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Ding-Geng Chen
SEE PROFILE
SEE PROFILE
ISBN 978-1-60021-427-1
c 2007 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
Chapter 8
8.1. Introduction
Major changes to marine ecosystems resulting from global climate variation pose enormous challenges to those responsible for the assessment and management of fishery resources. The successful implementation of policies that will enable sustainable fisheries,
especially during periods of climate change, generally requires a good understanding of
relationships between numbers of spawners and subsequent recruitment. Nontraditional
analytical techniques, including artificial intelligence (A I ) methodologies, offer significant
advantages over traditional techniques in the analyses of these relationships, and hence
can improve our understanding of how climate change may affect fish abundance. In this
Chapter we apply an A I method, fuzzy logic, to various sets of fish spawnerrecruitment
timeseries data (further applications of the fuzzy concept can be found in Chapter 9). Using fuzzy logic, we incorporate environmental changes in our analysis and thereby model
the uncertain and poorly defined impacts of environmental regimes. Different from traditional approaches, fuzzy logic utilizes a continuous membership function that provides us
with a rational basis to categorize spawnerrecruitment data. We apply this approach to
various populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), herring (Clupea harengus pallasi), and halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) from the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Fuzzy
logic models consistently outperformed traditional approaches as measured by several diagnostic criteria. Because fuzzy logic models address uncertainty better than traditional
approaches, they have the potential to improve our ability to understand factors influencing
spawnerrecruitment relationships, and thereby manage fisheries more effectively.
There is an extensive and developing literature dealing with the consequences of cli-
198
mate change on fish and fisheries. However, most authors rely on traditional statistical
approaches when evaluating climate impacts. Nontraditional approaches, including artificial intelligence (A I ) methodologies, sometimes offer significant advantages and thereby
can help us improve our understanding of relationships between climate changes and fish
abundance (cf. Chapter 3 for further methods applied in the field of fisheries).
Fuzzy logic is one A I approach that is wellsuited to the types of analyses undertaken by
many researchers in the fields of global change and sustainability science. While fuzzy set
theory, first described by Zadeh (1965) has revolutionized computer technology (McNeil
and Freiberger 1993), it remains underutilized in environmental and social fields, especially in areas other than the Orient. By mathematically representing uncertainty, fuzzy
logic formalisms are an approach for dealing with the imprecision intrinsic to many environmental and social problems. Using fuzzy logic models, environmental variables such
as temperature and salinity can be assigned a degree of membership to a particular regime
(e.g. warm or cold, salty or not salty, positive or negative).
Our goal is to demonstrate the utility of fuzzy logic models in the evaluation of climate
change. We will draw largely from our own work on fish populations from the northeast
Pacific Ocean. We hope that by demonstrating some of the benefits of fuzzy logic compared
to traditional statistical models, we will convince more scientists to consider applying fuzzy
logic and other A I techniques when they investigate global change. We shall restrict our
examples to analyses of relationships between spawning stock and recruitment, the most
important and generally most difficult problem in the biological assessment of fisheries
(Hilborn and Walters 1992).
(8.1)
where St is spawner abundance or biomass in year t, and Rt is the resulting recruitment. The
parameters a and b have biological interpretations; a measures productivity and b measures
density dependence. The error t is assumed to be normally distributed as N 0, 2 . Ricker
curves typically rise from the origin to a maximum, then bend over and decline as spawning
levels increase, indicating reduced recruitment at higher spawner abundance. The greater
the a parameter, the steeper the slope near the origin and the larger the b parameter, the
more quickly density independence takes effect. If b is zero, model (8.1) is the socalled
densityindependent S R model, which indicates constant survival. This Ricker model (Eq.
(8.1)) can be extended to incorporate environmental variables (Hilborn and Walters 1992;
Chen and Ware 1999; Chen and Irvine 2001) producing the Ricker climatic model:
Rt = St exp (a bSt + E Vt + t ) ,
(8.2)
199
We can estimate the model parameters a, b and by multiple linear regression and test the
significance of b in model (8.3) as well as the significance of incorporating environmental
variables in model (8.4). If is not statistically significant, we conclude the environmental
variable (E V) has no significance on the Ricker model (8.3).
200
1.0
(a) Regime 1
(b) Regime 2
0.5
0.5
EV (e.g. SST or PDO)
1.0 0
0.5
EV (e.g. SST or PDO)
1.0
Figure 8.1. Illustration of fuzzy membership function (F MF) for the environmental variable
(E V) corresponding to fuzzy sets in two regimes with the E V rescaled between 0 and 1.
Assuming that regimes 1 and 2 correspond to warm and cold, the dashed lines in (a)
and (b) illustrate the traditional crisp thinking that it is warm if S ST is greater than the
time series average (E V > 0.5) and it is cold otherwise. The solid line in (a) and (b)
illustrate the fuzzy membership function.
However, this approach has limitations, for instance it is easy to misclassify those years
close to the longterm time series mean. As well, potentially useful information may be
ignored since environmental information is not used in model fitting (the S R data from the
warm years are not used in fitting the S R model to the data from cool years and vice
versa).
In general, categorical classification approaches, such the dichotomous warm vs.
cool, positive vs. negative, and good vs. bad impose subjective breakpoints
on a continuously varying factor. Fuzzy logic allows us to implement a nondichotomous,
multivalued approach that can lead to improved S R analysis. Fuzzy reasoning is particularly wellsuited to investigating whether stock productivity or density dependent patterns
differ among regimes (Mackinson et al. 1999; Chen et al. 2000; Chen 2001).
201
Figure 8.2. Stockrecruitment data for 5 populations of Pacific salmon, Pacific herring and
Pacific halibut. Solid lines and s are Ricker S R model fits and data correspond to the cold
S ST or negative P DO years and dashed lines and s correspond to the warm S ST or
positive P DO years. Actual numbers of salmon spawners and recruits are 1,000 times
numbers given.
membership values from the premise part are combined through a min operator to determine the firing strength (weight) of each rule, in order to generate a qualified consequent
(either fuzzy or crisp) of each rule depending on this firing strength. Second, the qualified
consequents are aggregated to produce a crisp output as the defuzzification operation.
Several types of fuzzy reasoning have been proposed (Lee 1990) that depend on the
types of fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy ifthen rules employed. Takagi and Sugeno (1983)
proposed the most commonly used model. In this model, the output of each rule is a linear
combination of input variables plus a constant term, with the final model output being the
weighted average of each rules output. We will illustrate the process by constructing a
fuzzy logic model for fish stock recruitment. Only E V will be input in the fuzzification
process where it will be transformed from crisp inputs into two fuzzy sets, corresponding
to two separate regimes.
202
(8.8)
(8.9)
Step 2: Generate the consequent of each rule depending on the membership values. For
each Rule i, the output from the consequent part is calculated by the function
defined in (8.6) and (8.7) as:
yt1 = a1 b1 St (for regime 1)
(8.10)
(8.11)
Step 3: The final output of the fuzzy logic model is inferred from the two rules by a
defuzzification process to compute the weighted average as:
yt =
(8.12)
203
M SE (a1 , a2 , b1 , b2 ) =
1 n
(yt yt )2
n t=1
1 n
[yt (wt1 yt1 + wt2 yt2 )]2
n t=1
1 n
[yt wt1 (a1 b1St ) wt2 (a2 b2St )]2
n t=1
(8.13)
(8.14)
These parameters are estimated by minimizing (8.14), which is equivalent to the least
square estimation (L SE):
Y = XB
(8.15)
where Y =
(y1 ,. . . , yn ) is an n 1 vector of observed fish stock productivity indices defined
as yt = log RStt , B = (a1 , b1 , a2 , b2 ) is a 4 1 parameter vector, and
..
..
..
X = ...
.
.
.
wn1 wn1 Sn wn2 wn2 Sn
is an n 4 matrix constituted by observed fish spawner biomass and the E V index. The
parameter vector can be estimated by:
1
X Y.
B = X X
204
Table 8.1. Summary statistics for model 1 (Ricker model (8.3)), Model 2 (Ricker
climatic model (8.4)), model 3 (crisp regime S R model in Section 8.3.), and model 4
(fuzzy logic model in Section 8.4.). The duration of each time series in years is given
in parentheses. Populations included in the analysis are West coast Vancouver Island
chinook salmon, Fraser River chum salmon, Babine River (Skeena watershed) coho
salmon, Fraser River pink salmon, Fraser River sockeye salmon, West coast
Vancouver Island Pacific herring, and Pacific halibut.
Criteria
Models
Chinook (17)
Chum (29)
Coho (52)
Pink (16)
Sockeye (31)
Herring (42)
Halibut (60)
1.07
0.62
0.58
0.53
0.69
1.01
0.23
R MSE
2
3
1.01
0.63
0.57
0.52
0.64
0.98
0.21
1.06
0.58
0.58
0.47
0.67
0.98
0.22
R2
A IC
1.03
0.57
0.58
0.54
0.64
0.95
0.19
0.15
0.44
0.44
0.41
0.21
0.36
0.81
0.29
0.45
0.46
0.45
0.34
0.42
0.85
0.56
0.69
0.81
0.89
0.88
0.46
0.99
0.58
0.71
0.81
0.86
0.89
0.51
0.99
52.5
56.8
92.5
26.6
67.1
123.3
-3.4
51.3
58.6
92.5
27.4
63.3
120.9
-14.1
53.6
54.1
95.1
30.2
66.6
122.1
-0.5
52.8
53.7
94.4
29.1
64.5
119.9
- 17.6
205
1-b
2-E V
4-a
4-b
Chinook
Chum
Coho
Pink
Sockeye
Herring
Halibut
NS
S
S
S
S
S
S
NS
NS
NS
NS
S
S
S
NS
NS
NS
NS
S
S
NS
NS
NS
NS
NS
NS
S
S
3 and 4).
Therefore, the fuzzy logic model is used to test whether:
1. there was a significant difference in stock productivity between regimes 1 and 2, i.e.
H0 : a1 = a2 (Tab. 8.2, column 4-a); and
2. densitydependent effects were significant between regimes, i.e.
(Tab. 8.2, column 4-b).
H0 : b1 = b2
If neither were significant, that would indicate that the stock was not affected by the environmental variable (E V) and, therefore, the simple Ricker S R model (8.3) would be appropriate for stock recruitment analysis (Fig. 8.3). Differences were not significant for chinook,
chum, coho, and pink salmon, which was consistent with our earlier finding that S STA
did not improve the Ricker model. For data sets like these, the simple Ricker S R model
(8.3) would be appropriate for stock recruitment analysis. However, the fuzzy logic model
demonstrated that there was a significant difference in productivity between regimes for
sockeye salmon, there were significant differences in densitydependence for halibut, and
both parameters varied between regimes for herring (Fig. 8.3).
8.6. Conclusion
Fuzzy logic models consistently outperformed traditional stockrecruitment approaches as
measured by several diagnostic criteria. Data sets were highly variable in terms of length
and contrast, as is often the case in this type of work. The standard Ricker model was
significant for datasets from six of seven populations (species) examined. Including an
environmental variable without applying fuzzy reasoning improved the fit of the Ricker
model in all cases, and further improvements were made when the environmental data were
206
Figure 8.3. Stockrecruitment data with the radius of the bullets () proportional to the
magnitude of fuzzy membership values of the E V in Fig. 8.1: the higher the E V, the larger
the radius. The lines are the resultant S R models. For chinook, chum, coho and pink
salmon, there is only one combined Ricker model since there were no significant changes
between the two regimes. For sockeye, there are different Ricker productivity parameters in
the two regimes, for herring, both a and b are different, and for halibut, the bs are different.
assigned a membership function to particular regimes using a fuzzy logic approach. For
three of the populations (species), a fuzzy logic approach identified significant differences
in productivity and/or density dependent effects between regimes.
The application of fuzzy logic is not restricted to the simplistic examples of two regimes
presented here. For instance, there appear to have been 11 regime shifts in the North Pacific
since 1650 (Gedalof and Smith 2001). The fuzzy logic approach in Section 8.4. can be
easily adopted and extended to multiple regimes by using multiple ifthen rules. We suggest
a reasonable approach often is to start with testing for effects of two possible regimes as
we did in this Chapter. If there is no detectable significance between the two regimes, as
we found for most of our Pacific salmon data sets, there is no need to develop a procedure
for more regimes. If differences between regimes are significant, as we found with sockeye
salmon, herring and halibut, then the possibility of multiple regimes should be considered.
Fuzzy logic can also be used to investigate the possibility of climate change occurring
207
without regime shifts by setting fuzzy membership values between 0 and 1. For instance,
Mackinson et al. (1999) suggested that rules be combined in a fuzzy system using a simple
weighting factor to account for a systematic longterm influence of E Vs on recruitment
success.
Peterman et al. (2003) recently demonstrated the value of using a Kalman filter when
evaluating temporal patterns in productivity. Bristol Bay sockeye salmon productivities increased rapidly, corresponding to a regime shift in the mid1970s, but trends were more
complex than indicated by the simple step functions used by many earlier workers. However, Peterman et al. (2003) did not investigate mechanisms for the productivity changes
they found. Fuzzy reasoning could be a powerful next step used to evaluate the correlation
between environmental variables and productivity in analyses such as these.
Major changes to marine ecosystems resulting from global climate variation pose enormous challenges to those responsible for the assessment and management of fishery and
other resources. The successful implementation of policies that will enable sustainable
fisheries, especially during period of climate change, will require a good understanding of
relationships between numbers of spawners and the subsequent recruitment, and how these
relationships are affected by climate change. In this Chapter we showed the usefulness of
fuzzy systems in evaluating simple examples of climate change. Chen and Ware (1999)
used a neural network model with a fuzzy logic based decisionmaking procedure to select
allpossible neural network models. Saila (1996) reviewed possible applications of A I to
fishery research including the neural network and fuzzy logic models with genetic algorithms to natural resource management and ecological modeling. Other A I methodologies
described in this book can also provide advantages over traditional techniques in the analyses of S R relationships (for other examples of applications in fisheries, cf. Chapter 3).
Science is at an exciting stage in terms of the development and application of A I methodologies and we encourage scientists to investigate the possibility of applying the various A I
methods described throughout this book.
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