You are on page 1of 2



Brian Fitzpatrick for Congress
Communication Concepts
Memorandum regarding PA-8 Survey
Sept. 13, 2016

Brian Fitzpatrick has cemented himself as the frontrunner in the race to represent
Pennsylvania’s Eighth Congressional District by opening up a double-digit lead against his
opponent, PA State Representative Steve Santarsiero, with under 60 days before election day.
With his lead, Fitzpatrick has also crossed the 50% threshold – an impressive vote total this
early in an open seat campaign.
Fitzpatrick leads Santarsiero among women, men and independents across the district.
Furthermore, he leads in every geographic region of the district: Lower Bucks, Central Bucks,
Upper Bucks, and Montgomery County.
Additionally, the top of the ticket does not appear to have an impact on the race in any way
since both major candidates have very significant negatives.
 Brian Fitzpatrick leads Steve Santarsiero by a margin of 12% - 50% to 38% with 12% of
likely voters undecided.
o Fitzpatrick’s 12% head-to-head lead and 50% total vote are significant as
candidates in an open seat race rarely receive 50% or more of the votes this
early in a campaign.
 Fav/Unfav
o While both candidates are largely unpopular, Hillary Clinton is the most
unfavorable candidate in the race at 57%. Fifty-four percent of PA-8 voters have
unfavorable impression of Donald Trump.
o Both candidates’ favorable ratings are also comparable, 37% have a favorable
view of Hillary Clinton while 38% have a favorable view of Donald Trump.
 Ballot Test
o If the Presidential election were held today, Hillary Clinton would receive 42%,
Donald Trump, 37%, Gary Johnson, 7% and Jill Stein, 3%. Eleven-percent of PA8 voters undecided.

On September 6-7, 2016, Communication Concepts conducted a public opinion survey
with 416 interviews of likely voters in PA Congressional District 8. The survey was a
brief tracking survey designed to determine the status of the campaign as the intense
post Labor Day phase begins.
Four hundred and sixteen likely voters were interviewed by live callers using both
landlines and cells. The party break down was 43% Republican, 42% Democrat, and
15% Independent/other parties. 47% of the interviews were with male voters, 53% with
females. The margin of error in this survey is + - 5% within the 95% confidence interval.