NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

September 2016
Arizona Questionnaire
Residents:n=1102 MOE +/- 3.0%
Registered Voters: n=946 MOE +/- 3.2%
Likely Voters: n=649 MOE +/- 3.8%
Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Screener
<Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Arizona?
HH SELECTION – LANDLINE FRAME ONLY
GENDER GUESS

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
LIKELY VOTERS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total

September 2016
46
50
5
100

REGISTERED VOTERS

September 2016
47
47
6
100

RESIDENTS

September 2016
48
44
7
100

Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total

Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support
if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a
candidate]:
LIKELY VOTERS
Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats
Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans
Neither
Other
Undecided
Total

September 2016
41
42
10
2
4
100

REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats

September 2016
41

Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans
Neither
Other
Undecided
Total

40
13
2
4
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll September 2016; Page 1

Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support them, or
do you think you might vote differently on Election Day [including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate]?
LIKELY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support

September 2016
63

Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total

30
5
1
100

REGISTERED VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support

September 2016
58

Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total

34
7
1
100

If November's presidential election were held today, whom would you support
if the candidates are [including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a
candidate]:
LIKELY VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

September 2016
38

Donald Trump, the Republican
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
Jill Stein, of the Green Party
Other
Undecided
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

40
12
3
1
6
100
September 2016
37

Donald Trump, the Republican
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian
Jill Stein, of the Green Party
Other
Undecided
Total

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll September 2016; Page 2

37
13
4
2
7
100

Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Hillary
Clinton?
LIKELY VOTERS
Favorable

September 2016
34

Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total

61
5
100
REGISTERED VOTERS

Favorable

September 2016
33

Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total

61
6
100
RESIDENTS

Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total
Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Donald
Trump?
LIKELY VOTERS
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total

September 2016
35
58
7
100

REGISTERED VOTERS

September 2016
32
60
8
100

RESIDENTS

September 2016
31
61
8
100

Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total

Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure/Never heard
Total

September 2016
33
60
7
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll September 2016; Page 3

If November's election for U.S. Senate in Arizona were held today, whom
would you support if the candidates are [including those who are undecided
yet leaning toward a candidate]:
LIKELY VOTERS
Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
John McCain, the Republican
Other
Undecided
Total
REGISTERED VOTERS
Ann Kirkpatrick, the Democrat
John McCain, the Republican
Other
Undecided
Total
Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support them, or
do you think you might vote differently on Election Day?
LIKELY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support

September 2016
38
57
1
4
100
September 2016
38
57
1
5
100

September 2016
53

Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total

37
8
1
100

REGISTERED VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support

September 2016
51

Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total

38
9
2
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll September 2016; Page 4

Are you male or female?
LIKELY VOTERS

September 2016
48
52
100

REGISTERED VOTERS

September 2016
48
52
100

RESIDENTS

September 2016
49
51
100

Male
Female
Total

Male
Female
Total

Male
Female
Total
Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll of 1,102 Adults

This survey of 1,102 adults was conducted September 6th through September 8th, 2016 by The Marist
Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of
age and older residing in the state of Arizona were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and
interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were
randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of Arizona from
ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in
proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the
youngest male. This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of
mobile phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Assistance was provided by Luce Research
for data collection. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to
reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region,
except for race, which is from the 2010 Census. Results are statistically significant within ±3.0 percentage
points. There are 946 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.2
percentage points. There are 649 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines
the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Presidential Election based upon their chance of
vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for this subset are statistically
significant within ±3.8 percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and
increases for cross-tabulations.
For nature of the sample and additional tables, please visit The Marist Poll

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Arizona Poll September 2016; Page 5