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VISCOSE RAYON in Technical Textiles and Nonwovens World Market Forecasts to 2010 January 2003 David

VISCOSE RAYON in Technical Textiles and Nonwovens

World Market Forecasts to 2010

January 2003

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©2003

VISCOSE in Technical Textiles and Nonwovens World Market Forecasts To 2010

PRODUCED FOR:

DRA Limited

Contents

Page

1

OVERVIEW

1.1

1.1

Viscose: Increasingly Reliant Upon Technical Textiles

1.1

1.2

Viscose Technical Textiles Defined

1.2

1.3

Aims of the Report

1.2

1.4

The Source of the Forecasts

1.3

1.5

Products Using Viscose included in this Report

1.3

1.6

Levels of Detail in this Report

1.5

1.7

Scope and Structure of the Report

1.5

2

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF VISCOSE IN THE TECHNICAL TEXTILES MARKET

2.1

2.1

Overall Market Size and Growth Rates for Technical Textiles

2.1

2.2

The Role of Viscose

2.2

3

VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS

3.1

3.1

Outline of the Chapter

3.1

3.2

Overall End-Use Consumption of Viscose

3.2

3.3

End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Fibre Form (Yarn Type)

3.3

3.4

End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Application Area and End-Use Product

3.4

3.5

The Highest Volume and Fastest Growing Viscose End-Uses

3.18

3.6

End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Region

3.25

3.7

End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type

3.30

4

VISCOSE: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES

4.1

Part A: Viscose World Totals, 1995-2010

4.3

Part B: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Polymer/Fibre Form

4.7

Part C: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Region

4.12

Part D: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Fabric and Other Final

Textile Product Type

4.22

Part E: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type against Polymer/Fibre Form

4.27

Part F: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Polymer/Fibre Form

4.31

Part G: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product

4.35

Appendix 1:

DEFINITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS

 

A.1.1

Appendix 2:

THE DRA TEXTILE PRODUCTS END-USE CONSUMPTION FORECASTING SYSTEM

A.2.1

© 2003

iii

iii

List of Exhibits

Exhibit

Page

 

Chapter 1: OVERVIEW

1.1:

Top 8 Viscose Producers (all fibre forms)

1.1

1.2:

List of the 30 Viscose End-Use Products Covered in this Report, with Relevant Application Area

1.4

1.3:

Reporting Levels used in this Report

1.5

Chapter 2: THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF VISCOSE IN THE TECHNICAL TEXTILES MARKET

2.1:

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles, 1995-2010 ('000 tonnes and US$bn)

2.1

2.2:

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles Annual Growth Rates, 2000-2004 (Volume Terms)

2.2

2.3:

Classification of Polymer/Fibre Types used in Technical Textiles

2.3

2.4:

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types, 1995-

2010

('000 tonnes)

2.4

2.5:

Polymers and Fibres Consumed in Technical Textiles, 1995-2010, by Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types (US$bn)

2.4

2.6:

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Type, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

2.5

2.7:

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Main Polymer/Fibre Type and Application Area, 2000 ('000 tonnes)

2.5

2.8:

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Types and Region, 2000 ('000 tonnes)

2.8

2.9:

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Selected Polymer/Fibre Type, 2000 and 2010

Chapter 3: VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS

('000 tonnes)

2.8

3.1:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles, 1995-2010 ('000 tonnes)

3.2

3.2:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Form, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

3.3

3.3:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Form, 2000 and

2010

('000 tonnes)

3.3

3.4:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Application Area, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

3.4

3.5:

World End-use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Application Area, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

3.5

3.6:

Viscose Medtech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.6

3.7:

Viscose Medtech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.6

3.8:

Relative Advantages and Disadvantages of Nonwoven, Disposable vs. Woven, Re-usable Gowns and Drapes

3.7

3.9:

Viscose Indutech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.9

3.10:

Viscose Indutech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.9

3.11:

Viscose Mobiltech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.11

© 2003

iv

iv

List of Exhibits (continued)

Exhibit

Page

 

Chapter 3: VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS (continued)

3.12:

Viscose Mobiltech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.11

3.13:

Fibre Shares in Tyre Cord Consumption, 2000

3.12

3.14:

Viscose Hometech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.12

3.15:

Viscose Hometech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.13

3.16:

Viscose Clothtech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.14

3.17:

Viscose Clothtech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.14

3.18:

Viscose Sporttech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.15

3.19:

Viscose Sporttech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.15

3.20:

Viscose Protech Products: World End-Use Consumption and Market Share, 2000

3.15

3.21:

Viscose Protech Products: World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

3.16

3.22:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Staple Fibre Form, by Product, 2000

3.17

3.23:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Spun Staple Form, by Product, 2000

3.17

3.24:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Textile Multifilament Form, by Product, 2000

3.18

3.25:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose HT Multifilament, by Product, 2000

3.18

3.26:

Highest Volume Viscose Products in Technical Textiles, 2000, in Descending Order of Size

3.19

3.27:

Fastest Growing Viscose Products in Technical Textiles between 2000 and 2010 in Descending Growth Rate Order

3.20

3.28:

Average Annual Growth Rates by End-Use for Viscose in Technical Textiles, 2000 to 2010 (Volume Terms)

3.21

3.29:

Matrix of Forecast Growth Rates, 2000 to 2010, by Market Size, 2000

3.22

3.30:

Analysis of Increase in Viscose Demand between 2000 and 2010

3.23

3.31:

Market Growth Trends and Market Share Changes for Viscose between 2000 and 2010 for the 10 Fastest Growing Viscose End-Use Products ('000 tonnes)

3.24

3.32:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

3.25

3.33:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

3.25

3.34:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Staple Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

3.26

3.35:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Staple Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

3.26

3.36:

World End-Use Consumption of Spun Staple Viscose Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

3.27

3.37:

World End-Use Consumption of Spun Staple Viscose Fibre in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

3.27

3.38:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Textile Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

3.28

3.39:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose Textile Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

3.28

© 2003

v

v

List of Exhibits (continued)

Exhibit

Page

 

Chapter 3: VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS (continued)

3.40:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose HT Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

3.29

3.41:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose HT Multifilament in Technical Textiles by Region, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

3.29

3.42:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

3.30

3.43:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

3.30

3.44:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Unspun Fibre Form, by Product, 2000

3.31

3.45:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Woven Fabric Form, by Product, 2000

3.31

3.46:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Knitted Fabric Form, by Product, 2000

3.32

3.47:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Nonwoven Fabric Form, by Product, 2000

3.32

3.48:

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Yarn Type Form, by Product, 2000

3.33

APPENDIX 1: DEFINITIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS

A1.1:

Techtextil Application Areas

A1.1

A1.2:

The Inter-relationship between Products in the Technical Textiles Production Chain

A1.3

A1.3:

Reporting Levels used in this Report

A1.4

APPENDIX 2: THE DRA TEXTILE PRODUCTS END-USE CONSUMPTION FORECASTING SYSTEM

A2.1:

Products included in the Technical Textiles Partition of DRA's Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System

A2.5

A2.2:

Full List of Variables and their Subsets in the Technical Textiles Partition of DRA's Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System

A2.6

© 2003

vi

vi

List of Forecast Tables

Table

Page

 

Chapter 4: VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS: DETAILED FORECAST TABLES

Part A: Summary Tables: Viscose World Totals, 1995-2010

 

4.1:

End-Use Consumption Analysis by Polymer/Fibre Form, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.4

4.2:

End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.4

4.3:

End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.5

4.4:

End-Use Consumption Analysis by Application Area, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.5

4.5:

End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product, Volume ('000 tonnes) 4.6

Part B: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Polymer/Fibre Form

4.6:

All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.8

4.7:

All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.9

4.8:

Staple Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.10

4.9:

Spun Staple, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.10

4.10:

Textile Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.11

4.11:

High Tenacity Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.11

Part C: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Region

4.12:

By Region, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.13

4.13:

By Region, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.14

4.14:

North America, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.15

4.15:

South America, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.16

4.16:

Western Europe, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.17

4.17:

Eastern Europe, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.18

4.18:

South Asia, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.19

4.19:

North East Asia, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.20

4.20:

South East Asia, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.21

Part D: End-Use Consumption Analysis by End-Use Product against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type

4.21:

All Fabrics, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.23

4.22:

All Fabrics, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.24

4.23:

Unspun Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.25

4.24:

Woven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.25

4.25:

Knitted Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.26

4.26:

Nonwoven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.26

4.27:

Yarn Type Products, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.26

© 2003

vii

© 2003 vii

List of Forecast Tables (continued)

Table

Page

Part E: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type against Polymer/Fibre Form

4.28:

All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.28

4.29:

All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.28

4.30:

Staple Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.29

4.31:

Spun Staple, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.29

4.32:

Textile Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.30

4.33:

High Tenacity Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.30

Part F: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Polymer/Fibre Form

4.34:

All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.32

4.35:

All Polymer/Fibre Forms, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.32

4.36:

Staple Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.33

4.37:

Spun Staple, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.33

4.38:

Textile Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.34

4.39:

High Tenacity Multifilament, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.34

Part G: End-Use Consumption Analysis by Region against Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type

4.40:

All Fabrics, 2000, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.36

4.41:

All Fabrics, 2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.36

4.42:

Unspun Fibre, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.37

4.43:

Woven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.37

4.44:

Knitted Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.38

4.45:

4.38

4.46:

Nonwoven Fabric, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes) Yarn Type Products, 1995-2010, Volume ('000 tonnes)

4.38

© 2003

viii

© 2003 viii

1.

OVERVIEW

1.1 VISCOSE: INCREASINGLY RELIANT UPON TECHNICAL TEXTILES

According to industry sources, the total consumption of viscose across all textile applications fell at an average annual rate of 1.5% between 1995 and 2000 at a time when consumption of all fibres in total rose by an average of 2% per annum. In non-

technical applications, viscose's drape, fluidity and good dye uptake make it ideal for use in lightweight printed dresses, blouses, shirts and scarves, etc., whilst its high degree of conformability makes it an excellent fibre in filament form for use in garment linings. Its use in clothing, however, is heavily dependent on fashion, and is constrained by its poor launderability and, in particular, its high cost relative to the other high volume apparel fibres. In technical textiles viscose is also significantly more expensive than its main competitors, polyester and polypropylene. As a result, viscose is increasingly used in only

a small range of woven and knitted technical applications where its unique performance capabilities warrant the extra cost.

However, despite the decline in total viscose consumption, the demand for viscose in technical textiles overall (including nonwovens) grew at an average rate of 3.1% per annum between 1995 and 2000. Between the years 2000 and 2010 the use of viscose in these technical applications is forecast by DRA to grow at the considerably higher average annual rate of 6.2% to reach almost 890,000 tonnes by the year 2010.

The highest growth rate for viscose in technical textiles is in the form of unspun fibre. The majority of this is used in carded nonwovens where overall demand is being driven by the need for convenient and disposable

consumer and industrial products. Viscose nonwovens are forecast to have an average annual growth rate of 7.8% between 2000 and 2010 as

a result of a combination of product

segment growth and increased viscose shares in some products, such as wipes. Viscose's absorbency and biodegradability give it an advantage over competing fibres in nonwovens, whilst its non-thermoplastic nature,

low-shrink characteristics and resistance to certain fluids make it ideal for use in many mechanical rubber goods (MRGs). However, as in the case of most of viscose's traditional woven, knitted and braided markets, overall demand for MRGs is forecast to show only low or negative rates of growth worldwide.

Exhibit 1.1: Top 8 Viscose Producers (all fibre forms)

Grasim

Lenzing

Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corp

Acordis

PT South Pacific Viscose (Lenzing: 42%)

PT Indo-Bharat Rayon (Grasim)

Thai Rayon

Säteri Fibres

In response to these changes in demand for viscose in both consumer and technical end- uses, the industry has become increasingly consolidated over recent years with many of the smaller European and Japanese producers closing plants or going out of business. Recent estimates for total world viscose production indicate that the top four companies now account for around one-third of the world's viscose fibre supply. China, which has a large number of viscose producers of varying size, currently accounts for a further one- quarter of global viscose capacity.

© 2003

1.1

viscose producers of varying size, currently accounts for a further one- quarter of global viscose capacity.

In Japan, many of the producers of viscose or other regenerated cellulosic fibres have either curtailed production or pulled out of the product segment entirely. There are now no producers of filament viscose and the remaining Japanese producers of viscose staple fibre (Omikenshi and Daiwabo Rayon), like Lenzing in Europe, have stated their intention to concentrate on the production of fibres for use in nonwovens, which now account for the majority of their sales.

Elsewhere in the Far East, South Pacific Rayon in Indonesia and Thai Rayon have both switched one-third of their production to the manufacture of viscose staple fibre for nonwoven applications.

In terms of geographic markets, Western Europe accounts for approaching one half of global viscose consumption in technical textiles, largely as a result of the region's dominance of unspun viscose fibre and high tenacity (HT) multifilament applications. Whilst currently the second-largest consuming region overall behind Western Europe, North America is forecast to lose share to North East Asia, as a result of the latter's increasing importance in terms of multifilament and unspun fibre consumption.

From an environmental perspective many of those involved in the industry claim that, since viscose is biodegradable and does not use petroleum as a raw material, it has a distinct ecological advantage over synthetic fibres. However, the use of large quantities of hazardous chemicals during the manufacturing process militates against its production in the longer-term in those countries which have stringent environmental legislation. This highly contentious factor, combined with the increase in consumption in regions such as Asia and South America, is likely to shift the balance of production still further away from Western countries in the future.

1.2

VISCOSE TECHNICAL TEXTILES DEFINED

This report considers all technical textiles that use viscose rayon in fibre, yarn or fabric form. In this report technical textiles are defined as comprising all those textile-based products which are used principally for their performance or functional characteristics rather than for their aesthetics, or are used for non-consumer (i.e. industrial) applications. Hence the definition does not depend on the yarn or fibre used, but on the end-use of the product itself. A more detailed definition of technical textiles is provided in Appendix 1.

1.3

AIMS OF THE REPORT

The mains aims of this report are as follows:

i) to provide a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the current world market for viscose in nonwovens and other technical textiles by individual end-use product

ii) to provide estimates of current end-use consumption levels for 30 separate end- use products containing viscose by region and by physical make-up (fibre form/yarn type, fabric type)

iii) to provide forecasts of consumption by product by region to 2010 at the same level of detail, based on a well defined and internally consistent set of assumptions, in order to provide a clear picture of future demand for viscose fibre in technical applications.

This information on the most important features of the viscose technical textiles market currently and up to 2010 is expected to be useful to the following types of organisation:

© 2003

1.2

textiles market currently and up to 2010 is expected to be usef ul to the following

Producers of fibre intermediates, fibres, yarns and fabrics already operating in the sector or wishing to enter it

Suppliers of chemicals to the fibre and textile industries: spin finishes, process chemicals, adhesives, coatings, effect chemicals, etc.

Manufacturers of machinery for fibre production and processing, textile production, coating, laminating, etc.

Converters and other downstream processors of technical textiles and nonwovens

Fibre trade associations

Ultimate commercial end-users of technical products.

1.4

THE SOURCE OF THE FORECASTS

The product detail and market forecasts in this report are based on DRA’s proprietary system for describing and forecasting world end-use markets for textile products. Details of this Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System are given in Appendix

2.

The databases and the model included in this consumption forecasting system have been set up to handle a high level of product and market detail. In practice the physical make- up of some 150 individual end-use products (including 30 products which use viscose) included in the technical textiles partition of this consumption forecasting system is analysed across 210 individual country markets into:

19 individual polymer/fibre types (e.g. cotton, viscose, polyester, etc)

8 forms of polymer/fibre used (e.g. unspun staple fibre, filament yarns, tape yarns)

19 different final textile product types (e.g. narrow woven fabrics, warp knits, dry- laid nonwovens)

4 coating types (plus uncoated).

Complete lists of the 150 technical textile products and the other variables contained within the DRA consumption forecasting system are given in Exhibits A2.1 and A2.2 in Appendix 2.

1.5

PRODUCTS USING VISCOSE INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT

Each of the 30 individual end-use technical textile products in which viscose is used has been assigned to one of the relevant 12 application areas as defined by Messe Frankfurt, the organisers of the Techtextil Shows and described in Exhibit A1.1, Appendix 1. A list of the products which use viscose, together with their application area and brief product description, is provided in Exhibit 1.2, overleaf.

© 2003

1.3

together with their application area and brief product description, is provided in Exhibit 1.2, overleaf. ©

Exhibit 1.2

List of the 30 Viscose End- Use Products Covered in this Report, with Relevant Application Area

© 2003

Application Area and Product

 

Product Description and Function

 

Clothtech:

Woven and knitted fabrics used to provide support and structure to garments

Interlinings, woven & knitted

Clothtech:

Nonwoven

fabrics

used

to

provide

support

and

structure

to

Interlinings, nonwoven

garments

Hometech:

Cleaning wipes for domestic applications in woven or knit form

 

Wipes, woven & knitted

Hometech:

Cleaning wipes for domestic applications in nonwoven form - including floor mops, etc

Wipes, nonwoven

Hometech:

Outer fabrics for wrapping mattresses

 

Mattress tickings

Hometech:

Fabrics used as a base for cushions on upholstered furniture

 

Platform cloth

Indutech: Conveyor belting

Woven fabrics for conveying and speciality applications

 

Indutech: Hoses

Braids, woven and knitted fabrics used to reinforce rubber and polymer hoses for industrial applications

Indutech: Drive belting

Machine drive and power transmission belting including flat and coated products as well as V-type designs

Indutech: Abrasives

Fabrics for a variety of polishing and abrasion applications

 

Indutech:

Cleaning wipes for industrial applications in knit/woven form

 

Wipes, woven & knitted

Indutech:

Cleaning wipes for industrial applications in nonwoven form

 

Wipes, nonwoven

Indutech:

Filter media for swimming pools, food, vessel bags, etc.

 

Liquid filters, nonwoven

Indutech:

Fabrics for battery separators, floppy disc liners, transformers, etc - excludes PCBs

Battery separators, etc

Indutech: Fibrefill

Fibrefill and waddings for miscellaneous industrial applications

 

Medtech:

Lightweight nonwoven garments used in protective and medical situations

Gowns and drapes, nonwoven

Medtech:

All medical wovens and knits such as bandages and dressings, gauze, slings, etc

Woundcare, woven & knitted

Medtech:

Nonwovens for bandages, dressings and other medical end-uses not elsewhere specified

Woundcare, nonwoven

Medtech: Sterile packaging

Sterile medical packaging

 

Medtech: Coverstock

Outer fabrics used in sanitary towels, diapers, incontinence pads

 

Medtech: Cotton wool

Loose fibre used for removing or applying powders or liquids

 

Medtech: Wipes

Wipes for cleansing skin, face, hands, etc

 

Mobiltech: Car tyre cord

Fabric for reinforcement of tyres

 

Mobiltech: CV tyre cord

Fabric for reinforcement of tyres other than for cars

 

Mobiltech: Auto drive belt

Fabric for reinforcement of automotive drive belts, etc

 

Mobiltech: Auto hose

Fabric for reinforcement of automotive hoses

 

Protech: FR clothing

Fabrics for use in clothing worn to protect against flame and heat

 

Protech: NBC

Fabrics to protect against nuclear, biological and chemical exposure

Sporttech: Bookcloth

Substrate for leather-type covering of hard backed books

 

Sporttech:

Substrates for artificial leather handbags, luggage, small goods

 

Artificial leather substrates

 

Source: DRA

1.4

for artificial leather handbags, luggage, small goods   Artificial leather substrates   Source: DRA 1.4

1.6 LEVELS OF DETAIL IN THIS REPORT

Not all variables included in the DRA consumption forecasting system are relevant to viscose. Hence, in this report, the physical make-up of each of the 30 viscose products listed in Exhibit 1.2 is analysed in terms of 4 fibre forms and 5 fabric/final textile product types as shown in Exhibit 1.3. Also, for the sake of conciseness, the 210 countries in the consumption forecasting system have been condensed into 8 regions.

Exhibit 1.3

Reporting Levels used in this Report

 

Regions

Fibre Forms

Fabric and Other End-Use Product Types

 

(Yarn Types)

N

America

Staple Fibre

Unspun Fibre

S

America

Spun Staple

Woven

W Europe

Textile Multifilament (regular tenacity)

Knitted

E

Europe

Industrial Multifilament (high tenacity)

Nonwoven

S Asia

Yarn Type Products

N

E Asia

S

E Asia

Rest of World (Central Asia, Middle East, Africa, Oceania)

 

Total: 8

Total: 4

Total: 5

Source: DRA

Further details of the variables used in this report are given in Exhibit A1.3, Appendix 1.

1.7 SCOPE AND STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT

Chapter 2: The Relative Importance of Viscose in the Technical Textiles Market provides summary forecasts for the technical textiles market in total and then compares the current size and prospects for man-made fibres/polymers in technical textile markets with the other broad fibre groups: natural and inorganic. It then looks briefly at inter-fibre competition between viscose and other individual fibre types (e.g. polyester).

Chapter 3: Viscose End-Use Products and Markets draws on the detailed Tables in Chapter 4 to highlight some of the important trends in the use of viscose in technical textiles and nonwovens.

Chapter 4: Viscose End-Use Products: Detailed Forecast Tables provides a set of 46 Forecast Tables drawn from the DRA consumption forecasting system analysing the world market for viscose from 1995 to 2010. These tables are split into 7 Parts:

Part A consists of 5 Summary Tables, which provide an overview of viscose consumption worldwide over the period 1995-2010. These tables split viscose consumption by polymer/fibre form, fabric type, region, application area and end- use product.

© 2003

1.5

split viscose consumption by polymer/fibre form, fabric type, region, application area and end- use product. ©

Parts B-D provide a detailed analysis of 30 individual viscose end-use products with consumption forecasts to 2010:

Part B (6 tables) shows the relative importance of each of the 4 fibre forms in the production of each viscose product over the period 1995- 2010 (e.g. staple fibre)

Part C (9 tables) provides estimates and forecasts of consumption for each product across 8 regions of the world over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. North America)

Part D (7 tables) shows the relative importance of each of the 6 fabric and other end-use product types in the production of each viscose product over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. knitted fabric).

Parts E-F provide an analysis of overall end-use viscose consumption by the 8 main polymer/fibre forms with forecasts to 2010:

Part E (6 Tables) provides estimates and forecasts for the use of each polymer/fibre form in each of the 6 fabric and other end-use product types over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. unspun fibre in nonwovens)

Part F (6 Tables) provides estimates and forecasts for the use of each polymer/fibre form in each of 8 regions of the world over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. spun staple yarns in Eastern Europe).

Part G (7 Tables) provides an analysis of overall end-use viscose consumption by the 6 fabric types in each of 8 regions of the world over the period 1995-2010 (e.g. nonwoven fabrics in Western Europe).

Appendix 1: Definitions and Assumptions outlines the main assumptions and definitions underlying the projections in this report and provides a description of the main table formats used to present the forecasts.

Appendix 2: The DRA Textile Products End-Use Consumption Forecasting System describes the consumption forecasting system developed by David Rigby Associates which is the basis of the volume and value estimates presented in this report.

© 2003

1.6

by David Rigby Associates which is the basis of the volume and value estimates presented in

2.

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF VISCOSE IN THE TECHNICAL TEXTILES MARKET

2.1 OVERALL MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH RATES FOR TECHNICAL TEXTILES

Technical textiles and nonwovens (referred to in this report collectively as technical textiles) already play a much more important role worldwide than is commonly acknowledged. According to DRA’s estimates, world production and consumption of technical textiles in 2000 amounted to just over 16.7 million tonnes of fibre and polymer with a finished textile product value of US$92.9 billion. In weight terms, this represents some 27% of the estimated 62.2 million tonnes of fibres consumed across all end-uses in that year.

Exhibit 2.1

World End-Use

Consumption of

Technical Textiles,

1995-2010

(‘000 tonnes and US$ bn)

25,000 140.0 120.0 20,000 100.0 15,000 80.0 60.0 10,000 40.0 5,000 20.0 0 0.0 '000
25,000
140.0
120.0
20,000
100.0
15,000
80.0
60.0
10,000
40.0
5,000
20.0
0
0.0
'000 tonnes
US$ bn

1995

2000

2005

Year

2010

Volume ('000 tonnes) Value (US$ bn) at Quarter 1 2002 prices

Volume ('000 tonnes)

Volume ('000 tonnes) Value (US$ bn) at Quarter 1 2002 prices

Value (US$ bn) at Quarter 1 2002 prices

Source: DRA

There are signs, however, that the fastest period of expansion of the technical textiles industry is already over. Exhibit 2.1 indicates a faster rate of overall market growth in both volume and value terms for the period 2005-2010, but this largely reflects an anticipated upturn in global economic activity after a period of slow growth, and in many countries actual recession, around the turn of the century. Nevertheless, forecast average growth rates (in volume terms) of 3.5% between 1995 and 2005 and 3.8% p.a. from 2005 to 2010 remain relatively attractive, especially in comparison with most other, non-technical, textile markets.

Forecast growth rates in value terms (constant 2002 prices) are lower than those for volumes, with technical textiles consumption forecast to grow on average by only 2.8% p.a. in value terms over the period 1995-2005, recovering to 3.6% p.a. between 2005 and 2010. This is the result of a weakening of the mix in terms of:

© 2003

2.1

recovering to 3.6% p.a. between 2005 and 2010. This is the result of a weakening of

fibres used (e.g. polyester replacing higher priced polyamide within product segments such as Protech and Sporttech)

fabric types (nonwovens growing faster than higher priced wovens and knits, especially in Medtech and Hometech)

product mix (e.g. large volumes of high priced tyre cord in Mobiltech growing far more slowly than products such as composites that have low textile value per unit weight).

Exhibit 2.2 describes the shorter-term outlook for technical textile markets. The New York terrorist attacks of September 2001 further depressed an already fragile world economy, resulting in a major slow-down in the growth rates for the technical textile market. The market is expected to have grown in volume terms on average by 2.1% p.a. between 2000-2002 compared with an average of 3.7% p.a. between 1995 and 2000. However, from 2002 a recovery is forecast with growth rates of more than 4% p.a. between 2002 and 2004.

Exhibit 2.2

World End-Use

Consumption of

Technical Textiles

Annual Growth

Rates, 2000-2004

(Volume Terms)

4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2000-01
4.5%
4.1%
4.2%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
% Change AA

Period

Source: DRA

2.2 THE ROLE OF VISCOSE

This Section looks briefly at the role of synthetic and regenerated fibres compared with the other main groups of fibres (natural, inorganic). It then goes on to look more specifically at inter-fibre competition and how viscose compares with the other individual fibres (e.g. polyester) in technical textiles and nonwovens.

2.2.1 How the Technical Textile Market is Split By Broad Grouping of Polymer/Fibre Types

All the major textile polymers are represented in the technical textiles market, including polyester, polyamide, polyolefin, acrylic and viscose, as well as a number of high performance or speciality materials e.g. aramids, carbon, ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE), polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), polyphenylene sulphide (PPS),

© 2003

2.2

high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE), polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), polyphenylene sulphide (PPS), © 2003 2.2

polyvinyl chloride (PVC) etc. Natural and inorganic fibres (especially glass) are also used in large volumes for their specific characteristics.

Exhibit 2.3 indicates how the 19 individual polymer/fibre types within the DRA Textile Product End-Use Consumption Forecasting System are aggregated into broad groups for the purpose of providing an overview of technical textile markets in Section 2.2.2.

In this report the market definition for technical textiles is based on fibre products and therefore excludes any materials produced via extrusion technologies such as extruded nets and strappings.

Exhibit 2.3

Classification of Polymer/Fibre Types used in Technical Textiles

Polymer/Fibre Types

 

Aggregation Levels for which Broad Forecasts are made in Section 2.2.2

 

World Market Size

Individual Polymer/Fibre Types included in the Aggregation (See Exhibit A2.2 in Appendix 2)

2000

‘000

% share

   

tonnes

Natural

Cotton

3,462

21%

Wool

Others

Wood-pulp

Regenerated

Viscose Other cellulosic fibre

1,034

6%

Synthetic

Polyester Polyamide Polyolefin Polypropylene Polyethylene Acrylic Elastomeric Aramid para-aramid meta-aramid Other synthetic high performance

9,638

58%

Inorganic

Glass

2,580

15%

Carbon

Ceramic

Steel

 

TOTAL

16,715

100%

Source: DRA

It can be seen from Exhibit 2.3 that of the 16.7 million tonnes of polymer/fibre consumed worldwide in 2000 in the manufacture of technical textiles, synthetic fibres had a 58% share, natural fibres and wood-pulp 21%, inorganic fibres (mainly glass) 15% and regenerated fibres 6%.

© 2003

2.3

58% share, natural fibres and wood-pul p 21%, inorganic fibres (mainly glass) 15% and regenerated fibres

2.2.2 Growth by Broad Grouping of Polymer/Fibre Types

As shown in Exhibit 2.4, between 2000 and 2010 the technical textiles market is forecast to increase by an average of 3.6% per annum in volume terms, to reach 28.3 million tonnes. Over the same period synthetic fibres are forecast to grow a little more rapidly (by 3.7% per annum), and will remain the most widely used broad polymer/fibre type in

2010.

However, rather faster rates of growth over the second half of the decade are forecast for regenerated fibres (mostly viscose) and especially, inorganic fibres (mostly glass). Natural fibres will grow only slowly and consequently lose market share.

Exhibit 2.4

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types, 1995-2010 (‘000 tonnes)

Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types

 

Year

   

CAGR %

1995

2000

2005

2010

95 - 00

00 - 05

05 - 10

Natural

3,125

3,462

3,839

4,447

2.1%

2.1%

3.0%

Regenerated

964

1,034

1,178

1,434

1.4%

2.6%

4.0%

Synthetic

7,884

9,638

11,498

13,902

4.1%

3.6%

3.9%

Inorganic

1,999

2,580

3,167

3,991

5.2%

4.2%

4.7%

TOTAL

13,971

16,714

19,683

23,774

3.7%

3.3%

3.8%

Source: DRA

Exhibit 2.5 provides a split in value terms of the technical textiles market by major fibre group, based on constant Quarter 1 2002 prices. Total consumption of technical textiles is forecast to increase on average by 3.7% per annum from US$32.5 billion in 2000 to US$46.2 billion by the end of the decade. In 2010 synthetics will have, at 64%, by far the largest market share in value terms.

Exhibit 2.5

Polymers and Fibres Consumed in Technical Textiles, 1995- 2010, by Broad Group of Polymer/Fibre Types (US$bn)

© 2003

50 45 40 35 Inorganic 30 Synthetic 25 Regenerated 20 Natural / Woodpulp 15 10
50
45
40
35
Inorganic
30
Synthetic
25
Regenerated
20
Natural / Woodpulp
15
10
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
US$ billion

Source: DRA

2.4

25 Regenerated 20 Natural / Woodpulp 15 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year US$

2.2.3 Individual Polymer/Fibre Types Used in Technical Textiles and Nonwovens

Despite the considerable attention paid to higher value speciality fibres such as aramids and carbon, the standard textile polymers such as polyester, polyamide and polypropylene, along with glass fibres and natural and cellulosic fibres, account for over 99% by weight of all textile material used in technical applications. As can be seen from Exhibit 2.6, viscose accounted for just 3% of the total market by weight in 2000.

Exhibit 2.6

World End-Use Consumption of Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Type, 2000 (% Split in Volume Terms)

Other Glass Cotton Other cellulosic <1% 15% 7% Other natural 3% 14% Viscose 3% Acrylic
Other
Glass
Cotton
Other cellulosic
<1%
15%
7%
Other natural
3%
14%
Viscose
3%
Acrylic
<1%
Polyester
25%
Polyolefin
25%
Polyamide

7%

Source: DRA.

2.2.4 Polymer/Fibre Type End-Use Consumption by Application Area

Exhibit 2.7 shows the split of technical textile consumption for each of the major polymer/fibre types by the 12 Techtextil application areas.

Exhibit 2.7

World End-

Use

Consumption

of Technical

Textiles by

Main

Polymer/

Fibre Type

and

Application

Area, 2000

(’000 tonnes)

© 2003

   

Polymer/Fibre Type

 

TOTAL

Application

     

Other

 

Other

       

Area

PES

Poly-

olefin

PA

synth-

Viscose

Regen-

Natural

In-

organic

‘000

Tonnes

% share

of total

etic

erated

Agrotech

120.8

807.2

212.6

6.6

0.0

0.0

234.1

0.0

1,381.3

8.3%

Buildtech

250.9

212.7

41.0

30.0

0.0

0.0

120.7

992.7

1,648.0

9.9%

Clothtech

870.0

38.9

65.1

2.2

41.9

0.0

219.8

0.0

1,237.8

7.4%

Geotech

126.9

120.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

7.4

0.0

255.1

1.5%

Hometech

903.0

647.7

17.0

1.8

54.5

0.0

454.7

107.3

2,185.9

13.1%

Indutech

328.5

172.8

101.1

42.0

116.5

543.9

153.7

746.4

2,204.9

13.2%

Medtech

160.7

851.4

6.3

2.9

198.5

0.0

323.7

0.0

1,543.5

9.2%

Mobiltech

758.1

174.7

595.5

25.2

75.0

0.0

166.6

683.8

2,478.9

14.8%

Packtech

32.2

923.3

1.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

1594.8

0.0

2,551.8

15.3%

Protech

114.4

46.7

32.8

15.5

0.9

0.0

27.2

0.4

238.0

1.4%

Sporttech

465.4

122.9

175.1

14.0

2.5

0.0

159.7

49.6

989.1

5.9%

Total

4,131.7

4,119.1

1,248.1

140.2

489.9

543.9

3,462.4

2,580.1

16,714.3

100.0%

% Share

24.7%

24.6%

7.5%

0.8%

2.9%

3.3%

20.7%

15.4%

100.0%

-

Oekotech

                   

(incl in above total)

49.2

97.8

3.0

7.3

0.0

0.0

12.7

43.9

214.5

1.3%

Source: DRA

2.5

(incl in above total) 49.2 97.8 3.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 12.7 43.9 214.5 1.3% Source: DRA

This Exhibit shows that polyester is used in significant volumes across all application areas (with the exception of Packtech) as a consequence of its low price, versatility, and ability to engineer a wide range of specific performance characteristics. Polyolefin polymer/fibres come a very close second in terms of total volumes and spread of usage. Viscose is one of the smaller volume fibres, with its use heavily concentrated into five application areas where its specific characteristics are valued (see Chapter 3).

Polyester

Polyester offers an excellent price-performance balance combined with a range of properties which have led it to gain considerable ground in many technical applications. These gains have been mostly at the expense of viscose in higher tenacity/modulus end- uses, polyamide in foul weather clothing and technical consumer goods applications, and natural materials and polymer foams in applications such as filling materials. Polyester is forecast to continue to gain share from viscose in a number of MRG applications such as conveyor belts (Indutech), and commercial vehicle tyre cord (Mobiltech).

However, the rise of polyester will not continue unchallenged; recent new fibre developments, such as PLA (polylactic acid), are seeking a share of some existing polyester strongholds in relatively high volume areas of the technical textiles market, such as fibrefill. There are a few instances where polyester is blended with viscose, usually to increase strength and stability (e.g. nonwovens).

Polyolefins

Polypropylene is used mainly in relatively low performance technical applications such as Packtech, Medtech, Hometech and Agrotech. It is also used extensively in carpet face yarns and in some apparel and non-technical furnishing products which are not covered in this report.

The use of polypropylene (and to a much smaller extent polyethylene) in textile applications has grown rapidly over recent years, and polypropylene is now second only to polyester in overall usage in technical applications. The importance of technical polyolefin products in Asia (and elsewhere) is set to rise, particularly to the extent that it can substitute for the considerable amounts of jute and sisal still used throughout the world.

Polypropylene competes extensively with viscose in Medtech. Polypropylene often benefits from its considerably lower price, but loses out in terms of poor absorbency performance relative to viscose, especially in high growth areas such as wipes.

Polyamide

Polyamide (nylon) continues to be used in applications which require greater extensibility and energy absorbing capacity, ranging from ropes, fishing nets and spinnaker sails to conveyor belting and airbags. Its use is concentrated in Mobiltech which consumes just under 48% of all polyamide polymers and fibres used in technical textiles.

There is little substitution between the two forms of nylon, PA6 and PA6.6, as each has its own specific characteristics suited to certain end-uses. However, nylon’s higher price and the lack of a ‘standard’ product have hindered its development overall and made it a target for substitution by a number of alternative polymers offering comparable combinations of properties.

Viscose competes with polyamide in MRG end-use products such as conveyor belts, hoses and drive belting (Indutech), and automotive hoses, drive belts and tyre cord (Mobiltech). In the case of tyre cord in particular, both viscose and polyamide are losing share to newer, more stable, forms of polyester.

© 2003

2.6

cord in particular, both viscose and polyamide are losing share to newer, more stable, forms of

Other Synthetic Fibres

Acrylic fibres and their modified variants are valued for their resistance to temperature, fire and ultra-violet rays in applications as diverse as filtration media (Indutech), protective clothing (Protech), furnishings (Mobiltech), awnings (Buildtech) and boat covers (Mobiltech). However, like polyamide, they continue to lose market share to improved versions of polyester, the aramids and even polypropylene in these application areas.

High performance and high value synthetic fibres offer unique combinations of properties suited to a range of specific technical applications such as in filtration products (Indutech) and protective clothing (Protech) where meta-aramids and flame retardant viscose variants compete. However, apart from carbon and the aramids, none can yet lay claim to markets of more than a few hundred or, at most, a few thousand tonnes worldwide, albeit of very high unit values.

Other Regenerated Fibres

The consumption of other regenerated fibres in technical textiles is dominated by acetate, although this category also includes small volumes of lyocell.

Unlike viscose, which is used in 30 end-use products, acetate is confined solely to cigarette tow (Indutech). Cigarette production has been broadly static for several years and volumes are forecast to remain relatively flat to 2010.

Natural Fibres

Natural fibres still play a prominent part in many technical applications, either because they have specific attributes not normally possessed by man-made polymers such as absorbency (e.g. cotton for surgical and hygiene applications in Medtech) or are locally abundant and suited to less demanding (but nonetheless still technical) textile applications such as jute for sacking and carpet backing, or sisal for rope and twine.

Jute continues to be under threat from synthetic fibre alternatives (mainly polypropylene but some polyester), especially in developed markets.

There is some direct competition between cotton and viscose, particularly in Medtech applications such as 'cotton wool' and woven and knitted woundcare. Cotton tends to dominate these product segments as a result of its lower cost.

Inorganic Fibres

The main inorganic fibre in technical textiles is glass, whose role is often understated or ignored by conventional statistical sources. Even excluding “glass wool” (used directly in large volumes for insulation purposes, etc), glass fibre accounts for 15% of all technical textiles fibre consumption, mostly as reinforcement for composites (GRP) and as wet-laid nonwovens. Glass competes with viscose solely within the Indutech application area (in specialist conveyor belts, battery separators/floppy disk liners, and abrasive backing cloths).

© 2003

2.7

area (in specialist conveyor belts, battery separators/floppy disk liners, and abrasive backing cloths). © 2003 2.7

2.2.5 Polymer/Fibre Type End-Use Consumption by Region

Exhibit 2.8 shows that the consumption of viscose in technical textiles is largely confined to three regions of the world, namely Western Europe, North America and North East Asia, who between them account for no less than 85% of world consumption, compared with 71%for all fibres.

Exhibit 2.8

World

End-Use

Consumption

of Technical

Textiles by

Polymer/Fibre

Types and

Region, 2000

(’000 tonnes)

   

Polymer/Fibre Type

 

TOTAL

 

Region

     

Other

 

Other

       
 

PES

Poly-

olefin

PA

synth

-etic

Viscose

Regen-

erated

Natural

In-

organic

‘000

Tonnes

%

Share

N.

America

987.3

1,047.7

210.2

37.7

108.5

95.0

462.0

1,235.5

4,183.9

25.0%

S.

America

232.4

211.0

133.6

5.4

18.7

37.3

156.9

51.6

846.8

5.1%

W. Europe

934.3

1,149.3

170.6

31.3

217.3

95.0

401.2

615.3

3,614.3

21.6%

E.

Europe

146.3

128.5

99.1

3.4

12.2

56.7

93.3

8.6

548.1

3.3%

S.

Asia

158.3

222.6

41.3

4.4

12.4

28.7

974.5

27.2

1,469.4

8.8%

N.

E. Asia

1,300.9

831.6

438.2

49.5

91.6

168.6

581.5

577.7

4,039.6

24.2%

S.E. Asia

136.6

206.5

75.6

2.8

9.6

20.3

535.7

49.9

1,037.0

6.2%

Rest of

                   

World

234.6

321.8

79.6

5.6

19.5

42.4

257.3

14.3

975.2

5.8%

Total

4,131.7

4,119.1

1,248.1

140.2

489.9

543.9

3,462.4

2,580.1

16,714.4

100.0%

% Share

24.7%

24.6%

7.5%

0.8%

2.9%

3.3%

20.7%

15.4%

100.0%

-

Source: DRA

The consumption of polyolefins is broadly similar to that of viscose in that Western demand accounts for more than half of global consumption. This contrasts with the consumption of polyester and polyamide, where North East Asia is the largest consumer, with North America and Western Europe being the second and third largest respective consumers.

2.2.6 Future Prospects for Viscose Fibre

The buoyant outlook for viscose fibre is largely the result of the high forecast growth rates for disposable nonwoven wipes, particularly within Medtech, but also within Hometech and Indutech. Indeed, the majority of high growth end-use products containing viscose are based on nonwoven fabrics.

These products are forecast to have high overall growth rates, in contrast to most of the fibre's more traditional woven and braided end-use markets, particularly in those country markets where viscose has a high market share. As a result, viscose is set to grow to 2010 at a faster rate than any other of the main polymer/fibre types used in technical textiles, as shown in Exhibit 2.9.

Exhibit 2.9

World End-Use

Consumption of

Technical

Textiles by

Selected

Polymer/Fibre

Type, 2000 and

2010

(‘000 tonnes)

© 2003

Polymer/Fibre Type

Year

CAGR

2000-2010 (%)

2000

2010

('000 tonnes)

('000 tonnes)

Viscose

490

890

6.2%

Polyethylene

352

567

4.9%

Inorganic

2,580

3,991

4.5%

Polypropylene

3,767

5,644

4.1%

Polyester

4,131

5,932

3.7%

Natural Fibres

3,336

4,185

2.3%

Polyamide

1,248

1,553

2.2%

Total

15,904

22,763

3.7%

Source: DRA

2.8

4,185 2.3% Polyamide 1,248 1,553 2.2% Total 15,904 22,763 3.7% Source: DRA 2.8

3.

VISCOSE END-USE PRODUCTS AND MARKETS

3.1 OUTLINE OF THE CHAPTER

The analysis of viscose consumption in technical textile markets in this Chapter has been drawn largely from the detailed Tables found in Chapter 4 of this report and aims to highlight some of the main conclusions which emerge from these Tables. There is a large amount of information within Chapter 4, and many different analyses are possible; the most obvious and revealing of these are reported on in this Chapter.

The analysis has been divided into 6 Sections:

3.2 Overall End-Use Consumption of Viscose

Identifies total consumption of viscose to 2010 in technical applications.

3.3 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Fibre Form (Yarn Type)

Analyses the overall split of viscose consumption by the eight main fibre forms.

3.4 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Application Area and End-Use Product

Shows the split of viscose consumption by the 12 Techtextil application areas and then provides numerical and written analyses of the products which make up each of these areas. This Section identifies products with the highest volumes and the fastest growth rates and those products where viscose is taking or losing market share relative to other fibres.

3.5 The Highest Volume and Fastest Growing Viscose End-Uses

Identifies the largest and fastest viscose end-use products and analyses to what extent growth in viscose consumption is attributable to increases in demand for end-use products and to changes in market share at the expense of other fibres.

3.6 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Region

Discusses the regional split of viscose consumption both overall and by each of the relevant fibre forms.

3.7 End-Use Consumption of Viscose by Fabric and Other Final Textile Product Type

Analyses the split of viscose consumption overall by the eight types of fabric and other final textile product types.

Where data has been drawn from Chapter 4 the specific Forecast Tables have been identified to enable the reader to see the detail on which the analysis is based.

© 2003

3.1

Forecast Tables have been identified to enable the reader to see the detail on which the

3.2 OVERALL END-USE CONSUMPTION OF VISCOSE

In 2000 the global consumption of viscose in technical textiles was nearly 490,000 tonnes. DRA forecasts that this volume will increase by an annual average of 6.2% in volume terms to reach almost 890,000 tonnes in 2010, as shown in Exhibit 3.1.

Exhibit 3.1

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles, 1995 - 2010 ('000 tonnes)

1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 '000 tonnes
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
'000 tonnes

1995 -

2000 2001

2002 2003

2004 2005 2006

Year

2007 2008

2009 2010

Source: DRA

Assuming a weighted average unit price of US$2.90/kg for viscose across the different forms in which it is supplied by the fibre industry, the volume of viscose consumed in the year 2000 equates to a value of US$1.4bn, increasing to US$2.6bn in the year 2010 (based on constant prices).

While many end-use sectors for viscose are still expanding, growth rates will continue to vary significantly between different regions and end-uses. Key factors in these variations include:

the maturing of some large volume products in which there is now little scope for innovation or product development

the maturing of some geographic markets where penetration is already high and where there is little opportunity to capture further market share

the fluctuating costs of raw materials and variations in costs among regions

the impact of fluctuations in both national and global economic activity on underlying demand trends in the various end-use market segments.

The volume forecasts in this report reflect all these factors, with the exception of polymer/fibre prices which are assumed to remain unchanged relative to each other over time (see Appendix 1).

© 2003

3.2

polymer/fibre prices which are assumed to remain unchanged relative to each other over time (see Appendix

3.3 END-USE CONSUMPTION OF VISCOSE BY FIBRE FORM (YARN TYPE)

Exhibit 3.2 describes the consumption of viscose by weight, split by fibre form (yarn type) in the year 2000. Unlike other man-made fibre types, viscose consumption is confined to a limited number of fibre forms: unspun staple fibre, spun staple yarn, textile (regular tenacity) multifilament and industrial (high tenacity) multifilament. It is not produced in the form of polymer, Bulked Continuous Filament (BCF), monofilament or tape/slit film yarns. These four polymer/fibre forms are shown at a zero level in the following two Exhibits and are not discussed further in the text or included in further Exhibits.

Exhibit 3.2

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Form, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

Tape Monofilament 0.0% 0.0% Polymer BCF 0.0% 0.0% HT multifilament 16.6% Textile multifilament 6.1% Spun
Tape
Monofilament
0.0%
0.0%
Polymer
BCF
0.0%
0.0%
HT multifilament
16.6%
Textile
multifilament
6.1%
Spun staple

6.6%

Staple fibre

70.7%

Source: DRA (see Table 4.1 for further detail).

Of the total volume of almost 490,000 tonnes of viscose consumed in technical textiles in the year 2000, the majority, more than 70%, was in the form of unspun staple fibre. Of this volume, almost 91% was used in nonwoven products such as wipes and filters; the remainder was used as unspun fibre in fibrefill and 'cotton wool'. As shown in Exhibit 3.3, below, the consumption of viscose in unspun staple fibre form is forecast to increase the most rapidly, growing at an average rate of 7.8% per annum to the year 2010, when it is forecast to account for almost 83% of total viscose fibre usage in technical products.

Exhibit 3.3

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Polymer/Fibre Form, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

© 2003

 

Viscose

Viscose

CAGR

Consumption,

Consumption,

2000-2010

Fibre Form

2000

2010

(%)

('000 tonnes)

('000 tonnes)

Staple Fibre

346.4

735.0

7.8%

Spun Staple

32.4

38.3

1.7%

Textile Multifilament

29.7

37.1

2.2%

HT Multifilament

81.4

79.4

(0.2)%

Total

489.9

889.8

6.1%

Source: DRA (see Table 4.1 for further detail).

3.3

81.4 79.4 (0.2)% Total 489.9 889.8 6.1% Source: DRA (see Table 4.1 for further detail). 3.3

Spun staple viscose yarns, which accounted for almost 7% of viscose consumption by weight in 2000, are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of only 1.7% until 2010. These yarns are used in a number of applications including woven and knitted bandages, abrasive backing-cloths and woven wipes.

In 2000, viscose multifilament yarns accounted for almost 23% of viscose consumed in technical applications; industrial high tenacity multifilaments (referred to as HT multifilament in this report) accounted for almost three-quarters of all multifilaments, and almost 17% of total viscose consumed in technical textiles. However, HT multifilament is forecast to decrease by an average of 0.2% per annum to the year 2010 due to a shift towards polyester and polyamide, most notably in tyre cord. In contrast, the consumption of regular tenacity multifilament (referred to as textile multifilament in this report) is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 2.2% over the same period.

3.4 END-USE CONSUMPTION OF VISCOSE BY APPLICATION AREA AND END-USE PRODUCT

3.4.1 Techtextil Application Areas

Exhibit 3.4, below, provides the split of global viscose consumption in technical textiles (in volume terms) by application area in the year 2000 (Oekotech products appear in other application areas). Viscose consumption is heavily concentrated in five of the 11 Techtextil application areas: Medtech; Indutech; Mobiltech; Hometech and Clothtech. Together these five application areas accounted for over 99% of consumption. There was no discernible viscose consumption in four of the categories: Agrotech; Buildtech; Geotech and Packtech.

Exhibit 3.4

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Application Area, 2000 (% split in Volume Terms)

Agrotech Packtech Clothtech Buildtech Sporttech 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Geotech 0.5% 0.0% Protech 0.2% Hometech
Agrotech
Packtech
Clothtech
Buildtech
Sporttech
0.0%
0.0%
8.6%
0.0%
Geotech
0.5%
0.0%
Protech
0.2%
Hometech
Mobiltech
11.1%
15.3%
Indutech
Medtech
23.8%
40.5%

Source: DRA (see Table 4.4 for further detail).

Exhibit 3.5 compares the consumption of viscose by application area in 2000 and 2010; it is apparent that Medtech, Indutech and Hometech present the best opportunities for growth for viscose. In each case this is predominantly the result of the high growth forecast for nonwoven wipes.

© 2003

3.4

for viscose. In each case this is predominantly the result of the high growth forecast for

Exhibit 3.5

World End-Use Consumption of Viscose in Technical Textiles by Application Area, 2000 and 2010 ('000 tonnes)

450 400 350 300 250 2000 200 2010 150 100 50 0 Agrotech Buildtech Clothtech
450
400
350
300
250
2000
200
2010
150
100
50
0
Agrotech
Buildtech
Clothtech
Geotech
Hometech
Indutech
Medtech
Mobiltech
Packtech
Protech
Sporttech
'000 tonnes

Application Area

Source: DRA (see Table 4.4 for further detail).

Viscose consumption in Hometech is forecast to grow at an average of 8.1% per annum between 2000 and 2010. Medtech is forecast to grow at an average of 7.5%, thereby increasing its share of viscose consumption overall from 40% in 2000 to 46% in 2010. Indutech is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 7% over the same period.

The consumption of viscose in the Mobiltech application area is forecast to decrease by an average of 0.5% per annum partly as a result of a loss of market share to polyester and polyamide in tyre cords and transmission belts, but also as a result of negative growth in car tyre cord overall, as textile usage per tyre declines and tyre life is extended.

The following Section of the report discusses the application areas in descending order of viscose consumption in 2000.

3.4.2 Medtech: Medical and Hygiene Products

The scope of Medtech embraces all those textile materials used in health and hygiene applications in both consumer and medical markets. Medtech is by far the biggest consumer of viscose fibres in technical textile applications, largely as a result of the fibre's highly absorbent and biodegradable nature.

Wipes form a very important part of viscose consumed in the Medtech category, accounting for almost half of the volume consumed in 2000, as shown in Exhibit 3.6, below.

© 2003

3.5

Medtech category, accounting for almost half of the volume c onsumed in 2000, as shown in

Exhibit 3.6

Viscose Medtech

Products:

World End-Use

Consumption and

Market Share,

2000

Products using

Total Market Size,

Viscose

Viscose Consumption, 2000

Viscose in

2000

share, 2000

'000 tonnes

Share of total (%)

Medtech

('000 tonnes)

(%)

Wipes

190.4

51.3%

97.6

49.2%

Cotton wool

188.7

16.5%

31.1

15.7%

Nonwoven

93.8

25.0%

23.4

11.8%

gowns, drapes

Coverstock

893.7

2.0%

17.9

9.0%

Woundcare

101.3

15.7%

15.9

8.0%

woven, knitted

Sterile

29.0

25.0%

7.2

3.6%

packaging

Woundcare,

21.5

25.0%

5.4

2.7%

nonwoven

Total

1,518.4

13.1%

198.5

100.0%

Source: DRA, taken from Table 4.5.

As can be seen from Exhibit 3.7, wipes are also the fastest growing end-use product within Medtech, with an annual average growth rate of 10.7%. The growth of wipes relative to other products within this application area results in an increase in their share of viscose consumption within Medtech from almost half to around two-thirds by 2010.

Exhibit 3.7

Viscose Medtech

Products:

World End-Use Consumption, 2000 and 2010, ranked by Growth Rate

© 2003

Products using

Viscose Consumption,

Viscose Consumption,

Viscose

Viscose in

2000

2010

CAGR

Medtech

'000 tonnes

Share of

'000 tonnes

Share of

2000-2010

total (%)

total (%)

(%)

Wipes

97.6

49.2%

269.8

66.2%

10.7%

Woundcare,

5.4

2.7%

11.6

2.8%

8.0%

nonwoven