[]

CIP
/ .2013.8
The Signal and the Noise
ISBN 9787508641140
I. ;II. ;III. ;IV. F201
CIP 2013 155105
The Signal and the Noise
Copyright Nate Silver2012
All rights reserved including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form.
This edition published by arrangement with The Penguin Press, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. Simplified Chinese translation copyright 2013 by
China CITIC Press
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

[ ]
; ; China CITIC Press
4 2 ; ;100029
CITIC Publishing Group

787mm1092mm; 1/16 26.75 500 2013 8 1 ;;
2013 8 1
0120131998 8087
ISBN 9787508641140/F2968
69.00
http://www.publish.citic.com/
http://weibo.com/citicpub
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3

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1976

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1682

17
2012 7

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R 1968
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20

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2009

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2%

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5%

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70%

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5 5
8
3
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3
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K J K

8 7 7
1 326
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3
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8 8 3 8
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102 3

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A J

1 326
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103

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353

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ESPN
7 6
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2009
100
5 7

90%

durrrr

17

50


2012
2009

2000

3
AK Q
7 6 A K


100
10 000 100 000
100

10

2004~2005
6 400 000

103

80%
20%

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 103

95%
99%

MBA

538

2000

 10-4

2008~2009

10

 10%[3] 10

105A 5 10
100

105A 5 10 100

100 110
100
4
25~30

100 400
100 150

100 40
10%

105B

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2008 1 700

21

105B 5 10 100

2006 10

UIGEA

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Party Poker

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2006 75 000
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538
1/3
2011

158

106 2011 4
2011 5
4 184 5 384

 106 2011 4 5

105

105 VS

100 200 100

200
200 16 100 3 200

107

 95%60 000
40 60 000
275 000 35 000

107 100 200

100 200 10 000

30 000

500

52%
4

1990 32

2012

90% 10%


40

[1]5 10
500 000 000 500
499 999 500
[2] A
[3] 80%
2% 2%

2009 2008
800
1 850 2009
46 500
5
20 50 6
21
6 6 ,
12 4~5

A B
0.190 A B

 111

 11-2

30% 50%
40%

GDP

Intrade. com

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2008

100

18
66
1892

2008
Intrade. com

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538 2008
Intrade. com 538
Intrade. com

Intrade. com 538538

538 Intrade. com
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15%~20%
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70

99.5%
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Intrade. com
538

538

Intrade. com

com

Intrade.

Intrade. com
Intrade. com
2012 3
Intrade. com 160
800
9 000
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538 Intrade. com

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1959 20

1.77

1965
20 80

1950~1960

4 000

2007
500
5
EVTMX A 2002~2006 10%
JSVAX T
9%
2002~2006
2007~2011
EVTMX 2002~2006 5
JSVAX 3%
5

113

114 6 4
1 0
20 70 20 80 1 000
6

 3
3

5%~10%


900

200

10%
20

12%
3

0.25%

1966~1975 10 10
58%
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1/7 000 000 000 000 000

10
1976 1 2 10 000

10 1985

10
1976 10 000 10 25 000
10
10 000 18 000

0.25%
10 10 000
1 100

21 54%
10
2000 1
10 10 000
4 000 141 99%

[1]

 11-5

20 90 21
1998 2000 2

 11-6 1990-2004

35%
1/3
2000 10
10 500 Skype[2]

10 2010 7%
Pet.com

500 5 8

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36 000
40 000 100 000

10

P/E
15
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500

500
51921 442000
10
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22 000 25 10 000 10
12 000 30 1929 2000
30

1996 12
500 28 1929
33
3

4 10 20

[3]


MGM
10%
MGM 100
110

100 102
104 110

MGM
10%

 11-7

1998
CIBC

1988 12
243 400
400

25%

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1988
243 2011
1 300

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95%

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400

1 021

CEO

90 90

90
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 11-8

[4] 21

3
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2001 10 17 15
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2000 4
22%

20 90 21

11920 60
15% 2007 68%

 11-9

30%
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20 80


2008 Intrade. com

4~6

500

1999 3
2 27 500 InfoSpace
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240 000 20
InfoSpace 1.4

3Com 3Com
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Palm 3Com 2/3
Palm 3Com
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1 000 600
600 1 500
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100%

3Com Palm
Palm

1986

100
100

750

 17 0.5%

500

25 900
5 000

2000 1
67%
1990 2 26%
10 500
3 1110

 11-10

1970
500 10 000 2009 40
63 000

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CNBC

1111

11-11

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90% 10%

15~20

20 50

6.5

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[1]

[2]
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120 3%~10% 7%20
7%
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10
1988 6 23
37.8

20 50
0.4
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25

1997

84

3 070
3%
79% 84 121

12-1 84

1990
IPCC
1 000

150

30%
18

460

1
27

400
200

1959


390PPM

315PPM

2011

1824
1859

19

19

1897

20 80
5 20 90
1/6
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2012 1
16

2009 12
4

20 60
20 60

3
2011
3 5

74
15
2007

2007
2012 1 47
29

 150
2007

12-2

89 72 89

20

2006

2008 94%
84%

19% 50

24

2062 11 22

10 20

80~100

541814

30

20 80 3
48

SIR

1990
3 159

66%
99%

10

123
3

12-3

2
10 0.2 0.02
15 30
2011
10 33.2 10

1869 124
1912~2011 100

100 15.6

12-4 1912-2012

1~10 ENSO
3

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11

2012 2013
17 18
70

1991
0.2 10

 1~10

30

50 100

3 20~25 3

ENSO

1990 20 20
80

4
4

1850
1979
1951~1980 30
20

125 1998

2010 20 50

12-5 1951-1980

1981 6

2011
1988

1950~1980
30 20 90
55%~70% 33%
20 90 10 6
12121 10
2012
121
33%
1988 20 90 55%~70%

1 =17.2

1990~1999

2000~2011

1990~2011

86.2

60%

58%

59%

86.2

10%

42%

27%

81.4

80%

75%

77%

89.3

50%

67%

59%

50%

61%

56%

3
20 90
33%
10 8
4

2011
1990

100 5
2 3
126
1990~2011 0.015 100 1.5
1/2

 12-6 1990-2011 VS .1990

2010
400PPM
2010 390PPM

1995

1.8

1990
5 1995

20
70

1975

2011 10

10

20 70
20 90 1995
1991

127 20 70

1970 20

2000

 12-7 1900-2005

ENSO

1850~1989
1990
1.5 128

 12-8 1990-2011 VS .

100%
1938 GS

2~3

1990 1.1~1.7
0.015 1.5
1981
1988

2007 20
2007 2007 1987 1947 1907

2011

2007
2011
2007
4 2001~2011
10 129

 12-9 2001-2011

ENSO
1998 2008~2018 10
2008

2001~2011 10 1894~1913 1937~1956 1966~1977 1210

12-10 1900-2011

2001~2011
10

1850~2007 100

10 10
1001

10 1900
75% 25%

1001
2PPM
10 15%

NBA

2001

95%
10 2001~2011

10
15%
50%
10 122
10 95% 85%
122

95%

10

15%

10

50%

10


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xy

xy z1 x 85%

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28%

RealClimate.org

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Watts Up With That.com

193

20
70 2011
100


911
12 7 1941 12 7

60

1941

11~12

PURPLE 97%

1941 11
20 40
483~644
6

1941 12 4
165 45 3
2 400 4

1941 12 8 4701

2001 9 11 77 59
125

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13-1

2012 3
1.73
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4
1975~1977 25

1962

10
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911

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13-2

911

911

6212
7 765

1.
2.
3.

911

2002

2011

2006

911
1994
1998

1993
6

1998 224
2000
2001 7

2001 8 16

50
747

911
19 4
93

911 4
4

911
20 80 31
21 2000 39

13-3 1979-2000

911

911

911

911911

9112 977

911

911
1985

329 911 1/10911

1995
P
168
911
911

2008

2008

911

30

30

4
5 6
7 6

5 6

911 8 911

C 1979

1979~2000
3
1979
2001 911 4 000
7
3
40%

134

911

 13-4 1979-2009

135

 13-5 1979-2009

1979~2009 31
6 100
7 22 1
000 3 000 911 40

911

911
911
911
911911
1979 2001 9 10
911
80

 13-6 1979 1 1 -2001 9 10

911

9
911 8 9

1945
20
25 1945
100
400

911

2004 10

911 10 2010

400

911

3 700 600
2%

911
20 000 19 80 65
000 9
11

1985 30 000 11 000

24

1 000

90%

911

911
5

911 4
767

911

911

2001
300 100

9
1979~2009
10
10% 10 3% 100
0.6%

10
32 6 5 32 7 5
1 000

10 6 7 7 10
6

1906~2005 3 1960 1964 2004

100

2010 7

911 2 977
30 1979~2009
137911

1/1 600 1 600 100

625 1979
180

 13-7 1979-2009

1982
QL

16

21 10 2 500
20

2011
35

500~1 000

1%

2012 16%

138
1979
200

 13-8 1979-2009

911

911
747

911

911
911
11

911

1705
1758
1758

2061 7 28

1990

911

1.
2.
3.
4.

5.

6.

7.

20

20 70

20 50 20
70 10 20 50

2 1990-2012

12

538

EJ