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20052016
: 3 2016 .
a.naziev@rsu.edu.ru
1.
2.
3.
4.
4.1.
4.2.
5.
6.
7.
8. . .
8.1.
8.2.
8.3.
8.4.
9. .
10.
10.1.
10.2.
10.3.
10.4.
10.5.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
10.6.
10.7.
10.8.
10.9.
10.10.
.
-
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27.1.
27.2.
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28.
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P(B < 2) = 1; P(B 6 2) = 1; P(B < 0) = 0.
, B < 2 , , B < 2. : 2. 2.
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2.2.
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26
3.4. 2 (1, 1)
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.
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), .
A, ,
A, A, A.
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29
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A B ()( A B).
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B), : A B B A. :
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. .
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4:
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30
A
/ A.
A B A + B,
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B,
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A B A B.
AB, , A B,
A B A B. ,
A B, A B = A B.
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A B.
.
. .
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4:
31
4.2.
A P(A), A, , .
(P0) () A, P(A) > 0;
(P1) () P() = 1 ( );
(P2) () A B , P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B).
(P) ( ) A1 , A2 , . . . , An , . . . (. . Ai Aj = i 6= j), P(A1 + A2 + . . . + An + . . .) = P(A1 ) +
P(A2 ) + . . . + P(An ) + . . ..
, ,
.
(P0) (P2), (P). .
.
XVII .
. .
. .
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JJ
II
32
a A
( )
()
a A ( )
()
Toc
JJ
II
5:
33
. , ,
, . , .
: = , = .
: = {, }.
: .
: P() = P() = 12 .
: A
X
P(A) =
P().
A
, , A,
1
m
= ,
n
n
n = 2 ( "
\ ), m A ( ,
"
A\ ).
P(A) = m
5.2. .
6 , (
):
. .
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JJ
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123456
5:
34
( ),
. .
: i = i , i = 1, . . . , 6.
: = {1 , 2 , . . . , 6 }.
: .
:
P(1 ) = P(2 ) = . . . = P(6 ) =
1
.
6
: A
X
1
m
P(A) =
P() = m = ,
6
n
A
n = 6 ( () ), m A (
, A).
5.3. .
, .
.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
11 12 13 14 15 16
21 22 23 24 25 26
31 32 33 34 35 36
41 42 43 44 45 46
51 52 53 54 55 56
61 62 63 64 65 66
5:
35
,
. (i, j), i ,
, j , . (i, j) i, j = 1, . . . , 6,
.
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
. .
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1)
1)
1)
1)
1)
Toc
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(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
2)
2)
2)
2)
2)
2)
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3)
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3)
3)
3)
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4)
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5)
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6)
6)
6)
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6)
6)
5:
36
, . .
: ij = i , j , i, j =
1, . . . , 6. 36 .
: = {ij : i, j = 1, . . . , 6}.
: .
: P(ij ) =
1
36 .
: A
X
1
m
P(A) =
P() = m = ,
n
n
A
n = 36 ( ()
), m A ( , A).
5.4. .
.
, , .
, ,
, (i, j) (j, i) .
(i, j) (j, i) i, j, . ,
, ,
(i, j) i 6 j,
.
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
5:
(1, 1)
(1, 2)
(2, 2)
37
(1, 3)
(2, 3)
(3, 3)
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
4)
4)
4)
4)
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
5)
5)
5)
5)
5)
(1, 6)
(2, 6)
(3, 6)
(4, 6)
(5, 6)
(6, 6)
,
.
: ij = i , j , i 6 j, i, j =
1, . . . , 6. 21 .
: = {ij : i 6 j, i, j = 1, . . . , 6}.
: .
: P() =
1
21
: A
X
1
m
P(A) =
P() = m =
n
n
A
n = 21 ( ()
), m A ( , A).
. 6 , 7 8 17 ,
3 :
. .
Toc
JJ
II
5:
38
, i = j;
36
P(ij ) =
1 , i 6= j.
18
. .
Toc
JJ
II
5:
39
, 6 , ,
1
8 , , 18
, ,
1
36 (15 , 24 , 33 , 26 , 35 , 44 )
1
1
5
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+ 36
, 36
. ,
7 , 16 , 25 , 34 ,
1
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, 16 .
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, , a, b c.
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.
abc
c
ab
b
ac
abc
ab
c
a
bc
abc
b
ac
a
bc
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ac
b
a
b
c
ab
c
a
bc
a
c
b
ac
b
bc
a
b
a
c
ac
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b
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bc
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c
ab
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a
b
bc
a
b
ac
c
b
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: . 27 .
, .
: = {i : i = 1, . . . , 27}.
: .
. .
JJ
II
Toc
5:
: P(i ) =
40
1
27 .
: A
X
m
P(A) =
P() = ,
n
A
n = 27 ( ()
), m A ( , A).
5.6. .
, ,
. , ,
. .
1
10
, ,
.
: 1 , . . . , 10 .
10 .
: = {i : i = 1, . . . , 10}.
: .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
5:
: P(i ) =
41
1
10 .
: A
X
m
P(A) =
P() = ,
n
A
n = 10 ( ), m A ( ,
A).
, ( , ).
, 27 ,
10 . ,
10 , , (
) 27 .
27 ( S), (S1 ) 10 .
1 , 2 , 3
S, S1 1
27
.
4 , . . . , 9 S,
1
= 91 .
S1 3 27
, , ,
, S, S1
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
42
1
6 27
= 92 .
.
: 1 , . . . , 10 . 10 .
.
: = {i : i = 1, . . . , 10}.
: .
:
i
pi
10
1
27
1
27
1
27
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
2
9
: A
X
P(A) =
P().
A
,
, ,
.
5.1. .
6.
.
. . , , .
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
6:
43
6.1.
A, B, C:
0 A ;
1 AB A A A + B;
2 A B B C, A C;
3 A B B A, A = B.
6.2 ( ).
A, B, C:
1 A + = ;
2 A + = A;
3 A + A = A;
4 A + B = B + A;
5 A + (B + C) = (A + B) + C.
6.3 ( ).
A, B, C:
1 A = A;
2 A = ;
3 A A = A;
4 A B = B A;
5 A (B C) = (A B) C.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
6:
44
6.4 ( ).
A, B, C:
1 A (B + C) = (A B) + (A C);
2 A + (B C) = (A + B) (A + C).
6.5 ( ).
A B,
A B, AB = A A + B = B.
,
A (A + B) = A
AB + A = A.
6.6 ( ).
A, B, C:
1 = ;
2 = ;
3 A A = ;
4 A + A = ;
5 A = A;
6 A B = A + B;
7 A + B = A B.
6.1. .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
45
7.
7.1. , P , A,
B, A1 , A2 , . . . . :
0 P() = 0;
1 P() = 1;
2 A B, P(A) 6 P(B);
3 0 6 P(A) 6 1;
4 A B = , P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B); ,
Ai Aj = i 6= j, P(A1 + . . . + Ar ) = P(A1 ) + . . . + P(Ar );
5 P(A) = 1 P(A).
. .
2 A B. n, a A, b
B. A B, ,
A, , B. , a 6 b,
a
b
P(A) = 6 = P(B).
n
n
3 A : A . P() 6 P(A) 6 P().
P() = 0, P() = 1. , 0 6 P(A) 6 1.
4 A B = . n, a
A, b B. A B = , , . .
Toc
JJ
II
7:
46
A, , B.
, A + B a + b .
a+b
a
b
P(A + B) =
= + = P(A) + P(B).
n
n n
5 , A + A = A A = .
P(A) + P(A) = P() = 1,
.
7.1.
7.2.
7.3.
7.4.
7.5.
,
,
,
,
,
P(A) = 0, , B, P(AB) = 0.
P(A + B) = 0, P(A) = P(B) = 0.
P(A) = 1 P(B) = 1, P(A + B) = 1.
P(AB) = 1, P(A) = P(B) = 1.
P(A) = 1, , B, P(AB) = P(B).
1. , P(AB) = P(A)P(B)!
4
.
7.1. , .
8 , 0,48. , . 7 ,
0,54. , . 8 .
.
A = h. 8 i,
. .
B = h. 8 i,
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
7:
47
C = h. 7 i.
, 7 8 .
C = A + B, A B (AB = ).
4
P(C) = P(A) + P(B),
Toc
JJ
II
7:
48
B = (B A) + AB,
A + B = (A B) + AB + (B A).
2
3
. (1)
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).
. .
P(A) >
2
,
3
Toc
JJ
P(B) >
II
2
,
3
P(A + B) 6 1.
J
7:
,
P(AB) >
49
2 2
1
+ 1= ,
3 3
3
.
(1)
:
P(A + B + C) = P(A + B) + P(C) P((A + B) C)
= P(A) + P(B) P(AB) + P(C) P((AC) + (BC))
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) (P(AC) + P(BC) P((AC) (BC)))
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(AC) + P(ABC).
, .
7.7. .
7.3. P(A) = a, P(B) = b, P(AB) = c. P(AB).
. , B, ,
A, . , B = AB + AB,
. , P(B) = P(AB) + P(AB), P(AB) = P(B)
P(AB) = b c.
7.8. P(A) = a, P(B) = b, P(AB) = c. : P(A); P(B); P(AB);
P(AB); P(AB); P(A + B); P(A + B); P(A + B); P(A + (AB)); P(A(A + B)).
7.9. .
4/5. , 3/5.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
7:
50
7.10. .
4/5. , 2/5.
7.11. . 4/5. , 1/5.
7.12. , 1/2, , 1/6.
. ,
P(A + B + C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(BC) + P(ABC),
P(A + B + C) > P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(AC),
, ,
P(AB) + P(AC) + P(AC) > P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(A + B + C).
P(A) >
1
,
2
P(B) >
1
,
2
P(C) >
1
,
2
P(A + B + C) 6 1,
1 1 1
1
+ + 1= .
2 2 2
2
16 , 21 .
. , 61 , .
P(AB) + P(AC) + P(AC) >
. .
Toc
JJ
II
51
8. . .
8.1.
(1)
.
. , . , .
8.1.
12 21 , , ,
, ,
1
4 , !
,
: AB = P(A) 6= 0 P(B) 6= 0, P(AB) = 0 6= P(A)P(B).
.
8.2. A , 0
1. P(AA) = P(A) 6= (P(A))2 .
B ,
A. PA (B) P(B|A).
, )
) .
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
8: . .
52
8.3. 54 . ,
. 37 54 . . 7- ,
.
) , . ,
?
) , . ,
?
) , . ,
?
) , . ,
?
) , . ,
?
. ) 54 , 27 .
1
27
54 , . . 2 .
) 54 , 18 .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
53
1
18
54 , . . 3 .
) 54 , 9 .
9
54
, . . 61 .
) 18 , 9 ().
, ,
9
18
, . . 12 .
) 27 , 9 () .
, ,
9
, . . 13 .
27
, ), ), )
, )
, ) , )
. : );
); ).
( ).
8.4. n () , a
A, c AB. ,
A. ,
B?
, A, B AB. .
. , , A, a , A. B . .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
54
, AB. c. ,
B c a:
c
P(B|A) = .
a
c
c a
= : = P(AB) : P(A).
a
n n
,
P(AB)
P(B|A) =
.
(2)
P(A)
. , , (2)
,
A , , : P(A) 6= 0.
8.1. A , 0, B . B , A, P(B|A) ,
P(AB)
P(B|A) =
.
(3)
P(A)
, P(A) = 0, P(B|A) .
(3) .
8.5. , 5 , 2/3,
, 50 , 0,5. ,
, 5 , 50 ?
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
8: . .
55
.
A = h 5 i,
B = h 50 i.
P(A) = 23 , P(B) = 12 . P(B|A).
P(AB)
.
P(B|A) =
P(A)
AB = B (, 50 , 5 ).
P(B|A) =
P(B)
=
P(A)
1
2
2
3
3
= 0, 75.
4
P(B)
.
P(A)
8.2. , P(A) 6= 0 A B, P(B|A) = 1.
8.3. , P(A) 6= 0 B A = , P(B|A) = 0.
8.4. . . , )
, ) ?
8.1. , P(A) 6= 0 B A, P(B|A) =
8.2.
, . , .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
56
8.1 ( ). A B,
P(A) 6= 0, P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A).
8.1. P(A) 6= 0 . , P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A)
, P(A) 6= 0. P(A) = 0? P(AB) ,
, P(AB) = 0 (. 7.1). ,
:
0,
P(A) = 0;
P(AB) =
P(A) P(B|A), P(A) 6= 0.
(8.1) ,
. , :
P(ABC) = P(AB)P(C|AB)
= P(A)P(B|A)P(C|AB);
P(ABCD) = P(ABC)P(D|ABC)
= P(A)P(B|A)P(C|AB)P(D|ABC),
,
P(A1 A2 A3 . . . Ak ) = P(A1 )P(A2 |A1 )P(A3 |A1 A2 ) . . . P(Ak |A1 A2 . . . Ak1 ),
(, , P(A1 A2 . . . Ak1 ) 6= 0).
8.5. : 4 , 3 2 . , . , ( A),
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
8: . .
57
( B), ( C)?
1
3
1
4
4
7
8.6. : 4 , 3 2 .
( ). ,
?
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
2
9
1
8
3
9
p1 =
3
8
1
3
58
p2 =
2
9
3
8
3
7
1
12
p3 =
2
9
1
8
3
7
1
84
:
p = p1 + p2 + p3 =
. .
Toc
JJ
1
1
1
28 + 7 + 1
3
+
+
=
= .
3 12 84
84
7
II
8: . .
59
8.7. : ,
, , . ,
0,8 , . 3 ,
. , 6
.
. .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
6
0,8
0,8
0,8
60
0,2
0,2
0,2
0,8
0,8
0,2
0,2
0,2
0,8
0,2
0,8
, .
:
, , 0,8; ,
, 0,2.
3 6 .
4:
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
8: . .
61
, , , .
, ,
.
P() = 0, 8 0, 8 0, 2,
P() = 0, 8 0, 2 0, 8,
P() = 0, 2 0, 2 0, 2,
P() = 0, 2 0, 8 0, 8.
0, 8 0, 8 0, 2 + 0, 8 0, 2 0, 8 + 0, 2 0, 2 0, 2 + 0, 2 0, 8 0, 8 = 3 (0, 8)2 0, 2 + (0, 2)3 = 0, 392.
8.6. : , , , . , 0,8 , . 3
, . , 5
.
8.3.
.
B A,
(4)
P(B|A) = P(B)
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
62
( A B).
, P(A) 6= 0.
(2) B A
P(AB)
= P(B),
P(A)
8: . .
63
(4) (6) .
P(A) 6= 0
8.7. ,
, A B
P(B) 6= 0
P(B|A) = P(B)
,
.
P(A|B) = P(A)
8.8. , A B ,
: B A; A B; A B; A B.
2. .
, , . ,
, .
, , . , ( A) ( B) , : P(B) = 1/2, P(B|A) = 0.
.
8.9. , ,
, . , : , , . ,
. , ,
, .
, . .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
64
8.8. Q . 1/2, . , Q1 , ,
. , Q2 , ,
, . , , ?
. 1: ?
. , ,
, , .
, . ,
, . .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
65
( !).
, , ,
,
.
,
(, , , ).
, .
.
8.9. A B , P(A) = P(B) P(A + B) = 0, 64.
P(A).
. (1)
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).
A B , P(AB) = P(A)P(B) = (P(A))2 . ,
2P(A) (P(A))2 = 0, 64,
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
66
:
8.10. A B , P(A) = P(B) P(A + B) = 0, 64.
P(A).
. . A B , P(A+B) =
P(A) + P(B). A B , P(A) + P(B) = 2P(A).
, 2P(A) = 0, 64, P(A) = 0, 32.
, ()
.
8.11. .
A = h 4i,
B = h 6i,
C = h i.
, A C, B C. ( -
?)
. , , A, , B ,
:
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
00010203040506
111213141516
2223242526
33343536
444546
5556
66
67
28. 4 , 7
. , P(C|A) = 31 . 7, , P(C) = 28
= 14 .
P(C|A) 6= P(C), A C .
6 , .
P(C|B) = 41 . P(C) = 14 . , P(C|B) = P(C). , B
C .
8.10. A B , P(A) = P(B) P(A + B) = 1.
P(A).
8.11. (36 )
. A , , B
, . ,
A B. ( ?)
8.12. . ,
.
8.13. P(A) = P(B) = 21 , P(A + B) = 13 .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
68
A B? P(A + B) = 34 ?
.
.
8.14. . 0,7, 0,8. ,
:
) ?
) ?
) . , . ?
) . , . ?
) ?
) ?
) ? ) . , , . ?
) . , , ?
) . , , ?
) . , , ?
: , ,
, , .
8.15. . 0,7, 0,8. . ?
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
69
8.4.
.
, .
.
A1 , A2 , A3 - . ? , A1 ,
A2 , A3 ,
P(A1 A2 A3 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 ).
( ).1
1 .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
70
8.12. . X
.
A1 = hX = 2i;
A2 = hX i;
A3 = hX = 0i.
, A1 A2 . ( , : P(A1 ) = 16 ,
P(A2 ) = 21 , A1 A2 , A1 A2 = A1 , P(A1 A2 ) = P(A1 ) = 16 , P(A1 )P(A2 ) =
1 1
1
6 2 = 12 6= P(A1 A2 ).) P(A3 ) = 0,
1 1
0 = P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 ).
6 2
, , . ,
.
P(A1 A2 A3 ) = 0 =
, : A1 , A2 , A3 , .
, .
8.3. A1 , A2 ,. . . , An ,
.
, . .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
71
8.4. , A1 , A2 , A3 ,
, , ,
P(A1 A2 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 ),
P(A1 A3 ) = P(A1 )P(A3 ),
P(A2 A3 ) = P(A2 )P(A3 ),
P(A1 A2 A3 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 ).
: , , - .
: 1) ?; 2)
? : .
() .
( ) .
, .. .
8.13. = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 } .
A1 = {1 , 4 } ,
A2 = {2 , 4 } ,
A3 = {3 , 4 } ,
A4 = {4 } .
, A1 , A2 , A3 , .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
8: . .
72
. ,
A1 A2 = A1 A3 = A2 A3 = A1 A2 A3 = A4 ,
1
,
2
1
.
4
1
,
4
1
.
8
,
P(A1 A2 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 ),
P(A1 A3 ) = P(A1 )P(A3 ),
P(A2 A3 ) = P(A2 )P(A3 ),
Toc
JJ
II
9: .
73
A1 , A2 , A3 , A4 , A5 ,
P(A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 )P(A4 )P(A5 ). .
.
8.5. , A1 , A2 , . . . , An (, , ), , k 6 n
j1 , j2 , . . . , jk {1, 2, . . . , n},
P(Aj1 Aj2 . . . Ajk ) = P(Aj1 )P(Aj2 ) . . . P(Ajk ).
8.16. , n = 4. ?
8.17. n > 2.
n ?
9. .
9.1. H1 , . . . , Hn , A, . . A H1 + . . . + Hn
(. . 2).
P(A) = P(H1 )P(A|H1 ) + . . . + P(Hn )P(A|Hn ).
.
. A H1 + . . . + Hn . ,
A = A(H1 + . . . + Hn ) = AH1 + . . . + AHn = H1 A + . . . + Hn A.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
9: .
H1
H2
...
74
Hn
. 2: 9.1.
H1 , . . . , Hn .
H1 A, . . . , Hn A. ( 8.1)
, , P(H1 )P(A|H1 ), . . . , P(Hn )P(A|Hn ).
P(A) = P(H1 A + . . . + Hn A)
= P(H1 A) + . . . + P(Hn A)
= P(H1 )P(A|H1 ) + . . . + P(Hn )P(A|Hn ),
.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
9: .
75
. , Hi ?
. ,
A. A
H1 , . . . , Hn , , A
H1 , . . . , Hn . ,
: , H1 , . . . , Hn ,
A.
9.2. , ,
A . , i = 1, . . . , n,
P(Hi |A) =
P(Hi )P(A|Hi )
.
P(H1 )P(A|H1 ) + . . . + P(Hn )P(A|Hn )
. ,
P(A), .
. . ,
A Hi = Hi A
:
P(A) P(Hi |A) = P(Hi ) P(A|Hi ).
P(Hi ) P(A|Hi )
,
P(A)
(, , P(A) = P(H1 )P(A|H1 )+
. . . + P(Hn )P(A|Hn )).
P(Hi |A) =
. .
Toc
JJ
II
9: .
76
. , A ?
9.1. , 60% ,
25%, 15%. 1% , 1,5%,
2%.
1) . , ?
2) . ,
?
.
A = ,
H1 = 1- ,
H2 = 2- ,
H3 = 3- .
P(H1 ) = 0, 6,
P(H2 ) = 0, 25,
P(H3 ) = 0, 15,
1)
P(A|H1 ) = 0, 01,
P(A|H2 ) = 0, 015,
P(A|H3 ) = 0, 02.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
9: .
77
2)
P(H1 |A) =
P(H1 ) P(A|H1 )
0, 6 0, 01
=
= 0, 047 . . . .
P(A)
0, 01275
. .
Toc
P(H1 ) P(A|H1 )
0, 6 0, 1
3
=
=
;
0, 26
13
P(A)
JJ
II
9: .
P(H2 |A) =
78
P(H2 ) P(A|H2 )
0, 4 0, 5
10
=
=
.
0, 26
13
P(A)
, ,
, ,
. , .
2) . , . , .
: .
.
B , , . ,
P(B|H1 ) = (P(A|H1 ))2 = (0, 1)2 = 0, 01;
P(B|H2 ) = (P(A|H2 ))2 = (0, 5)2 = 0, 25.
P(B) = P(H1 ) P(B|H1 ) + P(H2 ) P(B|H2 ) = 0, 6 0, 01 + 0, 4 0, 25 = 0, 106.
, ,
P(H1 ) P(B|H1 )
0, 6 0, 01
6
=
=
;
P(B)
0, 106
106
P(H2 ) P(B|H2 )
0, 4 0, 25
100
P(H2 |B) =
=
=
.
P(B)
0, 106
106
P(H1 |B) =
. .
Toc
JJ
II
9: .
79
, ,
! ,
.
, , , .
9.3 ( ). , , , , , , A, B C.
, , .
, , ,
. , , . ,
, . , ? :
?
. ,
, , 12 . , ,
.
, A,
B ( ). MB
e X, X
B, X
e B
eC
e . :
{A, B, C}. , A,
e = 1 , B C ;
P(MB|A)
2
. .
Toc
JJ
II
9: .
80
e = 0, ,
P(MB|B)
;
e = 1, B, P(MB|C)
C.
e
e
P(A|MB)
P(C|MB),
,
A C, , B.
:
e P(A)
e
P(MB|A)
e
P(A|MB)
=
e P(A)
e + P(MB|B)
e P(B)
e + P(MB|C)
e P(C)
e
P(MB|A)
=
=
1
2
1
2
1
3
+0
1
3
1
3
+1
1
3
1
;
3
e
P(C|MB)
=
=
e P(C)
e
P(MB|C)
e P(A)
e + P(MB|B)
e P(B)
e + P(MB|C)
e P(C)
e
P(MB|A)
1
1
2
1
3
+0
1
3
1
3
+1
1
3
2
.
3
, ,
!
=
. .
Toc
JJ
II
81
10.
10.1.
10.1. 10 . 12 .
, ?
. - , , 1-, 2-, 3-, . . .
1- 10 .
10 2- . 10 10, . . 102
. 102
10 3- . 102 10, . . 103
. 9 , , 12
1012 .
10.2. n . k .
, ?
. 1-, 2-, 3-, . . 1- n
. n 2- .
n n, . . n2 .
n2 n 3- . n2 n, . . n3 .
k 3 , , k nk .
, , (
, , ).
. .
Toc
JJ
II
10:
82
k k
n . An (A arrangement,
).
k
An = nk .
,
.
10.3. k- ?
. .
S1 S S ,
S1 , . , H0
H1 . H1 S1 , H0 .
, ,
k , , ,
2k .
10.1. . ( 32 , )?
10.2.
10.4. 10 . 7 . ,
?
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
10:
83
. ) 1- 10 .
9 , , 9 2-
. 10 9, .. 10 9 10
.
) 10 9 .
8 , , 8 3- .
10 9 8, .. 10 9 8 10
.
) 10 9 8 .
7 , , 7 4- .
10 9 8 7, .. 10 9 8 7 4-
10 .
...
) 10 9 8 . . . 5 .
4 , , 4
7- . 10 9 8 . . . 5 4, . . 10 9 8 7 . . . 5 4
7 10 .
10.5. n , k . ,
?
. Akn . 1- n : A1n = n. n 1
, , n 1 2- . 2-x
. .
Toc
JJ
II
10:
84
A1n n 1 ,
A2n = A1n (n 2) = n (n 1).
, 3- n 2
, , n 2 . 3-x A2n
(n 2) ,
A3n = A2n (n 2) = n (n 1) (n 2).
k- , (k 1) n ,
n (k 1) , , n (k 1) .
k Ak1
n (k 1) ,
n
Akn = Ak1
(n (k 1)) = n (n 1) . . . (n (k 1)).
n
,
Akn = n (n 1) . . . (n (k 1)) .
10.1. :
, k > n. 7 5
, ?
. (, ,
5, 5.)
( !).
. .
Toc
JJ
II
10:
85
10.3.
An
n , n n,
: n-, Pn . k = n, n (k 1) =
n (n 1) = 1. n 1 (
1 n, ).
n! -.
,
Pn = An
n = n (n 1) . . . 2 1 = n!.
1! = 1,
0! = 1.
:
0! = 1; 1! = 1; 2! = 1 2 = 2;
3! = 1 2 3 = 2! 3 = 2 3 = 6;
4! = 1 2 3 4 = 3! 4 = 6 4 = 24;
5! = 1 2 3 4 5 = 4! 5 = 24 5 = 120.
10.1. 10!.
10.6. k ?
. k .
k 1 .
k k 1, k (k 1) .
k 2 . k (k 1) (k 2)
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
10:
86
. . , k-,
, . k (k 1) . . . 1 = k!
.
10.4.
, k 6 n. , k 6 n.
n k > 0. , (n k)! :
Akn = n (n 1) . . . (n (k 1))
n (n 1) . . . (n (k 1)) (n k) . . . 1
(n k) . . . 1
n!
.
=
(n k)!
=
, :
Akn =
n!
.
(n k)!
. n . k
: , , . . . , k-.
, n
k , -
. .
Toc
JJ
II
10:
87
. ,
n k ,
) )
k n.
n k\ .
"
,
(7)
k- ,
k .
10.2. 1 2; 1, 2, 3; 1, 2, 3, 4.
10.5.
10.7. n , k .
n k
?
. (7). ,
Akn =
k n
k
( ) k n
Ckn , k k!.
:
Akn = Ckn k!,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
10:
88
Akn
.
k!
k n
n k , , Ckn ( ) n
k ( ).
,
n
n!
k
Cn =
=
.
k
k!(n k)!
Ckn =
10.6.
10.2. A B 6 , B C
4 . , B, A C?
10.3.
. 16
. ?
10.4. 16 .
. ?
10.5.
. 323 . ?
10.6. .
156 . ?
10.7. ,
?
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
10:
89
10.8. ,
. ?
10.9. 7 5 :
, , , , .
,
?
10.10.
, ,
. ,
11 ? ,
?
10.11. ,
?
10.12. ,
?
10.13. ,
?
10.14. ,
, ?
10.15. ,
, ?
. .
Toc
JJ
II
10:
90
10.7.
Ckn . , , . Ckn , .
10.1. n k:
0 C0n = Cn
n = 1;
1 C1n = n;
2 Ckn = Cnk
;
n
3 Ckn + Ck+1
= Ck+1
n
n+1 ( ).
.
3.
Ckn + Ck+1
=
n
=
=
=
=
n!
n!
+
=
k!(n k)! (k + 1)!(n (k + 1))!
1
n!
1
=
+
k!(n (k + 1))! n k k + 1
n!
n+1
=
k!(n (k + 1))! (k + 1)(n k)
(n + 1)!
=
(k + 1)!(n k)!
(n + 1)!
=
(k + 1)!((n + 1) (k + 1))!
= Ck+1
n+1 .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
10:
91
10.16. .
, 10.1, Ckn
:
C00
C01
C11
+
C02
C12
+
C03
C04
C05
C22
+
C13
C23
C33
C14
C24
C34
C44
C15
C25
C35
C45
C55
...................................................
. , , 3, ,
( ) .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
10:
92
1
1
1
+
2
+
3
+
1
1
1
+
3
+
1
+
10
10
.............................................
.
10.8.
10.2. m, n p, p 6 min{m, n},
:
p
P
1 Cp
Ckm Cpk
;
n
m+n =
k=0
2 Cn
2n =
n
P
(Ckn )2 .
k=0
.
. .
1 . p
Toc
JJ
II
10:
93
m + n. - m , S1 ,
, S2 . p p + 1 : 0) 0 S1 , p
S2 , 1) 1- S1 , p 1- S2 , . . . , p 1)
p 1- S1 , 1- S2 , , , p) p
S1 , 0 S2 . : 0) C0m Cp0
n
;
.
.
.
; 1) C1m Cp1
n
k) Ckm Cpk
; . . . p1)
n
p(p1)
pp
Cp1
Cn
; p) Cp
m
m Cn
.
0
C0m Cp0
+ C1m Cp1
+ . . . Ckm Cpk
+ . . . + Cp1
C1n + Cp
n
n
n
m
m Cn
, .
10.9.
10.3. a b
n,
n
X
n nk k
n
a
b =
(a + b) =
k
k=0
n n 0
n n1
n
n
n 0 n
2 n2
n1
=
a b +
a
b + ... +
a b
+
ab
+
a b =
0
1
n2
n1
n
n(n 1) n2 2
n(n 1) 2 n2
= an + nan1 b +
a
b + ... +
a b
+ nabn1 + bn .
2
2
. .
Toc
JJ
II
10:
94
. ,
(a + b)n = (a + b) (a + b) . . . (a + b),
(a + b) n .
. n, a b, .
ank bk , k b, a.
?
, k n,
n
.
,
, ank bk
k
n
k . .
10.10.
, n k 6 n:
n
P
n
n
10.17.
k =2 .
10.18.
10.19.
k=0
n
P
k=0
n
P
(1)k
n
k
= 0.
(1)k 2nk
k=0
n
P
n
k
= 1.
n
9k n
k = 10 .
k=0
n1
10.21. k n
k = n k1 .
n
P
n1
10.22.
k n
.
k = n2
10.20.
k=0
. .
Toc
JJ
II
95
10.23.
10.24.
n
P
k=0
n
P
(1)k1 k
(k + 1)
k=0
n
k
n
k
= 0.
= (n + 2)2n1 .
11.
11.1 ( ). N , K
. n . ,
k ?
. n N Cn
N . .
.
k K CkK . nk
. N K. n k
nk
N K CNK
. ,
nk
CkK CNK ,
CkK Cnk
NK
.
Cn
N
11.1. 10 , 6 .
5 . , 3 ?
11.2. 10 . 2 .
2
, , 15
. ?
. .
Toc
JJ
II
11:
96
11.2 ( ). k .
, ?
. , k . 365k (?).
, , A ,
. , A,
, k .
? , k 365 . ,
, Ak365 . , , k
Ak365
365 364 . . . (365 (k 1))
=
.
k
365
365k
:
P(A) =
10
22
23
30
60
P(A)
0,027 0,117 0,476 0,507 0,706 0,994
( , , ). ,
23 ,
, , , ,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
11:
97
60, !
.
11.3. k , 10 .
, ?
A :
k
10
11
12
...
P(A)
P(A)
( k > 10 Akn ( )).
(-9).
11.4. 4 , 6 , 7 5 .
. ,
, .
11.5. : , , , , , , , .
,
?
11.6. : , , , , , .
,
?
11.7. 4 6 .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
98
3 . , ? ? ?
11.8. 60 , , 50.
. , ?
12. .
12.1. A ,
A. A , A
, .
, .
p. ,
1 p. q.
,
p = P(),
q = 1 p = 1 P() = P() .
n n
, Pn (k) , n k . , Pn (k)
hn = ki:
Pn (k) = P(n = k).
.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
12: .
99
, Pn (k) p, n, k. .
12.1. 5 p.
, 2 5 ?
. 5-
, , . , , , , , ,
. . . , , .
,
.
, ,
, , , ,
.
,
.
pqqpq = p2 q3 .
, .
? , . , ,
C25 . , C25 ,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
12: .
100
. ( , , ). P5 (2)
, , C25 p2 q3 :
P5 (2) = C25 p2 q3 .
.
12.2. n p.
, n k ?
, , :
n!
pk qnk .
Pn (k) = Ckn pk qnk =
k!(n k)!
.
12.3. 5 . , :
) 2 , ) , ) .
. , . .
p = q = 0, 5.
) n = 5, k = 2. :
2 3
5!
1
1
10
5
2
P5 (2) = C5
= 2!3!
=
=
.
2
2
25
32
16
. .
Toc
JJ
II
12: .
101
) n = 5, k < 2, . . n = 5 k = 0, 1. :
5
2 3
1
1
1
1+5
3
P5 (k < 2) = P5 (0) + P5 (1) = C05
+ C15
=
=
.
2
2
2
32
16
) n = 5, k > 2, . . n = 5 , k < 2.
13
3
=
.
P5 (k > 2) = 1 P5 (k < 2) = 1
16
16
12.4. . ,
?
. .
31 (?). :
4 3
1
2
1 8
280
P7 (4) = C37
= 35
=
.
3
3
81 27
2187
12.5. . ,
?
. . 13 . 6 > 3, : 6 = 4, 6 = 5, 6 = 6.
. :
P(6 > 3) = P6 (4) + P6 (5) + P6 (6)
4 2
5 1
6 0
1
2
1
2
1
2
4
5
6
= C6
+ C6
+ C6
3
3
3
3
3
3
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
12: .
102
6
1
=
(15 22 + 5 21 + 1 20 )
3
71
.
=
729
12.6. - .
, , p = 0, 4. 5
,
. :
?
. , . 3, 4 5. :
P(k > 3) = P5 (3) + P5 (4) + P5 (5) =
= C35 (0, 4)3 (0, 6)2 + C45 (0, 4)4 (0, 6)1 + C55 (0, 4)5 (0, 6)0 =
= 10 0, 064 0, 36 + 5 0, 256 0, 6 + 1 0, 01024 1 =
= 0, 31744.
. , , .
!
12.1. ) ,
. ?
) , , , .
?
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
103
12.2. 5 . ) ,
. )
5 .
12.3. 5 . ) : 4- 2- ? )
5 .
12.4. 5 . ) ,
. ) 5 .
12.5. 5 . ) :
? )
5 .
12.6. 25 .
, ,
. ,
, 7 ?
12.7 ( ).
, 12 ?
13.
13.1. 1 10 . 0, 5. , 0, 1,
. . . , 10 .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
13:
104
. n = 10, p = q = 21 k = 0,
p = q
1, 2, . . . 10. , , Ckn = Cnk
n
Pn (k) = Pn (n k), , k,
10
1
1
1
k nk
k nk
n
p q
=p p
=p =
.
= 10 =
2
2
1024
:
1
1
=
;
1024
1024
1
10
P10 (1) = P10 (9) = C110
=
;
1024
1024
45
1
=
;
P10 (2) = P10 (8) = C210
1024
1024
1
120
P10 (3) = P10 (7) = C310
=
;
1024
1024
1
210
P10 (4) = P10 (6) = C410
=
;
1024
1024
1
252
P10 (5) = C510
=
.
1024
1024
, Pn (k) , , . P10 (5). , .
. , 252
. 0, 5, , 1024
,
.
P10 (0) = P10 (10) = C010
. .
Toc
JJ
II
13:
105
. , n : k Pn (k)
, , .
, n ,
k Pn (k) < Pn (k + 1). :
k+1 k n(k+1)
Pn (k) < Pn (k + 1) Ckn pk qnk < Cn
p q
n!pk+1 qn(k+1)
n!pk qnk
<
k!(n k)!
(k + 1)!(n (k + 1))!
q
p
<
nk
k+1
(k + 1)q < (n k)p
k(p + q) < np q
k < np q.
,
,
Pn (k) > Pn (k + 1) k > np q
Pn (k) = Pn (k + 1) k = np q.
Pn (k). , , k 6 np q, , k > np q.
, Pn (k) , k np q,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
13:
106
k 1 6 np q k > np q.
k k0 , k0 :
k0 1 6 np q k0 > np q,
, ,
k0 6 np q + 1 k0 > np q.
np q 6 k0 6 np q + 1 = np + p.
. Pn (k) k0 ,
np q 6 k0 6 np + p.
np q , k0 : k0 = np q k0 = np + p.
np q ( ), Pn (k)
k0 , .
13.1. k = k0 , Pn (k) ,
A n .
: n
, A p,
k0 ,
np q 6 k0 6 np + p.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
13:
107
( np q ), (
np q ). , np ,
A n .
13.2. ) 8, ) 9 , 0,8
. k0 ?
. p = 0, 8, q = 0, 2. ) n = 8
8 0, 8 0, 2 6 k0 6 8 0, 8 + 0, 8,
k0 = 7.
) n = 9
9 0, 8 0, 2 6 k0 6 9 0, 8 + 0, 8,
7 6 k0 6 8,
k0 = 7 8.
13.1. 16 . ? ?
17 ? 210 ? 211 ? 4000 ? 4001 ?
13.2. 10 .
? ? 11? 12? 13? 14? 15? (
0,5.)
13.3. 15 .
, 6 ? 5 ? ?
30 ? 31 ? 32 ? 33 ? 34 ? 35 ? 36 ?
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
108
13.4. 35 . , ? ? ? ?
50 ? 75 ? 100 ? 150 ?
13.5.
15 . , 9? 10? 11? 12? ? ?
? ? 16 ?
17 ? 18 ? 19 ? 20 ? 21 ? 50 ? 75 ? 100 ? 150 ?
13.6. 99 . 60. ?
14. -
Pn (k) n k
. , . ,
:
1 2
1
(x) = e 2 x .
2
, .
14.1. .
,
, , . .
Toc
JJ
II
14: -
109
, . ,
x.
14.1 ( -). n p,
0 < p < 1. n
1
Pn (k)
(x),
npq
1 2
1
(x) = e 2 x ,
2
k np
x=
.
npq
n , p n. : npq. ,
npq > 10.
14.1. 0,3. , 100 60 .
.
, .
n = 100, p = 0, 7, q = 0, 3, k = 60. npq = 100 0, 7 0, 3 = 21 > 10,
-.
:
Toc
JJ
II
110
k np
10
x=
=
= 2, 18.
npq
4, 58
x (x); 0,0371.
- :
0, 0371
= 0, 008.
P100 (60)
4, 58
15. -
15.1 ( -). n p,
0 < p < 1. n
Pn (k1 6 k 6 k2 ) (x2 ) (x1 ),
1
(x) =
2
Zx
1 2
e 2 t dt,
k1 np
x1 =
,
npq
k2 np
x2 =
.
npq
Toc
JJ
II
15: -
111
. .
Toc
JJ
II
112
16.
, -
npq. , , p q,
( , , ), n.
p q
- . .
16.1 ( ). , 1, 2, . . . , n, . . . ,
pn = n
,
, n. k
Pn (k)
k
e
n .
k!
.
n!
Pn (k) =
pk (1 p)nk .
k!(n k)!
p =
n,
k
nk
n!
1
=
k!(n k)! n
n
n
k
n(n 1) . . . (n k + 1)
=
1
=
k
k!
n
nk 1
Pn (k) =
. .
Toc
JJ
II
16:
k
k!
1
n
1 1
113
1
... 1
k
1 n
k1
n
,
n
lim 1
= e ,
n
n
lim
1 1
1
n
... 1
k
1 n
k1
n
= 1.
.
16.1 ( ). n
p
k
Pn (k)
e .
k!
np2 . , k
k
Pn (k) e < np2 .
k!
, k1 , k2 , . . . , ks ,
...,
k1
k2
Pn (k) + + . . . e < np2 .
k1 !
k2 !
16.1. C 400 . ,
, 0,5%. , : 3 ? 5 7 ?
. .
Toc
JJ
II
114
. n = 400, p = 0, 005, = np = 2.
23 2
e 0, 1804;
3!
5
2
26 27
P400 (5 6 k 6 7) e2
+
+
0, 05.
5!
6!
7!
P400 (3)
17.
. jk , , j + k , . X : R, :
X(jk ) = j + k.
.
17.1. (, p) .
c X : R.
, .
X,
.
X(11 ) = 2;
X(12 ) = X(21 ) = 3;
X(13 ) = X(22 ) = X(31 ) = 4;
X(14 ) = X(23 ) = X(32 ) = X(41 ) = 5;
. .
JJ
II
J
Toc
17:
115
P(X = 2) = 1/36;
hX = 3i = {12 , 21 } ;
hX = 4i = {13 , 22 , 31 } ;
hX = 5i = {14 , 23 , 32 , 41 } ;
hX = 6i = {15 , 24 , 33 , 42 , 51 } ;
P(X = 6) = 5/36;
hX = 7i = {16 , 25 , 34 , 43 , 52 , 61 } ;
hX = 8i = {26 , 35 , 44 , 53 , 62 } ;
P(X = 8) = 5/36;
hX = 9i = {36 , 45 , 54 , 63 } ;
hX = 10i = {46 , 55 , 64 } ;
hX = 11i = {56 , 65 } ;
hX = 12i = {66 } ;
. .
Toc
JJ
II
17:
116
, , ,
.
X x1 x2 . . . xn
,
P p1 p2 . . . pn
x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ( ) , X, p1 , p2 , . . . , pn , X
.
X. ( .)
:
X
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
5
4
3
2
1
P 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
36
36
.
. .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
17:
117
, xi , X = xi
, x1 , . . . , xn ,
- . , X =
xi , ,
1:
p1 + p2 + . . . + pn = 1.
17.1. 5 , 0,9.
, .
. X , , . .
Toc
JJ
II
17:
118
. 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 . , ,
n = 5, p = 0, 9, q = 1 p = 0, 1: P5 (k) = Ck5 (0, 9)k (0, 1)5k . , :
0
1
2
3
4
5
X
.
pi P5 (0) P5 (1) P5 (2) P5 (3) P5 (4) P5 (5)
17.1. P5 (0), P5 (1), . . . , P5 (5)
. .
17.1. . ,
, .
.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
119
17.2. A . A IA , :
1, A;
IA () =
0,
/ A.
, :
1 0. IA () = 1 , A, IA () = 0
,
/ A. , [IA = 1] = A, [IA = 0] = A. ,
:
IA
0
1
P 1 P(A) P(A)
, I , , I ,
.
17.2. A, B . ,
IAB = IA IB ;
IA+B = IA + IB IA IB ;
IA\B = IA IA IB ;
IA = 1 IA .
18.
,
.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
18:
120
18.1. X, Y (, P), R. :
(X + Y)() = X() + Y();
( X)() = X();
(X Y)() = X() Y(),
.
, .
.
18.1. p, B1
1- , B2 .
B1 , B2 , 2B1 , B1 + B1 , B1 + B2 .
. B1 B2 :
B1 0 1
B2 0 1
,
.
q p
q p
2B1 0, 2 . :
2B1 = 0 B1 = 0,
2B1 = 2 B1 = 1,
P(2B1 = 0) = P(B1 = 0) = q,
P(2B1 = 2) = P(B1 = 1) = p.
, 2B1
. .
Toc
JJ
II
18:
121
0 2
.
q p
X = B1 + B1 0 + 0, 0 + 1, 1 + 0 1 + 1,
0, 1 2. , . ,
X = 0 B1 + B1 = 0 B1 = 0, B1 + B1 = 2 B1 = 1.
2B1
, hX =
1i , X = B1 + B1
1.
, X
B1 + B1 0 2
,
q p
, , , B1 + B1 = 2B1 .
, Y = B1 + B2 . 0 + 0, 0 + 1, 1 + 0 1 + 1, 0, 1 2. ,
. ,
B1 + B2 = 0 B1 = 0 B2 = 0,
B1 + B2 = 2 B1 = 1 B2 = 1.
,
P(Y = 0) = P(hB1 = 0i hB2 = 0i) = P(B1 = 0) P(B2 = 0) = q q = q2
. .
Toc
P(Y = 2) = p2 .
JJ
II
J
18:
122
. .
Toc
JJ
II
123
19.
19.1. N
k1 x1 ,
k2 x2 ,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,
kn xn ,
xj k1 + k2 + . . . + kn = N. M
. :
x1 k1 + x2 k2 + . . . + xn kn
M=
k1 + k2 + . . . + kn
x1 k1 + x2 k2 + . . . + xn kn
=
N
k1
k2
kn
+ x2
+ . . . + xn .
= x1
N
N
N
. X() . = {1 , 2 , . . . , N } X ,
:
X() = { }.
, X
xj , , xj ,
kj , xj ,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
19:
124
N :
kj
.
N
, ,
k2
kn
k1
+ x2
+ . . . + xn
M = x1
N
N
N
= x1 P(X = x1 ) + x2 P(X = x2 ) + . . . + xn P(X = xn )
P(X = xj ) =
n
X
x j pj .
j=1
, , , .
19.1. X
n
X
M(X) =
xj pj ,
i=1
x1 , . . . , xn X, p1 , . . . , pn ,
X .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
19:
125
19.2. , :
.
0,5 5000 ..,
0,2 10000 .. 0,3 3000 ..
: 5500 0,6, 5000 0,3
6500 0,1.
?
. . X Y. .
X 3000 5000 10000
Y 5000 5500 6500
p
0,3
0,5
0,2
p
0,3
0,6
0,1
:
M(X) = 3000 0, 3 + 5000 0, 5 + 10000 0, 2 = 5400 .,
M(Y) = 5000 0, 3 + 5500 0, 6 + 6500 0, 1 = 5450 .,
, M(X) < M(Y). ,
.
19.2 ( ). X
Y ,
, . . x X y Y
hX = xi hY = yi .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
19:
126
19.1 ( ).
1 M(0) = 0, M(1) = 1 , , M( 1) = R.
2 A, M(IA ) = P(A).
3 M(X + Y) = M(X) + M(Y).
4 M( X) = M(X).
5 M(1 X1 + . . . + s Xs ) = 1 M(X1 ) + . . . + s M(Xs ).
6 M(X M(X)) = 0.
7 X > 0, M(X) > 0.
8 X 6 Y, M(X) 6 M(Y).
9 X > 0, M(X) = 0, P(X = 0) = 1.
10 X Y , :
M(X Y) = M(X) M(Y).
19.3.
p. Bj ,
j, 1, j , 0,
. M(Bj ).
. M(Bj ) = 1 p + 0 (1 p) = p.
19.4. n n p. M(n ).
. .
Toc
JJ
II
127
. ,
n = B1 + B2 + . . . + Bn =
n
X
Bj .
j=1
5 , :
M(n ) = M(B1 ) + M(B2 ) + . . . + M(Bn ) =
= p + p + ... + p =
|
{z
}
n
= np.
,
M(n ) = np.
20.
, ,
.
, , X Y :
X 101 99
Y
0
200
p 0,5 0,5
p 0,5 0,5
, , 0,5 101 ..
0,5 99 .., , 0,5
200 .., 0,5 .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
20:
128
:
M(X) = M(Y) = 100.
X M(X) , Y
. : , 100 . ., .
, , , ,
.
. .
20.1. X D(X)
:
D(X) = M((X M(X))2 ).
, . X M(X)
. X M(X)
X M(X).
:
(X M(X))2 .
X.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
20:
129
20.1 ( ).
1 D(X) > 0.
2 D(X) = M(X2 ) (M(X))2 .
3 R
D(X) = 2 D(X),
D(X + ) = D(X).
4 X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ,
D(X1 + X2 + . . . + Xn ) = D(X1 ) + D(X2 ) + . . . + D(Xn ).
20.1. p. Bj j, j N,
n n (
n = B1 + B2 + . . . + Bn ).
D(Bj ) D(n ).
. j,
D(Bj ) = M(B2j ) (M(Bj ))2 = M(Bj ) (M(Bj ))2 = p p2 = P(1 p) = pq,
,
D(n ) = D(B1 + . . . + Bn ) = D(B1 ) + . . . + D(Bn ) = n pq.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
130
21.
1. X, n
x1 , . . . , xn ,
1
pk = Pn (X = xk ) = .
n
-.
2. n n
pk = P(n = k) = Pn (k) = Ckn pk qnk ,
k = 0, . . . , n.
. ( , ,
).
3. , X
, .
pk = P(X = k) = pqm1 ,
k = 0, 1, 2, . . . .
. ( , ).
4.
pk = P(X = k) = e
. .
Toc
JJ
k
,
k!
II
k = 0, 1, 2, . . . .
J
131
22.
, , . . .
,
( , ). ,
, : x
P(X = x) = 0.
.
,
, .
P( < X < ), , R = = +. ,
, P(X < ) R
P( < X < ) .
, , R < :
P(X < ) = P(X < ) + P(X = ) + P( < X < ) = P(X < ) + P( < X < ),
. .
Toc
JJ
II
22:
132
22.1. FX : R R, X
FX (x) = P(X < x),
X.
.
. .
,
, ,
, .
22.2. FX X , , .
X pX fX .
: X, :
X. X ( ).
, pX ( fX ) X FX :
pX = fX = FX0 .
C , F X
. .
Toc
JJ
II
22:
133
f
Zx
F(x) =
f(t) dt.
X (, )
Z
P( < X < ) = F() F() =
f(x) dx,
F(x) , f(x) .
[, ] (, ] [, ).
22.1 ( ).
1 .
2 .
3 F() = 0,
F(+) = 1 (. .
lim F(x) = 0,
x+
M(X) D(X) X
Z
Z
M(X) =
xf(x) dx, D(X) =
[x M(X)]2 f(x) dx,
f(x) . , D(X)
. .
Toc
JJ
II
22:
134
D(X) = M(X2 ) M2 (X),
M(X ) =
2
x2 f(x) dx.
22.3. X , , :
M(X) = 0,
2 (X) = 1.
22.1 ( ). X , a
, 2 (.. M(X) = a, D(X) = 2 ). :
1
St(X) =
Xa
2 , R
a
P(X < ) = P St(X) <
,
a
P(X > ) = P St(X) >
,
a
a
P( < X < ) = P
< St(X) <
.
.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
22:
135
.
22.1. !
22.1. X
0,
x 6 1,
1
1
F(x) =
x + , 1 < x 6 2,
3
3
1,
x > 2.
,
) 2, ) 1, ) 1 0, ) 1, )
3.
.
)
)
)
. .
1
1
x+
3
3
0 =
x=1
2
.
3
1
1
1
1
=
x+
x+
3
3 x=1
3
3 x=0
2 1
1
= .
3 3
3
Toc
JJ
II
2
1
= .
3
3
22:
136
22.2. X
0,
x 6 0
1
f(x) =
sin x, 0 < x 6
2
0,
x > .
) F(x),
) , X , (0, /3).
Zx
. ) F(x) =
f(t) dt.
x 6 0
Zx
x
0 dt = C = C C = 0.
F(x) =
0 < x 6
Zx
F(x) =
f(t) dt =
. .
Z0
Zx
0 dt +
1
sin t dt =
2
x 1
0 1
1
1
= 0 + ( cos t) = cos t = (cos 0 cos x) = (1 cos x).
2
2
2
2
0
x
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
22:
137
x >
Zx
F(x) =
Z0
f(t) dt =
= 0+
Z
0 dt +
1
2
Zx
1
sin t dt + 0 dt =
2
1
sin t dt + 0 = ( cos t) =
2
0
0 1
1
1
=
cos t = (cos 0 cos ) = 2 = 1.
2
2
2
0,
1
F(x) =
(1 cos x),
2
1,
) P 0 < X <
=
3
/3
Z
x 6 0,
0 < x 6 ,
x > .
/3
1
1
sin t dt = ( cos t) =
2
2
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
cos t =
cos 0 cos
=
1
= .
=
2
2
3
2
2
4
/3
. .
Toc
JJ
II
22:
138
22.3. X
x 6 0
0,
F(x) =
x2 , 0 < x 6 1
1,
x > 1.
M(X) D(X).
0,
f(x) =
2x,
0,
M(X)
x 6 0
0 < x 6 1
x > 1.
Z0
Z1
0 x dx + x 2x dx +
xf(x) dx =
x 0 dx =
1
Z1
0
x3 1
= c + 2 x2 dx + c1 = 0 + 2 + 0 =
3 0
0
2 3
2
(1 03 ) = ,
3
3
M(X )
x2 2x dx =
x f(x) dx =
. .
4
,
9
Z1
2
M2 (X) =
Toc
JJ
II
22:
Z1
= 2 x3 dx = 2
139
x4 1 x4 1 1
=
= ,
4 0
2 0 2
1 4
1
=
0,06.
2 9
18
22.2. X
0,
x 6 2
1
F(x) =
x 1, 2 < x 6 4
2
1,
x > 4.
D(X) = M(X2 ) M2 (X) =
,
) 1, ) 3, ) 3,5 2,5, ) 3, )
5.
.
) 0, ) 1/2, ) 1/2, ) 1/2, ) 0.
22.3. X
0,
x 6 ,
f(x) =
cos x, < x 6 ,
2
2
2
0,
x > .
2
) F(x),
) , X (0, /6).
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
140
0,
1
F(x) =
(1 + sin x),
1,
x 6
2
< x 6
2
2
x > .
2
22.4. X
x 6 0
0,
1 2
3
F(x) =
(x + x ), 0 < x 6 1
2
1,
x > 1.
M(X) D(X).
.
M(X) = 17/24 0,71, D(X) 0,05.
23.
X a , f(x)
2
f(x) =
(xa)
1
e 22 .
2
,
M(X) = a,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
D(X) = 2 .
J
23:
141
,
X a
a , .
a = 0, = 1 , ,
x2
1
(x) = e 2 ,
2
Zx
t2
1
1
(x) =
e 2 dt = + (x),
2
2
(x) .
U. , U ,
21 + (x).
23.1.
X a 2
(, )
a
a
P( < X < ) =
. .
Toc
JJ
II
23:
142
. , (22.1),
a
Xa
a
a
a
P( < X < ) = P
<
<
<U<
=P
=
a
a
1
a
1
a
=
=
+
+
=
a
a
.
=
23.2. X a
P(|X a| < ) = 2
.
,
P(|X a| < ) = 2(1) 0, 6826,
P(|X a| < 2) = 2(2) 0, 9544,
P(|X a| < 3) = 2(3) 0, 9973.
. ,
Xa
=P
<U<
=
= 2
.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
23:
143
, , , X
3, , . . 1. 3.
23.1. X .
6, 9. , X , (3, 12).
2 = 9, , = 3.
12 6
36
P(3 < X < 12) =
= (2) (1) =
3
3
. a = 6,
. a . ,
. 2 = 4, = 2.
3
Xa
3
3
P(|Xa| < 3) = P(3 < Xa < 3) = P
<
<
= 2
= 2(1,5) 20,4332 =
2
23.3. X , a = 6, = 3.
(, ) a, 0,9973 X
.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
23:
144
.
P( < X < ) = 0,9973.
3
P(|X a| < 3) = 0,9973
= a 3 = 6 3 3 = 3,
= a + 3 = 6 + 3 3 = 15.
, (3, 15).
23.4. , a = 1
= 10 .
1) : ) 990 ; ) 990 1010 ; )
1010 ?
2) a
: ) 0,9974; ) 0,9; ) 0,95; ) 0,99?
. X ,
. M(X) = a = 1000 , (X) = = 10 .
1) , 990 , , 990 ::::
::::::
::
0, P(0 6 X < 990) =
P(0 < X < 990).
. .
Toc
JJ
II
23:
145
1000
990 1000
<U<
=
10
10
1
= P(100 < U < 1) = (1) (100) = (100) (1) (1).
2
1: (1) = 0, 3413.
, P(0 < X < 990) = 0, 5 0, 3413 = 0, 1587. ,
15,87%.
1), 1) , :
P(0 < X < 990) = P
0a
Xa
990 a
<
<
=P
P(990 < X < 1010) = P(1 < U < 1) = (1) (1) = 2(1) = 0, 6826;
P(X > 1010) = P(U > 1) = 1 (1) = 1 (0, 5 + (1)) = 0, 5 (1) = 0, 1587.
, , , 68,26% 15,87%.
2) 0,9973 P(|X a| < 3). P(|X a| <
3) = P(|X a| < 30). , 0,9973 ,
, 970 1030 .
2) 23.2
P(|X a| < ) = 2
.
(x), 2(x) =
0, 9, (x) = 0, 45 ( ).
0,4505. x = 1, 65. ,
= 1, 65,
= 1, 65,
10
. .
Toc
JJ
II
146
= 16, 5. , 0,9 ,
, 983,5 1016,5 .
2, ) .
.
23.1. X . 10, 16. ,
X , (5, 15).
. P(5 < X < 15) 0,7888.
23.2. X .
25. , X
4.
. P(|X a| < 4) 0,5762.
23.3. X , a = 5, = 4.
(, ), 0,9973 X
, a .
. (7, 17).
24.
24.1 ( ).
X (, P). , > 0,
P(X > ) 6
. .
Toc
JJ
II
M(X)
.
24:
147
. , , , X() > ,
X() < . ,
hX > i + hX < i = ,
. ,
IhX>i + IhX<i = I = 1.
X = X 1 = X IhX>i + IhX<i = X IhX>i + X IhX<i > X IhX>i > IhX>i .
:
M(X) > M IhX>i > M IhX>i = P(X > ),
.
24.1 ( ).
X
(, P). , > 0:
1
M(|X| )
P |X| > 6
;
M(X2 )
P |X| > = P X2 > 2 6
;
2
. .
D(|X| )
P |X M(X)| > 6
.
2
Toc
JJ
II
24:
148
24.2 ( ). X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ,
. . . ( , c , ,
i, D[Xi ] 6 c). , > 0,
X1 + . . . + Xn M(X1 ) + . . . + M(Xn )
> 0 n .
P
n
n
. n
1
n = (X1 + . . . + Xn ), n = 1, 2, . . . .
n
1
M(n ) = (M(X1 ) + . . . + M(Xn )).
n
X1 + . . . + Xn M(X1 ) + . . . + M(Xn )
> = P (|n M(n )| > )
P
n
n
D(X1 ) + . . . + D(Xn )
nc
1 c
D(n )
=
6 2 2 = 2 0 n ,
2
2
2
n
n
n
.
6
24.2. , , M(X1 ) =
M(X2 ) = . . . = a. , > 0,
X1 + . . . + Xn
P
a > 0 n .
n
. .
Toc
JJ
II
24:
149
.
24.3 ( ). A n p. , > 0,
n
P
p < 1 n .
n
. M(n ) = np D(n ) =
npq, :
n
P
p > = P (|n np| > n) = P (|n M(n )| > n) =
n
D(n )
npq
1 pq
6 2 2 = 2 2 = 2 0 n .
n
n
n
, nn p < , nn p >
, 1 n , .
, . ,
, , ,
n
n A n ,
, p A .
, :
1 pq
n
P
p > 6 2 ,
n
n
. .
Toc
JJ
II
24:
150
1 pq
n
P
p < > 1 2 .
n
n
,
.
24.1. . 50 ,
0,2 . ,
49,5 50,5 .
. X . M(X) =
50, D(X) = 2 = (0, 2)2 = 0, 04. h49, 5 6 X 6
50, 5i. :
49, 5 6 X 6 50, 5 0, 5 6 X 50 6 0, 5 |X 50| 6 0, 5.
3 . ( D(X) = 0, 04, = 0, 5)
P(|X 50| > 0, 5) 6
0, 04
,
0, 25
0, 04
= 0, 84.
0, 25
24.2. 350 . ,
0,2.
P(|X 50| 6 0, 5) > 1
. .
Toc
JJ
II
151
. , ( !). , ,
35
3,5 12
. Xi (i = 1, . . . , 350) , i-
. 1) , 2) 3) .
.
n = 50, D(X) = 35
12 , a = 3, 5, = 0, 2, :
!
350
1 X
35
P
Xi 3, 5 6 0, 2 > 1
0, 792.
350
12 350 0, 04
i=1
24.3. 320 . ,
0,03.
. p = 61 , q = 56 , = 0, 03,
:
1 5
n 1
1
P
< 0, 03 > 1
6 6 2 0, 518.
n
6
320 (0, 03)
25.
,
. .
, .
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
25:
152
,
( ) ,
, . ,
, ,
, . .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
153
2.
26.
.
, .
)
)
.
.
, 1 6 1/6.
\ , , , 1000
"
300 . 1/6, ,
. ,
. , ,
0,3.
: , , .
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
26:
154
.
, , , . . ,
,
.
, , , ,
. . . ,
(, ) . , , , , ,
.
, ,
, X; , X,
, ,
X, .
, , . : ,
, . . , .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
155
.
( ) . , ,
,
. , ,
, ,
. , .
, , , .
; . , , , ;
. ,
; , , . ,
, .
27.
-
, , .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
27:
156
, , :
x1 , x2 , . . . , x n
( ). . , , - . ,
. .
, .
, ;
, .
.
27.1.
. : xi
1 , 2 , . . . , m ,
1 < 2 < . . . < m .
:
1
2
...
m
k1
k2
...
km
n1 = k1 /n n2 = k2 /n . . . nm = km /n
. .
Toc
JJ
II
27:
157
n , ki , i . ki , a ni = ki /n .
(. 3).
. 3:
27.1. ,
, .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
27:
158
27.1. , . 56 .
( )
:
3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 5, 3, 5, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 5, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 5, 3,
4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 3, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4, 2, 3, 5, 4, 3, 5, 3, 5.
.
, , ,
.
:
2, 3, 4, 5.
, .
, .
2, 3, 4, 5 . , , ( )
. ( : , .)
.
:
2:
3:
4:
5:
||| 3 ,
|||||||||||||||||||||||| 24 ,
|||||||||||||| 14 ,
||||||||||||||| 15 .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
27:
159
:
2
3
4
5
3
24
14
15
3/56 24/56 14/56 15/56
( , n = 56.)
, , (. 4).
. 4: ,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
27:
160
27.2.
,
. , ,
1
2
...
m
1
1
...
1
1/n 1/n . . . 1/n
, . .
, , .
, ,
.
:
[1 , 2 ]
(2 , 3 ]
. . . (m , m+1 ]
k1
k2
...
km
n1 = k1 /n n2 = k2 /n . . . nm = km /n
n ,
m ,
ki , i- (i- ),
ni = ki /n i- (i-
).
. .
JJ
II
J
I
Toc
27:
161
, .
, , i, i-
(i ; i+1 ], ni (i = 1, . . . , m) . . 5.
. 5:
m . m 5 15.
, (i ; i+1 ] ,
;
ki .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
27:
162
27.2. , , 25 , . . ( ):
75, 145, 150, 180, 125, 150, 150, 165, 95, 135, 130, 70, 130, 105, 135, 135, 100, 160, 60, 85,
120, 60, 145, 150, 135.
.
60
180. , [60; 180].
, , m = 6 .
, ( , 1):
[60; 80] :
(80; 100] :
(100; 120) :
(120; 140] :
(140; 160] :
(160; 180] :
|||| 4 ,
||| 3 ,
|| 2 ,
||||||| 7 ,
||||||| 7 ,
|| 2 .
:
[60; 80]
(80; 100] (100; 120] (120; 140]
4
3
2
7
4
3
2
7
=
0,
16
=
0,
12
=
0,
08
=
0, 28
25
25
25
25
, , (. 6).
. .
Toc
JJ
II
(140; 160]
7
7
=
0, 28
25
(160; 180]
2
2
=
0, 08
25
163
. 6: 27.2
28.
X. , ,
, . ( -
), , . , ,
, , a . , ,
. . .
Toc
JJ
II
28:
164
.
28.1. ,
, , X . (
). : x1 , x2 , . . . , xn X, n
, .
e
, , , x1 , x2 , . . . , xn :
e = (x
e 1 , x2 , . . . , xn ).
e (
n X).
X ( x1 , x2 , . . . , xn )
n.
e .
e , 1. , ,
, , . .
e = .
M()
, , . .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
28:
165
2. , n
e , . .
e 0 n .
D()
, , .
,
e 1 , x2 , . . . , xn )
, (x
. , , .
28.2.
a = M(X).
, . . X X:
n
1X
X=
xi .
n
i=1
X,
1X
Xi .
n
n
X=
i=1
Xi X, i-
( xi ).
. .
Toc
JJ
II
28:
166
X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn (
X),
1X
1
M(Xi ) = nM(X) = a.
n
n
n
M(X) =
(8)
i=1
, X .
n
1 X
1
D
(9)
D(Xi ) = 2 nD = .
D(X) = 2
n
n
n
i=1
D X.
X.
28.3.
D (X a)2 , D
1X
(Xi X)2
n
n
D=
i=1
X; .
, D . ,
, , D D. ,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
28:
167
, , D D, :
n1
M(D) =
D.
n
,
n
1 X
D=
(Xi X)2 .
n1
n1
n
D=
i=1
,
M(D) =
n
M(D) = D.
n1
D , .
n
D D n1
, 1 n ,
n , .
D
D = X2 (X)2
(10)
D(X) = M(X2 ) M2 (X).
( (10)
X2 X.)
. .
Toc
JJ
II
28:
168
28.1. :
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1
3
7 15 21 30 12 8
3
( )
X .
.
n = 1 + 3 + 7 + 15 + 21 + 30 + 12 + 8 + 3 = 100.
:
X=
X2 =
1
(12 1 + 13 3 + 14 7 + 15 15 + 16 21 + 17 30+
100
1648
+18 12 + 19 8 + 20 3) =
= 16, 48,
100
1
(122 1 + 132 3 + 142 7 + 152 15 + 162 21 + 172 30+
100
20208
+182 12 + 192 8 + 202 3) =
= 272, 08,
100
D = 272, 08 (16, 48)2 = 0, 4896,
100
D=
0, 4896 = 0, 4945 . . . .
99
. .
Toc
JJ
II
169
29.
29.1.
e . ,
.
, . ,
e
e
. ,
e1 ,
e2 )
(
, , . .
(11)
.
e1
e2 ,
,
( ) ; (11)
, .
, 0,95 0,99, (11)
; ,
e1 ,
e2 ),
(x1 , . . . , xn ) X (
,
.
, e1 ,
e2 ) ( (
. .
Toc
JJ
II
29:
170
).
29.2.
.
, X a
( ) ( ). a
,
.
, . , , a.
, ,
, ,
. .
.
, , . ,
X = a +
. ,
M(X) = a.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
29:
171
(, , ) .
.
n ,
, . . (a1 , a2 ),
(, , ) a.
a :
1) ;
2) .
.
29.3. a
Pn
. ,
i=1 Xi , 1
a n
,
( !). , X
a n (. (8) (9) ).
U=
Xa
,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
29:
172
0 1. , t ,
Xa
< t
t < X a < t
n
n
X t < a < X + t
n
n
X t < a < X + t .
n
n
, (13)
X t < a < X + t
n
n
(14)
. , (14) . , ,
. .
Toc
JJ
II
29:
173
(14) , a
I = X t , X + t
.
n
n
, I
a, .
29.1. n (x1 , . . . , xn ) X a
I , a, :
1)
x1 + . . . + xn
X=
n
;
2) t ,
(t ) =
2;
2)
X t , X + t
.
n
n
, .
, 2t n (
), , , ;
X.
. .
Toc
JJ
II
29:
174
,
X, (x1 , . . . , xn ). .
, 1000 , 1000. 1000.
,
, ,
.
29.1. , , = 5 . n = 30 .
X = 101 .
= 0, 95.
. = 0, 95, ,
2 = 0, 475.
0,475 .
0,475. 1,96.
, t = 1, 96. ,
5
5
101 1, 96 , 101 + 1, 96
,
30
30
(99,21, 102,79).
29.1. , , = 3 . 40 .
. .
Toc
JJ
II
29:
175
X = 49 .
= 0, 99.
. .
Toc
JJ
II