GlobalFoodandNutritionScenarios

FinalReport
MillenniumInstitute
Washington,DC,March15th,2013

1.Background
Theworldpopulationwasestimated6.07billionfor2000anditisprojectedtogrowtoaround
9billionby2050(UN,2010).Suchpopulationgrowthimposesprofoundchallengesinmeeting
futurefoodrequirements.AccordingtoFAOprojections,a70%increaseinfoodconsumptionis
expected,drivenbytheabovementionedlargeincreaseinworldpopulation,butalsobya
relevantincreaseinPCkcalconsumption.Globally,dietsarealsochangingrapidly,withaclear
tendencytowardsanincreasingconsumptionofmeat.For2050,FAOhasestimatedmeat
consumptiontobearound4.65billionton.Morespecifically,itisprojectedthatby2050,2.3
timesmorepoultrymeatandbetween1.4and1.8timesmoreofthemeatofotherlivestock
productswillbeconsumedasin2010(FAO,2009).Thisincreaseinmeatconsumptioncanbe
attributedtoassumedincreasesinincomeandrelatestotheincreaseinaveragecalorieintake.
Theworldsaveragedailycalorieavailabilityisprojectedtorisefrom2789kcalperpersonper
dayin2000to3130kcalperpersonin2050,a12percentincrease.Thecurrentleveloffood
wasteisaround30%to50%asestimatedbyFAOandtheInstitutionofMechanicalEngineers
(IME).
ThisreportoutlinesaseriesofscenariosthatarethensimulatedwiththeThreshold21(T21)
modelandanalyzedinordertoaddresstwofundamentalquestionsregardinggloballongterm
(2050)foodrequirements:
(1) Howmuchwouldagricultureproductionneedtoincreasetomeetfoodrequirements,
assumingageneralshifttowardsmoresustainablediets?
(2) Howmuchwouldagricultureproductionneedtoincreasetomeetfoodrequirements,
assumingareductioninfoodlossandwaste?
Section2providesaqualitativedescriptionofthescenarios;section3identifieskeyindicators
forscenarioassessment;insection4resultsfromT21BusinessasUsualscenarioarecompared
withbaselineprojectionsfromFAOto2050;insection5scenariosarecharacterized
quantitatively;insection6simulationresultsarereportedanddiscussed;andinsection7
conclusionsaredrawn.

2.Qualitativescenariodescription
Table1providesaqualitativeoverviewofhowsuchtwofundamentalquestionswillbe
addressedbycrossingassumptionsregardingthelevelofsustainabilityofdietsandtheamount
offoodlossandwaste.

TypeofDiet
Meatrichdiet

Lowanimalfooddiet

HighproportionofFood
LossandWaste

Scenario1

Scenario3

LowproportionofFood
LossandWaste

Scenario2

Scenario4

ProportionofFood
LossandWaste

Table1:qualitativescenariomatrix
Scenario1:BusinessAsUsual
TheBusinessAsUsual(BAU)scenarioprovidesendogenouslongtermprojectionsformajor
social,economicandenvironmentaldevelopmentindicators,withaspecialemphasison
agriculturerelatedindicators.TheBAUisbasedontheassumptionthatnomajorpolicyshiftor
shocksonmineralresourcessupplywilltakeplace,andthatfoodconsumptionpatternswill
continuetoevolvealongthecurrentpath.
TheBAUscenarioischaracterizedbydietsthatarerichinmeatandotheranimalproductsas
wellashighproportionoffoodlossandwasteatthesupplyanddemandside.Thesedietshave
alreadybeenlabeledunsustainableintheliteraturebecausetheyfurtherintensifytheuseof
naturalresourcesandsubsequentlyexacerbateenvironmentaldegradation.Thisscenarioalso
assumesahighproportionoffoodlossandwasteattheprocessing,distribution,and
householdslevel.
TheBAUscenarioinvestigatestheimpactofsuchunsustainabledietsbyfollowingthetrendin
meatconsumptionasprojectedbyFAO(2009,2011a,b)andprovidesabenchmarkagainst
whichresultsfromthescenarioscanbecompared.


Scenario2
ThisscenarioinvestigatestheimpactofunsustainabledietsbyfollowingtheFAOprojectionson
meatconsumption.ComparedtoScenario1,thisscenarioassumeslowerlevelsoffoodlossand
wasteattheprocessing,distribution,andhouseholdslevel.Thepurposeofthisscenarioisto
gainfurtherinsightintotheimpactoffoodwastereductionatthesupplyanddemandside,
whilefoodconsumptionpatternswillcontinuetoevolvealongthecurrentpath.Thiswould
implyadecreaseintheamountofproductionneededtosatisfyfooddemand.Whiletotalfood
productiondecreasesandfoodconsumptionpatternscontinuetoevolvealongthecurrent
path,itisassumedthatconsumerswillwastelessfoodandthereforebuylessfood.
Scenario3
Thisscenarioinvestigatestheimpactofadoptingmoresustainabledietsonfoodproduction
andconsumptionagainstthebackdropofahighproportionoffoodlossandwasteatthe
processing,distribution,andhouseholdslevel.Thescenarioissupposedtoprovidefurther
insightintotheimpactofreducingmeatconsumptioninhighincomecountriesonfood
productionwhilesustainingalowlevelofmeatconsumptioninlowincomecountries.Of
potentialinterestistoanalyzeareductioninmeatconsumption,whilekeepingthenutritional
contentoftheresultingdietatsatisfactorylevelsinhighincomecountriesandallowingforonly
aslowincreaseinthecontentofmeatasincomerisesintodayslowincomecountrieswithout
compromisingsufficientnutritionalcontent.
Scenario4
Thisscenarioincludestheidealprojectionsforsustainablefoodproductionandconsumption.
Similartoscenario3,thisscenarioanalyzestheimpactofsustainabledietsonfoodproduction.
Howeverthisanalysiswillbedoneagainstthebackdropofalowproportionoffoodlossand
wasteattheprocessing,distribution,andhouseholdslevel.Theanalysisservesasimilar
purposeasoutlinedinscenario3butitcombinesareductioninmeatconsumptionandfood
lossandwasteatthedemandandsupplyside.Thisscenariocanbeseenasanidealscenario
forsustainabilitybecauseitconsidersachangeinmeatconsumptionnecessarytokeepthe
nutritionalcontentoftheresultingdietatsatisfactorylevelsinhighincomeandlowincome
countries.Inaddition,thisscenarioconsidersconsumptionwasteisreducedgraduallyinhigh
incomecountriesandprocessinganddistributionlossesdecreaseindevelopingcountries
(whereconsumptionwasteisalsokeptbelowthetargetwastelevelfordevelopedcountries).

3.Indicators&drivingmechanisms
Resultsofthedifferentscenarioswillbeanalyzedandassessedbasedonasetofselected
indicators.Suchindicatorshavebeenselectedbasedontheirrelevancewithrespecttothekey


questionsbeingaddressed.Table2providesthelistofselectedindicators,abriefdescriptionof
eachindicator,anditsmajordrivingforceswithinT21.
Indicator
Totalpopulation
Totalharvestedarea
Totalcropsproduction
intons

Animalfoodproduction
intons

Totalfoodwasteand
loss

Caloriesperpersonper
day
Totaldailypccalories
animalfood
Totaldailypccalories
vegetalfood
Proportionof
population
undernourished

Description
Thesumofglobalpopulation
(disaggregatedinthemodelinto81
agecohortsandbygender)
Thesumofharvestedareaforall
differenttypesofcrops.
Thesumofallcropsproduction
(disaggregatedinthemodelinto11
typesofcrop),inphysicalquantity
(tons).
Thesumofallanimalproduction
(disaggregatedinthemodelinto4
typesofproducts),inphysical
quantity(tons).
Thesumofallfoodprocess,
transportation,distributionand
householdwasteandloss.

Drivingforces
Totalfertilityrate,life
expectancyatbirth.
Demographicpressure,available
landforagriculture.
Capital,labor,soilnutrients,
wateravailability,health,
education,researchand
development,energyavailability.
Availabilityofpasturearea,
availabilityofanimalfeed
products.

Foodproductionintons,
process,transportationand
distributionefficiency,
householdsfoodavailability
Theamountofcaloriesconsumedper Animalfoodconsumption,
person,perday.
vegetalfoodconsumptionand
totalpopulation
Theamountofcaloriesfromanimal
Animalfoodconsumptionand
foodconsumedperperson,perday.
totalpopulation
Theamountofcaloriesfromvegetal
Vegetalfoodconsumptionand
foodconsumedperperson,perday.
totalpopulation
Includesfoodconsumptionclasses
Foodproductionintonsand
belowminimumenergyrequirements, fooddistributionbyclass.
asashareoftotalpopulation

Table2:Indicatorsselectedforscenarioanalysis

4.ComparisonofT21baserunwithFAOprojectionto2050
FortheBAUscenariotobeareliablebenchmarkagainstwhichresultsfromthescenarioscan
becompared,itisimportantthattheT21baserunisinlinewithFAOprojectionto2050.The
ComparisonTablebelowpresentstheresultsfortheabovementionedindicators.
TheComparisonTableindicatesthatFAOsprojectionandT21projectionfor2050aresimilar
onmostindicators,includingtotalpopulation,totalharvestedarea,PCcaloriedailyintake,and
thebreakdownofcalorieintakebetweenvegetalandanimalfood.Similarly,theproportionof

populationundernourishedisalsoverysimilarforthetwoscenarios.Suchindicatorsarethe
mostfundamentalonesthatareusedtodevelopfurtherscenariosandassesstheirresults.

Table3showsadiscrepancybetweentheT21baserunandFAOprojectionforsomeindicators,
suchasAnimalfoodproductionintonsindicator.FAOprojectsanincreaseinglobalmeat
productionfrom229milliontonsin1999/2001to465milliontonsin2050(FAO,2006).The
differencebetweentheT21baserunandFAOprojectioncanbeattributedtodifferent
assumptionsregardingthemixofmeatsconsidered.Inaddition,largeregionalvariationslinked
tothestageofdevelopmentofindividualcountries,especiallydevelopingcountries(FAO,
2011a),canalsointroducedifferencesintheprojections.
Table3lacksavaluefromFAOfor2050butthevalueoftheT21baserunisinlinewithcurrent
FAOprojectionforlossandwaste.AccordingtoFAO(2009),roughlyonethirdoffoodproduced
forhumanconsumptionislostorwastedgloballywhichequalsto1.3billiontonsperyear.This
amountisabout15.5%oftotalfoodproduction.FromtheT21baserun,thisshareincrease
slightlyto16.5%in2050asaresultofincreasingPCwasteathouseholdslevel.
Indicator
Totalpopulation1
Totalharvestedarea
Totalcropsproductionintons
Animalfoodproductionintons(meat)
Totalfoodwasteandlosses(Tons)
Caloriesperpersonperday
Totaldailypccaloriesanimalfood(kcal/day/person)2
Totaldailypccaloriesvegetalfood(kcal/day/person)
Proportionofpopulationundernourished

T21Base
Run
9.31E+09
1.31E+09
11.2E+09
573E+06
2.1+09
3130
621
2509
0.0368

FAOprojection
9.31E+09
NA
10.5E+09
465E+06
NA
3130
620
2500
0.0311

Table3:comparisonofT21simulationandFAOprojectionby2050,selectedindicators

5.QuantitativespecificationoftheScenarios
ForthesakeofsimulationbywayoftheT21model,thescenariosqualitativelydescribedinthe
previoussectionsaretobequantitativelycharacterized.Suchprocessimpliesassigningspecific
valuestoselectedindicatorsthatarerepresentativeofthequalitativescenariodescription
providedabove.Table4providesanoverviewoftentativevaluesforquantitative

1
AlsoinlinewiththeUnitedNationsPopulationDivisionsprojections
2
Asnationsbecomemoreaffluentinthecomingdecadesthroughdevelopment,percapita
calorificintakefrommeatconsumptionissettorise40%bymidcentury(IME,2013)

characterizationofthescenarios.Thefollowingparagraphsprovidefurtherinsightabouthow
suchquantificationhasbeendetermined,anditsinterpretation.

TypeofDiet
Meatrichdiet

Lowanimalfooddiet

HighproportionofFood
LossandWaste

Scenario1:34%offoodwasteand
foodlossasshareoftotalfood
production
620dailypccaloriesanimalfood

Scenario3:34%foodwasteand
foodlossasshareoftotal
production
500dailypccaloriesanimalfood

LowproportionofFood
LossandWaste

Scenario2:30%offoodwasteand
lossesasshareoftotalproduction
620dailypccaloriesanimalfood

Scenario4:30%foodwasteand
lossesasshareoftotal
production
500dailypccaloriesanimalfood

ProportionofFood
LossandWaste

Table4:quantitativecharacterizationofthescenarios
Scenario1:BusinessAsUsual
Asillustratedabove,ourbusinessasusualscenarioreplicatesquitecloselyFAOsprojectionsfor
2050.Dailypccaloriesfromanimalfoodareexpectedtoincreasebyapproximately24%with
respecttotodaysvalues,toreachonaverageabout620Kcal/person/dayin2050.Inaddition,
theBAUscenarioconsidersanincreaseintheproportionoffoodproductionbeinglostand
wastedfromthecurrent32%toapproximately34%by2050.
Scenario2
Inthisscenario,weassumetotaldailypccaloriesanimalfoodandtotaldailypccaloriesvegetal
foodtoincreasebythesameratesasdescribedintheBAUscenario.Inaddition,thisscenario
considersadecreaseintheproportionoffoodproductionbeinglostandwastedfromthe
current32%toapproximately30%by2050.Thisisbasedontheassumptionofaglobal
convergenceoffoodlossandwastelevelstowardsalevelofabout200Kgpercapitaperyear.
ThisallowsforsomeslightincreaseinthePCfoodwasteandlossinabsolutelevelsinlow
incomecountries,sinceinsuchcountriesthetotalamountoffoodproductionand
consumptionisexpectedtoincreasesubstantially.Ontheotherhand,foodwasteandlossis
settodecreasegraduallyinmidincomecountries,andmoredrasticallyinhighincome
countries,asillustratedintable5.Currently,inlowincomecountrieshouseholdswasteisa
relativelysmallcomponentoftotalfoodwasteandloss(about10%),whileindustrialized
countrieshouseholdswasterepresentsamorerelevantcomponentoftotalfoodwasteandloss
(aboutonethird).Thisweenvisionthatinhighincomecountriesmajorgainswillbeobtained
fromreductionofhouseholdswaste.


Region

Projected food waste and loss for 2050, Low waste and loss scenario
Current (2009) PC Projected (2050)
Relative
Population
food waste & loss PC food waste &
change
(2050)
(kg/person/year)
loss
compared to
(kg/person/year)
BAU 2009

World (TOTAL)
Africa
South America
Central America
Caribbean
Asia
Oceania
Europe
North America

180
225
225
225
160
295
280
295

200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200

11%
-11%
-11%
-11%
25%
-32%
-29%
-32%

9.31E+06
2.19E+06
4.88E+05
2.16E+05
4.73E+04
5.14E+06
5.52E+04
7.19E+05
4.47E+05

Total food
waste &
loss
(ton/yr)
1.86E+09
4.38E+08
9.76E+07
4.31E+07
9.46E+06
1.03E+09
1.10E+07
1.44E+08
8.94E+07

Table5:LowFoodWasteandLossScenarios
Scenario3
Thisscenariotakesintoaccountaglobalconvergencetowardsalowanimalfooddiet.As
presentedinTable6thisimplieskeeping,onaworldaverage,thedailypccaloriesfromanimal
foodconstantatabouttodayslevel.Itisimportanttonotethatitispossibletoachievesuch
goalwhileallowinganincreaseindailypccaloriesfromanimalfoodinlowincomecountriesin
Africa,theCaribbeanandAsia.Suchincreasewouldbecompensatedbyareductionindailypc
caloriesfromanimalfoodinhighincomecountriesinEurope,NorthAmericaandOceaniaby
30%to35%.Inaddition,thisscenarioconsidersanincreaseintheproportionoffood
productionbeinglostandwastedinlinewiththeBAUscenario.

Projected PC calorie intake from animal food for 2050, Low animal food diet scenario

Region

World
Africa
SouthAmerica
CentralAmerica
Caribbean
Asia
Oceania
Europe
NorthAmerica

Current(2009)
animalfood
supply
(kcal/person/day)

Projected(2050)
animalfood
supply
(kcal/person/day)

501
207
655
575
379
429
946
925
1001

414
589.5
546.25
492.7
493.35
662.2
647.5
650.65

Relative
change
(compared
toBAU2009)

100%
10%
5%
30%
15%
30%
30%
35%

Shareof
Weightedanimal
total
foodsupply
population (kcal/person/day)
(2050)

0.24
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.55
0.01
0.08
0.05

501.40
97.50
30.92
12.65
2.50
272.61
3.93
50.04
31.24

Table6:LowAnimalFoodDietScenarios
Scenario4
Thisscenarioassumesadecreaseintheproportionoffoodproductionbeinglostandwasted
fromthecurrent32%toapproximately30%by2050,jointlywithalowanimalfooddietas
indicatedinscenario2.

6.

Scenarioresults

ThisSectionpresentsanoverviewoftheresultsofthefollowingscenariosfortheperiod1970
2050:BusinessAsUsual(BAU)(scenario1,greylineinthegraphs),LowFoodLossandWaste
(scenario2,bluelineinthegraphs),LowAnimalFoodDiet(scenario3,greenlineinthegraphs),
andLowFoodLossandWaste&LowAnimalFoodDiet(scenario4,redlineinthegraphs).The
simulationresultsarepresentedforthekeyindicatorsitemizedinTable3inordertocompare
thefourscenarios.ThesimulationresultsaresummarizedinTable7.
6.1Totalpopulation
AsillustratedinFigure1,allscenariosprojectaglobalpopulationof9.3billionby2050,whichis
inlinewithUNPopulationDivisionprojection.Therearenosubstantialdifferencesamongthe
fourscenarioswithrespecttothisindicator,sincefertilityandmortalityarenotsubstantially
affected,onglobalaverage,bythepoliciesintroduced.ThusthefourlinesinFigure1are
overlapping.

Figure1:Population.Source:UNPOPdataandT21projections
6.2Totalharvestedarea
IntheBAUscenario,totalharvestedareaisprojectedtoremainstablearoundtodayslevel,at
about1.31billionhectares(Figure2).Thisisaconservativeassumption,basedonthe
observationthatarablelandandpermanentcropsareashavebeengrowingatveryslowrates
overthelast20years(FAOSTAT),andontheconsiderationthatlandconversiontoagriculture
willbeincreasinglyregulatedinthefuture.Itispossiblethataslowerthanexpectedgrowthin
yieldwillincreasedemandforagricultureland,leadingtoagradualincreaseinharvestedarea.
Nevertheless,thiswouldnotsubstantiallyaffecttherelativedifferenceobservedintheresults
forthefourscenarios.
IntheLowFoodLossandWastescenario,totalharvestedareasdecreasesto1.178Billion
hectaresby2050.Asaresultoftheimportantsavingobtainedfromthereductionin
processing,transportation,distributionlossesaswellasfromthereductioninhouseholds
waste,alargerproportionoftheagricultureproductionreachestheconsumers.Thisimplies
thatasmalleramountofagricultureproductionisneededtoprovideconsumerswiththesame
amountoffood.Consequently,productionisreduced,andthusasmallerareaneedstobe
cultivatedinordertoproduceanddeliverthesameamountoftotalPCdailyenergyintakeasin
theBAU.


IntheLowAnimalFoodscenario,totalharvestedareadecreasesto1.185Billionhectaresby
2050.Suchimportantreductioniscausedbythedecreaseinfoodrequirements,intermsof
dailypercapitacaloriesfromanimalfood(from620inBAUto500intheLowAnimalFood
scenario).Onaverage,thegrainmeatconversionratiosvaryfrom2:1forpoultryto7:1forbeef
(FAO,2006),implyingthattwoKgofcerealsareneededtoproduceoneKgofpoultry,andupto
7toproduceonekilogramofbeef.Althoughmeatcaloriecontentcanvarysubstantially
dependingonthetypeofmeat,onaveragemeatdoesnothavehighercaloriecontentthan
cereals.Therefore,intheLowAnimalFoodscenario,aslesscerealcropsareusedtofeed
animalsandmoreareuseddirectlyforhumannutrition,weobservealargesavingintermsof
energy.Asaconsequence,lessareaneedstobecultivatedtoobtainthesameamountoftotal
PCdailyenergyintakeasintheBAU.
Totalharvestedareaisexpectedtofurtherdecreaseinthecombinedscenario4.Thecombined
impactsresultinafurtherdecreaseinthetotalharvestedareato1.065billionhectares.Such
reductioninharvestedarea(about19%lessthanintheBAU)impliesalowerpressureon
naturalresources,especiallyonconversionfromothertypesofland,soilnutrients,andenergy.

Fig
ure2:Totalharvestedarea.Source:FAOdataandT21projections
6.3Totalcropproductionintons
AsillustratedinFigure3,theBAUscenarioprojectsa45%increaseintotalcropproductionfor
2050withregardtothecurrentfigureof7.68billiontons.Suchincreaseismainlydrivenby


increasingyields,andallowsforanimportantglobalincreaseinPCcalorieintakefromvegetal
food.Fortheperiod20132050,boththeLowFoodLoss&WasteandLowAnimalFood
scenariosindicateasmallerincreaseincropproduction(about35.5%).Intheformercase,the
loweramountoffoodlossandwasteallowstomeetthesamelevelofPCcalorieintakeasin
theBAUwithasmallerproduction.Inthelattercase,theadoptionoflowanimalfooddiets
impliesthataloweramountofcropproductionisusedforanimalfeed,andalargeramount
directlyforhumannutrition.Giventhelowenergyefficiencyofusingcropproductionfor
humanfeed,thenetamountofproductionnecessarytomeetthesamelevelofPCcalorie
intakeasintheBAUissmaller.Thecombinedscenarioprojectsa26%increaseintotalcrop
productionfor2050,asitcombinesthepositiveimpactsoflowerfoodlossandwasteaswellas
theadoptionofalowanimalfooddietoncropproduction.

Figure3:Totalcropproductionintons.Source:FAOdataandT21projections
6.4Animalfoodproductionintons
AsillustratedinFigure4,theBAUscenario(greyline)andtheLowFoodLoss&Wastescenario
(blueline)indicateacontinuousincreaseinglobalmeatproductionfrom229milliontonsin
1999/2001to465milliontonsin2050,aboutadoublingofcurrentproduction.Forthesame
period,theLowAnimalFoodscenarioandthecombinedscenario4indicateaslowergrowthin
meatproduction,eventuallyreachingby2050alevelabout90%lowerthaninBAU.Such


slowergrowthinglobalmeatproductionisduetotheglobalconvergencetowardsalowanimal
fooddietenvisionedinthesescenarios.Suchslowergrowthinmeatproduction(aswellasin
theproductionofotheranimalfoodproducts)resultsinastabilizationofdailypercapita
calorieintakefromanimalfoodataroundtodayslevel.

animal food production in tons

600 M

Ton/Year

450 M

300 M

150 M

0
1970 1978 1986 1994 2002 2010 2018 2026 2034 2042 2050
Time (Year)
animal
animal
animal
animal

food
food
food
food

production
production
production
production

in
in
in
in

tons[MEAT] :
tons[MEAT] :
tons[MEAT] :
tons[MEAT] :

LowLossWasteScenario
LowLossWasteAnimalScenario
LowAnimalScenario
BAUScenario

Figure4:Meatproduction.Source:FAOdataandT21projections
6.5Totalfoodwasteandlosses(Tons)
IntheBAUandLowAnimalscenarios,totalfoodwasteandlossesareprojectedtoreachalevel
ofabout2.1Billiontonsby2050(Figure5).Bycomparison,theLowFoodLoss&Waste
scenarioindicateatotalfoodwasteandlossof1.85Billiontons,asaconsequenceofmore
efficientprocessing,transportation,anddistribution,aswellasofmoreconsciousfooduseat
householdslevel.Weobserveaslowergrowthintheamountoffoodlossandwastealsointhe
LowAnimalFoodscenario(about2Billiontonsin2050):thisisaconsequenceoftheoverall
smalleramountofproductionnecessaryinthisscenariotoachievetheBAUslevelofPCcalorie
intake:evenatconstantefficiencylevel,lowerlevelsofproductionimplylowerlevelsofloss
andwaste,inabsoluteterms.Asaresultofthecombinationoftheassumptionsofscenario2
and3,inscenario4weobserveanevenslowergrowthinthetotalamountoffoodlossand
waste,whichreachesabout1.75Billiontonsby2050.

Figure5:Totalfoodwasteandloss.Source:FAOdataandT21projections
6.6Caloriesperpersonperday
AsillustratedinFigure6,allscenariosfollowtheFAOprojectionofatotalofcaloriesperperson
perdayof3130by2050.Whiletheactualcompositionofsuchcalorieintake,i.e.whether
caloriesareobtainedfromanimalfoodorvegetalfood,andtheefficiencyoftheprocessing,
transportationanddistributionaremodifiedinthefourscenariosanalyzed,thetotalpccalorie
intakeisheldconstanttoallowcomparisonontheotherdimensions.

Figure6:Caloriesperpersonperday:Source:FAOdataandT21projections
6.7Totaldailypccaloriesanimalfood(kcal/day/person)
IntheBAUandLowFoodLoss&Wastescenarios,dailypccaloriesfromanimalfoodare
expectedtoincreasebyapproximately24%withrespecttotodaysvalues,toreachonaverage
about620Kcal/person/dayin2050(Figure7).Bycomparison,intheLowAnimalFoodandthe
combinedscenario4,dailypercapitacaloriesfromanimalfoodareexpectedtoreachabout
500Kcal/person/dayby2050.Insuchscenarios,theloweraveragedailypercapitacalories
fromanimalfoodcanberealizedbycompensatinganincreaseindailypccaloriesfromanimal
foodinlowincomecountrieswithareductionindailypccaloriesfromanimalfoodinhigh
incomecountries.

Figure7:Totaldailypercapitacaloriesanimalfood.Source:FAOdataandT21projections
6.8Totaldailypccaloriesvegetalfoodkcal/day/person)
IntheBAUandLowFoodLoss&Wastescenarios,dailypccaloriesfromvegetalfoodare
projectedtoreachabout2509Kcal/person/dayby2050(Figure8).Bycomparison,intheLow
AnimalFoodandthecombinedscenario4,dailypercapitacaloriesfromanimalfoodare
projectedtoreachabout2630Kcal/person/dayby2050.Asdiscussedabove,insuchscenarios
thehigheraveragedailypercapitacaloriesfromvegetalfoodisthereflectionofthereduction
inthedailypccaloriesfromanimalfoodtoabout500Kcal/person/dayby2050.

Figure8:Totaldailypercapitacaloriesvegetalfood.Source:FAOdataandT21projections
6.9Proportionofpopulationundernourished
Inallscenarios,theaverageproportionofpopulationundernourisheddecreasesgraduallyfrom
thecurrent13.5%to3.6%by2050(Figure9).Thedifferenceintheproportionofpopulation
undernourishedinthefourscenariosisrelativelysmall,sinceeventuallyinallscenariosthe
projectionsforPCcaloriedailyintakereachalevelofabout3130.

Figure9:Proportionofpopulationundernourished.Source:WHOdataandT21projections
6.10Summarytable
Indicator

BAU

Scenario2

Scenario3

Scenario4

Totalpopulation
Totalharvestedarea(Ha)

9.31E+09
1.31E+09

9.31E+09
1.178E+09

9.31E+09
1.185E+09

9.31E+09
1.065E+09

Totalcropsproductionin
tons
Animalfoodproductionin
tons(meat)
Totalfoodwasteandlosses
(Tons)
Caloriesperpersonperday
Totaldailypccalories
animalfood
(kcal/day/person)
Totaldailypccalories
vegetalfoodkcal/day/
person)
Proportionofpopulation
undernourished

11.17E+09

10.43E+09

10.41E+09

9.70E+09

573E+06

579E+06

444E+06

442E+06

Table7:Summarytable

2.1E+09

1.85E+09

1.99E+09

1.75E+09

3130
621

3130
624

3131
501

3132
501

2630

2630

0.0365

0.0364

2509

2506

0.0368

0.0366

7.

Policyinterventions

7.1Sustainablediets

Inordertomeetthedietaryandnutritionalneedsofaworldthatbecomesmoreaffluent,more
urbanized,andwithagrowingpopulation,peoplesdietaryhabitswillhavetoundergoradical
transformations(Wirseniusetal.,2010).Atthesametime,suchtransformationrequires
consumerstobecomeawareofthelimitedavailabilityofplanetsnaturalresourcesandthat
currentdietaryhabitscannotbesustainedoverthelongterm(MEA,2005;IME,2013).The
followingparagraphspresentthreefundamentalareasforpolicyinterventionthatcanfacilitate
suchtransformationprocess.
Foodtaxesonunhealthydietaryhabits
Theadoptionofpriceleverageorfoodtaxesonunhealthydietaryhabitsinabalancedand
appropriatewaymayhelptodiscouragetheuseofjunkfoodandencouragepurchasesof
healthyfood(BCFN,2012a).Theuseofpriceleverageoncertainfoodsmaythuslikely
significantlyimpactbehaviors,ifinterventionsareputinplacetoencouragethechoiceof
healthieralternativesandmadethemactuallyaccessibletotheconsumer.
Educationprogramsonpromotionofhealthydietaryhabits
Asthehealthofhumanbeingscannotbeseparatedfromthehealthofecosystems,itnecessary
topromotetheadoptionofhealthylifestylesanddietsfavoringtheconsumptionoffoodsthat
havealowerimpactontheplanetsecosystem(Wirseniusetal.,2010;IME,2013).Tothatend,
thedisseminationofaccurateinformationanddietaryeducationneedstobesupportedin
ordertopromotetheadoptionofproperdietaryandlifeattitudes,sothatindividualsmay
achievegreaterawarenessoftheimportanceofdietarychoicesandmorecompleteknowledge
onthetopic(BCFN,2012b).Thismayhelppeoplechooseandimplementaproperdietarystyle.
Corporatesocialresponsibility
Businessesinthefoodsectorshouldbeabletoadaptfoodofferingstothegoodpractices
discussedaboveand,atthesametime,beabletocommunicatetheminaneffectiveway
(BCFN,2012b).Forthistohappen,companiesinthefoodsectorshouldcontinuetodevelop
newformsofconveniencefoodfeaturingahighnutritionallevelandproposefurther
innovationsregardingformatsizeinordertomeetthegrowingpersonalizationoffood
offerings(FAO,2011c).Thisparticularcaseincludessingleservingpackages,whicharetargeted
atsatisfyingtheneedsofpeoplelivingalone,aswellasspecificformatsforlargefamilies.
7.2Foodwasteandlossesprevention
Foodiswastedthroughoutthefloodsupplychain,frominitialagriculturalproduction,
postharvesthandlingandstorage,processing,distributiondowntofinalhousehold
consumption.AccordingtoFAO(2011),inmediumandhighincomecountriesfoodistoahigh

extentwasted,eventhoughitisstillsuitableforhumanconsumption.Bycomparison,inlow
incomecountriesfoodismostlylostduringtheproductiontoprocessingstagesofthefood
supplychain.Byintroducingadequatemeasures,foodwasteandlossesinthefoodsupply
chaincanbereducedtothetargetedpercapitafoodwasteandlossof200kgperpersonper
yearinbothlowandhighcomecountries.

Production
Ofteninindustrializedcountriesfoodgetslostwhenproductionexceedsdemand,asarguedby
FAO(2011b).Farmersintendtoproducelargerquantitiesthantheyagreedtodeliverinorder
toanticipateunpredictablebadweatherconditionsorpestattacks,evenwhenconditionsare
average.Inthecaseofsurplusproduction,somesurpluscropsaresoldtoprocessorsoras
animalfeed.Thisisconsideredlessprofitablegiventhelowerpricesinthesesectorscompared
tothosefromretailers.Moreefficiencycanresultfromimprovedcommunicationand
cooperationamongfarmerswhichcouldreducetheriskofoverproductionbyallowingsurplus
corpsfromonefarmtocompensateashortageonanother(Stuart,2009).
Indevelopingcountriesand,tosomeextent,developedcountries,foodmaybelostdueto
prematureharvesting.FAO(2011b)claimsthatpoorfarmersmayharvestcropstooearlydueto
fooddeficiencyorthedesperateneedforcashduringthesecondhalfoftheagricultural
season.Inthisway,thefoodincursalossinnutritionalandeconomicvalue,andmayget
wastedifitisnotsuitableforconsumption.Asaprecautionarymeasure,Stuart(2009)suggests
thatsmallfarmersneedtoorganizethemselvestobetterdiversifyandupscaletheirproduction
andmarketing.Smallresourcepoorfarmerscanbeorganizedingroupstoproduceavarietyof
significantquantitiesofcashcropsoranimals.Inthiswaytheycanreceivecreditfrom
agriculturalfinancialinstitutionsoradvancepaymentsfromclients.
Transportationanddistribution
FAO(2011b)considerspoorstoragefacilitiesandlackofinfrastructureasthemaincausefor
postharvestfoodlossesindevelopingcountries.Freshproductslikefruits,vegetables,meat
andfishstraightfromthefarmorafterbeingharvestedcanbelostinhotclimatesduetolack
ofinfrastructurefortransportation,storage,coolingandmarkets(Rolle,2006;Stuart,2009).To
increaseefficiencyinfoodtransportation,distribution,governmentsshouldinvest
infrastructureforroads,energyandmarkets.Subsequently,privatesectorinvestmentscan
improvestorageandcoldchainfacilitiesaswellastransportation.Inaddition,sellingfarm
cropsclosertoconsumerswithoutinterventionofstrictqualitystandardssetupby
supermarketsonweight,sizeandappearancewouldpossiblyreducetheamountofrejected
crops.Thiscouldbeachievedthrough,e.g.,farmersmarketsandfarmshops(Stuart,2009).

Enduse
Foodwasteathouseholdslevelisespeciallyrelevantinhighandmidincomecountries.
Targetededucationalprogramscanbeaprimarylevelofinterventioninordertohelp
householdstomakethebestuseoftheavailablefood,preparenutritiousmeals,andreduce
waste.FAOhasrecentlyengagedinanagreementwithBrazil'sServioSocialdaIndstria
(IndustrialSocialServices,SESI),toreplicateinothercountriesSESIssuccessfultargeted
educationalprogram(FAO,2012).
AccordingtoFAO(2011b),thesocalledhighappearancequalitystandardsfrom
supermarketsforfreshproductscouldleadtofoodwastereductionintheenduse.Thisisdue
tothefactthatsomeharvestisrejectedbysupermarketsatthefarmgateduetorigorous
qualitystandardsforweight,size,shapeandappearanceofcrops.Thiscauseslargeportionsof
cropsnevertoleavethefarms.Eventhoughsomerejectedcropsareusedasanimalfeed,the
qualitystandardsmightdrivefoodoriginallyaimedforhumanconsumptiontootheruses
(Stuart,2009).
Finally,consumersurveyscarriedoutbysupermarketsmaybeatooltoincreaseefficiencyin
theenduseoffood.AsStuart(2009)claims,supermarketsseemconvincedthatconsumerswill
notbuyfoodwhichhasthewrongweight,sizeorappearance.Surveysdohowevershowthat
consumersarewillingtobuyheterogeneousproduceaslongasthetasteisnotaffected.
Consumershavethepowertoinfluencethequalitystandards.Thiscouldbedoneby
questioningthemandofferingthemabroaderqualityrangeofproductsintheretailstores.

8.Conclusions
Theworldpopulationisestimatedtogrowtoaround9billionby2050(UN,2010)imposing
profoundchallengesinmeetingfuturefoodrequirements.Globally,dietsarealsochanging
rapidly,withacleartendencytowardsanincreasingconsumptionofmeat.Anotherelementof
complexityanduncertaintyregardingfutureprojectionsforfoodavailabilityistheleveloffood
lossandwaste(currentlyaround30%to50%asestimatedbyFAOandtheInstitutionof
MechanicalEngineers(IME)).Thepresentresearchaddressestwofundamentalissues:
(1) Howmuchwouldagricultureproductionneedtoincreasetomeetfoodrequirements,
assumingageneralshifttowardsmoresustainablediets?
(2) Howmuchwouldagricultureproductionneedtoincreasetomeetfoodrequirements,
assumingareductioninfoodlossandwaste?
Simulationresultsindicatethatsubstantialbenefitscanbederivedfromagradualshifttomore
sustainabledietsandfrommoreefficientfoodprocessing,transportation,distributionanduse.
Byshiftingtowardsmoresustainablediets(i.e.dietsbasedonaloweramountofcalorieintake

fromanimalfood)lesscropproductionisusedforanimalfeed,andmoredirectlyforhuman
nutrition.Sinceusingcropproductionforanimalfeedislittleenergyefficient,suchshiftimplies
thatlesseragricultureproductionisneededtoprovidethesameamountofPCcalorieintake.A
gradualconvergencetowardslowanimalfooddietscanbeobtainedatthegloballevelby
compensatingthenecessaryincreaseinanimalfoodconsumptioninlowincomecountries,
withacorrespondingreductioninanimalfoodconsumptioninhighincomecountries.

Similarly,byincreasingefficiencyinfoodprocessing,transportation,distributionanduse,food
lossandwastecanberelevantlydecreased.Suchimprovementinefficiencywouldallowfora
smalleroverallagricultureproductiontoeventuallyprovideconsumerswiththesameamount
offood.Improvementsinefficiencywouldfocusprimarilyonprocessing,transportation,and
distributioninlowincomecountries,wherewasteathouseholdslevelaccountsforonlyasmall
partoftotalfoodlossandwaste.Ontheotherhand,wasteathouseholdslevelaccountsfora
largeshareoftotalfoodlossandwasteinhighincomecountries,andthusimportantgainscan
beobtainedatsuchlevel.
Insummary,thecombinationofmoresustainabledietswithimprovementinefficiencyinfood
processing,transportation,distribution,anduse,wouldallowforaslowergrowthinagriculture
productionandforareductioninharvestedarea,whilestillmeetingthedietaryneedsofthe
growingglobalpopulation.Inparticular,undersuchconditionsthetotaldemandforharvested
areawouldbe20%smallerthanintheBusinessasUsualscenario,implyingasubstantially
lowerpressureonenvironmentalresources,suchasland,water,soilnutrients,andenergy.

9.

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