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4.50
Registrationnumbersforanaccountingseminaroverthepast10weeksareshownbelow:
Week
Registrations
10
22
21
25
27
35
29
33
37
41
37
a) Startingwithweek2andendingwithweek11,forecastregistrationsusingthenaive
forecastingmethod.
b) Startingwithweek3andendingwithweek11,forecastregistrationusingatwoweek
movingaverage.
c) Startingwithweek5andendingwithweek11,forecastregistrationsusingafourweek
movingaverage.
d) Plot the original data and the three forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast
smoothesthedatathemost?Whichforecastrespondstochangethebest?
4.51 Given thefollowingdata, useexponential smoothing( = 0.2)todevelop ademand forecast.
Assumetheforecastfortheinitialperiodis5.
Period
Demand
13
4.52Calculate(a)MADand(b)MSEforthefollowingforecastversusactualsalesfigures:
Forecast
100
110
120
130
Actual
95
108
123
130
4.53 SalesofindustrialvacuumcleanersatLarryArmstrongSupplyCo.overthepast13monthsare
shownbelow:
Month
Jan.
Feb.
March
April
May
June
July
Sales(inthousands)
11
14
16
10
15
17
11
Month
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Sales(inthousands)
14
17
12
14
16
11
a) Usingamovingaveragewith3periods,determinethedemandforvacuumcleanersfor
nextFebruary.
b) Usingaweightedmovingaveragewith3periods,determinethedemandforvacuum
cleanersforFebruary.Use3,2,and1fortheweightsofthemostrecent,secondmost
recent,andthirdmostrecentperiods,respectively.Forexample,ifyouwereforecasting
thedemandforFebruary,Novemberwouldhaveaweightof1,Decemberwouldhavea
weightof2,andJanuarywouldhaveaweightof3.
c) UsingMAD,determinewhichisthebetterforecast.
d) WhatotherfactorsmightArmstrongconsiderinforecastingsales?
4.54PassengermilesflownonNortheastAirlines,acommuterfirmservingtheBostonhub,areshownfor
thepast12weeks:
Week
ActualPassengerMiles
17
21
19
23
18
16
Week
10
11
12
ActualPassengerMiles
20
18
22
20
15
22
(inthousands)
(inthousands)
a) Assuminganinitialforecastforweek1of17,000miles,useexponentialsmoothingto
computemilesforweeks2through12.Use=.2.
b) WhatistheMADforthismodel?
c) ComputetheRSFEandtrackingsignals.Aretheywithinacceptablelimits?
4.55 Giventhefollowingdata,useleastsquaresregressiontoderiveatrendequation.Whatisyour
estimateofthedemandinperiod7?Inperiod12?
Period
Demand
11
10
13
4.56 JoeBarrow,ownerofBarrowsDepartmentStore,hasusedtimeseriesextrapolationtoforecast
retailsalesforthenext4quarters.Thesalesestimatesare$120,000,$140,000,$160,000,
and$180,000fortherespective quarters.Seasonal indicesfor the4quarters havebeen
foundtobe1.25,.90,.75,and1.10,respectively.Computeaseasonalizedoradjustedsales
forecast.
4.57ThedirectoroftheRileyCounty,Kansas,librarysystemwouldliketoforecasteveningpatronusage
fornextweek.Belowarethedataforthepast4weeks:
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
210
215
220
225
178
180
176
178
250
250
260
260
215
213
220
225
160
165
175
176
180
185
190
190
a)Calculateaseasonalindexforeachdayoftheweek.
b)Ifthetrendequationforthisproblemisy=201.74+.18x,whatistheforecastforeachdayofweek5?
Roundyourforecasttothenearestwholenumber.
4.58 Acarefulanalysisofthecostofoperatinganautomobilewasconductedbyafirm.Thefollowing
modelwasdeveloped:
Y=4,000+0.20X
whereYistheannualcostandXisthemilesdriven.
a) Ifthecarisdriven15,000milesthisyear,whatistheforecastedcostofoperatingthis
automobile?
b) Ifthecarisdriven25,000milesthisyear,whatistheforecastedcostofoperatingthis
automobile?
4.59Thefollowingmultipleregressionmodelwasdevelopedtopredictjobperformanceasmeasuredbya
company job performance evaluation index based on a preemployment test score and
collegegradepointaverage(GPA):
Y=35+20X1+50X2
where
Y =jobperformanceevaluationindex
X1 =preemploymenttestscore
X2 =collegeGPA
a) Forecastthejobperformanceindexforanapplicantwhohada3.0GPAandscored80
onthepreemploymentscore.
b) Forecastthejobperformanceindexforanapplicantwhohada2.5GPAandscored70
onthepreemploymentscore.
4.60 A study to determine the correlation between bank deposits and consumer price indices in
Birmingham,Alabama,revealedthefollowing(whichwasbasedonn=5yearsofdata):
x=15
x2=55
xy=70
y=20
y2=130
a) Whatistheequationoftheleastsquareregressionline?
b) Findthecoefficientofcorrelation.Whatdoesitimplytoyou?
c) Whatisthestandarderroroftheestimate?
4.61TheaccountantatRickWingCoalDistributors,Inc.,inSanFrancisconotesthatthedemandforcoal
seemstobetiedtoanindexofweatherseveritydevelopedbytheU.S.WeatherBureau.
WhenweatherwasextremelycoldintheU.S.overthepast5years(andtheindexwasthus
high),coalsaleswerehigh.Theaccountantproposesthatonegoodforecastofnextyears
coaldemandcouldbemadebydevelopingaregressionequationandthenconsultingthe
Farmers Almanac tosee how severe next years winter wouldbe. For the data in the
followingtable,derivealeastsquaresregressionandcomputethecoefficientofcorrelation
ofthedata.Alsocomputethestandarderroroftheestimate.
CoalSales,y
(inmillionsoftons)
WeatherIndex,x
4.62Giventhefollowingdata,useleastsquaresregressiontodeveloparelationbetweenthenumberof
rainysummerdaysandthenumberofgameslostbytheBocaRatonCardinalbaseballteam.
Year
RainyDays
GamesLost
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
15
25
25
20
10
10
10
15
30
20
20
15
20
20
15
10
10
5
25
20