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ADB Transport Forum

The future of transport: when


technology meets policy

Electric mobility
Status, success stories and prospects

Pierpaolo Cazzola
Manila, 14 September 2016
OECD/IEA 2016

The Electric Vehicles Initiative

Multi-government policy forum established in 2009 under CEM


Knowledge-sharing on policies and programs that support EV
deployment
16 member countries
Global EV Outlook 2016, released on 31 May

OECD/IEA 2016

0%

2010

Market share (2015)

5%

Others

50

Sweden

10%

France

100

Germany

15%

Japan

150

United Kingdom

20%

Norway

200

Netherlands

25%

United States

250

China

New electric car registrations


(thousands)

The electric car market in 2015


2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 market
share

550,000 EVs sold in 2015 (+ 70%)


China became the first EV market in 2015
9/10 EVs sold in 8 countries (China, US, Netherlands, Norway,
UK, Japan, Germany, France)
7 countries >1% market share (Norway, Netherlands, Sweden,
Denmark, France, China, UK)
OECD/IEA 2016

EV stock evolution, 2010-2015


Electric car stock (thousands)

1 400

1 200

2015: 1 million EVs

1 000
800
600
400

200
0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Others
Canada
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Norway
Netherlands
Japan
China
United States
BEV
BEV + PHEV

1.26 million EVs in circulation by end of 2015


59% BEVs
4/5 EVs in 5 countries (US, China, Japan, Netherlands, Norway)
Other modes: 200 M e-2Wheelers, 173 k e-buses (mainly in China)
OECD/IEA 2016

Battery cost (USD/kWh)

1200

400Wh/L

1000

295Wh/L

800
600
400

$268/kWh

$125/kWh

200
0
2008

2009
2010
2011
Battery cost (PHEV)
2020 Tesla Battery cost target (BEV)
Energy density (PHEV)

2012

2013

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Battery energy density (Wh/L)

Technology push

2014
2015
2020
2022
2022 DOE Battery cost target (PHEV)
2022 GM Battery cost target (BEV)
2022 DOE Energy density target (PHEV)

Technology push well represented by

Lower battery costs and improved energy density

PHEV battery costs -73% in the past 7 years


Ambitious announcements for the near future, -58% to go in the next 7 years

Wider model availability and improved value proposition for customers

OEMs (e.g. Renault-Nissan, BMW, GM, Tesla) did not offer the same variety of EVs 5
years ago
OECD/IEA 2016

20%
18%

20 000

16%
14%

15 000

12%
10%

10 000

8%
6%

5 000

4%
2%

BEVs

BEV market share

PHEV market share

United States

United Kingdom

Sweden

Portugal

Norway

Netherlands

Japan

Various policy mechanisms behind the market pull

PHEVs

0%

France

Share of PHEV or BEV in total car market

25 000

China

Estimated magnitude of purchase incentive


(USD)

Market pull

Differentiated taxation: CO2-based rebates, technology-based rebates, feebates, VAT


exemptions
Waivers on charges, exemptions from restrictions, preferential treatment if number
plate restrictions are in place

Norway stands out in terms of incentives and EV adoption


Difficult to come to conclusions for other markets (very early phase)

China and the Netherlands showed impressive changes in 2015


OECD/IEA 2016

We are not (yet?) there


Need for policy support

A policy framework with high taxes on conventional fuels and stringent


fuel economy standards is favorable for EVs

Purchase and circulation incentives and the availability of charging


infrastructure are positively correlated with EV uptake

Need for fiscal measures (e.g. differentiated taxation, feebates) to kick start
the market uptake

Need for mechanisms supporting the deployment of recharging infrastructure

Additional measures, increasing value proposition, likely to strengthen


the main policies

Incentives can only be transitional

Risk of tax revenue losses (incl. from fuel purchase)


Risk of congestion effects and detrimental effects to public transportation
Need for frequent monitoring and periodical revisions

OECD/IEA 2016