Zika Tradeoff DA

1NC
Uniqueness and link
Latin America is a Zika hotspot Southcom research facilities
are the key defense point, reducing mission changes the game
Pellerin 16

Cheryl Pellerin Southcom Commander: Illicit Networks Are Regions Greatest

Security Challenge , http://www.defense.gov/-News-Article-View/Article/789126/southcom-commander-illicitnetworks-are-regions-greatest-security-challenge June 2nd 2016/////DS)

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Zika virus outbreaks
occurred in areas of Africa, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands before 2015 . In May
2015, the Pan American Health Organization issued an alert regarding the first
confirmed Zika virus infections in Brazil. Outbreaks now are occurring in many countries and
territories. On Feb. 1, CDC says, the World Health Organization declared a public health
emergency of international concern because of clusters of microcephaly and other
neurological disorders in some areas affected by Zika, for which CDC travel warnings include
many countries in the Caribbean and Central and South America. Tidd says Southcom supports U.S.
national and multinational efforts in two areas -- understanding the transmission
vectors -- primarily mosquitoes -- and helping with their eradication, and
contributing to the international medical research effort to develop a Zika virus
vaccine. The mosquito-borne vector is well understood in this part of the world, he added, going all the way back
to U.S involvement in digging the Panama Canal and dealing with the mosquito-borne viruses responsible for yellow
fever and malaria. More recently [mosquito-borne

diseases] dengue and chikungunya have a

much more immediate deadly impact that we've been paying attention to for some
time down there, the admiral added, and the protective measures that we take for Zika
are the same measures we take for dengue fever and chikungunya . Zika Eradication,
Research Partner nations in the region know whats required for mosquito eradication,
which Tidd called a labor-intensive challenge, particularly in an urban setting. For the
vaccine effort, the Defense Department funds he in Lima, Peru, co-hosted with the Peruvian
Navy, he said, noting that the unit is working closely with CDC and other
international partners and themselves doing cutting edge work on world class
virology and bacteriology studies.

Zika will infect millions

Messer 4/25 (Luke, Rep. US House of Reps, Let's stop Zika in its tracks,
http://www.greensburgdailynews.com/opinion/columns/let-s-stop-zika-in-its-tracks/article_05e3d167-f8ac-5aa7-bff970c3de98c970.html)

Zika Virus is a bit scarier than we initially thought. That was the warning
from a Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention spokesperson during a White

House briefing this week. It was a pretty unsettling update that made headlines
across the country, and for good reason. The virus, which is typically spread by
mosquitos, started to move quickly through Brazil last May. Since then,
thousands of people in dozens of countries have been infected by Zika, including
residents of both Indiana and Ohio who contracted the virus overseas. In fact, the
World Health Organization declared the Zika virus a global health emergency
that could infect more than 4 million people by the end of the year. And,
right now, there are no known vaccines, treatments, or rapid diagnostic
tests for the virus. Thats why Congress acted quickly this week to encourage
researchers, scientists, and pharmaceutical companies to find a cure before Zika
becomes a problem in the U.S.

Diseases cause extinction; take-outs dont apply

Bissell 5 (Rick, U of Maryland, FEMA staff, Future Challenges to Human Survival in the 21st Century,
https://training.fema.gov/hiedu/docs/emfuture/future%20of%20em%20-%20future%20challenges%20to%20human%20survival
%20in%20the%2021.doc)

New and emerging infectious diseases, actually we have two problems here .

There is the generation of

new diseases, that is, diseases that were unknown to humans and for which we have no,
in our bodies, specific immune response, and for which we have no immediate response within
the health care system. We also have new variants of existing diseases, influenza
for example, Avian Flu being one that we are currently concerned with, WHO has put out recent warnings
about the spread of Avian Flu outside of East Asia as a significant threat to world health. We know well enough
about some of the other new diseases, SARS, HIV, AIDS, etc. I am sure you heard Kofi Anan
recently mention that the world is losing its battle at the current time against AIDS and the population that is
threatened by this, particularly outside the United States, and in the continent of Africa, is of such large proportions
that it overwhelms the imagination. Do we need to think of this kind of threat as a hazard in our definition of
emergency management? Bioterrorism has helped us move toward overcoming the barrier between public health
and emergency management.

Microbes can be weaponized and easily distributed and we have

some of these
weaponized microbes can be genetically altered so that they can bypass any of the
vaccines that we currently have. Microbes are adept at adapting to the pharmacopia we
have, so even known microbes present significant challenge to us in the future. In the 1960s and the 1970s we
very naively thought we had done away with infectious diseases as a major threat to
human survival, now we know better. Microbes are a lot smarter than we had thought
found particularly through research on Russian work, Soviet work on bioterrorism weapons that

they were.

Internal Links Disease

Mosquito Eradification Solves

Southcom is the only line of defense
Fox 13 (Maggie, staff @ Today, Health & Wellness, New map shows where Zika
mosquitoes live in U.S., http://www.today.com/health/new-map-shows-where-zikamosquitoes-live-u-s-t97896)
With 40 million travelers going back and forth from the U.S. to Zika-affected regions every year, it's inevitable that
some will come back infected. The CDC has documented 618 Zika cases in the continental U.S. and
experts say thousands more are almost certain to have gone unreported. The CDC knows of 195 pregnant women

the U.S. has tried but

failed to wipe out the yellow fever mosquito. "The program to eradicate Ae. aegypti
from the continental United States never reached its ultimate goal and was terminated in 1969
due to lack of funds," it says.
with Zika in the continental U.S. and 146 in U.S. territories. The report notes that

Eradication funding is critical to avoid an epidemic

AFP 6/12 (Agence France Presse, Florida health warriors deploy in war on Zika,
http://www.muscatdaily.com/Archive/World/Florida-health-warriors-deploy-in-war-on-Zika4qei)

Florida's hot, wet climate "has all the environmental conditions for an
epidemic," said Carlos Espinal, head of the Florida International University Global
Health Consortium and an expert in tropical diseases. The best way to
stop the spread of Zika is to kill off Aedes aegypti mosquitos, which
breed in even tiny pools of stagnant water -- the mammoth task facing Varas and
his fellow inspectors. But given the size of Florida "there will not be
enough inspectors to cover the territory," Espinal told AFP. "This is a job
that has to be done not only by the health service, but by the community."
Coordinated work between community leaders and county health officials to
destroy the Aedes aegypti larvae is "very important," he said. Health

authorities are especially frustrated by Washington's delay in

releasing more federal funds to fight the virus. Tom Frieden, head of the
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), is working feverishly to
convince Congress to approve the $1.9 billion to fight Zika that President Barack
Obama asked for in February.

Spillover
Zika response creates a global model for disease response
Blumenthal 5/16 (Susan, Senior Fellow in Health Policy at New America, Senior Policy
and Medical Advisor at amfAR (The Foundation for AIDS Research), and a Clinical Professor at
Tufts and Georgetown University Schools of Medicine, The Zika Virus: Pandemic
Preparedness Is Needed Now!, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/susan-blumenthal/the-zikavirus-pandemic-p_b_9959026.html)

Obama Administration requested $1.86 billion to fight the Zika

Congress is currently debating this funding request. Given the urgency of Zika as a
public health threat, on April 6, 2016, the Administration redirected $589 million in unspent
funding to combat the Ebola virus to fight the Zika epidemic. Of this amount, $47 million goes to NIAID for Zika
On February 8, 2016, the
epidemic. The

research. As of February 16, 2016, WHO committed $56 million, and two days later, the World Bank committed

This level of support is not sufficient to fight this pandemic! It is critical to

mobilize the resources needed to fight this disease. Failure to do so would be a major public
health and political mistake with potentially devastating health and economic consequences . By investing in
research towards the discovery of a vaccine and antiviral treatments, human suffering
and the long-term costs of caring for cases of people with microcephaly, GBS, and ADEM can be averted.
Additionally, the results should pay dual dividends to help fight other infectious
$150 million.

diseases

as well.

mosquito control Its a model

Szabo 4/26 (Liz, staff @ USA Today, U.S. fight against Zika mosquito depends on local effort,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/04/25/us-fight-against-zika-mosquito-depends-localeffort/82787666/)

With no approved Zika vaccine or treatment, experts said the best way to
prevent the spread of the virus is to control the mosquito, a species called
Aedes aegypti. The stakes are high: If the virus gains a foothold in the USA
as it has in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America, children born of infected
mothers could suffer catastrophic birth defects. The virus may also increase
the risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome, which causes paralysis. Fighting mosquitoes
is fundamentally a local battle led by a patchwork of 700 mosquito-control
districts and more than 1,000 other programs within local governments. In some
cities, mosquito control is handled by sophisticated professionals with
multimillion dollar budgets. In other communities, mosquito control is more of
an afterthought, tacked onto other programs, such as the parks and
recreation. More than 60 million Americans live in the five states along the Gulf
Coast Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas which could bear
the brunt of Zika outbreaks. Communities along the Gulf and elsewhere must
control their own mosquito populations and cannot depend solely on
federal public health agencies, such as the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center
for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. "There's not going to be some national
team to come in and save you," Osterholm said. "The CDC doesn't have the
resources to be in every community. It's not the national health department.
That would be like asking the FBI to provide local police service." President Obama

asked Congress for nearly $1.9 billion in emergency Zika funding in February, but
Congress has not approved the request. As an emergency measure, Obama
transferred $510 million in unspent Ebola funds to the Zika fight, but public health
officials said the country will need much more to prepare for and respond to
Zika. The CDC wants communities to draw up Zika action plans and has set
up a model program for communities to reference. It will release millions of
dollars in grants for Zika planning and response but only to states that submit a
"checklist of readiness activities," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said. No one has a
specific measure on whether or how well localities are preparing for possible Zika
cases, at least until all those action plans come in.

Collaboration Key
Collaboration key
Minnesota Daily 6/8 (Zika aid is not a bargaining chip,
http://www.mndaily.com/opinion/editorials/2016/06/07/zika-aid-not-bargaining-chip)

The Senate and the House remain locked to find necessary funds for
combating the Zika virus, a mosquito-transmitted disease that could result in
microcephaly. The House diced the Senates proposition for funding by half
and provided only a third of President Obamas request. To make matters worse,
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan issued a statement conflating pesticide
regulation with efforts to combat the Zika virus. He argued that
weakening EPA regulations would allow stronger pesticides that could kill Zikacarrying mosquitos. Such a misapprehension characterizes a GOP
agenda aimed at regulating and downsizing the EPA, a rhetoric that
could have dangerous implications for Americans. U.S. Sen. Al Franken and U.S. Sen.
Amy Klobuchar recently met with researchers and health officials to determine the
best strategy to eradicate the spread of the Zika virus. These kinds of discussions
are particularly important because they demonstrate the need for
collaboration and the importance of emergency preparedness. We
believe that congressional response to the Zika virus ought to be more
robust. It is erroneous to treat the issue of Zika lightly, especially when the virus
has the potential to harm many people. Further, the issue of public health is

not a bargaining chip or a trade-off point for political gain.

Impacts

Disease Extinction
Diseases cause extinction
DUJS 9 (Dartmouth Undergraduate Jnl of Science, Spr, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our
Fate, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/2009/05/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate/#.VyKIyjArJhE)

In the past, humans have indeed fallen victim to viruses.

Perhaps the best-known case was

While
vaccines have been developed for the plague and some other infectious diseases,
new viral strains are constantly emerging a process that maintains the possibility
of a pandemic-facilitated human extinction.
the bubonic plague that killed up to one third of the European population in the mid-14th century (7).

Its the most likely existential risk checks stop all other
impacts
Harack 3/21 (Ben, staff @ Vision of the Earth, How likely is human extinction due to a natural
pandemic?, http://www.visionofearth.org/future-of-humanity/existential-risks/human-extinction-bynatural-pandemic/)
Unsurprisingly, estimates of this risk vary wildly; even expert commentators tend to be highly uncertain about the
odds. Predictions also tend to lump together several different kinds of pandemics and thus can make the future
sound much more dangerous than it really is. For example,

a concerned expert may estimate that

there is 50% chance of a global pandemic

during the 21st century. Taken at face value this is

extremely frightening, but with further scrutiny it becomes clear that the vast majority of that probability would be
diseases with low death rates and certainly not pandemics that have a chance of killing all of humanity.
Furthermore, most expert risk estimates also include pandemics that are deliberately caused by humans (through
viral engineering). In this sense, pandemics are similar to climate change: our advancing technology means that we
can now cause catastrophes of these kinds. In both cases, human action is much more dangerous than what nature
can throw at us. Human-caused catastrophes are a real danger that should be taken very seriously, but for the

Rolling several publicized predictions

together with what weve learned, we arrive at this estimate of extinction risk: 1 in
100,000 chance per year (or 1 in 1000 per century). This estimate places natural pandemics
as the single greatest risk among the natural existential risks we consider to be the most
present discussion we are focusing on natural existential risks.

dangerous.

Disease Timeframe
Disease is the fastest, most probable route to extinction
Byrne 9 (Mark, On Human Survival: By Means of Reason and
Common Sense On Human Survival: By Means of Reason and Common
Sense, p. 16)
According to The World Health Report 2007, "infectious

diseases are now spreading geographically

much faster than at any time in history.'"' We live in an age where we travel more efficiently and
frequently to further reaches of the Earth. We come in contact with more diverse cultures, ones that one hundred

Thus, a disease can be spread to all parts of the

planet with tremendous rapidity. The importance of our need to closely monitor
infectious disease is of the utmost, as it appears a global pandemic is one of the most
probable threats to our survival.
years ago we could only read about in books.

Only takes months

Newitz 14 (7/3, Annalee, staff @ Gizmodo, 7 Global Apocalypse Scenarios That Might Really
Happen, http://io9.gizmodo.com/7-global-apocalypse-scenarios-that-might-really-happen1599781413)
There's nothing that a pandemic disease loves more than city life, with lots of life forms squashed into close

time is ripe for a deadly global

pandemic, because half of Homo sapiens lives in cities plus, we have airline
travel, so we can ship the pandemic disease around the globe in less than 24 hours. If the
disease is virulent enough, humanity could be wiped out in a matter of months.
quarters with each other, hopefully without much sanitation. And the

Disease Probability
We outweigh on probability 10 million deaths ensured from
pandemics
Daschle & Klain 4/26 (Tom & Ron, former Congressman & White House Ebola Response
Coordinator in 2014-15, Daschle and Klain: We're not ready for next Zika virus,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/04/26/zika-ebola-anthrax-biothreats-preparedness-daschleklain/83548560/)

In the aftermath of the anthrax attacks of 2001, the Ebola outbreak of 2014
and now Zika, it is no longer a question of if but when the next biosecurity
threat will occur. In fact, experts believe a pandemic, not nuclear terrorism
or climate change, is most likely to cause 10 million or more deaths in a
single event.

Disease Brink Now

Were on the brink of an epidemic Only funding stops the
disease from spreading
Doggett 6/12 (Lloyd, D-TX, U.S. Senate, Fighting the Zika virus federal funding delays are
intolerable, http://laprensasa.com/news/editorials/fighting-zika-virus-federal-funding-delaysintolerable/)

Many public health experts warn that we are on the cusp of an

epidemic in the U.S. Mike Merchant, a Texas A&M insect specialist, said that the clock is ticking
right now as mosquitos start breeding and biting in the hotter , warmer and
wetter weather. According to experts, its no longer a question of if the virus will
come, but when. We should not panic, but we must prepare. Despite warnings from the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Republicans in Congress have shown a stunning amount of
indifference toward this looming public health crisis. I spoke on the House floor in support of full funding of the
CDCs plan, yet my colleagues in the majority passed a bill that provides one out of every five dollars the CDC
needs. When federal funding wasnt promptly delivered, the CDC was forced to take money out of Ebola response
and state emergency preparedness funds. Concerned for our community, I spoke directly with CDC Director Dr. Tom

without
proper funding, we lose the ability to effectively monitor people
infected with Zika and control the mosquitos around them, putting
their neighbors at risk.
Frieden to learn how this reduced funding would affect plans to protect us from Zika. He warned that

Epidemic risk grows daily

King 6/13 (Ledyard, staff @ Tallahassee Democrat, Talks on a Zika bill to start in coming
days, http://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2016/06/13/talks-zika-bill-start-comingdays/85818908/)

Florida leads the continental United States by far in Zika cases. The
175 reported so far spread among 20 counties (including three new cases Friday)
means roughly one of every four people diagnosed with Zika on the mainland lives
in the Sunshine State. And with warm, humid weather beginning to

smother the Gulf Coast and South Atlantic, experts say the threat of
a potential epidemic grows every day.

Delays cause epidemics Every day matters

AP 6/13 (Associated Press, CDC director: Funding delay hurts fight against Zika,
http://auburnpub.com/ap/lifestyles/cdc-director-funding-delay-hurts-fight-against-zika/article_dbb69259-658e-5dec8e89-76e3c4e6ce94.html)

Epidemics can spread in days and weeks and the sooner that
Congress acts on Zika funding the better, a top U.S health official said on
Thursday. "We really need to make sure that Congress acts quickly," Dr.
Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said.
"Give us the money so we can work with American women and

children and families to monitor the effects of Zika, so we can do a

better job at killing mosquitoes to protect American women, and so
we can develop better tools to diagnose Zika, to control mosquitoes

and ultimately, with NIH in the lead, to find a vaccine to protect women," he
said during an appearance in Atlanta.

Each day is key

Columbus Dispatch 6/12

(Editorials from around Ohio,

http://www.ccenterdispatch.com/news/state/article_07fca387-046f-58cf-8c3d-f74caa9e20e9.html)

It's disappointing that congressional Republicans are holding up federal funding

needed to stop the spread of the Zika virus. Every day that passes without a

full-on assault in the research lab and with education allows a

frightening health threat to grow. Just as federal response to the HIV/AIDS
epidemic was slowed by an abdication of leadership, political ideology is
trumping public health with Zika funding. With 14 confirmed cases
in Ohio, including one woman from central Ohio who tested positive in late May
after a trip to the Dominican Republic, there's no time to waste in
combating the mosquito-borne virus... It would cost much more to
educate and provide medical care should thousands of babies be
born with microcephaly, a birth defect linked to Zika that causes an
abnormally small head and brain. For most people, Zika is a mere annoyance... But
for women who are pregnant or hope to be, Zika is terrifying... Congress should

follow the guidance of public-health experts in allocating the proper

amount of money and not allow partisanship and ideological budget
differences to let Zika advance. Congress can and should hold Obama
accountable for properly spending the money. But if Congress dithers, the
public can and should hold its members accountable, too.

Disease AT: No Zika Impact

Zika will infect millions
Messer 4/25 (Luke, Rep. US House of Reps, Let's stop Zika in its tracks,
http://www.greensburgdailynews.com/opinion/columns/let-s-stop-zika-in-its-tracks/article_05e3d167-f8ac-5aa7-bff970c3de98c970.html)

Zika Virus is a bit scarier than we initially thought. That was the warning
from a Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention spokesperson during a White
House briefing this week. It was a pretty unsettling update that made headlines
across the country, and for good reason. The virus, which is typically spread by
mosquitos, started to move quickly through Brazil last May. Since then,
thousands of people in dozens of countries have been infected by Zika, including
residents of both Indiana and Ohio who contracted the virus overseas. In fact, the
World Health Organization declared the Zika virus a global health emergency
that could infect more than 4 million people by the end of the year. And,
right now, there are no known vaccines, treatments, or rapid diagnostic
tests for the virus. Thats why Congress acted quickly this week to encourage
researchers, scientists, and pharmaceutical companies to find a cure before Zika
becomes a problem in the U.S.

Zika mutates
Balaconis 4/21

(Zoe, staff @ Romper, Why Zika Is Scarier Than You Think & Precautions Are
Necessary, https://www.romper.com/p/why-zika-is-scarier-than-you-think-precautions-are-necessary9368)

Currently, researchers are saying that mothers and their babies are most vulnerable
during the first trimester because that is when organs develop, but babies have also
been affected later in pregnancy. That 30 percent rate is incredibly scary, and
explains Brazil's and other infected countries' panic. Part of the reason
there are so many unknowns when it comes to Zika is that it is constantly
changing. According to TIME, it has multiple strains of variations and can
mutate incredibly quickly, making it difficult to combat.

Mutations cause mass death quickly

DUJS 9 (Dartmouth Undergraduate Jnl of Science, Spr, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our
Fate, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/2009/05/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate/#.VyKIyjArJhE)

for more easily transmitted viruses such as influenza, the evolution of new strains
could prove far more consequential. The simultaneous occurrence of antigenic drift (point
mutations that lead to new strains) and antigenic shift (the inter-species transfer of disease) in the influenza
virus could produce a new version of influenza for which scientists may not immediately
find a cure. Since influenza can spread quickly, this lag time could potentially lead to a global
influenza pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (9). The most recent scare of
However,

this variety came in 1918 when bird flu managed to kill over 50 million people around the world in what is
sometimes referred to as the Spanish flu pandemic. Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that

mutations were required to convert the original

into a human-viable strain .

viral

strain

only 25

which could only infect birds

Transmission is rapid; funding is key

Herald-Whig 4/25 (Federal funding crucial to battling Zika virus,
http://www.whig.com/article/20160425/ARTICLE/304259858#)

First, it's not just mosquito-borne; it also can be passed among humans via
sexual contact. That's alarming because an outbreak can really get rolling
when a pathogen can spread without the help of animals or insects. Because
symptoms are so mild, if present at all, many carriers of the virus may pass it along
without realizing they were infected. The more scientists learn about Zika, the worse
the news gets for the next generation. It is a factor in premature birth, blindness
and other defects in babies when their mothers are infected during pregnancy. And
the mosquito responsible for most of the spread of the infection ranges
more widely in the U.S. than thought just weeks ago: 30 states rather than just
12, including Illinois and Missouri. As the CDC's Anne Schuchat put it last week:
"This virus seems to be a bit scarier than we initially thought." Yes, it certainly is.
Zika infections are mounting quickly in the Americas (more than 800 have
been reported on U.S. turf alone, about half in Puerto Rico), and those numbers are
sure to explode once mosquito season gets going. More federal funding is
crucial to vaccine development and other programs to stop the virus'
spread.

US spread coming
Balaconis 4/21 (Zoe, staff @ Romper, Why Zika Is Scarier Than You Think & Precautions Are
Necessary, https://www.romper.com/p/why-zika-is-scarier-than-you-think-precautions-are-necessary9368)

The main reason the United States has not been more affected thus far is
because it is farther from the equator and the tropical climates where the main
carriers of Zika thrive: mosquitos. But, winter is decidedly over, and 2016 is
already seeing some record-breaking temperature highs. Soon enough,
mosquitos will swarm much of the United States, making an outbreak of
Zika very possible. All it would take is someone infected with the virus being
bitten, and then that mosquito biting someone else. Officials are predicting
outbreaks in southern, coastal areas. New Orleans is already taking
precautions to control the mosquito population this summer. According to The New
York Times, other cities at high risk include Miami, Houston, Biloxi, and Mobile.

2NC Economy Module

Diseases crush the economy
Daschle & Klain 4/26 (Tom & Ron, former Congressman & White House Ebola Response
Coordinator in 2014-15, Daschle and Klain: We're not ready for next Zika virus,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/04/26/zika-ebola-anthrax-biothreats-preparedness-daschleklain/83548560/)

The Blue Ribbon Study Panel observed that there is a lack of appreciation
both inside and outside the government for the extent, severity, and reality
of biological threats. But, as President Obamas National Security Council noted
in 2009, The effective dissemination of a lethal biological agent within an
unprotected population could place at risk the lives of hundreds of thousands
of people. The unmitigated consequences of such an event could overwhelm
our public health capabilities, potentially causing an untold number of
deaths. The economic cost could exceed one trillion dollars for each such
incident.

Economic decline causes great power wars

Jedidiah Royal 10, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the US
Department of Defense, Economic Integration, Economic Signalling and the
Problem of Economic Crises, chapter in Economics of War and Peace: Economic,
Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
rhythms in
the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power
and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as
economic crisis could usher in a redistribution of power (see also Gilpin, 1981) that leads to uncertainty about
power balances, increasing the risk of miscalc ulation (Fearon, 1995). Alternatively, even a relatively certain
First, on the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompsons (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that

redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner 1999).
Separately, Pollins (1996) also show that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major,
medium, and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain
unknown. Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland's (1996. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits
from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to
replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises
could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4

Blomberg and Hess

find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during
periods of economic downturn. They write, The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually
Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level.
(2002)

reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of a recession lends to amplify the
extent to which international and external conflicts self-rein force each other. (Blomberg & Hess. 2002. p. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with
an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. Hess. & Weerapana, 2004), which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external
tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. "Diversionary theory" suggests that, when facing unpopularity

governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military

conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. Wang (1996), DeRouen (1995), and Blombcrg. Mess, and
arising from economic decline, sitting

Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997), Miller (1999). and
Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the
fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided

periods of weak economic performance in the U nited States, and thus weak Presidential
are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.

evidence showing that

popularity,

--- Economy Internal Link

Economic costs of Zika are massive
Leefeldt 6/3 (Ed, award-winning investigative and business journalist who has worked for
Reuters, Bloomberg and Dow Jones, and contributed to the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times,
The true cost of Zika in the U.S. could be staggering, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-true-cost-ofzika-in-the-u-s-could-be-staggering/)

"The economic cost of Zika could be very high ," said Dr. Peter Hotez, microbiologist at Texas
Children's Hospital and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. Hotez will go
before a closed session of the U.S. Senate on the morning of June 8 along with other top U.S. health officials to
present the findings of their study of Zika, which focuses on the U.S. Gulf Coast. He said he couldn't be more
specific about the potential impact of the disease until his congressional testimony. No one, including the CDC,
health insurers or those with the best handle on it, such as the Kaiser Family Foundation, seems prepared to go out
on a limb and offer an estimate on the cost -- which could end up being abominably high ... or
absurdly low. This caution is admirable, but not helpful, when you consider what's at stake. Insurance companies
estimate costs on the basis of past experience, and while Zika isn't a new virus, its probable connection with the
birth defect microcephaly in newborns (abnormally small heads) has only recently come to light. Although the
epidemic is now centered in Brazil, it's spreading around the world as the virus "hitchhikes" on migrating
mosquitoes, travelers and possibly infected blood banks. Brazil expects 2,500 cases of microcephaly this year,
according to the World Health Organization (WHO). And with the active transmission of the virus throughout at least
62 countries and territories, including the Southern U.S. and Puerto Rico, carrying with it the danger of
microcephaly for pregnant women, it's not surprising that Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell
warned that Zika "has the significant potential to affect ... the health of Americans." But no one can predict how fast
or far it will spread here. How many women in the first four to five months of pregnancy will be bitten by infected
mosquitoes or be infected by sexual partners? Research has yet to show how long the virus remains in the body or
whether the patient develops immunities after an initial bite. Due to the lag between conception and birth, and
since summer is the worst season for mosquitoes, many of these cases won't become known until fall or winter,
when "clusters" could suddenly appear, particularly in areas that lack early detection of symptoms. Fetal
abnormalities generally are detected six months after the initial infection, according to WHO. Could these
mosquitoes be largely wiped out by spraying? Right now there's no way to tell. CDC Director Dr. Thomas Frieden
described this mosquito as "a sneaky cockroach" that can lay its eggs in a bottle cap and is a blood "sipper" that
likes to bite multiple people, making it the ideal transmission vehicle. A vaccine isn't an option until 2017 at the
earliest, and it would probably be rushed with minimal testing. It's also possible that giving a vaccine to pregnant
women might do more harm than good. But two things are predictable .

Without immediate forceful

mosquito -- which carries Zika and other dangerous viruses such as dengue fever,
chikungunya and yellow fever -- will bite a lot of people, many of them poor and without window screens or
action, the

Aedes aegypti

access to full-time air conditioning. In Puerto Rico, a likely hot spot for Zika this summer, estimates are that nearly

a million people could

be bitten and get the virus, many of them women who won't even know it
before giving birth to a microcephalic child, depending on the quality of their medical care. If the mosquito and Zika
epidemic aren't wiped out, one estimate is that 80 percent of the island could be vulnerable. Avoiding pregnancy
until the epidemic is over is one answer, but an estimated 20 percent of those who become pregnant there are high
school girls. Preventing pregnancy in this group could prove harder than stopping Zika. Children born with
microcephaly, which has no cure, will require long-term care if they survive. Some microcephalics can live normal
lives, but most suffer from severe disabilities. And while some could die early on from complications, a vast majority
will need care throughout their lives. In insurance lingo, this is referred to as a "long-tail" loss because the extent of
the damage isn't known and is paid out over many years. For example, children with Down syndrome can live well

the lifetime
cost of care for a microcephalic child would be somewhere between $1 million and
$10 million. Some of it would be borne by parents and relatives, but most of it would require the intervention of
into their 60s. During a recent webinar for the Kaiser Family Foundation, the CDC's Frieden said

either private insurance or the public health care system. Many of these children would probably be institutionalized
for at least part of their lives. So here's the speculative -- and very speculative at that -- math. The Center for
American Progress estimates that 2 million women in the U.S. will get pregnant this summer and fall, with nearly
half of them living in areas potentially at risk of Zika. It's important to note that the public policy group's analysis
isn't based on the actual prevalence of Zika around the country, while even if the virus spreads only a fraction of
women are likely to be infected. Still, if even just one in 10 gets Zika, the CDC estimates that up to 13 percent of
their unborn offspring could develop microcephaly .

If just 13,000 babies are born in the U.S. with

this disability

the cost of keeping them alive

and providing for their lifetime care could range from $13 billion to as much as $130 billion.
or to women who migrated here for better medical treatment,

2NC Famine Module

New diseases cause famine
Clark 10 (professor of microbiology at Southern Illinois University, David, Germs, Genes, and Civilization, p.
250-251)

livestock and crop plants suffer from

infections, too. Modern farmers tend to rely heavily on a few main crops, with little crop
rotation. Large areas of a single crop provide the same opportunities for plant
diseases that overcrowded cities provide for human infections. The warmer, wetter weather that is
becoming more prevalent favors fungal infections that attack plants. For example, wheat scab
outbreaks in the United States and Canada caused massive losses in the 1990s. Decreased surpluses in
the major grain exporters undermine the safety net for overpopulated third world
nations. If major drought in tropical areas such as Africa or India coincides with major crop losses in the grain
exporters, the result could be widespread famine . In 2006-2007, world grain reserves fell to 57 days
of consumption, the lowest since 1972. Perhaps the most serious current threat to our food
supply is the wheat rust fungus (Puccinia graminis). A new and highly virulent strain emerged from
We have focused on human disease, but remember that

Uganda in 1999 and was, therefore, named Ug99. It is presently in Africa and parts of Asia. Because the spores are
airborne, this fungus will inevitably
progress but takes several years.

spread worldwide.

Breeding resistant wheat varieties is in

That causes World War 3

Calvin 98 (theoretical neurophysiologist at the University of Washington, William H., The Atlantic Monthly, v281 i1
pcover,47-50,52+, infotrac)

The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling .

Plummeting crop yields would cause

some powerful countries to try to take over their neighbors or distant lands --if only
because their armies, unpaid and lacking food, would go marauding, both at home and across the borders. The
better-organized countries would attempt to use their armies, before they fell apart entirely,
to take over countries with significant remaining resources, driving out or starving their
inhabitants if not using modern weapons to accomplish the same end: eliminating competitors for the
remaining food. This would be a worldwide problem--and could lead to a Third World
War--but Europe's vulnerability is particularly easy to analyze. The last abrupt cooling, the Younger Dryas,
drastically altered Europe's climate as far east as Ukraine. Present-day Europe has more than 650 million people. It
has excellent soils, and largely grows its own food. It could no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the
North Atlantic.