Conditional Probability

STAT 400
August 29, 2016
Definition: If Ai and Aj are not independent, the joint probability is,
P (Ai Aj ) = P (Ai |Aj ) P (Aj )
P (Ai Aj ) = P (Aj |Ai ) P (Ai )
The probability of Ai given Aj is,
P (Ai |Aj ) =

P (Ai Aj )
P (Aj )

Notice that if Ai and Aj are independent that P (Ai |Aj ) = P (Ai ).

If P (B) > 0,
1. P (A|B) 0
2. P (B|B) = 1
3. If Ai are mutually exclusive events for i = 1 to k,


P ki=1 Ai |B =

k
X

P (Ai |B)

i=1

P (
i=1 Ai |B) =

P (Ai |B)

i=1

where the last equality includes a countable number of events.

STAT 400

Conditional Probability

Example 1: It is known that 30% of all the students at Anytown College live off campus. Suppose
also that 48% of all the students are females. Of the female students, 25% live off campus.
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected student is a female and lives off campus?
Note that the following table shows the probabilities for all of the events considered in
this problem.
Gender

Off-Campus

On-Campus

Total

Females

.12

0.36

0.48

Males

0.18

0.34

.52

Total

0.30

0.70

1.00

We can use the conditional probability identity to show that P (F OF F ) =

P (F ) P (OF F |F ) = (0.48) 0.25 = 0.12.
b. What proportion of off-campus students are female?

P (F |OF F ) =

0.12
2
P (F OF F )
=
=
P (OF F )
0.30
5

c. What proportion of male students live off-campus?

Note that P (M OF F ) = P (OF F ) P (F OF F ) = 0.18.

P (OF F |M ) =

P (M OF F )
0.18
9
=
=
0.346
P (M )
0.52
26

Stepanov, Culpepper

STAT 400

Conditional Probability

Example 2: Suppose that Joes Discount Store has received a shipment of 25 television sets, 5 of
which are defective. On the following day, 2 television sets are sold.
a. Find the probability that both of the television sets are defective (D).


P (D D) = P 1st Def ective P 2nd Def ective|1st Def ective =

5
25



4
1
=
24
30


b. Find the probability that at least one of the two television sets sold is defective.
We can approach this problem at least two ways. The first is to calculate the probability
that neither defective TV is sold and compute the compliment.

P (At least 1 D) = 1 P 1st N ot Def ective P 2nd N ot Def ective|1st N ot Def ective
20
=1
25




11
19
=
24
30


Alternatively, we could add the probabilities of 1 D and 2 Ds

P (At least 1 D) = P (D Dc ) + P (Dc D) + P (D D)

5
20
20
5
5
=
+
+
25
24
25
24
25
5
5
1
11
=
+
+
= .
30 30 30
30








4
24

Stepanov, Culpepper

STAT 400

Conditional Probability

Example 3 Cards are drawn one-by-one without replacement from a standard 52-card deck. What
is the probability of the following:
a. Both the first and second cards selected are Hearts (H)?
P (H H) =

1 12
1
=
4 51
17


b. The first two cards drawn are a H and Club (C) (or C and H)?
13
13
13
13
P (H C) + P (C H) =
+
52
51
52
51
  
  
13
1
13
1
=
=2
4
51
2
51






c. There are at least two Hs among the first three cards drawn?
Note that
P (at least 2 H in 3 draws|M ) =P (H H H) + P (H c H H) + P (H H c H)
+ P (H H H c )

These probabilities are presented below:

13
P (H H H) =
52




12
51



11
50

P (H c H H) =

39
52



13
51



12
50

P (H H c H) =

13
52



39
51



12
50

P (H H H c ) =

13
52



12
51



39
50

Adding these probabilities up yields

19,968
132,600

0.151.

Stepanov, Culpepper