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Dun & Bradstreet U.S.

Economic Health Tracker


A multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy
SEPTEMBER 2016

W W W. D N B . C O M / T R A C K E R

Small Business Health Index: Overall

S M A L L B U S I N E S S H E A LT H I N D E X
120

PAY M E N T
DELINQUENCY

0.7
points
CREDIT CARD
DELINQUENCY

100

80

CREDIT CARD
USE

1.8%
1.4%
0.1%

60
12/04 12/06 12/08 12/10

7/16

Source: Dun & Bradstreet

US
U . SJobs
. J OHealth:
B S H E AOverall
LT H
300000

Dun & Bradstreets Small Business Health Index has dropped 0.7
points during the latest reporting period. The index stands at 91.8
points, the lowest level since October 2014. The Y/Y pace continued
to be negative and has declined for nine consecutive months.

M A N U FA C T U R I N G

R E TA I L

R E A L E S TAT E

BUSINESS
SERVICES

CONSTRUCTION

TRADE,
T R A N S P O R TAT I O N
& UTILITIES

182,000

260000

220000

180000

140000
Mar '16

Apr '16

Source: Dun & Bradstreet

May '16 June '16 July '16

Aug '16

Dun & Bradstreet estimates the U.S. labor market to add about
182,000 jobs to the nonfarm payrolls in August 2016. Although
the unemployment rate shows a sufficiently strong recovery, other
indicators of labor market health (such as the labor force participation
rate or wage growth) leaves continued room for improvement.

SEPTEMBER 2016
US Business
Health Index: Overall

W W W. D N B . C O M / T R A C K E R

U . S . O V E R A L L B U S I N E S S H E A LT H I N D E X
55

TOTAL INDEX VALUE


54.2

LOW RISK

0.2%
Y/Y

NEUTRAL

50

HOW TO READ
T H I S I N D I C AT O R :
A reading of 50%
represents neutral.
A reading of more
than 50% reflects
generally lower risk
and a reading of less
than 50% reflects
generally higher risk.

VIABILITY

DELINQUENCY

2.2%
1.0%

HIGH RISK

45
Feb' 12

Jan '13

Jul '16

T O TA L L O S S

Source: Dun & Bradstreet

2.1%

Business fundamentals continue to weaken amongst all-active and open US firms as


the Overall Business Health Index declined 0.7% during July from June. Conditions
have weakened for four consecutive months.

PERSPECTIVES
This month, Dun & Bradstreets proprietary indicators are unable to provide any enthusiasm for the outlook for small
business performance in the U.S. during the second half of 2016, or that of the economy as a whole. Only a handful
of sectors like Business Services or Construction help to maintain a faint air of optimism with scattered and meager
improvements.
Labor market performance does provide some silver lining, but remains limited to the broad-based metrics. With this
months report being one of the only three reports before Election Day and the prospect of the Feds raising rates getting
stronger, the importance of the labor market performance continues to grow. Meanwhile, overall aggregate business
fundamentals have weakened in 2016 and the trend continues to worsen. Each successive move down means businesses
are recording less fundamental strength and resiliency.

METHODOLOGY
The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through payment patterns and credit use. U.S.
Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment.
The U.S. Overall Business Health Index provides a year-over-year weighted average of Dun & Bradstreets Viability Score, Delinquency
Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all
businesses recording low levels of risk). Report based on data available as of August 27, 2016.

To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker


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