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Inflation
Budget Deficit declined to 5.8%
of GDP in 2013 from 6.4% in
2012
Debt to GDP Ratio declined to
78.0% in 2013 from 79.1% in
2012
2013
Fiscal
Sector
Notable growth of over 7% was observed in all key sectors of the economy in Q32013; a first since Q1-2006
Average growth from 2006-2013 (8 years) was 6.7%, and from 2010-2013 (4 years) was
7.5%, showing evidence of a sustainable growth model
10
Sector
Industry
Q3 Growth 2013
Y-o-Y %
8.1
12.5
Manufacturing
6.0
Factory Industry
6.8
11.2
Construction
10.0
* Q4 2013 is an estimate
11
12
Note: The size of the bubble represents the GDP of the Province
13
14
15
16
Sri Lanka was ranked 60th in the world in the Global Prosperity Index:
Highest ranked in South Asia
17
Cumulative expenditure on
imports declined by 2.5% to
US$ 17,231 mn during the first 11
months of 2013
Consumer goods increased by 4.5%
Intermediate goods declined by 2.8%
Investment goods declined by 5.9%
18
19
20
2012
1.4 US$ bn
1,170,000 arrivals
1.0 US$ bn
1,005,605 arrivals
2013 (Est)
471 US$ mn
2012
436 US$ mn
21
22
2013 (Est)
418 US$ mn
2012
254 US$ mn
23
2013 (Est)
6.7 US$ bn
2012
6.0 US$ bn
24
FDI inflows: (Jan-Sep 2013): US$ 870 mn (during Jan-Sep 2012, FDI inflows
were US$ 615 mn)
25
26
Since early September, the Rupee has gained value against the
US dollar by about 1.6%
The healthy reserve position was supported by the inflow of funds from foreign
sources, which have been continuously encouraged in order to bridge the savingsinvestment gap
28
29
The Central Bank has been able to earn positive returns through
effective International reserve management, in spite of severe
uncertainties in global financial markets
Year
Absolute
Return
(US$ mn)
CBSL Return
(%)
2 Year US Govt
Treasuries Average
Return (%)
2010
341.0
6.2
0.7
2011
430.0
6.6
0.4
2012
222.7
4.0
0.3
2013
197.0
3.3
0.3
Year-on-year: 4.7%
Year-on-year: 2.1%
31
32
33
34
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
2012
Rs. bn
44.6
55.3
55.3
18.7
36.1
19.0
35.7
14.5
9.8
29.5
24.1
9.9
352.6
2013
Rs. bn
9.7
18.0
9.5
7.6
18.3
11.4
28.5
3.2
4.9
27.2
22.2
Credit Growth
in 2013
15.5%
13.3%
10.9%
10.2%
9.3%
8.9%
8.4%
7.9%
7.6%
7.4%
7.3%
160.6
35
36
The addition of 600 MW by stage 2 and stage 3 of Norochcholai Coal Power Plant
to the system by April 2014 will help sustain the performance of CEB while
reducing the dependence on a single source of fuel
37
These measures reduced the losses of CPC to Rs. 6.8 bn during the
first ten months of 2013, compared to the loss of Rs. 87.0 bn
recorded during the corresponding period of 2012
38
39
SriLankan Airlines
40
NCG from the banking system increased by Rs. 280.3 bn during Jan-Nov 2013
However, NCG from the Central Bank declined by Rs. 151.1 bn during the period
2011
16.7
17.7
17.5
18.4
19.4
20.7
20.7
20.6
20.7
19.8
20.6
19.1
2012
20.1
21.9
22.8
22.9
20.9
20.5
19.8
20.2
18.9
18.2
18.1
17.6
2013
18.3
17.0
15.6
15.2
16.3
15.8
16.4
15.3
16.3
18.3
16.7
16.0 (proj)
41
1,855
30
26
52
12
252
42
43
Strengthened
supervisory
and regulatory
framework
44
2012
2013 (Sept)
Branches
3,359
3,426
Other Outlets
3,031
3,031
ATMs
2,415
2,496
2013
Density
Rank
Density
Rank
Western
18.3
20.7
Southern
13.2
16.1
Sabaragamuwa
11.3
13.5
North Western
10.7
12.9
Central
11.5
14.4
Uva
11.6
14.5
North Central
12.6
16.1
Eastern
10.2
16.7
Northern
9.9
21.5
45
46
47
48
49
What it does
Sensitivity Stress
Testing
Macro Stress
Testing
Banking
Soundness Index
(BSI)
Financial Market
Stability
Indicator (FMSI)
Macro-economic
Stability
Indicator (MESI)
Financial System
Stability
Indicator (FSSI)
Network
Analysis
50
51
52
53
2013
All sectors
No. of
Beneficiaries
96,685
8,232
SME
25,314
5,284
Micro Finance
42,572
2,534
2,028
211
166,599
16,261
Total
Entrepreneurship development
63
37
Loan Amount
Rs. mn
Agriculture
Housing
Financial literacy
54
Radio programmes
16
100
TV programmes
No. of
Programmes
No. of
Participants
Financial Literacy
69
5,674
13
1,067
37
1,692
Skills Development
78
3,285
64
3,853
Credit Camps
26
1,647
Other Awareness
Programmes
249
23,682
Total
536
40,900
Conducted by
Provincial Offices
55
56
57
58
59
332.4 bn
825.5 mn
7.4 bn
4,354.6 mn
60
61
62
63
Jan-Sep
2013*
Change
(%)
14.6**
14.7
0.68
2.3**
2.4
4.3
Total contributions
(Rs. mn)
52,025
57,596
10.7
Total refunds
(Rs. mn)
36,481
36,949
1.3
87,304
83,046
(4.9)
997.0
1,139.8
14.3
1,112.9
1,250.7
12.4
Contributing member
accounts (mn)
Number of refunds
Total liability to members
(Rs. bn)
Total value of the Fund
(Rs. bn)
* Annualised growth
Jan-Sep
2012
* Provisional
** As at 31.12.2012
64
Composition of Assets
2012
2013*
Value
Value
Share %
Share %
(Rs. bn)
(Rs.bn)
Govt. Securities
Equities
Corporate
Debentures and
Other
Reverse Repo
Fixed Assets
and Net Current
Assets
1,035
59
Total
1,144
90.5
5.1
0.7
1, 137
67
10
90.9
5.4
0.8
0.3
0.2
39
3.4
34
2.7
Gross Interest
66,785
76,930
Amortization
Gain/(Loss)
14,702
13,207
Interest and
Amortization
81,487
90,137
1,467
2,467
560
885
83,514
93,489
Dividends
Others
100.0
1,251
100.0
Total
11.9%
*(Provisional)
Change
(%)
2012
2013 (Est)
Profit
(Rs. mn)
As a % of
Net worth
of the Fund
Profit
(Rs. mn)
As a % of
Net worth
of the Fund
Profit
(Rs. mn)
As a % of
Net worth
of the Fund
107,202
10.53
111,829
9.77
128,847
9.85
65
66
The overall fiscal deficit is estimated to be at 5.8% of GDP in 2013, down from
6.4% of GDP in 2012
67
Total expenditure and net lending during 2013 is estimated to decline to 19.7%
of GDP from 20.5% of GDP during 2012
Average public investment from 2006 to 2013 (8 years): 6.2% of GDP
68
69
70
71
72
Phase 1 - Completed
Phase 2 - Completion by early 2014
Northern Expressway
Feasibility study in progress
Power projects
900 MW Norochcholai Coal Power Plant
Phase 1: (300 MW) Commissioned
Phase 2: Unit 1 (300 MW) Completion by early 2014
Unit 2 (300 MW) Completion by April 2014
73
74
75
2012/2013
Fitch Ratings
Spain A to BBB
Cyprus BBB to BBBelgium AA+ to AA
Greece CCC to C
Slovenia A Negative to BBB+ negative
Egypt B+ to B- negative
Japan AA+ to A+ stable
Standard & Poors
France AAA to AA+ Negative
Spain AA- to BBPortugal BBB- to BB Negative
Slovenia AA- to A
South Africa A- to BBB negative
Italy BBB+ to BB negative
Cyprus B to C stable
Egypt B to CCC+ stable
Argentina B- to B- negative
European Union AAA to AA+
Moodys
South Africa A3 to Baa1
France Aaa (Negative) to Aa1
Spain A3 to Baa3
Cyprus Ba1 to B3
Greece Ca to C
Pakistan B3 to Caa1
Italy Baa2 to Baa2 (Negative)
Egypt B3 to Caa1 (Negative)
76
77
78
79
80
81
%
US$ mn
2000
2005
2013 (Est/Proj)
5.0
4.0
6.7
16,596
24,406
67,374
Remarks
Substantially higher growth
trajectory
176% increase in 8 years!
Unemployment
7.6
7.2
4.5(1H)
6.2
11.0
6.9
% of GDP
6.4
2.7
3.9
000
400
549
1,170
Steady progress
Remittances
US$ mn
1,160
1,968
6,650
FDI Inflows
US$ mn
175
272
1,459
Steady growth
US$ mn
Months of Imports
911
1.5
2,735
3.7
7,128
4.5
Rs./US$
80.06
102.12
130.75
Budget Deficit
% of GDP
9.5
7.0
5.8
Public Debt
% of GDP
96.9
90.6
78.0
12.9
19.1
16.0
11.8
21.5
8.0
Rs. bn
88.8
584.0
2,459.9
82
83
and
Per Capita
income has been
on track
with the
ambitious
targets
84
Unit
2013 (Est)
Projections
2014
2015
2016
7.2
7.8
8.2
8.5
Total Investment
% of GDP
31.0
32.0
32.5
33.0
GDP Deflator
7.0
6.0
5.5
5.0
Headline Inflation
4.7
5.0
4.5
4.0
Trade Balance
% of GDP
-12.8
-11.6
-10.2
-8.4
% of GDP
-3.9
-2.4
-1.0
0.1
US$ mn
700
1,500
1,750
3,700
% of GDP
-0.5
1.1
1.6
2.3
Overall Balance
% of GDP
-5.8
-5.2
-4.4
-3.8
Government Debt
% of GDP
78.0
74.3
70.6
65.0
16.0
14.0
14.0
14.0
8.0
16.0
17.0
17.0
External Sector
Overall Balance
Fiscal Sector
Monetary Sector
2b)
The following potential risks could pose challenges to the above projections:
Uncertain weather conditions
Geopolitical tensions
Unwinding of accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies
Slower growth in global demand
85
86
87
crew training
88
89
90
Construction to commence
Power Plant to be
commissioned
The addition of new power plants will help increase total installed capacity of
the country by around 36% to 4,575 MW by end 2018
First commercial production of Sri Lankas gas fields is expected to commence
in 2016
Sri Lanka is building capacities to provide oil trade-related ancillary services
The existing capacity at Sapugaskanda Crude Oil Refinery will be increased
2013 (Est)
2016 (Proj)
2012
1.0 US$ bn
1,005,605 arrivals
1.4 US$ bn
1,170,000 arrivals
3.1 US$ bn
2,500,000 arrivals
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
% of GDP
2012
9,774
19,183
-9,409
-15.8
2013E
10,452
19,046
-8,594
-12.8
2014P
12,050
21,020
-8,970
-11.6
2015P
14,100
23,180
-9,080
-10.2
2016P
16,920
25,498
-8,578
-8.4
471 US$ mn
2016 (Proj)
2012
436 US$ mn
2013 (Est)
661 US$ mn
254 US$ mn
418 US$ mn
2016 (Proj)
1,513 US$ mn
99
[10.1% of GDP]
6.6 US$ bn
[9.9% of GDP]
2016 (Proj)
6.0 US$ bn
2013 (Est)
2012
9.0 US$ bn
[8.9% of GDP]
100
2011
2012
2013E
2014P
2015P
2016P
-4,615
-3,915
-2,650
-1,872
-858
74
-7.8
-6.6
-3.9
-2.4
-1.0
0.1
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013E
2014P
5.6
5.4
4.9
4.6
4.5
4.1
Interest payments
6.4
6.3
5.5
5.4
5.1
4.4
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.9
108
109
Resultant lower budgetary financing requirement will ease the need to rely on
bank borrowing, thereby allowing the Central Bank to maintain monetary
expansion at desired levels, reducing crowding out of private investment, and
reducing demand pressures on inflation
110
111
112
Dec-13
(Est)
Dec-14
(Proj)
17.6
16.0
14.0
10.2
0.9*
14.0
8.0
16.0
Broad Money
y-o-y % change
Reserve Money
y-o-y % change
17.6
113
With effect from 1st February 2014, the SDF will be uncollateralised,
in line with the practice followed by major central banks in the
world
115
Accordingly, effective 2nd January 2014, the new key policy interest
rates of the Central Bank, the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR)
and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) will be 6.50% and
8.00%, respectively
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
By 2016, Sri Lanka will graduate to the Upper Middle Income category as per
international classification
123
124
At least 5 Sri Lankan banks will have assets of Rs. 1 trillion or more, with such
banks also having a strong regional presence
There will be a reduced number of banks as a result of mergers and
consolidations
There will be a large Development Bank that will provide a substantial impetus
to development banking activities in the country
Banks will rely on new and effective IT applications
Banks will have substantially lower interest margins through increased
efficiency and prudent assets and liabilities management
Foreign banks in Sri Lanka will demonstrate a greater participation in economic
activities, and will be making significant contributions to the economy
125
126
Consolidation in the banking and the NBFI sectors will have to be encouraged, using the
attractive tax concessions provided by the Government
The regulatory framework will have to be re-designed to monitor the emerging business
models of banks and NBFIs
The risk profiles of banks and NBFIs will have to be identified and regulated in order to
ensure overall stability of the financial sector and enhance public confidence
Number of
banks
Market
share
11
89.4%
12
7.4%
10
3.2%
128
The two large state commercial banks, BOC and PB, will be
encouraged to grow and expand towards a stronger regional
presence, and to operate with higher levels of capital
The NSB will be encouraged to broad base their banking
activities to contribute to the economy on a larger scale
The Pradeshiya Sanwardhana Bank will be encouraged to serve
the niche market of microfinance, targeting inclusive growth in
the provinces
The other smaller state banks will be encouraged to merge and
play a more cohesive role, since at present these banks account
for just 1.1% of the market share!
129
130
131
Target Date
Target Date
In 2014: Supervisory
Observation period
In November 2014: Issue
Direction to maintain
minimum LCR effective
from 1st January 2015
During 2014
132
133
Target Date
During 2014
134
135
136
A corporate group will be allowed to operate only one NBFI after end June 2014
Accordingly, they will be required to acquire/merge if they operate more than one NBFI. A
group is to be defined as a holding company, which owns more than one NBFI, or where
common shareholders or directors own controlling stakes in more than one NBFI
Consultancy fees for merger and consolidation processes will be paid by the Central
Bank to facilitate the process
The Central Bank will also establish a separate unit headed by an Assistant Governor to
assist in the merger/consolidation process
137
138
June 2014
June 2014
139
Introduce a system of lower leverage ratios to NBFIs which are only partially-compliant
with the Directions of the Central Bank
Publish the maximum deposit levels for each NBFI on a quarterly basis, beginning 2Q,
2014
Introduce a liquidity support fund for NBFIs which require short term liquidity support,
by 2H, 2014
Closely monitor the implementation of the proposed consolidation/merger plan
Strengthen the risk focused regulatory and supervisory system
Use an online early warning system to identify emerging risks in an NBFI
Impose penalties on, and/or disqualify from holding office, key management personnel
when there are continued non-compliances of Central Bank Directions
Review and follow up the rehabilitation process of weak companies in the NBFI sector,
and revive such companies in keeping with the proposed medium term consolidation
plan
Expedite the investigation processes on unauthorised finance businesses
140
Such products will also fulfill the emerging need for long term
savings instruments that are needed to fund long term projects
141
2013E
Annual Target
2014P
2015P
2016P
78.0
74.3
70.6
65.0
4.8
5.5
6.0
6.5
25
24
23
22
43
40
37
35
143
144
145
It will act as the clearing agency for Government and corporate debt
instruments
It will act as the seller to buyers, and buyer to sellers, and therefore
the credit risk will be mitigated and counterparty confirmations will
not be necessary
It will ensure that all outright
transactions undertaken
through the proposed
E-trading platform and
OTC will be cleared
It will provide for the net
settlement of cash and
securities
146
The Clean Note Policy will continue, and currency notes that are unfit for
circulation will be withdrawn and destroyed through a robust process
Services of banks will be utilised to establish exchange counters to improve
currency exchange facilities
Continued education of the general public and other stakeholders will be
carried out to increase awareness of good habits of handling currency
notes and coins. The increased public awareness will preserve the public
confidence in currency and minimise the incidence of counterfeit notes
The coin collection programme will be continued in order to recirculate idle
coins. Banks will be instructed to collect the tills issued by them to their
customers within a period of 12 months, in order to bring coins back to
circulation
147
148
149
The designs for the new series of Rs. 10 coins will depict one or
more of unique Archeological, Cultural, Economic,
Environmental, Religious or Social characteristics of each District
Example:
The Rs. 10 coin depicting the Colombo District will portray certain city sights
and the Colombo Port
150
151
152
153
Regional development activities will concentrate on
providing affordable finance for the SME sector, while also
focusing on the lagging regions & needy sectors
Amount
Rs Mn
Programme
Expected
No. of
Participants
120
11,000
Entrepreneurship
Development
620
27,300
50
2,500
20,600
Training of Trainers
and Bankers
Post and Pre
Harvest Technology
16
800
Business Start-up
12
1,200
Business Revival
12
1,200
830
44,000
Beneficiaries
9,800
117,000
SME
8,050
23,180
1,485
No of
Programmes
Financial
Literacy/School
Leavers/ Loan
Beneficiaries
Agriculture
Microfinance
Dairy
2,000
400
Total
21,335
161,180
Total
154
155
2016P
Average No. of
RTGS Transactions
per day (High
value payments)
1,300
2,500
Average No. of
non-cash Retail
Payments per day
395,000
750,000
RTGS/SSSS
System
Availability
99.92%
99.99%
The risk factors to the system will be identified and policy measures to mitigate such
risks will be adopted to ensure payment and settlement system stability
The LankaSettle System will be assessed continuously against the new core principles
of CPSS in order to identify and address any deficiencies
156
157
158
159
Unit
2013 (Est)
Projections
2014
2015
2016
7.2
7.8
8.2
8.5
Total Investment
% of GDP
31.0
32.0
32.5
33.0
GDP Deflator
7.0
6.0
5.5
5.0
Headline Inflation
4.7
5.0
4.5
4.0
Trade Balance
% of GDP
-12.8
-11.6
-10.2
-8.4
% of GDP
-3.9
-2.4
-1.0
0.1
US$ mn
700
1,500
1,750
3,700
% of GDP
-0.5
1.1
1.6
2.3
Overall Balance
% of GDP
-5.8
-5.2
-4.4
-3.8
Government Debt
% of GDP
78.0
74.3
70.6
65.0
16.0
14.0
14.0
14.0
8.0
16.0
17.0
17.0
External Sector
Overall Balance
Fiscal Sector
Monetary Sector
2b)
160
Source: Colombo Central Business District Town Planning Study, December 2013
161
Source: Colombo Central Business District Town Planning Study, December 2013
162
163