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Uniqueness and link
Latin America is a Zika hotspot Southcom research facilities
are the key defense point, reducing mission changes the game
Pellerin 16
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Zika virus outbreaks
occurred in areas of Africa, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands before 2015 . In May
2015, the Pan American Health Organization issued an alert regarding the first
confirmed Zika virus infections in Brazil. Outbreaks now are occurring in many countries and
territories. On Feb. 1, CDC says, the World Health Organization declared a public health
emergency of international concern because of clusters of microcephaly and other
neurological disorders in some areas affected by Zika, for which CDC travel warnings include
many countries in the Caribbean and Central and South America. Tidd says Southcom supports U.S.
national and multinational efforts in two areas -- understanding the transmission
vectors -- primarily mosquitoes -- and helping with their eradication, and
contributing to the international medical research effort to develop a Zika virus
vaccine. The mosquito-borne vector is well understood in this part of the world, he added, going all the way back
to U.S involvement in digging the Panama Canal and dealing with the mosquito-borne viruses responsible for yellow
fever and malaria. More recently [mosquito-borne
Zika Virus is a bit scarier than we initially thought. That was the warning
from a Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention spokesperson during a White
House briefing this week. It was a pretty unsettling update that made headlines
across the country, and for good reason. The virus, which is typically spread by
mosquitos, started to move quickly through Brazil last May. Since then,
thousands of people in dozens of countries have been infected by Zika, including
residents of both Indiana and Ohio who contracted the virus overseas. In fact, the
World Health Organization declared the Zika virus a global health emergency
that could infect more than 4 million people by the end of the year. And,
right now, there are no known vaccines, treatments, or rapid diagnostic
tests for the virus. Thats why Congress acted quickly this week to encourage
researchers, scientists, and pharmaceutical companies to find a cure before Zika
becomes a problem in the U.S.
New and emerging infectious diseases, actually we have two problems here .
they were.
Florida's hot, wet climate "has all the environmental conditions for an
epidemic," said Carlos Espinal, head of the Florida International University Global
Health Consortium and an expert in tropical diseases. The best way to
stop the spread of Zika is to kill off Aedes aegypti mosquitos, which
breed in even tiny pools of stagnant water -- the mammoth task facing Varas and
his fellow inspectors. But given the size of Florida "there will not be
enough inspectors to cover the territory," Espinal told AFP. "This is a job
that has to be done not only by the health service, but by the community."
Coordinated work between community leaders and county health officials to
destroy the Aedes aegypti larvae is "very important," he said. Health
Spillover
Zika response creates a global model for disease response
Blumenthal 5/16 (Susan, Senior Fellow in Health Policy at New America, Senior Policy
and Medical Advisor at amfAR (The Foundation for AIDS Research), and a Clinical Professor at
Tufts and Georgetown University Schools of Medicine, The Zika Virus: Pandemic
Preparedness Is Needed Now!, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/susan-blumenthal/the-zikavirus-pandemic-p_b_9959026.html)
research. As of February 16, 2016, WHO committed $56 million, and two days later, the World Bank committed
diseases
as well.
With no approved Zika vaccine or treatment, experts said the best way to
prevent the spread of the virus is to control the mosquito, a species called
Aedes aegypti. The stakes are high: If the virus gains a foothold in the USA
as it has in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America, children born of infected
mothers could suffer catastrophic birth defects. The virus may also increase
the risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome, which causes paralysis. Fighting mosquitoes
is fundamentally a local battle led by a patchwork of 700 mosquito-control
districts and more than 1,000 other programs within local governments. In some
cities, mosquito control is handled by sophisticated professionals with
multimillion dollar budgets. In other communities, mosquito control is more of
an afterthought, tacked onto other programs, such as the parks and
recreation. More than 60 million Americans live in the five states along the Gulf
Coast Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas which could bear
the brunt of Zika outbreaks. Communities along the Gulf and elsewhere must
control their own mosquito populations and cannot depend solely on
federal public health agencies, such as the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center
for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. "There's not going to be some national
team to come in and save you," Osterholm said. "The CDC doesn't have the
resources to be in every community. It's not the national health department.
That would be like asking the FBI to provide local police service." President Obama
asked Congress for nearly $1.9 billion in emergency Zika funding in February, but
Congress has not approved the request. As an emergency measure, Obama
transferred $510 million in unspent Ebola funds to the Zika fight, but public health
officials said the country will need much more to prepare for and respond to
Zika. The CDC wants communities to draw up Zika action plans and has set
up a model program for communities to reference. It will release millions of
dollars in grants for Zika planning and response but only to states that submit a
"checklist of readiness activities," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said. No one has a
specific measure on whether or how well localities are preparing for possible Zika
cases, at least until all those action plans come in.
Collaboration Key
Collaboration key
Minnesota Daily 6/8 (Zika aid is not a bargaining chip,
http://www.mndaily.com/opinion/editorials/2016/06/07/zika-aid-not-bargaining-chip)
The Senate and the House remain locked to find necessary funds for
combating the Zika virus, a mosquito-transmitted disease that could result in
microcephaly. The House diced the Senates proposition for funding by half
and provided only a third of President Obamas request. To make matters worse,
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan issued a statement conflating pesticide
regulation with efforts to combat the Zika virus. He argued that
weakening EPA regulations would allow stronger pesticides that could kill Zikacarrying mosquitos. Such a misapprehension characterizes a GOP
agenda aimed at regulating and downsizing the EPA, a rhetoric that
could have dangerous implications for Americans. U.S. Sen. Al Franken and U.S. Sen.
Amy Klobuchar recently met with researchers and health officials to determine the
best strategy to eradicate the spread of the Zika virus. These kinds of discussions
are particularly important because they demonstrate the need for
collaboration and the importance of emergency preparedness. We
believe that congressional response to the Zika virus ought to be more
robust. It is erroneous to treat the issue of Zika lightly, especially when the virus
has the potential to harm many people. Further, the issue of public health is
Impacts
Disease Extinction
Diseases cause extinction
DUJS 9 (Dartmouth Undergraduate Jnl of Science, Spr, Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our
Fate, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/2009/05/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate/#.VyKIyjArJhE)
While
vaccines have been developed for the plague and some other infectious diseases,
new viral strains are constantly emerging a process that maintains the possibility
of a pandemic-facilitated human extinction.
the bubonic plague that killed up to one third of the European population in the mid-14th century (7).
Its the most likely existential risk checks stop all other
impacts
Harack 3/21 (Ben, staff @ Vision of the Earth, How likely is human extinction due to a natural
pandemic?, http://www.visionofearth.org/future-of-humanity/existential-risks/human-extinction-bynatural-pandemic/)
Unsurprisingly, estimates of this risk vary wildly; even expert commentators tend to be highly uncertain about the
odds. Predictions also tend to lump together several different kinds of pandemics and thus can make the future
sound much more dangerous than it really is. For example,
dangerous.
Disease Timeframe
Disease is the fastest, most probable route to extinction
Byrne 9 (Mark, On Human Survival: By Means of Reason and
Common Sense On Human Survival: By Means of Reason and Common
Sense, p. 16)
According to The World Health Report 2007, "infectious
Disease Probability
We outweigh on probability 10 million deaths ensured from
pandemics
Daschle & Klain 4/26 (Tom & Ron, former Congressman & White House Ebola Response
Coordinator in 2014-15, Daschle and Klain: We're not ready for next Zika virus,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/04/26/zika-ebola-anthrax-biothreats-preparedness-daschleklain/83548560/)
In the aftermath of the anthrax attacks of 2001, the Ebola outbreak of 2014
and now Zika, it is no longer a question of if but when the next biosecurity
threat will occur. In fact, experts believe a pandemic, not nuclear terrorism
or climate change, is most likely to cause 10 million or more deaths in a
single event.
without
proper funding, we lose the ability to effectively monitor people
infected with Zika and control the mosquitos around them, putting
their neighbors at risk.
Frieden to learn how this reduced funding would affect plans to protect us from Zika. He warned that
Florida leads the continental United States by far in Zika cases. The
175 reported so far spread among 20 counties (including three new cases Friday)
means roughly one of every four people diagnosed with Zika on the mainland lives
in the Sunshine State. And with warm, humid weather beginning to
smother the Gulf Coast and South Atlantic, experts say the threat of
a potential epidemic grows every day.
Epidemics can spread in days and weeks and the sooner that
Congress acts on Zika funding the better, a top U.S health official said on
Thursday. "We really need to make sure that Congress acts quickly," Dr.
Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said.
"Give us the money so we can work with American women and
and ultimately, with NIH in the lead, to find a vaccine to protect women," he
said during an appearance in Atlanta.
Zika Virus is a bit scarier than we initially thought. That was the warning
from a Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention spokesperson during a White
House briefing this week. It was a pretty unsettling update that made headlines
across the country, and for good reason. The virus, which is typically spread by
mosquitos, started to move quickly through Brazil last May. Since then,
thousands of people in dozens of countries have been infected by Zika, including
residents of both Indiana and Ohio who contracted the virus overseas. In fact, the
World Health Organization declared the Zika virus a global health emergency
that could infect more than 4 million people by the end of the year. And,
right now, there are no known vaccines, treatments, or rapid diagnostic
tests for the virus. Thats why Congress acted quickly this week to encourage
researchers, scientists, and pharmaceutical companies to find a cure before Zika
becomes a problem in the U.S.
Zika mutates
Balaconis 4/21
(Zoe, staff @ Romper, Why Zika Is Scarier Than You Think & Precautions Are
Necessary, https://www.romper.com/p/why-zika-is-scarier-than-you-think-precautions-are-necessary9368)
Currently, researchers are saying that mothers and their babies are most vulnerable
during the first trimester because that is when organs develop, but babies have also
been affected later in pregnancy. That 30 percent rate is incredibly scary, and
explains Brazil's and other infected countries' panic. Part of the reason
there are so many unknowns when it comes to Zika is that it is constantly
changing. According to TIME, it has multiple strains of variations and can
mutate incredibly quickly, making it difficult to combat.
for more easily transmitted viruses such as influenza, the evolution of new strains
could prove far more consequential. The simultaneous occurrence of antigenic drift (point
mutations that lead to new strains) and antigenic shift (the inter-species transfer of disease) in the influenza
virus could produce a new version of influenza for which scientists may not immediately
find a cure. Since influenza can spread quickly, this lag time could potentially lead to a global
influenza pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (9). The most recent scare of
However,
this variety came in 1918 when bird flu managed to kill over 50 million people around the world in what is
sometimes referred to as the Spanish flu pandemic. Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that
viral
strain
only 25
First, it's not just mosquito-borne; it also can be passed among humans via
sexual contact. That's alarming because an outbreak can really get rolling
when a pathogen can spread without the help of animals or insects. Because
symptoms are so mild, if present at all, many carriers of the virus may pass it along
without realizing they were infected. The more scientists learn about Zika, the worse
the news gets for the next generation. It is a factor in premature birth, blindness
and other defects in babies when their mothers are infected during pregnancy. And
the mosquito responsible for most of the spread of the infection ranges
more widely in the U.S. than thought just weeks ago: 30 states rather than just
12, including Illinois and Missouri. As the CDC's Anne Schuchat put it last week:
"This virus seems to be a bit scarier than we initially thought." Yes, it certainly is.
Zika infections are mounting quickly in the Americas (more than 800 have
been reported on U.S. turf alone, about half in Puerto Rico), and those numbers are
sure to explode once mosquito season gets going. More federal funding is
crucial to vaccine development and other programs to stop the virus'
spread.
US spread coming
Balaconis 4/21 (Zoe, staff @ Romper, Why Zika Is Scarier Than You Think & Precautions Are
Necessary, https://www.romper.com/p/why-zika-is-scarier-than-you-think-precautions-are-necessary9368)
The main reason the United States has not been more affected thus far is
because it is farther from the equator and the tropical climates where the main
carriers of Zika thrive: mosquitos. But, winter is decidedly over, and 2016 is
already seeing some record-breaking temperature highs. Soon enough,
mosquitos will swarm much of the United States, making an outbreak of
Zika very possible. All it would take is someone infected with the virus being
bitten, and then that mosquito biting someone else. Officials are predicting
outbreaks in southern, coastal areas. New Orleans is already taking
precautions to control the mosquito population this summer. According to The New
York Times, other cities at high risk include Miami, Houston, Biloxi, and Mobile.
The Blue Ribbon Study Panel observed that there is a lack of appreciation
both inside and outside the government for the extent, severity, and reality
of biological threats. But, as President Obamas National Security Council noted
in 2009, The effective dissemination of a lethal biological agent within an
unprotected population could place at risk the lives of hundreds of thousands
of people. The unmitigated consequences of such an event could overwhelm
our public health capabilities, potentially causing an untold number of
deaths. The economic cost could exceed one trillion dollars for each such
incident.
redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner 1999).
Separately, Pollins (1996) also show that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major,
medium, and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain
unknown. Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland's (1996. 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits
from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to
replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises
could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4
reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of a recession lends to amplify the
extent to which international and external conflicts self-rein force each other. (Blomberg & Hess. 2002. p. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with
an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg. Hess. & Weerapana, 2004), which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external
tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. "Diversionary theory" suggests that, when facing unpopularity
Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997), Miller (1999). and
Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the
fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided
periods of weak economic performance in the U nited States, and thus weak Presidential
are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.
"The economic cost of Zika could be very high ," said Dr. Peter Hotez, microbiologist at Texas
Children's Hospital and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. Hotez will go
before a closed session of the U.S. Senate on the morning of June 8 along with other top U.S. health officials to
present the findings of their study of Zika, which focuses on the U.S. Gulf Coast. He said he couldn't be more
specific about the potential impact of the disease until his congressional testimony. No one, including the CDC,
health insurers or those with the best handle on it, such as the Kaiser Family Foundation, seems prepared to go out
on a limb and offer an estimate on the cost -- which could end up being abominably high ... or
absurdly low. This caution is admirable, but not helpful, when you consider what's at stake. Insurance companies
estimate costs on the basis of past experience, and while Zika isn't a new virus, its probable connection with the
birth defect microcephaly in newborns (abnormally small heads) has only recently come to light. Although the
epidemic is now centered in Brazil, it's spreading around the world as the virus "hitchhikes" on migrating
mosquitoes, travelers and possibly infected blood banks. Brazil expects 2,500 cases of microcephaly this year,
according to the World Health Organization (WHO). And with the active transmission of the virus throughout at least
62 countries and territories, including the Southern U.S. and Puerto Rico, carrying with it the danger of
microcephaly for pregnant women, it's not surprising that Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell
warned that Zika "has the significant potential to affect ... the health of Americans." But no one can predict how fast
or far it will spread here. How many women in the first four to five months of pregnancy will be bitten by infected
mosquitoes or be infected by sexual partners? Research has yet to show how long the virus remains in the body or
whether the patient develops immunities after an initial bite. Due to the lag between conception and birth, and
since summer is the worst season for mosquitoes, many of these cases won't become known until fall or winter,
when "clusters" could suddenly appear, particularly in areas that lack early detection of symptoms. Fetal
abnormalities generally are detected six months after the initial infection, according to WHO. Could these
mosquitoes be largely wiped out by spraying? Right now there's no way to tell. CDC Director Dr. Thomas Frieden
described this mosquito as "a sneaky cockroach" that can lay its eggs in a bottle cap and is a blood "sipper" that
likes to bite multiple people, making it the ideal transmission vehicle. A vaccine isn't an option until 2017 at the
earliest, and it would probably be rushed with minimal testing. It's also possible that giving a vaccine to pregnant
women might do more harm than good. But two things are predictable .
Aedes aegypti
access to full-time air conditioning. In Puerto Rico, a likely hot spot for Zika this summer, estimates are that nearly
be bitten and get the virus, many of them women who won't even know it
before giving birth to a microcephalic child, depending on the quality of their medical care. If the mosquito and Zika
epidemic aren't wiped out, one estimate is that 80 percent of the island could be vulnerable. Avoiding pregnancy
until the epidemic is over is one answer, but an estimated 20 percent of those who become pregnant there are high
school girls. Preventing pregnancy in this group could prove harder than stopping Zika. Children born with
microcephaly, which has no cure, will require long-term care if they survive. Some microcephalics can live normal
lives, but most suffer from severe disabilities. And while some could die early on from complications, a vast majority
will need care throughout their lives. In insurance lingo, this is referred to as a "long-tail" loss because the extent of
the damage isn't known and is paid out over many years. For example, children with Down syndrome can live well
the lifetime
cost of care for a microcephalic child would be somewhere between $1 million and
$10 million. Some of it would be borne by parents and relatives, but most of it would require the intervention of
into their 60s. During a recent webinar for the Kaiser Family Foundation, the CDC's Frieden said
either private insurance or the public health care system. Many of these children would probably be institutionalized
for at least part of their lives. So here's the speculative -- and very speculative at that -- math. The Center for
American Progress estimates that 2 million women in the U.S. will get pregnant this summer and fall, with nearly
half of them living in areas potentially at risk of Zika. It's important to note that the public policy group's analysis
isn't based on the actual prevalence of Zika around the country, while even if the virus spreads only a fraction of
women are likely to be infected. Still, if even just one in 10 gets Zika, the CDC estimates that up to 13 percent of
their unborn offspring could develop microcephaly .
this disability
Uganda in 1999 and was, therefore, named Ug99. It is presently in Africa and parts of Asia. Because the spores are
airborne, this fungus will inevitably
progress but takes several years.
spread worldwide.