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THE TARRANCE GROUP

www.tarrance.com

MEMORANDUM
TO:

JUSTIN FAREED FOR U.S. CONGRESS

NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE

FROM:

BRIAN C. TRINGALI
MICHAEL WIENER

RE:

LATEST SURVEY IN CALIFORNIAS 24TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

DATE:

SEPTEMBER 20, 2016

_____________________________________________________________________________________
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from our most recent survey of voters in
Californias Twenty-fourth Congressional District. The Tarrance Group was retained by Justin Fareed for U.S.
Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee to conduct a telephone survey of N=400
voters across the district. The margin of error for a random sample of this type is +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. All
interviews were conducted with a live interviewer within the United States. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of the
interviews were completed among cell phones. Responses were gathered September 17-19, 2016.
Since our previous survey in July, the contest to replace Lois Capps has remained largely stable with Carbajal
losing a point on his ballot position. Overall, Fareed remains at 46% while Carbajal has dropped to 43%, but turnout
projections give Fareed a 4-point edge if the election were held today. Meanwhile, Carbajals image has
deteriorated to the point of being more negative than positive. At the same time, Justin Fareeds image has remained
relatively undamaged and in a positive posture.
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Justin Fareed image

Aware
Favorable
Unfavorable
Salud Carbajal image
Aware
Favorable
Unfavorable
Congressional ballot
Justin Fareed
Undecided
Salud Carbajal

July 12
%

Sept. 19
%

78
41
23

78
39
27

83
43
28

83
35
36

46
10
44

46
11
43

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