SASKATOON SHOWDOWN

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM MST - SEPTEMBER 16, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 802 Saskatoon Residents by Smart IVR on September 13, 2016. A mixture of landlines
and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 3.46%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based
on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

MOORE VAULTS TO THIRD, ATCHISON LEADS MAYORAL RACE

September 16, (Montral, QC) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds newcomer Kelley Moore making a
splash in the Saskatoon Mayoral race while Henry DayDay slips in the rankings. The Mainstreet/Postmedia
Poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.46%, 19 times out of 20.
Newcomer Kelley Moore has vaulted into third place - and is in striking distance of second said David
Valentin, executive vice-president of Mainstreet Research. The fundamentals of the campaign look very
dierent than the last time we polled. Don Atchisons support is unchanged but a slight dip for Charlie Clark
means Atchison now leads outside the margin of error.
Its important to remember that there is still a large pool of undecided voters. As we head into the nal
weeks of the mayoral campaign we expect there will be lots of movement in all directions.
Saskatoon residents are telling us most of them are planning to vote in the mayoral race -82% plan to cast
a ballot, but social desirability bias is likely playing a role in these particular results as few will want to admit
they dont plan to cast a ballot. Nevertheless, it does show a strong interest in this years civic election.
Second Choice preferences show that all candidates have room to grow, but for now, its Henry DayDay
and Kelley Moore who lead in second ballot preferences at 19% each. 10% of Saskatoon voters say they have
locked in their support and have no second choice.
Moving forward the top three mayoral candidates each have work to do: Don Atchison needs to hold onto
his current level of support, Charlie Clark needs to reverse his negative momentum and steal
anti-incumbent votes away from Kelley Moore and Henry DayDay, and Kelley Moore needs to solidify her
support and set up a two-way race with Mr. Atchison. So far her campaign launch and focus on city
nancials seem to be paying o, but with the city now planning a scal update before the election she will
need to nd new ways to keep the focus on her campaign nished Valentin.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Montral: David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, Mainstreet Research
Call: 514-913-5524 or E-mail: david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming

Saskatoon mayoral election?

11%

7%

9%

73%

Certain

Likely

Might

Unlikely

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Certain

68%

76%

71%

79%

73%

73%

Likely

11%

7%

11%

7%

9%

9%

Might

7%

7%

6%

10%

8%

6%

Unlikely

14%

11%

12%

4%

11%

11%

Sample

147

162

257

236

381

421

A4

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran?

3%

100

6% 23%

5% 18%

60

4% 26%

70

15%

80

2% 22%

90

50

24%

26%

30

31%

40

20

29%

37%

29%

10

July

September

Decided Only

Don Atchison

Charlie Clark
Someone Else

Henry DayDay
Undecided

Kelley Moore

A5

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran?

Saskatoon 29%
Male

28%

Female

30%

24%
26%

10

Don Atchison

9%

30

40

Charlie Clark
Someone Else

21%
14%

12%
20

17%

22%

25%

65+ 36%

21%

23%
16%

50-64 34%

23%

22%

36%

35-49 31%

22%

6% 14%

22%

18-34 19%

5% 18%

8%
50

60

20%

38%
70

Henry DayDay
Undecided

80

90

100

Kelley Moore

A6

And who would be your second choice for

mayor?

17%

21%

14%
10%

19%

Don Atchison

19%

Charlie Clark
No 2nd Choice

Henry DayDay
Undecided

Kelley Moore

A7

And who would be your second choice for

mayor?

Saskatoon 17%

14%

Male

17%

13%

Female

17%

15%

18-34 18%

16%

10

Don Atchison

12%

10%

18%

40

50

Charlie Clark
No 2nd Choice

19%
15%

11%

25%
11%

21%
23%

21%
15%

30

11%

19%

27%

16%

10%

19%

17%

20

19%

20%

15%

65+ 18%
0

18%

11%

35-49 21%
50-64 11%

19%

9%

27%
6% 26%

7% 31%
60

70

Henry DayDay
Undecided

80

90

100

Kelley Moore

A8

SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Saskatoon mayoral election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
If the election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, who would you vote for if the following candidates ran?
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Henry DayDay
Kelley Moore
Undecided
And who would be your second choice for mayor? [DECIDED VOTERS ONLY]
Don Atchinson
Charlie Clark
Henry DayDay
Kelly Moore
No Second Choice
Undecided

CALGARY GREENWAY

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary

Greenway by election.

Most Accurate Pollster of the

Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

MANITOBA

Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewans

general election, top results within MoE.

Most Active Pollster of Manitobas general

election, top results within MoE.

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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