Best Case

Hotels data
Rooms
RoomsX365 days
Occupancy in %
Growth of prices per year
Average revenue per room in Euro

Assumptions
150
54.75
75%
7%
145

2005
112.5

P&L (000's Euro)

Assumptions
Sales
COGS
15% X sales
GROSS MARGIN
Personnel
3% YoY growth
Marketing expenses
14% X sales
Overhead
11% X sales
EBITA
Depreciation (6% of the building)
9000
6%
EBIT
Financial Expenses
3%
(1)
EBT
Taxes
35%
Net income
Dividends to Equity holders: 50% of profit of previous year
Balance Net Income
Profitability ratios
Sales Growth
Gross Margin/sales
ROS (Net incomes/sales)
ROE (Net income/equity)
ROA (EBIT/Net Assets)

Abridged Balance Sheet

Assumptions
NFO (% of sales)
5%
NFO (line of credit required)
Gross FA
17
Net Fixed Assets
NA ( Net assets + NFO) (Total Assets)
D Debt long term
10,000
E Equity
7,000
Debt+Equity
Total Liability
Cash Surplus (+) or Loan (-)

2005
16313
2447
13866
900
2284
1794
8888
540
8348
174.5
8173
2861
5312
5312

85%
33%
76%
49%

(2)

(3)
(4)

(5)
(5)

(6)

2004
na
0
8000
8000
8000
5000
3000
8000
8000
0

2005
5%
816
17000
17000
17816
10000
7000
17000
17000
-816

Dividend paid (50% NI prev. year)

CASH FLOW CALCULTAION AND RETURNS

Free cash flow (FCF) of the project
EBIT
variation of NA (+ -)
FCF
IRR Project
FCF after taxes
IRR after taxes
CF Shareholder
Net income
Variation of NA (+/-)
Variation of Debt (+/-)
CF Shareholder
annual increase in share
dividends paid
IRR Shareholder
Discounting factor with K of 12%
PV of CF
PV @12%
CF AC GROUP
CF Shareholder
Cost of options ?
Cannibalization ? (10% X Margin)
Headquarter charge ? (7% sales)
Total CF AC Group
PV of CF @ 12%
IRR AC Hotels

0
2004

1
2005
0
8348
-8000 -9815.625
-8000
-1468
69%
-8000 -4389.75
43%

(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)

(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)
(17)
(18)
(19)

Assumptions
70%

5312
-9536.25
5000
776.2203
4000
0

-8000
5000
-3000
3000
0
103%
1.00
0.8928
-3000 693.0095
30829.2739

(20)
(21)
(22)
(23)

-3000 776.2203
-200
0 -1386.563
1141.875
-3200 531.5328
-3200 474.5525
93%

RISKS
Identify biggest Risk (24)
Occupancy
IRR AC Group
Revenue/room
IRR AC Group
Growth of sales
IRR AC Group
Construction

Base

Best
65%
130

75% D=0
D=10
145 D=15

5%

6%

IRR AC Group

2006
112.5

2007
112.5

2008
112.5

2009
112.5

2010
112.5

2011
112.5

2012
112.5

2006
17454
2618
14836
927
2444
1920
9546
540
9006
340.0
8666
3033
5633
2656
2976

2007
18676
2801
15875
955
2615
2054
10251
540
9711
325.6
9385
3285
6100
2816
3284

2008
19984
2998
16986
983
2798
2198
11007
540
10467
311.4
10155
3554
6601
3050
3551

2009
21382
3207
18175
1013
2994
2352
11816
540
11276
297.3
10979
3843
7136
3300
3836

2010
22879
3432
19447
1043
3203
2517
12684
540
12144
283.3
11861
4151
7710
3568
4141

2011
24481
3672
20809
1075
3427
2693
13614
540
13074
439.4
12634
4422
8212
3855
4358

2012
26194
3929
22265
1107
3667
2881
14610
540
14070
425.8
13644
4775
8869
4106
4762

7.0%
85%
32%
80%
55%

7.0%
85%
33%
87%
61%

7.0%
85%
33%
94%
68%

7.0%
85%
33%
102%
76%

7.0%
85%
34%
110%
85%

7.0%
85%
34%
117%
67%

7.0%
85%
34%
127%
75%

2006
5%
873
17000
16460
17333
9000
7000
16000
16000
-1333

2007
5%
934
17000
15920
16854
8000
7000
15000
15000
-1854

2008
5%
999
17000
15380
16379
7000
7000
14000
14000
-2379

2009
5%
1069
17000
14840
15909
6000
7000
13000
13000
-2909

2010
5%
1144
17000
14300
15444
5000
7000
12000
12000
-3444

2011
5%
1224
25568
19422
20646
4000
7000
11000
11000
-9646

2012
5%
1310
25568
18882
20192
3000
7000
10000
10000
-10192

2656

2816

3050

3300

2
2006
9006
482.91
9489

3
2007
9711
478.91
10190

4
2008
10467
474.63
10941

3568

3855

4106

5
2009
11276
470.06
11747

6
7
2010
2011
12144
13074
465.16 -5202.08
12609
7872

8
2012
14070
454.32
14524

6336.5625 6790.993875 7277.95851 7799.75541

8358.8452 3295.861

9599.6225

5633
6100
6601
7136
7710
8212
8869
462.00
488.81
506.73
505.06
503.32 -5160.52
499.56
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
-1000
5094.66823 5589.2474108 6107.65934 6641.53444 7212.84407 2051.824 8368.12419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2656
2816
3050
3300
3568
3855
4106
0.7972
0.7118
0.6355
0.5674
0.5066
0.4523
0.4039
4061.46952 3978.426307 3881.41751 3768.40664 3654.02681 928.0401 3379.88536

5094.66823 5589.2474108 6107.65934 6641.53444 7212.84407 2051.824 8368.12419

-1483.6
-1587.5
-1698.6
-1817.5
-1944.7
-2080.9
-2226.5
1221.80625 1307.3326875 1398.84598 1496.76519 1601.53876 1713.646 1833.60172
4832.85261 5309.104692 5807.90663 6320.79904 6869.65719 1684.614 7975.20954
3852.75
3779.02
3690.92
3586.42
3480.17 761.9511
3221.19
NPV AC Hotels
28696.73
K=
12%

IRR AC Group in scenario (25)

Worst
Base
Best
93%

IRR AC Group assuming away

Options
Cannibalization

HQ Charge

2013
112.5

2014
112.5

2015
112.5

2013
28028
4204
23824
1140
3924
3083
15677
540
15137
412.3
14724
5154
9571
4434
5137

2014
29990
4498
25491
1174
4199
3299
16820
540
16280
399.0
15881
5558
10322
4785
5537

2015
32089
4813
27276
1210
4492
3530
18044
540
17504
386.0
17118
5991
11127
5161
5965

7.0%
85%
34%
137%
83%

7.0%
85%
34%
147%
91%

7.0%
85%
35%
159%
101%

2013
5%
1401
25568
18342
19743
2000
7000
9000
9000
-10743

2014
5%
1499
25568
17802
19301
1000
7000
8000
8000
-11301

2015
5%
1604
25568
17262
18866
0
7000
7000
7000
-11866 Negetive fig. indicates short term loan

4434

4785

9
2013
15137
448.32
15585

10
2014
16280
441.90
16722

5161

11
2015
K
17504
12%
435.04
g
17939
2%

10287.1451 11023.6577 11812.6154

9571
10322
11127 K
497.54
495.41
493.18
12%
-1000
-1000
-1000
g
9068.36471 9817.78878 10619.8672
2%
0
0
0
4434
4785
5161
0.3606
0.322
0.2875
3270.05231 3161.32799 3053.21181

9068.36471 9817.78878 10619.8672

-2382.4
-2549.1
-2727.6
1961.95384 2099.29061 2246.24096
8647.94603 9367.94079 10138.5298
3118.45
3016.48
2914.83