Company Update

September 26, 2016

Container Corporation (CONCOR)

Rating matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside

:
:
:
:

Buy
| 1600
12 months
19%

In long haul to create value; maintain BUY

Whats changed?
Target
EPS FY17E
EPS FY18E
Rating

Unchanged
Unchanged
Unchanged
Unchanged

Key financials
| Crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (|)

FY15
5,574
1,297
1,048
53.7

FY16
5,743
1,082
787
40.4

FY17E
6,237
1,279
909
46.6

FY18E
7,532
1,695
1,248
64.0

FY15
24.9
29.8
18.2

FY16
33.2
39.6
23.4

FY17E
28.7
34.3
19.6

FY18E
20.9
25.0
14.3

Valuation summary
P/E (x)
Target P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
P / BV (x)

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.7

RONW (%)
ROCE (%)

13.7
12.0

9.7
8.8

10.3
10.6

12.8
13.5

Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalisation (| Crore)
Total Debt (FY16) (| Crore)
Cash and Investment (FY16) (| Crore)
EV (| Crore)

Amount
26,126.0
799.9
25,326.1

52 week H/L
Equity Capital (| Crore)
Face Value (|)

1944 / 1050
195.0
10.0

Stock data
1M
18.3

Arshiya

3M
44.0

6M
24.3

12M
18.5

Container Corpn.

-4.2

-1.3

14.0

-7.0

Gateway Distr.

-7.1

-18.4

3.9

-20.1

Price Movement
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000

2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

Aug-13 Mar-14 Nov-14 Jun-15 Jan-16 Sep-16

Price (R.H.S)

| 1340

Nifty (L.H.S)

Research Analyst
Bharat Chhoda
bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com
Ankit Panchmatia
ankit.panchmatia @icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

We recently met the management of Container Corporation of India

(Concor), a market leader with ~73% market share in total container
traffic carried by Indian Railways (IR). Concor was incorporated in March
1988, by taking over seven inland container depots (ICDs) from IR. As on
FY16, it has the largest network of 64 terminals (13 - Exim, 16 - domestic
& 34 - combined). In addition to the same, Concor is on track to set up
private freight terminals and multi modal logistics parks (MMLPs) across
15 locations in India with plans to add another five over the next couple of
years. Execution of the same would position it as a multimodal transport
and logistics operator for domestic and international containerised cargo.
PFTs at Khatuwas and Nagulpally are operational and expected to scale
up in the near term. Rail freight volumes in the past few years were
negatively impacted by a number of factors. Subsidised passenger rates
were compensated by elevated freight rates. Also, implementation of port
congestion charge coupled with hike in haulage charges triggered
diversion of rail traffic to roadways. On the other hand, lower diesel prices
coupled with higher capacities led road freight rates decline in the short
haul. Realising this, IR in association with Concor embarked upon new
strategies to regain its lost market share to road. Waiver of Exim
congestion charge, input service tax credit in domestic cargo, time tabled
freight trains and expanding the commodity basket for containerisation
would enable Concor to provide rates as competitive as roads provide. In
addition to these near term triggers, commissioning of Dedicated Freight
Corridor (DFC) is expected to completely revamp the functioning of CTO
business, which would be in favour of Concor.
Volumes bottom out; set to recover from hereon
Volume growth in FY16 was impacted by a number of reasons. Exim
volumes were impacted by subdued foreign trade scenario. The year
started with a burden of 10% port congestion charge that was levied
since November 2014 as a result of a surge in import volumes.
Furthermore, consecutive hike in haulage charges resulted in uncompetitive rail freight rates vis--vis road transport. With a slew of
measures by IR volumes, Concors overall (Exim + domestic) volumes
saw a decline for four consecutive quarters, seeing a reversal in Q1FY17
with 2% YoY growth. As per the management, with Concor running time
tabled freight trains across three routes on pilot basis, initial response in
terms of volumes from the same was encouraging. Faster turnaround due
to enhanced timeliness would bring in operational efficiencies for the
company. Revival of volumes coupled with operational dexterity would
provide acceleration to Concor financials. Subsequently, we expect
revenues, PAT to grow at a CAGR of 15%, 26%, respectively, in 2016-18.
Dedicated freight corridor (DFC) soon a reality; maintain BUY
Concors recently started Khatuwas ICD is strategically located to cater to
west coast ports, including Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT), Pipavav,
Mundra and Hazira. Consequently, the management expects a lot of local
cargo from adjoining manufacturing hubs, earlier carried by road or other
rail operators to shift to the ICD. With a threefold increase in capex to
| 8600 crore in FY16 from | 2800 crore in FY15, the work at the DFC has
accelerated. Speedy construction of DFC structurally augurs well for
Concors future earnings. Given these multiple triggers, we continue to
value Concor at a P/E of 25x FY18E earnings of | 64. We maintain BUY
recommendation with a target price of | 1600.

Company Analysis
Infrastructure superiority outpaces competitors
Concors network of 64 terminals (mostly rail-linked) gives it a
commanding position in the industry. Land for its container terminals has
been acquired on long-term lease from Indian Railways (IR) while its
terminals are strategically located along the key container-transporting
corridors. In addition to the same, to strengthen and improve its service
levels, Concor over FY16 has purchased additional 360 BLC wagons,
increasing its holding of high speed wagons to 12,114. Subsequently,
total wagons (BLC+BLL+BFKN+BVZI) for Concor were at 13,471 as on
FY16. The company also leverages additional wagon requirements by
leasing additional 7473 wagons. Furthermore, Concor also owns 52 reach
stackers and 16 gantry cranes. Concor manages 298 of which 88.6% are
high speed. With a fairly large infrastructure base of rolling stock, the
company handles ~73.25% i.e. 33.4 MMT (3 million TEUs) in FY16.
Exhibit 1: Pan-India presence of 64 terminals; new terminals/MMLPs proposed around DFC

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

To further strengthen its competency, Concor has planned a capex of

| 6000 crore. Out of the same, | 1300 crore and | 1700 crore would be
utilised for land and rolling stock acquisition, respectively. Majority of the
same ~| 2700 crore is allocated towards terminal developments for
MMLPs, which have been planned across DFC.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Dedicated Freight Corridor - FY19 seems to be reality

Dedicated freight corridors proposed by Indian Railways are expected to
bring in significant improvement in the way freight business is carried out.
By modifying basic design features, IR is expected to double its existing
carrying capacity by withstanding heavier loads at higher speeds.
Furthermore, with enlarged infrastructure, the DFC would optimise
productive use with upgraded dimensions of the rolling stock, which
would enable longer and heavier trains to ply on the same. The total
project cost is approximately | 81000 crore, out of which | 13000 crore
pertains to land; | 20000 crore relates to interest during construction
(IDC) and | 48000 crore towards civil and engineering.
Exhibit 2: Benefits of dedicated freight corridor)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

DFCCIL has accelerated its development around Western and Eastern

DFC. It has addressed key issues of land acquisition, especially for
western DFC (WDFC), and expects to have full land under control by
Q1FY17 (87% now). With the use of automatic track laying machines on
dedicated freight corridors the work is expected to get expedited on
freight corridors. Subsequently, it aims to lay around 6000 km of tracks
using these new machines. Contracts worth | 37000 crore are already
awarded and balance contracts of | 11000 crore are expected by Q4FY17.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Revenue visibility concrete post commencement of MMLPs

Concors revenues grew at a CAGR of 8.5% in FY11-16 as container
volumes remained sluggish, except 2014. However, going ahead, with an
improved market share in private ports such as Mundra and Gujarat
Pipavav we expect volumes to improve. Further, we believe the
governments Make in India campaign will perk up trade volumes for
exports. In turn, we expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 15% in FY1518E. Even on the EBITDA front, we expect Concor to post a CAGR of
~25% in FY16-17E vis--vis CAGR of ~7% in FY11-16. As EBITDA
margins have remained under pressure over the years due to a steep
increase in freight rates by railways, going forward, we believe hikes will
pause, thereby allowing the company to stabilise its margins. Also,
introduction of double stacking and hub and spoke model for its
operations is expected to provide further scope to improve margins (in
the range of 22% to 23%) in future. Further, introduction of PFTs is
expected to improve earnings of the company in future. Consequently,
PAT is also expected to post a CAGR of ~26% in FY15-18E against 6% in
FY11-16.
Exhibit 3: Proposed Concor terminals on western corridor

Source: Company website, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Robust revenue growth with increasing share of Exim

Concors revenues grew at a CAGR of 8.5% in FY11-16 as container
volumes remained sluggish. However, going ahead, with an improved
market share in private ports such as Mundra and Gujarat Pipavav we
expect volumes to improve. Further, we believe the governments Make
in India campaign will perk up trade volumes for exports. In turn, this will
drive higher volumes for Concor.
Exhibit 4: Revenue expected to grow at CAGR of 15% in FY16-18E

Revenue

8000.0
7000.0
6000.0

4984.6

4445.0

5000.0

7532.3

5573.7

5742.6

FY15

FY16

6236.7

4000.0
3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
FY13

FY14

FY17E

FY18E

Revenue

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exim volume growth shows traction

Exim volumes form ~85% of Concors total revenues. Exim volumes
registered a CAGR of ~7% in FY10-15 with FY15 witnessing robust
growth of ~12% YoY. However, imposition of port congestion charge
and hike in haulage charges resulted in a dampener for Concor volumes,
which de-grew 6% YoY. During the quarter, a variety of Indian rail
initiatives like running time tabled freight trains, abolition of port
congestion charges resulted tightened rail competitiveness over road.
Post four consecutive quarters of de-growth in Exim volumes, Concors
Exim volumes for Q1FY17 grew 3% YoY, indicating a reversal. The
companys port wise share was at 38% at JNPT, 28.3% at Mundra, 17.6%
at Pipavav and 6.3% at other ports. Going ahead, we expect Exim
volumes of Concor to grow at a CAGR of 6.6% in FY16-18E. Newer ports
coupled with better efficiency at private ports would support the growth
rationale.
Exhibit 5: Exim container volume
3,000
2,500

1,500

2,680

2,814
FY18E

2,476
FY16

FY17E

2,640

632
Q1FY17

FY15

614
Q4FY16

2,361

600
Q3FY16

FY14

648
Q2FY16

2,152

614
Q1FY16

FY13

647
Q4FY15

2,136

665
Q3FY15

FY12

676

Q2FY15

500

632

1,000

Q1FY15

000 TEUs

2,000

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Domestic volume expected to pick up, after sluggish FY16

Over FY11-16, domestic cargo volumes had been a laggard and de-grew
at a CAGR of 3%. However, we believe in FY16-18E these volumes would
see a revival on the back of competitive pricing from roadways. Following
the lower base impact, we expect domestic volumes to grow at a CAGR
of 17% over the same period. The same would be accompanied by
improvement in handling and inter port transfers.
Exhibit 6: Domestic container volume
700
600
400
300
115

118

108

104

111

125

103

468

434

507

489

448

479

Q3FY15

Q4FY15

Q1FY16

Q2FY16

Q3FY16

Q4FY16

Q1FY17

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

621

121
Q2FY15

FY18E

135

Q1FY15

100

146

200

Q4FY14

000 TEUs

500

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Margins to perk up on back of operational leverage

As EBITDA margins have remained under pressure over the years due to
a steep increase in freight rates by railways, going forward, we believe
hikes will pause, thereby allowing the company to stabilise its margins.
Also, introduction of double stacking and hub and spoke model for its
operations is expected to provide further scope to improve margins (in
the range of 23-25%) in future. Further, introduction of PFTs is expected
to improve the earnings of the company in future.
Exhibit 7: Lower empties, increased utilisation to improve margins
1800.0

23.6

1600.0

25.0

23.3

22.1

1400.0

22.5

20.5

18.8

20.0

1200.0

15.0

1000.0
800.0

10.0
1081.5

1278.5

1694.8

0.0

1296.5

200.0

1101.9

400.0

1049.5

600.0

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

EBITDA

5.0
0.0

EBITDA Margins

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

Given the improving fundamentals, PAT is expected to post a CAGR of

26% in FY16-18E against 7% in FY11-16.
Exhibit 8: Robust topline growth & improved margins to lead
1400.0

64.0

1200.0
1000.0

53.7

50.5

47.7

60.0
50.0

46.6
40.4

800.0

70.0

40.0

1248.4

0.0

909.2

200.0

786.9

20.0
1047.7

400.0
984.8

30.0

930.6

600.0

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

PAT

10.0
0.0

EPS

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Increasing profitability to result in improved return ratio profile

Return ratios were subdued in the past due to subdued profitability.
However, with the robust performance in expected over FY16-18E, RoE &
RoCE are expected at 13% & 13.5%, respectively.
Exhibit 9: Return ratios profile
25.0%

20.0%
15.6%

20.0%

20.9%

14.1%

13.7%

15.0%

12.8%
9.7%

13.0%

10.0%

8.8%

5.0%

10.3%
13.5%

12.0%

15.0%

10.6%

10.0%
5.0%

0.0%

0.0%
FY13

FY14

FY15
RoCE

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

RoE

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

Outlook and valuation

In 1999-2007, Concor registered robust growth with revenues posting a
CAGR of 21% along with EBITDA and PAT also posting CAGR of ~22%
over the same period. However, post the financial crisis of 2008, Concor
also faced the severe brunt and has been trying to recover its growth with
revenue CAGR of ~7% in 2008-15. EBITDA posted nominal growth of 3%
and PAT of 4% CAGR during the same period. The decline in growth rate
can be attributed to the sluggish economic conditions; growing
competition from roadways/new entrants in CTO and incessant fuel price
hikes. As a result, the average EBITDA margin declined from 29% in 19992007 to 25% in 2008-14 with the lowest margin in FY14 of 21.1%. Going
ahead, with FDI in rail and projects such as dedicated freight corridor and
goods and services tax (GST) on the priority list of the government, we
anticipate Concors growth and margins will recover at a faster pace.
Consequently, we envisage revenue CAGR of ~15% over FY16-18E. This
is expected to be followed by a gradual restoration of EBITDA margin to
23% over FY16-18E. Hence, this may lead to EBITDA and PAT CAGR of
25% each over the same period, respectively.
As GST and DFC are expected to roll out in FY17 and FY19, the near term
volume growth for Concor is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8% over
FY16-18E, thereby leading to revenue & earnings CAGR of 15% each in
the same period. Also, PFTs becoming operational in due course of time
are expected to add another revenue line for Concor. Further, any near
term risk of adverse freight rate movement is expected to be mitigated by
higher Exim volume generation. Accounting for the weakness in the
current quarter, we have tapered our FY17 estimates. However, we
expect the company to positively surprise in FY18, thereby maintaining
the estimates of FY18. With a strong balance sheet and superior cash flow
we continue to assign P/E multiple of 25x FY18E EPS of | 64 to arrive at a
target price of | 1600. We maintain BUY recommendation on the stock.
Exhibit 10: PE trend

Close -Unit Curr

10.0 X

15.0 X

20.0 X

25.0 X

Sep-16

Feb-16

Jul-15

Dec-14

May-14

Oct-13

Mar-13

Aug-12

Jan-12

Jun-11

Nov-10

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

30.0 X

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 8

Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Revenue
Growth (%)
Terminal/Other Service charge
Employee Cost
Administrative & other exp.
Op. Expenditure
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Growth (%)
Tax
Reported PAT
Growth (%)
Adjustments
Adj. Net Profit

| Crore
FY15
5,573.7
11.8
3,830.8
157.9
288.5
4,277.2
1,296.5
17.7
372.7
923.8
0.0
370.7
1,294.6
0.8
246.9
1,047.7
6.4
0.0
1,047.7

FY16
5,742.6
3.0
4,210.5
153.9
296.7
4,661.0
1,081.5
-16.6
364.6
716.9
0.0
344.7
1,061.6
-18.0
274.0
787.6
-24.8
0.0
786.9

FY17E
6,236.7
8.6
4,490.4
155.9
311.8
4,958.2
1,278.5
18.2
333.1
945.4
0.0
279.9
1,225.4
15.4
316.1
909.2
15.4
0.0
909.2

FY18E
7,532.3
20.8
5,272.6
188.3
376.6
5,837.5
1,694.8
32.6
375.9
1,318.8
0.0
352.4
1,671.2
36.4
422.8
1,248.4
37.3
0.0
1,248.4

Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)
Profit after Tax
Add: Depreciation
Add: Others
Cash Profit
Increase/(Decrease) in CL
(Increase)/Decrease in CA
CF from Operating Activities
Purchase of Fixed Assets
(Inc)/Dec in Investments
Others
CF from Investing Activities
Inc/(Dec) in Loan Funds
Inc/(Dec) in Sh. Cap. & Res.
Others
CF from financing activities
Change in cash Eq.
Op. Cash and cash Eq.
Cl. Cash and cash Eq.

| Crore
FY15
1,047.7
372.7
354.4
1,774.8
(75.3)
11.4
1,710.9
(597.5)
(756.5)

FY16
786.9
364.6
50.6
1,202.1
(12.3)
(48.5)
1,141.3
(646.6)
(2,046.7)

FY17E
909.2
333.1
(368.6)
873.7
(34.4)
9.7
849.0
(916.0)
625.3

FY18E
1,248.4
375.9
(817.9)
806.4
(173.9)
13.5
646.0
600.2

(1,354.0)
(314.0)
(314.0)
42.8
2,545.1
2,587.9

(2,693.3)
(236.1)
(236.1)
(1,788.1)
2,587.9
799.9

(290.7)
51.3
(272.8)
(221.5)
336.9
799.9
1,136.7

600.2
10.6
(374.5)
(363.9)
882.3
1,136.7
2,019.1

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

391.6
132.7
53.7
72.9
13.4

415.7
41.0
40.4
59.1
10.1

453.6
58.3
46.6
63.7
11.7

498.4
103.6
64.0
83.3
16.0

23.3
18.8
1.6
1.1
2.4
42.2

18.8
13.7
1.5
1.1
2.4
42.0

20.5
14.6
1.4
1.5
2.3
38.0

22.5
16.6
1.5
1.5
2.3
38.0

13.7
12.0
23.7

9.7
8.8
12.0

10.3
10.6
15.0

12.8
13.5
17.1

24.9
3.4
18.2
4.2

33.2
3.2
23.4
4.4

28.7
3.0
19.6
4.0

20.9
2.7
14.3
3.2

0.0
NA
0.0
3.7
3.6

0.0
NA
0.0
1.3
1.3

0.0
NA
0.0
2.1
2.1

0.0
NA
0.0
2.7
2.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet

| Crore

(Year-end March)
Source of Funds
Equity Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Shareholder's Fund
Minority Interest
Loan Funds
Deferred Tax Liability
Provisions
Source of Funds

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

195.0
7,440.7
7,635.7
0.0
0.0
206.7
57.0
7,899.4

195.0
7,910.9
8,105.8
0.0
0.0
196.5
83.3
8,385.6

195.0
8,649.2
8,844.1
0.0
0.0
206.5
83.3
9,133.9

195.0
9,523.1
9,718.0
0.0
0.0
216.5
83.3
10,017.8

Application of Funds
Gross Block
Less: Acc. Depreciation
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
Investments
Inventories
Debtor
Cash
Loan & Advance, Other CA
Total Current assets
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Total CL and Provisions
Net Working Capital
Application of Funds

5,399.1
1,856.6
3,542.5
0.0
3,542.5
2,252.7
16.8
36.6
2,587.9
253.5
2,894.8
644.0
146.6
790.5
2,104.3
7,899.4

6,045.7
2,221.2
3,824.5
0.0
3,824.5
4,299.3
17.7
37.5
799.9
209.5
1,064.6
660.3
142.6
802.9
261.8
8,385.6

7,051.6
2,554.3
4,497.3
0.0
4,497.3
3,674.0
25.6
39.3
1,136.7
649.4
1,851.1
649.3
239.2
888.5
962.5
9,133.9

8,095.4
2,930.2
5,165.1
0.0
5,165.1
3,073.8
31.0
47.5
2,019.1
754.5
2,851.9
784.2
288.9
1,073.1
1,778.8
10,017.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
Book Value
Cash per share
EPS
Cash EPS
DPS
Profitability & Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT Margin (%)
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory Turnover (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Current Liabilities (Days)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios (x)
PE
Price to Book Value
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Leverage & Solvency Ratios
Debt to equity (x)
Interest Coverage (x)
Debt to EBITDA (x)
Current Ratio
Quick ratio

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 9

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Bharat Chhoda, MBA and Ankit Panchmatia, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately
reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this
report.

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and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts
and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
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It is confirmed that Bharat Chhoda, MBA and Ankit Panchmatia, MBA, Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding
twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
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