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Game Changer
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Humanitarian Bombs
transitory.
As it unfolded, Bin Laden was not brought how a young half black/half
Another victim of Fed polwhite Harvard Law School
in at all, neither dead nor alive.
icy was the dollars position as
graduate worked his way up
the worlds reserve currency.
from a community organizer
Proposals were being floated for the establishment of a
in Chicago to become Commander in Chief of the worlds
new global currency standard, and major countries such
most powerful country; how he would help plan the inas Brazil, China, Russia and India were already cutting
genious strategy that would finally bring in the notorious
out Uncle Sam as the middle man by doing deals directly,
terrorist Osama bin Laden, dead or alive.
using the coin of their own realm.
As it unfolded, Bin Laden was not brought in at all,
All in all, Obamas April 2011 campaign kickoff ended
neither dead nor alive. Rather, according to the initial
the month on down notes. First it was Trump stealing the
White House account, a crack team of US commandos
headlines with the birther issue and his relentless attacks
staged a crack-of-dawn raid on Osamas fortified, walled
on Obamas economic and geopolitical incompetence.
compound somewhere in Pakistan. A fierce 40-minute
Then there was the Feds April 27th PR ploy. Intended
firefight ensued in which a armed Bin Laden, despite havto prove its new transparency, it proved only how transing cravenly used his wife as a human shield, was killed.
parently inept and self-defeating its Chairman and his
His body was washed in accordance with Islamic custom,
policies were.
and dropped overboard from a US aircraft carrier into the
Arabian Sea.
OBOMBA
Typical of the world media coverage was:
The next bomb to drop on the Obama campaign was the
Obama watched Bin Laden die on live
humanitarian bomb dropped by NATO upon the home
video
as shoot-out beamed to White House
of Muammar Qaddafis son, killing him and three of his
children.
President Obama was watching on a TV screen as
The bungled attempt to assassinate Qaddafi, who had
a commando gunned down Osama bin Laden. Via
been visiting his son, was condemned by Russia, brought
a video camera fixed to the helmet of a U.S. Navy
recriminations against NATO from other UN members for
Seal, the leader of the free world saw the terror
overstepping the UN mandate, and called the legality of
chief shot in the left eye.
the air strike into question. With a groundswell of public
The Seal then carried out what is known
sympathy for Qaddafis murdered grandchildren building
in the military as a double tap shooting him
around the world, the very purpose and future of the enagain, probably in the chest, to make certain he
tire mission was being called into question.
was dead.
While the leaders of France, the UK and US had all
The footage of the battle in Bin Ladens Pakideclared that Qaddafi had to go (either voluntarily or othstani hideout which played out like an episode
erwise), senselessly murdered grandchildren didnt sit well
of 24 is said to show one of his wives acting as
with the public at large, and even the compliant media were
a human shield to protect him as he blasted away
unable to put a positive spin on the collateral damage.
with an AK47 assault rifle.
She died, along with three other men, includFrom Osama to Obama Beset on all sides, poll numing one of Bin Ladens sons. Within hours, the Al
bers plummeting and the newly fired-up Obama camQaeda leaders body was buried at sea. (UK Daily
paign express moving in reverse, whether it was the result
Mail, 3 May 2011)
of providence, coincidental timing or a brilliant political
master stroke, the campaign momentum suddenly rockBut by the next day, the script was already beginning to
eted forward on the strength of a single event.
change. There was no firefight. No one fired on the Navy
On Sunday evening, May 1st, President Obama hit
SEALs in Bin Ladens house. Only one of Osamas associthe airwaves: Good evening. Tonight, I can report to the
ates was armed, and he was killed in an adjacent guestAmerican people and to the world that the United States
house at the start of the operation.
has conducted an operation that killed Osama Bin Laden,
An unarmed Osama did not use his wife as a human
the leader of Al Qaeda, and a terrorist whos responsible
shield. What was at first described as an elaborate and forfor the murder of thousands of innocent men, women, and
tified million-dollar compound was neither elaborate nor
children.
fortified (apart from the wall around it, not uncommon in
And so began Obama vs. Osama: a thrilling tale of
a Muslim country).
Eugene Gregan
policy but also on the economy, and independents a key voting bloc in the November 2012
presidential election caused the overall uptick
in support by sliding back to Obama after fleeing
for much of the past two years.
Comfortable majorities of the public now call
Obama a strong leader who will keep America
safe. Nearly three-fourths 73 percent also
now say they are confident that Obama can effectively handle terrorist threats. And he improved
his standing on Afghanistan, Iraq and the United
States relationships with other countries.
Despite a sluggish recovery from the Great
Recession, 52 percent of Americans now approve
of Obamas stewardship of the economy, giving
him his best rating on that issue since the early
days of his presidency; 52 percent also now like
how hes handling the nations stubbornly high 9
percent unemployment. (11 May 2011)
Whatever the motivation behind taking out Osama, the
immediate effect upon Obamas poll numbers instantly
reshaped the Presidential race. With his approval rating
at a two-year high, Barack Obama took on the mantle
of strong leader, tough on terror and a protector of the
people.
PRESTO CHANGE-O!
After weeks of Obama vs. Osama monopolizing the news,
the boisterous Republican presidential hopefuls were suddenly either muted or in retreat. Mike Huckabee, who had
been leading the carefully watched Iowa polls, announced
he wouldnt run. Next to announce his non-candidacy was
Donald Trump, who, just days before the Osama hit, had
been center stage, hogging the headlines and seemingly
posing a real threat to Obama.
So unpromising were the challengers that former First
Lady Laura Bush was trying to convince Cheri Daniels,
wife of little-known Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, to
encourage her husband to seek the GOP nomination, despite a well-known sex scandal in her own past.
GOP Search Continues
A new Gallup poll shows that the Republican presidential race is remarkably fluid in the wake of
decisions by Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump
not to run.
The GOP frontrunners are, not surprisingly,
those figures with the highest name ID. Mitt Romney polls at 20 percent among potential primary
voters, followed by Sarah Palin at 18 percent and
group attack the American homeland or pull off a substantial strike against a US foreign installation, it will be
exploited as a causus belli to take the nation to war.
Whether real (the terror strike against the USS Cole
in Yemen) or contrived (the Gulf of Tonkin incident and
the claim of the existence of Saddam Husseins weapons of mass destruction that, respectively, took America
to war against Vietnam and Iraq), the fact or even the
threat of terror in the months before Election Day will
serve as a uniting force. Terror-fied Americans will rally
round the flag and look to the President for leadership
and protection.
10
predictable inefficiency.
The third major plank of the
What accounted for the millions of Joe
The end result of their
Republican platform was to not
and
Jane
Does
who
supported
policies
that
Roadmap would be to steer
only keep in place the Bush-inithey obviously stood to lose from?
as much tax money as possible
tiated and Obama-perpetuated
away from the public sector and
tax policy that gave breaks to the
into the private sector. It was passionately held GOP Gospel
richest, but under the Ryan plan, to further lower the top
that corporations operated more efficiently than governtax rate from 36 percent to 25 percent. Incredible as it may
ment bureaucracy. While perhaps attractive in principle,
sound, the GOP genuinely believed that the more the very
in practice there was ample evidence demonstrating that
rich made and the less they paid, the better off everyone
privatization had its limits. (Private Prisons Found to Ofelse would be.
fer Little in Savings, NYT, 18 May 2011)
The Republican platform boiled down to: What can
And when it came to managing privatized social secuwe do to make the biggest bigger and the richest richer?
rity investments, the pitch to the public was that Wall Street
Not surprisingly, for the small percentile that stood to benwas best equipped to handle their money. It was as though
efit, the Republican platform was attractive. But very surthe Panic of 08 had never happened and the Wall Street
prisingly, the GOP support base extended far beyond big
Mob and the Banking Bandits responsible for the greatest
business and the very rich to a rich mix of all-collar/allfinancial crisis since the Great Depression had miraculouscolor ordinary Americans.
ly become trustworthy and prescient.
The Wannabes What accounted for the millions of
But just in case the best and brightest brains on the
average Joe and Jane Does who supported policies that
Street couldnt resist their lives of crime and/or once again
they obviously stood to lose from? While it was a comproved incapable of making sound financial judgments, the
plex question with no simple answer, at least a part of it
GOP attached a no risk clause to their Roadmap. If
was the wannabe factor the ability of the average Joe
contributors put money into government-approved personal
or Jane to keep dreaming the American dream, with the
retirement funds and the fund incurred losses or went bust,
belief that if they worked hard and did what was right,
the investments would be guaranteed by Uncle Sam (a.k.a.
they would have a good chance of reaching the top and
the American taxpayer).
striking it rich. And when they did, they wouldnt want
It was a variant of the Bush/Obama bailouts of Wall
the government raising their taxes and giving the money
Streets too-big-to-fails, in which profits were privatized
to welfare cheats, illegal immigrants, abortions for the
and losses socialized. In other words, the billionaire banks
poor, and other social programs.
and brokerages distributed the profits among themselves
And why not believe? Throughout much of Ameriwhen business was good, but when it went bad, the taxpaycas history that dream was not mere fantasy. It could be
ers were forced to bail them out.
realized and it was a driving force behind the millions
Similarly, under the GOP plan, the government-apfrom all over the world who flocked to the land of opproved private funds would earn profits from investing and
portunity. Realistically, of course, who you were, where
managing the money, but if losses occurred, the taxpayer
you came from, and who you knew made it much easier
would pay the bill.
to open doors. But imbued with Yankee ingenuity and
It had become fashionable for the new breed of Rea can-do spirit, the un-privileged and un-bankrolled
publicans to look back to Ronald Reagan as Mentor in
with big dreams and a small grub stake could, and often
Chief, as the President who won the Cold War, cut taxes,
did, succeed.
shrank the government, and saved the economy. But it
By 2011, that American Dream had, however, long
would have behooved them to look further back into their
been laid to rest, murdered in cold blood by Wall Street,
Republican history to a two-term, equally popular Presicorporate executives, and American politicians.
dent who counsel was:
The one-two knockout punch that floored the Dream
Should any political party attempt to abolish social sewas thrown by Bill Clinton and Al Gore back in 1993 with
curity, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws
the passage of the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement
and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again
(NAFTA). For nearly a decade, corporate honchos and fiin our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of
nanciers had been pressuring Congress to eliminate barcourse, that believes that you can do these things. Among
riers to allow offshoring of jobs so they might generate
them are a few Texas oil millionaires, and an occasional
larger profits by accessing cheap foreign labor.
politician or businessman from other areas. Their number
(Continued on page 13)
is negligible and they are stupid. Dwight D. Eisenhower
11
12
A blatantly lethal, American job-destroying proposition that couldnt be sold to the people during the Reagan
and G.H.W. Bush presidencies was slick-willied through
Congress by Bill Slick Willie Clinton.
Clinton and Congress conned the public into believing that, with the passage of NAFTA, a New Economy
would arise and the American standard of living would
rise with it. Out would go those dirty-fingernail manufacturing jobs, to be replaced by a shiny-clean service society
spearheaded by the financial sector and juiced by good
old Yankee Ingenuity and innovation.
Another promised upside to off-shoring was based
on the idea that as poor people in cheap labor countries
earned more, they would evolve their own middle class, become consumer societies, and buy Made in USA imports.
The entire scheme was a fallacy and a fraud from the
onset, and we, like many others knew it. The jobs lost
would never return, the touted high-skilled service society would never materialize, and Americas balance of
trade became irretrievably unbalanced. (See What About
Nafta? Trends Journal, Fall 1993)
The New Economy was a busted economy busted
dreams, busted careers, busted banks. The old economy
was lost, and there was no new economy to take its place.
Now, in the Summer of 2011, only a few will remem-
Liza Donnelly
social networking his weiner for the world to see. Regardless of the side of the aisle he sat or where he stood on the
issues, the Weinergate episode provided an exemplary illustration of the divide between them and us.
Weiner lost his job, but kept intact his bountiful pension and many of his perks:
13
14
Not only did the White Shoe Boyz get the free money, they
got a free pass from the Presstitutes. No comment on
the special treatment they got to rescue their own failing
businesses (and keep on paying themselves enormous bonuses) while everyone else was left to fend for themselves.
Back in the 1930s, in Hitlers Germany and Mussolinis Italy, such overt collusion between the corporate
sector and the government was called Fascism. In 2011, in
Obamas America it was called no comment.
This was not the first revelation of behind-the-scenes
schemes between the Fed and the well-fed. The trillions in
back door deals with global banks, big businesses, hedge
funds and financial institutions had been earlier exposed
through law suits and requirements in the recently passed
Dodd-Frank Act without which no one would know
anything. Yet, it hardly mattered, because knowledge, in
these cases, did not mean power.
The Fed, Washington and the Pentagon all did as they
pleased and, regardless of how many egregious failures
were added to old egregious failures, they were never held
accountable.
PUBLIC ENEMY #1
As card-carrying sociopaths, they were exonerated from
admitting to failure, and the Presstitutes, who would
have eviscerated anyone outside the club who had
been responsible for failures of similar stature, bowed,
15
16
UNSTIMULATED
Since working people did not get stimulated by the stimulus, who did? Certainly, many billions were frittered away
mysteriously to contractors, middle men and insiders, and
this money was not easily traceable.
But there was one group that cashed in big time and
openly: the too-big-to-fails. As the middle class evaporated and the working class was fast becoming the workless
class, Wall Street and corporate America were awash in
profits, awarding chief executives with pre-recession-size
bonuses. Compensation for the 200 highest-paid CEOs
increased by 23 percent, cash bonuses were up 38 percent (three times pre-recession levels) while the average
workers hourly wages (adjusted for inflation) declined by
1.6 percent since May 2010.
Trendpost: Now, in the Summer of 2011, the Fed implicit-
ly acknowledges it misinterpreted the data to read recovery and now they openly admit they read it wrong. But
the mainstream media not only give both Bernanke and
Greenspan a free pass, they also fail to acknowledge and/
or give credit to the few of us who predicted that both the
Feds money-pumping swindle and Washingtons stimulus
scams were doomed to fail. As a result, the great mass of
the public is kept in the calculated dark.
The Panic Button has been pushed. But it has been
muffled in linguistic media soundproofing. Dont be fooled,
the Panic is ON!
While the US and other economies are sinking ships,
they will not go under in a couple of hours. There is still
time to take stock of the situation and take measures that
will assure safety. If the Fed and Washington could not
keep the economy afloat after pumping tens of trillions
into it, it follows that nothing they do now will save it
either. At this juncture, safety wealth preservation not
speculation, should be paramount.
17
By early July, General Consensus was still leading the economic charge since no one in charge had seen fit to
call his bluff. The stormy June equity markets ended the
month on a high note: US benchmark indexes had their
biggest weekly gains in two years on the news that the
US manufacturing index unexpectedly rose, and Greece
(according to the General) had moved closer to averting
a default.
Thats not the way we saw it. Yes, the equity markets
had improved. With interest rates near zero, betting on
stocks was seen by many as a better gamble than keeping
it in the bank and watching it devalue. The cheap money
policies of the US, EMU and China had kept the global
economy from crashing.
But Greece was not bailed out! Greece was sold out!
New debt was piled on old, taxes were raised, services were
cut, and valuable public resources and properties were
18
Eugene Gregan
privatized (sold at fire sale prices to friends with connections). Greece would not be the only one of the PIIGS
(Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) that would have its
throat slit by the Troika (European Commission, European
Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund).
IMFD
Neither in Greece nor in any of the PIIGS had the major
underlying problems been fixed. The budget deficits, debt
burdens, real estate crises, and intractable unemployment
(particularly among youth) continued to plague much of
Europe as well as the United States.
As long as money kept flowing in (digital money not
worth the paper it was not printed on), the Ponzi scheme
could keep going. That such flagrant finagles were passed
off as policies was a criminal act in itself.
As we had been insisting since the Panic of 08 hit
and the rescue/bailout policies were put in place, it was a
cover up, not a recovery. (See Trend Alert, Celente on Russia Today - Cover up, not Recovery, 15 September 2009)
Yet, as we continued to forecast no recovery, the pompom pundits of the Fortune 500 monopolized the financial
news with their upbeat message: the recession was over,
confidence was being restored, corporate profits were at record highs, consumers were shopping, manufacturing was
robust, and job creation was back on track.
Go back to July 7, 2011, the day before the Bureau
of Labor Statistics released its much anticipated employment numbers. Read what well respected analysts such as Mark Off the Mark Zandi said. The oftquoted mouthpiece for Moodys Investor Service (the
rating firm that escaped federal prosecution for fraud
19
TREND LESSON:
Unspinning The Spin
eople often ask, How do you track and forecast trends? There are many facets to our Globalnomic method, but as
with learning to play an instrument, before you can play the music, you have to learn the scales.
In trend tracking, one of the scales to learn is how to parse the language for the real story behind the printed
story. Sometimes its relatively obvious, e.g., when opponents of invading and/or occupying nations are demonized by the
invaders/occupiers as insurgents, militants, radicals and extremists. Repeated often enough ( la Josef Goebbels)
those labels become accepted as the truth.
So ingrained is the practice, that it is standard operating procedure within the invading American military to refer to the
enemy as the bad guys and themselves as the good guys. Following the military lead, the media and politicians take up
the theme. As former TV host Ted Koppel explained during the US-led Kosovo/Serbian war, People like to reduce the news
to good guys and bad guys. Maybe so, or is it that Koppel and his media mates like to reduce the news to good guys and
bad guys rather than do their job as journalists and report the news in its messy complexity?
In other instances, the language of propaganda is less obvious and the nuggets of spin have to be extracted from the raw
journalistic ore.
Thus, that studiously bland Times story quoted (see page 18) reveals itself as little more than economic propaganda.
Though the headline (Forecasts for Growth Drop, Some Sharply) sets up the reader for a downbeat message, the cumulative elements instead lead the reader to believe that though the road to recovery may be bumpier than anticipated, better
times lie ahead.
20
CRIME PAYS
For example, the United States government now officially
adopted new guidelines which, despite a raft of inquiries
into alleged financial crimes that led to the Panic of 08,
resulted in just a few cases brought to trial. Termed deferred prosecution by the Justice Department, the new unconfrontational approach was lauded in White Shoe Boyz
lingo by Sullivan and Cromwell (a prominent law firm specializing in defending white collar criminal cases) as an
important step away from the more aggressive prosecutorial practices seen in some cases under their predecessors.
Euphemized as a gentler approach by The New
York Times, in plain English it meant crime pays: the
Washington-protected Wall Street Mob was too-big-toprosecute and too-big-to-jail.
No better illustration could be found than the deal
the Justice Department cut with American International
Group (A.I.G.) back in 2004 for helping clients improperly burnish financial statements (a.k.a. cook the books).
Let off the hook with a deferred prosecution agreement
and a paltry $126 million fine, A.I.G. given a free ride to
pursue its business as usual would go down in history as
the notorious too big to fail that the American taxpayer
was forced to bailout in 2008, to the tune of $182 billion.
Nevertheless, even though the money mobsters were
free to live their luxurious lives of crime, even they
couldnt keep the mega-Ponzi scheme going in perpetuity.
The Panic Button had been pushed.
the Great Recession and the bogusness of the vaunted recovery, see no pick up indicated by the data.
However, considering the lengths the Fed and White House will go to in order to prop up the failing economy, they may
well pump more trillions into it. Less than three weeks after Analysts generally expect the economy to pick up in the second
half, Ben Wrong Again Bernanke told Congress, We dont know where the economy is going to go.
He left open the possibility for yet another round of Fed intervention. More stimulus atop of old stimulus that didnt work
before would, again, at best, provide the appearance of a pick-up, but the reprieve would again be only temporary.
Pubishers Note: If you were going for your MBA at Harvard, or any top-of-the-line or bottom-of-the-barrel business school,
despite the tens of thousands of dollars spent, the thousands of hours endured listening to mind-numbing lectures, and the
endless hours spent poring through overpriced text books written in impenetrable business jargon, you would not be taught
this trend tracking lesson on how to distinguish spin from story.
And, to make matters worse, you would be systematically indoctrinated into the cult of the expert, where general consensus (most economists believe) is presented as if it were equivalent to evidence. The Sun orbits the Earth, phlogiston is
what allows combustion to take place, and the atom cannot be split are just a few of the hundreds of exploded ideas that were
once held as axiomatic truths by general consensus.
Yet, it is as though history had never happened. For anyone to draw definitive conclusions in any of the disciplines (health,
science, politics, economics, etc.) based upon general consensus is not just folly, but an insult to the intellect. The fundamentals of the economy are sound Go back to your offices, the fire in the North Tower is under control.
The failure to Think for Yourself could cost you money, and even your life. n
21
S O L U T I O N S
C E L E N T E
S O L U T I O N S
C E L E N T E
22
The American Economy is in collapse. Nothing the White House, Congress or the Federal Reserve tries to do to stop the crash will stop it. Bushs TARP, Obamas stimulus and Bernankes
money-pumping schemes none have delivered the recovery each had promised. The digital
trillions injected by the government to keep financial firms afloat put America on temporary
life-support, no more than that. When the plug is pulled and the money pump stops, the US
economy will go down and much of the world will sink with it.
On the war front, the storys the same. Nothing the White House, Congress or the Pentagon
does will bring the results they promise. Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Libya Bush,
Obama, Gates, Petraeus big talk, trillions spent, millions killed, nations destroyed, antiAmerican hatred seething and no victory in sight.
Undeterred by having batted zero, Republican and Democratic leaders and government
lackeys defend pitiful performances with the same hollow lines: Progress is being made; more
time is needed. From the economy to war and peace, from education to health care reform, new
failures are piled on old ones. Major disasters are compounded into tragic debacles.
But wait, theres hope! The 2012 campaign bandwagon is rolling. Jam-packed with a new class
of Presidential candidates, this time it will be different. The cameras roll, and candidates boast
that they, and only they, have what it takes to bring about prosperity and set the nation straight.
And from right and left, the kids at the circus jump from their seats and cheer for the clowns.
History tells us, in the most unequivocal terms, that a vote for any Republican or Democratic party candidate in 2012 will be a vote for more of the same. Nothing, Nothing, Nothing,
NOTHING that any Presidential front runner promises will bring about prosperity or Change
You Can Believe In.
DELUSION SOLUTION
Come Election Day, the media and politicians will be spinning the same old tale: Get out and vote. If you
dont exercise your right to vote, you lose your
right to complain.
What nincompoop made up this deceptive
line, one that sounds politically correct and morally persuasive, but, in reality, is pure nonsense?
Vote for whom? Tweedle Dee or Tweedle
Dum? A lesser of two evils? A choice between
very dishonest and very incompetent or just plain
dishonest and incompetent? What an historic day
it would be if the electorate entered the polling
place bewildered about having to choose between the greater of two greats. Then, and only
then, would the citizen who did not vote lose
their right to complain.
Regardless of who is elected Republican
or Democrat the only solution I can see at
22
this time that could save America (and be applied worldwide) is to take the power out of the
hands of politicians and put it into the hands
of the people.
In Switzerland, where this is practiced, it is
called Direct Democracy. The people vote on
major issues that affect them locally and globally, and the elected officials (whether they agree
or not) perform their duties as public servants,
carrying out the will of the people.
The US and other nations that call themselves democratic have representative democracy. In theory, elected officials pledged to carry
out (represent) the will of the people. But, in
practice, at least in modern memory, most elected officials carry out the will of special interests
whose campaign contributions (a.k.a. bribes
and payoffs) assure their subservience.
While most everybody knows this, its both
C E L E N T E
Regardless of who is elected, the only solution I can see that could
save America (and be applied worldwide) is to take the power out of the
hands of politicians and put it into the hands of the people.
S O L U T I O N S
Eugene Gregan
23
C E L E N T E
bailouts,
rescue packages,
budgets, taxes,
health care, oil
drilling, hydrofracking, subsidies, education,
abortion, drug
lega l i zat ion,
same sex marriage, zoning,
eminent
doDancing with Direct Democracy: The Third Party is You!
main and
yes, secessionCALL TO ACTION Virtually every day ism for all those who no longer want to be part
we receive emails asking us for direction on how
of an increasingly imperfect and dysfunctional
to reverse negative trends we have identified, and
union the European or the American Way:
how to successfully navigate the future.
Let the People vote!
Given todays dire socioeconomic and geoGive the public servants the unique oppolitical conditions and our forecast for them to
portunity to truly play the role they so insistently
dramatically deteriorate, I believe that changing
pretend they have been playing all along and
from a faux-representative democracy to Direct
serve the public.
Democracy would be a giant step in the right diWHERE TO START Understanding
rection. If the Swiss can do it successfully, why
the tremendous power that social networking
cant anyone else?
played in galvanizing the revolutions of the
As a political atheist, I belong to no politiArab Spring and the uprisings and protests
cal party nor adhere to an ideology. At this early
raging through Europe, I propose using the
stage of the 2012 campaign (though I disagree
same model to bring about a Direct Democracy
with certain of his strict libertarian principles), I
revolution.
would vote for Ron Paul for his bring-home-theThere will be legal hurdles to jump and potroops, close-the-bases, shrink-the-military, endlitical obstacles erected that will need to be overthe-drug-war, bring-down-the-Federal-Reserve
come. It is going to take passion and persistence
platform.
from people with relevant skills to push the moveYet, even if Paul were elected, the special
ment forward. It should never be forgotten that no
interests would fight to keep what they have
law is immutable. Laws are made only to be superand possibly kill not to lose it. And with a viable,
seded by new laws. No clearer example can be givtruly independent third party not in the cards for
en than the wholesale raping of the Constitution
2012, the only viable solution I can envisage that
by the Supreme Court and successive presidents.
could reverse the trends is take the vote out of
What better time to write a new one?
the hands of party politicians and put it in the
If the Founding Fathers could pull it off with
hands of the people: Direct Democracy!
horses, sheer will and quill pens, surely 21st cenOn issues ranging from federal to local
tury revolutionaries can make Direct Democracy
going to war, foreign aid, trade agreements,
S O L U T I O N S
tolerated and
accepted as political business
as usual. Only
school children,
the delusional
and the willfully dont-knownuthin
still
believe that the
officials theyve
elected represent them.
23
S O L U T I O N S
C E L E N T E
S O L U T I O N S
C E L E N T E
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24
25
S O L U T I O N S
C E L E N T E
FIGHT!
S O L U T I O N S
C E L E N T E
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26
S O L U T I O N S
C E L E N T E
S O L U T I O N S
C E L E N T E
C E L E N T E
S O L U T I O N S
27
S O L U T I O N S
C E L E N T E
For example, The theme of this Trends Journal is Fight For Freedom!
Its a headrecent US federache it imFight for your rights, fight for your dignity, and fight
al tests found 48
plies that someas though your life is on the line because it is!
different pestithing terrible is
cide residues in
going on, said
98 percent of apples (the nations second most
Mark Seetin, the trade groups director of regulaconsumed fruit). The public was reassured by
tory affairs. But growers are doing nothing illethe government that the pesticides were within
gal. Theyre just trying to keep their apples fresh
limits that federal regulators consider safe.
and nutritious.
The data we collect confirms that consumYes, for a majority, the apples, celery, spiners can assume that residues, for the most part, fall
ach, potatoes, etc., are accepted as fresh and
within the EPAs tolerance level for safe food, said
nutritious, and pose no health dangers. But for
Deputy Agriculture Secretary Kathleen Merrigan.
the members of the 20 Percent Club susCan assume? For the most part?
picious of government safety standards and disWhat about all those other parts that do not
trustful of all industry spokespersons avoiding
add up to such an assumption? It has been estabgenetically modified, chemically fertilized, and
lished (I wrote about it at length, 15 years ago, in
pesticide-doused foods was a matter of life and
Trends 2000) that there is no way for the EPA, or
death. (See 20 Percent Solution, Trends Jouranyone else, to measure the long-term effects of
nal, Spring 2010)
accumulated doses of the spectrum of pesticides,
TAXED TO DEATH
toxins and chemicals that virtually everyone in the
developed world is subjected to, nor is there a way
When Benjamin Franklin noted, In this world
to gauge their complex interactions.
nothing can be said to be certain, except death and
taxes, he was not taking into account the effects
Pesticides Far More Harmful
of taxes upon death!
When Combined, Study Finds
In todays world, the more the government
takes in taxes, the greater the toll it takes on the
Pesticides that by themselves have been
individual. The tried-and-true school, property,
linked to breast cancer and male birth
income and sales taxes combined with a host
defects are up to one thousand times
of license, sin, nuisance and other creative taxes
more potent when combined, according
are generally accepted as just another unpleasto a study.
ant fact of life. But, in fact, like those doses of raIf you test them individually you
diation, and like a steady diet of pesticide-tainted
could almost conclude that they were
factory food, chemically-treated water and pollutnon-estrogenic, almost inconsequential,
ed air, the cumulative effects of oppressive taxes
he [John A. McLachlan of Tulane Unibecomes a real matter of life and death.
versity] said. But when you put them in
The greater the taxes, the greater the stress.
combination their potency jumped up
The more the taxman takes, the less there is to
five hundred- to one thousand-fold.
pay the bills, with next to nothing left to put away
Instead of one plus one equaling two,
for retirement. The worse the economy gets, the
we found that in some cases one plus one
more difficult it becomes for the tens of millions
equals a thousand. (AP, 7 June 1996)
with little or no cushion to make it through the
hard times.
Yet, when the apple story was reported in June
Yes, its a matter of life and death. The sta2011, mention of the well-known, established
tistics support the obvious: the greater the stress
dangers of the chemical interactions were comlevel, the greater the impact on mental and physpletely avoided. True to form, rather than acical health.
knowledging any potential danger, the US Apple
Its more than just spirit-sapping: with the
Association countered with the argument that
revenuers taking ever bigger cuts, even the health
the pesticide amounts found fell within the limconscious who would like to eat pricier clean
its of the law which industry lobbyists had
food cant put money they dont have where their
helped to write.
27
COMBAT FATIGUE
S O LUT I O N S
Average citizens live in a state of disconnect. Unless they served in the military themselves, they
have no idea of the organizational dysfunction
that prevails from top to bottom. From maintaining several hundred far flung camps and bases,
and engaging in wars waged a world away, to
multi-billions spent on extravagant weapons programs and military contractors (a.k.a. mercenaries), the militarys agenda is: increase the budget
and spend every dime.
The more money that goes to feed the military machine, the less there is for ordinary people
to pay rent, mortgages, health needs, medical
care, tuition, retirement, etc.
But cozened by politicians into believing
its a patriotic duty to support the troops, and
poorly served by a media that plays up wars while
playing down both the moral consequences and
the financial costs, the public at large accepts
the unacceptable. With barely a protest, they
let the government dig into their pockets, take
what they want, reduce them to penury and keep
them at war all under the guise of national
security.
How could the public allow themselves to
accept this?
Actually, it was very easy. There was a simple,
tried-and-true formula, famously explained by
Herman Goering with the crystal clarity of a man
on his way to the gallows at Nuremberg:
28
28
S O L UTI O N S
C E L E N T E
C E LE NTE
mouth is. (See Clean Food Trend, Trends Journal, Spring 1994)
And when it comes to the issue of war, the
question of life and death is self-evident in the
numbers of the dead, the wounded, the psychologically crippled. Less immediately evident
are the not-so-hidden financial costs. Everyone
knows that keeping the military machine welloiled and fighting is astronomically expensive.
The military is marketed to the public as
brave young men and women in uniform
sacrificing their lives for the safety of the nation. And the wars themselves are also packaged in patriotism. Absent from the sales pitch
is the military high commands proven incompetence, gross and reckless financial profligacy,
and its monumental battlefield follies and failures. More men, more money, more time, is
the motto.
29
30
BACKTRACKS BACK
Despite his barefaced hypocrisy and a presidential term
replete with economic policies that enriched the richest
while, at best, maintaining only basic social services for
the poorest (while slashing others), he again positioned
himself as Obama, the Peoples President.
It was a simple, time-honored strategy. Its what incumbents do regardless of which side of which mouth of
the two-headed one-party system was speaking: make big,
bold promises during the campaign and, once elected, renege on as many as possible, blaming your inability to
deliver on the opposing party.
Having been swept into office on a platform of Hope
and Change and in full control of the house and Senate for his first two years, Obamas greatest success was to
seamlessly perpetuate the G.W. Bush economic and military doctrine he had vilified as candidate Obama. Los-
31
cided, and with the medias saturation coverage of candidates on the campaign trail licking ice cream cones,
chatting it up with just plain folks over coffee at the local
diner, and patting cows at the state fair it would not be
long before voter fatigue would set in, leaving an opening
for a dark horse to win the nomination, and conceivably
the White House.
Trend Forecast: In late July of 2011, our two dark horse
LIBERALTARIAN?
Pauls uncompromising end-the-wars, close-all-overseasmilitary bases, bring-home-the-troops platform should
have been music to the ears of the liberal left a foreign
policy dream come true, one that no Democrat President
in living history had dared propose. What liberal would
not support a President who pledged to end the War on
Drugs, legalize marijuana and dismantle the Patriot Act
that made a travesty of the Constitution?
Surely, these conscientious quiche-eaters would never
vote for a Republican with a track record that included
extending and expanding the Patriot Act, increasing military spending, prolonging old wars and starting new ones,
operated torture compounds in foreign countries, ratcheting up the War on Terror, and increasing funding for the
War on Drugs.
So why would they want to bring back Obama when
this was his precise track record, and why would they refuse to embrace Paul, who stood with them on so many
issues dear to their bleeding liberal hearts? It couldnt
have been Pauls anti-bail-out-the-bigs and close-downthe-Fed stances that were the definitive turn off.
No, it was mostly one issue that the ideologically entrapped liberals claimed turned them off: abortion. While
he opposed abortion, Paul contended it was a states issue,
not a federal one. Abortion! That was enough to make
32
33
34
index (CPI) underestimates inflation by assuming that consumers substitute cheaper foods for those that rise in price.
For example, if the price of New York strip steak rises, this
does not show up in the CPI, because of the assumption that
people shift their purchases to a less expensive cut such as
round steak.
ECONOMIC ARMAGEDDON
The third crisis was the $1.5+ trillion annual federal budget deficits, which were too large to be financed without
the Federal Reserve buying the Treasurys new debt issues.
Known as monetizing debt, the Federal Reserve purchased
the Treasurys bills, notes, and bonds by creating a checking account, which the Treasury would then draw upon to
pay the governments bills. The outpouring of Treasury
debt raised concerns about the dollars exchange value
and role as reserve currency, and it raised fears of inflation.
Gold and silver prices rose as the dollar declined in foreign
exchange markets.
Any one of these crises was serious. All together, they
implied economic armageddon.
There was no obvious way out, but even if one could be
found, the government was focused elsewhere on wars.
In addition to ongoing military operations in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, the US and
NATO began military operations against Libya on March
19, 2011. As with the existing wars, the real purpose of
the aggression against Libya was not acknowledged, but
Chinas oil investments in Angola and Nigeria were another target. To counter Chinas economic penetration of
Africa, the US created the American African Command in
the closing years of the first decade of the 21st century. Disturbed by Chinas rise, the US undertook to prevent China
from having independent sources of energy. The great
game that in the past has always led to war is being played
out once again.
September 11, 2001, provided Washington with a new
threat to replace the Soviet threat, which had expired in
1991. Despite the absence of the Soviet threat, the military/
security budget had been kept alive for a decade. September
11, 2001, injected rapid growth into the military/security budget. A decade later the budget stood at approximately $1.1
trillion annually, or approximately 70 percent of the federal
deficit which was crippling the dollar and threatening the US
Treasurys credit rating.
Focused on Middle Eastern wars, Washington was losing the war for the US economy.
As the expectation of economic recovery evaporated over
the course of 2011, the need for war became more imperative.
(See Antiwar.com, Sen. Graham Very Close to War.) n
35
EU Bailouts: Serfs Up
By Paul Craig Roberts
36
TAKEOVER
In addition, the Greek government has to free up tax revenues
with which to repay the loans by laying off public employees,
cutting their pensions, raising taxes, and slashing the remaining public services. All the money and income flows leave
Greece and go to foreign bankers, driving the Greek economy
deeper into recession and inability to pay.
Needless to say, the Greek population opposes the austerity that is mandated in order to receive what the New York Times
calls the prize of winning a bailout. The winner, of course, is
not Greece, but the German, Dutch, and French bankers. This is
why Greeks have been protesting in the streets for weeks, only
to find that their socialist government does not represent them.
The Greek government has aligned with the foreign bankers. On June 23, the Greek finance minister won the bailout
with a five-year austerity plan that lowers the minimum threshold for income tax to 8,000 euros a year ($11,200), increases the
tax on heating oil, and imposes a solidarity levy on income of
between 1 and 5 percent. Obviously, the poor are being made
to pay for the rich bankers mistakes.
According to the head of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, the
next step in making democracy work is to remove the sovereignty of the Greek government. In a speech on June 2, Trichet
said that the task was to bring Europe beyond a strict concept
of nationhood and the traditional practice of protecting debtors. Whether a country could afford to pay its debts was no
longer a question of its budgetary condition if the country has
public domain that can be privatized.
Greece would have to be made to pay, said Trichet, or other EU member states would demand restructuring and writedowns of their excessive debts. In order to avoid a contagion
(Continued on page 39)
A MEGA-TREND-IN-WAITING
here was a new normal! It was not only a matter of downgraded expectations for income, jobs
and hobbled GDP resulting in a lower standard of
living. What federal, state and municipal governments had
formerly provided, they could no longer afford to provide
at previous levels.
Health care reform, with its obvious grave implications
for the future of America, was a hot button issue that dominated heated partisan political debate at the onset of Campaign 2012. But a no less crucial issue that was not part of
the debate at all, and that had even graver implications for
the future of America, was education.
Like public health care, public education was a budgetdraining, bureaucracy-heavy burden on the taxpayer. Even
when it makes its way onto the campaign trail, candidates
debate how to improve education, rather than acknowledge that the system itself is inadequate, obsolete, dilapidated and beyond repair.
Those forward-thinking, deep-pocketed and big-hearted businesses and individuals that want to give back
with the intention of bringing the United States (or any nation) back to prosperity, might consider taking a page from
the Andrew Carnegie book of philanthropy.
Understanding that it is also in their economic interest
to have a well educated society and that the more people
earn, the more they will spend, it presents an opportunity
for the private sector to practice a form of enlightened self
interest.
37
Whatsamatta U?
The Trends
Research Institute has been providing
Under Pressure, Teachers
evidence for the breakdown of the entire
Tamper with Tests
educational system for over two decades.
It was a trend that could not be denied.
The staff of Normandy Crossing ElYet the government, teachers unions and
ementary School outside Houston
vested interests were still adamantly ineagerly awaited the results of state
sisting that the unfixable could be fixed.
achievement tests this spring. For
A Nation at Risk, No Child Left Bethe principal and assistant princihind, harebrained schemes executed
pal, high scores could buoy their
by Education Czars that squandered huncareers at a time when success is
Peace Prize
dreds of billions but left the nation more
increasingly measured by such
at risk than ever and a generation of children left behind.
tests. For fifth-grade math and science teachers, the
The basic problem was obvious: resistance to change. In
rewards were more tangible: a bonus of $2,850.
the private sector, market forces put outmoded systems out of
But when the results came back, some seemed
business. But government bureaucracies, education included,
too good to be true. Indeed, after an investigation by
will fight to perpetuate their existence long after theyve bethe Galena Park Independent School District, the princome irrelevant.
cipal, assistant principal and three teachers resigned
Back in 1990, Gerald Celente wrote in his book Trend TrackMay 24 in a scandal over test tampering.
ing, Our school system was designed to meet the needs of a
The district said the educators had distributed a
growing industrial society. It taught people how to read, write,
detailed study guide after stealing a look at the state
and do some arithmetic. More important, it taught them how
science test by tubing it squeezing a test booklet,
to follow instructions and be good employees. It didnt teach
without breaking its paper seal, to form an open tube
them how to think. It didnt teach them how to ask questions,
so that questions inside could be seen and used in the
how to analyze problems, or how to find solutions.
guide. The district invalidated students scores.
The solution is: New Millennium Education.
Of all the forms of academic cheating, none may
be as startling as educators tampering with childrens
standardized tests. But investigations in Georgia, IndiTrendpost: Of all the trends we forecast, New Millennium
ana, Massachusetts, Nevada, Virginia and elsewhere
Education ranks high as both a game changer and a money
this year have pointed to cheating by educators.
maker. Twenty-one years ago, the computer revolution was in
Educators feel that their schools reputation,
its infancy. In those days of dial-up, the digital age was still but
their livelihoods, their psychic meaning in life is at
a dream. Now that hi-tech has become an integral part of daily
stake, said Robert Schaeffer, public education direclife, it is curious that it has not already supplanted or drastically
tor for FairTest, a nonprofit group critical of standardre-shaped the entire educational system.
ized testing. That ends up pushing more and more of
The possibilities for new courseware and new systems for
them over the line.
teaching it are limitless. Just as online shopping has taken a
Not everyone agrees. Beverly L. Hall, who, as the
big chunk out of brick-and-mortar retail business, so, too, the
superintendent of the Atlanta Public Schools, has won
technology already exists for advanced, interactive, virtual realnational recognition for elevating test scores, said disity classrooms to take a big chunk out of expensive, high mainhonesty was relatively low in education. Teachers
tenance, bus-dependent public schools.
over all are principled people in terms of wanting to be
With an entire younger generation tech hard-wired and
sure what they teach is what students are learning,
ready for change, the only obstacles impeding hi-tech educashe said. (NYT, 10 June 2010)
tional advances are the entrenched agents of no change. Its
the executive-level salaried superintendants, administrators,
A year later, with Ms. Hall herself at the center of the cheattenured teachers and their unions who so adamantly oppose
ing scandal, and with the District of Columbia, Maryland, Calieven discussing any new educational model.
fornia, Florida, and Ohio added to the test tampering roster,
On the infrequent occasions when the possibilities of an
it became hard to make the case that Teachers over all are
alternative system are raised, they are immediately attacked,
38
dants, to principals, to teachers to bored and refractory students forced to suffer through a curriculum that starves creativity and stifles individual thought, the system does not work.
Just as no amount of retrofitting an old typewriter can produce
a computer, no amount of reconfiguration of an outmoded system can create New Millennium Education.
Publishers Note: Whether online or off, not everyone is suitTrendpost: Whether or not still merited, America retains its
reputation for Yankee Ingenuity. New Millennium Education
provides an open-book opportunity to prove that America has
not lost the spirit of innovation that made it what it was. Unlike
health care, an area where other countries operate more costefficient and effective systems to refer to as models for reform,
New Millennium Education does not yet exist as a government
funded enterprise.
In 2011, educational reform at its best and most inventive
a mix of online courses and charter schools was little more
than a remodeling of the system in place. To recoin a phrase,
its the system, stupid. From Education Czars to superinten-
WASHINGTONS RESPONSE
(Continued from page 36 )
of write-downs, which would be at the expense of creditor
banks, the UCB was justified in disregarding its charter and
providing the forbidden loans to Greece in the context of a
strong adjustment program. However, if the Greek government did not stick to the mandates of the adjustment program
and sell off its public domain, a second stage of intervention would come into play. European Union authorities would
exercise an authoritative say in the formation of the countrys economic policies.
EU interdependence, Trichet said, means that countries
de facto do not have complete internal authority. The second
stage would make this de jure. European Union authorities
would simply take over Greeces fiscal affairs and decide its
budget. Sovereignty and representative government would be
abrogated, and EU member states would come under the rule
of private bankers.
Much the same thing has happened in the US. The Wall
Street executives who control the Treasury and financial regulatory agencies used public money and the Federal Reserves
balance sheet to bail out the casino bets of the irresponsible
financial institutions that they formerly headed, while millions
of taxpayers lost their homes, jobs and medical insurance. In
the US, Direct Democracy appears to be the only recourse to
rule by the private bankers.
But the Greek crisis has not yet played out, despite the
decision of the Greek government to submit, when its best option was simply to default and to leave the EU. Germans have
39
A MEGATREND
(Continued from page 39 )
go to, didnt want to go to, or couldnt finish college? After
four years of conventional high school, a student who couldnt
make the academic grade left school having learned next to
nothing, with no marketable skills. In 2011, however, those who
had graduated from career/technical/vocational high schools
left with marketable, hands-on skills and practical knowledge,
with more possibilities than many college grads with degrees
in worthlessness and mountains of debt.
Apart from their obvious role in providing young people
with skill sets for careers in reliable, solidly paying and satisfy-
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