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G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP

1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW


Washington, DC 20009
Tel: (202) 234 -5570
Fax: (202) 232 -8134
www.hartresearch.com

MEMORANDUM
TO:

House Majority PAC

FROM:

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group

DATE:

October 4, 2016

RE:

Recent Tracking Survey in New Jerseys 5th CD

From September 30 to October 2, 2016, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey


among 401 likely 2016 voters in New Jerseys 5th CD. The sample, which is
representative of a likely November 2016 electorate, has a margin of error of 5
percentage points.
Our survey findings indicate thatin a district where it is notoriously hard
to break throughDemocratic challenger Josh Gottheimer is in a markedly
improved position since the start of this campaign, while voters have
clearly been exposed to (and are taking seriously) negative information on
Republican incumbent Scott Garrett. This has translated into a tremendous
turnaround in the trial heat for Congress: from a 19-point lead for Garrett
in April, to an 8-point lead for Garrett in August, to a 7-point lead for
Gottheimer today.
Our poll points to many encouraging signs for Democrat Josh Gottheimer as we
head into the home stretch toward the November election:

Over the past two months, Gottheimers name recognition has increased
from 34% to 63%, and voters now give him a 2-to-1 positive rating (30%
favorable, 14% unfavorable). Garretts image, however, is now under water,
with 35% of voters viewing him unfavorably, compared to 32% who view
him favorably (By contrast, his rating was 32% favorable, 24% unfavorable
back in April, before the campaigns were truly under way.) And nearly half
(49%) say its time to make a change and elect someone else, compared to
only 31% who want to reelect Garrett.

Although the environment at the top of the ticket has not changed
meaningfully in recent months (we found Clinton with a 5-point lead in
August, compared to a 7-point lead today), the trial heat for Congress has
nearly flipped. In early August, 50% of voters said they were supporting
Congressman Garrett, compared to 42% for Gottheimer. Today, however,
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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP


48% of voters tell us they are voting for Gottheimer, compared to 41% for
Garrett. Notably, the race has moved significantly since back in April, when
Garrett was besting his challenger by 19 points (52% Garrett, 33%
Gottheimer).

Whats more, 35% of voters tell us what they have been hearing and seeing
about Garrett over the past few weeks has made them less favorable toward
him, compared to only 20% who say they are feeling more favorable. And
even in this cluttered media market, more than half of voters (51%) report
having seen ads or received mail opposing Scott Garrett.

When asked open-ended about some of the things they have been seeing,
46% volunteer something negative about Garrett, while just 17% volunteer
something positive about him. This includes 17% who mention Garretts
racism, bigotry, or anti-LGBT attitudes, and another 11% who mention his
vote against health care for 9/11 first responders.

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