KEY ASSEMBLY RACES

Assume 20 safe D seats, 14 safe R seats. Republican Leans (would take the total to 20 D, 16 R):
AD 4 Fiore (2014 race v. Hinton; 2012 v. Evans) Piro v. McArthur
Diff.

D
12,951
11,354

D%
38.99
42.35

R
12,417
14,239

R%
37.38
53.11

Difference
534
(2,885)

12,352
5,483

37.70
37.62

12,165
9,090

37.13
62.38

187
(3,607)

12,683
12,062

37.54
36.94

12,496
12,286

36.98
37.63

187
(224)

0
(411)

0.56
(0.69)

AD4 1/16

12,306

37.05

12,540

37.75

(234)

(10)/(421)

(0.70)

AD4 2/16

12,711

37.32

12,999

38.16

(288)

(54)/(475)

(0.84)

AD4
AD4
AD4
AD4
AD4

3/16
4/16
5/16
6/16
7/16

13,149
13,429
13,587
13,900
14,115

37.88
37.92
37.91
37.88
37.66

13,144
13,340
13,456
13,710
13,950

37.86
37.66
37.54
37.36
37.22

5
89
131
190
165

293/(182)
84/(98)
42/(56)
59/3
(25)/(22)

0.02
0.26
0.37
0.52
0.44

AD4 8/16

13,866

37.74

13,659

37.17

207

42/20

0.57

AD4 10/12
12
Results
AD4 10/14
14
Results
AD4 1/15
AD4 12/15

AD 37 Trowbridge (2014 race Duncan v. Mackin; 2012

D
D%
R
AD37
14,399
39.80
14,102
10/12
12
14,296
48.85
14,969
Results
AD37
13,126
38.13
13,423
10/14
14
6,362
35.97
10,855
Results

% Diff
1.61
(10.76)

% Diff.

0.57
(24.76)

Duncan v. Conklin) Lyttle v. Marchant

R%
Difference
Diff.
38.98
297

% Diff
0.82

51.15

(673)

(2.30)

38.99

(297)

(0.86)

61.37

(4,493)

(25.40)

(0.01)
(1.25)/
(1.26)
(0.01)/
(1.27)
(0.14)/
(1.41)
0.86/(0.55)
0.24/(0.31)
0.11/(0.20)
0.15/(0.05)
(0.08)/
(0.13)
0.13/0.00

% Diff.

AD37 1/15
AD37
12/15
AD37 1/16
AD37 2/16
AD37 3/16
AD37 4/16
AD37 5/16
AD37 6/16
AD37 7/16
AD37 8/16

13,373
12,598

37.97
37.33

13,666
13,269

38.80
39.32

(293)
(671)

4
(378)/(374)

(0.83)
(1.99)

12,781
13,125
13,508
13,744
13,879
14,126
14,334
14,028

37.38
37.65
38.19
38.25
38.25
38.22
38.24
38.24

13,464
13,819
13,920
14,027
14,110
14,302
14,393
14,071

39.37
39.64
39.35
39.04
38.89
38.70
38.40
38.36

(683)
(694)
(412)
(283)
(231)
(176)
(59)
(33)

(12)/(386)
(11)/(397)
282/(115)
129/14
52/66
55/121
117/238
26/264

(1.99)
(1.99)
(1.16)
(0.79)
(0.64)
(0.48)
(0.16)
(0.12)

0.03
(1.16)/
(1.13)
0/(1.13)
0/(1.13)
0.83/(0.30)
0.37/0.07
0.15/0.22
0.16/0.38
0.32/0.70
0.04/0.74

Contested Seats (Republicans must take all leans and all of these seats to retain control; all six were held by the
Democrats in 2012 and the Republicans in 2014):
AD 5 Nelson (2014 race v. Strasser; 2012 Dondero Loop v. Harrington) Miller v. Ham
AD5 10/12
12
Results
AD5 10/14
14
Results
AD5 1/15
AD5 12/15
AD5 1/16
AD5 2/16
AD5 3/16
AD5 4/16
AD5 5/16
AD5 6/16
AD5 7/16
AD5 8/16
AD 9 Gardner
AD9 10/12
12

D
12,873
12,200

D%
41.86
51.31

R
10,882
10,705

R%
35.38
45.02

Difference
1,991
1,495

11,584
5,304

40.84
43.15

9,868
6,988

34.79
56.85

1,716
(1,684)

11,879
11,005

40.93
40.34

10,017
9,591

34.51
35.15

1,862
1,414

11,181
40.44
9,726
35.18
1,455
11,585
40.93
10,017
35.39
1,568
11,987
41.64
10,096
35.07
1,891
12,273
41.75
10,203
34.71
2,070
12,399
41.68
10,289
34.58
2,110
12,644
41.60
10,442
34.36
2,202
12,787
41.34
10,574
34.18
2,213
12,607
41.41
10,309
33.86
2,298
(2014 race v. Yeager; 2012 Martin v. Hurst) Yeager v. Gardner
D
D%
R
R%
Difference
11,623
42.00
8,889
32.12
2,734
11,276
53.17
9,930
46.83
1,346

Diff.

% Diff
6.48
6.29

% Diff.

6.05
(13.70)
146
(448)/(302)

6.42
5.19

41/(261)
113/(148)
323/175
179/354
40/394
92/486
11/497
85/582

5.26
5.54
6.57
7.04
7.10
7.24
7.16
7.55

Diff.

% Diff
9.88
6.34

0.37
(1.23)/
(0.86)
0.07/(0.79)
0.28/(0.51)
1.03/0.52
0.47/0.99
0.06/1.05
0.14/1.19
(0.08)/1.11
0.39/1.50
% Diff.
27,672

Results
AD9 10/14
14
Results
AD9 1/15
AD9 12/15
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9
AD9

1/16
2/16
3/16
4/16
5/16
6/16
7/16
8/16

10,808
5,176

39.82
47.90

8,885
5,630

32.74
52.10

1,923
(454)

7.08
(4.20)

11,157
10,522

39.69
39.21

9,198
8,906

32.72
33.19

1,959
1,616

36
(343)/(307)

6.97
6.02

10,805
11,319
11,851
12,167
12,351
12,728
13,024
12,921

39.30
39.83
40.62
40.62
40.58
40.62
40.43
40.53

9,148
9,566
9,724
9,883
10,004
10,254
10,449
10,219

33.27
33.66
33.33
32.99
32.87
32.73
32.44
32.05

1,657
1,753
2,127
2,284
2,347
2,474
2,575
2,702

41/(266)
96/(170)
374/204
157/361
63/424
127/551
101/652
127/779

6.03
6.17
7.29
7.63
7.71
7.89
7.99
8.48

AD 21 Armstrong (2014 race v. Eisen; 2012 Eisen v. Harris) Fumo v. Armstrong

D
D%
R
R%
Difference
Diff.
AD21
12,692
41.52
10,330
33.79
2,362
10/12
12
12,123
50.07
11,343
46.85
780
Results
AD21
11,673
40.53
9,691
33.65
1,982
10/14
14
5,582
46.47
6,033
50.22
(451)
Results
AD21 1/15
11,920
40.46
9,864
33.48
2,056
74
AD21
11,040
39.98
9,382
33.98
1,658
(398)/(324)
12/15
AD21 1/16
11,249
40.15
9,542
34.06
1,707
49/(275)
AD21 2/16
11,621
40.61
9,856
34.44
1,765
58/(217)
AD21 3/16
12,062
41.34
9,948
34.09
2,114
349/132
AD21 4/16
12,270
41.28
10,060
33.85
2,210
96/228
AD21 5/16
12,374
41.16
10,137
33.72
2,237
27/255
AD21 6/16
12,594
41.02
10,304
33.56
2,290
53/308
AD21 7/16
12,779
40.91
10,423
33.36
2,356
66/374
AD21 8/16
12,473
40.75
10,201
33.32
2,272
(84)/290

% Diff
7.73

(0.11)
(0.95)/
(1.06)
0.01/(1.05)
0.14/(0.91)
1.12/0.21
0.34/0.55
0.08/0.63
0.18/0.81
0.10/0.91
0.49/1.40

% Diff.

3.22
6.88
(3.75)
6.98
6.00
6.09
6.17
7.25
7.43
7.44
7.46
7.55
7.43

0.10
(0.98)/
(0.88)
0.09/(0.79)
0.08/(0.71)
1.08/0.37
0.18/0.55
0.01/0.56
0.02/0.58
0.09/0.67
(0.12)/0.55

AD 29 Silberkraus (2014 race v. Cohen; 2012 Mastroluca v. Irwin) Cohen v. Silberkraus

D
D%
R
R%
Difference
Diff.
AD29
13,510
39.73
12,397
36.46
1,113
10/12
12
13,418
50.66
12,126
45.78
1,292
Results
AD29
12,360
38.29
11,586
35.89
774
10/14
14
6,171
45.23
7,474
54.77
(1,303)
Results
AD29 1/15
12,612
38.15
11,843
35.82
769
(5)
AD29
11,918
38.06
11,288
36.05
630
(139)/(144)
12/15
AD29 1/16
12,139
38.18
11,474
36.09
665
35/(109)
AD29 2/16
12,571
38.64
11,837
36.38
734
69/(40)
AD29 3/16
13,044
39.31
11,983
36.11
1,061
327/287
AD29 4/16
13,285
39.28
12,128
35.86
1,157
96/383
AD29 5/16
13,427
39.19
12,246
35.75
1,181
24/407
AD29 6/16
13,668
39.12
12,447
35.63
1,221
40/447
AD29 7/16
13,878
38.97
12,620
35.44
1,258
37/484
AD29 8/16
13,639
39.00
12,299
35.17
1,340
82/566

% Diff
3.27

% Diff.

4.88
2.40
(9.54)
2.33
2.01
2.09
2.26
3.20
3.42
3.44
3.49
3.53
3.83

(0.07)
(0.32)/
(0.39)
0.08/(0.31)
0.17/(0.14)
0.94/0.80
0.22/1.02
0.02/1.04
0.05/1.09
0.04/1.13
0.30/1.43

AD 35 Jones (2014 race v. Healey; 2012

D
D%
AD35
11,091
39.51
10/12
12
11,507
52.42
Results
AD35
11,313
37.99
10/14
14
5,332
46.74
Results
AD35 1/15
11,711
37.91
AD35
11,444
37.67
12/15
AD35 1/16
11,707
37.74

Healey v. Blanchard) Watkins v. Jones

R
R%
Difference
9,312
33.17
1,779

Diff.

% Diff
6.34

10,466

47.58

1,061

4.84

9,847

33.07

1,466

4.92

6,077

53.26

(745)

(6.52)

10,184
10,068

32.97
33.14

1,527
1,376

61
(151)/(90)

4.94
4.53

10,350

33.37

1,357

(19)/(109)

4.37

AD35 2/16

12,215

38.12

10,847

33.85

1,368

11/(98)

4.27

AD35
AD35
AD35
AD35
AD35
AD35

12,784
13,138
13,372
13,695
14,036
13,816

38.92
38.99
38.99
38.94
38.89
39.03

11,040
11,220
11,381
11,624
11,854
11,546

33.61
33.30
33.19
33.05
32.84
32.62

1,744
1,918
1,991
2,071
2,182
2,270

376/278
174/452
73/525
80/605
111/716
88/804

5.31
5.69
5.80
5.89
6.05
6.41

3/16
4/16
5/16
6/16
7/16
8/16

AD 41 Dooling (2014 race v. Aizley; 2012 Aizley v. Regeski) Jauregui v. Phillips

D
D%
R
R%
Difference
Diff.
AD41
11,584
41.18
9,483
33.71
2,101
10/12
12
11,680
54.19
9,872
45.81
1,808
Results
AD41
11,152
40.12
9,234
33.22
1,918
10/14
14
4,632
44.28
5,829
55.72
(1,197)
Results
AD41 1/15
11,478
40.10
9,477
33.11
2,001
83
AD41
10,824
39.47
9,190
33.51
1,634
(367)/(284)

% Diff
7.47

% Diff.

0.02
(0.41)/
(0.39)
(0.16)/
(0.55)
(0.10)/
(0.65)
1.04/0.39
0.38/0.77
0.11/0.88
0.09/0.97
0.16/1.13
0.36/1.49

% Diff.

8.38
6.90
(11.44)
6.99
5.96

0.09
(1.03)/

12/15
AD41 1/16

11,038

39.49

9,413

33.67

1,625

(9)/(293)

5.82

AD41
AD41
AD41
AD41
AD41
AD41
AD41

11,502
12,026
12,339
12,513
12,872
13,141
12,930

39.94
40.78
40.80
40.70
40.78
40.64
40.69

9,789
9,897
10,065
10,187
10,374
10,515
10,323

33.99
33.56
33.28
33.13
32.86
32.52
32.48

1,713
2,129
2,274
2,326
2,498
2,626
2,607

88/(205)
416/211
145/356
52/408
172/580
128/708
(19)/689

5.95
7.22
7.52
7.57
7.92
8.12
8.21

2/16
3/16
4/16
5/16
6/16
7/16
8/16

(0.94)
(0.14)/
(1.08)
0.13/(0.95)
1.27/0.32
0.30/0.62
0.05/0.67
0.35/1.02
0.20/1.22
0.09/1.31