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Asia-Pacific
POWER GENERATION
Driving demand: The surge in Indias auto industry has seen oil demand rocket and jammed Kolkatas traffic
38
Asia-Pacific
to present demand levels, says
the OIES Sen.
More tempered forecasts
come from the International
Energy Agency (IEA), whose
base-case (New Policies) scenario sees Indian oil demand
jumping by a fifth to 4.8m b/d
in 2020, compared with 4m
b/d in 2015. That is a strong
rise in percentage terms, but
could be less significant in
terms of barrels.
I definitely think well see
strong Indian demand growth
maybe averaging around
4-5% over the next couple of
years but due to its small
absolute size this wont likely
outpace China in barrel terms,
at least this decade, says Matthew Parry, a senior oil markets analyst at the IEA.
Despite plans to ration road
use, coupled with a temporary
ban on new diesel-car registrations in Delhi, oil demand in
India remains strong, and will
rise about 5.7% to 4.2 million
barrels per day in 2016, a conservative estimate from the
IEA shows.
I know recently India has
been strong but I dont think
its fully sustainable, said Parry recently.
Through sheer dint of its
size and population, India
nonetheless has the potential to provide the kind of demand-side shock that China
did earlier this century.
Working on progress But
2020
2030
2040
0.1
0.1
0.2
LPG
0.5
0.7
1.1
1.4
Naptha
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
Motor gasoline
0.4
0.6
1.0
1.9
Kerosene
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
Diesel
1.4
1.8
2.6
3.5
Fuel Oil
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
Ethane
Other products
0.8
1.0
1.4
1.9
Total
3.8
4.8
7.0
9.8
Source: IEA
2020
2030
2040
Oil demand
3.8
4.8
7.0
9.8
Of which fractionation
products*
0.5
0.8
1.2
1.6
Refinery products
demand
3.2
4.1
5.8
8.2
4.5
4.9
5.8
7.6
Domestic crude
supply
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
Crude balance
-3.7
-4.3
-5.4
-7.2
Refined products
balance
1.3
0.6
-0.2
-0.9
Fractionation products
balance
-0.3
-0.5
-0.9
-1.1
*LPG and Ethane, as well as the portion of naptha/natural gasoline that is produced
during gas fractionation
Source: IEA
ANALYSIS
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