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RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO:
FROM:
DATE:
October 4, 2016
RE:
Over the past two months, Gottheimers name recognition has increased
from 34% to 63%, and voters now give him a 2-to-1 positive rating (30%
favorable, 14% unfavorable). Garretts image, however, is now under water,
with 35% of voters viewing him unfavorably, compared to 32% who view
him favorably (By contrast, his rating was 32% favorable, 24% unfavorable
back in April, before the campaigns were truly under way.) And nearly half
(49%) say its time to make a change and elect someone else, compared to
only 31% who want to reelect Garrett.
Although the environment at the top of the ticket has not changed
meaningfully in recent months (we found Clinton with a 5-point lead in
August, compared to a 7-point lead today), the trial heat for Congress has
nearly flipped. In early August, 50% of voters said they were supporting
Congressman Garrett, compared to 42% for Gottheimer. Today, however,
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Whats more, 35% of voters tell us what they have been hearing and seeing
about Garrett over the past few weeks has made them less favorable toward
him, compared to only 20% who say they are feeling more favorable. And
even in this cluttered media market, more than half of voters (51%) report
having seen ads or received mail opposing Scott Garrett.
When asked open-ended about some of the things they have been seeing,
46% volunteer something negative about Garrett, while just 17% volunteer
something positive about him. This includes 17% who mention Garretts
racism, bigotry, or anti-LGBT attitudes, and another 11% who mention his
vote against health care for 9/11 first responders.
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