsoft Dynamics is a line of integrated, adaptable business management solutions that enables you and your
people to make business decisions with greater confidence. Microsoft Dynamics works like and with familiar
Microsoft software, automating and streamlining financial, customer relationship and supply chain processes in a
way that helps you drive business success.
U.S. and Canada Toll Free 1-888-477-7989
Worldwide +1-701-281-6500 www.microsoft.com/dynamics
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