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ABSTRACT
This essay will discuss that the Realist theory is an accurate instrument for perceiving
the reasons behind the airspace conflict between Russia and Turkey that happened in
November 2015. Realism is able to clearly analyze using a realistic context of the incident.
The basic ideology of the Realist theory and its value will be evaluated and implemented in
analyzing the behavior of Russia and Turkey in terms of their current political problems.
INTRODUCTION
The world was shaken by the Turkish foreign ministers decision to shoot down the
Su-24, Russian warplane, which was reportedly crossing Turkeys airspace in the northern
Latakia Province, borderline of Syria-Turkey on November 24 th 2015. This action raised
uncertainty as both parties denied being at fault. While Turkey stated that they had given the
plane ten warnings to get out their airspace before downing it, Russian pilots insisted that
they did not receive any kind of warning and did not even cross the borderline. Turkeys act
was immensely brave considering that Russia has great nuclear power and high economic
influence upon Turkey. This action undoubtedly will bring consequences for Turkey.
Considering that this action was remarkably brave, the question regarding the reasons
Turkey shot down the Russian warplane has become the main topic for this paper. This
paper is written to analyze and explain the background that contributed to Turkeys action
using the theory of Realist, due to its sensibility in explaining a political states behavior in
fulfilling their interests. The background revolves around both Russia and Turkeys roles and
purposes in the Middle East conflict; as both parties have major interests in Syria. Russia has
been bombing the Syrian Turkmen in the north-west Syria mountainous area, which is a
serious concern for Turkey as the Syrian Turkmen support Turkeys effort to overthrow
Assad. Therefore, the borderline crossing issue became a trigger for Turkey to strike back at
Russia. This paper will further explain the detailed background on this Russia-Turkey
conflict.
for what happened in Libya.3 In the case of Syria, instead of helping to remove Assad from
his position, Russia has supported Assads dictatorship despite knowing the circumstances in
the Syrian civil war.4 Russia made the process in the Security Council more difficult on
purpose in order to prevent the Damascus 5 regime from collapsing, which could have
destabilized Russias income from the Syrian purchase of Russian ammunition and arms.
Should Assad be forced to leave his throne, Russia will still try to maintain its commercial
and military interests in Syria.6 Realism views human nature pessimistically and
acknowledges the state as the only actor; it maintains that the state would not cooperate with
other actors without any meaning that does not give them profit (self-interest). In the case of
Syria, Russias main concern if the U.N. managed to overthrow Assad, is that it would
interfere with their ammunition and arms sales and supply to Syria. Syria is an important
strategic partner for Russia, especially in military matters since the Russian naval base in the
Mediterranean is located in Tartus, Syria.7 This fits the point of view of Realism:
The fact that all states must pursue their own national interest means that other
countries and governments can never be relied upon or completely trusted. All
international agreement are provisional and conditional on the willingness of states to
observe them. That makes treaties and all other agreements, conventions, customs,
rules, laws, and so on between states merely expedient agreements which can and will
be set aside if they conflict with the vital interests of states. 8
Aside from the economic aspect, the Russian position is accordant with Hans Morgenthau, a
realist, who says that politics is a struggle for power over men, and whatever its ultimate aim
may be, power is its immediate goal and the modes of acquiring, maintaining, and
demonstrating it determine the technique of political action. (Morgenthau 1965: 195)9 This
corresponds with what Ruslan Pukhov, a Russian defense analyst, has said about why Syria is
important for Russia.
"Syria is the only country in the Middle East which follows our advice, this is the
country where we can exercise certain tangible influence. Of course, the loss of Syria
will mean we will have no influence in this region at all. It has some symbolic value
for the Russian authorities and the foreign policy establishment as a sign of Russia as
a great power."
Other than that, Syrias geographic position is also profitable for Russia because of its
proximity with Iran. Moscow and Teheran have a close partnership in economic cooperation,
and share a similar hostility towards America as well as a common fear of al-Qaeda and the
Taliban.10 If the Damascus regime falls, there will be a big opportunity for America to
dominate Syria and isolate Iran from Russia. Therefore, preventing the overthrow of Assad
has become Russias main concern, since it would destroy Russias influence in the Middle
East and profit the West, which would threaten Russias power. This situation ensures that
Russia is doing its best to keep their sovereignty in Syria which, according to Realism theory
fits the prestige idea presented by E.H. Carr, If your strength is recognized, you can
generally achieve your aims without having to use it.11
11 Martin Wight, Power Politics 2nd Edition, edited by Hedley Bull and Carstaan
Holbraad (Leicester: Leicester University Press, 1995), p. 98.
4
12 Lin Jenkins, Vladimir Putin announces Russian sanctions against Turkey, The
Guardian, November 28th 2015, accessed on March 11th 2016, retrieved from
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/28/vladimir-putin-calls-for-greatersanctions-against-turkey
13 Selin Girit, Turkey faces big losses as Russia sanctions bite, BBC News, January 2nd
2016, accessed on March 11, 2016, retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/worldeurope-35209987
actually also fortified by the fact that Russia would not want a war, being in its present
economic and complicated situation with its neighboring states.14
Also, in order to protect itself, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet that had been bombing
Latakia in Syria, where Turkmen supporting fighters built their base camp. Turkey, also
despising Syrias regime, attempted to destroy it by making use of the organization of Islamic
State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)s presence in Syria to overthrow Assad. Turkeys effort was
supported by the Turkmen in Syriaalso a prime opposition party to Assads regime--who
repeatedly had become the victim of Russian bombing in the name of fighting ISIS
Turkmen who lived in Latakiaa strategic province for launching an attack on the Syrian
government--were a very valuable asset who had the chance to dominate Jarablus, Euphrates
River, and Azez-Aleppo once they were able to get rid of ISIS occupation. 15 Russia kept
expanding their operations towards Latakia in order to eliminate the American harbor located
there, which was suspected of being a receiving spot for heavy artillery shipments. Russia
expansion was also directed towards weakening the Syria-Turkey borderline.
This tension was exactly why Turkey would not stay silent and retaliated against
Russia, which led to the shooting down of the Su-24. Turkey attempted to show that their
country also had military forces which needed to be reckoned with. Turkeys confidence was
also boosted by their status as a NATO country, also known as Americas ally. Corresponding
with Realism, NATO backed Turkey up because they also had interests in the Middle East. As
mentioned by the theory, the state would not cooperate with other actors without any specific
purpose other than to strengthen itself (self-interest).
14 Sumantra Maitra, "It's Not a Cold War It's a Great Power Rivalry," Russia Direct,
March 9th 2016, accessed on March 15th 2016, retrieved from http://www.russiadirect.org/opinion/its-not-cold-war-its-great-power-rivalry
15 The areas were very valuable for winning over Assad since they were considered as
buffer areas.Fehim Tastekin, Turkey gambles on the Turkmens, Almonitor, November
30th 2015, accessed on March 11, 2016, retrieved from http://www.almonitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/turkey-syria-russia-turkmen-card-against-kurdsypg.html
CONCLUSION
The outline issue of Turkeys downing the Russian jet involves both countries
political motifs: In order to secure its dominance in Syria, Russia has an ambition to crush the
rebels seeking to overthrow President Assad in Syria, including the accomplices of Turkey in
Syria-Turkey border. In contrast, Turkey, which detests Assad, struck back to warn Russia not
to attack the Syria-Turkey border areas where the Turkmens base camps are, which
accommodate rebels against Assad.
The theories of Realist have clearly interpreted the reasons behind the Russian-Turkey
airspace conflict and the actions of both countries. Based on this study case, this essay shows
how the concept of Realism; i.e., the state as the only actor, self-interest, and effort in
achieving power, was effective in analyzing the contemporary Russia-Turkey conflict.
According to Realism, the conflict between the two countries happened as basically a country
does not need to trust other countries, and may justify immediate ways to safeguard the
interests and security of its own country.
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%E2%80%9D%22&f=false
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