Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
PROJECT
On
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOVEMENT
SUBMITTED BY
POOJA P. ROY
ROLL NO-45(ACCOUNTING)
(M.COM-1, SEM-II)
PROJECT GUIDE
Mrs. SHALU PARASHAR
SUBMITTED TO
UNIVERSITY OF MUMBAI
RAJASTHANI SAMMELAINS
Ghanshyamdas Saraf College
Of Arts & Commerce
Affiliated to University of Mumbai
Reaccredated by NAAC with A Grade
S.V. Road, Malad (W)
Mumbai - 400064.
A.Y. 2015-2016
RAJASTHANI SAMMELANS
Ghanshyamdas Saraf College
Of (Arts & Commerce)
Affiliated to University of Mumbai
Reaccredated by NAAC with A Grade
S.V. Road, Malad (W)
Mumbai - 400064.
CERTIFICATE
I Prof.Mrs. SHALU PARASHAR hereby certify that POOJA P.ROY a student
of Ghanshyamdas Saraf College of Arts & Commerce, (M.COM-1, Sem-II)
has completed Project on INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOVEMENT in the
Academic Year 2015-2016 .
Thus information
Knowledge.
Project Guide:
Principal:
Date:
External Examiner :
Date:
College Seal:
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I take this opportunity to thank the UNIVERSITY OF MUMBAI for giving
me a chance to do this project.
I express my sincere gratitude to the principal Dr. Sujata Karmarkar, chief
Co-ordinator Dr. Lipi Mukherjee Guide Mrs.Shalu parashar , teaching faculty
and our librarian for their constant support and helping for completing the
project.
I am also grateful to my friends for giving me moral support during the
course of my project work. Lastly, I would like to thank each and every
person who helped me in completing the project successfully specially MY
PARENTS.
Student Signature
DECLARATION
Date:
Signature of Student
INDEX
SR.No
CHAPTER NAME
Chapter-1
Executive summary
Objective of the study
Research methodology
Limitation of the study
Chapter-2
Page No
1-6
7-8
Abstract
International capital movement
Types or sources
Foreign Direct Investment
Portfolio Investment
Chapter-3
Official Flows
External Commercial Borrowings
Determinants of International Capital Flows
Important Determinants of International Capital
Movement
9-26
Chapter-4
27-28
29-31
Bibliography
32
CHAPTER-1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The rapid growth in international capital flows has outpaced theoretical efforts to model the
markets that intermediate these flows. The objective of this Network is to improve understanding
of the operation of international capital markets and the implications for macroeconomic
behaviour and the formation of financial regulation and taxation policies.
Each partner in the project used their expertise to provide training programmes for the Young
Researchers. This has taken the form of active participation in seminars and workshops, and
participation in summer schools. In addition, partner institutions have been able to attract topclass visiting scholars, who have been teaching specialised courses on selected topics. Young
Researchers based at the partner institutions have made strong contributions to the overall
research effort.
In its fourth year, the Networks research agenda has advanced according to plan. The research
results achieved in the Networks fourth year are discussed in detail below, but are summarised
briefly here.
The Network made very good progress in all four areas of its programme. The single biggest area
of activity has been in developing new open-economy macroeconomic models that take better
account of the impact of international capital flows and international financial integration on
macroeconomic fluctuations and the properties of alternative macroeconomic models. The papers
produced by this network in this area are having a major global impact in this field, as evidenced
by success in publications and representation in major invited conferences.
The analysis of international capital flows has also been a highly productive area. A good signal
of the Networks success in this area was that Philip Lane (scientific coordinator of the Network)
was invited to be a primary contributor on this topic for the European Commissions Annual
Economic Report (November 2003). Network members were also invited to speak on this topic
as the International Monetary Funds Annual Research Conference.
Work on international tax problems (a central policy issue in an era of greater international
capital mobility) has also continued at a high level, with the EPRU, CentER and Tel Aviv teams
all working on major projects in this area. Finally, the network has also made contributions on
international systemic issues.
B.Research Methodology:
Methodology is the systematic, theoretical analysis of the methods applied to a field of study. It
comprises the theoretical analysis of the body of methods and principles associated with a branch
of knowledge. Typically, it encompasses concepts such as paradigm, theoretical model, phases
and quantitative or qualitative techniques.
1.
2.
Secondary research is
research. The method of writing secondary research is to collect primary research that is
relevant to a writing topic and interpret what the primary research found. For instance,
secondary research often takes the form of the results from two or more primary research
articles and explains what the two separate findings are telling us. Or, the author may
have a specific topic to write about and will find many pieces of primary research and use
them as information in their next article or textbook chapter.
I am adopting secondary method because primary research is very vast, difficult and time
consuming. Thats why I am selecting secondary method. Reference is use as follows
1. Books
2. Wikipedia
CHAPTER - 2
Abstract:
International capital movement have played an important role in the economic development of
several countries. They provide an outlet for saving for the lending countries which helps to
smooth out business cycles and lead to a more stable pattern of economic growth. On the other
hand, they help to finance development of under-developed countries. They also help to ease the
balance of payments problems of developing economies. Thus, international capital movement
have an important role to play in the balance of payments adjustments mechanism.
As compared to developed countries of the world, the developing countries suffering from
scarcity of capital and poor technology. Therefore, they rely on international capital floes to
finance their investment opportunities and hence, to raise income and payment.
Capital movement can be classified by instrument into debt or equity and by maturity into shortterm and long-terms.
Capital movement can be divided in to short-term and long-terms flows. Depending upon the
nature of credit instruments involved.
A capital movement is short-term if it is embodied in a credit instruments of less than a years
maturity. If the instruments has duration of more than a year or consist of the title to ownership,
such as the share of stock or a deed to property, the capital movement is long-term.
4.1 SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENT:They can take place through changes in claims of domestics residents on foreign residents or in
liabilities of domestics residents owed to foreign residents. Short-term capital instruments are
demand deposits, bills, overdraft, commercial and financial papers and acceptances, loan and
commercial banks credits, and items in the process of collection. They are mostly speculative in
nature. Short-terms capital movements may take the form of hot money movements which refers
to capital movements to take advantages of international difference in interest rate.
4.2 LONG-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS:They are generally for long-term investments. They may be further classified in to direct
investment, portfolio investment and assistance from governments and institutions.
DEFINATION
Broadly, foreign direct investment includes "mergers and acquisitions, building new facilities,
reinvesting profits earned from overseas operations and intra company loans". In a narrow sense,
foreign direct investment refers just to building new facilities. The numerical FDI figures based
on varied definitions are not easily comparable.
As a part of the national accounts of a country, and in regard to the GDP equation Y=C+I+G+(XM)[Consumption + Domestic investment + Government spending +(eXports - iMports], I is
investment plus foreign investment, FDI is defined as the net inflows of investment (inflow
minus outflow) to acquire a lasting management interest (10 percent or more of voting stock) in
an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor.FDI is the sum of equity
capital, other long-term capital, and short-term capital as shown the balance of payments. FDI
usually involves participation in management, joint-venture, transfer of technology and
expertise.
There
are
two
types
of
FDI:
inward
and
outward,
resulting
in
a net FDI inflow (positive or negative) and "stock of foreign direct investment", which is the
cumulative number for a given period. Direct investment excludes investment through purchase
of shares. FDI is one example of international factor movements.
TYPES OF FDI:
1. Horizontal FDI arises when a firm duplicates its home country-based activities at the
same value chain stage in a host country through FDI.
2. Platform FDI Foreign direct investment from a source country into a destination country
for the purpose of exporting to a third country.
3. Vertical FDI takes place when a firm through FDI moves upstream or downstream in
different value chains i.e., when firms perform value-adding activities stage by stage in a
vertical fashion in a host country.
Horizontal FDI decreases international trade as the product of them is usually aimed at host
country; the two other types generally act as a stimulus for it.
METHODS:
The foreign direct investor may acquire voting power of an enterprise in an economy through
any of the following methods:
FORMS OF FDI:
tax holidays
preferential tariffs
Bonded Warehouses
Maquiladoras
infrastructure subsidies
R&D support
DEVELOPING WORLD
A 2010 meta-analysis of the effects of foreign direct investment on local firms in developing and
transition countries suggests that foreign investment robustly increases local productivity
growth. The Commitment to Development Index ranks the "development-friendliness" of rich
country investment policies.
CHINA
FDI in China, also known as RFDI (renminbi foreign direct investment), has increased
considerably in the last decade, reaching $59.1 billion in the first six months of 2012, making
China the largest recipient of foreign direct investment and topping the United States which had
$57.4 billion of FDI.
During the global financial crisis FDI fell by over one-third in 2009 but rebounded in 2010.
INDIA
Foreign investment was introduced in 1991 under Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA),
driven by then finance minister Manmohan Singh. As Singh subsequently became the prime
minister, this has been one of his top political problems, even in the current times. India
disallowed overseas corporate bodies (OCB) to invest in India. India imposes cap on equity
holding by foreign investors in various sectors, current FDI limit in aviation sector is maximum
49%.
Starting from a baseline of less than $1 billion in 1990, a 2012 UNCTAD survey projected India
as the second most important FDI destination (after China) for transnational corporations during
20102012. As per the data, the sectors that attracted higher inflows were services,
telecommunication, construction activities and computer software and hardware. Mauritius,
Singapore, US and UK were among the leading sources of FDI. Based on UNCTAD data FDI
flows were $10.4 billion, a drop of 43% from the first half of the last year.
UNITED STATES
Broadly speaking, the U.S. has a fundamentally 'open economy' and low barriers to foreign direct
investment.U.S. FDI totalled $194 billion in 2010. 84% of FDI in the U.S. in 2010 came from or
through eight countries: Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Japan, France, Germany,
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Canada. A 2008 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco indicated that foreigners hold greater shares of their investment portfolios in the
United States if their own countries have less developed financial markets, an effect whose
magnitude decreases with income per capita. Countries with fewer capital controls and greater
trade with the United States also invest more in U.S. equity and bond markets.
White House data reported in July 1991 found that a total of 5.7 million workers were employed
at facilities highly dependent on foreign direct investors. Thus, about 13% of the American
manufacturing workforce depended on such investments. The average pay of said jobs was found
as around $70,000 per worker, over 30% higher than the average pay across the entire U.S.
workforce.
President Barack Obama said in 2012, "In a global economy, the United States faces increasing
competition for the jobs and industries of the future. Taking steps to ensure that we remain the
destination of choice for investors around the world will help us win that competition and bring
prosperity to our people."
In September 2013, the United States House of Representatives voted to pass the Global
Investment in American Jobs Act of 2013 (H.R. 2052; 113th Congress), a bill would which direct
the United States Department of Commerce to "conduct a review of the global competitiveness
of the United States in attracting foreign direct investment."Supporters of the bill argued that
increased foreign direct investment would help job creation in the United States.
Portfolio Investment:
A portfolio investment is a passive investment in securities, none which entails in active
management or control of the securities' issued by the investor. Portfolio investment is an
investment made by an investor who is not particularly interested in involvement in
the management of a company.
It is also the investment in securities that is intended for financial gain only and does not create
a controlling interest in or effective management control over an enterprise.
It includes investment in an assortment or range of securities, or other types of investment
vehicles, to spread the risk of possible loss due to below expectations performance of one or a
few of them.
portfolio investment is a mode of investment in the securities and bond of a company which
helps the company to bring up more sources of finance and to strengthen it's financial adequacy.
it enables to improve the creditworthiness of the company in the mind of the general public and
they are being prompted to invest more and earn in accordance with it.
DEFINATION
The term portfolio refers to any collection of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and cash.
Portfolios may be held by individual investors and/or managed by financial professionals, hedge
funds, banks and other financial institutions. It is a generally accepted principle that a portfolio is
designed according to the investor's risk tolerance, time frame and investment objectives.
The monetary value of each asset may influence the risk/reward ratio of the portfolio and is
referred to as the asset allocation of the portfolio. When determining a proper asset allocation
one aims at maximizing the expected return and minimizing the risk. This is an example of
a multi-objective optimization problem: more "efficient solutions" are available and the preferred
solution must be selected by considering a tradeoff between risk and return. In particular, a
portfolio A is dominated by another portfolio A' if A' has a greater expected gain and a lesser risk
than A. If no portfolio dominates A, A is a Pareto-optimal portfolio. The set of Pareto-optimal
returns and risks is called the Pareto Efficient Frontier for the Markowitz Portfolio selection
problem.
DESCRIPTION
There are many types of portfolios including the Market portfolio and the Zero-Investment
Portfolio. A portfolio's asset allocation may be managed utilizing any of the following
investment approaches and principles: equally-weighting, capitalization-weighting, priceweighting, Risk
parity, Capital
asset
pricing
(or
model, Arbitrage
Index)
pricing
model, Value
at
Official Flows:
OFFICIAL FLOWS:
They are shown as external assistance, i.e. grants and loans from bilateral and multilateral flows.
Long-term capital movements can also take the form of government loan grants and loans from
international financial institutions like IBRD, IDA, etc. Sometimes government of advanced
countries may gives loans to financial project in a developing country. These are known as
bilateral loans. International financial institution like world bank, Asian developing bank, etc.
Also give financial assistance to developing countries. These loans are called multilateral loans.
Thus, governments and international institutions play an important role in international capital
movement.
FOREIGN AID:
A part of the foreign capital is received on concessional term and it is known as external
assistance and foreign aids. It may be received by way of loans and grants. Grants are in a forms
of out right gift which do not have to be repaid. Loan qualify as aid only to the extent that they
bear a concessional rate of interest and have longer maturity period than commercial loans.
Foreign aids has mostly been given by foreign governments and international finantial
institutions like IMF, WORLD BANK, ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK AND SO ON.
Official flow were about 75-80 percent of capital flow till 1991. By 1994, this has come down to
about 20 percent and has further fallen to below 5 percent by late 1990s.
CHAPTER - 3
External Commercial Borrowing:
An external commercial borrowing (ECB) is an instrument used in India to facilitate the access
to foreign money by Indian corporations and PSUs (public sector undertakings). ECBs include
commercial loans, buyers' credit, suppliers' credit, securitised instruments such as floating
rate notes and fixed rate bonds etc., credit from official export credit agencies and commercial
borrowings from the private sector window of multilateral financial Institutions such
as International Finance Corporation (Washington), ADB, AFIC, CDC, etc. ECBs cannot be used
for investment in stock market or speculation in real estate. The DEA (Department of Economic
Affairs), Ministry of Finance, Government of India along with Reserve Bank of India, monitors
and regulates ECB guidelines and policies. For infrastructure and Greenfield projects, funding up
to 50% (through ECB) is allowed. In telecom sector too, up to 50% funding through ECBs is
allowed. Recently Government of India has increased limits on RBI to up to $40 billion and
allowed
borrowings
in
Chinese
currency
yuan.
Borrowers can use 25 per cent of the ECB to repay rupee debt and the remaining 75 per cent
should be used for new projects. A borrower cannot refinance its existing rupee loan through
ECB. The money raised through ECB is cheaper given near-zero interest rates in the US and
Europe, Indian companies can repay their existing expensive loans from that.
The ministry has not put any ceiling on individual companies for using renminbi as currency for
ECB. Even though the overall limit for permitting it under ECB is only $1 billion, the officials
denied possibilities of a single company using the entire amount as it would come under
approval route.
The cost of borrowing in Renminbi is far less, said a finance ministry official. Companies go
for it as it is on easier terms. We are getting their (Chinas) money cheap.
The limit for automatic approval has also been increased from $100 million to $200 million for
the services sector (hospitals, tourism) and from $5 million to $10 million for non-government
organisations and microfinance institutions. The decisions will come into effect through a
notification by RBI.
concessions and business strategy of the entity from which the capital flow originates. The
literature usually distinguishes between two broad sets of factors affecting capital movements.
COUNTRY-SPECIFIC PULL FACTORS:They reflects domestic opportunity and risk. The evidence on this issue highlights that PULL OR
DOMESTIC FACTORS operating at project and country levels, reflects essentially the improved
policies that increase the long run expected returns or reduced the perceived risk on real
domestic investments. These includes measures that increase the openness of the domestic
financial market to foreign investors; liberalisation of FDI; credible structural or macroeconomic
policies; sustainable debt and debt service reduced ensuring timely repayments; stabilisations
policies that affect the aggregate efficiency of resource allocation; policies that affect the level of
domestics absorption relative to income; and the ability of the economy to absorb shocks from
changes in international terms of trade. Pull factors like rebuts economic reforms in emerging
economies are internal to an economy.
GLOBAL OR PUSH FACTORS:They are stimulus provided by the decline of US interest rate that has taken place in recent years.
FDI may be attracted by the opportunity to use local raw material or employ a local labour force
that are relatively cheap. The PUSH OR EXOGENOUS FACTORS includes lower foreign
interest rates, recession abroad and herd mentality in international capital markets. Push
factorsare external to an economy and include parameters like low interest rates abundant
liquidity, slow growth, or lack of investment opportunities in advanced economies.
Push and Pull factors explains international capital flows. The Pull factors determine the
geographic distribution of the flows amongst the recipient economies.
RATE OF INTEREST:
An important factors which has a bearing on the international capital movements is differences in
the rate of interest. According to L.M.Bhole , Like population migration, capital migration can
be and has been explained in terms of the PULL and PUSH FACTORS. As far as the recent
increase in capital flows is concerned, greater weight has to be given to the push factors,
particularly the falling interest rates in the US and some other countries.
INTEGRATION OF FINANCIAL AND OTHER MARKETS:The various forms of foreign capital movements depends upon the degree of openness of the
financial and other markets and the extent of their international integration. In the recent years
most of the countries have adopted the policy of deregulation, liberalisation, privatisation and
structural adjustments. They have also dismantled various control related to trade, foreign
exchange, foreign investment, ownership and capital flows. All these changes have contributed
to recent increase in capital flows.
Rapid improvements in technologies for collecting, processing, and disseminating information,
along with the opening of domestic financial markets, the liberalisation of capital account
transactions, and increased private savings for retirements have stimulated financial innovation
and created a larger pool of internationally mobile capital. At the same time, consolidation in the
global banking industry and competition from non-bank financial institution [ including mutual
funds ] have lured new players to the international financial area. These trends accelerated in the
1990s, expanding investments opportunities for saver and offering borrowers a wide array of
sources of capital. The same trends are expected to continue into the 21st century.
GROWING POOL INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CAPITAL:Over the last two decades, the financial markets of leading industrial countries have transformed
into a global financial system, permitting larger amounts of capital to be allocated not only to
theirs economies, but also to developing economies. Firm in developing and industrial countries
a like are raising more funds from international securities markets. Multinational corporations
are registering their equity on more than one countrys stock exchange and raising funds from
financial markets in different economies. Mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance
companies and other investments and asset managers now compete with banks for national
savings. Even though this phenomenon has been confined so far primarily to developed
economies, it has started to spread to some developing countries too. Institutional investors have
taken advantages of the easing of restrictions in many developed countries to diversify their
portfolios internationally, enlarging the pool of financial capital potentially available to
developing economies. According to world development report of 1999-2000, in 1995 these
investors controlled 20trillion dollars, 1980 of which only 2 percent was invested abroad. Thus,
there was a tenfold increase in the funds and a fortyfold increase investments abroad.
capital account convertibility as part of wide-ranging gradual economic reform program that
includes measuring to strengthen the financial sector.
GOVERNMENT POLICIES:Policies of governments with respect to privatisation, foreign investment, foreign exchange,
liberalisation, taxation, etc. Are like to influence the capital inflows. If the governments adopt a
policy of liberalisation, deregulation and dismantling of control related to investments as being
undertaken in India since 1991 it will encourage foreign capital inflows to the countries.
facilities,
availability
of
skilled
labour, advances
in
computer
and
telecommunication technologies, etc. Will influence private capital investment into the country.
Labour policies will also have a bearing on the foreign investments. The market potential, i.e. the
ability of the market to absorb the whole range of new products, is also likely to influence the
inflow of foreign capital.
CREDIT RATING:The credit rating and credit standing of nation, which depend on economic, political and social
stability, also influence foreign capital flows.
CHAPTER - 4
Role Of Foreign Capital
Foreign Capital had played an important role in the early stages of industrialisation of most of
the advanced countries of today like countries of Europe and North America. There is a general
view that foreign capital, if property diverted and utilised, can assist economic development of
developing countries. These countries need resources to finance investment in health, education,
infrastructure and so on. It can supplement a countrys domestic saving effort and foreign
exchange earnings.
A number of studies have confirmed that international capital flows can contribute significantly
to promotr groth in developing countries by augmenting domestic savings, reducing cost of
capital, transferring technology, developing domestic financial sector and fostering human
capital formation. Foreign capital can contribute to economics development of developing
countries in following ways:
Economic development depends on , among other things, capital formation. The domestic capital
formation is inadequate in LDCs. The foreign capital can supplements the domestic resources to
achieve the critical minimum investment to break the vicious circle of loe income-low savinglow investment. If more domestic capital is to be created by countrys own efforts, resources will
have to be diverted from the production of goods requirements for current consumption. This
may lead to a cut in present living standards. Thus, foreign capital can help to supplement the
domestic capital.
ACCELERATES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:Foreign capital helps to accelerate the pace of economies development by faciliting imports of
capital goods, technical know-how and other imports which are required for carrying out
development programmes.
IMPROVE TRADE BALANCE:Foreign capital inflow may help to increase a countrys exports and reduced the imports
requirements if such capital flows into export oriented and import competing industries.
REALISATION OF EXTERNAL ECONOMIES:If the foreign capital is allowed to flow into the development of infrastructure it may lead to
realisation of external economies which may stimulate domestic investments in the country.
INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT:If foreign capital flow into real sectors in the form of direct investments it helps toi increase
productivity, income and employment in the economy.
Inflow of foreign capital, especially the short-term, may be able to provide a breathing space to a
deficit country to cover the deficit until a complete adjustments is achieved to correct the balance
of payments deficit,. However, such capital movement should be seen as a temporary
phenomenon.
ECONOMIC GROWTH:Capital flow and economic growth are positively related to each other. High surge of capital flow
influences the domestic saving, investments and productivity of the country. Impacts of
international capital flows on economic growth during post liberalisation into India are very
significant. It is argued that capital inflow influences growth and growth influences capital flows.
International capital flows make a direct contribution to economic growth. The potential benefits
from the flows are realized from improving productivity. Globalisation allows capital to move to
attractive destination and it can fuel higher growth.
Capital flow affects the range of economic variable such as exchange rate, interest rate, foreign
exchange reserve, domestic monetary condition and financial system in the country. Capital
inflow induces real exchange rate appreciation, stock markets and real estate boom, and
monitory expansion. Appreciation of exchange rate can lead to loss of competitiveness. Inflow of
foreign capital has a significant impact on domestic money supply and stock market growth,
liquidity and volatility.
INFLATION:Larger capital flows can spark off inflation due to its impact of monetary expansion.
TRIGGER BUBBLES:Capital inflow may trigger bubbles in asset market and stock market.
VOLATILITY:Portfolios flows are likely to render the financial market more volatile through increase linkage
between the domestic and foreign financial markets. Capital flows expose the potential
vulnerability of the economy to sudden withdrawals of foreign investor from the financial
market, which will affect liquidity and contribute to financial market volatility.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS:Foreign direct investment inflow tend to worsen the current account in the short run. The ongterm effects on the balance of payments depends, among other things, on the operating
characteristics of FDI enterprises, notably their export propensity, the extent to which they rely
on imports inputs, including technology imports, and on the volume of profit-repatriation. Of
course, there are indirect effect too. Multinationals can conceivably increase the export
propensity of domestic firms through spill over effects. Further, if domestic production by
multinational substitutes for previously imported goods, FDI can reduce the total import.
Foreign capital may give raise to serious problems in the recent countries.It has been
recognised that sudden and large surges in capital flows cause several problems. Large capital
flows could push up monetary aggregates, engender inflationary pressures, destabilise exchange
rates, exacerbate the current account position, adversely affect the domestic financial sector and
distrupt domestic growth trajectories if and when such flow get reversed or drastically reduced.
Some of the drawbacks associated with international capital flows are discussed below.
DESTABILISE THE ECONOMIES:Since the international capital flows are generally unstable, uncertain, unsustainable and quickly
reversible they have a tendency to destabilise the economies of recipient countries. The volume,
timing and composition of capital flow are uncertain. Changes in internal factors such as loss of
credit worthiness, etc. May tend to stop the inflows or even lead to outflows. The inflow may
tend to increase the money supply and lead to domestic inflation. When the capital inflows are
reversed there may be rise in interest rates, fall in liquidity, depreciation of currency, etc. All of
this may leads to serious balance of payments crisis.
HIGHLY VOLATILE IN NATURE:International capital flows are inherently unsustainable, volatile and unstable in nature. They are
subject to external shocks and internal policies. This increase instability in the recipient
countries.
HIGH COST OF FOREIGN CAPITAL:foreign currency borrowing may imply a lot of uncertainties due to floating interest rates.There
are many non-economics cost associated with foreign capital such as problems related to foreign
ownership and control, dumping of outdated technology, loss of autonomy of domestic policies
dependence, and so on. Foreign equity capital also gives rise to drain of resources in the form of
dividends and so on. Foreign borrowing give rise to the problem of debt trap.
INAPPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY:the technologies brought in by the foreign capital may not be adaptable to the consumption
needs, size of domestic market, availability of resources, stage of economic development in the
country and so on.
it become a clear from above analysis that undue dependence on foreign capital of whatever type
[ i.e. equity, debt, short-term and long-term capital ] is bound to create large number of harmful
consequences in the recipient countries.
CHAPTER - 5
Foreign Capital Flows To Developing And Emerging Economies:
Gross capital inflow at global level have increased substantially since the late 1980s. Net capital
flows to developing countries increased sharply during early 1990s and reached a peak at us 298
billion dollar in 1997. Under recent global crisis it has experienced a sharp decline.
THE TRENDS IN PAST:in the past world war 2 period upto the 1970s, international capital flows were primarily confined
among industrial economics. Net capital inflows towards developing countries started picking up
in the early 1970s. In the aftermath of the 1 st oil price shock. Such flows were mainly debt flows
in the forms of syndicated banks leading. This phase continued unabated until the early countries
increase significantly- at a compound annual rate of 24 percent until the Latin American debt
crisis of 1982 Hurst the bubble. These led to a considerable slowdown in capital flow particularly
in respects of commercial bank leading to developing countries. Between 1983 and 1989, capital
flows decline to less that a third of their level in 1977-82.
With resending commercial bank lending, foreign direct investment inflows to developing
countries started picking up in the early 1980s. The quantum of FDI, however, continued to
remain lower that ebt flow. By the end of the 1980s, direct investment inflows to developing
countries were only one-eight of the flow to developed countries, while portfolio flows to
developing countries were virtually non-existent. Net FDI inflows toward developing countries,
however, increased at a sustained and high pace between 1987 and 1997. In 1994, these flows
surpassed net debt flow for the 1st time . Net external debt flow as well as inflows in the form of
portfolio capital also gathered momentum in the early 1990s.
CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE:The pattern of foreign capital flows into developing countries and economies in transition has
changed in the 1990s unlike most of the 1980s, when foreign capital follow to developing
countries and economies were strongly depressed because of the external debt crisis. The 1 st half
of the 1990s had been characterised by more than a doubling of the inflow of external capital
into developing economies. It has increased from us 86.6 billion dollar in 1990 to us 277.3
billion dollar in 1995 and thereafter it has fallen to us 159.6 billion dollar in 2002. The increase
in net total foreign capital inflow has-been accompanies by substantial changes in their structure.
The most striking structural change is that virtually all the net increased in financial flow has
come from private flow.
FLOWS TO EMERGING MARKETS:Among the developing country some are termed as Emerging Market Economies. They are those
developing countries which carry distinct features and are more developed than the rest. Such
economies are featured as showcases for high economic performance and quickly labelled [ by
the late 1980s ] as emerging market economies [ EMEs ]. The world market in the above label
was given emphasis for the preference of the identified countries to be market oriented in their
policy pursuit.
The composition of flow in respect of emerging markets economies also altered significantly,
with private flow exceeding official flows by the end of the 1980s. Furthermore, while bank
lending was the major components of capital flows to emerging markets in the 1970s. Equity and
bond investors become dominant in starting in the early 1990s. Portfolio investment exceeded
bank lending in eight years of the last decades. The range of investors purchasing emerging
market securities broadened. Specialised investors such as hedge funds and mutual funds
accounted for a bulk of portfolio inflow up to mid-1990s. In the subsequent years, pension
funds, insurance companies and other institutional investors increased their presence in emerging
markets. Although portfolio flow became important, it was FDI which accounted for the bulk of
private capital flows to emerging markets economies witness a six-fold jump between 1990
and 1997. International bank lending to developing countries also increased sharply during this
period, and was most pronounced in Asia, followed by Eastern Europe and Latin America. Much
of the increasing in bank lending was in the form of short-terms claims, particularly on Asia.
VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL FLOWS:The volatility and possibility of reversal associated with capital flow were brought out quite
strikingly by the East Asian and the subsequent financial crisis. In the late 1990s, capital flows to
developing countries received several shocks first from the Asian crisis of 1997-98, then by the
turmoil in global fixed income markets, more recently by the collapse of the argentine currency
board peg in 2001 and spate of corporate failures and accounting irregularities in the us in 2002.
Net flow to developing countries decline in the immediate aftermath of East Asian finance crisis.
The fall was particularly sharp in the form of bank lending and bonds, reflecting uncertainty and
risk aversion. On the other hand FDI inflows to EMEs [ emerging market economics ] were
relatively stable over the period 1997-2002. This highlights the stabilising feature of FDI inflows
vis-a-vis other private capital flows [ both debts and equity ]
In 2000, there was, in fact, a net out flows from developing countries on account of debt flows.
In 2002, net capital flows fell again, remaining far below the 1997 peak due to the global
economic slowdown and a series of accounting and corporate failure which severely undermined
investors confidence. Global FDI inflows into developing countries, fell by 41percent in 2001,
followed by the decline of another 20percent in 2002. This was attributable to weak economic
growth, large sell-offs in equity markets, lower corporate profits, slowdown in corporate
restructuring and a plunge in cross-border mergers and acquisitions. The usa and the uk
accounted more than half of the decline.
FLOWING TO SMALL GROUP OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:A small group of developing countries has consistently attracted most foreign investment. Brazil,
Indonesia, ,Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand have been among the top 12 recipients in each of the
past three decades. China [ including honkong ] joined this group in 1990 and India in the late
1990s.
RECENT TRENDS IN CAPITAL FLOWS TO EMERGING MARKETS:During the financial crisis, capital flows to emerging markets plummeted as investors fled riskier
markets fo us and European safe heavens. As emerging market have recovered, many of them
faster than advanced economies, investors are moving capital back to developing economies.
However, flow remaining significantly depressed relative to 2007. Asia and Latin America have
benefit from stabilizing market and recovering portfolio inflows.
According to institute of international finance [IIF ] forecasts net private flow to emerging Asia
to rise 191 billion dollar in 2009 and 273 billion dollar in 2010, from 171 billion dollar in 2008
and 422 billion dollar in 2007. The main turnaround has occurred in investment in equities, from
sizable net outflows in 2008 [57 billion dollar ] to net inflows in 2009 [51 billion dollar ]
Net private inflows in emerging Latin American markets will be about 100 billion dollar in 2009,
with five countries Brazil, China, Colombia, Mexico and Peru accounting for 92 percent of
the net inflow.Net private flows to this region were 132 billion dollar in 2008 and 228 billion
dollar in 2007. The net private capital flow to emerging market and developing countries were
700billion dollar in 2007, came down to 259.5 billion dollar in 2008 and rose 521 billion dollar
in 2011. The net private direct investment was 440billion in 2007, rose to 479.6billion dollar in
2008 and fell to 418 in 2011.
Financial condition in emerging markets began ti tighten during the 2011. Funding condition
worsened for banks, contributing to a tightening of lending standards, and capital inflows
diminished, However this flows are now returning with new vigour, and risk spreads have come
down again.
2001-03
110.1
2007
700.1
2008
259.5
2011
521
Private Direct
155.6
440.2
479.6
418.3
Investment - Net
Private Portfolio
-32.1
105.9
-72.9
101.1
Flows - Net
Other Private Capital
-13.4
154.1
-147.1
1.6
Flows Net
Official Flows Net
Changes In Reserve
-10.1
-189
-92.6
-1210.0
-97.8
-724.9
-109.8
-831.6
Following liberalisation and structural adjustment since 1991, India had embarked on a policy of
encouraging capital flows in cautious manner.The strategy has been to encourage long-term
capital inflows and discourage short-term and volatile flows. Broadly speaking, Indias approach
towards external capital flows could be divided into three main phases.
FIRST PHASE:In the first phase starting at the time of independence and spanning up to the early 1980s.
Indiasreliance of external flows was mainly restricted to multilateral and bilateral concessional
finance.
SECOND PHASE:The second phase mainly refers to late 1980s. In the context of the widening of the current
account deficit during the 1980s, India supplemented the traditional external sources of financing
with resource to commercial loans including short-term borrowing and deposits from nonresident Indians [ NRIs ]. As a result, the proportion of short-term debt in indias total external
debt increased significantly by the late 1980s.
COMMERCIAL BORROWINGS:The approach to external commercial borrowings has been one of prudence, with self imposed
ceilings on approvals and a careful monitoring of the cost of raising funds as well as their end
use. External commercial borrowing are also subject to a dual route; these can be accessed
without any discretionary approvals up to a limit, beyond which specific approval are needed
from the reserve bank/government. Short-term credits above us 20 billion dollar require prior
approval of the reserve bank. In respect of NRI deposits, some control over inflows is exercised
through specification of interest rate ceilings.
EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE:-
As regards external assistance, both bilateral and multilateral flows are administered by the
government of India and the significance of official flows has decline over the years. Thus, in
managing the external account, there is limited reliance on external debt, especially short-term
external debt. Non-debt creating capital inflows in the form of FDI and portfolio investment
through FIIs, on the other hand, are encourage. India has adopted a cautious policy stance with
regard to short term flows. Especially in respect of the debt-creating flows.
CAPITAL OUTFLOWS:In respect of capital outflows, the approach has been to facilitate direct overseas investment
through joint venture and wholly owned subsidiaries and provision of financial support to
promote export, especially projects exports from india. Resident corporate and registered
partnership firm have been allowed to invest up to 100percent of their net worth in overseas joint
venture or wholly owned subsidiaries, without any separate monetary ceiling. Exporter and
exchange earners have also been given permission to maintain foreign currency account and use
them for permitted purpose which facilitate their overseas business promotion and growth. Thus,
over time, both inflows and outflows under capital account have been gradually liberalised.
CAPITAL FLOW TO INDIA:Since the introduction of reforms in the early 1990s, india has witnessed a significant in cross
border capital flows. The net capital inflows have more than doubled from an average of us
4billion dollar during the 1980s to an average of about us 9billion dollar during 1993-2000. The
proportion of non debt flows in total capital flows has increased from about 5 percent in the later
half of the 1980s to about 43 percent in 1990s. Net capital flows rose from a level of us 25.0
billion dollar in 2005-06 to reach us 107.9 billion dollar in 2007-08. The impressive growth in
2007-08 was due to
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
investment;
Large inflows in the form of non-resident Indians [ NRI ] deposits;
An initial fall in portfolio investment which was compensated by recovery in the latter
half of the years. Notwithstanding a significant increase in overall capital inflows.
Particular foreign investment during the 1990s, these remain smaller than other countries
of similar economic size.
In 2009-10, the net capital inflow was us 1.6billion and rose to us 62billion in 2010-2011 mainly
on account of trade credit and loans [ ECBs and banking capital ]. The net non-debt flows i.e. the
net foreign investment comprising FDI and portfolio investment [ADRs/GDRs and FIIs ]
declined from us 50.4billion dollar in 2009-10 to us 39.7 billion in 2010-11.
Inward FDI showed a declining trend while outward FDI showed an increasing trend in 2010-11.
Inward FDI declined from us 33.1 billion in 2009-10 to us 25.9 billion dollar in 2009-10.
The net portfolio investments flows witnessed marginal decline to us 30.3 billion dollar during
2010.11 as against us 32.4 billion dollar in 2009-10.
Other categories of capital flows, namely debt flows of ECBs, banking capital, and short-term
credit recorded significant increase in 2010-11
2007-08
106585
2009-10
51634
2010-11
61989
2114
22609
2890
2000
4941
12506
3.Short-term debt
4.banking capital [ net ] of which
15930
11759
7558
2083
10990
4962
179
43326
2922
50362
3238
39652
FDI [ net ]
15893
17966
9360
portfolio [ net ]
6.Rupee debt service
7.Other flows [ net ]
27433
-122
10969
32396
-97
-13162
30293
-68
-10994
Effect Of Policy Measure:Capital flows have witnessed sharp occasional swing in response to policy measures. The policy
measure include changes in reserve requirements for financial initities, variation in the pace and
sequencing of the reform measures and revisions in conditions governing end-use of external
funds. Co-ordination and sterilisation of foreign inflows were also undertaken to prevent undue
pressure on the exchange rate. Measures have also been to maintain orderly condition in the
financial markets and to ensure that capital flows promote efficiency without having an adverse
impact on economy stability.
Conclusion:
International capital movement have played an important role in the economic development of
several countries. They provide an outlet for saving for the lending countries which helps to
smooth out business cycles and lead to a more stable pattern of economic growth. On the other
hand, they help to finance development of under-developed countries. They also help to ease the
balance of payments problems of developing economies. Thus, international capital movement
have an important role to play in the balance of payments adjustments mechanism.
As compared to developed countries of the world, the developing countries suffering from
scarcity of capital and poor technology. Therefore, they rely on international capital floes to
finance their investment opportunities and hence, to raise income and payment.
CHAPTER - 6
Bibliography:
Websites referred:
www.wikipedia.com
www.ask.com
www.alexa.com
www.biographies.com
BOOK: