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20052016
: 3 2016 .

a.naziev@rsu.edu.ru


1.
2.
3.
4.





4.1.
4.2.
5.
6.
7.
8. . .
8.1.
8.2.
8.3.
8.4.
9. .
10.
10.1.
10.2.
10.3.
10.4.
10.5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.

10.6.
10.7.
10.8.
10.9.
10.10.


.

-
-










27.1.
27.2.

. .

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JJ

II

4
28.
28.1.,
28.2.
28.3.
29.
29.1.
29.2.
29.3. a

. .

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II

5
1.
1.
,
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n n () n .
n
n ()
.
n
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n () =

1:

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N , M . ,
10 000 .
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M . 10 000
000
M 10N
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N ,

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.
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1:

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: M .
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. , ,
. A, P(A), :
, A
P(A) =
.

. .

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1:

1.2. ,
. ( )
(), ,
1 , 2 ,
3 ,
4 , 5 , 6 .
A, . 3- , , , 2
, 4 , 6 . , , 12 :
P(A) =

3
1
= .
6
2

.
-, .
, .
, 1, 2, . . . , 6 ; . ,
.
, \ .
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, . .
- , . , n,
, , .
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1:

1
n
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6 , . ,
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1.3. . N1 ,
M1 , N2 , M2 .
. ,
?

, N1 N2 , .
N1 N2 .
, M1 M2
, . ,
M1 M2 .
M 1 M2
M1 M 2
=

.
N1 N2
N1 N2

2
, M
N2
. .

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M1
N1

1:

10

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.
1.4. ,
0, 004. , 500 .
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,
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500 , 500 ,
1-, 2-, . . . , 500- .
. , , ,
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1:

11

, (0, 996)500 . ,
0, 14. , , ,
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12

, , , 1
N
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1.1. 10 , 15 , 20 25 .
. . ,
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? 8) ? 9) ? 10) ? 11)
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1.2. a , b , c . .
. , : 1) , 2) , 3) , 4) , 5) , 6) , 6)
.
2.
.
,
. .

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2:

13

, , . . . ,

. . . .
,

, , 5

5 .
. . ., P(h. . .i),
P(. . .). ,
P(hX = 3i)
:
P(X = 3).
2.1. .
B ( ,
).
) . .
) : B = 0; B = 1; B > 0; B > 0; B > 1;
B > 1; B = 2; B < 2; B 6 2; B < 0.
2.1. .
(, ), ,
, , . ,
. .

JJ
II
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Toc

2:

14

, ,
,
. ,
, ()
: ( ,
), (
, ),
.
. ) : = , = . .
: 2.
)
B, ,
,
B. :

B 1 0
, B, : P(B = 0) = 12 ; P(B =
1) = 21 ; P(B > 0) = 12 ; P(B > 0) = 1; P(B > 1) = 12 ; P(B > 1) = 0; P(B = 2) = 0;
P(B < 2) = 1; P(B 6 2) = 1; P(B < 0) = 0.
, B < 2 , , B < 2. : 2. 2.
, P(B < 2) = 22 = 1.
2.1. .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

2:

15

2.2.
. B1 , B2 ,
, , .
2 = B1 + B2 , C = B1 B2 , D = B1 B2 , E = 22 , F = C2 .
) . .
) X = B1 , X = B2 , X = 2 , X = C, X = D, X = E, X = F,
: X = 0; X = 1; X > 0; X > 0; X > 1; X > 1;
X > 2; X > 3, 5; X < 3, 5; X 6 3, 5; X < 0.
. ) .
2
. 2 2 , 22 .
, 22 = 4. . ,
, - .
,
. ,
.
, .
, :

. .

Toc

JJ

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2:

16

, : , , , . :

.
, , :

. .

Toc

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2:

17

)
X. , X = 2

;
2
2
1
1
0
2 > 1, , ,
2 > 1. 3. 4. ,
34 .
, . ,
, .
. , 34 .
? , - ,
. -
,
. .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

2:

18

2.2. . X ( ,
).
) .
.
) : X = 0; X = 1; X > 0; X > 0; X > 1;
X > 1; X > 2; X > 3, 5; X < 3, 5; X 6 3, 5; X < 0.
. ) 22 .
2
. 22 2 , 23 .
) , 23 = 8. .
, , - .
. .

. :

. .

Toc

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II

2:

19

, .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

2:

20

2.3.
. X
( ,
).
) . .
) : X = 0; X = 1; X > 0; X > 0; X > 1;
X > 1; X > 2; X > 3, 5; X < 3, 5; X 6 3, 5; X < 0.
2.4.
. X1 , X2 , , , , .
X = X1 + X2 , Y = X1 X2 , Z = X1 X2 , U = X2 , V = Y 2 .
) , .
) - ,
(, X1 > 4, X2 , U V 3
).
2.5. 21 , .
.
, .
. - , .
21 . 20 .
6 , . ,
6
, 20
, . . 0,3.
. .

Toc

JJ

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21

2.6. 21 , .
.
, .
3.
.
3.1. . ,
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, ,
.
.
1 , . ( ,
.)
1 . 1. 1 1 ,
1, , ., .
n1 N1 1,
. : , , 1 . ,
, 1 ?. ,
n1
. : p1 = N
.
1
2
1 , ,

. .

Toc

JJ

II

3:

22

1 1 :

1
.
1
, 1
). 2.
1 ( , 10
2 2 , 2,
, ., . n2 N2 2,
. : , 2, 2 .
, , 2 ?.
, : n2
. 1012 2 , ,
p2 = N
2
2 2 :
2
.
p2 =
2
, , , ,
. . , , 3.1,
.
, ,
,
. .
p1 =

. .

Toc

JJ

II

3:

23

3.1. (, , , ,
, ), ( , ).
p , ,
:

.
p=

( \ : ,
"
, .)
3.1. .
,
, .
3.1. , .
3.2.
12:00 13:00. , . , ?
. . . .
. x, y
12. Oxy ( ,
(0, 0), (0, 1), (1, 1), (1, 0)).
, x y ,
, , |y x| 6 14 . , , ,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

3:

24

1
1
6y6x+ .
4
4
, , .
x

1
4

1
4

p S
, S, .
S : 1 34 . ,
p=12
. .

Toc

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1 3 3
9
7
=1
=
.
2 4 4
16
16
II

3:

25

3.3. , 4 , 2 . ,
, ?
. , ,
- . . ,
, .
,
,
, , , 1 . : 4
( ); ,
2 ?
:
22
1
p= 2 = .
4
4
. , 64.
?
3.2. , 4 ,
2 . ,
, ?
3.3. . ,
,
?
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

26

3.4. 2 (1, 1)
. , ? ?
3.5. 1 (p, q). , x2 + 2px + q = 0
?
3.6. .
, ?
3.7. 5
.
4.
.
. ,
, , ,
.
4.1.
() ().
, ,
.

, . .
. .

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4:

27

( ), .
, .
-
, ,
,
.
,
.
4.1. ,
, .
, .
, , , ,
:

.
? ! , ( ) ,
( ) .
. . : 4 , , 3 , ,
, 6, . . ,
. .

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4:

28

.
, ,
: 2 , ,
3 , 5 , . . ,
( ).
, . :
,
, .
X .
: X = 0, X = 7. ?
( X = 0
, X = 7). ,
, ( ).
, :
hX = 0i = hX = 7i. , -
.
4.2. , (, ,
), .
A, ,
A, A, A.
, ,
A, A = { : A} .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

4:

29

, . . , ()
, , , : . , , ,
(,
).
, .
. . ,
, , . , ( ).
, , , .
.
, A B (: A B), ,
A, B. : , A, B. , A B,
A B ()( A B).
A B , (: A =
B), : A B B A. :
A B,
A = B ()( A B).
A A (: -A),
A, , A; , , A. :
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

4:

A,

30

A
/ A.

A B A + B,
; , ,
: A B. : A
B,
A + B A B.
A B AB,
; , ,
: A B. : A B,
A B A B.
AB, , A B,
A B A B. ,
A B, A B = A B.
A B , AB (
, : A B). :
A B,
A B A B = .
A B ,
: A B B A.
A B ,
A B.
.
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

4:

31

4.2.
A P(A), A, , .
(P0) () A, P(A) > 0;
(P1) () P() = 1 ( );
(P2) () A B , P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B).
(P) ( ) A1 , A2 , . . . , An , . . . (. . Ai Aj = i 6= j), P(A1 + A2 + . . . + An + . . .) = P(A1 ) +
P(A2 ) + . . . + P(An ) + . . ..
, ,
.
(P0) (P2), (P). .

.
XVII .
. .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

32


a A






( )
()
a A ( )
()




4.1. . 0,7, 0,8. ,


: ) , ? ) , ? )
? ) ? ) ? ) ?
5.
5.1. .
, . : ,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

5:

33

. , ,
, . , .
: = , = .
: = {, }.
: .
: P() = P() = 12 .
: A
X
P(A) =
P().
A

, , A,
1
m
= ,
n
n
n = 2 ( "
\ ), m A ( ,
"
A\ ).
P(A) = m

5.2. .
6 , (
):
. .

Toc

JJ

II

123456

5:

34

( ),
. .
: i = i , i = 1, . . . , 6.
: = {1 , 2 , . . . , 6 }.
: .
:
P(1 ) = P(2 ) = . . . = P(6 ) =

1
.
6

: A
X
1
m
P(A) =
P() = m = ,
6
n
A

n = 6 ( () ), m A (
, A).
5.3. .
, .
.

. .

Toc

JJ

II

11 12 13 14 15 16
21 22 23 24 25 26
31 32 33 34 35 36
41 42 43 44 45 46
51 52 53 54 55 56
61 62 63 64 65 66

5:

35

,
. (i, j), i ,
, j , . (i, j) i, j = 1, . . . , 6,
.
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
. .

1)
1)
1)
1)
1)
1)
Toc

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

2)
2)
2)
2)
2)
2)
JJ

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

3)
3)
3)
3)
3)
3)
II

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

4)
4)
4)
4)
4)
4)
J

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

5)
5)
5)
5)
5)
5)
I

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

6)
6)
6)
6)
6)
6)

5:

36

, . .
: ij = i , j , i, j =
1, . . . , 6. 36 .
: = {ij : i, j = 1, . . . , 6}.
: .
: P(ij ) =

1
36 .

: A
X
1
m
P(A) =
P() = m = ,
n
n
A

n = 36 ( ()
), m A ( , A).
5.4. .
.
, , .
, ,
, (i, j) (j, i) .
(i, j) (j, i) i, j, . ,
, ,
(i, j) i 6 j,
.
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

5:

(1, 1)

(1, 2)
(2, 2)

37

(1, 3)
(2, 3)
(3, 3)

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,

4)
4)
4)
4)

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,

5)
5)
5)
5)
5)

(1, 6)
(2, 6)
(3, 6)
(4, 6)
(5, 6)
(6, 6)
,
.
: ij = i , j , i 6 j, i, j =
1, . . . , 6. 21 .
: = {ij : i 6 j, i, j = 1, . . . , 6}.
: .
: P() =

1
21

: A
X
1
m
P(A) =
P() = m =
n
n
A

n = 21 ( ()
), m A ( , A).
. 6 , 7 8 17 ,
3 :
. .

Toc

JJ

II

5:

38

6 = 3+3 = 2+4 = 1+5,


7 = 3+4 = 2+5 = 1+6,
8 = 4+4 = 3+5 = 2+6.
, , , : 6 8 ,
7 .
(-)
. , , .
, , : , .
,
36 , .
, ,
i i {1, . . . , 6}
, i , j i 6= j
.
, , , , ,
:

, i = j;
36
P(ij ) =

1 , i 6= j.
18
. .

Toc

JJ

II

5:

39

, 6 , ,
1
8 , , 18
, ,
1
36 (15 , 24 , 33 , 26 , 35 , 44 )
1
1
5
, 2 18
+ 36
, 36
. ,
7 , 16 , 25 , 34 ,
1
1
18
, 3 18
, 16 .
5.5. .
, , a, b c.
, , .
.
abc

c
ab

b
ac

abc

ab
c
a

bc

abc
b
ac

a
bc
ab
c

ac
b
a
b
c
ab

c
a
bc

a
c
b
ac
b

bc
a
b
a
c
ac

b
c
ab
b
c
a
bc
a

c
ab
c
a
b
bc

a
b
ac
c
b
a
: . 27 .
, .
: = {i : i = 1, . . . , 27}.
: .
. .
JJ
II
Toc

5:

: P(i ) =

40
1
27 .

: A
X
m
P(A) =
P() = ,
n
A

n = 27 ( ()
), m A ( , A).
5.6. .
, ,
. , ,
. .
1

10

, ,
.
: 1 , . . . , 10 .
10 .
: = {i : i = 1, . . . , 10}.
: .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

5:

: P(i ) =

41
1
10 .

: A
X
m
P(A) =
P() = ,
n
A

n = 10 ( ), m A ( ,
A).
, ( , ).
, 27 ,
10 . ,
10 , , (
) 27 .

27 ( S), (S1 ) 10 .
1 , 2 , 3
S, S1 1
27
.
4 , . . . , 9 S,
1
= 91 .
S1 3 27
, , ,
, S, S1
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

42
1
6 27
= 92 .
.

: 1 , . . . , 10 . 10 .
.
: = {i : i = 1, . . . , 10}.
: .
:
i
pi

10

1
27

1
27

1
27

1
9

1
9

1
9

1
9

1
9

1
9

2
9

: A
X
P(A) =
P().
A

,
, ,
.
5.1. .
6.
.
. . , , .
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

6:

43

6.1.
A, B, C:
0 A ;
1 AB A A A + B;
2 A B B C, A C;
3 A B B A, A = B.
6.2 ( ).
A, B, C:
1 A + = ;
2 A + = A;
3 A + A = A;
4 A + B = B + A;
5 A + (B + C) = (A + B) + C.
6.3 ( ).
A, B, C:
1 A = A;
2 A = ;
3 A A = A;
4 A B = B A;
5 A (B C) = (A B) C.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

6:

44

6.4 ( ).
A, B, C:
1 A (B + C) = (A B) + (A C);
2 A + (B C) = (A + B) (A + C).
6.5 ( ).
A B,
A B, AB = A A + B = B.
,
A (A + B) = A

AB + A = A.

6.6 ( ).
A, B, C:
1 = ;
2 = ;
3 A A = ;
4 A + A = ;
5 A = A;
6 A B = A + B;
7 A + B = A B.
6.1. .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

45

7.
7.1. , P , A,
B, A1 , A2 , . . . . :
0 P() = 0;
1 P() = 1;
2 A B, P(A) 6 P(B);
3 0 6 P(A) 6 1;
4 A B = , P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B); ,
Ai Aj = i 6= j, P(A1 + . . . + Ar ) = P(A1 ) + . . . + P(Ar );
5 P(A) = 1 P(A).
. .
2 A B. n, a A, b
B. A B, ,
A, , B. , a 6 b,
a
b
P(A) = 6 = P(B).
n
n
3 A : A . P() 6 P(A) 6 P().
P() = 0, P() = 1. , 0 6 P(A) 6 1.
4 A B = . n, a
A, b B. A B = , , . .

Toc

JJ

II

7:

46

A, , B.
, A + B a + b .
a+b
a
b
P(A + B) =
= + = P(A) + P(B).
n
n n
5 , A + A = A A = .
P(A) + P(A) = P() = 1,
.

7.1.
7.2.
7.3.
7.4.
7.5.

,
,
,
,
,

P(A) = 0, , B, P(AB) = 0.
P(A + B) = 0, P(A) = P(B) = 0.
P(A) = 1 P(B) = 1, P(A + B) = 1.
P(AB) = 1, P(A) = P(B) = 1.
P(A) = 1, , B, P(AB) = P(B).

1. , P(AB) = P(A)P(B)!
4
.
7.1. , .
8 , 0,48. , . 7 ,
0,54. , . 8 .
.
A = h. 8 i,
. .

B = h. 8 i,

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

7:

47

C = h. 7 i.
, 7 8 .
C = A + B, A B (AB = ).
4
P(C) = P(A) + P(B),

P(A) = P(C) P(B) = 0, 54 0, 48 = 0, 06.


7.6. ,
, 0,97. , ,
0,89. , ,
.
. 4
.
.
,
. , .
, A = B P(A) 6= 0. A + B = A + A = A,
P(A + B) = P(A + A) = P(A), a P(A) + P(B) = P(A) + P(A) = 2P(A) 6= P(A) , ,
P(A + B) 6= P(A) + P(B).
, A B P(A) 6= 0. P(A+B) = P(B) 6= P(A)+P(B).
, P(AB) 6= 0. A + AB = A, P(A + AB) =
P(A) 6= P(A) + P(AB).
. .

Toc

JJ

II

7:

48

: P(AB) 6= 0, P(A + B) 6= P(A) + P(B)

P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).


,
A = (A B) + AB,

B = (B A) + AB,

A + B = (A B) + AB + (B A).

, AB AB , , P(A) = P(AB)+P(AB), P(AB) =


P(A) P(AB). , P(B A) = P(B) P(AB).
P(A + B) = P(A B) + P(AB) + P(B A)
= (P(A) P(AB)) + P(AB) + (P(B) P(AB))
= P(A) + P(B) P(AB).
, A B,
(1)

P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) .


7.2. P(A) >

2
3

P(B) > 23 . , P(AB) > 31 .

. (1)
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(A + B).


. .

P(A) >

2
,
3

Toc

JJ

P(B) >
II

2
,
3

P(A + B) 6 1.
J

7:

,
P(AB) >

49

2 2
1
+ 1= ,
3 3
3

.
(1)
:
P(A + B + C) = P(A + B) + P(C) P((A + B) C)
= P(A) + P(B) P(AB) + P(C) P((AC) + (BC))
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) (P(AC) + P(BC) P((AC) (BC)))
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(AC) + P(ABC).
, .
7.7. .
7.3. P(A) = a, P(B) = b, P(AB) = c. P(AB).
. , B, ,
A, . , B = AB + AB,
. , P(B) = P(AB) + P(AB), P(AB) = P(B)
P(AB) = b c.
7.8. P(A) = a, P(B) = b, P(AB) = c. : P(A); P(B); P(AB);
P(AB); P(AB); P(A + B); P(A + B); P(A + B); P(A + (AB)); P(A(A + B)).
7.9. .
4/5. , 3/5.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

7:

50

7.10. .
4/5. , 2/5.
7.11. . 4/5. , 1/5.
7.12. , 1/2, , 1/6.
. ,
P(A + B + C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(BC) + P(ABC),

P(A + B + C) > P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(AC),
, ,
P(AB) + P(AC) + P(AC) > P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(A + B + C).

P(A) >

1
,
2

P(B) >

1
,
2

P(C) >

1
,
2

P(A + B + C) 6 1,

1 1 1
1
+ + 1= .
2 2 2
2
16 , 21 .
. , 61 , .
P(AB) + P(AC) + P(AC) >

. .

Toc

JJ

II

51

8. . .
8.1.
(1)
.
. , . , .
8.1.
12 21 , , ,
, ,
1
4 , !
,
: AB = P(A) 6= 0 P(B) 6= 0, P(AB) = 0 6= P(A)P(B).
.
8.2. A , 0
1. P(AA) = P(A) 6= (P(A))2 .

B ,
A. PA (B) P(B|A).
, )
) .
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

8: . .

52

8.3. 54 . ,
. 37 54 . . 7- ,
.
) , . ,
?
) , . ,
?
) , . ,
?
) , . ,
?
) , . ,
?

. ) 54 , 27 .
1
27
54 , . . 2 .
) 54 , 18 .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

53

1
18
54 , . . 3 .
) 54 , 9 .
9
54
, . . 61 .
) 18 , 9 ().
, ,
9
18
, . . 12 .
) 27 , 9 () .
, ,
9
, . . 13 .
27
, ), ), )
, )
, ) , )
. : );
); ).
( ).

8.4. n () , a
A, c AB. ,
A. ,
B?
, A, B AB. .
. , , A, a , A. B . .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

54

, AB. c. ,
B c a:
c
P(B|A) = .
a

c
c a
= : = P(AB) : P(A).
a
n n
,
P(AB)
P(B|A) =
.
(2)
P(A)

. , , (2)
,
A , , : P(A) 6= 0.
8.1. A , 0, B . B , A, P(B|A) ,

P(AB)
P(B|A) =
.
(3)
P(A)
, P(A) = 0, P(B|A) .
(3) .
8.5. , 5 , 2/3,
, 50 , 0,5. ,
, 5 , 50 ?
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

8: . .

55

.
A = h 5 i,
B = h 50 i.
P(A) = 23 , P(B) = 12 . P(B|A).
P(AB)
.
P(B|A) =
P(A)
AB = B (, 50 , 5 ).
P(B|A) =

P(B)
=
P(A)

1
2
2
3

3
= 0, 75.
4

P(B)
.
P(A)
8.2. , P(A) 6= 0 A B, P(B|A) = 1.
8.3. , P(A) 6= 0 B A = , P(B|A) = 0.
8.4. . . , )
, ) ?
8.1. , P(A) 6= 0 B A, P(B|A) =

8.2.
, . , .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

56

8.1 ( ). A B,
P(A) 6= 0, P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A).
8.1. P(A) 6= 0 . , P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A)
, P(A) 6= 0. P(A) = 0? P(AB) ,
, P(AB) = 0 (. 7.1). ,
:

0,
P(A) = 0;
P(AB) =
P(A) P(B|A), P(A) 6= 0.
(8.1) ,
. , :
P(ABC) = P(AB)P(C|AB)
= P(A)P(B|A)P(C|AB);
P(ABCD) = P(ABC)P(D|ABC)
= P(A)P(B|A)P(C|AB)P(D|ABC),
,
P(A1 A2 A3 . . . Ak ) = P(A1 )P(A2 |A1 )P(A3 |A1 A2 ) . . . P(Ak |A1 A2 . . . Ak1 ),
(, , P(A1 A2 . . . Ak1 ) 6= 0).
8.5. : 4 , 3 2 . , . , ( A),

. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

8: . .

57

( B), ( C)?

1
3

1
4

4
7

8.6. : 4 , 3 2 .
( ). ,
?

. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

2
9

1
8

3
9

p1 =

3
8

1
3

58

p2 =

2
9

3
8

3
7

1
12

p3 =

2
9

1
8

3
7

1
84

:
p = p1 + p2 + p3 =

. .

Toc

JJ

1
1
1
28 + 7 + 1
3
+
+
=
= .
3 12 84
84
7
II

8: . .

59

8.7. : ,
, , . ,
0,8 , . 3 ,
. , 6
.
. .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

6
0,8

0,8

0,8

60

0,2

0,2

0,2

0,8

0,8

0,2
0,2

0,2

0,8

0,2

0,8

, .
:
, , 0,8; ,
, 0,2.
3 6 .
4:
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

8: . .

61

, , , .
, ,
.
P() = 0, 8 0, 8 0, 2,
P() = 0, 8 0, 2 0, 8,
P() = 0, 2 0, 2 0, 2,
P() = 0, 2 0, 8 0, 8.

0, 8 0, 8 0, 2 + 0, 8 0, 2 0, 8 + 0, 2 0, 2 0, 2 + 0, 2 0, 8 0, 8 = 3 (0, 8)2 0, 2 + (0, 2)3 = 0, 392.
8.6. : , , , . , 0,8 , . 3
, . , 5
.
8.3.
.
B A,
(4)

P(B|A) = P(B)

. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

62

( A B).
, P(A) 6= 0.
(2) B A
P(AB)
= P(B),
P(A)

P(AB) = P(A) P(B).


(5)
P(B) 6= 0. , A
B,
P(A|B) = P(A).
(6)
(2)
P(AB)
= P(A),
P(B)
(5).
, , (5) ,
A B , A B (
) .
.
8.2. , A B:
, P(AB) = P(A) P(B);
, P(AB) 6= P(A) P(B).
. .
JJ
II
Toc

8: . .

63

(4) (6) .
P(A) 6= 0
8.7. ,
, A B
P(B) 6= 0
P(B|A) = P(B)
,
.
P(A|B) = P(A)
8.8. , A B ,
: B A; A B; A B; A B.
2. .
, , . ,
, .
, , . , ( A) ( B) , : P(B) = 1/2, P(B|A) = 0.
.
8.9. , ,
, . , : , , . ,

. , ,
, .
, . .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

64

8.8. Q . 1/2, . , Q1 , ,
. , Q2 , ,
, . , , ?

. 1: ?
. , ,
, , .
, . ,
, . .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

65

( !).
, , ,
,
.
,
(, , , ).
, .
.
8.9. A B , P(A) = P(B) P(A + B) = 0, 64.
P(A).
. (1)
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).
A B , P(AB) = P(A)P(B) = (P(A))2 . ,
2P(A) (P(A))2 = 0, 64,

(P(A))2 2P(A) = 0, 64.


1, ,
(P(A) 1)2 = 0, 36.
P(A) 1 (?) ,
0,36. , P(A) 1 = 0, 6 , , P(A) = 0, 4.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

66

:
8.10. A B , P(A) = P(B) P(A + B) = 0, 64.
P(A).
. . A B , P(A+B) =
P(A) + P(B). A B , P(A) + P(B) = 2P(A).
, 2P(A) = 0, 64, P(A) = 0, 32.
, ()
.
8.11. .

A = h 4i,
B = h 6i,
C = h i.
, A C, B C. ( -
?)
. , , A, , B ,
:

. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

00010203040506
111213141516
2223242526
33343536
444546
5556
66

67

28. 4 , 7
. , P(C|A) = 31 . 7, , P(C) = 28
= 14 .
P(C|A) 6= P(C), A C .
6 , .
P(C|B) = 41 . P(C) = 14 . , P(C|B) = P(C). , B
C .
8.10. A B , P(A) = P(B) P(A + B) = 1.
P(A).
8.11. (36 )
. A , , B
, . ,
A B. ( ?)
8.12. . ,
.
8.13. P(A) = P(B) = 21 , P(A + B) = 13 .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

68

A B? P(A + B) = 34 ?

.
.
8.14. . 0,7, 0,8. ,
:
) ?
) ?
) . , . ?
) . , . ?
) ?
) ?
) ? ) . , , . ?
) . , , ?
) . , , ?
) . , , ?
: , ,
, , .
8.15. . 0,7, 0,8. . ?

. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

69

8.4.
.
, .
.
A1 , A2 , A3 - . ? , A1 ,
A2 , A3 ,
P(A1 A2 A3 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 ).
( ).1
1 .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

70

8.12. . X
.
A1 = hX = 2i;
A2 = hX i;
A3 = hX = 0i.
, A1 A2 . ( , : P(A1 ) = 16 ,
P(A2 ) = 21 , A1 A2 , A1 A2 = A1 , P(A1 A2 ) = P(A1 ) = 16 , P(A1 )P(A2 ) =
1 1
1
6 2 = 12 6= P(A1 A2 ).) P(A3 ) = 0,
1 1
0 = P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 ).
6 2
, , . ,
.
P(A1 A2 A3 ) = 0 =

, : A1 , A2 , A3 , .
, .
8.3. A1 , A2 ,. . . , An ,
.
, . .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

71

8.4. , A1 , A2 , A3 ,
, , ,
P(A1 A2 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 ),
P(A1 A3 ) = P(A1 )P(A3 ),
P(A2 A3 ) = P(A2 )P(A3 ),
P(A1 A2 A3 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 ).
: , , - .
: 1) ?; 2)
? : .
() .
( ) .
, .. .
8.13. = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 } .
A1 = {1 , 4 } ,
A2 = {2 , 4 } ,
A3 = {3 , 4 } ,
A4 = {4 } .
, A1 , A2 , A3 , .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

8: . .

72

. ,
A1 A2 = A1 A3 = A2 A3 = A1 A2 A3 = A4 ,

P(A1 A2 ) = P(A1 A3 ) = P(A2 A3 ) = P(A1 A2 A3 ) = P(A4 ) =


C ,
P(A1 ) = P(A2 ) = P(A3 ) =

1
,
2

P(A1 )P(A2 ) = P(A1 )P(A3 ) = P(A2 )P(A3 ) =


P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 ) =

1
.
4

1
,
4

1
.
8

,
P(A1 A2 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 ),
P(A1 A3 ) = P(A1 )P(A3 ),
P(A2 A3 ) = P(A2 )P(A3 ),

P(A1 A2 A3 ) 6= P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 ).


, () . A1 , A2 , A3 , A4 , P(A1 A2 A3 A4 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 )P(A4 ).
. .

Toc

JJ

II

9: .

73

A1 , A2 , A3 , A4 , A5 ,
P(A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 )P(A3 )P(A4 )P(A5 ). .
.
8.5. , A1 , A2 , . . . , An (, , ), , k 6 n
j1 , j2 , . . . , jk {1, 2, . . . , n},
P(Aj1 Aj2 . . . Ajk ) = P(Aj1 )P(Aj2 ) . . . P(Ajk ).
8.16. , n = 4. ?
8.17. n > 2.
n ?
9. .
9.1. H1 , . . . , Hn , A, . . A H1 + . . . + Hn
(. . 2).
P(A) = P(H1 )P(A|H1 ) + . . . + P(Hn )P(A|Hn ).
.
. A H1 + . . . + Hn . ,
A = A(H1 + . . . + Hn ) = AH1 + . . . + AHn = H1 A + . . . + Hn A.

. .

Toc

JJ

II

9: .

H1

H2

...

74

Hn

. 2: 9.1.
H1 , . . . , Hn .
H1 A, . . . , Hn A. ( 8.1)
, , P(H1 )P(A|H1 ), . . . , P(Hn )P(A|Hn ).
P(A) = P(H1 A + . . . + Hn A)
= P(H1 A) + . . . + P(Hn A)
= P(H1 )P(A|H1 ) + . . . + P(Hn )P(A|Hn ),
.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

9: .

75

. , Hi ?
. ,
A. A
H1 , . . . , Hn , , A
H1 , . . . , Hn . ,
: , H1 , . . . , Hn ,
A.
9.2. , ,
A . , i = 1, . . . , n,
P(Hi |A) =

P(Hi )P(A|Hi )
.
P(H1 )P(A|H1 ) + . . . + P(Hn )P(A|Hn )

. ,
P(A), .
. . ,
A Hi = Hi A
:
P(A) P(Hi |A) = P(Hi ) P(A|Hi ).

P(Hi ) P(A|Hi )
,
P(A)
(, , P(A) = P(H1 )P(A|H1 )+
. . . + P(Hn )P(A|Hn )).
P(Hi |A) =

. .

Toc

JJ

II

9: .

76

. , A ?
9.1. , 60% ,
25%, 15%. 1% , 1,5%,
2%.
1) . , ?
2) . ,
?
.
A = ,
H1 = 1- ,
H2 = 2- ,
H3 = 3- .

P(H1 ) = 0, 6,
P(H2 ) = 0, 25,
P(H3 ) = 0, 15,
1)

P(A|H1 ) = 0, 01,
P(A|H2 ) = 0, 015,
P(A|H3 ) = 0, 02.

P(A) = P(H1 ) P(A|H1 ) + P(H2 ) P(A|H2 ) + P(H3 ) P(A|H3 )


= 0, 6 0, 01 + 0, 25 0, 015 + 0, 15 0, 02 = 0, 01275.

. .

Toc

JJ

II

9: .

77

2)
P(H1 |A) =

P(H1 ) P(A|H1 )
0, 6 0, 01
=
= 0, 047 . . . .
P(A)
0, 01275

9.2. : H1 H2 . : P(H1 ) = 0, 6, P(H2 ) = 0, 4.


, . H1
0, 9, H2 0, 5.
1) , .
H1 H2 ?
2) , . H1 H2 ?
. A = .
A = . :
P(H1 ) = 0, 6, P(A|H1 ) = 0, 9, P(A|H1 ) = 0, 1;
P(H2 ) = 0, 4, P(A|H2 ) = 0, 5, P(A|H2 ) = 0, 5.
1)
P(A) = P(H1 ) P(A|H1 ) + P(H2 ) P(A|H2 ) = 0, 6 0, 1 + 0, 4 0, 5 = 0, 26.
, , :
P(H1 |A) =

. .

Toc

P(H1 ) P(A|H1 )
0, 6 0, 1
3
=
=
;
0, 26
13
P(A)
JJ

II

9: .

P(H2 |A) =

78

P(H2 ) P(A|H2 )
0, 4 0, 5
10
=
=
.
0, 26
13
P(A)

, ,
, ,
. , .
2) . , . , .
: .
.
B , , . ,
P(B|H1 ) = (P(A|H1 ))2 = (0, 1)2 = 0, 01;
P(B|H2 ) = (P(A|H2 ))2 = (0, 5)2 = 0, 25.

P(B) = P(H1 ) P(B|H1 ) + P(H2 ) P(B|H2 ) = 0, 6 0, 01 + 0, 4 0, 25 = 0, 106.
, ,
P(H1 ) P(B|H1 )
0, 6 0, 01
6
=
=
;
P(B)
0, 106
106
P(H2 ) P(B|H2 )
0, 4 0, 25
100
P(H2 |B) =
=
=
.
P(B)
0, 106
106

P(H1 |B) =

. .

Toc

JJ

II

9: .

79

, ,
! ,
.
, , , .
9.3 ( ). , , , , , , A, B C.
, , .
, , ,
. , , . ,
, . , ? :
?
. ,
, , 12 . , ,

.
, A,
B ( ). MB
e X, X
B, X
e B
eC
e . :
{A, B, C}. , A,
e = 1 , B C ;
P(MB|A)
2

. .

Toc

JJ

II

9: .

80

e = 0, ,
P(MB|B)
;
e = 1, B, P(MB|C)

C.
e
e
P(A|MB)
P(C|MB),
,
A C, , B.
:
e P(A)
e
P(MB|A)
e
P(A|MB)
=
e P(A)
e + P(MB|B)
e P(B)
e + P(MB|C)
e P(C)
e
P(MB|A)
=
=

1
2
1
2

1
3

+0

1
3
1
3

+1

1
3

1
;
3


e
P(C|MB)
=
=

e P(C)
e
P(MB|C)
e P(A)
e + P(MB|B)
e P(B)
e + P(MB|C)
e P(C)
e
P(MB|A)
1
1
2

1
3

+0

1
3
1
3

+1

1
3

2
.
3
, ,
!
=

. .

Toc

JJ

II

81

10.
10.1.
10.1. 10 . 12 .
, ?
. - , , 1-, 2-, 3-, . . .
1- 10 .
10 2- . 10 10, . . 102
. 102
10 3- . 102 10, . . 103
. 9 , , 12
1012 .
10.2. n . k .
, ?
. 1-, 2-, 3-, . . 1- n
. n 2- .
n n, . . n2 .
n2 n 3- . n2 n, . . n3 .
k 3 , , k nk .
, , (
, , ).
. .

Toc

JJ

II

10:

82

k k
n . An (A arrangement,
).
k

An = nk .
,
.
10.3. k- ?
. .
S1 S S ,
S1 , . , H0
H1 . H1 S1 , H0 .
, ,
k , , ,
2k .
10.1. . ( 32 , )?
10.2.
10.4. 10 . 7 . ,
?
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

10:

83

. ) 1- 10 .
9 , , 9 2-
. 10 9, .. 10 9 10
.
) 10 9 .
8 , , 8 3- .
10 9 8, .. 10 9 8 10
.
) 10 9 8 .
7 , , 7 4- .
10 9 8 7, .. 10 9 8 7 4-
10 .
...
) 10 9 8 . . . 5 .
4 , , 4
7- . 10 9 8 . . . 5 4, . . 10 9 8 7 . . . 5 4
7 10 .
10.5. n , k . ,
?
. Akn . 1- n : A1n = n. n 1
, , n 1 2- . 2-x
. .

Toc

JJ

II

10:

84

A1n n 1 ,
A2n = A1n (n 2) = n (n 1).
, 3- n 2
, , n 2 . 3-x A2n
(n 2) ,
A3n = A2n (n 2) = n (n 1) (n 2).

k- , (k 1) n ,
n (k 1) , , n (k 1) .
k Ak1
n (k 1) ,
n
Akn = Ak1
(n (k 1)) = n (n 1) . . . (n (k 1)).
n
,
Akn = n (n 1) . . . (n (k 1)) .
10.1. :
, k > n. 7 5
, ?
. (, ,
5, 5.)
( !).

. .

Toc

JJ

II

10:

85

10.3.
An
n , n n,
: n-, Pn . k = n, n (k 1) =
n (n 1) = 1. n 1 (
1 n, ).
n! -.
,
Pn = An
n = n (n 1) . . . 2 1 = n!.

1! = 1,

0! = 1.

:
0! = 1; 1! = 1; 2! = 1 2 = 2;
3! = 1 2 3 = 2! 3 = 2 3 = 6;
4! = 1 2 3 4 = 3! 4 = 6 4 = 24;
5! = 1 2 3 4 5 = 4! 5 = 24 5 = 120.
10.1. 10!.
10.6. k ?
. k .
k 1 .
k k 1, k (k 1) .
k 2 . k (k 1) (k 2)
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

10:

86

. . , k-,
, . k (k 1) . . . 1 = k!
.
10.4.
, k 6 n. , k 6 n.
n k > 0. , (n k)! :
Akn = n (n 1) . . . (n (k 1))
n (n 1) . . . (n (k 1)) (n k) . . . 1
(n k) . . . 1
n!
.
=
(n k)!
=

, :
Akn =

n!
.
(n k)!

. n . k
: , , . . . , k-.
, n
k , -

. .

Toc

JJ

II

10:

87

. ,
n k ,

) )
k n.
n k\ .
"
,

(7)

k- ,
k .
10.2. 1 2; 1, 2, 3; 1, 2, 3, 4.
10.5.
10.7. n , k .
n k
?
. (7). ,

 



Akn =

k n
k
( ) k n
Ckn , k k!.
:
Akn = Ckn k!,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

10:

88

Akn
.
k!
k n

n k , , Ckn ( ) n
k ( ).
,
 
n
n!
k
Cn =
=
.
k
k!(n k)!
Ckn =

10.6.
10.2. A B 6 , B C
4 . , B, A C?
10.3.
. 16
. ?
10.4. 16 .
. ?
10.5.
. 323 . ?
10.6. .
156 . ?
10.7. ,
?

. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

10:

89

10.8. ,
. ?
10.9. 7 5 :
, , , , .
,
?
10.10.
, ,
. ,
11 ? ,
?
10.11. ,
?
10.12. ,
?
10.13. ,
?
10.14. ,
, ?
10.15. ,
, ?

. .

Toc

JJ

II

10:

90

10.7.
Ckn . , , . Ckn , .
10.1. n k:
0 C0n = Cn
n = 1;
1 C1n = n;
2 Ckn = Cnk
;
n
3 Ckn + Ck+1
= Ck+1
n
n+1 ( ).
.

3.
Ckn + Ck+1
=
n
=
=
=
=

n!
n!
+
=
k!(n k)! (k + 1)!(n (k + 1))!


1
n!
1
=
+
k!(n (k + 1))! n k k + 1
n!
n+1

=
k!(n (k + 1))! (k + 1)(n k)
(n + 1)!
=
(k + 1)!(n k)!
(n + 1)!
=
(k + 1)!((n + 1) (k + 1))!

= Ck+1
n+1 .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

10:

91

10.16. .
, 10.1, Ckn
:
C00
C01

C11
+

C02

C12
+

C03
C04
C05

C22
+

C13

C23

C33

C14

C24

C34

C44

C15

C25

C35

C45

C55

...................................................
. , , 3, ,
( ) .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

10:

92

1
1

1
+

2
+

3
+

1
1

1
+

3
+

1
+

10

10

.............................................

.
10.8.
10.2. m, n p, p 6 min{m, n},
:
p
P
1 Cp
Ckm Cpk
;
n
m+n =
k=0

2 Cn
2n =

n
P

(Ckn )2 .

k=0

.
. .

1 . p
Toc

JJ

II

10:

93

m + n. - m , S1 ,
, S2 . p p + 1 : 0) 0 S1 , p
S2 , 1) 1- S1 , p 1- S2 , . . . , p 1)
p 1- S1 , 1- S2 , , , p) p
S1 , 0 S2 . : 0) C0m Cp0
n
;
.
.
.

; 1) C1m Cp1
n
k) Ckm Cpk
; . . . p1)
n
p(p1)
pp
Cp1
Cn
; p) Cp
m
m Cn
.
0
C0m Cp0
+ C1m Cp1
+ . . . Ckm Cpk
+ . . . + Cp1
C1n + Cp
n
n
n
m
m Cn

, .
10.9.
10.3. a b
n,
n  
X
n nk k
n
a
b =
(a + b) =
k
k=0
 
 




 
n n 0
n n1
n
n
n 0 n
2 n2
n1
=
a b +
a
b + ... +
a b
+
ab
+
a b =
0
1
n2
n1
n
n(n 1) n2 2
n(n 1) 2 n2
= an + nan1 b +
a
b + ... +
a b
+ nabn1 + bn .
2
2
. .

Toc

JJ

II

10:

94

. ,
(a + b)n = (a + b) (a + b) . . . (a + b),
(a + b) n .
. n, a b, .
ank bk , k b, a.
?
, k n,

n
.
,

, ank bk
k
n
k . .
10.10.
, n k 6 n:
n

P
n
n
10.17.
k =2 .
10.18.
10.19.

k=0
n
P
k=0
n
P

(1)k

n
k

= 0.

(1)k 2nk

k=0
n
P

n
k

= 1.


n
9k n
k = 10 .
k=0


n1
10.21. k n
k = n k1 .
n

P
n1
10.22.
k n
.
k = n2
10.20.

k=0

. .

Toc

JJ

II

95

10.23.
10.24.

n
P
k=0
n
P

(1)k1 k
(k + 1)

k=0

n
k

n
k

= 0.

= (n + 2)2n1 .

11.
11.1 ( ). N , K
. n . ,
k ?
. n N Cn
N . .
.
k K CkK . nk
. N K. n k
nk
N K CNK
. ,
nk
CkK CNK ,
CkK Cnk
NK
.
Cn
N
11.1. 10 , 6 .
5 . , 3 ?
11.2. 10 . 2 .
2
, , 15
. ?

. .

Toc

JJ

II

11:

96

11.2 ( ). k .
, ?
. , k . 365k (?).
, , A ,
. , A,
, k .
? , k 365 . ,
, Ak365 . , , k

Ak365
365 364 . . . (365 (k 1))
=
.
k
365
365k
:
P(A) =

365 364 . . . (365 (k 1))


.
365k
P(A) , , k
. P(A) k :
P(A) = 1 P(A) = 1

10

22

23

30

60

P(A)
0,027 0,117 0,476 0,507 0,706 0,994
( , , ). ,
23 ,
, , , ,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

11:

97

60, !

.
11.3. k , 10 .
, ?
A :
k

10

11

12

...

P(A)
P(A)
( k > 10 Akn ( )).

(-9).
11.4. 4 , 6 , 7 5 .
. ,
, .
11.5. : , , , , , , , .
,
?
11.6. : , , , , , .
,
?
11.7. 4 6 .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

98

3 . , ? ? ?
11.8. 60 , , 50.
. , ?
12. .
12.1. A ,
A. A , A
, .
, .
p. ,
1 p. q.
,
p = P(),

q = 1 p = 1 P() = P() .

n n
, Pn (k) , n k . , Pn (k)
hn = ki:
Pn (k) = P(n = k).
.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

12: .

99

, Pn (k) p, n, k. .
12.1. 5 p.
, 2 5 ?
. 5-
, , . , , , , , ,
. . . , , .
,
.
, ,
, , , ,
.
,
.

pqqpq = p2 q3 .
, .
? , . , ,
C25 . , C25 ,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

12: .

100

. ( , , ). P5 (2)
, , C25 p2 q3 :
P5 (2) = C25 p2 q3 .
.
12.2. n p.
, n k ?
, , :
n!
pk qnk .
Pn (k) = Ckn pk qnk =
k!(n k)!
.
12.3. 5 . , :
) 2 , ) , ) .
. , . .
p = q = 0, 5.
) n = 5, k = 2. :
 2  3
5!
1
1
10
5
2
P5 (2) = C5
= 2!3!
=
=
.
2
2
25
32
16
. .

Toc

JJ

II

12: .

101

) n = 5, k < 2, . . n = 5 k = 0, 1. :
 5
 2  3
1
1
1
1+5
3
P5 (k < 2) = P5 (0) + P5 (1) = C05
+ C15

=
=
.
2
2
2
32
16
) n = 5, k > 2, . . n = 5 , k < 2.
13
3
=
.
P5 (k > 2) = 1 P5 (k < 2) = 1
16
16
12.4. . ,
?
. .
31 (?). :
 4  3
1
2
1 8
280
P7 (4) = C37
= 35

=
.
3
3
81 27
2187
12.5. . ,
?
. . 13 . 6 > 3, : 6 = 4, 6 = 5, 6 = 6.
. :
P(6 > 3) = P6 (4) + P6 (5) + P6 (6)
 4  2
 5  1
 6  0
1
2
1
2
1
2
4
5
6
= C6
+ C6
+ C6
3
3
3
3
3
3
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

12: .

102

 6
1
=
(15 22 + 5 21 + 1 20 )
3
71
.
=
729
12.6. - .
, , p = 0, 4. 5
,
. :
?
. , . 3, 4 5. :
P(k > 3) = P5 (3) + P5 (4) + P5 (5) =
= C35 (0, 4)3 (0, 6)2 + C45 (0, 4)4 (0, 6)1 + C55 (0, 4)5 (0, 6)0 =
= 10 0, 064 0, 36 + 5 0, 256 0, 6 + 1 0, 01024 1 =
= 0, 31744.
. , , .
!
12.1. ) ,
. ?
) , , , .
?

. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

103

12.2. 5 . ) ,
. )
5 .
12.3. 5 . ) : 4- 2- ? )
5 .
12.4. 5 . ) ,
. ) 5 .
12.5. 5 . ) :
? )
5 .
12.6. 25 .
, ,
. ,
, 7 ?
12.7 ( ).
, 12 ?
13.
13.1. 1 10 . 0, 5. , 0, 1,
. . . , 10 .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

13:

104

. n = 10, p = q = 21 k = 0,
p = q
1, 2, . . . 10. , , Ckn = Cnk
n
Pn (k) = Pn (n k), , k,
 10
1
1
1
k nk
k nk
n
p q
=p p
=p =
.
= 10 =
2
2
1024
:
1
1
=
;
1024
1024
1
10
P10 (1) = P10 (9) = C110
=
;
1024
1024
45
1
=
;
P10 (2) = P10 (8) = C210
1024
1024
1
120
P10 (3) = P10 (7) = C310
=
;
1024
1024
1
210
P10 (4) = P10 (6) = C410
=
;
1024
1024
1
252
P10 (5) = C510
=
.
1024
1024
, Pn (k) , , . P10 (5). , .
. , 252
. 0, 5, , 1024
,
.
P10 (0) = P10 (10) = C010

. .

Toc

JJ

II

13:

105

. , n : k Pn (k)
, , .
, n ,
k Pn (k) < Pn (k + 1). :
k+1 k n(k+1)
Pn (k) < Pn (k + 1) Ckn pk qnk < Cn
p q

n!pk+1 qn(k+1)
n!pk qnk
<
k!(n k)!
(k + 1)!(n (k + 1))!
q
p

<
nk
k+1
(k + 1)q < (n k)p

k(p + q) < np q
k < np q.
,

Pn (k) < Pn (k + 1) k < np q.

,
Pn (k) > Pn (k + 1) k > np q
Pn (k) = Pn (k + 1) k = np q.
Pn (k). , , k 6 np q, , k > np q.
, Pn (k) , k np q,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

13:

106

k 1 6 np q k > np q.

k k0 , k0 :
k0 1 6 np q k0 > np q,
, ,
k0 6 np q + 1 k0 > np q.

np q 6 k0 6 np q + 1 = np + p.
. Pn (k) k0 ,

np q 6 k0 6 np + p.
np q , k0 : k0 = np q k0 = np + p.
np q ( ), Pn (k)
k0 , .
13.1. k = k0 , Pn (k) ,
A n .
: n
, A p,
k0 ,
np q 6 k0 6 np + p.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

13:

107

( np q ), (
np q ). , np ,
A n .
13.2. ) 8, ) 9 , 0,8
. k0 ?
. p = 0, 8, q = 0, 2. ) n = 8
8 0, 8 0, 2 6 k0 6 8 0, 8 + 0, 8,
k0 = 7.
) n = 9
9 0, 8 0, 2 6 k0 6 9 0, 8 + 0, 8,

7 6 k0 6 8,
k0 = 7 8.
13.1. 16 . ? ?
17 ? 210 ? 211 ? 4000 ? 4001 ?
13.2. 10 .
? ? 11? 12? 13? 14? 15? (
0,5.)
13.3. 15 .
, 6 ? 5 ? ?
30 ? 31 ? 32 ? 33 ? 34 ? 35 ? 36 ?

. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

108

13.4. 35 . , ? ? ? ?
50 ? 75 ? 100 ? 150 ?
13.5.
15 . , 9? 10? 11? 12? ? ?
? ? 16 ?
17 ? 18 ? 19 ? 20 ? 21 ? 50 ? 75 ? 100 ? 150 ?
13.6. 99 . 60. ?
14. -
Pn (k) n k
. , . ,
:
1 2
1
(x) = e 2 x .
2
, .
14.1. .
,
, , . .

Toc

JJ

II

14: -

109

, . ,
x.
14.1 ( -). n p,
0 < p < 1. n
1
Pn (k)
(x),
npq

1 2
1
(x) = e 2 x ,
2

k np
x=
.
npq

n , p n. : npq. ,
npq > 10.
14.1. 0,3. , 100 60 .
.
, .
n = 100, p = 0, 7, q = 0, 3, k = 60. npq = 100 0, 7 0, 3 = 21 > 10,
-.
:

npq = 100 0, 7 0, 3 = 4, 58,


. .

Toc

JJ

II

110

k np
10
x=
=
= 2, 18.
npq
4, 58
x (x); 0,0371.
- :
0, 0371
= 0, 008.
P100 (60)
4, 58
15. -
15.1 ( -). n p,
0 < p < 1. n
Pn (k1 6 k 6 k2 ) (x2 ) (x1 ),

1
(x) =
2

Zx

1 2

e 2 t dt,

k1 np
x1 =
,
npq

k2 np
x2 =
.
npq

, npq > 10.


.
. (x) ,
x.
15.1. 0,8. 900 .
, 710 740 ?
. .

Toc

JJ

II

15: -

111

. n = 900, p = 0, 8, q = 0, 2, k1 = 710, k2 = 740.


P900 (710 6 k 6 740).
:
P900 (710 6 k 6 740) = P900 (710) + P900 (711) + . . . + P900 (740).

. . -. npq = 9000, 80, 2 =
144 > 10, .
:

npq = 900 0, 8 0, 2 = 144 = 12,


k1 np
710 720
10
x1 =
=
=
0, 83,
npq
12
12
k2 np
740 720
20
x2 =
=
=
1, 67.
npq
12
12
:
(0, 83) = (0, 83) 0, 2967,

(1, 67) 0, 4525.

P900 (710 6 k 6 740) 0, 4525 (0, 2967) = 0, 7492.

. .

Toc

JJ

II

112

16.
, -
npq. , , p q,
( , , ), n.
p q
- . .

16.1 ( ). , 1, 2, . . . , n, . . . ,
pn = n
,
, n. k
Pn (k)

k
e
n .
k!

.
n!
Pn (k) =
pk (1 p)nk .
k!(n k)!
p =

n,

 k 
nk
n!

1
=
k!(n k)! n
n

n
k

n(n 1) . . . (n k + 1)
=
1
=
k
k!
n
nk 1

Pn (k) =

. .

Toc

JJ

II

16:

k
k!


1

n

1 1

113


1

... 1

k
1 n


k1
n

,

n

lim 1
= e ,
n
n

lim

1 1

1
n

... 1

k
1 n

k1
n


= 1.

.

16.1 ( ). n
p
k
Pn (k)
e .
k!
np2 . , k


k


Pn (k) e < np2 .


k!
, k1 , k2 , . . . , ks ,
...,


 k1

k2


Pn (k) + + . . . e < np2 .


k1 !
k2 !
16.1. C 400 . ,
, 0,5%. , : 3 ? 5 7 ?
. .

Toc

JJ

II

114

. n = 400, p = 0, 005, = np = 2.

23 2
e 0, 1804;
3!
 5

2
26 27
P400 (5 6 k 6 7) e2
+
+
0, 05.
5!
6!
7!
P400 (3)

17.

. jk , , j + k , . X : R, :
X(jk ) = j + k.
.
17.1. (, p) .
c X : R.
, .
X,
.
X(11 ) = 2;
X(12 ) = X(21 ) = 3;
X(13 ) = X(22 ) = X(31 ) = 4;
X(14 ) = X(23 ) = X(32 ) = X(41 ) = 5;
. .
JJ
II
J
Toc

17:

115

X(15 ) = X(24 ) = X(33 ) = X(42 ) = X(51 ) = 6;


X(16 ) = X(25 ) = X(34 ) = X(43 ) = X(52 ) = X(61 ) = 7;
X(26 ) = X(35 ) = X(44 ) = X(53 ) = X(62 ) = 8;
X(36 ) = X(45 ) = X(54 ) = X(63 ) = 9;
X(46 ) = X(55 ) = X(64 ) = 10;
X(56 ) = X(65 ) = 11;
X(66 ) = 12.
hX = xi , ,
X x, P(X = x) . :
hX = 2i = {11 } ;

P(X = 2) = 1/36;

hX = 3i = {12 , 21 } ;

P(X = 3) = 2/36 = 1/18;

hX = 4i = {13 , 22 , 31 } ;

P(X = 4) = 3/36 = 1/12;

hX = 5i = {14 , 23 , 32 , 41 } ;

P(X = 5) = 4/36 = 1/9;

hX = 6i = {15 , 24 , 33 , 42 , 51 } ;

P(X = 6) = 5/36;

hX = 7i = {16 , 25 , 34 , 43 , 52 , 61 } ;

P(X = 7) = 6/36 = 1/6;

hX = 8i = {26 , 35 , 44 , 53 , 62 } ;

P(X = 8) = 5/36;

hX = 9i = {36 , 45 , 54 , 63 } ;

P(X = 9) = 4/36 = 1/9;

hX = 10i = {46 , 55 , 64 } ;

P(X = 10) = 3/36 = 1/12;

hX = 11i = {56 , 65 } ;

P(X = 11) = 2/36 = 1/18;

hX = 12i = {66 } ;

P(X = 12) = 1/36.

. .

Toc

JJ

II

17:

116

, , ,
.
X x1 x2 . . . xn
,
P p1 p2 . . . pn
x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ( ) , X, p1 , p2 , . . . , pn , X
.
X. ( .)
:
X
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
5
4
3
2
1
P 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
36
36
.
. .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

17:

117

, xi , X = xi
, x1 , . . . , xn ,
- . , X =
xi , ,
1:
p1 + p2 + . . . + pn = 1.
17.1. 5 , 0,9.
, .
. X , , . .

Toc

JJ

II

17:

118

. 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 . , ,
n = 5, p = 0, 9, q = 1 p = 0, 1: P5 (k) = Ck5 (0, 9)k (0, 1)5k . , :
0
1
2
3
4
5
X
.
pi P5 (0) P5 (1) P5 (2) P5 (3) P5 (4) P5 (5)
17.1. P5 (0), P5 (1), . . . , P5 (5)
. .
17.1. . ,
, .
.

. .

Toc

JJ

II

119

17.2. A . A IA , :

1, A;
IA () =
0,
/ A.
, :
1 0. IA () = 1 , A, IA () = 0
,
/ A. , [IA = 1] = A, [IA = 0] = A. ,
:
IA
0
1
P 1 P(A) P(A)
, I , , I ,
.
17.2. A, B . ,
IAB = IA IB ;
IA+B = IA + IB IA IB ;
IA\B = IA IA IB ;
IA = 1 IA .
18.
,
.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

18:

120

18.1. X, Y (, P), R. :
(X + Y)() = X() + Y();
( X)() = X();
(X Y)() = X() Y(),
.
, .
.
18.1. p, B1
1- , B2 .
B1 , B2 , 2B1 , B1 + B1 , B1 + B2 .
. B1 B2 :
B1 0 1
B2 0 1
,
.
q p
q p
2B1 0, 2 . :
2B1 = 0 B1 = 0,

2B1 = 2 B1 = 1,

P(2B1 = 0) = P(B1 = 0) = q,

P(2B1 = 2) = P(B1 = 1) = p.

, 2B1
. .

Toc

JJ

II

18:

121

0 2
.
q p
X = B1 + B1 0 + 0, 0 + 1, 1 + 0 1 + 1,
0, 1 2. , . ,

X = 0 B1 + B1 = 0 B1 = 0, B1 + B1 = 2 B1 = 1.
2B1

X = 1 (B1 = 0 B1 = 1) (B1 = 1 B1 = 0).

, hX =
1i , X = B1 + B1
1.
, X
B1 + B1 0 2
,
q p
, , , B1 + B1 = 2B1 .
, Y = B1 + B2 . 0 + 0, 0 + 1, 1 + 0 1 + 1, 0, 1 2. ,
. ,
B1 + B2 = 0 B1 = 0 B2 = 0,

B1 + B2 = 2 B1 = 1 B2 = 1.

,
P(Y = 0) = P(hB1 = 0i hB2 = 0i) = P(B1 = 0) P(B2 = 0) = q q = q2

. .

Toc

P(Y = 2) = p2 .
JJ
II
J

18:

122

Y = 1 B1 + B2 = 1 (B1 = 1 B2 = 0) (B1 = 0 B2 = 1).


,
P(Y = 1) = pq + qp = 2pq.
, B1 + B2
:
B1 + B2
0
1
2
.
q2 2pq p2
: B1 + B2 = 2 , 2 .
18.1. B1 + B2 + B3
, , 3 .
18.2. . X1 , ., X2 , , ., . X1 + X2 , X1 X2 , X1 X2 , X21 , X21 + X22 ,
X21 X22 , (X1 + X2 )2 , (X1 X2 )2 .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

123

19.
19.1. N
k1 x1 ,
k2 x2 ,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,
kn xn ,
xj k1 + k2 + . . . + kn = N. M
. :
x1 k1 + x2 k2 + . . . + xn kn
M=
k1 + k2 + . . . + kn
x1 k1 + x2 k2 + . . . + xn kn
=
N
k1
k2
kn
+ x2
+ . . . + xn .
= x1
N
N
N
. X() . = {1 , 2 , . . . , N } X ,
:
X() = { }.
, X
xj , , xj ,
kj , xj ,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

19:

124

N :

kj
.
N
, ,
k2
kn
k1
+ x2
+ . . . + xn
M = x1
N
N
N
= x1 P(X = x1 ) + x2 P(X = x2 ) + . . . + xn P(X = xn )
P(X = xj ) =

n
X

x j pj .

j=1

, , , .
19.1. X
n
X
M(X) =
xj pj ,
i=1

x1 , . . . , xn X, p1 , . . . , pn ,
X .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

19:

125

19.2. , :
.
0,5 5000 ..,
0,2 10000 .. 0,3 3000 ..
: 5500 0,6, 5000 0,3
6500 0,1.
?
. . X Y. .
X 3000 5000 10000
Y 5000 5500 6500
p
0,3
0,5
0,2
p
0,3
0,6
0,1
:
M(X) = 3000 0, 3 + 5000 0, 5 + 10000 0, 2 = 5400 .,
M(Y) = 5000 0, 3 + 5500 0, 6 + 6500 0, 1 = 5450 .,
, M(X) < M(Y). ,
.
19.2 ( ). X
Y ,
, . . x X y Y
hX = xi hY = yi .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

19:

126

19.1 ( ).
1 M(0) = 0, M(1) = 1 , , M( 1) = R.
2 A, M(IA ) = P(A).
3 M(X + Y) = M(X) + M(Y).
4 M( X) = M(X).
5 M(1 X1 + . . . + s Xs ) = 1 M(X1 ) + . . . + s M(Xs ).
6 M(X M(X)) = 0.
7 X > 0, M(X) > 0.
8 X 6 Y, M(X) 6 M(Y).
9 X > 0, M(X) = 0, P(X = 0) = 1.
10 X Y , :
M(X Y) = M(X) M(Y).
19.3.
p. Bj ,
j, 1, j , 0,
. M(Bj ).
. M(Bj ) = 1 p + 0 (1 p) = p.
19.4. n n p. M(n ).
. .

Toc

JJ

II

127

. ,
n = B1 + B2 + . . . + Bn =

n
X

Bj .

j=1

5 , :
M(n ) = M(B1 ) + M(B2 ) + . . . + M(Bn ) =
= p + p + ... + p =
|
{z
}
n

= np.
,
M(n ) = np.
20.
, ,
.
, , X Y :
X 101 99
Y
0
200
p 0,5 0,5
p 0,5 0,5
, , 0,5 101 ..
0,5 99 .., , 0,5
200 .., 0,5 .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

20:

128

:
M(X) = M(Y) = 100.
X M(X) , Y
. : , 100 . ., .
, , , ,
.

. .
20.1. X D(X)

:
D(X) = M((X M(X))2 ).
, . X M(X)
. X M(X)
X M(X).
:
(X M(X))2 .
X.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

20:

129

20.1 ( ).
1 D(X) > 0.
2 D(X) = M(X2 ) (M(X))2 .
3 R
D(X) = 2 D(X),

D(X + ) = D(X).

4 X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ,
D(X1 + X2 + . . . + Xn ) = D(X1 ) + D(X2 ) + . . . + D(Xn ).
20.1. p. Bj j, j N,
n n (
n = B1 + B2 + . . . + Bn ).
D(Bj ) D(n ).
. j,
D(Bj ) = M(B2j ) (M(Bj ))2 = M(Bj ) (M(Bj ))2 = p p2 = P(1 p) = pq,
,
D(n ) = D(B1 + . . . + Bn ) = D(B1 ) + . . . + D(Bn ) = n pq.

. .

Toc

JJ

II

130

21.
1. X, n
x1 , . . . , xn ,
1
pk = Pn (X = xk ) = .
n
-.
2. n n
pk = P(n = k) = Pn (k) = Ckn pk qnk ,

k = 0, . . . , n.

. ( , ,
).
3. , X
, .
pk = P(X = k) = pqm1 ,

k = 0, 1, 2, . . . .

. ( , ).
4.
pk = P(X = k) = e
. .

Toc

JJ

k
,
k!

II

k = 0, 1, 2, . . . .
J

131

22.
, , . . .
,
( , ). ,
, : x
P(X = x) = 0.
.
,
, .

P( < X < ), , R = = +. ,
, P(X < ) R
P( < X < ) .
, , R < :
P(X < ) = P(X < ) + P(X = ) + P( < X < ) = P(X < ) + P( < X < ),

P( < X < ) = P(X < ) P(X < ).

. .

Toc

JJ

II

22:

132

22.1. FX : R R, X
FX (x) = P(X < x),
X.

.
. .
,
, ,
, .
22.2. FX X , , .

X pX fX .
: X, :
X. X ( ).
, pX ( fX ) X FX :
pX = fX = FX0 .
C , F X
. .

Toc

JJ

II

22:

133

f
Zx
F(x) =
f(t) dt.

X (, )
Z
P( < X < ) = F() F() =

f(x) dx,

F(x) , f(x) .
[, ] (, ] [, ).
22.1 ( ).
1 .
2 .
3 F() = 0,

F(+) = 1 (. .

lim F(x) = 0,

lim F(x) = 1).

x+

M(X) D(X) X

Z
Z
M(X) =
xf(x) dx, D(X) =
[x M(X)]2 f(x) dx,

f(x) . , D(X)
. .

Toc

JJ

II

22:

134


D(X) = M(X2 ) M2 (X),

M(X ) =
2

x2 f(x) dx.

22.3. X , , :
M(X) = 0,

2 (X) = 1.

22.1 ( ). X , a
, 2 (.. M(X) = a, D(X) = 2 ). :
1

St(X) =

Xa

2 , R


a
P(X < ) = P St(X) <
,



a
P(X > ) = P St(X) >
,



a
a
P( < X < ) = P
< St(X) <
.

.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

22:

135

.
22.1. !
22.1. X

0,
x 6 1,

1
1
F(x) =
x + , 1 < x 6 2,

3
3
1,
x > 2.
,
) 2, ) 1, ) 1 0, ) 1, )
3.
.
)
)
)

P( < X < 2) = F(2) F() = 0 0 = 0.



P( < X < 1) = F(1) F() =

P(0 < X < 1) = F(1) F(0) =
=

. .

1
1
x+
3
3

0 =
x=1

2
.
3




1
1
1
1

=
x+
x+


3
3 x=1
3
3 x=0

2 1
1
= .
3 3
3

P(X > 1) = P(1 6 X < ) = F() F(1) = 1

Toc

JJ

II

2
1
= .
3
3

22:

136

P(X > 3) = P(3 6 X < ) = F() F(3) = 1 1 = 0.

22.2. X

0,
x 6 0

1
f(x) =
sin x, 0 < x 6

2
0,
x > .

) F(x),
) , X , (0, /3).
Zx
. ) F(x) =

f(t) dt.

x 6 0

Zx

x
0 dt = C = C C = 0.

F(x) =

0 < x 6
Zx
F(x) =

f(t) dt =

. .

Z0

Zx
0 dt +

1
sin t dt =
2

x 1
0 1
1
1


= 0 + ( cos t) = cos t = (cos 0 cos x) = (1 cos x).
2
2
2
2
0
x

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

22:

137

x >
Zx
F(x) =

Z0
f(t) dt =

= 0+

Z
0 dt +

1
2

Zx
1
sin t dt + 0 dt =
2


1

sin t dt + 0 = ( cos t) =
2
0

0 1
1
1

=
cos t = (cos 0 cos ) = 2 = 1.
2
2
2

0,

1
F(x) =
(1 cos x),

2
1,


) P 0 < X <
=
3


/3
Z

x 6 0,
0 < x 6 ,
x > .

/3
1
1

sin t dt = ( cos t) =
2
2
0



0
1
1
 1
1
1

cos t =
cos 0 cos
=
1
= .
=
2
2
3
2
2
4
/3

. .

Toc

JJ

II

22:

138

22.3. X

x 6 0
0,
F(x) =
x2 , 0 < x 6 1

1,
x > 1.
M(X) D(X).

0,
f(x) =
2x,

0,

M(X)

x 6 0
0 < x 6 1
x > 1.

Z0

Z1
0 x dx + x 2x dx +

xf(x) dx =

x 0 dx =
1

Z1

0

x3 1
= c + 2 x2 dx + c 1 = 0 + 2 + 0 =
3 0
0

2 3
2
(1 03 ) = ,
3
3

M(X )

x2 2x dx =

x f(x) dx =

. .

4
,
9

Z1
2

M2 (X) =

Toc

JJ

II

22:

Z1
= 2 x3 dx = 2

139

x4 1 x4 1 1
=
= ,
4 0
2 0 2

1 4
1
=
0,06.
2 9
18
22.2. X

0,
x 6 2

1
F(x) =
x 1, 2 < x 6 4

2
1,
x > 4.
D(X) = M(X2 ) M2 (X) =

,
) 1, ) 3, ) 3,5 2,5, ) 3, )
5.
.
) 0, ) 1/2, ) 1/2, ) 1/2, ) 0.
22.3. X

0,
x 6 ,

f(x) =
cos x, < x 6 ,

2
2
2

0,
x > .
2

) F(x),
) , X (0, /6).
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

140

0,

1
F(x) =
(1 + sin x),

1,

x 6
2

< x 6
2
2
x > .
2

P(0 < X < /6) = 1/4 = 0,25.

22.4. X

x 6 0
0,
1 2
3
F(x) =
(x + x ), 0 < x 6 1
2
1,
x > 1.
M(X) D(X).
.
M(X) = 17/24 0,71, D(X) 0,05.
23.
X a , f(x)
2

f(x) =

(xa)
1
e 22 .
2

,
M(X) = a,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

D(X) = 2 .
J

23:

141

,
X a
a , .
a = 0, = 1 , ,
x2
1
(x) = e 2 ,
2

Zx
t2
1
1
(x) =
e 2 dt = + (x),
2
2

(x) .

U. , U ,
21 + (x).
23.1.
X a 2
(, )




a
a
P( < X < ) =

. .

Toc

JJ

II

23:

142

. , (22.1),




a
Xa
a
a
a
P( < X < ) = P
<
<
<U<
=P
=




 

 


a
a
1
a
1
a
=

=
+

+
=





a
a

.
=

23.2. X a
 

P(|X a| < ) = 2
.

,
P(|X a| < ) = 2(1) 0, 6826,
P(|X a| < 2) = 2(2) 0, 9544,
P(|X a| < 3) = 2(3) 0, 9973.
. ,


Xa

P(|X a| < ) = P( < X a < ) = P


<
<
=



 


 

=P
<U<
=

= 2
.

. .

Toc

JJ

II

23:

143

, , , X
3, , . . 1. 3.
23.1. X .
6, 9. , X , (3, 12).
2 = 9, , = 3.




12 6
36
P(3 < X < 12) =

= (2) (1) =
3
3

. a = 6,

= (2) + (1) 0,4772 + 0,3413 = 0,8185.


23.2. X . 4.
, X
a 3.

. a . ,
. 2 = 4, = 2.


 
3
Xa
3
3
P(|Xa| < 3) = P(3 < Xa < 3) = P
<
<
= 2
= 2(1,5) 20,4332 =

2
23.3. X , a = 6, = 3.
(, ) a, 0,9973 X
.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

23:

144

.
P( < X < ) = 0,9973.
3
P(|X a| < 3) = 0,9973

P(a 3 < X < a + 3) 0,9973.

= a 3 = 6 3 3 = 3,
= a + 3 = 6 + 3 3 = 15.
, (3, 15).
23.4. , a = 1
= 10 .
1) : ) 990 ; ) 990 1010 ; )
1010 ?
2) a
: ) 0,9974; ) 0,9; ) 0,95; ) 0,99?
. X ,
. M(X) = a = 1000 , (X) = = 10 .
1) , 990 , , 990 ::::
::::::
::
0, P(0 6 X < 990) =
P(0 < X < 990).
. .

Toc

JJ

II

23:

145

1000
990 1000
<U<
=
10
10
1
= P(100 < U < 1) = (1) (100) = (100) (1) (1).
2
1: (1) = 0, 3413.
, P(0 < X < 990) = 0, 5 0, 3413 = 0, 1587. ,
15,87%.
1), 1) , :
P(0 < X < 990) = P

0a
Xa
990 a
<
<

=P

P(990 < X < 1010) = P(1 < U < 1) = (1) (1) = 2(1) = 0, 6826;
P(X > 1010) = P(U > 1) = 1 (1) = 1 (0, 5 + (1)) = 0, 5 (1) = 0, 1587.
, , , 68,26% 15,87%.
2) 0,9973 P(|X a| < 3). P(|X a| <
3) = P(|X a| < 30). , 0,9973 ,
, 970 1030 .
2) 23.2
 

P(|X a| < ) = 2
.

(x), 2(x) =
0, 9, (x) = 0, 45 ( ).
0,4505. x = 1, 65. ,

= 1, 65,
= 1, 65,

10
. .

Toc

JJ

II

146

= 16, 5. , 0,9 ,
, 983,5 1016,5 .
2, ) .
.
23.1. X . 10, 16. ,
X , (5, 15).
. P(5 < X < 15) 0,7888.
23.2. X .
25. , X
4.
. P(|X a| < 4) 0,5762.
23.3. X , a = 5, = 4.
(, ), 0,9973 X
, a .
. (7, 17).
24.
24.1 ( ).
X (, P). , > 0,
P(X > ) 6
. .

Toc

JJ

II

M(X)
.

24:

147

. , , , X() > ,
X() < . ,
hX > i + hX < i = ,
. ,
IhX>i + IhX<i = I = 1.


X = X 1 = X IhX>i + IhX<i = X IhX>i + X IhX<i > X IhX>i > IhX>i .
:


M(X) > M IhX>i > M IhX>i = P(X > ),
.
24.1 ( ).
X
(, P). , > 0:
1

 M(|X| )
P |X| > 6
;


 M(X2 )
P |X| > = P X2 > 2 6
;
2

. .

 D(|X| )
P |X M(X)| > 6
.
2
Toc

JJ

II

24:

148

24.2 ( ). X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn ,
. . . ( , c , ,
i, D[Xi ] 6 c). , > 0,



X1 + . . . + Xn M(X1 ) + . . . + M(Xn )
> 0 n .

P

n
n
. n
1
n = (X1 + . . . + Xn ), n = 1, 2, . . . .
n

1
M(n ) = (M(X1 ) + . . . + M(Xn )).
n




X1 + . . . + Xn M(X1 ) + . . . + M(Xn )
> = P (|n M(n )| > )
P


n
n
D(X1 ) + . . . + D(Xn )
nc
1 c
D(n )
=
6 2 2 = 2 0 n ,
2
2
2

n
n
n
.
6

24.2. , , M(X1 ) =
M(X2 ) = . . . = a. , > 0,



X1 + . . . + Xn

P
a > 0 n .
n
. .

Toc

JJ

II

24:

149

.
24.3 ( ). A n p. , > 0,



n

P
p < 1 n .
n
. M(n ) = np D(n ) =
npq, :



n

P
p > = P (|n np| > n) = P (|n M(n )| > n) =
n
D(n )
npq
1 pq
6 2 2 = 2 2 = 2 0 n .
n
n
n




, nn p < , nn p >
, 1 n , .
, . ,
, , ,
n
n A n ,
, p A .
, :



1 pq
n

P
p > 6 2 ,
n
n
. .

Toc

JJ

II

24:

150




1 pq
n

P
p < > 1 2 .
n
n
,
.
24.1. . 50 ,
0,2 . ,
49,5 50,5 .

. X . M(X) =
50, D(X) = 2 = (0, 2)2 = 0, 04. h49, 5 6 X 6
50, 5i. :
49, 5 6 X 6 50, 5 0, 5 6 X 50 6 0, 5 |X 50| 6 0, 5.
3 . ( D(X) = 0, 04, = 0, 5)
P(|X 50| > 0, 5) 6

0, 04
,
0, 25

0, 04
= 0, 84.
0, 25
24.2. 350 . ,

0,2.
P(|X 50| 6 0, 5) > 1

. .

Toc

JJ

II

151

. , ( !). , ,
35
3,5 12
. Xi (i = 1, . . . , 350) , i-
. 1) , 2) 3) .
.
n = 50, D(X) = 35
12 , a = 3, 5, = 0, 2, :


!
350
1 X

35


P
Xi 3, 5 6 0, 2 > 1
0, 792.
350

12 350 0, 04
i=1

24.3. 320 . ,
0,03.
. p = 61 , q = 56 , = 0, 03,
:



1 5
n 1

1


P
< 0, 03 > 1
6 6 2 0, 518.
n
6
320 (0, 03)
25.
,
. .
, .

. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

25:

152

,
( ) ,
, . ,
, ,
, . .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

153

2.
26.
.
, .

)
)
.
.
, 1 6 1/6.
\ , , , 1000
"
300 . 1/6, ,
. ,
. , ,
0,3.
: , , .
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

26:

154

.
, , , . . ,
,
.
, , , ,
. . . ,
(, ) . , , , , ,
.
, ,
, X; , X,
, ,
X, .
, , . : ,
, . . , .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

155

.
( ) . , ,
,
. , ,
, ,
. , .
, , , .
; . , , , ;
. ,

; , , . ,
, .
27.
-
, , .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

27:

156

, , :
x1 , x2 , . . . , x n
( ). . , , - . ,
. .
, .
, ;
, .
.
27.1.
. : xi
1 , 2 , . . . , m ,
1 < 2 < . . . < m .
:
1
2
...
m
k1
k2
...
km
n1 = k1 /n n2 = k2 /n . . . nm = km /n
. .

Toc

JJ

II

27:

157

n , ki , i . ki , a ni = ki /n .
(. 3).

. 3:
27.1. ,

, .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

27:

158

27.1. , . 56 .
( )
:
3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 5, 3, 5, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 5, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 5, 3,
4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 3, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4, 2, 3, 5, 4, 3, 5, 3, 5.
.
, , ,
.
:
2, 3, 4, 5.
, .
, .
2, 3, 4, 5 . , , ( )
. ( : , .)
.
:
2:
3:
4:
5:

||| 3 ,
|||||||||||||||||||||||| 24 ,
|||||||||||||| 14 ,
||||||||||||||| 15 .

. .

Toc

JJ

II

27:

159

:
2
3
4
5
3
24
14
15
3/56 24/56 14/56 15/56
( , n = 56.)
, , (. 4).

. 4: ,

. .

Toc

JJ

II

27:

160

27.2.
,
. , ,

1
2
...
m
1
1
...
1
1/n 1/n . . . 1/n
, . .
, , .
, ,
.
:
[1 , 2 ]
(2 , 3 ]
. . . (m , m+1 ]
k1
k2
...
km
n1 = k1 /n n2 = k2 /n . . . nm = km /n

n ,
m ,
ki , i- (i- ),
ni = ki /n i- (i-
).
. .

JJ
II
J
I
Toc

27:

161

, .
, , i, i-
(i ; i+1 ], ni (i = 1, . . . , m) . . 5.

. 5:
m . m 5 15.
, (i ; i+1 ] ,
;
ki .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

27:

162

27.2. , , 25 , . . ( ):
75, 145, 150, 180, 125, 150, 150, 165, 95, 135, 130, 70, 130, 105, 135, 135, 100, 160, 60, 85,
120, 60, 145, 150, 135.
.
60
180. , [60; 180].
, , m = 6 .
, ( , 1):
[60; 80] :
(80; 100] :
(100; 120) :
(120; 140] :
(140; 160] :
(160; 180] :

|||| 4 ,
||| 3 ,
|| 2 ,
||||||| 7 ,
||||||| 7 ,
|| 2 .

:
[60; 80]
(80; 100] (100; 120] (120; 140]
4
3
2
7
4
3
2
7
=
0,
16
=
0,
12
=
0,
08
=
0, 28
25
25
25
25
, , (. 6).
. .

Toc

JJ

II

(140; 160]
7
7
=
0, 28
25

(160; 180]
2
2
=
0, 08
25

163

. 6: 27.2
28.
X. , ,
, . ( -
), , . , ,
, , a . , ,
. . .

Toc

JJ

II

28:

164


.
28.1. ,
, , X . (
). : x1 , x2 , . . . , xn X, n
, .
e
, , , x1 , x2 , . . . , xn :
e = (x
e 1 , x2 , . . . , xn ).

e (

n X).
X ( x1 , x2 , . . . , xn )
n.
e .

e , 1. , ,
, , . .
e = .
M()
, , . .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

28:

165

2. , n
e , . .

e 0 n .
D()
, , .
,
e 1 , x2 , . . . , xn )
, (x
. , , .
28.2.

a = M(X).
, . . X X:
n
1X
X=
xi .
n
i=1

X,
1X
Xi .
n
n

X=

i=1

Xi X, i-
( xi ).
. .

Toc

JJ

II

28:

166

X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn (
X),
1X
1
M(Xi ) = nM(X) = a.
n
n
n

M(X) =

(8)

i=1

, X .
n
1 X
1
D
(9)
D(Xi ) = 2 nD = .
D(X) = 2
n
n
n
i=1

D X.
X.
28.3.
D (X a)2 , D
1X
(Xi X)2
n
n

D=

i=1

X; .
, D . ,
, , D D. ,

. .

Toc

JJ

II

28:

167

, , D D, :
n1
M(D) =
D.
n
,
n
1 X
D=
(Xi X)2 .
n1
n1
n

D=

i=1

,
M(D) =

n
M(D) = D.
n1

D , .
n
D D n1
, 1 n ,
n , .
D

D = X2 (X)2
(10)

D(X) = M(X2 ) M2 (X).
( (10)
X2 X.)

. .

Toc

JJ

II

28:

168

28.1. :

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

1
3
7 15 21 30 12 8
3
( )
X .
.
n = 1 + 3 + 7 + 15 + 21 + 30 + 12 + 8 + 3 = 100.
:
X=

X2 =

1
(12 1 + 13 3 + 14 7 + 15 15 + 16 21 + 17 30+
100
1648
+18 12 + 19 8 + 20 3) =
= 16, 48,
100

1
(122 1 + 132 3 + 142 7 + 152 15 + 162 21 + 172 30+
100
20208
+182 12 + 192 8 + 202 3) =
= 272, 08,
100
D = 272, 08 (16, 48)2 = 0, 4896,
100
D=
0, 4896 = 0, 4945 . . . .
99

, : X = 16, 48, D = 0, 4896, D = 0, 4945 . . ..

. .

Toc

JJ

II

169

29.
29.1.

e . ,
.
, . ,
e

e
. ,

e1 ,
e2 )
(
, , . .

(11)

e1 (x1 , . . . , xn ) < <


e2 (x1 , . . . , xn )

.
e1
e2 ,
,
( ) ; (11)
, .
, 0,95 0,99, (11)
; ,
e1 ,
e2 ),
(x1 , . . . , xn ) X (
,
.
, e1 ,
e2 ) ( (
. .

Toc

JJ

II

29:

170

).
29.2.

.
, X a
( ) ( ). a
,
.
, . , , a.
, ,
, ,
. .
.
, , . ,
X = a +
. ,

M(X) = a.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

29:

171


(, , ) .
.
n ,
, . . (a1 , a2 ),
(, , ) a.
a :
1) ;
2) .
.
29.3. a

Pn
. ,
i=1 Xi , 1
a n
,
( !). , X
a n (. (8) (9) ).

U=

Xa

,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

29:

172

0 1. , t ,

P(t < U < t ) = .


(12)
, t < U < t (t ) (t ), . .
2(t ) ( (x) ). , t
2(t ) = , (t ) =
2 .
.
, , t ,

t < U < t
(13)
(?).
t < U < t t <

Xa

< t

t < X a < t
n
n

X t < a < X + t
n
n

X t < a < X + t .
n
n
, (13)

X t < a < X + t
n
n

(14)

. , (14) . , ,
. .

Toc

JJ

II

29:

173

(14) , a



I = X t , X + t
.
n
n
, I
a, .
29.1. n (x1 , . . . , xn ) X a
I , a, :
1)
x1 + . . . + xn
X=
n
;
2) t ,
(t ) =
2;
2)



X t , X + t
.
n
n
, .
, 2t n (
), , , ;
X.
. .

Toc

JJ

II

29:

174

,
X, (x1 , . . . , xn ). .
, 1000 , 1000. 1000.
,
, ,
.
29.1. , , = 5 . n = 30 .
X = 101 .
= 0, 95.
. = 0, 95, ,
2 = 0, 475.
0,475 .
0,475. 1,96.
, t = 1, 96. ,


5
5
101 1, 96 , 101 + 1, 96
,
30
30
(99,21, 102,79).
29.1. , , = 3 . 40 .
. .

Toc

JJ

II

29:

175

X = 49 .

= 0, 99.

. .

Toc

JJ

II

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