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30 mai 2010 [WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]
Weekly Markets Update
1 Weekly Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Risk sentiments improved but how long could it last? BoC, RBA in focus along with NFP
Risk sentiments staged a strong recovery over the week after China denied rumors of reviewing European debt holdings and the State
Administration of Foreign Exchange reaffirmed eurozone as "one of the most important investment markets". DOW extended the rebound
from intraday low of 9774 and managed to close above 10,000 level at 10136. Crude oil also managed to breach 75 level briefly before closing
at 73.97. Major currencies were generally higher against dollar and yen, in particular commodity currencies. However, Euro failed to benefit
from the recovery in risk appetite and has indeed closed lower against other major currencies.
The common currency was sharply lower on Friday after Fitch cut Spain's rating from AAA by one step to AA+ and assigned it a "stable"
outlook. Fitch also said that the "the process of adjustment to a lower level of private sector and external indebtedness will materially reduce
the rate of growth of the Spanish economy over the medium-term." Spain's downgrade has somewhat brought back concern on the fragility of
fiscal health in some Eurozone nations as well as the drag on recovery as austerity measures are implemented. But in any case, Euro was weak
across the board, and dropped -4.19% against Aussie, down -2.83% against Canadian dollar.
Two developments will be the main focuses going ahead in June. Firstly, it's the development in stocks. DOW had another attempt to break
through 10,000 level last week and even breached Feb's low of 9835 briefly. S&P 500 also breached Feb's low of 1044.5 briefly. But buying
quickly emerged that sent stocks higher towards the end of the week. CRB commodity index was also shot higher to 258. However, the
recoveries looked corrective. Also, Friday's selloff argues that recoveries might be over. Traders should be cautious on renewed pressure on
stocks on Monday and on Tuesday when US and UK market returns. In addition, a number of important economic data, including ISM indices
and non-farm payroll, will likely rock the markets either way.
Secondly, important events are scheduled from Canada and Australia, which will be crucial on whether commodity currencies could hold on to
their resilience. Markets' expectation on whether BoC will hike this week was as volatile as the financial markets. Markets were pricing in as
low as 40% chance at one point on Tuesday of a 25bps hike from BoC this week. But traders then increased bet as stocks rebounded and after
OECD urged BoC to take immediate action to remove policy accommodations. At the end of the week, markets are pricing in roughly 70% of
rate hike. In any case, a rate hike from BoC is not a done deal. We'd like to point out again that Canadian dollar's recent strength, in particular
against other commodity currencies, is built on expectation of rate hike in June. The CAD will be heavily sold off if BoC disappoints.
RBA will also meet this week. The banks has raised borrowing cost six times in the last seven meetings. Markets are generally expecting a
pause this month as rates are now close to "average" levels. Nevertheless, such expectation indeed started in early May, before Eurozone debt
problems intensified and before the stock market fall. In addition, there are concerns over the future path of Chinese growth. On May 4,
Australian all ordinaries index closed at 4753 level and since then the index dropped to as low as 4194, 12% lower, before rebounding to close
at 4479 last week. Meanwhile 4479 is also a significant 11% lower comparing to April's high of 5048. There were talk that RBA might regret
the rate hike in May. In any case, expectation on the next move will be volatilize on RBA's statement, so is Aussie.
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 1.2270
Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT: Have been stopped on LONG position from 1.2418 at 1.2295
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1.2143 with stop 1.2295 target 1.20 first for 1.1928 next
Enter LONG if we break 1.2450 with a stop 1.2295 target 1.2680
The EUR/USD stayed in tight range above 1.2143 with choppy movement last week as consolidations continued. More sideway trading cannot
be ruled out. We got two scenarios for the EUR/USD for now. 1) On the upside: We are monitoring a potential 'double bottom' formation in
EUR/USD at 1.2140/50 and immediate trend line resistance at 1.2415/50 area with the 'neckline' for the double bottom pattern is at 1.2680
and, if broken, suggests a measured move objective to about 1.3200 also with got potential bullish divergence condition in RSI and Stochastic
oscillators and AC above the signal line. 2) On the downside: We are monitoring a potential 'triangular' formation in EUR/USD with a bases at
1.2140/50 and immediate higher band of the triangle now at 1.2444. This level match also with the lower band of the descending channel and
serve as a trend line resistance, green line on the chart. On a break below 1.2143, lower than the base of the ‘triangle, suggests a measured
move objective to about 1.1616 with a minimum target at 1.1818. We may note that we may got divergence condition in RSI & Stocastic
oscillators when a markets is forming a ‘triangle’ formation giving by the way a false bullish signal.
Personally I don’t like the loss of momentum for the upside and the pullback of last Friday. I stay neutral for the moment and the second
scenario seems to be the more likely and even in case of another rise, we must monitored the upside that may be limited by 38.2%
retracement of 1.3691 to 1.2143 at 1.2734 and may bring fall resumption. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2143 will confirm down trend
resumption and should target 1.2 psychological level first
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are treated as correction to long term up trend from
0.8823 and fall form 1.5144 is the third leg of such correction. Further decline should be seen to 1.1639 key support level and possibly further
to 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5144 at 1.1433. On the upside, break of 1.3266 resistance is needed to be the first signal of
bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, considering the five wave impulsive structure of the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of
1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to
1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209
key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 1.1589
Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT :

Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1.1447 with stop 1.1545 target 1.1244
Enter LONG if we break 1.1697 with a stop 1.1545 target near 1.1963
USD/CHF edged higher to 1.1696 but faced resistance at 161.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1673 and turned sideway.
Some more consolidations would possibly be seen initially this week but after all, such consolidation is expected to be relatively brief as long as
1.1447 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 1.1673 projection level will target medium term resistance of 1.1963 next, 200%
projection at 1.1966. However, break of 1.1447 will indicate that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours RSI
and Stochastic oscillators. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen towards 1.0922/1244 support zone before staging another rise.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, as noted before, rise from 0.9916 is treated as resumption of the long term
rise from 2008 low of 0.9634. Such rise is expected to have a test on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone first and then 100% projection of 0.9634 to
1.2296 from 0.9916 at 1.2578. On the downside, break of 1.0897 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Otherwise,
we'll stay bullish.
In the bigger picture, In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish divergence condition in
monthly RSI & Stochastic. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634. Such development will favor the case that long term down
trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 1.4222
Position Strategy:Current position : FLAT Have been stop on my short position from 1.413 at 1.4292
Enter LONG if we break 1.4292 with a stop 1.4138 target near 1.4587 or Enter LONG near 1.4005/10 with a stop 1.3950 target near 1.4587
EUR/CHF dropped sharply to as low as 1.4109 last week. While such fall was much deeper than expected, there is no change in the view that
price action from 1.4587 should be corrective in nature. Also, considering risk of another round of SNB intervention, we'd expect strong
support above 1.4 psychological level to bring rebound even in case of another fall. On the upside, above 1.4312 minor resistance will suggest
that such pull back is completed and flip intraday bias back to the upside for another recovery.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place above 1.4 psychological level and
the cross has now entered into another consolidation phase. However, note that the current rebound is not strong enough to warranted a
reversal of the long term down trend yet. We'd expect strong resistance at 1.4846 to limit upside. The cross should revisit 1.4 level again some
time in medium term.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run. Break of 1.5138 is needed to confirm reversal.
Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 1.4461
Position Strategy: Current position: LONG at 1.4532 with a stop 1.4313 target near 1.4723
GBP/USD's recovery from 1.4230 extends further last week and with a short term bottom in place, more consolidations would possibly be seen
first. Such recovery might extend further to 38.2% retracement of 1.5521 to 1.4230 at 1.4723 next. But upside should be limited below 61.8%
retracement at 1.5028 and finally bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.4230 low will confirm down trend resumption and should
target 100% projection of 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5521 at 1.3848 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, our bearish view remains unchanged. Fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated
as resumption of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Such fall should target 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043 at
1.2310 after taking out 1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.5521 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook
will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature
of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed
and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 0.8472
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT:

Enter LONG on a clear break of 0.8568 with a stop 0.8525 target 0.8686/.8715
Enter SHORT on a break of 0.8066 with stop 0.8187 target 0.7702
Despite edging lower to 0.8066, AUD/USD received strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.8107 and rebounded. A
short term bottom should in place and we'd see more consolidations above 0.8066 going forward. Another rise cannot be ruled out but we'd
expect strong resistance at 0.8715 (50% retracement of 0.9380 to 0.8066 at 0.8723) to limit upside and bring fall resumption finally. On the
downside, below 0.8200 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8066 low first.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, while the decline from 0.9380 is steep, it's still treated as a correction to
medium term up trend from 0.6008. Hence, we're expecting strong support from 0.7702 (50% retracement of 0.6008 to 0.9404 at 0.7706), at
least initially, to bring rebound. But after all, break of 0.8715 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 0.9380 is completed. Otherwise,
more downside would remain in favor.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 91.08
Position Strategy: Current position: LONG at 90.97 stop at 89.95 target near 92.60
Enter SHORT on a break of 89.81 with stop 90.67 target 88.13 for 84.81 next
USD/JPY's recovery from 88.97 extended further to as high as 91.39 last week. The development suggests that fall from 93.62 is completed.
Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 88.25 are consolidative in nature. Hence, while strong rebound might be
seen initially this week, we'd expect upside to be limited below 93.62 resistance and bring another fall. On the downside, below 89.81 minor
support will indicate that recovery from 88.97 is finished and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 88.13/25 support zone.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, considering that USD/JPY failed to sustained above the lower band of the
ascending channel, green line on the chart, now at 90.86 and dropped sharply, we're now slightly favoring the case that down trend from
124.13 is not over. Break of 88.13 support will indicate that rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 94.97 already. The
corrective structure will affirm the bearish case and pave the way to a new low below 84.81. On the upside, however, 94.97 will revive the case
that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.
In the long term picture, we will stay neutral first even if the downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in
weekly oscillators; the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone
and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place
and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 111.76
Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT ,

Enter LONG on a clear break of 114.39 stop at 112.45 target 116.10
EUR/JPY edged lower to 108.82 last week but recovered since then. With a short term bottom in place, with bullish convergence condition in 4
hours Stochastic and RSI, further recovery might be seen initially this week, towards 38.2% retracement of 127.88 to 108.82 at 116.10 on a
break above 114.39 minor resistance. Nevertheless, such recovery is treated as a correction in the larger down trend only. Hence, we'd expect
strong resistance below 61.8% retracement at 120.60 to limit upside and finally bring fall resumption. On the downside, decisive break of
108.82 will target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, fall from 139.21 is treated as resumption of long term down trend from 2007
high of 169.96 and should target 61.8% projection of 169.96 to 112.10 from 139.21 at 103.45 which is close to 100 psychological level. Though,
we'd expect strong support between 2000 low of 88.96 and 100 psychological level to contain downside and bring reversal. On the upside,
break of 127.88 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (2000 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave
structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. It should develop into a three wave
correction with first wave completed at 112.10, second wave completed at 139.21. The third falling leg is now in progress but would be
contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 131.71
Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT, Have been stopped on LONG position from 132.83 at 131.30
Enter LONG on a clear break of 133.20 stop at 132.24 target 134.06 first for 135.90 next
GBP/JPY's recovery from 126.73 extended further to as high as 133.20 last week but lost momentum then and retreated. Considering that a
short term bottom is formed at 126.73 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours Stochastic and RSI, further rebound would still be seen as
long as 129.03 minor support holds. Above 133.20 will target 38.2% retracement of 145.94 to 126.73 at 134.06 and above. Nevertheless, rise
from 126.73 is treated as a correction to recent decline from 145.94 only. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance between the upper band of the
descending channel, green line on the chart (now at 138.38) and 61.8% retracement 138.60 to limit upside and bring fall resumption. On the
downside, below 129.03 minor support will argue that such recovery has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 126.73
low first.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, no change to our bearish view rebound from 118.81, which is treated as
correction in the larger down trend from 2007 high of 251.09, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is tentatively treated as
resumption of such long term down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to
100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 145.94 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated
as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of
the correction from 118.81.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 1.0540
Position Strategy: Current position : SHORT at 1.0530 with stop 1.0682 target 1.0392
Enter LONG on a clear break of 1.0643 with stop 1.0534 target 1.0850
Despite edging higher to 1.0851, USD/CAD reversed as dropped sharply to as low as 1.0443 last week. A short term top is in place at 1.0851
with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours Stochastic and RSI. More correction could still be seen as long as 1.0643 minor resistance holds,
towards 61.8% retracement of 1.0109 to 1.0851 at 1.0392 and below. But strong support should be seen above trend line support, light brown
line on the chart, now at 1.0239, and bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.0643 will indicate that pull back from 1.0851 is over and bring flip
intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this high first.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, last week's break of 1.0779 resistance confirms that a medium term bottom is
formed at 0.9929 already, with bullish convergence condition in weekly Stochastic and RSI oscillators. We'd stay bullish in USD/CAD and
expect the rebound from 0.9929 to target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 first, with prospect of extending further to 61.8%
retracement at 1.1866 and above. On the downside, break of 1.0109 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly,
the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are
developing into a long term sideway pattern. Hence even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support above 2007 low of 0.9056 to
contain down side. On the other hand, another strong medium term rise should be seen after fall from 1.3063 complete and such rise should
target a test on the upper side of the long term range near to 1.3063.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 1212.9
Position Strategy: Current position : LONG from 1206.9 with a stop at 1196.8 target 1249
Enter SHORT on a clear break of 1169.55 with stop 1193 target 1124.3 first for 1044.5 next
Gold's recovery from extended further as high as 1218.35 last week before turning sideway. Further rise remains in favor as long as 1196.8
minor support holds and gold would possibly target a retest on 1249.7 high. On the downside, however, below 1196.8 will indicate that
recovery has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1169.55 support and below. A firm break below 1169.55 will
argue that whole rise from 1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for 1124.3 support instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, while the fall from 1249.35 is deep, gold is still holding on to 1169.5 cluster
support as well as long term trend indicator, light green line on the chat, now at 1198.11. However, note that sustained trading below the long
trend indicator will opens up a bearish possibilities. The bearish case is that fall from 1249.7 is the third leg of the three wave consolidation
from 1227.5 , in an irregular flat pattern, and would target a retest on 1044.5 support next. On the upside, a break above 1249.35 minor
resistance will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation
from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.
We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.
CrudeOIL July future contract
The technical outlook for OIL Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 74.15
Current position : FLAT,

Enter LONG on a clear break of 74.71 with stop 72.74 target 79
Crude oil's rebound extended further to as high as 75.71 last week. Though, there is no change in the view that such rebound is a correction in
the larger decline. While some more rise might be seen, upside should be limited by 50.0% retracement of 87.12 to 67.15 at 77.08 and bring
fall resumption. Below 71.20 minor support will indicate that rebound from 67.15 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside
for retesting this low first. Break of 67.15 should target first the 64.24 low and 60 psychological level next, which is close to 50% retracement
of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the break of 70.83/71.09 support zone affirms our view that whole medium
term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.12 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be
seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.12 at 60.16 at least. Also, we count the rebound from 33.2 as the second leg of the whole correction that
started at 2008 at 147.27. On the upside, break of resistance at 81.26 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.12 is completed.
Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance
zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.12 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd
anticipate an eventual break of 60.16 target and may bring 58.98 first for 54.25 next and a final target between 51.23 and 49.73.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Sunday, May the 30th, 2010, level 10119.1
Current position: LONG at 10201.70 stop at 10007 target near 10326.4

Enter SHORT on a clear break of 9756 with stop 9866 target 9557
DOW's rebound from 9756.15 was admittedly stronger than expected but momentum was not too convincing yet. The intraday chart shows
only a 3 waves pattern up and such a recovery may be corrective in nature at this point. As has noted before we are now in the third leg of the
correction, in C of II, after rebound from 9865.65 failed to sustain above the Fibonacci retracement at 10865 and pullback from this level. Two
scenarios is possible the current rebound is only a correction and a we may test again the 9756.15 low and a break below this level will
confirm the continuation of the third leg of the correction in direction of 9557. Otherwise for the upside, as has said previously, we got a
potential “double bottom pattern” for the DOW. We may move above 10916.15 to trigger the” double bottom” pattern and the break above of
10201.65 was the first sign of bottoming. We need now to close over 10326.4 the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement from 9989.9 to 1205.15, to
confirm the continuation of the rally and a break above 10505.15 will be the second sign of the end of the correction.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50%
retracement rally was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up are only Major waves 1-2-3 of
Primary wave I of Cycle wave I of this bull market. The downtrend from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 of I conclude with alternation with
the Jun/July downtrend, and hold the 10% correction, and following our count: we have ended wave I at 11196.65 and we are now in wave II
that may be ended or have a potential to go as far as 9557. For remember Wave I is the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will
be followed by a wave II in correction that may be very profound.
TRACK Since April

RECORD 16th, 2010
Current Closed P&L Nb of
Currency Long/Short Open price Price Stop Target Open P&L pips Pips Total P&L pips trades
EUR/USD Flat 0 974 974 14
CHF/USD Flat 0 521 521 10
EUR/CHF Flat 0 -245 -245 5
GBP/USD Long 1.4532 1.4461 1.4313 1.4723 -71 318 247 10
AUD/USD Flat 0 556 556 11
USD/JPY Long 90.97 91.08 89.95 92.6 11 255 266 8
EUR/JPY Flat 0 795 795 9
GBP/JPY Flat 0 154 154 10
USD/CAD Short 1.053 1.054 1.0682 1.0392 -10 530 520 11
TOTAL -70 3,858 3,788 88
Current Open P&L Nb of
Markets Long/Short Open price Price Stop points Close P&L pts Total P&L pts trades
Gold Long 1206.9 1212.9 1196.8 1249 6.00 -86.3 -80.30 4
Oil Flat 0.00 10.55 10.55 10
Dow Jones Long 10201.7 10119.1 10007 10326.4 -82.60 1365.1 1,282.50 6
Monthly
recap
Since April 16 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 T
EUR/USD 247 727
CHF/USD -34 555
EUR/CHF -83
GBP/USD -56 642
AUD/USD -145 701
USD/JPY 161 94
EUR/JPY -31 826
GBP/JPY -97 251
USD/CAD 149 381
TOTAL 194 4094 4
Gold -11.3 -75 -8
Oil 1.71 8.84 1
Dow Jones 533.6 831.5 1
ECONOMIC CALANDAR
Monday, May 31, 2010
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
00:25 USD Fed's Bernanke ECB's Trichet Speak at Bank of -- --

Korea Conference
00:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M May -- 0.4%
00:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation Y/Y May -- 2.9%
01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales M/M Apr -- 0.9%
01:10 USD Fed's Charles Evans Speaks at Bank of Korea -- --

Conference
01:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q1 -16400M -17459M
01:30 AUD Net Exports of GDP Q1 -0.2 -1.3
01:30 AUD Company Operating Profit Q/Q Q1 3.0% 2.2%
01:30 AUD Inventories Q1 0.5% 0.2%
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Apr 0.5% 0.5%
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit Y/Y Apr 2.4% 2.1%
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Apr 0.8% 0.8%
02:00 AUD Rismark Australian Median House Price May -- 450.0K
03:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence May -- 49.5
03:20 JPY BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa Speaks in -- --

Tokyo Japan
04:00 AUD Quarterly Wage Agreements Q4 -- 3.5
04:00 JPY Vehicle Production Y/Y Apr -- 71.2%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Apr 6.6% -2.4%
05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts Apr 0.840M 0.854M
05:00 JPY Construction Orders Y/Y Apr -- 42.3%
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. 3M Apr -0.2% -0.1%
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. Y/Y Apr -0.3% -0.1%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y May 1.7% 1.5%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator May 0.20 0.23
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence May 100.6 100.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence May F -18 -18
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence May -7 -7
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence May 6 5
09:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M May P 0.3% 0.4%
09:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) Y/Y May P 1.6% 1.5%
09:00 EUR Italian HICP M/M May P 0.2% 0.9%
09:00 EUR Italian HICP Y/Y May P 1.7% 1.6%
09:30 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks at Bank of Korea -- --

Conference
12:30 CAD Quarterly GDP Annualized Q1 5.8% 5.0%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Mar 0.5% 0.3%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Apr -0.3% -0.4%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Apr 1.0% 0.8%
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index May -- 59.8
23:50 JPY Loans & Discounts Corp Y/Y Apr -- -3.2%
Tuesday, Jun 1, 2010
01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. M/M Apr 0.3% 0.3%
01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Apr -5.0% 15.3%
01:30 AUD Building Approvals Y/Y Apr 34.0% 51.6%
02:25 USD Fed's Evans Noyer Speak at Bank of Korea -- --

Conference
04:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate 4.50% 4.50%

Decision
05:00 JPY Vehicle Sales Y/Y May -- 33.5%
05:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q1 0.7% 0.7%
05:45 CHF GDP Y/Y Q1 1.8% 0.6%
06:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Apr 1.0% -2.4%
06:00 EUR German Retail Sales Y/Y Apr -0.7% 2.7%
06:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR Y/Y May -- 29.4%
06:45 EUR French PPI M/M Apr 0.6% 0.6%
06:45 EUR French PPI Y/Y Apr 3.3% 2.0%
06:45 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q Q1 F -- -0.1%
07:30 CHF SVME-PMI May 64.4 65.9
07:45 EUR Italian PMI Manufacturing May 53.8 54.3
07:50 EUR French PMI Manufacturing May F 56.2 56.2
07:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing May F 58.3 58.3
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change May -18K -68K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. May 7.8% 7.8%
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing May F 55.9 55.9
08:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. Apr 8.9% 8.8%
08:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing May 57.8 58.0
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Apr 10.0% 10.0%
13:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.25%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing May 59.4 60.4
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid May 72.5 78.0
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Apr 0.0% 0.2%
14:30 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity May -- 21.1%
16:00 EUR Italian New Car Registrations Y/Y May -- -15.7%
18:00 EUR Italian Budget Balance (EUR) May -- -14.8B
18:00 EUR Italian Budget Balance (EUR) (YTD) May -- -41.9B
21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (MAY 30) -- -45
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y May -- 2.9%
Wednesday, Jun 2, 2010
01:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q1 0.6% 0.9%
01:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q1 2.6% 2.7%
03:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price May -- 4.9%
07:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Apr -- 4.5%
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Apr 49.5K 48.9K
08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit Apr 0.3B 0.3B
08:30 GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings Apr 0.6B 0.3B
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Apr F -- 0.0%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Apr F -- 3.3%
08:30 GBP PMI Construction May 58.0 58.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Apr 0.7% 0.6%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Apr 2.6% 0.9%
11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 28) -- 11.3%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y May -- -71.1%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Apr 6.0% 5.3%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales Y/Y Apr -- 23.5%
20:30 USD API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 28) -- 616K
20:30 USD API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 28) -- -3194K
20:30 USD API U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 28) -- 1518K
21:00 USD Domestic Vehicle Sales May 8.90M 8.78M
21:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales May 11.40M 11.21M
23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index May -- 52.3
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q1 -9.6% -17.3%
23:50 JPY Capital Spending excl Software Q1 -2.7% -18.5%
23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 28) -- 271.1B
23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 28) -- 1044.8B
23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 28) -- -434.7B
23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 28) -- 45.9B
Thursday, Jun 3, 2010
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Apr -800M -2082M
01:30 JPY BoJ's Miyako Suda Speaks in Wakayama City -- --

Japan
06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. M/M May 0.3% 1.0%
06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. Y/Y May 9.6% 10.5%
06:45 EUR French Mainland Unemployment Change Q1 -- 145K
06:45 EUR French ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate Q1 -- 9.6%
06:45 EUR French ILO Unemployment Rate Q1 10.1% 10.0%
07:45 EUR Italian PMI Services May 55.0 54.5
07:50 EUR French PMI Services May F 61.9 61.9
07:55 EUR German PMI Services May F 53.7 53.7
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services May F 56.0 56.0
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Composite May F 56.2 56.2
08:30 GBP PMI Services May 55.6 55.3
08:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) May -- $561M
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.1% 0.0%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Apr -0.1% -0.1%
11:30 USD Fed's Dennis Lockhart to Speaks in Atlanta -- --

Georgia
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change May 55K 32K
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q1 F 3.6% 3.6%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q1 F -1.7% -1.6%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 29) 450K 460K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (MAY 22) -- 4607K
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite May 55.8 55.4
14:00 USD Factory Orders Apr 1.5% 1.3%
14:30 USD ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y May -- 0.8%
15:00 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 28) -- 2460K
15:00 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 28) -- -203K
15:00 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 28) -- -267K
15:15 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks in Detroit -- --

Michigan
16:15 USD Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks in Springfield -- --

Massachusetts
17:15 USD Fed's Thomas Hoenig Speaks in Bartlesville -- --

Oklahoma
Friday, Jun 4, 2010
-- GBP New Car Registrations Y/Y May -- 11.5%
04:00 USD Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner Attends -- --

G-20 in South Korea
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. Q/Q Q1 P 0.2% 0.2%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP s.a. Y/Y Q1 P 0.5% 0.5%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Household Consumption Q/Q Q1 P -0.1% 0.0%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Gross Fixed Capital Q/Q Q1 P -1.1% -1.3%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Government Expenditure Q/Q Q1 P 0.3% -0.1%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment May 20.0K 108.7K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate May 8.0% 8.1%
11:00 CAD Participation Rate May -- 67.2
11:00 CAD Full Time Employment Change May -- 43.8
11:00 CAD Part Time Employment Change May -- 64.8
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Apr -1.5% 12.2%
12:30 USD Change in Non-Farm Payrolls May 500K 290K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate May 9.8% 9.9%
12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls May 170K 231K
12:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls May 35K 44K
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning M/M May 0.1% 0.0%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earning Y/Y May -- 1.6%
12:30 USD Average Weekly HoursMay 34.1 34.1
13:30 USD Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks Braselton -- --

Georgia
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI May 59.5 58.7
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30 mai 2010 [WEEKLY MARKETS UPDATE]

Weekly Markets Update

Position Strategy: Current position : FLAT :

Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT:

Position Strategy: Current position: FLAT ,

CrudeOIL July future contract

Current position : FLAT,

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

Current position: LONG at 10201.70 stop at 10007 target near 10326.4

TRACK Since April

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

00:25 USD Fed's Bernanke ECB's Trichet Speak at Bank of -- --

00:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M May -- 0.4%

00:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation Y/Y May -- 2.9%

01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales M/M Apr -- 0.9%

01:10 USD Fed's Charles Evans Speaks at Bank of Korea -- --

01:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q1 -16400M -17459M

01:30 AUD Net Exports of GDP Q1 -0.2 -1.3

01:30 AUD Company Operating Profit Q/Q Q1 3.0% 2.2%

01:30 AUD Inventories Q1 0.5% 0.2%

01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Apr 0.5% 0.5%

01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit Y/Y Apr 2.4% 2.1%

01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Apr 0.8% 0.8%

02:00 AUD Rismark Australian Median House Price May -- 450.0K

03:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence May -- 49.5

03:20 JPY BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa Speaks in -- --

04:00 AUD Quarterly Wage Agreements Q4 -- 3.5

04:00 JPY Vehicle Production Y/Y Apr -- 71.2%

05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Apr 6.6% -2.4%

05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts Apr 0.840M 0.854M

05:00 JPY Construction Orders Y/Y Apr -- 42.3%

08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. 3M Apr -0.2% -0.1%

08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. Y/Y Apr -0.3% -0.1%

09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y May 1.7% 1.5%

09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator May 0.20 0.23

09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence May 100.6 100.6

09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence May F -18 -18

09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence May -7 -7

09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence May 6 5

09:00 EUR Italian HICP M/M May P 0.2% 0.9%

09:00 EUR Italian HICP Y/Y May P 1.7% 1.6%

09:30 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks at Bank of Korea -- --

12:30 CAD Quarterly GDP Annualized Q1 5.8% 5.0%

12:30 CAD GDP M/M Mar 0.5% 0.3%

12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Apr -0.3% -0.4%

23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index May -- 59.8

23:50 JPY Loans & Discounts Corp Y/Y Apr -- -3.2%

Tuesday, Jun 1, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous

01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. M/M Apr 0.3% 0.3%

01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Apr -5.0% 15.3%

01:30 AUD Building Approvals Y/Y Apr 34.0% 51.6%

02:25 USD Fed's Evans Noyer Speak at Bank of Korea -- --

04:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate 4.50% 4.50%

05:00 JPY Vehicle Sales Y/Y May -- 33.5%

05:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q1 0.7% 0.7%

05:45 CHF GDP Y/Y Q1 1.8% 0.6%

06:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Apr 1.0% -2.4%

06:00 EUR German Retail Sales Y/Y Apr -0.7% 2.7%

06:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR Y/Y May -- 29.4%

06:45 EUR French PPI M/M Apr 0.6% 0.6%

06:45 EUR French PPI Y/Y Apr 3.3% 2.0%