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1 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Fundamental Outlook:
Canadian Dollar Lifted by Solid GDP Data ahead of today BoC Decision
Canadian dollar strengthens after release of stronger than expected GDP data. March GDP grew 0.6% mom, above expectation of 0.5% and
stronger than Feb's 0.3%. Q1 GDP annualized also rose more than expected by 6.%. IPPI rose 0.3% mom while RMPI rose 1.7% in April, both
are above expectations. Canadian dollar is given a lift by the data, ahead of tomorrow's BoC rate decision where markets expect BoC to be the
first G7 central bank to start tightening.
Yesterday ECB President Trichet hit back at critics that questioned the bank's independence over its new program to buy governments and
insisted that they're "not printing money." Trichet emphasized that the banks has not "gone beyond our goal of re-establishing a more correct
transmission mechanism of our monetary policy." Trichet also urged governments to " implement rigorously the measures needed to ensure
fiscal sustainability." Bundesbank President weber said that the bond purchase program has "substantial stability risks" and urged a quick end
to the program. Bank of Italy Governor Draghi said "these measures will have to be discontinued as quickly as possible, as soon as the markets
spontaneously resume trading of the securities of the countries involved."
Fed Chairman Bernanke said that Fed will manage its "exit from accommodative policies" in medium term. But the "timing of the exit is likely
to differ across countries," as economic conditions vary. Bernanke didn't elaborate on the outlook for the US economy or monetary policy.
Chicago Fed Evans said "the European situation adds uncertainty to the economic outlook" and he "wouldn't be surprised" if the Fed's policy of
keeping rates low "gets extended just a little bit." Philly Fed Plosser said "how the crisis in Europe ends up affecting the economy will dictate
how we will respond."
On the data front, yesterday, Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.7 in May. Industrial production rose 1.3% mom, 25.9% yoy in April. Housing
starts rose 0.6% yoy in April. Eurozone M3 money supply dropped less than expected by -0.1% you in May. Economic confidence dropped to
98.4 in May. Services confidence also dropped to 3. But consumer confidence was steady at -18 while industrial confidence improved to -6.
Looking ahead, The RBA will most likely keep the cash unchanged at 4.5% after taking it up for 6 times since October 2009 from an
unprecedentedly low level at 3%. At the accompanying statement after May's meeting, RBA governor Glens Stevens hinted a pause in June as
he stated that the rate hikes represent 'a significant adjustment from the very expansionary settings reached a year ago' and have brought
interest rates for most borrowers to 'around average levels'. Furthermore, recent macroeconomic developments, including sovereign crisis in
the Eurozone and its impacts on global economic outlook, heightened sense of risk aversion and moderation in domestic economic data in
Australia, have also suggested the central bank to be on hold. More in RBA To Pause In June With Traders Pricing In Chances Of Rate Cut
2 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
EURUSD
3 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 1.2303
4 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
USD/CHF:
5 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 1.1554
6 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
EUR/CHF:
7 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 1.4213
8 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
GBP/USD:
9 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 1.4213
Position Strategy: Current position: LONG at 1.4532 with a stop 1.4313 target near 1.4723
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1.4230 with stop 1.4318 target 1.3848
As noted before, GBP/USD consolidations from 1.4230 might still extend further and another rise cannot be ruled out. GBP/USD's recovery
from 1.4230 may extends further and with a short term bottom in place at this level. Such recovery might extend further to 38.2% retracement
of 1.5521 to 1.4230 at 1.4723 next. But upside should be limited below 61.8% retracement at 1.5028 and finally bring fall resumption. On the
downside, break of 1.4230 low will confirm down trend resumption and should target 100% projection of 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5521 at
1.3848 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, our bearish view remains unchanged. Fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated
as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at
1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5521 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook
will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature
of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed
and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
10 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
AUD/USD
11 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 0.8453
12 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
USD/JPY
13 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 91.25
Position Strategy: Current position: LONG at 90.97 stop at 89.95 target near 92.60
Enter SHORT on a break of 90.58 with stop 91.76 target 88.25 for 84.81 next
USD/JPY's rebound from 88.97 is still in progress and further rise is still in favor as long as 90.58 minor support holds. Nevertheless, there is
no change in the view that price actions from 88.25 are consolidative in nature. Hence, while strong rebound might be seen, we'd expect upside
to be limited below 93.62 resistance and bring another fall. On the downside, below 90.58 minor support will indicate that recovery from
88.97 is finished and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 88.13/25 support zone.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, considering that USD/JPY failed to sustained above the lower band of the
ascending channel, green line on the chart, now at 90.86 and dropped sharply, we're now slightly favoring the case that down trend from
124.13 is not over. Break of 88.13 support will indicate that rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 94.97 already. The
corrective structure will affirm the bearish case and pave the way to a new low below 84.81. On the upside, however, 94.97 will revive the case
that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.
In the long term picture, we will stay neutral first even if the downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in
weekly oscillators; the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone
and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place
and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
14 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
EUR/JPY
15 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 112.24
16 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
GBP/JPY
17 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 132.58
18 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
USD/CAD
19 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 1.0440
Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 1.0530 with stop 1.0682 target 1.0392
Enter LONG on a clear break of 1.0561 with stop 1.0439 target 1.0850
USD/CAD's fall from 1.0851 is still in progress and further fall is expected towards 61.8% retracement of 1.0109 to 1.0851 at 1.0392 and
below. But at this point, we'd still expect strong support above trend line support, light brown line on the chart, now at 1.0239, and bring
rebound On the upside, above 1.0561 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 1.0851 is over and flip intraday bias back to the upside
for retesting this high first.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, last week's break of 1.0779 resistance confirms that a medium term bottom is
formed at 0.9929 already, with bullish convergence condition in weekly Stochastic and RSI oscillators. We'd stay bullish in USD/CAD and
expect the rebound from 0.9929 to target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 first, with prospect of extending further to 61.8%
retracement at 1.1866 and above. On the downside, break of 1.0109 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly,
the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are
developing into a long term sideway pattern. Hence even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support above 2007 low of 0.9056 to
contain down side. On the other hand, another strong medium term rise should be seen after fall from 1.3063 complete and such rise should
target a test on the upper side of the long term range near to 1.3063.
20 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
GOLD
21 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for GOLD: Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 1216
Position Strategy: Current position : LONG from 1206.9 with a stop at 1196.8 target 1249
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1169.55 with stop 1193 target 1124.3 first for 1044.5 next
No change in Gold outlook, further rise remains in favor as long as 1196.8 minor support holds and Gold would possibly target a retest on
1249.7 high. On the downside, however, below 1196.8 will indicate that recovery has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the
downside for 1169.55 support and below. A firm break below 1169.55 will argue that whole rise from 1044.5 is completed and will turn
outlook bearish for 1124.3 support instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, while the fall from 1249.35 is deep, gold is still holding on to 1169.5 cluster
support as well as long term trend indicator, light green line on the chat, now at 1198.11. However, note that sustained trading below the long
trend indicator will opens up a bearish possibilities. The bearish case is that fall from 1249.7 is the third leg of the three wave consolidation
from 1227.5 , in an irregular flat pattern, and would target a retest on 1044.5 support next. On the upside, a break above 1249.35 minor
resistance will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation
from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.
We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.
22 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
23 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for OIL Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 1216
24 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
25 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The technical outlook for DJI: Tuesday, June the 1st, 2010, level 10149.6
26 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
27 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
ECONOMIC CALANDAR
Tuesday, Jun 1, 2010
28 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
29 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
30 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
31 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
20:30 USD API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 28) -- 616K
23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 28) -- 271.1B
23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 28) -- 1044.8B
23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 28) -- -434.7B
32 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 28) -- 45.9B
06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. M/M May 0.3% 1.0%
06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. Y/Y May 9.6% 10.5%
33 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
34 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
15:00 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 28) -- 2460K
35 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
36 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
37 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
1er juin 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject
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38 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61