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Interested Parties
Pete Brodnitz, Expedition Strategies
Recent polling results in Floridas 26th Congressional District
September 26, 2016

The results of our recent poll of likely general election voters in Floridas 26th Congressional District shows
that former Congressman Joe Garcia is a strong general election candidate and that there is a path to
victory against Representative Carlos Curbelo in this swing district.
A Majority of Voters Say Curbelo Is Doing a Fair/Poor Job as Congressman
Before hearing any messages from either candidate, a majority (52%) of voters say Carlos Curbelo is
doing a fair/poor job as Congressman, while 27% rate his performance as excellent/good.
How would you rate the job Carlos Curbelo is doing as
Congressman?
All

Difference
Total Ex/GD
Excellent
Good
Total Fr/Pr
Fair
Poor
Dont know

-25
27
6
20
52
36
16
21

Garcia Leads By One On The Initial Ballot But Voters Favor Garcia By Five Points After Positive
Information About Both Candidates
The initial ballot after undecided voters are pushed to see which way they lean and measured before
respondents heard any messages about any candidate shows Garcia with a one point lead (47% say
they will vote for Garcia, 46% say they will vote for Curbelo, and 7% are undecided). However, after we
gave voters a short positive paragraph about each of the candidates, Garcia leads by 5% (47% Garcia,
42% Curbelo, and 10% undecided).
If the election for Congress were held today, would you be voting
for?

Difference
Democrat Joe Garcia
Republican Carlos Curbelo
Dont know

Initial Ballot
With Leaners

Ballot After
Candidate Profiles
Without Leaners

+1
47
46
7

+5
47
42
10

Arlington, VA
info@expeditionstrategies.com

A Majority of Voters Are Favorable Towards President Obama and Approve of the Job He Is Doing
President Obama is popular (59% say they are favorable towards him, 41% say they are unfavorable)
and a majority (53%) say he is doing an excellent/good job as President, while 47% say he is doing a
fair/poor job.

Positive
Negative

Obama Favorability
59% favorable
41% unfavorable

Obama Job Approval

53% excellent/good
47% fair/poor

The Presidential Race Favors Secretary Clinton by Double Digits

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 13% (49% say they will vote for Clinton, 36% say they will vote for
Trump, 9% say they will vote for a third party candidate, and 5% are undecided).
If the November 2016 election for President
were held today and the candidates were for
whom would you vote?
All

Difference
Democrat Hillary Clinton
Republican Donald Trump
Libertarian Gary Johnson
Green Party candidate Jill Stein
Dont know

+13
49
36
7
2
5

After Hearing Both Positive and Critical Messages About Both Candidates, Garcia Leads by Eight
After hearing messages for and against both candidates, Garcia leads by eight points (48% say they will
vote for Garcia, 40% say they will vote for Curbelo, and 12% are undecided).
If the election for Congress were held today, would you be voting for?
Initial Ballot
With Leaners

Difference
Democrat Joe Garcia
Republican Carlos Curbelo
Dont know

+1
47
46
7

Ballot After Candidate Ballot After Candidate

Profiles
Criticisms Without
Without Leaners
Leaners

+5
47
42
10

+8
48
40
12

Expedition Strategies conducted 412 total interviews in Floridas 26th Congressional District September 914, 2016. Respondents were given the option to take the survey in Spanish. The margin of error for
overall results is 4.83%. Expedition Strategies polled for former Congressman Joe Garcia during his
2012 and 2014 elections. Other clients include Senator Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Mazie Hirono (HI),
Congressman Adam Smith (WA), and Congressman Tim Walz (MN).

FL-26 CD Poll Results 2